I'm Still Here!

Ahoy sailors! Thought I'd better post an article-type on this here blog of mine (it's been a while and all that) about the soccer, eh? So here are some musings from yesterday's action:

• Car Crash FC (aka Arsenal) had a bit of a disaster yesterday, and the injury to Laurent Koscielny has heightened calls for Arsene Wenger to sign another central defender. Among the names suggested has been Gary Cahill, however there must be doubts about Cahill's ability to fit into Arsenal's playing style, however good he may be aerially. The clearest example of this would be Cahill's pass completion stats from Bolton's 4-0 opening day win at QPR, in which Cahill succesfully completed only 28 of 39 passes (71.79%), which pales into comparison Koscielny's stats from Arsenal's 0-0 draw at Newcastle of 50 of 59 (84.75%) succesfully completed passes


• 2 more players linked with Car Crash FC have been Phil Jagielka of Everton and Scott Dann of Birmingham. Looking at the same stats for these 2 players, Jagielka didn't exactly cover himself in glory, losing possession in the build-up to QPR's goal, and completing only 74.45% of his passes successfully, with Dann faring only slightly better in Birmingham's 1-1 draw at home to Spurs last season (77.14%). Arsene Wenger's hunt for a ball-playing centre-back is likely to lead him overseas


• Sunderland's Simon Mignolet didn't impress in their 1-0 defeat at home to Newcastle- his positioning for Ryan Taylor's goal was terrible, so much so that it would have been rude of Taylor not to put the ball in the far corner (the goal he conceded at Liverpool last weekend was from a similar position on the other side). Mignolet's distribution was poor as well, with less than half of his passes finding a team-mate. It's therefore difficult to see why Mignolet is in Steve Bruce's team ahead of the far superior Craig Gordon


• I quite like the Guardian chalkboards

Also, y'all may have noticed the absence of a full-blown season preview. This is mainly due to the fact that I've been superuberdeuberdeduper busy, but also because of the situation where the season starts before the close of the transfer window. Therefore, were I to write at the beginning of August, for example, that Stoke City needed a new striker, Tony Pulis could then read this and go out and sign the required frontman

What we've learned so far this season

Here are a few things we've learned so far this season, along with a few tips for this weekend:

Darren Bent- the gift that keeps on giving
Last season, this writer was quick to jump on the Darren Bent 1st goalscorer bandwagon, and made a healthy profit from doing so. He's started this season in good form as well, with 5 Premier League goals so far, 2 of them 1st, as well as getting off the mark internationally. This afternoon he's available at a shade under 7/1 1st goalscorer with Unibet, and 23/10 anytime scorer with Boylesports- outstanding value against a Manchester United defence that has conceded 9 goals in 5 away games in all competitions so far this season

Sir Alex Ferguson may have a sense of humour
When asked about Javier Hernandez's winning goal against Valencia, Sir Alex's response was along the lines of "he needs to work on his physique, but he's a fantastic finisher, it's like shelling peas to him". Hernandez bears the moniker "Chicharito" on the back of his shirt. Chicharito in Hernandez's mother tongue, Spanish, of course means "Little Pea". I'm here all week (Sir Alex isn't, though- he's not talking to anyone from the media for a month)

Steve McClaren is Wolfsburg boss, and was FC Twente boss last season
Commentators, pundits, journalists, WE ALL KNOW THIS. You do not need to remind us every time 1 of the 2 aforementioned teams comes up in conversation

A couple of tasty lower-league bets for you this afternoon
Rochdale (4th in League 1, unbeaten in their last 6, 2-2-0 away) are a very tasty 9/4 to win away at 11th place Exeter, while in League 2 table-topping Port Vale (won their last 5, 4-0-0 away from home) are a shade over (OVER!) 2/1 with Victor Chandler away at 12th-placed Oxford (no wins in their last 3, 1-1-2 at home). Tuck in to those, folks

Alessandro Del Piero: still got it
Il Pinturicchio has been in sparkling form for a stuttering Juventus side this season, and although the 35-year-old has yet to score in Serie A, he has been a joy to watch, creating opportunities for team-mates (and keeping new signing Simone Pepe mostly on the bench) and, along with Serbian winger Milos Krasic, providing flair and incision in an otherwise functional Juventus side. Extrabet offer 9/1 on him to get off the mark with the 1st goal in tomorrow night's game away to Inter

Betting Tips for Saturday 24th April

Firstly, Shifty and Graeme would like to apologise for the lack of activity on here this last week: this is mainly due to the after effects of consuming gallons of champagne, in celebration of the astonishing achievements of Ross County FC in getting to the Scottish Chup Final- apologies also for getting the preview of that game totally wrong. I said it would be close, but the small loss anyone following the blog may have suffered on that will have been more than offset by Don't Push It triumphing in the Grand National.

Onto this weekend:

• Wolves v Blackburn has the look of being a particularly dreadful game of football. Wolves have drawn 3 of their last 4 games 0-0, and have managed just 10 goals at Molineux all season, with most of their better results coming away from home- witness their 3-1 win last month away at West Ham. While Mick McCarthy's men have struggled at home, Blackburn have been pretty dreadful away, with a 2-4-11 record, managing just 11 goals on the road, shipping 36. Although with Rovers safe, and Wolves nearly there, there is a chance both of these managers may take the shackles off their sides and go out to try and entertain, neither McCarthy or Sam Allardyce are known for being anything other than hoof-it merchants, and one suspects both would be quite happy with another 0-0 draw. Also, given their lack of potency (and both sides' improving defensive records), under 2.5 goals is certainly worth a shout
• A regular favourite bet of this blog is Darren Bent 1st Goalscorer, and it's well worth backing again when Sunderland visit Hull. Iain Dowie's side are in dire straits, and not just because they're Iain Dowie's side- 3 points from safety (effectively 4 considering their wretched goal difference) with only 3 games to play, Hull need a drastic change in fortune in order to stay up, and it just does not look like it's coming- indeed, safe in mid-table, Sunderland are worth backing to pick up only their 2nd away win of the season
• Down at the bottom of the SPL, St Mirren meet Kilmarnock in a relegation dogfight, and expect it to be exactly that- neither side score many goals (Kilmarnock's total in the SPL away from home this season: 4. That's 0.23 per game) and neither side are playing the most stylish stuff at the moment. Have a think about under 2.5 goals in this one as well

Sunderland v Tottenham, Saturday 3rd April

My Thoughts

This looks like being one of those matches that the end of the season tends to produce- while Sunderland's tally of 35 points should be enough to keep them out of a relegation battle, Tottenham still have everything to play for, as they attempt to hold onto 4th place.

The Verdict
A run of 1 defeat in their last 6 has taken Sunderland clear of relegation trouble. However, their mid-season slump left them far too far back to consider a challenge for the UEFA Cup places- additionally, they perhaps have only 3 players in their squad looking to push for a World Cup place- therefore, Steve Bruce's men may well feel that they can take their foot off the gas in this one. Tottenham, on the other hand, will know that, with Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool (Aston Villa must now be considered out of the running for 4th place) all having very winnable games this weekend, and with Harry Redknapp's men still to face Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, 3 points at the Stadium of Light are essential. This is the sort of game that, in previous years, Tottenham would most likely have struggled in. However, this is a much-improved Tottenham team that has learned how to grind out results- witness their current 5-match winning run. It will be tight, but they are well capable of making it 6 wins in a row

The Bet
Tottenham to win outright can be backed at a best price of 23/20 with William Hill. Alternatively, it's worth playing safe with Tottenham 2X, available at a best price of 1/3 with Stan James. As previously mentioned on this blog, Darren Bent 1st scorer is, in this writer's opinion, the best value bet in the Premier League this season- it's available at 5/1 with William Hill. Now, add all these predictions together, and methinks you'd end up with a correct score of Sunderland 1 Tottenham 2- such a bet is available at 17/2 with Skybet

Some random bets that be taking my interest

With the Premier League back in action this weekend, here are a few more bets that look like providing good value:

• Sunderland v Arsenal over 2.5 goals- best price 4/6 with Coral. Arsenal have scored a preposterous 55 goals in 19 games in all competitions this season (10 of their 11 Premier League games this season have featured over 2.5 goals), and even without the injured Robin van Persie and Nicklas Bendtner, Arsene Wenger's side still carry plenty of goalscoring menace for a Sunderland side whose 1st choice keeper Craig Gordon is out injured. Also factor in the current goalscoring form of Darren Bent for Sunderland, and the fact that Arsenal's defence may well include Mickael Silvestre at left-back. Statistically speaking, Arsenal's 11 Premier League games have featured an average of 4.54 goals per game (this is actually insane), while Sunderland's matches themselves have averaged 3.25 per game. If you're feeling really brave, one could even be tempted by over 3.5 goals, available at a best price of 6/4 with Boylesports
• Chelsea really ought to be beating Wolves quite comfortably, and a best price of a general 1/6 reflects this. Therefore, it's necessary to look elsewhere if you want a decent value bet on this game. If you're looking for a correct score, then anything between 2-0 and 6-0 is probably worth considering. Chelsea haven't conceded at home since the opening day of the season, and after getting a pasting from Arsenal last week, it's difficult to imagine Wolves being terribly adventurous in this one (also consider that seeing footballers in blue adidas shirts probably brings Wolves striker Kevin Doyle out in a cold sweat right now), so, at a best price of 8/11 with Blue Square, Chelsea to win to nil could represent decent value
• Birmingham v Fulham is one of those games that, at first glance, looks like resulting in a draw. Alex Mcleish's Birmingham side have drawn their last 2, while Roy Hodgson's Fulham have drawn 3 of their last 5. The draw can be backed at a best price of 23/10 with Victor Chandler. Another bet worth considering here is under 2.5 goals- neither side have been exactly potent infront of goal this season (Birmingham have scored just 4 goals in 6 Premier League home games this season, with Fulham managing 7 in 6 away games), while at the same time having reasonably solid defensive records, therefore Skybet's 4/6 on under 2.5 goals is worth considering

Weekend Betting Review

Here's how my tips fared this weekend:

Aston Villa to beat Chelsea @ 7/2: 1 unit returns 4.5
HT/FT Villa/Villa: 1 unit returns 0
HT/FT Draw/Villa @ 9/1: 1 unit returns 10
Double Chance: Draw/Villa @ evens: 1 unit returns 2
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 1 unit returns 0

Sunderland to beat Liverpool @ 11/4: 1 unit returns 3.75
Sunderland and Liverpool to draw: 1 unit returns 0
Own goal being scored: 1 unit returns 0

Total outlay: 8 units
Total return: 20.25 units
Total return - outlay: 12.25 units
Return/expenditure: 253.125%

Remember, Official Blog Party today at 1pm, Morrisons Pub, Stirling

Sunderland v Liverpool, Saturday 17th October

My Thoughts

With speculation mounting that both of Liverpool's players, Gerrard and Torres, will miss this game, expect money to be pouring into bets backing the draw and Sunderland- indeed Liverpool outright have gone from 4/6 to 11/10 in some places today, although this writer will stop short of predicting that they could drift as far as 96/1.

As for Sunderland, having personally seen them (from way up in K Stand Tier 2) very nearly beat Manchester United, this writer feels qualified to say that they are a very decent side. Hard-working lads such as Phil Bardsley and Lee Cattermole would most likely fancy their chances at tackling a Robot XI featuring a mechanised Michelin Man in goals, Sergeant Bash and Killalot from Robot Wars at full-back, Megatron from Transformers in central defence and a midfield 7 consisting entirely of Storm Troopers (with regards to Saturday's match, one cannot help but feel Lucas and Ryan Babel would not enjoy said battle quite as much), such is their willingness to run, kick, tackle and be general hard bastards for the Wearisde cause. Guile and industry is provided by talented midfielders such as Lorik Cana, Steed Malbranque and Andy Reid. Kieran Richardson also plays for Sunderland. Up top, Darren Bent and Kenwyne Jones are arguably the in-form strike partnership in the Premier League.

Contrast this with Liverpool's situation, where they were second best in their last game away at Chelsea, and now having to face a tricky away trip to an in-form Sunderland side off the back of what has been an expensive international week, and it's all of a sudden very possible to make a case for Sunderland to get some sort of result in this one.

The Verdict
Forget Chelsea last weekend, this is where we're going to get the best idea of what are left of Liverpool's title-winning credentials. No Gerrard, no Torres, fatigued players (Mascherano and Lucas were late back from South America this week), if Benitez's squad (and it will be the depth of their squad as much as anything that will be tested on Saturday) are really up to the task, then Saturday is the time to prove it. Nevertheless, there's a real vibe, an air of confidence that Steve Bruce has brought to Sunderland, and this writer fancies them to take another result off a top 4 side this weekend.

The Bet
As alluded to earlier, Sunderland's odds are shortening, and will most likely continue to do so right up until kick-off. For the win, Bruce's men are currently around a general 11/4, and are unlikely to drop below 2/1 prior to kick-off, with the draw following a similar pattern from its current 12/5. In terms of alternative markets, have a wee think about an own goal being scored, best price 15/2 with Paddy Power. Last week Anton Ferdinand put through his own net for Sunderland, with John Mensah having done likewise the previous weekend. There's a belter of a quiz question been doing the rounds recently as well: which current Premier League English player has scored the most Premier League goals against Liverpool?
Answer to follow next week

Shifty's Season Preview Part 8 of the clock is ticking....

Portsmouth

The proposed takeover simply has to go through if Portsmouth are to stay up: there has been minimal investment in what was already a limited squad: the departures of Glen Johnson and Peter Crouch have only served to make the situation even worse. New striker Frederic Piquionne simply has to settle in quickly and score goals, otherwise Pompey are in trouble. Can David James, now 39, be expected to perform miracles in goals again, behind a fragile defence?

Verdict: Expect them to be near the bottom by January, regardless of the takeover situation. Another miraculous escape may then be required.

Stoke City

In Stoke, the local NHS have advised season-ticket holders at the Britannia Stadium to consider investing in a neck brace, for their own health, due to the amount of time the ball spends in the air during Stoke games. Tony Pulis' side were far from the prettiest side in the league, but they were effective, at least to an extent. Their main concern will be that old cliche, Second Season Syndrome. James Beattie will be required to continue his form from the 2nd half of last season throughout the whole of this season (a good season may even lead to a World Cup place for him). In the midfield, Dean Whitehead looks a decent addition, while Matthew Etherington gives the side some much-needed width. Defensively, Abdoulaye Faye and Ryan Shawcross were nigh-on insurmountable at times, and since when did Thomas Sorensen look like an accomplished Premier League keeper?

Verdict: Once again, it won't be pretty, and it may require another couple of shrewd Januray signings, but expect Stoke to survive.

Sunderland

Steve Bruce takes over at the Stadium of Light, and will be expected to improve on last season's dreadful end to the season. He has already started that process by bringing in a number of players, namely Darren Bent (therefore cementing Spurs' status as something of a Sunderland feeder club), Fraizer Campbell, Paulo da Silva and Lee Cattermole. Cattermole will not half add bite to a talented but potentially lightweight midfield containing the likes of Kieran Richardson, Andy Reid and Steed Malbranque. Bent and Campbell will provide goals, although the defence will still be a worry for Bruce. However, there is enough quality (with further investment in the squad, should it be required, likely to come in January) there to suggest mid-table is very much achievable.

Tottenham Hotspur
Harry Redknapp has been at it again, buying and selling players for fun. In have come Kyle Naughton, Sebastien Bassong and Peter Crouch, with numerous players departing to make way. Last season, rather astonishingly, Spurs' defensive record at home was actually rather good, with Gomes, after some early-season jitters, growing immensely in confidence as the season went on. The signings of Naughton and Bassong, as well as the return from injury of Alan Hutton, should help ensure Spurs don't concede many once again. In midfield, Luka Modric began to excel as the season went on, and will be the main creative force again. On the right wing, if Aaron Lennon could actually cross the ball, then he would be a fearsome prospect. Spurs certainly have quantity in attack, with Crouch, Defoe, Pavlyuchenko and Robbie Keane all competing for 1 or 2 starting spots.

Verdict: The squad would appear to be there for Spurs to finish in the top half.

Bolton Wanderers v Sunderland, Saturday 9th May

My Thoughts

Bolton are, to all intents and purposes, safe. 39 points on the board with 3 games to go, Gary Megson's side can probably start planning their summer holidays safe in the knowledge that another season in the top flight is forthcoming. The same cannot be said for Sunderland, who, despite a recent 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Hull City, are still in big trouble, and probably deserve to be, given their recent form. The Black Cats have managed just 3 wins away from the Stadium of Light this season, and go to the Reebok Stadium on Saturday knowing that only Manchester United and Fulham have won there since January. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw a 4-1 victory for Bolton which was also Roy Keane's last game in charge. Ricky Sbragia takes Sunderland to the Reebok Stadium knowing that his job as well is not 100% secure. With the exception of the reverse fixture, meetings between these 2 sides have tended to be low-scoring affairs. With Bolton needing just 1 point to mathematically secure top-flight football next season, and a poor Sunderland side desperate for any kind of result, this writer won't be expecting a free-flowing goalfest.

The Verdict
It's difficult to see this being a high-scoring game. In 17 home games this season, Bolton have scored 20 goals (averaging 1.17 per game) and condeded 20. Sunderland have managed to score just 12 goals in 17 away games (averaging 0.70 per game), and have conceded 26 (averaging 1.52 per game). With neither side in particularly great form, I'd be thinking a draw here.

The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 12/5 with Boylesports (who also happen to be Sunderland's shirt sponsors). Alternatively, have a look at under 2.5 goals available at a general 4/6