My Thoughts
Two sides heading into this one on somewhat different form: Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 games, with Lee Bowyer showing the kind of form that once got him an England cap, and Joe Hart proving to be something of a revelation in goals, with 6 clean sheets to his name so far this season. Indeed' Alex Mcleish's side will go 6th if they win this one. Blackburn, meanwhile, have not won in their last 4 league games, and have scored a grand total of 0 goals in that run. They are also hampered by the abscence of David Dunn for this match. Rovers' record away from Ewood Park so far this season is a dismal 1-1-6, while Birmingham's 4-2-2 at home is respectable.
The Verdict
Everything points to a home win in this one, and this pundit can't argue against that. Birmingham are solid, compact, and have experience in the middle of the park, with the lively Chucho Benitez adapting nicely to the Premier League. It says a lot about Blackburn's form so far that many people are talking about goalkeeper Paul Robinson as a contender for the England World Cup squad, despite conceding an average of 2.62 goals per away game.
The Bet
Birmingham are outstanding value at 11/10 with William Hill. Apart from that, other bets to consider would be Benitez, James McFadden or dead-ball expert Sebastian Larsson to score anytime
Tuesday 15 December 2009
Friday 11 December 2009
Stoke v Wigan Odds
As promised, here are the odds from the Stoke v Wigan game:
Stoke to win outright: best price 6/5 with Coral
Under 2.5 goals: best price 4/6 general
Stoke to win outright: best price 6/5 with Coral
Under 2.5 goals: best price 4/6 general
Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure: The Review Part 2
5:20pm
Shifty and Graeme arrive, ravenous, at Harry Ramsden's. Graeme orders himself fish and chips, while Shifty inexplicably orders something other than chips and bread and butter by going for the battered chicken. The global effects of this shock decision are still being felt to this very day- rumour has it that, before Shifty's order was placed, the Nobel Peace Prize was set to be awarded to Ian Huntley.
6:20pm
Full up and raring to go the boys nailed down to the ground. Usual sightseeing faire. Graeme bought a rather fetching hat from the clubshop. Some photos under the Sir Matt Busby statue and enjoying the general atmosphere which was laced with jubilant Scouser bashing. Much to Graeme's dismay there is an alcohol ban at European games, so with an expectant crowd and a cup of tea Shifty and Graeme climbed the steps to take their seats, in the Theatre of Dreams.
7:40pm
Another couple of photos were taken (have a butcher's at Graeme's hat) before the teams emerged to the spine-tingling Handel's Zadok the Priest, better known as the Champions League anthem. And then a young Manchester United side were underway!
8:05pm
Effing Ben Foster! He's 3rd choice for a reason
8:30pm
Half-time. In the absence of the availability of a half-time beer, Shifty and Graeme prefer to chill (quite literally- it was freezing!) in their seats
9:35pm
Full-time. Disappointing result. Shifty and Graeme make a smooth escape from the ground and board the bus back to the hotel room to "freshen up" before a night on the town.
10:45pm
Bus into Piccadilly Gardens (where all them mad huns kicked off ken'). Empty aside from one drunk homeless Scottish guy shouting at a parked car. First pub, nice environment, can't remember the name but had decent pintage and a tpb (tasty Polish barmaid). Every pub needs one.
11.30pm
It's raining cat's dogs and few other animals, the boys go for a dawnder. Much to Shifty's dismay (there's been an awful lot of that on this trip, hasn't there?), the two bloggers are directed to Manchester's gay village. Graeme finds this amusing, and has a great time. Shifty's mood brightens up after a Sex on the Beach.
2:30am
3 gay bars, 6 cocktails and a trip to the casino later, Shifty and Graeme find themselves in a karaoke bar, surrounded by Chinese students singing Girls Just Wanna Have Fun. Both come to the conclusion that this means hometime, and return to the hotel.
7:00am
Shifty wakes up for breakfast, works his way into the bathroom only to discover Graeme fast asleep and up to his neck in lukewarm bathwater. Good Night all round.
9:40am
Shifty and Graeme leave the hotel after a hearty all-you-can-eat breakfast, and make their way to the train station, for the long journey home.
Here are those photos, then:
Stoke City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 12th December
My Thoughts
When the TV head honchos got hold of the fixture list at the start of this season, and were told to pick what games they wanted to show, it's difficult to imagine this game jumping off the list. Yet this game will be the lunchtime game tomorrow, which may (or may not) tempt this pundit to head for the pub. The recent fallout between the (allegedly) nude Stoke boss Tony Pulis and his star centre-forward James Beattie offers an interesting subplot to a match which should feature something of a clash of styles: Stoke's direct, physical approach has been well-documented, while under Roberto Martinez, Wigan play (or at least attempt to) a fluid 4-2-31 system, with lots of short, neat passing serving their angry, powerful and sometimes brilliant frontman Hugo Rodallega.
The Verdict
'Tis true that neither side goes into this one in the best of form: Stoke have just one win in their last 5 (and even that was at home to bottom side Portsmouth, who also had a penalty saved). WIgan also have just 1 win in 5, and their recent run also happens to include a 9-1 horsing away at Spurs. Add to that their poor away record in the league this season (2-0-5) and the likely abscences of midfield enforcer Hendry Thomas and goalkeeper Chris Kirkland, this pundit reckons that Stoke will edge this one.
The Bet
Stoke have scored just 13 goals in the league this season, the lowest total in the league, and despite Wigan's porous defence, it's difficult to see this one being full of goals, particularly given Stoke's decent defensive record (conceded 17 in the league this season). Therefore, this pundit will be backing Stoke outright, as well as having a look at under 2.5 goals (prices to follow this evening, I'm at work).
When the TV head honchos got hold of the fixture list at the start of this season, and were told to pick what games they wanted to show, it's difficult to imagine this game jumping off the list. Yet this game will be the lunchtime game tomorrow, which may (or may not) tempt this pundit to head for the pub. The recent fallout between the (allegedly) nude Stoke boss Tony Pulis and his star centre-forward James Beattie offers an interesting subplot to a match which should feature something of a clash of styles: Stoke's direct, physical approach has been well-documented, while under Roberto Martinez, Wigan play (or at least attempt to) a fluid 4-2-31 system, with lots of short, neat passing serving their angry, powerful and sometimes brilliant frontman Hugo Rodallega.
The Verdict
'Tis true that neither side goes into this one in the best of form: Stoke have just one win in their last 5 (and even that was at home to bottom side Portsmouth, who also had a penalty saved). WIgan also have just 1 win in 5, and their recent run also happens to include a 9-1 horsing away at Spurs. Add to that their poor away record in the league this season (2-0-5) and the likely abscences of midfield enforcer Hendry Thomas and goalkeeper Chris Kirkland, this pundit reckons that Stoke will edge this one.
The Bet
Stoke have scored just 13 goals in the league this season, the lowest total in the league, and despite Wigan's porous defence, it's difficult to see this one being full of goals, particularly given Stoke's decent defensive record (conceded 17 in the league this season). Therefore, this pundit will be backing Stoke outright, as well as having a look at under 2.5 goals (prices to follow this evening, I'm at work).
Thursday 10 December 2009
Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure: The Review
Now that Shifty has recovered following a bully evening out, and the £50 million required for Graeme's bail has been paid, these two intrepid pundits can finally tell the story of Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure:
Wednesday, 25th November: 7:30am
Shifty wakes up. Immediately texts Graeme, fearing that he may have slept in. Turns out Graeme has been up for hours, drinking tea and watching childrens' television
8:30am
Shifty and Graeme meet at Stirling Train Station. Shifty is wet and cold. Graeme has a sausage roll and a huge cup of tea. Shifty opts for a smaller cup of tea. All aboard the 08:44 Stirling to Glasgow Queen Street!
9:15am
The train rolls into Glasgow Queen Street. As their train to Manchestoh does not depart until 10:10am, Graeme suggests a trip to the Apple store. After in-depth discussion about how opening an Apple store in Aberdeen dilutes the Apple brand value somewhat, they discover that the store is closed. After falling off a lorry, a giant ball, not dissimilar to the orb that tends to be portrayed in sci-fi films, nearly kills Shifty and Graeme in broad daylight, in the middle of Buchanan Street.
9:40am
Shifty and Graeme get sandwiches at Glasgow Central Station, providing Graeme with the first photo opportunity of the day (photo 1 on the photo post, which will follow).
9:55am
Shifty and Graeme board the 10:10 to Manchester Airport. Much to Shifty's dismay, a couple of no-good hoodlums are in Shifty and Graeme's reserved seats. Fortunately, Graeme intervenes, and finds a table elsewhere on the train, and they settle in for the journey.
11:00am
The journey provides another couple of photo opportunities, with both pundits taking a picture of their reading material for the journey (photos 2 and 3 on the photo post).
12:45pm
Much to the dismay of the train passengers, an announcement comes on that the rear 3 carriages of the train (where Shifty and Graeme are located) will be taken out of service at the next stop, Preston. At Preston, cue a mad dash for seats at the front of the train. Shifty courageously ducks and dives through the crowds and finds a twosie (two seats next to each other) free for himself and Graeme. Result. At this point, the two bloggers hear the shrill of 14 half-cut Dundonian nurses, cackling and reeking of their 4 pints of Somerfield own brand wine. Graeme chats them up.
1:25pm
Shifty and Graeme arrive at Manchester Oxford Road station and expertly negotiate the route to their hotel. Much to Shifty's dismay (and Graeme's delight) they find themselves booked into a double room- mercifully for Shifty, a very pleasant young lady wishes to swap rooms, and the two bloggers are spared the prospect of spending the night in the same bed. On arriving in the hotel room, they take another couple of photos (photos 4 and 5) and have a cup of tea while watching Scrubs.
3:30pm
Shifty and Graeme go for a dawnder around town, and admire the sights of Piccadilly Gardens, where the Rangers fans all kicked off last time. They partake in the consumption of a couple of pints in a Wetherspoon's (photos 6 and 7) before boarding the number 256 bus, and heading off to the match!
Keep checking back for the photos, and an update on how the Harry Ramsden's went!
Wednesday, 25th November: 7:30am
Shifty wakes up. Immediately texts Graeme, fearing that he may have slept in. Turns out Graeme has been up for hours, drinking tea and watching childrens' television
8:30am
Shifty and Graeme meet at Stirling Train Station. Shifty is wet and cold. Graeme has a sausage roll and a huge cup of tea. Shifty opts for a smaller cup of tea. All aboard the 08:44 Stirling to Glasgow Queen Street!
9:15am
The train rolls into Glasgow Queen Street. As their train to Manchestoh does not depart until 10:10am, Graeme suggests a trip to the Apple store. After in-depth discussion about how opening an Apple store in Aberdeen dilutes the Apple brand value somewhat, they discover that the store is closed. After falling off a lorry, a giant ball, not dissimilar to the orb that tends to be portrayed in sci-fi films, nearly kills Shifty and Graeme in broad daylight, in the middle of Buchanan Street.
9:40am
Shifty and Graeme get sandwiches at Glasgow Central Station, providing Graeme with the first photo opportunity of the day (photo 1 on the photo post, which will follow).
9:55am
Shifty and Graeme board the 10:10 to Manchester Airport. Much to Shifty's dismay, a couple of no-good hoodlums are in Shifty and Graeme's reserved seats. Fortunately, Graeme intervenes, and finds a table elsewhere on the train, and they settle in for the journey.
11:00am
The journey provides another couple of photo opportunities, with both pundits taking a picture of their reading material for the journey (photos 2 and 3 on the photo post).
12:45pm
Much to the dismay of the train passengers, an announcement comes on that the rear 3 carriages of the train (where Shifty and Graeme are located) will be taken out of service at the next stop, Preston. At Preston, cue a mad dash for seats at the front of the train. Shifty courageously ducks and dives through the crowds and finds a twosie (two seats next to each other) free for himself and Graeme. Result. At this point, the two bloggers hear the shrill of 14 half-cut Dundonian nurses, cackling and reeking of their 4 pints of Somerfield own brand wine. Graeme chats them up.
1:25pm
Shifty and Graeme arrive at Manchester Oxford Road station and expertly negotiate the route to their hotel. Much to Shifty's dismay (and Graeme's delight) they find themselves booked into a double room- mercifully for Shifty, a very pleasant young lady wishes to swap rooms, and the two bloggers are spared the prospect of spending the night in the same bed. On arriving in the hotel room, they take another couple of photos (photos 4 and 5) and have a cup of tea while watching Scrubs.
3:30pm
Shifty and Graeme go for a dawnder around town, and admire the sights of Piccadilly Gardens, where the Rangers fans all kicked off last time. They partake in the consumption of a couple of pints in a Wetherspoon's (photos 6 and 7) before boarding the number 256 bus, and heading off to the match!
Keep checking back for the photos, and an update on how the Harry Ramsden's went!
Tuesday 24 November 2009
Man Utd v Besiktas, Wednesday 25th November
My Thoughts
This must surely be the most eagerly-anticipated game that has ever been written up on this here blog. Not just for the match itself (already-qualified Man Utd face almost-out Besiktas), but because this game is the centrepoint of Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure, which will see this here blog's intrepid pundits take in this match (preceded by a big sit-in meal in Harry Ramsdens), followed by a night of light revelry in Manchester.
As for the match itself, with qualification to the last 16 already secured (unlike some), United boss Sir Alex Ferguson will most likely make a few changes to his side- expect either Tomasz Kuszszak or Ben(ny Hill) Foster to start in goals, Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan (but not Zoran Tosic- he wasn't included in United's Champions League squad) to start in midfield, and perhaps a place in attack for either Federico Macheda or Danny Welbeck.
The Verdict
Shifty and Graeme will, by the end of Wednesday, be quite merry, having enjoyed a few light shandies. Oh wait, that's probably not the verdict y'all wanted to hear. Despite the likelihood of changes, United should still field a strong starting 11 and, given Besiktas' poor away form (they conceded 8 on their last trip to the UK), United should edge this one. K Stand, about 1/3rd of the way up, midway along, if you want to keep an eye out for Shifty and Graeme
The Bet
As previously stated, Darron Gibson is a likely starter. He has a beast of a shot on him (witness his goal against Hull last season), and can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 15/2 with Paddy Power. Otherwise, if you fancy a cheeky correct score bet, how about 2-1 Man Utd, available at a best price of 17/2 with Boylesports
Live updates from Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure will be available on www.twitter.com/father_bloopy
Enjoy
This must surely be the most eagerly-anticipated game that has ever been written up on this here blog. Not just for the match itself (already-qualified Man Utd face almost-out Besiktas), but because this game is the centrepoint of Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure, which will see this here blog's intrepid pundits take in this match (preceded by a big sit-in meal in Harry Ramsdens), followed by a night of light revelry in Manchester.
As for the match itself, with qualification to the last 16 already secured (unlike some), United boss Sir Alex Ferguson will most likely make a few changes to his side- expect either Tomasz Kuszszak or Ben(ny Hill) Foster to start in goals, Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan (but not Zoran Tosic- he wasn't included in United's Champions League squad) to start in midfield, and perhaps a place in attack for either Federico Macheda or Danny Welbeck.
The Verdict
Shifty and Graeme will, by the end of Wednesday, be quite merry, having enjoyed a few light shandies. Oh wait, that's probably not the verdict y'all wanted to hear. Despite the likelihood of changes, United should still field a strong starting 11 and, given Besiktas' poor away form (they conceded 8 on their last trip to the UK), United should edge this one. K Stand, about 1/3rd of the way up, midway along, if you want to keep an eye out for Shifty and Graeme
The Bet
As previously stated, Darron Gibson is a likely starter. He has a beast of a shot on him (witness his goal against Hull last season), and can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 15/2 with Paddy Power. Otherwise, if you fancy a cheeky correct score bet, how about 2-1 Man Utd, available at a best price of 17/2 with Boylesports
Live updates from Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure will be available on www.twitter.com/father_bloopy
Enjoy
Friday 20 November 2009
Some random bets that be taking my interest
With the Premier League back in action this weekend, here are a few more bets that look like providing good value:
- Sunderland v Arsenal over 2.5 goals- best price 4/6 with Coral. Arsenal have scored a preposterous 55 goals in 19 games in all competitions this season (10 of their 11 Premier League games this season have featured over 2.5 goals), and even without the injured Robin van Persie and Nicklas Bendtner, Arsene Wenger's side still carry plenty of goalscoring menace for a Sunderland side whose 1st choice keeper Craig Gordon is out injured. Also factor in the current goalscoring form of Darren Bent for Sunderland, and the fact that Arsenal's defence may well include Mickael Silvestre at left-back. Statistically speaking, Arsenal's 11 Premier League games have featured an average of 4.54 goals per game (this is actually insane), while Sunderland's matches themselves have averaged 3.25 per game. If you're feeling really brave, one could even be tempted by over 3.5 goals, available at a best price of 6/4 with Boylesports
- Chelsea really ought to be beating Wolves quite comfortably, and a best price of a general 1/6 reflects this. Therefore, it's necessary to look elsewhere if you want a decent value bet on this game. If you're looking for a correct score, then anything between 2-0 and 6-0 is probably worth considering. Chelsea haven't conceded at home since the opening day of the season, and after getting a pasting from Arsenal last week, it's difficult to imagine Wolves being terribly adventurous in this one (also consider that seeing footballers in blue adidas shirts probably brings Wolves striker Kevin Doyle out in a cold sweat right now), so, at a best price of 8/11 with Blue Square, Chelsea to win to nil could represent decent value
- Birmingham v Fulham is one of those games that, at first glance, looks like resulting in a draw. Alex Mcleish's Birmingham side have drawn their last 2, while Roy Hodgson's Fulham have drawn 3 of their last 5. The draw can be backed at a best price of 23/10 with Victor Chandler. Another bet worth considering here is under 2.5 goals- neither side have been exactly potent infront of goal this season (Birmingham have scored just 4 goals in 6 Premier League home games this season, with Fulham managing 7 in 6 away games), while at the same time having reasonably solid defensive records, therefore Skybet's 4/6 on under 2.5 goals is worth considering
Will there be any controversial handballs this weekend? It's a Given
Here's this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:
The 1987 Crystal Light National Aerobic Champioship Team Competition: The San Francisco Bay Club
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeMJOPlK-0E
After the midweek excitement of the play-offs which had it all, handball controversy, Shay Given going mental and Russia getting bundled out, it's back to normal league action this weekend.
Post-international games tend to throw up problems for the more multi-cultured clubs. For example, how are Arsenal going to cope without placenta-drench Robin van Persie leading the line for a few weeks. You could say his ankle is a big bloody mess. Arsenal cannot be happy with Giorgio Chiellini's ligament busting challenge.
This weekend has thrown up some interesting match-ups, onwards with the bets:
Sunderland v Arsenal
Steve Bruce will continue to highlight his growing reputation in management circles with a stonking 2-0 victory over what, some believe, will be his future club
Sunderland to win 5/1 @ Paddy Power
Liverpool v Man City
AT the beginning of the season there were a few mentals who thought that this would be a top of the table clash. Instead, Hughes and Benitez have managed to make some crazy signing decisions to determine the contrary. This Saturday's 4th spot decider looks set to see Aquilani make his first start in the league for his new club with Johnson and Gerrard on the bench, therefore I think City will lose this late in the game by 2 goals to 1
Liverpool to win 2-1, 13/2 @ William Hill
Dundee v ICT
I hate Caley, Sean Higgins FTW!
Sean Higgins 1st goalscorer, no odds up yet
On a side note, check out this comic blog drawn by two guys from Alness with nothing better to do with their time
http://www.drawnbydrunks.co.uk
The 1987 Crystal Light National Aerobic Champioship Team Competition: The San Francisco Bay Club
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeMJOPlK-0E
After the midweek excitement of the play-offs which had it all, handball controversy, Shay Given going mental and Russia getting bundled out, it's back to normal league action this weekend.
Post-international games tend to throw up problems for the more multi-cultured clubs. For example, how are Arsenal going to cope without placenta-drench Robin van Persie leading the line for a few weeks. You could say his ankle is a big bloody mess. Arsenal cannot be happy with Giorgio Chiellini's ligament busting challenge.
This weekend has thrown up some interesting match-ups, onwards with the bets:
Sunderland v Arsenal
Steve Bruce will continue to highlight his growing reputation in management circles with a stonking 2-0 victory over what, some believe, will be his future club
Sunderland to win 5/1 @ Paddy Power
Liverpool v Man City
AT the beginning of the season there were a few mentals who thought that this would be a top of the table clash. Instead, Hughes and Benitez have managed to make some crazy signing decisions to determine the contrary. This Saturday's 4th spot decider looks set to see Aquilani make his first start in the league for his new club with Johnson and Gerrard on the bench, therefore I think City will lose this late in the game by 2 goals to 1
Liverpool to win 2-1, 13/2 @ William Hill
Dundee v ICT
I hate Caley, Sean Higgins FTW!
Sean Higgins 1st goalscorer, no odds up yet
On a side note, check out this comic blog drawn by two guys from Alness with nothing better to do with their time
http://www.drawnbydrunks.co.uk
Thursday 19 November 2009
Burnley v Aston Villa, Saturday 21st November
My Thoughts
After a week of international football, it's back to league business for these two in the 2nd Claret and Blue Derby of the season. Both sides should be realtively fresh going into this one- neither side had many players away on international duty. Burnley's current 10th position in the league is based on their excellent home form (5-0-1), with only Wigan's trip to Turf Moor last month resulting in a home defeat. By the same token, though, their away form is terrible (0-1-5). One aspect of their home record to take into consideration is that they have yet to win at home against a good side in good form- when Everton were defeated 1-0, they were still recovering from their 6-1 destruction at the hands of Arsenal, and the Manchester United side defeated at Turf Moor was some way short of top form. One must also take note of how unfortunate Hull City were to lose 2-0 against Owen Coyle's men, due to a number of questionable refereeing decisions that day. Aston Villa's away form over the last 2 seasons has always been respectable; indeed, many feel that their counter-attacking style is better suited to playing away from Villa Park, and has led to them already clinching away wins at Anfield and St Andrews.
The Verdict
This looks like being one of the more interesting matches of a Premier League weekend which features what will no doubt be edge-of-the-seat thrillers such as Stoke v Portsmouth and Blackburn v Bolton. Villa are actually due an away win- they have not won in their last 4 league away games, and go into this one fresh off the back of stuffing Burnley's Lancashire rivals Bolton 5-1. With Gabriel Agbonlahor rediscovering his goalscoring touch (and up against a defence that has already conceded 25 Premier League goals), this writer fancies Villa to win this one
The Bet
Aston Villa can be backed to win outright at a best price of 5/4 with Skybet. Alternatively, if you fancy backing Gabriel Agbonlahor, he can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 2/1 with Coral, or for a slightly more random anytime scorer, 4 of Villa's 8 Premier League goalscorers this season have been defenders- Stephen Warnock's yet to get in on that action, though- the ex-Blackburn left-back can be backed to score anytime against his old club's biggest local rivals at 12/1 with Skybet
After a week of international football, it's back to league business for these two in the 2nd Claret and Blue Derby of the season. Both sides should be realtively fresh going into this one- neither side had many players away on international duty. Burnley's current 10th position in the league is based on their excellent home form (5-0-1), with only Wigan's trip to Turf Moor last month resulting in a home defeat. By the same token, though, their away form is terrible (0-1-5). One aspect of their home record to take into consideration is that they have yet to win at home against a good side in good form- when Everton were defeated 1-0, they were still recovering from their 6-1 destruction at the hands of Arsenal, and the Manchester United side defeated at Turf Moor was some way short of top form. One must also take note of how unfortunate Hull City were to lose 2-0 against Owen Coyle's men, due to a number of questionable refereeing decisions that day. Aston Villa's away form over the last 2 seasons has always been respectable; indeed, many feel that their counter-attacking style is better suited to playing away from Villa Park, and has led to them already clinching away wins at Anfield and St Andrews.
The Verdict
This looks like being one of the more interesting matches of a Premier League weekend which features what will no doubt be edge-of-the-seat thrillers such as Stoke v Portsmouth and Blackburn v Bolton. Villa are actually due an away win- they have not won in their last 4 league away games, and go into this one fresh off the back of stuffing Burnley's Lancashire rivals Bolton 5-1. With Gabriel Agbonlahor rediscovering his goalscoring touch (and up against a defence that has already conceded 25 Premier League goals), this writer fancies Villa to win this one
The Bet
Aston Villa can be backed to win outright at a best price of 5/4 with Skybet. Alternatively, if you fancy backing Gabriel Agbonlahor, he can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 2/1 with Coral, or for a slightly more random anytime scorer, 4 of Villa's 8 Premier League goalscorers this season have been defenders- Stephen Warnock's yet to get in on that action, though- the ex-Blackburn left-back can be backed to score anytime against his old club's biggest local rivals at 12/1 with Skybet
Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT!!
Shifty is delighted to confirm details of Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure. On Wednesday 25th November, Shifty and Graeme will be attending the Manchester United v Besiktas match, staying in Manchester that evening for light revelry, before returning north the following day, with pictures and tales galore to post on here.
Shifty will be providing a preview of the game on Tuesday, and Graeme is also looking into the possibility of a live Twitter linkup during the Big Blog Adventure- keep checking the blog for further details
Weekend previews to follow
Midweek Betting Review
Here's how the recommended bets fared last night:
Greece to beat Ukraine @ 4/1- 1 unit returns 5
Fanis Gekas anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Russia to beat Slovenia- 1 unit returns 0
Slovenia v Russia under 3.5 goals @ 2/9- 1 unit returns 1.22
Ireland to beat France (in 90 minutes) @ 13/2 - 1 unit returns 7.5
France v Ireland 0-0 half-time- 1 unit returns 0
Bosnia v Portugal draw- 1 unit returns 0
Pepe anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Harris Medunjanin anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Total Outlay: 9 units
Total Return: 13.72 units
Return/ Outlay %: 152.44%
Greece to beat Ukraine @ 4/1- 1 unit returns 5
Fanis Gekas anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Russia to beat Slovenia- 1 unit returns 0
Slovenia v Russia under 3.5 goals @ 2/9- 1 unit returns 1.22
Ireland to beat France (in 90 minutes) @ 13/2 - 1 unit returns 7.5
France v Ireland 0-0 half-time- 1 unit returns 0
Bosnia v Portugal draw- 1 unit returns 0
Pepe anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Harris Medunjanin anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Total Outlay: 9 units
Total Return: 13.72 units
Return/ Outlay %: 152.44%
Wednesday 18 November 2009
Two matches down, two to go...
Here's a couple of more digestible previews for the remaining 2 play-off matches:
Ukraine v Greece
Ukraine's play-off record is horrible: played 6, won 0, drawn 3, lost 3. By all accounts, Saturday's 0-0 was a turgid affair- both teams will know that they will have to sharpen up in attack if they want to qualify. These two actually have previous: they met in qualifying campaigns for EURO 2004 and Germany 2006, with Ukraine having a slight edge. However, Greece's Fanis Gekas will surely not be as profilgate as he was on Saturday (along with Edin Dzeko and Wayne Rooney, he was one of the top scorers during qualifying), and he may just be the man to nick a goal for Greece to take them to South Africa.
Betting: Greece to win outright- best price 4/1 @ Coral
Fanis Gekas anytime scorer- best price 7/2 @ extrabet
Slovenia v Russia
A late goal for Slovenia on Saturday gives them a real chance to have a go at Russia tonight. Slovenia's qualifying record at home was pretty solid- 12 goals scored, only 1 conceded, as they won 4 and drew 1 of 5 qualifiers. They also have a decent record in the play-offs, qualifying on 2 out of 3 attempts in the play-offs. However, this writer looks at Russia and still sees too much individual talent and a strong team (with Guus Hiddink in charge, they're always going to be competitive), and therefore, after also considering the struggles of teams who lose 1st legs, Russia should progress.
Betting: Russia to win outright- best price 13/10 at Stan James
Under 3.5 goals- best price 2/9 at Paddy Power
France v Ireland, Wednesday 18th November
My Thoughts
There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.
The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.
The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.
There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.
The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.
The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.
Bosnia v Portugal, Wednesday 18th November
My Thoughts
Portugal go into this game with a narrow, 1-0 advantage from Saturday's 1st leg, courtesy of Bruno Alves' goal. For Bosnia, this will be by some margin their biggest ever game as an independent nation. The game has the potential to be open- previous play-off results tell us that 2nd legs tend to feature more goals that 1st legs- an average of 2.7 goals per game in 2nd legs, compared to 2.45 in 1st legs. Along with this, Bosnia's favoured 3-4-1-2 formation features two wing-backs in Senijad Ibricic (rumoured to be attracting interest from Celtic) and Sejad Salihovic whose strengths are going forward as opposed to backward- the flipside of this being that this gives space in advanced wide positions for the likes of Nani to exploit. Bosnia also must do without the suspended midfield pair of Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic, aloing with centre-back Emir Spahic, and the injured Zvjezdan Misimovic, who looks set to be replaced by debutant Harris Medunjanin. Portugal, aside from the injured CR7, travelled to Bosnia with a fully-fit and suspension-free squad.
The Verdict
As was the case with the 1st leg, this is a very tough one to call. The history books do not favour Ciro Blazevic's men: in the last 12 years, of the 14 teams who have lost the 1st legs of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify. Bizarrely, of the 3 ties where a team has lost the 1st leg and won the 2nd leg, Scotland have featured in 2 of them. Bosnia must also improve on a defensive record which saw them concede 13 times in 10 qualifying matches- by means of comparison, Portugal only conceded 5. As mentioned in my previous post, the play-off matches usually seem to feature 4 home wins, and an equal number of draws and away wins. Given that Saturday saw 2 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw, we can expect a similar sequence of results tonight- this writer would be erring to call this match as a draw. Expect a big effort from Bosnia, with Edin Dzeko causing real problems for the Portugal defence, but I ultimately reckon they will fall just short of the final hurdle.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at 12/5 with Ladbrokes. Also, it wouldn't be right if this writer didn't throw a couple of random anytime goalscorers in. In Pepe and Bruno Alves, Portugal have a pair of centre-backs capable of nabbing the odd goal, as shown by Bruno Alves netting the only goal of the game on Saturday. Pepe will probably be thinking to himself "It's my turn now" and can be backed to score anytime at 12/1 with William Hill. Also, how about Harris Medunjanin to mark his international debut with a goal? He can be backed anytime at 11/2 with bet365.
Portugal go into this game with a narrow, 1-0 advantage from Saturday's 1st leg, courtesy of Bruno Alves' goal. For Bosnia, this will be by some margin their biggest ever game as an independent nation. The game has the potential to be open- previous play-off results tell us that 2nd legs tend to feature more goals that 1st legs- an average of 2.7 goals per game in 2nd legs, compared to 2.45 in 1st legs. Along with this, Bosnia's favoured 3-4-1-2 formation features two wing-backs in Senijad Ibricic (rumoured to be attracting interest from Celtic) and Sejad Salihovic whose strengths are going forward as opposed to backward- the flipside of this being that this gives space in advanced wide positions for the likes of Nani to exploit. Bosnia also must do without the suspended midfield pair of Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic, aloing with centre-back Emir Spahic, and the injured Zvjezdan Misimovic, who looks set to be replaced by debutant Harris Medunjanin. Portugal, aside from the injured CR7, travelled to Bosnia with a fully-fit and suspension-free squad.
The Verdict
As was the case with the 1st leg, this is a very tough one to call. The history books do not favour Ciro Blazevic's men: in the last 12 years, of the 14 teams who have lost the 1st legs of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify. Bizarrely, of the 3 ties where a team has lost the 1st leg and won the 2nd leg, Scotland have featured in 2 of them. Bosnia must also improve on a defensive record which saw them concede 13 times in 10 qualifying matches- by means of comparison, Portugal only conceded 5. As mentioned in my previous post, the play-off matches usually seem to feature 4 home wins, and an equal number of draws and away wins. Given that Saturday saw 2 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw, we can expect a similar sequence of results tonight- this writer would be erring to call this match as a draw. Expect a big effort from Bosnia, with Edin Dzeko causing real problems for the Portugal defence, but I ultimately reckon they will fall just short of the final hurdle.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at 12/5 with Ladbrokes. Also, it wouldn't be right if this writer didn't throw a couple of random anytime goalscorers in. In Pepe and Bruno Alves, Portugal have a pair of centre-backs capable of nabbing the odd goal, as shown by Bruno Alves netting the only goal of the game on Saturday. Pepe will probably be thinking to himself "It's my turn now" and can be backed to score anytime at 12/1 with William Hill. Also, how about Harris Medunjanin to mark his international debut with a goal? He can be backed anytime at 11/2 with bet365.
Tuesday 17 November 2009
World Cup Qualifying Play-Offs 2nd Legs, Wednesday 18th November
Preamble
The last remaining World Cup places are up for grabs in Europe tomorrow night, and, as ever, this intrepid writer has had his head buried in stats in order to preview these games for y'all. The play-offs are always tense, dramatic occasions, a chance for relative unknowns to become national heroes (in New Zealand, the government are being lobbied to change the name of the national Westpac Stadium to Rory Fallon Park; in 1997, a young Gianluigi Buffon made his Italy debut in a snowy play-off match in Moscow) and for national heroes to become, er, zeroes. Over the last 2 days, this writer has been furiously analysing previous qualifying matches and play-off results (I've been off work with a broken metatarsal), and come to some interesting conclusions:
The last remaining World Cup places are up for grabs in Europe tomorrow night, and, as ever, this intrepid writer has had his head buried in stats in order to preview these games for y'all. The play-offs are always tense, dramatic occasions, a chance for relative unknowns to become national heroes (in New Zealand, the government are being lobbied to change the name of the national Westpac Stadium to Rory Fallon Park; in 1997, a young Gianluigi Buffon made his Italy debut in a snowy play-off match in Moscow) and for national heroes to become, er, zeroes. Over the last 2 days, this writer has been furiously analysing previous qualifying matches and play-off results (I've been off work with a broken metatarsal), and come to some interesting conclusions:
- Ukraine have never progressed to an international tournament through the play-offs. Indeed, in 6 matches in 3 play-offs, they have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 3. Their 0-0 draw away in Greece was their first draw away from Ukraine in the play-offs, and even that result came thanks to a questionable decision to rule out a Fanis Gekas goal
- Over the course of the 6, 8 or 10 matches (depending on the qualifying format, there have been either 3, 4 or 5 play-off matches in 1998-2006 (there were none for EURO 2008)), there have been, in 4 of the 5 tournaments, 4 home wins. With Portugal and Russia securing home wins in the 1st legs on Saturday, it would be reasonable to assume 2 home wins tomorrow night
- Ireland have a mountain to climb in France. Of the 5 teams to have previously lost the 1st leg of their tie at home, none have managed to qualify, indeed only Scotland have managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg after losing the 1st leg at home. Ireland's play-off record against European nations is also poor- they have now won none of their last 5 play-off matches, and only scored 6 goals in 5 away qualifying matches. They've also failed to beat France in 3 competitive internationals over the last 12 years
- As a general rule, if you lose the 1st leg, you're out. Over the past 12 years, out of 14 teams who have lost the 1st leg of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify
- 2nd legs tend to be more open than 1st legs. Over 20 1st legs, an average of 2.45 goals were scored per game. However, in the 2nd legs, this increased to 2.7 goals per game
- Despite the previous stat, don't expect goals galore in the Ukraine v Greece match. Their 4 previous competitive internationals have produced a meagre total of just 6 goals. Consider also Ukraine's defence, which only conceded 6 goals throughout the entire qualifying campaign
So there you have some initial stats to ponder, lovingly computed for y'all by this writer. Full previews of the games to follow
Saturday 14 November 2009
England v Brazil, Saturday 14th November
My Thoughts
England play Brazil this evening in a friendly match in Qatar, as they try to win the World Cup in more ways than one: a match against one of the very best sides in the world is sure to provide a thorough examination of their credentials for 2010, while delegates from their 2018 bid will no doubt be making representations to local businessman Mohmammed Bin Hamman, whose Saturday job happens to be FIFA vice-president. It's also more than reasonable to suspect that the FA's coffers will have been boosted by playing this match.
The Verdict
International friendlies are notoriously difficult to judge, with the likelihood that both sides will start considerably short of full-strength, and then make a plethora of substitutions during the game. England in particular have lost a number of first-choice players for this match, and this match will therefore be an opportunity to evaluate the likes of Wayne Bridge, Darren Bent, Ben Foster and James Milner at the highest level. Brazil, meanwhile, should still be able to field a strong side, given the depth in talent at Dunga's disposal. The Selecao were impressive in the Confederations Cup this summer, despite not appearing 100% convincing in defence (but if they were, they wouldn't be Brazil), and with the likes of Luis Fabiano and Robinho in attack, they should have too much for the Two Lions (it would be 3, but they're missing so many of their first-choice players) in Doha this evening.
The Bet
Brazil are available at a general 11/10, which represents great value. Alternatively, these two sides' games recently have tended to produce a few goals, so over 2.5 goals avaliable at a general 4/5 is worth a shout, as is Luis Fabiano to score anytime at 15/8 with Coral, although it might be an idea to wait until the starting line-ups are confirmed before placing any goalscorer bets
England play Brazil this evening in a friendly match in Qatar, as they try to win the World Cup in more ways than one: a match against one of the very best sides in the world is sure to provide a thorough examination of their credentials for 2010, while delegates from their 2018 bid will no doubt be making representations to local businessman Mohmammed Bin Hamman, whose Saturday job happens to be FIFA vice-president. It's also more than reasonable to suspect that the FA's coffers will have been boosted by playing this match.
The Verdict
International friendlies are notoriously difficult to judge, with the likelihood that both sides will start considerably short of full-strength, and then make a plethora of substitutions during the game. England in particular have lost a number of first-choice players for this match, and this match will therefore be an opportunity to evaluate the likes of Wayne Bridge, Darren Bent, Ben Foster and James Milner at the highest level. Brazil, meanwhile, should still be able to field a strong side, given the depth in talent at Dunga's disposal. The Selecao were impressive in the Confederations Cup this summer, despite not appearing 100% convincing in defence (but if they were, they wouldn't be Brazil), and with the likes of Luis Fabiano and Robinho in attack, they should have too much for the Two Lions (it would be 3, but they're missing so many of their first-choice players) in Doha this evening.
The Bet
Brazil are available at a general 11/10, which represents great value. Alternatively, these two sides' games recently have tended to produce a few goals, so over 2.5 goals avaliable at a general 4/5 is worth a shout, as is Luis Fabiano to score anytime at 15/8 with Coral, although it might be an idea to wait until the starting line-ups are confirmed before placing any goalscorer bets
Thursday 12 November 2009
Portugal v Bosnia, Saturday 14th November
My Thoughts
For those of you who perhaps don't follow European football all that closely, you'll probably go into your local bookies on Saturday morning and think "home banker, surely. Portugal are ace and Bosnia are rubbish". Well, allow this writer to enlighten you. Bosnia have actually been good these last 18 months, finishing 2nd in their qualifying group behind Spain, and ahead of Euro 2008 semi-finalists Turkey (more about the woes of semi-finalists failing to qualify next time round later), with Wolfsburg stars Edin Dzeko (pictured) and Zvjezdan Misimovic (it's a good job I don't write these entries in Microsoft Word, otherwise the spellchecker would have just exploded) key to a qualifying campaign which saw them score (and concede) more goals than any of the other sides in the play-offs. Portugal, on the other hand, are not quite the force they were not so long ago. The stars of their World Youth Cup-winning side of the early 90s have long gone, and beleagured coach Carlos Queiroz has found that the likes of Simao, Raul Meireles and Helder Postiga are simply not of the same standard as Figo, Rui Costa and Fernando Couto. Add to that the absence of their one genuine world-class player, Cristiano Ronaldo, through an ankle injury, and one has good reason to suspect this won't be an easy tie for Portugal. England in 1994. Sweden in 1998. Holland in 2002. Turkey in 2006. Will Portugal fail to qualify for the 2010 World Cup, having made it to the semi-finals of the previous one?
The Verdict
This is a tough one to call. Both teams will surely have one eye on Wednesday's 2nd leg in Zenica, especially the 9 Bosnia players (I'll refrain from calling them Bosnians- let's not get into that debate) who are 1 yellow card away from missing that match. But hey, all 22 starting players for both sides, plus 14 subs, will be 2 yellow cards away from missing the match, so Bosnia coach Ciro Blazevic (who is 74 years old, and once ran for the Croatian presidency. Not of the FA, of the country) may not wish to dwell on that too much. The main reason Portugal are in the play-offs is because of the absolute pig's ear they made of their early qualifying fixtures- 0-0 draws at home to Albania and Sweden, and a 3-2 loss at home to Denmark. Despite winning their last 2 home games fairly comfortably, they are far from invincible at home. Bosnia's away form (won 3, lost 2 against Spain and Turkey) is respectable enough and, as already mentioned, they are more than capable of finding the net (provided this relatively inexperienced team does not freeze), even against an improving Portuguese backline. However, stopping them going in at the other end is likely to be the big problem for Blazevic's men and, even without Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal should still have enough quality to take a narrow lead into Wednesday's 2nd leg.
The Bet
There's not much value in Portugal outright at a general 1/2, but do take it if you feel that Bosnia will indeed freeze. Given that both sides boast considerable attacking prowess (Dzeko's presence on the Balon D'Or shortlist is testament to that), it might be worthwhile considering over 2.5 goals, available at 5/6 with Paddy Power
Tuesday 10 November 2009
Graeme belongs to James Richardson
Graeme's well-prepared for this weekend's action. Enjoy
After last week's accumulator that I never wrote up and nearly won £19K on, your intrepid stupid bet evoking columnist is getting his act together for this week's round of matches.
Once again we have a weekend of international silly punt madness to peruse over so here are some ill-thought out tips:
After last week's accumulator that I never wrote up and nearly won £19K on, your intrepid stupid bet evoking columnist is getting his act together for this week's round of matches.
Once again we have a weekend of international silly punt madness to peruse over so here are some ill-thought out tips:
- Bahrain to score 1st away to New Zealand, with Nigerian-born Jaycee John Okuwanne providing the firepower upfront. He is good at scoring important headers, ken' which put them into the playoffs. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1nMBPPum-M&feature=related 3 minutes in
- Ireland to beat France. Croke Park, bitching atmosphere and Raymond Domenech will all combine to secure a 1-0 victory for the Guinness drinkers. France to win on aggregate though. Glorious failure is the rule for Celtic teams
- Uruguay to beat Costa Rica. Forlan is ace
- Brazil to pump a highly-overrated England. Glen Johnson is the weak link and he has silly hair
Rugby Union Special:
Scotland v Fiji
In the words of Jim Mason, "New coach, new team, new challenge"
These two sides haven't met since the 2003 Rugby World Cup where Scotland only prevailed by a two point margin. Over the past 6 years both sides' fortunes have changed. Fiji are now a genuine top ten team while Scotland are managed by a failed English coach and sit behing Fiji in the world rankings. Scotland will win this one though, just. I predict a tight match with Scotland winning infront of a sparse crowd at Murrayfield by under 10 points.
Friday 6 November 2009
Ross County v Inverness Caledonian Thistle, Saturday 7th November
My Thoughts
You put your left hand in.....
Without doubt the biggest game of this weekend, and arguably the biggest of County's season so far. The Staggies go into this Highland Derby off the back of last week's 2-0 defeat away at Queen of the South, while the Caravan Dwellers from the Ferry cross the Kessock Bridge following a 4-1 victory at home to Morton last Saturday. The two sides' managers have had somewhat different modes of preparation for this game this week: while County boss Derek Adams will have been working with his players and on his team line-up and strategy for Saturday, Terry Butcher was doing punditry work for STV (a curious fact about Scottish Television's production of Champions League coverage is that it features only one Scotsman in County fan Rob Maclean) during their coverage of Lyon v liverpool, and had to stumble his way through talking about a team he clearly knew nothing about, who were playing Lyon that night.
The Verdict
These two sides have met twice so far, with both games played (1 league, 1 ALBA Cup) at the Tulloch Caledonian Stadium. Both sides have won 1 game each, with County triumphing 3-1 in August's league encounter. Regarding team news, County are likely to go with 1 or 2 from Paul Di Giacomo, Steven Craig and Garry Wood in attack, depending on whether Derek Adams decides on a 4-4-2 diamond or a 4-4-1-1 formation. As for Caley Thistle, I haven't bothered to read an Inverness Courier this week, so haven't a clue who's in and out. Either way, this writer predicts a tight, scrappy game- typical Highland derby stuff. Expect Steven Watt, Stuart Kettlewell and Scott Morrison in particular to attempt some potentially disfiguring challenges. On that front, Caley's Ross Tokely surely needs no introduction.
The Bet
Last weekend aside, County have been in good form this season, and can be backed to win outright at 9/5 with bet365. 'Mon the Staggies
You put your left hand in.....
Without doubt the biggest game of this weekend, and arguably the biggest of County's season so far. The Staggies go into this Highland Derby off the back of last week's 2-0 defeat away at Queen of the South, while the Caravan Dwellers from the Ferry cross the Kessock Bridge following a 4-1 victory at home to Morton last Saturday. The two sides' managers have had somewhat different modes of preparation for this game this week: while County boss Derek Adams will have been working with his players and on his team line-up and strategy for Saturday, Terry Butcher was doing punditry work for STV (a curious fact about Scottish Television's production of Champions League coverage is that it features only one Scotsman in County fan Rob Maclean) during their coverage of Lyon v liverpool, and had to stumble his way through talking about a team he clearly knew nothing about, who were playing Lyon that night.
The Verdict
These two sides have met twice so far, with both games played (1 league, 1 ALBA Cup) at the Tulloch Caledonian Stadium. Both sides have won 1 game each, with County triumphing 3-1 in August's league encounter. Regarding team news, County are likely to go with 1 or 2 from Paul Di Giacomo, Steven Craig and Garry Wood in attack, depending on whether Derek Adams decides on a 4-4-2 diamond or a 4-4-1-1 formation. As for Caley Thistle, I haven't bothered to read an Inverness Courier this week, so haven't a clue who's in and out. Either way, this writer predicts a tight, scrappy game- typical Highland derby stuff. Expect Steven Watt, Stuart Kettlewell and Scott Morrison in particular to attempt some potentially disfiguring challenges. On that front, Caley's Ross Tokely surely needs no introduction.
The Bet
Last weekend aside, County have been in good form this season, and can be backed to win outright at 9/5 with bet365. 'Mon the Staggies
Friday 30 October 2009
A few random bets to tickle your fancy this weekend
Here's a few random bets that have taken my fancy this weekend. Back with a mixture of caution, and pay-day-fuelled gusto:
- Arsenal are 4/6 with Ladbrokes to beat Tottenham in the Saturday lunchtime game. No amount of statistics can accurately portray just how good a bet this is, but OK then, here's a couple. Witness Spurs' complete capitulation against Manchester United and Chelsea this season- their opening day win against Liverpool was a flash in the pan, not a sign of a genuine sustained top 4 challenge. Also, Arsenal don't generally lose home games- witness even their dismantling of Portsmouth and Birmingham this season- perhaps they are finally mastering the art of breaking teams down at home
- A red card in the Manchester United v Blackburn Rovers game. Referee Phil Dowd has issued 4 red cards in his 8 Premier League games so far this season, and has in the past issued no fewer than 5 red cards to Manchester United players, including being a prominent member of the I Have Sent Off Paul Scholes Club (global membership is estimated at 267). Given that Man Utd have had 2 red cards in 3 days, and that Rovers tend to favour a, shall we say, "combative" approach, Dowd could be well be delving into his top pocket in the Saturday teatime game. Paddy Power offer 9/2 on there being a red card in the match
- Livingston to beat Montrose. Livingston will, in all probability, have too much firepower in their squad for the rest of the 3rd Division to cope with, and it's difficult to see struugling Montrose offering much resistance tomorrow. Livingston are 8/13 with Blue Square
- If you're going for Arsenal to win at 4/6 tomorrow, then you can cover yourself with Paddy Power offering 7/5 on the double chance Tottenham / Draw. As for a random punt on this one, how about Arshavin 6/1 1st goalscorer?
Silly Graeme's Bet Here's
With Tottenham undergoing their traditional complete loss of form as the clocks go back, compounded by the suspicious team selections that have nothing to do with Harry seeking ever more funds this coming January (http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Harry_Redknapp ), we can expect to see a heavy defeat for Spurs in the early kick-off this Saturday.
Arsenal to win 3-1: 10/1 @ William Hill
Fortress Turf Moor!
Hull and Brown to sink- 1-0 Burnley
Weekend Accumulator:
Chelsea to win
Sunderland to win
Stoke Wolves Draw
Fulham Torres Draw
30/1 @ William Hill
Friday 23 October 2009
Can't get that 99 Red Balloons song out of me head
Here's this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:
Saturday Accumulator:
Wolves v Villa- Draw
Burnley v Wigan- Home Win
Coventry v West Brom- Home Win
Crystal Palace v Forest- Home Win (Forest will not get 6 wins in a row)
Queen of the South v Airdrie- Home Win
Ladbrokes accumulator odds: 65/1
Sunday Accumulator:
Liverpool v Man Utd- Home Win
Man City v Fulham- Home Win
West Ham v Arsenal- Away Win
6/1 @ William Hill
Liverpool v Man Utd:
1st goalscorer, Yossi Benayoun @ 8/1, William Hill
1st card to Man Utd @ 8/11, William Hill
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Saturday Accumulator:
Wolves v Villa- Draw
Burnley v Wigan- Home Win
Coventry v West Brom- Home Win
Crystal Palace v Forest- Home Win (Forest will not get 6 wins in a row)
Queen of the South v Airdrie- Home Win
Ladbrokes accumulator odds: 65/1
Sunday Accumulator:
Liverpool v Man Utd- Home Win
Man City v Fulham- Home Win
West Ham v Arsenal- Away Win
6/1 @ William Hill
Liverpool v Man Utd:
1st goalscorer, Yossi Benayoun @ 8/1, William Hill
1st card to Man Utd @ 8/11, William Hill
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Thursday 22 October 2009
Tottenham v Stoke City, Saturday 24th October
My Thoughts
Tottenham have made a very impressive start to this season- only Manchester United and Chelsea, the two teams above them in the leage right now- have managed to beat Harry Redknapp's side, and it's no secret that Spurs' start to the season has been down to the form of their frontmen, with Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane all in fine goalscoring form, and all contributing to Spurs' total of 21 league goals so far, an average of 2.33 per game. However, question marks still linger over a defence which has only kept 1 Premier League clean sheet this season, and Redknapp will no doubt complain before Saturday's match about 1 or more of his cente-backs being out injured. Get your excuses in early, eh Harry?
Stoke have made a solid start to their Difficult Second Season. They currently reside in 9th place, although they are no more aesthetically pleasing than last season, with complementary neck braces still de rigeur at the Britannia Stadium. Their away record last season was woeful, and while this season they have managed 3 draws on their travels, Tony Pulis' side still face a very difficult task if they are to get anything from this one.
The Verdict
As previously stated, Stoke will make Spurs work for this one. Expect Stoke to favour the aerial route, and possibly just James Beattie (this writer must admit he is puzzled by the lack of "Beattie for England" calls) on his own up top, to try and work whatever makeshift defence Redknapp has spent £20 million on. However, expect Spurs' superior quality in midfield, and greater potency in atttack (even without the suspended Defoe) to eventually shine through and lead to a home win.
The Bet
Spurs are available outright at 2/5 with Blue Square. Due to Spurs' defensive record, it's difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, therefore a scorecast of 2-1 Spurs could be considered, especially as a tough, combative Stoke side are unlikely to let them walk this one
Tottenham have made a very impressive start to this season- only Manchester United and Chelsea, the two teams above them in the leage right now- have managed to beat Harry Redknapp's side, and it's no secret that Spurs' start to the season has been down to the form of their frontmen, with Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane all in fine goalscoring form, and all contributing to Spurs' total of 21 league goals so far, an average of 2.33 per game. However, question marks still linger over a defence which has only kept 1 Premier League clean sheet this season, and Redknapp will no doubt complain before Saturday's match about 1 or more of his cente-backs being out injured. Get your excuses in early, eh Harry?
Stoke have made a solid start to their Difficult Second Season. They currently reside in 9th place, although they are no more aesthetically pleasing than last season, with complementary neck braces still de rigeur at the Britannia Stadium. Their away record last season was woeful, and while this season they have managed 3 draws on their travels, Tony Pulis' side still face a very difficult task if they are to get anything from this one.
The Verdict
As previously stated, Stoke will make Spurs work for this one. Expect Stoke to favour the aerial route, and possibly just James Beattie (this writer must admit he is puzzled by the lack of "Beattie for England" calls) on his own up top, to try and work whatever makeshift defence Redknapp has spent £20 million on. However, expect Spurs' superior quality in midfield, and greater potency in atttack (even without the suspended Defoe) to eventually shine through and lead to a home win.
The Bet
Spurs are available outright at 2/5 with Blue Square. Due to Spurs' defensive record, it's difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, therefore a scorecast of 2-1 Spurs could be considered, especially as a tough, combative Stoke side are unlikely to let them walk this one
Sunday 18 October 2009
Weekend Betting Review
Here's how my tips fared this weekend:
Aston Villa to beat Chelsea @ 7/2: 1 unit returns 4.5
HT/FT Villa/Villa: 1 unit returns 0
HT/FT Draw/Villa @ 9/1: 1 unit returns 10
Double Chance: Draw/Villa @ evens: 1 unit returns 2
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 1 unit returns 0
Sunderland to beat Liverpool @ 11/4: 1 unit returns 3.75
Sunderland and Liverpool to draw: 1 unit returns 0
Own goal being scored: 1 unit returns 0
Total outlay: 8 units
Total return: 20.25 units
Total return - outlay: 12.25 units
Return/expenditure: 253.125%
Remember, Official Blog Party today at 1pm, Morrisons Pub, Stirling
Aston Villa to beat Chelsea @ 7/2: 1 unit returns 4.5
HT/FT Villa/Villa: 1 unit returns 0
HT/FT Draw/Villa @ 9/1: 1 unit returns 10
Double Chance: Draw/Villa @ evens: 1 unit returns 2
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 1 unit returns 0
Sunderland to beat Liverpool @ 11/4: 1 unit returns 3.75
Sunderland and Liverpool to draw: 1 unit returns 0
Own goal being scored: 1 unit returns 0
Total outlay: 8 units
Total return: 20.25 units
Total return - outlay: 12.25 units
Return/expenditure: 253.125%
Remember, Official Blog Party today at 1pm, Morrisons Pub, Stirling
Friday 16 October 2009
Sunderland v Liverpool, Saturday 17th October
My Thoughts
With speculation mounting that both of Liverpool's players, Gerrard and Torres, will miss this game, expect money to be pouring into bets backing the draw and Sunderland- indeed Liverpool outright have gone from 4/6 to 11/10 in some places today, although this writer will stop short of predicting that they could drift as far as 96/1.
As for Sunderland, having personally seen them (from way up in K Stand Tier 2) very nearly beat Manchester United, this writer feels qualified to say that they are a very decent side. Hard-working lads such as Phil Bardsley and Lee Cattermole would most likely fancy their chances at tackling a Robot XI featuring a mechanised Michelin Man in goals, Sergeant Bash and Killalot from Robot Wars at full-back, Megatron from Transformers in central defence and a midfield 7 consisting entirely of Storm Troopers (with regards to Saturday's match, one cannot help but feel Lucas and Ryan Babel would not enjoy said battle quite as much), such is their willingness to run, kick, tackle and be general hard bastards for the Wearisde cause. Guile and industry is provided by talented midfielders such as Lorik Cana, Steed Malbranque and Andy Reid. Kieran Richardson also plays for Sunderland. Up top, Darren Bent and Kenwyne Jones are arguably the in-form strike partnership in the Premier League.
Contrast this with Liverpool's situation, where they were second best in their last game away at Chelsea, and now having to face a tricky away trip to an in-form Sunderland side off the back of what has been an expensive international week, and it's all of a sudden very possible to make a case for Sunderland to get some sort of result in this one.
The Verdict
Forget Chelsea last weekend, this is where we're going to get the best idea of what are left of Liverpool's title-winning credentials. No Gerrard, no Torres, fatigued players (Mascherano and Lucas were late back from South America this week), if Benitez's squad (and it will be the depth of their squad as much as anything that will be tested on Saturday) are really up to the task, then Saturday is the time to prove it. Nevertheless, there's a real vibe, an air of confidence that Steve Bruce has brought to Sunderland, and this writer fancies them to take another result off a top 4 side this weekend.
The Bet
As alluded to earlier, Sunderland's odds are shortening, and will most likely continue to do so right up until kick-off. For the win, Bruce's men are currently around a general 11/4, and are unlikely to drop below 2/1 prior to kick-off, with the draw following a similar pattern from its current 12/5. In terms of alternative markets, have a wee think about an own goal being scored, best price 15/2 with Paddy Power. Last week Anton Ferdinand put through his own net for Sunderland, with John Mensah having done likewise the previous weekend. There's a belter of a quiz question been doing the rounds recently as well: which current Premier League English player has scored the most Premier League goals against Liverpool?
Answer to follow next week
With speculation mounting that both of Liverpool's players, Gerrard and Torres, will miss this game, expect money to be pouring into bets backing the draw and Sunderland- indeed Liverpool outright have gone from 4/6 to 11/10 in some places today, although this writer will stop short of predicting that they could drift as far as 96/1.
As for Sunderland, having personally seen them (from way up in K Stand Tier 2) very nearly beat Manchester United, this writer feels qualified to say that they are a very decent side. Hard-working lads such as Phil Bardsley and Lee Cattermole would most likely fancy their chances at tackling a Robot XI featuring a mechanised Michelin Man in goals, Sergeant Bash and Killalot from Robot Wars at full-back, Megatron from Transformers in central defence and a midfield 7 consisting entirely of Storm Troopers (with regards to Saturday's match, one cannot help but feel Lucas and Ryan Babel would not enjoy said battle quite as much), such is their willingness to run, kick, tackle and be general hard bastards for the Wearisde cause. Guile and industry is provided by talented midfielders such as Lorik Cana, Steed Malbranque and Andy Reid. Kieran Richardson also plays for Sunderland. Up top, Darren Bent and Kenwyne Jones are arguably the in-form strike partnership in the Premier League.
Contrast this with Liverpool's situation, where they were second best in their last game away at Chelsea, and now having to face a tricky away trip to an in-form Sunderland side off the back of what has been an expensive international week, and it's all of a sudden very possible to make a case for Sunderland to get some sort of result in this one.
The Verdict
Forget Chelsea last weekend, this is where we're going to get the best idea of what are left of Liverpool's title-winning credentials. No Gerrard, no Torres, fatigued players (Mascherano and Lucas were late back from South America this week), if Benitez's squad (and it will be the depth of their squad as much as anything that will be tested on Saturday) are really up to the task, then Saturday is the time to prove it. Nevertheless, there's a real vibe, an air of confidence that Steve Bruce has brought to Sunderland, and this writer fancies them to take another result off a top 4 side this weekend.
The Bet
As alluded to earlier, Sunderland's odds are shortening, and will most likely continue to do so right up until kick-off. For the win, Bruce's men are currently around a general 11/4, and are unlikely to drop below 2/1 prior to kick-off, with the draw following a similar pattern from its current 12/5. In terms of alternative markets, have a wee think about an own goal being scored, best price 15/2 with Paddy Power. Last week Anton Ferdinand put through his own net for Sunderland, with John Mensah having done likewise the previous weekend. There's a belter of a quiz question been doing the rounds recently as well: which current Premier League English player has scored the most Premier League goals against Liverpool?
Answer to follow next week
Aston Villa v Chelsea Odds
Half-time/Full-time:
Draw/Aston Villa: 9/1 Coral
Aston Villa/Aston Villa: 8/1 totesport
Double Chance: Aston Villa / Draw: evens with Paddy Power
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 13/5 with Coral
Draw/Aston Villa: 9/1 Coral
Aston Villa/Aston Villa: 8/1 totesport
Double Chance: Aston Villa / Draw: evens with Paddy Power
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 13/5 with Coral
From the Dungeon of Decrepitude...
Emerges Graeme, with this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:
After a humdinger of an international week with more dead rubbers than can be found on Dwight Yorke's bedroom floor (copyright James Richardson), it's a return to the trudge of the Premiership this weekend.
What better exemplifies the word trudge than the combined towns of Blackburn and Burnley. All Northern, grey, with everyone wearing flatcaps and munching on HOVIS BREAD!
In truth, there is nothing grey about these two sides. Part of all the glitz of the Premier League, they both try to play football in an attractive manner.
With Big Sam's Blackburn side searching for a healthy response to their last game which included an Emirates spanking for having the audacity to dare to attack a highly impressive Arsenal side. Couple that with Burnley's nifty start to the season- while they've been capable of great performances (including a 1-0 win over Team Manchester), they've also, at times, been terrible (Tottenham 5 Burnley 0)- this gives us the potential for a pulsating game come noon+1 on Sunday. Official Blog Party in the MCB pub for this game on Sunday. Come on down for a beer and a burger.
Silly 1 game treble tip- all odds from bet365
Blackburn to win @ 8/11
Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20
Under 11 corners @ 10/11
Furthermore, another cheeky 50p punt which may be worth it is Arsenal and Birmingham to draw. Mcleish's men have taken 2 draws at the Emirates from their last 6 games there, and bet365 go 6/1 on the draw
I love James Richardson
Aston Villa v Chelsea, Saturday 17th October
My Thoughts
After the international break, we're back to league business this weekend, and this fixture looks one of the more interesting on the list. Aston Villa's form this season is good- they are in a fairly solid 7th position, with key men such as Gabriel Agbonlahor and James Milner beginning to find their form again. One of Villa's key strengths is the ability of their wide players, Milner and Ashley Young, to find space and cross the ball for powerful centre-forwards such as Agbonlahor, John Carew and Emile Heskey. Admittedly, they lack a plan B (apart from the pace of Agbonlahor against teams playing a high defensive line), but, given the narrow midfield preferred by Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti this season, it is a tactic that could well give some reward against Chelsea- expect Ancelotti to favour the more defensively-minded right-back Branislav Ivanovic over the quicksilver Jose Bosingwa against Young.
One of Ancelotti's main concerns going into this game will no doubt be fatigue- many of his players were in various far-flung corners of the earth this week on international duty. Indeed, Michael Ballack is an injury doubt having been on the receiving end of a challenge from club team-mate Yuri Zhirkov in last Saturday's Russia v Germany game. Ancelotti, who does welcome Petr Cech back from suspension, must also wrestle with the prospect of a Champions League encounter with Atletico Madrid in midweek.
The Verdict
Plenty to consider here. Both sides have had players away on international duty this week, although Chelsea's squad (which is not actually that big) will have been tested more, and Chelsea's full-backs must now prepare themselves for a thorough examining by Villa's wingmen, who will be key. If they are to win this one, Chelsea must impose themselves in the middle of the park, and look to isolate Villa's attack (ominously for Villa, Frank Lampard has gone 9 games without scoring for Chelsea). However, Villa's recent record at home to Chelsea is very good, and this writer fancies them to edge this one. Jose Mourinho's last Premier League defeat as Chelsea manager came at Villa Park- could it be the scene of Ancelotti's first?
The Bet
Stat attack: Villa have scored 70% of their goals in the 1st half of matches so far this season, and have conceded 67% of their goals in the 2nd, which points to lots of high-tempo stuff early on, before sitting back, possibly through fatigue. Odds will follow on HT/FT Villa-Villa and Draw-Villa, as well as Lampard anytime scorer, but Villa to win outright can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square
After the international break, we're back to league business this weekend, and this fixture looks one of the more interesting on the list. Aston Villa's form this season is good- they are in a fairly solid 7th position, with key men such as Gabriel Agbonlahor and James Milner beginning to find their form again. One of Villa's key strengths is the ability of their wide players, Milner and Ashley Young, to find space and cross the ball for powerful centre-forwards such as Agbonlahor, John Carew and Emile Heskey. Admittedly, they lack a plan B (apart from the pace of Agbonlahor against teams playing a high defensive line), but, given the narrow midfield preferred by Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti this season, it is a tactic that could well give some reward against Chelsea- expect Ancelotti to favour the more defensively-minded right-back Branislav Ivanovic over the quicksilver Jose Bosingwa against Young.
One of Ancelotti's main concerns going into this game will no doubt be fatigue- many of his players were in various far-flung corners of the earth this week on international duty. Indeed, Michael Ballack is an injury doubt having been on the receiving end of a challenge from club team-mate Yuri Zhirkov in last Saturday's Russia v Germany game. Ancelotti, who does welcome Petr Cech back from suspension, must also wrestle with the prospect of a Champions League encounter with Atletico Madrid in midweek.
The Verdict
Plenty to consider here. Both sides have had players away on international duty this week, although Chelsea's squad (which is not actually that big) will have been tested more, and Chelsea's full-backs must now prepare themselves for a thorough examining by Villa's wingmen, who will be key. If they are to win this one, Chelsea must impose themselves in the middle of the park, and look to isolate Villa's attack (ominously for Villa, Frank Lampard has gone 9 games without scoring for Chelsea). However, Villa's recent record at home to Chelsea is very good, and this writer fancies them to edge this one. Jose Mourinho's last Premier League defeat as Chelsea manager came at Villa Park- could it be the scene of Ancelotti's first?
The Bet
Stat attack: Villa have scored 70% of their goals in the 1st half of matches so far this season, and have conceded 67% of their goals in the 2nd, which points to lots of high-tempo stuff early on, before sitting back, possibly through fatigue. Odds will follow on HT/FT Villa-Villa and Draw-Villa, as well as Lampard anytime scorer, but Villa to win outright can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square
Tuesday 13 October 2009
International Weekend Review
Well, well, well, readers. Here's my review of Saturday's bets
Germany to beat Russia (15/8)- 1 unit returns 2.875
Ireland and Italy to draw (15/8)- 1 unit returns 2.875
Denmark to beat Sweden (6/5)- 1 unit returns 2.2
Stirling Albion to beat Arbroath- 1 unit returns 0
Total expenditure: 4 units
Total return: 7.95
Return/expenditure: 198.75%
Many of you intrepid readers (and I do believe there are 2) may have noticed Graeme betting against this writer this weekend. May I take this opportunity to reassure y'all that my triumphs this weekend enabled me to finance the construction of a Dungeon of Decrepitude, where Graeme will be residing this week.
Germany to beat Russia (15/8)- 1 unit returns 2.875
Ireland and Italy to draw (15/8)- 1 unit returns 2.875
Denmark to beat Sweden (6/5)- 1 unit returns 2.2
Stirling Albion to beat Arbroath- 1 unit returns 0
Total expenditure: 4 units
Total return: 7.95
Return/expenditure: 198.75%
Many of you intrepid readers (and I do believe there are 2) may have noticed Graeme betting against this writer this weekend. May I take this opportunity to reassure y'all that my triumphs this weekend enabled me to finance the construction of a Dungeon of Decrepitude, where Graeme will be residing this week.
Friday 9 October 2009
The Dos and Don'ts of International Weekends
Given that there aren't as many matches on this weekend (and, I'll level with you, readers: I don't consider mayself knowledgeable enough about the current squads of Austria and Lithuania to write up their match tomorrow), I thought I'd impart some of my "wisdom" when it comes to betting on internationals:
- DO research in your normal way: past results, league tables, form guides, notes on players, etc. The pointers to results for club teams remain the same in international football
- DO back Germany at 15/8 away to Russia tomorrow- an absolute stunner of a price at Coral. Speaking of great prices on the Germans, they are a massive 11/1 to win the World Cup
- DON'T just put the big teams to beat minnows on outright. These bets, even on an accumulator, offer no value. France at 1/100 to beat the Faroe Islands is a somewhat pointless bet, likewise Portugal at 2/11 to beat Hungary. Bookies are notoriously stingy on these games, due to the number of casual punters who will pile in on them
- DO think about the supposed smaller sides, especially at the moment. Liechtenstein are biting back, after years of ineptitude. Andorra recently scored a goal. Bosnia, once also-rans, are on the verge of a play-off place. Montenegro are an emerging outfit, with talent in attack such as Stvean Jovetic and Mirko Vucinic. And, last but by no means least, earlier on in this qualifying campaign: Switzerland 1 Luxembourg 2
- DON'T pay £4.99 or however much this Kentaro mob are charging to watch Ukraine v England. One bookmaker, whose name would suggest that they are open every single day of the year, are streaming it free of charge
- DO look away from the outright markets for value. As discussed, France are not worth backing outright to beat the Faroe Islands, however over 4.5 goals (and, let's face it: France could well stick 5 or more past the Faroes, given the quality they have in attack) is worth a small stake at evens with Sporting Bet
- Do take a cheeky look at the lower league action taking place this weekend. This writer would recommend taking a punt on Charlton, Stirling Albion and Queens Park on Saturday
Graeme brings you gambling tips...
....So you don't have to get them yourself. Here's Graeme's Silly Bet for the weekend:
International Madness
7 game (well, 6 game and a pigeon shoot in Paris- Ed) coupon:
The odds for these matches will vary so shop around on your coupon (I really should get some advertising deals for odds checker websites- Ed) but international weekend traditionally means ill-informed punts.
Always assume the diddy teams will lose and Italy to win.
Here we go:
Portugal to beat Hungary
Serbia to beat Romania
Turkey to beat Belgium
France to beat the Faroe Islands
Russia to beat Germany
Switzerland to beat Luxembourg
Italy to beat Ireland
All blog readers invited to Danny's house tomorrow (Saturday) morning at 11 for the Scotland match. He has a big TV and tea making facilities
International Madness
7 game (well, 6 game and a pigeon shoot in Paris- Ed) coupon:
The odds for these matches will vary so shop around on your coupon (I really should get some advertising deals for odds checker websites- Ed) but international weekend traditionally means ill-informed punts.
Always assume the diddy teams will lose and Italy to win.
Here we go:
Portugal to beat Hungary
Serbia to beat Romania
Turkey to beat Belgium
France to beat the Faroe Islands
Russia to beat Germany
Switzerland to beat Luxembourg
Italy to beat Ireland
All blog readers invited to Danny's house tomorrow (Saturday) morning at 11 for the Scotland match. He has a big TV and tea making facilities
The only thing better than a round of pointless international fixtures...
...Is a round of some pointless international fixtures (with a few meaningful ones thrown into the equation) with some tasty lower-league ation thrown in as well. Here's me rundown of the weekend's fixtures:
- Denmark to beat Sweden. The Danes won the reverse fixture 1-0 (although in reality it was more comfortable than that), and a win at home to an underwhelming Sweden side will secure their place (and therefore that of many, many, many cases of Carlsberg) in South Africa next summer
- Republic of Ireland and Italy to draw. Italy have been somewhat unconvicing in this qualifying campaign, with many of their household names now the wrong side of 30. They were very poor in the Confederations Cup this summer, and could only manage a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture against Giovanni Trappattoni's improving yet functional side
- Germany to beat Russia. You can never rule out those Germans, even against Arshavin and co. They're also worth seriously considering to win the thing outright.
For my final tip, I'm going to dip into the Scottish Second Division and advise y'all to back Stirling Albion to beat Arbroath
'Mon Don Cowie for Scotland
Friday 2 October 2009
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 4th October
My Thoughts
This weekend sees another BIG TOP 4 OMG THE APOCALYPSE IS COMING SUPERAMAZING FORD SUPER FANTASTIC SUNDAY SHOWDOWN!!!!! in the Premier League (suppose the La Liga is Better League isn't such a great name), with Chelsea and Liverpool going tete-a-tete, once bar staff throughout the nation return their tables and chairs to their rightful places after the Old Firm game.
Both sides, it has to be said, were disappointing on Champions League duty in midweek; although Chelsea laboured to a 1-0 win away at APOEL Nicosia, Liverpool were horsed 2-0 away at Fiorentina, which resulted in one unhappy fat Spanish waiter.
The Verdict
Given their recent results (and the tendency of these matches to be somewhat underwhelming affairs), expect a mixture of tedious dullness and dull tediousness. Due to Petr Cech's suspension, Chelsea will start with either Hilarious or the slightly more amusing Ross Turnbull in goals. In attack, Nicolas Anelka v Jamie Carragher looks set to resemble an encounter between a bulldozer and a Lambourghini. For Liverpool, Javier Mascherano could return to kick people (the number of hatchet men who could be deployed in this one on both sides is staggering, all that would be needed would be Lee Cattermole and Kearney from the Simpsons), while Daniel Agger played for the reserves this week, but is unlikely to be considered.
These matches, as previously stated, have a tendency to be underwhelming, last season's Champions League ding-dong between these two notwithstanding, and it could well come down to which side's two players, I mean star players, perform on the day (Torres and Jukebox Gerrard for Liverpool, Drogba and Rank Lampard for Chelsea), in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair.
The Bet
Under 2.5 goals is available at a general 8/11- these games are also notorious for slow starts, therefore 0-0 at half-time at 17/10 with expekt.com is worth considering. Also, as previously stated, due to the "combative" nature of some of the players likely to be on show, a sending-off in the game at a general 5/2 could be a shout.
This weekend sees another BIG TOP 4 OMG THE APOCALYPSE IS COMING SUPERAMAZING FORD SUPER FANTASTIC SUNDAY SHOWDOWN!!!!! in the Premier League (suppose the La Liga is Better League isn't such a great name), with Chelsea and Liverpool going tete-a-tete, once bar staff throughout the nation return their tables and chairs to their rightful places after the Old Firm game.
Both sides, it has to be said, were disappointing on Champions League duty in midweek; although Chelsea laboured to a 1-0 win away at APOEL Nicosia, Liverpool were horsed 2-0 away at Fiorentina, which resulted in one unhappy fat Spanish waiter.
The Verdict
Given their recent results (and the tendency of these matches to be somewhat underwhelming affairs), expect a mixture of tedious dullness and dull tediousness. Due to Petr Cech's suspension, Chelsea will start with either Hilarious or the slightly more amusing Ross Turnbull in goals. In attack, Nicolas Anelka v Jamie Carragher looks set to resemble an encounter between a bulldozer and a Lambourghini. For Liverpool, Javier Mascherano could return to kick people (the number of hatchet men who could be deployed in this one on both sides is staggering, all that would be needed would be Lee Cattermole and Kearney from the Simpsons), while Daniel Agger played for the reserves this week, but is unlikely to be considered.
These matches, as previously stated, have a tendency to be underwhelming, last season's Champions League ding-dong between these two notwithstanding, and it could well come down to which side's two players, I mean star players, perform on the day (Torres and Jukebox Gerrard for Liverpool, Drogba and Rank Lampard for Chelsea), in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair.
The Bet
Under 2.5 goals is available at a general 8/11- these games are also notorious for slow starts, therefore 0-0 at half-time at 17/10 with expekt.com is worth considering. Also, as previously stated, due to the "combative" nature of some of the players likely to be on show, a sending-off in the game at a general 5/2 could be a shout.
You're the man, eh?
Here's Graeme's Silly Bet for the weekend:
It's Fifa 10 Friday so been slow in getting the post out.
No pumping occurred for Rangers last week, made me look foolish and silly. Still, I think Aberdeen are a really poor side and fully expect Kilmarnock to cause them problems. Tasty low scoring draw methinks.
1-1 draw available at 5/1 wth William Hill
Hawick to lose is a bet I wouldn't touch at the moment for fear of police investigation
OLD FIRM MADNESS!!!!
Ranger are still abject, mind you so are Celtic
3-0 Celtic available at 28/1 with William Hill
Premiership: Man Utd v Sunderland (Shifty will be attending this game. K Stand Tier 2)
Any goal scored in injury time, 15/4. Amidst the recent controversy (what controversy? Ed) could be worth a fateful cheeky punt
Good luck over the weekend, whatever market you bet in
xxxxxxx
It's Fifa 10 Friday so been slow in getting the post out.
No pumping occurred for Rangers last week, made me look foolish and silly. Still, I think Aberdeen are a really poor side and fully expect Kilmarnock to cause them problems. Tasty low scoring draw methinks.
1-1 draw available at 5/1 wth William Hill
Hawick to lose is a bet I wouldn't touch at the moment for fear of police investigation
OLD FIRM MADNESS!!!!
Ranger are still abject, mind you so are Celtic
3-0 Celtic available at 28/1 with William Hill
Premiership: Man Utd v Sunderland (Shifty will be attending this game. K Stand Tier 2)
Any goal scored in injury time, 15/4. Amidst the recent controversy (what controversy? Ed) could be worth a fateful cheeky punt
Good luck over the weekend, whatever market you bet in
xxxxxxx
Rangers v Celtic, Sunday 4th October
My Thoughts
A mixed week in European competition for these two sides: Rangers were taught a lesson in counterattacking football from Master Manolo Jimenez and his grade-A students from Sevilla, while Celtic will be pleased that they didn't lose their game. Both teams also have mixed news on the injury front: after their midweek result, Rangers have doubts over Madjid Bougherra (who is lost somewhere in last Tuesday), Davie Weir (as discussed in a previous entry on here), Sasa Papac (who has blurred vision) and Jerome Rothen, who was found in the Sevilla laundry room last night, still in the shorts pocket of their right-back, Abdoulay Konko. The NHS have also been in contact with Rangers regarding Allan McGregor's goalkeeping jersey, requesting that it come with a health warning, due to the likelihood of it causing seizures. Celtic, on the other hand, look set to have Andreas Hinkel and Paddy McCourt (Old Firm side in signing Irish player shocker) back in contention, after both players missed their 1-1 draw with Rapid Vienna.
The Verdict
Last season's Old Firm games were as tight as ever, save for Rangers' 4-2 win at Celtic Park last August. The last 4 meetings between the 2 sides have produced just 4 goals, so we're certainly due a few. Given the horsing that Rangers back line took at the hands of Sevilla, Tony Mowbray must be optimistic for his first Old Firm derby as a manager. Celtic to edge it, perhaps by the odd goal in 5
The Bet
Of course, my talking up of the possibility of goals could turn out to be a load of rubbish. If so, 1-0 Rangers is available at 7/1 with totesport, with 1-0 Celtic 15-2 at Skybet. However, over 3.5 goals is also worth a look, currently available at 10/3 with Extrabet. The same bookie also offers 5/2 on Scott McDonald to score anytime, following his goal in midweek and after scoring at Ibrox last season. For Rangers, Nacho Novo has been the scourge of Celtic in the past- he's available at 3/1 with Skybet to score anytime
A mixed week in European competition for these two sides: Rangers were taught a lesson in counterattacking football from Master Manolo Jimenez and his grade-A students from Sevilla, while Celtic will be pleased that they didn't lose their game. Both teams also have mixed news on the injury front: after their midweek result, Rangers have doubts over Madjid Bougherra (who is lost somewhere in last Tuesday), Davie Weir (as discussed in a previous entry on here), Sasa Papac (who has blurred vision) and Jerome Rothen, who was found in the Sevilla laundry room last night, still in the shorts pocket of their right-back, Abdoulay Konko. The NHS have also been in contact with Rangers regarding Allan McGregor's goalkeeping jersey, requesting that it come with a health warning, due to the likelihood of it causing seizures. Celtic, on the other hand, look set to have Andreas Hinkel and Paddy McCourt (Old Firm side in signing Irish player shocker) back in contention, after both players missed their 1-1 draw with Rapid Vienna.
The Verdict
Last season's Old Firm games were as tight as ever, save for Rangers' 4-2 win at Celtic Park last August. The last 4 meetings between the 2 sides have produced just 4 goals, so we're certainly due a few. Given the horsing that Rangers back line took at the hands of Sevilla, Tony Mowbray must be optimistic for his first Old Firm derby as a manager. Celtic to edge it, perhaps by the odd goal in 5
The Bet
Of course, my talking up of the possibility of goals could turn out to be a load of rubbish. If so, 1-0 Rangers is available at 7/1 with totesport, with 1-0 Celtic 15-2 at Skybet. However, over 3.5 goals is also worth a look, currently available at 10/3 with Extrabet. The same bookie also offers 5/2 on Scott McDonald to score anytime, following his goal in midweek and after scoring at Ibrox last season. For Rangers, Nacho Novo has been the scourge of Celtic in the past- he's available at 3/1 with Skybet to score anytime
Wednesday 30 September 2009
I'm still calling it UEFA CUP Thursday
Ahoy-ahoy, and welcome to my write-up of this week's UEFA Cup fixtures. Last night was something of a mixed bag in terms of results for UK teams; Fiorentina beating Liverpool 2-0 (wish I'd seen that coming; Fiorentina were 3/1 outright), Arsenal eventually triumphing over an Antonis Nikopolidis-inspired Olympiakos 2-0, and Rangers being given a lesson in counter-attacking football (David Weir was clearly affected by the loss of his wife, who threw herself infront of the King's horse in the Derby. We're very sorry for your loss, Davie. And move on)
Moving on then, expect some of the following to happen (again, odds to follow):
Moving on then, expect some of the following to happen (again, odds to follow):
- Everton to beat BATE Borisov
- Dinamo Bucuresti to beat Panathinaikos
- FC Twente to beat Steaua Bucuresti
- Galatasaray to beat Sturm Graz
- AS Roma to beat CSKA Sofia
- Sporting CP to beat Hertha Berlin
Wonder if Davie would like a pen?
Friday 25 September 2009
Real Madrid v Tenerife, Saturday 26th September
My Thoughts
Ola! A return here to the blog for La Liga for the first time this season, with what looks like a relatively straightforward home banker for Real Madrid. With 4 wins from 4 league games thus far, the early signs are promising for the second galactico revolution. Mind you, that much was to be expected, given that they've yet to play a top side (i.e. Barcelona) domestically. Newly-promoted Tenerife have managed to win both their home games so far, including a 1-0 victory in midweek over Athletic Bilbao, while suffering 4-0 and 1-0 defeats at Mallorca and Zaragoza respectively. Both sides have a Basque midfield schemer by the name of Alonso in the centre of the park- brothers Xabi and Mikel look set to line up against one another on Saturday.
The Verdict
It's very difficult to make a case for anything other than a convincing home win. Manuel Pellegrini may be tempted to rest players ahead of Champions League action in midweek, but he still has an outrageously strong squad of players to call upon. Tenerife's early away form doesn't exactly inspire. Home win
The Bet
Outright, Madrid are too short to back at a general 1/8. However, given that they have kept clean sheets in their last 3 league games, and Tenerife have scored just 3 times this season (none away), Madrid to win to nil is worth a look. Given their attacking prowess, it's also worth considering over 2.5 goals
Ola! A return here to the blog for La Liga for the first time this season, with what looks like a relatively straightforward home banker for Real Madrid. With 4 wins from 4 league games thus far, the early signs are promising for the second galactico revolution. Mind you, that much was to be expected, given that they've yet to play a top side (i.e. Barcelona) domestically. Newly-promoted Tenerife have managed to win both their home games so far, including a 1-0 victory in midweek over Athletic Bilbao, while suffering 4-0 and 1-0 defeats at Mallorca and Zaragoza respectively. Both sides have a Basque midfield schemer by the name of Alonso in the centre of the park- brothers Xabi and Mikel look set to line up against one another on Saturday.
The Verdict
It's very difficult to make a case for anything other than a convincing home win. Manuel Pellegrini may be tempted to rest players ahead of Champions League action in midweek, but he still has an outrageously strong squad of players to call upon. Tenerife's early away form doesn't exactly inspire. Home win
The Bet
Outright, Madrid are too short to back at a general 1/8. However, given that they have kept clean sheets in their last 3 league games, and Tenerife have scored just 3 times this season (none away), Madrid to win to nil is worth a look. Given their attacking prowess, it's also worth considering over 2.5 goals
Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley Prices
Tottenham Hotspur to win outright: best price 4/11 with Paddy Power
Jermain Defoe to score anytime: best price 6/5 Coral
Peter Crouch to score anytime: best price 13/10 Paddy Power
Jermain Defoe to score anytime: best price 6/5 Coral
Peter Crouch to score anytime: best price 13/10 Paddy Power
Thursday 24 September 2009
Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley, Saturday 26th September
Aleksandr the Meerkat
My Thoughts
Spurs are on something of a roll right now. Two defeats against top 4 sides notwithstanding, they have a 100% record this season, with their latest win coming in the Carling Cup, 5-1 away at Preston, a match in which a Peter Crouch hat-trick very nearly destroyed our very reality. Next to (OK, below) Crouch is Jermain Defoe, the Aleksandr the Meerkat to Crouch's BFG, who has been scoring goals for club and country this season as if it's going out of fashion.
Burnley, meanwhile, have fitted most of the "smaller club promoted to Premier League" stereotypes; hyperactive young manager, attacking football, great home record, backed by a fervent crowd, but dreadful away. 9 points from their opening 3 home games? Perfect. 0 points (and 0 goals) from their opening 3 away games? Room for improvement methinks, particularly after Tuesday's 3-2 Carling Cup defeat at Barnsleh.
The Verdict
Expect to see Harry Redknapp whingeing about his total lack of centre-backs for this game- injuries to Dawson, Woodgate, King (again) and Bassong mean that Vedran Corluka and Tom "Pudding" Huddlestone are likely to play together at centre-back. However, Burnely themselves have injury worries, with striker Martin Paterson likely to be out for some time, and keeper Brian "Tubs" Jensen doubtful. Given Spurs' general good form, and Burnley's lack of away form, expect a home win.
The Bet
Tottenham are likely to be too short to back outright with any real value (apologies, readers- this writer is currently at work and therefore unable to access gambling sites. Prices will follow), but Crouch and Defoe both surely must be considered as anytime scorers. Over 2.5 goals is also worth a look, after these two sides' epic ding-dongs in the Carling Cup last year
Wednesday 23 September 2009
Graeme is surprisingly well organised
Here's Graeme's Silly Bet for the weekend:
Hi all,
Aberdeen are due a pumping. Cue Rangers
Penalty awarded and scored, 3/1 @ William Hill
Boyd to score more than 2 goals, 11/2 @ William Hill
In other action this coming week another hilariously inept punt could come in the form of Man City going off the boil big time in their Monday night clash against West Ham
As Shifty hinted last week, West Ham's improved strike force (Alessandro Diamanti was rumoured to be at the Chelsea training ground today, showing John Terry how to take a penalty- Ed) are capable of causing an upset against the (slightly) bigger guys. City are not a happy ship at the moment. Problems such as a lack of discipline, an extremely loose defence (I would love to include the Rhona Jappy-based line and Youtube link Graeme sent me in his original draft, but for legal reasons I must not- Ed) and the potential abscence of Tevez (who?Ed), David Bellamy, Santa Claus, Robinho and Adebayor could cause Mark Hughes to suffer an almighty case of mental fucknuggetry on the touchline, and hopefully follow his team's example and actually smack a ballboy.
In other words, West Ham might just fancy their chances
Away win for West Ham, 7/1 @ William Hill
(game being shown in Number 2 Baker Street, so see y'all there guys)
Hi all,
Aberdeen are due a pumping. Cue Rangers
Penalty awarded and scored, 3/1 @ William Hill
Boyd to score more than 2 goals, 11/2 @ William Hill
In other action this coming week another hilariously inept punt could come in the form of Man City going off the boil big time in their Monday night clash against West Ham
As Shifty hinted last week, West Ham's improved strike force (Alessandro Diamanti was rumoured to be at the Chelsea training ground today, showing John Terry how to take a penalty- Ed) are capable of causing an upset against the (slightly) bigger guys. City are not a happy ship at the moment. Problems such as a lack of discipline, an extremely loose defence (I would love to include the Rhona Jappy-based line and Youtube link Graeme sent me in his original draft, but for legal reasons I must not- Ed) and the potential abscence of Tevez (who?Ed), David Bellamy, Santa Claus, Robinho and Adebayor could cause Mark Hughes to suffer an almighty case of mental fucknuggetry on the touchline, and hopefully follow his team's example and actually smack a ballboy.
In other words, West Ham might just fancy their chances
Away win for West Ham, 7/1 @ William Hill
(game being shown in Number 2 Baker Street, so see y'all there guys)
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