Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group A

Right, time for me to start looking forward to the World Cup, with kick-off in South Africa just 3 weeks away. Between now and then, I'll be going through each group individually with this blog's usual mix of statistical-based analysis and witty banter, with Graeme hopefully weighing in with his tuppence worth along the way

Group A
This looks like being a surprisingly open group, with a below-par France up against hosts South Africa, an ever-improving Mexico and a Uruguay side containing a number of individuals playing at the highest level in Europe

France
After a disastrous EURO 2008, the question everyone was asking was "Who will replace Raymond Domenech as coach?" The answer was, er, Raymond Domenech (although Laurent Blanc takes over after the tournament). France were unconvincing to say the least in qualifying, only making it through by their fingertips. Domenech has again made some baffling selection decisions (Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema didn't even make the final 30, while Andre-Pierre Gignac did) and there's still a great deal of uncertainty in some positions (William Gallas has yet to find a regular central defensive patner, while the identity of their main striker is anyone's guess). If they don't get going quickly, then another embarassing group-stage exit beckons

South Africa
World Cup host ntions have traditionally performed well in their home tournaments, but South Africa aren't being considered as potential winners by anyone outside the most optimistic branches of their own, vuvuzela-playing support. A look at their squad reveals a distinct lack of experience at the highest level (only 5 of their squad play in one of Europe's strongest leagues), and coaching changes, along with mixed friendly results, have not helped their cause. Still, they were impressive in last summer's Confederations Cup, reaching the semi-finals, and are arguably best-placed to sneak into the 2nd round if either France or Mexico slip up

Mexico
Javier Aguirre returned to the helm after Sven-Goran Eriksson's disastrous tenure as coach came to an end, and has led the team to a 5th consecutive World Cup- they went out in the 2nd round in each of the last 4 tournaments, so the target for Aguirre's men is simple: the quarter-finals are the target. With an increasing number of players plying their trade in Europe (one to watch: left-winger Andres Guardado) and plenty of options in attack (soon-to-be Manchester United centre-forward Javier Hernandez among them) supported by a strong defence (although doubts linger over Rafael Marquez's match fitness), Aguirre's side are well-equipped to advance from the group stage- finishing top will be of importance to Mexico so as to avoid a likely meeting with Argentina, their conquerors after extra-time in 2006 (y'all must surely remember THAT Maxi Rodriguez goal), in the 2nd round

Uruguay
The last time Uruguay got beyond the group stages of the World Cup (Italia 90), their manager was one Oscar Washington Tabarez. Back in 2006, Tabarez returned to the fold, and led Uruguay to South Africa, but only just- they needed to play-off victory over Costa Rica after finishing 5th in the South American qualifying group. In attack they do have some quality individuals, most notably Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro, while behind them expect the usual "physical" stuff from Uruguay. It's a style unlikely to make them many friends, and it's unlikely to see them get past the group stage

So that's the tems in group A, here's a few bets worth thinking about in Group A:
France to win 4 points: best price 4/1 with Bodog
Mexico stage of elimination- quarter-finals: best price 11/2 with bet365
Soth Africa top goalscorer Teko Modise: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Uruguay group goals scored lass than goals conceded: best price 20/19 with bwin

France v Ireland, Wednesday 18th November

My Thoughts

There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.

The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.

The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.

World Cup Qualifying Play-Offs 2nd Legs, Wednesday 18th November

Preamble

The last remaining World Cup places are up for grabs in Europe tomorrow night, and, as ever, this intrepid writer has had his head buried in stats in order to preview these games for y'all. The play-offs are always tense, dramatic occasions, a chance for relative unknowns to become national heroes (in New Zealand, the government are being lobbied to change the name of the national Westpac Stadium to Rory Fallon Park; in 1997, a young Gianluigi Buffon made his Italy debut in a snowy play-off match in Moscow) and for national heroes to become, er, zeroes. Over the last 2 days, this writer has been furiously analysing previous qualifying matches and play-off results (I've been off work with a broken metatarsal), and come to some interesting conclusions:

• Ukraine have never progressed to an international tournament through the play-offs. Indeed, in 6 matches in 3 play-offs, they have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 3. Their 0-0 draw away in Greece was their first draw away from Ukraine in the play-offs, and even that result came thanks to a questionable decision to rule out a Fanis Gekas goal
• Over the course of the 6, 8 or 10 matches (depending on the qualifying format, there have been either 3, 4 or 5 play-off matches in 1998-2006 (there were none for EURO 2008)), there have been, in 4 of the 5 tournaments, 4 home wins. With Portugal and Russia securing home wins in the 1st legs on Saturday, it would be reasonable to assume 2 home wins tomorrow night
• Ireland have a mountain to climb in France. Of the 5 teams to have previously lost the 1st leg of their tie at home, none have managed to qualify, indeed only Scotland have managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg after losing the 1st leg at home. Ireland's play-off record against European nations is also poor- they have now won none of their last 5 play-off matches, and only scored 6 goals in 5 away qualifying matches. They've also failed to beat France in 3 competitive internationals over the last 12 years
• As a general rule, if you lose the 1st leg, you're out. Over the past 12 years, out of 14 teams who have lost the 1st leg of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify
• 2nd legs tend to be more open than 1st legs. Over 20 1st legs, an average of 2.45 goals were scored per game. However, in the 2nd legs, this increased to 2.7 goals per game
• Despite the previous stat, don't expect goals galore in the Ukraine v Greece match. Their 4 previous competitive internationals have produced a meagre total of just 6 goals. Consider also Ukraine's defence, which only conceded 6 goals throughout the entire qualifying campaign

So there you have some initial stats to ponder, lovingly computed for y'all by this writer. Full previews of the games to follow

The Dos and Don'ts of International Weekends

Given that there aren't as many matches on this weekend (and, I'll level with you, readers: I don't consider mayself knowledgeable enough about the current squads of Austria and Lithuania to write up their match tomorrow), I thought I'd impart some of my "wisdom" when it comes to betting on internationals:

• DO research in your normal way: past results, league tables, form guides, notes on players, etc. The pointers to results for club teams remain the same in international football
• DO back Germany at 15/8 away to Russia tomorrow- an absolute stunner of a price at Coral. Speaking of great prices on the Germans, they are a massive 11/1 to win the World Cup
• DON'T just put the big teams to beat minnows on outright. These bets, even on an accumulator, offer no value. France at 1/100 to beat the Faroe Islands is a somewhat pointless bet, likewise Portugal at 2/11 to beat Hungary. Bookies are notoriously stingy on these games, due to the number of casual punters who will pile in on them
• DO think about the supposed smaller sides, especially at the moment. Liechtenstein are biting back, after years of ineptitude. Andorra recently scored a goal. Bosnia, once also-rans, are on the verge of a play-off place. Montenegro are an emerging outfit, with talent in attack such as Stvean Jovetic and Mirko Vucinic. And, last but by no means least, earlier on in this qualifying campaign: Switzerland 1 Luxembourg 2
• DON'T pay £4.99 or however much this Kentaro mob are charging to watch Ukraine v England. One bookmaker, whose name would suggest that they are open every single day of the year, are streaming it free of charge
• DO look away from the outright markets for value. As discussed, France are not worth backing outright to beat the Faroe Islands, however over 4.5 goals (and, let's face it: France could well stick 5 or more past the Faroes, given the quality they have in attack) is worth a small stake at evens with Sporting Bet
• Do take a cheeky look at the lower league action taking place this weekend. This writer would recommend taking a punt on Charlton, Stirling Albion and Queens Park on Saturday