Weekend Betting, Saturday 27th November

Scottish Category 1 referess may be on strike this weekend, but this writer isn't, so here's a look at this weekend's somewhat truncated fixture list:

• Aston Villa v Arsenal looks interesting, with one team managed by a Frenchman featuring plenty of talented youngsters who like to play quick, counter-attacking football but have been prone to late defensive lapses in recent weeks against...erm...you get the picture. Arsenal have lost their last 2 and must also now do without Cesc Fabregas for a couple of weeks, however they do have alternatives for his position, with Samir Nasri or Tomas Rosicky likely to play in Fabregas' advanced central midfield position, meaning they still possess a potent goal threat for an Aston Villa defence that is not always the most mobile. Villa themselves possess considerable attacking threat, with Ashley Young and Barry Bannan in particular thriving under the management of Gerard Houllier, and more than capable of troubling an Arsena backline that has looked distinctly unsettled without Thomas Vermaelen. All this makes the generally available 10/11 on over 2.5 goals worth snapping up
• After their impressive start, West Brom's form has nosedived, with the Baggies now dowin in 16th place in the league. Everton, meanwhile, have recovered somewhat form their traditional awful start, and can be backed at a general 4/7 to beat Roberto di Matteo's side at Goodison Park
• Quick word of warning for anyone blindly sticking Celtic on their accumulator tomorrow. Their opponents, caley thistle, are unbeaten in the league away from home for 364 days. That's not the sort of stat you oppose lightly
• It's El Clasico on Monday night (yes, Monday night. It's unknown if anyone's actually pleased about this), with Barcelona v Real Madrid set to feature a dramatic contrast in playing styles and mentalities. Madrid will travel to the Camp Nou set on not losing the game and will most likely look to frustrate Barcelona, therefore it's worth backing them to manage this at least until half time, with 0-0 half-time available at 5/2 with Blue Square

"Wonder if Brewster likes Willie. Maybe he'd be convinced if Willie got Wood"

Weekend Betting, Saturday 16th October, and the incontinence problem among bookmakers

Getting these on the now as I'm off to Old Trafford tomorrow. K Stand Tier 2

Here are a few tips for the weekend, then:

• Arsenal, despite their recent aberration at home to West Brom, should have enough to comfortably dispose of a Birmingham side whose recent form can best be described as patchy. Boylesports' 1/3 is probably about right, along with over 2.5 goals at a general 1/2 in a game that usually produces them
• Aston Villa host Chelsea in the 5.30pm game, a fixture that Villa won 2-1 last season. Given this, and that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Lampard and Alex amongst others, the 4/1 generally available on Villa seems good value. This is a fixture that has caught Chelsea out in the past, indeed a trawl through this very blog's archives will produce this writer tipping Villa in this fixture last season. Also, you'll never guess where this writer was the day of that game. Also worth considering in this game is John Carew 1st goalscorer- the giant Norwegian will be relishing the prospect of facing a potentially makeshift Chelsea defence, and is available at a best price of 10/1 with bwin
• There are a few interesting bets to be had in the Championship this weekend. Doncaster to win away at Scunthorpe are great value at 15/8 with Stan James, while another away win in Yorkshire could be seen at Bramall Lane, with Burnley available at a general 7/4 to triumph over inconsistent Sheffield United. The best value bet, though, might just be Norwich to win away at QPR at an outstanding 9/2 with bet365. QPR's excellent start to the season has been well-documented, but Norwich under Paul Lambert have been quietly impressive on their return to the Championship and currently reside in 3rd place. The 9/2 on the Canaries could be a nice single if you're feeling brave, alternatively the double chance Norwich-Draw is available at a general 11/10
• It's official: the bookies have shat themselves! Many have suspended betting on Stirling Albion v Dundee tomorrow, and those that are still running markets have severely shortened Stirling Albion after the redundancies at Dundee today. Of the odds still available, Hills' 6/5 as as good as you'll find (they were 7/4 yesterday), and should be snapped up- Albion must surely now be favourites given the shedding of playing and coaching staff forced upon Dundee
• As regular readers of this blog will know, this writer tends to shy away from betting on his own teams, but the 4/1 offered by Ladbrokes on Ross County to win away at Dunfermline is very tempting, especially considering the return last weekend of strikers Andy Barrowman and Steven Craig for the Staggies

Remember the name, Shinji Kagawa

With the Premier League Season Almost Over...

It's time to have a look back and see how my predictions for the season have fared. I've waded through this here blog's archives to dig out how I thought each team would get on this season, and will post them on here over then next couple of days. Here goes:

Arsenal

What I Said: If luck is on their side, they could come very close to the title:
What Actually Happened: Title challengers well into the spring before a late-season, Fabianski-inspired collapse left them in something of a no-man's land behind the top 2 but ahead of the madding, Champions League-chasing crowd

Aston Villa
What I Said: Departures from an already stretched squad could lead to a long, disappointing season, and Villa sliding down the table
What Actually Happened: Disappointment in the cups, but Villa have just about managed to hang onto the coat-tails of the top 4

Birmingham City:
What I Said: Likely to be dour and unambitious yet resolute and organised, look best placed of the newly promoted sides to stay up
What Actually Happened: ALex McLeish's side stayed up comfortably, with an excellent defensive record, albeit without many goals. Joe Hart's performances have surely earned him a place in the England squad for the World Cup

The rest will follow soon....

Tips for Sunday 25th April

So, to follow up my Saturday tips, here are another couple for Sunday's games:

• Aston Villa have found some form again at just the right time, winning 3 of their last 4, and should overcome a fading Birmingham City's side, whose season has tailed off somewhat in recent weeks, with Alex McLeish's side failing to win any of their last 7 games
• Burnley have gone from being a team who had good home form but shipped bucketloads away to being a team who just ship bucketloads, and are unlikely to adopt a safety0first, cautious approach now that they know they must win all of their remaining games in order to have any chance of staying up. Their opponents are Liverpool, who are travel-sick in more ways than one- still awaiting their first away win in 2010, it remains to be seen what effect (if any) their unorthodox travel plans for their midweek European game will have had on them. They too will know that they must go all out for the win, in order to maintain any chance of finishing 4th. Even without Fernando Torres, they still carry a goal threat, particularly against Burnley's shaky defence, so this game could well see over 2.5 goals

Burnley v Aston Villa, Saturday 21st November

My Thoughts

After a week of international football, it's back to league business for these two in the 2nd Claret and Blue Derby of the season. Both sides should be realtively fresh going into this one- neither side had many players away on international duty. Burnley's current 10th position in the league is based on their excellent home form (5-0-1), with only Wigan's trip to Turf Moor last month resulting in a home defeat. By the same token, though, their away form is terrible (0-1-5). One aspect of their home record to take into consideration is that they have yet to win at home against a good side in good form- when Everton were defeated 1-0, they were still recovering from their 6-1 destruction at the hands of Arsenal, and the Manchester United side defeated at Turf Moor was some way short of top form. One must also take note of how unfortunate Hull City were to lose 2-0 against Owen Coyle's men, due to a number of questionable refereeing decisions that day. Aston Villa's away form over the last 2 seasons has always been respectable; indeed, many feel that their counter-attacking style is better suited to playing away from Villa Park, and has led to them already clinching away wins at Anfield and St Andrews.

The Verdict
This looks like being one of the more interesting matches of a Premier League weekend which features what will no doubt be edge-of-the-seat thrillers such as Stoke v Portsmouth and Blackburn v Bolton. Villa are actually due an away win- they have not won in their last 4 league away games, and go into this one fresh off the back of stuffing Burnley's Lancashire rivals Bolton 5-1. With Gabriel Agbonlahor rediscovering his goalscoring touch (and up against a defence that has already conceded 25 Premier League goals), this writer fancies Villa to win this one

The Bet
Aston Villa can be backed to win outright at a best price of 5/4 with Skybet. Alternatively, if you fancy backing Gabriel Agbonlahor, he can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 2/1 with Coral, or for a slightly more random anytime scorer, 4 of Villa's 8 Premier League goalscorers this season have been defenders- Stephen Warnock's yet to get in on that action, though- the ex-Blackburn left-back can be backed to score anytime against his old club's biggest local rivals at 12/1 with Skybet

Weekend Betting Review

Here's how my tips fared this weekend:

Aston Villa to beat Chelsea @ 7/2: 1 unit returns 4.5
HT/FT Villa/Villa: 1 unit returns 0
HT/FT Draw/Villa @ 9/1: 1 unit returns 10
Double Chance: Draw/Villa @ evens: 1 unit returns 2
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 1 unit returns 0

Sunderland to beat Liverpool @ 11/4: 1 unit returns 3.75
Sunderland and Liverpool to draw: 1 unit returns 0
Own goal being scored: 1 unit returns 0

Total outlay: 8 units
Total return: 20.25 units
Total return - outlay: 12.25 units
Return/expenditure: 253.125%

Remember, Official Blog Party today at 1pm, Morrisons Pub, Stirling

Aston Villa v Chelsea Odds

Half-time/Full-time:
Draw/Aston Villa: 9/1 Coral
Aston Villa/Aston Villa: 8/1 totesport
Double Chance: Aston Villa / Draw: evens with Paddy Power

Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 13/5 with Coral

Aston Villa v Chelsea, Saturday 17th October

My Thoughts

After the international break, we're back to league business this weekend, and this fixture looks one of the more interesting on the list. Aston Villa's form this season is good- they are in a fairly solid 7th position, with key men such as Gabriel Agbonlahor and James Milner beginning to find their form again. One of Villa's key strengths is the ability of their wide players, Milner and Ashley Young, to find space and cross the ball for powerful centre-forwards such as Agbonlahor, John Carew and Emile Heskey. Admittedly, they lack a plan B (apart from the pace of Agbonlahor against teams playing a high defensive line), but, given the narrow midfield preferred by Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti this season, it is a tactic that could well give some reward against Chelsea- expect Ancelotti to favour the more defensively-minded right-back Branislav Ivanovic over the quicksilver Jose Bosingwa against Young.

One of Ancelotti's main concerns going into this game will no doubt be fatigue- many of his players were in various far-flung corners of the earth this week on international duty. Indeed, Michael Ballack is an injury doubt having been on the receiving end of a challenge from club team-mate Yuri Zhirkov in last Saturday's Russia v Germany game. Ancelotti, who does welcome Petr Cech back from suspension, must also wrestle with the prospect of a Champions League encounter with Atletico Madrid in midweek.

The Verdict
Plenty to consider here. Both sides have had players away on international duty this week, although Chelsea's squad (which is not actually that big) will have been tested more, and Chelsea's full-backs must now prepare themselves for a thorough examining by Villa's wingmen, who will be key. If they are to win this one, Chelsea must impose themselves in the middle of the park, and look to isolate Villa's attack (ominously for Villa, Frank Lampard has gone 9 games without scoring for Chelsea). However, Villa's recent record at home to Chelsea is very good, and this writer fancies them to edge this one. Jose Mourinho's last Premier League defeat as Chelsea manager came at Villa Park- could it be the scene of Ancelotti's first?

The Bet
Stat attack: Villa have scored 70% of their goals in the 1st half of matches so far this season, and have conceded 67% of their goals in the 2nd, which points to lots of high-tempo stuff early on, before sitting back, possibly through fatigue. Odds will follow on HT/FT Villa-Villa and Draw-Villa, as well as Lampard anytime scorer, but Villa to win outright can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square

Shifty's Mega Season Preview Part 1 of however many it takes

Well, well, well, folks, it's season preview time!
With the Premier Leagues in the UK kicking off this weekend (although how "Premier" a leage can be considered with Burnley in it is a point for debate), this writer is going to sum up the chances (and give some betting tips) for the season ahead. So, in no particular order, here are my thoughts on the teams:

Arshavin (i.e. Arsenal)
They've been here before: Key, experienced players leaving, with Arsene Wenger deciding to trust young talent over spending megabucks on established players. How is it different this time, you ask? Well, Wenger looks set to change his side's shape this season to a more fluid (apparently it's possible) 4-3-3, with a front line consisting of any 3 from the rejuvenated (and fully fit again) Eduardo, the brilliant Arshavin, van Persie, the rapid Walcott, young Vela and even younger Wilshere. They also have Nicklas Bendtner. Defensively, Kolo Toure has departed, with Belgian international centre-back Thomas Vermaelen joining from Ajax. Manuel Almunia has firmly established himself as 1st choice, while Bacary Sagna impressed in his first season. Expect Cesc Fabregas to be on form again, dictating, pushing on, and numerous other things besides. The anticipated return from injury of Tomas Rosicky will add another option in midfield.

Verdict: They could go either way from last season's 4th place. They undoubtedly have goals in them from a very talented set of forwards, who should all revel as part of a front 3. A lot will depend on how new signing Vermaelen settles into defence. If luck is on their side, they could come very close to the title.

Aston Villa
Manchester United weren't the only team whose season was turned last time out by the intervention of Federico Macheda: after going down 3-2 at Old Trafford, Villa struggled badly, and ended the season with something of a whimper. Thus far, their transfer dealings have been unconvincing to say the least: while Gareth Barry's departure was to be expected, Villa have yet to see him properly replaced, the arrivals of Stewart Downing (out injured until December, and even then his position of left-midfield is firmly occupied by Ashley Young) and Fabian Delph (who is still a teenager, and thus cannot be expected to perform twice a week for 10 months in the exemplary manner Barry did) notwithstanding. The retirement of Martin Laursen is a blow, exacerbated by the departure of Zat Knight to Bolton. The arrival of Habib Beye gives Villa another option at right-back, but they are still weak in the centre: a lot will be asked of Curtis Davies. But perhaps the more worrying outcome of their game at Old Trafford last season was the discovery that Villa are in actual fact a rather limited side, with a somewhat primitive plan A of long balls for the height of Carew or Heskey to knock down for the quickslilver Agbonlahor, and no plan B. Added to this a possibly extensive (if not extensive, then most likely morale-shattering) Europa League campaign, and this could be (assuming they don't bring in some real quality between now and September 1) a long, hard, and ultimately disappointing season for Villa.

Verdict: Without a new central midfield, and reinforcements in attack and at central defence, Villa could slide down the table, especially considering the improvements made by some teams who finished below them. They are 40/1 to be relegated. Think about it

Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Sunday 24th May

My Thoughts

The task for Alan Shearer's side here is simple: they must win. While Hull are just 1 point (and with an inferior goal difference) ahead, Shearer will know not to expect any favours from Sir Alex Ferguson, who will surely take a side (this writer is reluctant to use the word "weakened" to describe the side that Manchester United will field on Sunday: the likes of Darron Gibson, Danny Welbeck, Tomasz Kuszczak and Richard Eckersley would be likely starters for Hull) to the KC Stadium with 2 eyes on Rome. He will also be aware that, while an away win is required, Newcastle have managed just 2 of them this season in the Premier League. Their recent 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Middlesbrough proved something of a false dawn, followed as it was by a 1-0 defeat at home to Fulham. Not only did they lose the match, they also lost the services of centre-back (and many supporters' player of the season) Sebastien Bassong to a red card. He may not fancy Championship football next season.

Having said all that, Villa haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders of late themselves. A 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford (appreciative nod to Kiko Macheda) not only extinguished any hope Martin O'Neill's side had of Champions League football next season, but also exposed Villa as something of a long-ball outfit, reliant on the knock-downs of Carew or Heskey in order to utilise the pace of Young and Agbonlahor. They have won just once since that match. Their home record this season (6-9-3) does leave a lot to be desired, and will need to be improved upon next season if they are to break into the top 4. Villa were poor in both their last 2 games, only claiming a point against Middlesbrough due to some woeful defending. Their season is very much ending with something of a whimper, the lack of depth in their squad having been exposed.

The Verdict
Newcastle have managed only 3 clean sheets away from home this season. It gets worse- all 3 of those were kept by Shay Given. However, at this stage of the season, it would be folly to get too bogged down by statistics. Instead, this match will require Newcastle's players to be brave, to show character, and to have quality to take any chances that may come their way. The side will be well aware that they have massively underachieved this season, and now must pull off a result here to ensure this season is a disappointment, not a disaster. They might just do it.

The Bet
Newcastle can be backed at 6/4 to stay up with Skybet. There is just about enough quality in the side to get a result against an out-of-sorts Aston Villa side. In terms of the match itself, Newcastle can be backed at a best price of 11/5 to win with extrabet. Now let's hope theses prices stay where they are, after the massive pre-match movements on the prices last night