Well, I had a go at the start of the knockout stage, with mixed results. Here's my definitive World Cup Team of the Tournament (we'll be adopting a 4-2-3-1 formation). Any suggestions or questions (for example, why would a police force tell us someone had been tasered when their autopsy shows no such signs?) then please leave a comment
Goalkeeper: My initial team had Uruguay's Fernando Muslera, but he has looked shaky in the knockout stages. Most folk will probably opt for Iker Casillas, but as regular readers of this blog will know, I'm obnoxious and perverse about these things, and enjoy being different. Step forward (not too far forward, though, or you'll get lobbed) Portugal's Eduardo
Right-back: Maicon got the number 2 shirt initially, but Brazil's early exit combined with the outstanding performances of Phillipp Lahm means the Germany captain gets the nod ahead of Holland's Gregory van der Wiel and Uruguay's Jorge Fucile
Centre-backs: Ricardo Carvalho and Ryan Nelsen got the nod 1st time round, but both are displaced by players whose teams have advanced further. Gerard Pique and Arne Friedrich have both been outstanding
Left-back: Again, a player who starred early on is replaced by someone who has taken his team all the way- Giovanni van Bronckhorst replaces Fabio Coentrao here
Central midfield: This team will play with 2 deep-lying midfielders as opposed to just Rafael Marquez in the initial team. Bayern Munchen pair Mark van Bommel and Bastian Schweinsteiger have both excelled, and their familiarity with each other will be an asset at the heart of this team
Right wing: Thomas Muller has emerged as an absolute megastar from relative obscurity at this tournament- he's a leading contender for the Golden Boot and Young Player of the Tournament, and takes the place of Alexis Sanchez in this team. Much has been made of Miroslav Klose's pursuit of Ronaldo's World Cup scoring record; come 2018, Muller could have that record of 15 well within his sights
Left wing: Arjen Robben. The Dutch taught everyone how to manage a player carrying an injury into the tournament. Never left the bench until 20 minutes from the end of the dead rubber group game against Cameroon, Robben was then able to add another dimension to Bert van Marwijk's functional outfit, and was influential in the knockout stages. Incidentally, Robben's inclusion brings the number of Bayern Munchen players in this team to 5
Playmaker: Wesley Sneijder
Sneijder has been a class above at this World Cup, adding guile to an at times pragmatic Holland team, scoring 5 goals in the process, practically unheard of for a midfielder
Striker: Now here's an interesting one. The 3 players behind this guy have all had successful tournaments because of the ability of the striker to occupy defenders, sometimes to the detriment of their own scoring record. That still doesn't mean Heskey's any use, though. This rules out deploying David Villa (who has spent much of the tournament starting wide left and moving towards goal) or Diego Forlan (who has found much joy playing just off the front, and with Suarez and Cavani operating in the channels ahead of him) in this position- were the team opting for a basic 4-4-2, then they would probably be the partnership of choice, but as aforementioned on this blog, 4-4-2 is dead. One trait that this team would have is the ability to break quickly down the flanks through Muller and Robben (Villa could have been an option on the left, but would not provide the natural width offered by Robben), therefore requiring a finisher inside the box. Step forward Bayern Munchen player number 6, Miroslav Klose
Showing posts with label World Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Cup. Show all posts
Saturday, 10 July 2010
Saturday, 26 June 2010
Shifty's Team of the World Cup so far
Basically, I have long held the opinion that anything Mick Mccarthy can do, I can do better. So, when I saw the Irishman with the broad Yorkshire accent pick his team of the tournament on the Guardian website this morning, I decided to have a go myself. Unlike Mccarthy, who picked 11 players in no shape, with many of them out of position, I have decided to try and pick something which could work as a team, in a 4-3-3 formation.
Goalkeeper: Fernando Muslera (Uruguay). World Cup Sticker Book Status: Got
One of only 2 goalkeepers to have kept a clean sheet in all 3 of his side's games so far (Muslera got the nod just infront of Portugal's Eduardo, who would warm the bench for this side if there was one). Muslera has been commanding behind an ever-changing defence both in terms of personnel and shape- Uruguay have altered between a back 3 and a back 4 during the tournament so far. He has dealt with everything that has been thrown at him so far, and, with the Uruguayan front line lead by Diego Forlan in fine form so far, a continuation of his current form could see Uruguay go a long way
Right-back: Maicon (Brazil). World Cup Sticker Book Status: Got
Brazil's rampaging right-back edges out Holland's talented but rash Gregory van der Wiel and Germany captain Philipp Lahm in a position where, apart from the three aforementioned number 2s, no-one has really stood out: Argentina's Jonas Gutierrez is yet to be properly tested defensively, Portugal have used 3 so far, Spain's Sergio Ramos has yet to hit top form and Glen Johnson has looked shaky. Chile play with 3 central defenders, of whom Gary Medel looks like having the attributes required to play this position
Left-back: Fabio Coentrao (Portugal). World Cup Sticker Book Status: Not in book
One of the stars of the tournament so far, the 22-year-old only started to estabish himself for Benfica this season, before making the breakthrough into Carlos Queiroz's side. He has defended dilligently, and has ventured forward at every opportunity, getting involved in a number of Portugal's 7 goals against North Korea, using his pace to get into advanced positions, where his crossing has been excellent. Expect rumours of Real Madrid/Barcelona/Premier League interest to appear soon
Centre-backs: Ricardo Carvalho (Portugal, Got) and Ryan Nelsen (New Zealand, Got)
Carvalho has once again demonstrated his ability at the highest level, as well as an understanding of the dark arts of the game (and getting away with it) that is uneuqalled on the world stage. New Zealand's performances were nothing short of heroic, with Nelsen the perfect embodiment of that, displaying not only immense bravery but also good organisational and communication skills in marshalling the less experienced players around him, namely Tommy Smith and Winston Reid, both of whom should also get honourable mentions in this category
Defensive Midfield: Rafael Marquez (Mexico, Got)
Nominally a centre-back for Barcelona, Marquez has been used at the base of Javier Aguirre's 3 man midfield, the position he plays for this team. He brings the ball out of defence well, with short, quick, simple passes to his more forward-thinking team-mates, as well as providing useful height at set-pieces, as seen in the opening game, along with cover in central defence.
Central Midfield: Juan Sebastian Veron (Argentina, Need) and Angel Di Maria (Argentina, Got)
Seba Veron has been a joy to watch so far- such composure on the ball, with a fantastic passing range ('tis a very rare sight, Veron giving the ball away) and a ferocious strike. At 35, he no longer has the legs to run up and down the park for 90 minutes, but next to him he has the livewire Di Maria, who normally plays as a left-winger for Benfica (linking up with Coentrao), but an ingenious move by Diego Maradona has seen him stationed nominally in central midfield for Argentina alongside Veron, but with license to push on.
Outside-Right: Alexis Sanchez (Chile, Got)
Arguably the player of the tournament so far. Chile have been ultra-entertaining so far, with Sanchez on the right wing the pick of a very exciting young group. He has bags of tricks, plenty of pace and a great work ethic, tracking back when required. Another thing he does well that has drifted out of the game is that he holds his position wide when not in possession, thereby stretching the game and restricting any forward runs from the opposing full-back. His club Udinese will do well to keep him, although if they do lose him, they're likely to receive a transfer fee in excess of £20 million
Outside Left: Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal, Got)
Has single-handedly led Portugal's attack. Has shown only flashes of his immense talent, but expect him to improve as the tournament goes on. Along with Sanchez, he just edges out Landon Donovan, Giovani dos Santos, Lionel Messi and Lukas Podolski for these positions
Centre-Forward: Diego Forlan (Uruguay, Got)
Forlan has been imperious so far, dictating the pace of the game from a slightly deeper position. He would operate just off the front in this team, moving away from the opposition centre-backs, allowing Ronaldo to move onto the shoulder of the last defender. Another contender for this position would be Gonzalo Higuain, but Forlan's all-round game has been much better than the poacher Higuain
Saturday, 19 June 2010
The World Cup So Far Part 1
After the first week of matches, here are a few things we've learned from South Africa 2010 so far:
The Contenders- South American sides on top
At this stage, the most likely winners of the tournament are Argentina and Brazil. Diego Maradona's side possess such potency going forward that, even with some slight uncertainties over their defence (one has to wonder whether or not makeshift right-back Jonas Gutierrez would cope with an Arjen Robben up against him, with only Javier Mascherano likely to offer any help from midfield), they could simply outscore teams with their array of attacking talent. Brazil have the ominous look of a team that, unlike previous Brazil sides, can sacrifice flair and grind out results even when they are not playing well. They have no such doubts at right-back, with Maicon likely to be a key attacking outlet. Also among the favourites at this stage are Germany (despite their loss to Serbia, they should still make at least the quarter-finals) and Holland, who, like Brazil, have added extra steel and organisation to their undoubted attacking talent- they should also be able to add Arjen Robben to their side in the later stages.
Of the other heavyweights, Spain have work to do. Along with the Barcelona side from whom some of this seleccion is drawn, their playing style has been found out. Jose Mourinho and Ottmar Hitzfeld have both shown that, by congesting the centre of the park when not in possession and forcing the opposition into the wide areas, and by avoiding trying to retain possesstion in the centre and by moving the ball quickly to the front, Spain and Barcelona can be stopped. Vicente Del Bosque seems reluctant to change his ways, although he may have to consider starting with Jesus Navas on the right wing to try and beat Honduras, who will no doubt copy the Hitzfeld model. France are heading for a disgraceful early exit and deservedly so. A similar fate may well await England- even if they make it out of their group, a tough 2nd round tie awaits them against either Germany, a vibrant Ghana or a steely Serbia. Italy, even taking into account their tradition of starting a tournament slowly. don't look anything like potential winners- quarter-finals at best for them on current form.
Of the other sides, Chile, Uruguay and Mexico have all looked impressive- it would be no surprise to see at least 1 of them in the quarter-finals. Chile's madcap 3-3-1-3 formation, combined with some slick, accurate passing at high tempo made them a joy to watch against Honduras, with Alexis Sanchez on the right of the 3 man attack particularly impressive. Uruguay were solid if unspectacular in their opener against France, but were a class above against South Africa- coach Oscar Tabarez moving Diego Forlan into the trequartista position working beautifully, as Forlan ran the show, continually finding space behind South Africa's flat midfield (more on that later). Mexico were equally impressive with their fluid 4-3-3 system, full of neat passing and movement, with Guillermo Franco the pivot in attack off whom the livewire Giovani Dos Santos and Carlos Vela can operate.
The Formations- The Death of 4-4-2
As I mentioned before, the South American sides have had the edge so far- but intriguingly, one thing that all the contenders mentioned have in common is that none of them (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay) play 4-4-2. Argentina play a quasi-4-3-3, which almost becomes a diamond 4-4-2 when Messi drops away from Higuain and Tevez. Having Mascherano in the DMC positions allows Di Maria the freedom to push on as an orthodox left-winger, with Veron (or Maxi Rodriguez) playing more centrally. Brazil play a fairly regulation 4-2-3-1, with 2 holding midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo allowing Maicon and Michel Bastos bombing forward from the full-back positions. Germany also play 4-2-3-1, although their 2 central midfield players (Schweinsteiger and Khedira) are given more license to push forward- in actual fact, when Phillip Lahm pushes on, their system almost becomes a back 3, with the more defensively-minded Holger Badstuber sitting back and moving more centrally, with right-sided centre-back Arne Friedrich covering Lahm. For Holland, replace the 2 DMCs with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, until they both get suspended. Mexico, as aforementioned, play a very fluid 4-3-3, with the emphasis being on moving the ball quickly and accurately, with width being provided by Carlos Salcido from left-back, and Efrain Juarez from the right. Chile's 3-3-1-3 formation has made them arguably the best team to watch so far- their game against Spain should be a treat, while Uruguay moved from a back 3 against France to a 4-3-1-2 against South Africa designed to allow Diego Forlan to dictate the game against a flat 4-4-2.
The Contenders- South American sides on top
At this stage, the most likely winners of the tournament are Argentina and Brazil. Diego Maradona's side possess such potency going forward that, even with some slight uncertainties over their defence (one has to wonder whether or not makeshift right-back Jonas Gutierrez would cope with an Arjen Robben up against him, with only Javier Mascherano likely to offer any help from midfield), they could simply outscore teams with their array of attacking talent. Brazil have the ominous look of a team that, unlike previous Brazil sides, can sacrifice flair and grind out results even when they are not playing well. They have no such doubts at right-back, with Maicon likely to be a key attacking outlet. Also among the favourites at this stage are Germany (despite their loss to Serbia, they should still make at least the quarter-finals) and Holland, who, like Brazil, have added extra steel and organisation to their undoubted attacking talent- they should also be able to add Arjen Robben to their side in the later stages.
Of the other heavyweights, Spain have work to do. Along with the Barcelona side from whom some of this seleccion is drawn, their playing style has been found out. Jose Mourinho and Ottmar Hitzfeld have both shown that, by congesting the centre of the park when not in possession and forcing the opposition into the wide areas, and by avoiding trying to retain possesstion in the centre and by moving the ball quickly to the front, Spain and Barcelona can be stopped. Vicente Del Bosque seems reluctant to change his ways, although he may have to consider starting with Jesus Navas on the right wing to try and beat Honduras, who will no doubt copy the Hitzfeld model. France are heading for a disgraceful early exit and deservedly so. A similar fate may well await England- even if they make it out of their group, a tough 2nd round tie awaits them against either Germany, a vibrant Ghana or a steely Serbia. Italy, even taking into account their tradition of starting a tournament slowly. don't look anything like potential winners- quarter-finals at best for them on current form.
Of the other sides, Chile, Uruguay and Mexico have all looked impressive- it would be no surprise to see at least 1 of them in the quarter-finals. Chile's madcap 3-3-1-3 formation, combined with some slick, accurate passing at high tempo made them a joy to watch against Honduras, with Alexis Sanchez on the right of the 3 man attack particularly impressive. Uruguay were solid if unspectacular in their opener against France, but were a class above against South Africa- coach Oscar Tabarez moving Diego Forlan into the trequartista position working beautifully, as Forlan ran the show, continually finding space behind South Africa's flat midfield (more on that later). Mexico were equally impressive with their fluid 4-3-3 system, full of neat passing and movement, with Guillermo Franco the pivot in attack off whom the livewire Giovani Dos Santos and Carlos Vela can operate.
The Formations- The Death of 4-4-2
As I mentioned before, the South American sides have had the edge so far- but intriguingly, one thing that all the contenders mentioned have in common is that none of them (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay) play 4-4-2. Argentina play a quasi-4-3-3, which almost becomes a diamond 4-4-2 when Messi drops away from Higuain and Tevez. Having Mascherano in the DMC positions allows Di Maria the freedom to push on as an orthodox left-winger, with Veron (or Maxi Rodriguez) playing more centrally. Brazil play a fairly regulation 4-2-3-1, with 2 holding midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo allowing Maicon and Michel Bastos bombing forward from the full-back positions. Germany also play 4-2-3-1, although their 2 central midfield players (Schweinsteiger and Khedira) are given more license to push forward- in actual fact, when Phillip Lahm pushes on, their system almost becomes a back 3, with the more defensively-minded Holger Badstuber sitting back and moving more centrally, with right-sided centre-back Arne Friedrich covering Lahm. For Holland, replace the 2 DMCs with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, until they both get suspended. Mexico, as aforementioned, play a very fluid 4-3-3, with the emphasis being on moving the ball quickly and accurately, with width being provided by Carlos Salcido from left-back, and Efrain Juarez from the right. Chile's 3-3-1-3 formation has made them arguably the best team to watch so far- their game against Spain should be a treat, while Uruguay moved from a back 3 against France to a 4-3-1-2 against South Africa designed to allow Diego Forlan to dictate the game against a flat 4-4-2.
Wednesday, 9 June 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group G
This looks set to be one of the most interesting, and high-scoring, groups of the World Cup. Brazil are, along with Spain, favourites to lift the trophy on July 11. They should qualify comfortably from a group that also contains their B team (Portugal), Sven Goran Eriksson's Ivory Coast, and Kim Jong-Il's North Korea.
Brazil
Dunga's outfit topped the South American qualification section, and won last summer's Confederations Cup in South Africa. Their array of attacking talent is as impressive as ever- Sevilla frontman Luis Fabiano will lead the line, with midfield support likely to come from Benfica's industrious wideman Ramires on the right, Robinho on the left and Kaka in the middle in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with backup being provided in the form of Elano, Julio Baptista and Nilmar- Lyon forward Michel Bastos, who has been deputising at left-back, could also be pushed back into his natural position. But this Brazil team lacks the flair, the joie de vivre, the kamikaze attacking instincts of previous Brazilian sides. Dunga, very much a destroyer himself, will send his side out with 2 defensive midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo- both players' remit does not extend into the opposing half, and neither has the range of passing to be able to open the game up. Expect Maicon to get the nod at right-back over Dani Alves to provide an extra outlet on the right, but no-one has made the left-back position their own. Expect them to be solid in defence nonetheless- Inter's Julio Cesar has established himself as 1st choice, and, unusually for Brazilian keepers, he's actually good, although he's a slight inury doubt for the start of the tournament. Should he miss out, Spurs' Heurelho Gomes has proved himself to be an able deputy. They should progress comfortably enough from this group (the quality of the opposition they face is not of a sufficient standard to turn them over), however they could struggle to break down a side who can contain their front 4. They also face a probable 2nd round match against a Chile side who could simply outscore them, or even worse Spain.
Portugal
It's unfair to describe this lot as Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. After all, they have a top-class goalkeeper in Eduardo of Sporting Braga, the defence features Chelsea pair Paulo Ferreira and Ricardo Carvalho, Porto's midfield anchorman Raul Meireles.....you know what, this is just Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. Coach Carlos Queiroz struggled to get the best out of Ronaldo during qualifying, with CR9 scoring a total of 0 times as Portugal limped through qualifying, needing a play-off victory over Bosnia. There are doubts over the fitness over Real Madrid central defender Pepe (who has been bewilderingly deployed in midfield), and, Ronaldo besides, there is a dearth of top-class players. Queiroz's attacking options were further limited this week with Nani being ruled out of the tournament after injuring himself performing an acrobatic overhead kick in training (no, really)- add to this concerns over the fading influence of Deco (against Brazil, Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo will surely have him for breakfast) and, Ronaldo apart, a lacklustre front line (apart from THAT howitzer of a free-kick for Porto against Inter a few years back, Hugo Almeida has done little of note), and an earlyish exit beckons. It's hard to see them getting beyond the last 16
Ivory Coast
The Sven Goran Eriksson World Tour makes its latest stop-off with Ivory Coast for this summer, before a probable move to a biggish European club. His squad arrive in South Africa after a poor showing in the African Nations Cup earlier this year, having been knocked out in the quarter-finals by a so-so Algeria side. Eriksson has had little time to stamp his authority on a side that possesses real strength and quality in some positions, but is desperately lacking in others, so much so that Hibs centre-back Souleymane Bamba is a likely starter alongside Kolo Toure. Behind a positionally clueless, foul-o-matic clown and Souleymane Bamba is Boubacar Barry, who has looked out of his depth at this level. The midfield is strong defensively and physically, with Didier Zokora and Yaya Toure among the best in La Liga, however there is a real lack of creativity- while Zokora and Toure are both excellent at winning the ball and are competent ball-carriers, neither of them have an extensive passing range. In attack, much (if not all) depends on the fitness of Didier Drogba- while the likes of Kader Keita, Salomon Kalou, Aruna Dindane and Gervinho can all play just off a frontman (or as wide attackers in a 4-3-3), none of them can lead the line with the physicality and hold-up ability of Drogba. With Drogba likely to miss what looks like being the crucial opening game against Portugal, the Ivorians may suffer a similar fate as they did in 2006, where a strong, well-fancied team were drawn in a "Group of Death" with Holland and Argentina, and were edged out.
North Korea
Underdogs? Yes. Underestimated? For sure. North Korea have been written off as mere cannon fodder, set for a gubbing in all 3 games. They have already gone down in World Cup folklore for their fantastically audacious attempt to increase their attacking options at the World Cup by registering striker Kim Myong-Won as their 3rd goalkeeper. They came through almost 2 years of qualifying matches to get to the tournament, conceding just 5 goals in the process. Their draw is undeniably tough, although facing such strong sides may actually help them: during qualifying, even against lesser lights such as Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia, coach Kim Jong-Hun set his side out with 5 across the back, looking to utilise striker Jong Tae-Se's pace and power on the counterattack. Against sides with the attacking prowess of Brazil and Portugal, Shifty's Coaching Manual states that the best way to neutralise attack-minded sides is to station 9 or 10 men deep, behind the ball. There will be no expectations or criticisms of the side from home (dissent isn't generally tolerated by Kim Jong-Il), and so anything they get will be a bonus. The team have been together for longer than any other in South Africa (domestic-based players, which is most of them, have been given the last few months off league duty to prepare as a national squad) and have a great spirit about them. Recent friendly results have been encouraging (including a 2-2 draw against fellow qualifiers, and disciples of defensive play, Greece) and, should Kim Jong-Il allow it, many players will harbour aspirations of a move to Europe (North Korean- Russian diplomatic relations are said to be good). They may well struggle to avoid being tonked by Brazil in their opening game but, as long as they can bounce back from that, an off-colour Portugal and a Drogba-less Ivory Coast could be in for a nasty shock. You have not seen the last of North Korea
The bets for Group G:
Brazil to win 9 group stage points: best price 13/5 with Bodog
North Korea to qualify for round 2: best price 16/1 with bwin
Brazil
Dunga's outfit topped the South American qualification section, and won last summer's Confederations Cup in South Africa. Their array of attacking talent is as impressive as ever- Sevilla frontman Luis Fabiano will lead the line, with midfield support likely to come from Benfica's industrious wideman Ramires on the right, Robinho on the left and Kaka in the middle in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with backup being provided in the form of Elano, Julio Baptista and Nilmar- Lyon forward Michel Bastos, who has been deputising at left-back, could also be pushed back into his natural position. But this Brazil team lacks the flair, the joie de vivre, the kamikaze attacking instincts of previous Brazilian sides. Dunga, very much a destroyer himself, will send his side out with 2 defensive midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo- both players' remit does not extend into the opposing half, and neither has the range of passing to be able to open the game up. Expect Maicon to get the nod at right-back over Dani Alves to provide an extra outlet on the right, but no-one has made the left-back position their own. Expect them to be solid in defence nonetheless- Inter's Julio Cesar has established himself as 1st choice, and, unusually for Brazilian keepers, he's actually good, although he's a slight inury doubt for the start of the tournament. Should he miss out, Spurs' Heurelho Gomes has proved himself to be an able deputy. They should progress comfortably enough from this group (the quality of the opposition they face is not of a sufficient standard to turn them over), however they could struggle to break down a side who can contain their front 4. They also face a probable 2nd round match against a Chile side who could simply outscore them, or even worse Spain.
Portugal
It's unfair to describe this lot as Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. After all, they have a top-class goalkeeper in Eduardo of Sporting Braga, the defence features Chelsea pair Paulo Ferreira and Ricardo Carvalho, Porto's midfield anchorman Raul Meireles.....you know what, this is just Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. Coach Carlos Queiroz struggled to get the best out of Ronaldo during qualifying, with CR9 scoring a total of 0 times as Portugal limped through qualifying, needing a play-off victory over Bosnia. There are doubts over the fitness over Real Madrid central defender Pepe (who has been bewilderingly deployed in midfield), and, Ronaldo besides, there is a dearth of top-class players. Queiroz's attacking options were further limited this week with Nani being ruled out of the tournament after injuring himself performing an acrobatic overhead kick in training (no, really)- add to this concerns over the fading influence of Deco (against Brazil, Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo will surely have him for breakfast) and, Ronaldo apart, a lacklustre front line (apart from THAT howitzer of a free-kick for Porto against Inter a few years back, Hugo Almeida has done little of note), and an earlyish exit beckons. It's hard to see them getting beyond the last 16
Ivory Coast
The Sven Goran Eriksson World Tour makes its latest stop-off with Ivory Coast for this summer, before a probable move to a biggish European club. His squad arrive in South Africa after a poor showing in the African Nations Cup earlier this year, having been knocked out in the quarter-finals by a so-so Algeria side. Eriksson has had little time to stamp his authority on a side that possesses real strength and quality in some positions, but is desperately lacking in others, so much so that Hibs centre-back Souleymane Bamba is a likely starter alongside Kolo Toure. Behind a positionally clueless, foul-o-matic clown and Souleymane Bamba is Boubacar Barry, who has looked out of his depth at this level. The midfield is strong defensively and physically, with Didier Zokora and Yaya Toure among the best in La Liga, however there is a real lack of creativity- while Zokora and Toure are both excellent at winning the ball and are competent ball-carriers, neither of them have an extensive passing range. In attack, much (if not all) depends on the fitness of Didier Drogba- while the likes of Kader Keita, Salomon Kalou, Aruna Dindane and Gervinho can all play just off a frontman (or as wide attackers in a 4-3-3), none of them can lead the line with the physicality and hold-up ability of Drogba. With Drogba likely to miss what looks like being the crucial opening game against Portugal, the Ivorians may suffer a similar fate as they did in 2006, where a strong, well-fancied team were drawn in a "Group of Death" with Holland and Argentina, and were edged out.
North Korea
Underdogs? Yes. Underestimated? For sure. North Korea have been written off as mere cannon fodder, set for a gubbing in all 3 games. They have already gone down in World Cup folklore for their fantastically audacious attempt to increase their attacking options at the World Cup by registering striker Kim Myong-Won as their 3rd goalkeeper. They came through almost 2 years of qualifying matches to get to the tournament, conceding just 5 goals in the process. Their draw is undeniably tough, although facing such strong sides may actually help them: during qualifying, even against lesser lights such as Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia, coach Kim Jong-Hun set his side out with 5 across the back, looking to utilise striker Jong Tae-Se's pace and power on the counterattack. Against sides with the attacking prowess of Brazil and Portugal, Shifty's Coaching Manual states that the best way to neutralise attack-minded sides is to station 9 or 10 men deep, behind the ball. There will be no expectations or criticisms of the side from home (dissent isn't generally tolerated by Kim Jong-Il), and so anything they get will be a bonus. The team have been together for longer than any other in South Africa (domestic-based players, which is most of them, have been given the last few months off league duty to prepare as a national squad) and have a great spirit about them. Recent friendly results have been encouraging (including a 2-2 draw against fellow qualifiers, and disciples of defensive play, Greece) and, should Kim Jong-Il allow it, many players will harbour aspirations of a move to Europe (North Korean- Russian diplomatic relations are said to be good). They may well struggle to avoid being tonked by Brazil in their opening game but, as long as they can bounce back from that, an off-colour Portugal and a Drogba-less Ivory Coast could be in for a nasty shock. You have not seen the last of North Korea
The bets for Group G:
Brazil to win 9 group stage points: best price 13/5 with Bodog
North Korea to qualify for round 2: best price 16/1 with bwin
Tuesday, 8 June 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group F
Reigning champions Italy are favourites to progress, with the other 2nd round place likely to be a straight fight between Paraguay and Slovakia, with New Zealand coach Ricki Herbert freely admitting his side are happy just to be in South Africa
Italy
After stepping down for Euro 2008, World Cup-winning coach Marcello Lippi has stuck faith with much of the side that triumphed in Germany in 2006- as many as 9 of the team that won the World Cup are likely starters this time round, which has its pluses and minuses: one of the main strengths of that side was their mental strength and resilience; Lippi created a siege mentality within the squad in the wake of the Calciopoli scandal. However, even back then some of the side seemed past their best, and their likely starting line-up contains 7 players over 30. There are concerns about a lack of mobility in a central midfield likely to contain 2 of those 30-somethings, namely Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso, around whom doubts surround; Pirlo has been struggling with a calf injury, while Gattuso is no longer a 1st-choice at AC Milan, and hasn't had much match practice this season. At the back, while Gigi Buffon is one of the very best keepers in the world, there are doubts about the rest of the defence. Fabio Cannavaro has had a woeful season for Juventus (who have now released him. After the World Cup, he's off to the Middle East for some nice petrodollars) and AC Milan full-back is another of the over 30s and looks it. Lippi has at least replaced Marco Materazzi, although his replacement Giorgio Chiellini hasn't fully convinced- it will be interesting to see if Lippi puts in one or both of promising younger options Leonardo Bonucci and Domenico Criscito. Back in 2006, Lippi recognised his lack of a truly top-class centre-forward, and thus decided to take an arsenal of 6 attackers, all with different qualities, a decision that paid dividends. He has adopted a similar approach this time. The forward line features the goalscoring instincts of Alberto Gilardino and Gianpaolo Pazzini, the workrate and industry of Marco Borriello, Serie A's top scorer Antonio Di Natale, the physical presence of Vincenzo Iaquinta and the unpredictablility of Fabio Quagrialella. Providing Lippi's team can provide service to whichever 2 or 3 start in attack, they should progress comfortably, although they may struggle to make an impression beyond that
Paraguay
Argentinian coach Gerardo Martino's side qualified impressively for their 4th consecutive World Cup. They boast an impressive array of attacking talent, even without striker Salvdor Cabanas, who was shot in the head (no, really) in January; Benfica's Oscar Cardozo is set to be partnered by 1 or 2 from Man City benchwarmer Roque Santa Cruz, Dortmund striker Nelson Valdez or Pachuca's Edgar Benitez. And then there's the man this writer is tipping to make a big impact this summer, Valdez's strike partner at Dortmund, Lucas Barrios. Argentinian-born Barrios only received his Paraguayan citizenship earlier this year, but has already found the new for Martino's side in warm-up games, after a fantastic first season in Germany. He too is in contention to start with Cardozo. The problems for Paraguay, however, lie in midfield and defence. If Martino wants to go with 3 of his strikers upfront, then he'll have to swith to 4-3-3, a formation that Paraguay struggled with during qualifying- Martino may yet go 4-4-2 and use Barrios as an impact sub. The defence, which features Sunderland centre-back Paulo Da Silva, is solid enough alongisde the experienced Julio Cesar Caceres, however behind them 5ft 10 keeper Justo Villar is suspect at crosses. They do, though, have sufficient firepower to get them into round 2
Slovakia
This is their first appearance at a World Cup as an independent nation. They took great pride in defeating the Czech Republic in qualifying, and sealed top spot in Group 3 with a 1-0 win away to Poland. They have some highly-rated individuals- Martin Skrtel and Vladimir Weiss Jr (Vladimir Weiss Sr is the coach, and represented Czechosolvakia at Italia 90) both have Premier League experience, while talented Napoli playmaker Marek Hamsik captains the side at the tender age of 22. The squad is a young one- their provisional 30-man squad contained only 5 players into their 30s- with much of the focus being on Hamsik. There is no doubting Hamsik's ability, and he may well find himself moving on to an even bigger stage after the World Cup, but can he lead his side to round 2, particularly given doubts over Skrtel's fitness? They may just fall short
New Zealand
With the recent seismic shift in the Earth's surface that resulted in Australia becoming part of Asia, the Oceania qualifying section suddenly became New Zealand's to lose. They managed to see off the collective might of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Vanderreal and Bahrain to make it to their first World Cup since 1982. I may have made one of those teams up. Expect Ricki Herbert's side to go with 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, with hard-as-nails Blackburn centre-back Ryan Nelsen captaining the side. While they lack the ability to seriously challenge for a place in round 2, they will look to threaten from set pieces, while they are industrious and hard-working. It's difficult to see them managing even 1 point from their 3 games against superior side, but they won't embarass themselves
The bets for Group F:
Italy to win Group F: best price 8/15 with Blue Square
Paraguay top goalscorer Oscar Cardozo: best price 4/1 with bet365
Slovakia to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 with Blue Square
New Zealand to score over 1.5 goals: best price 4/5 with bwin
Italy
After stepping down for Euro 2008, World Cup-winning coach Marcello Lippi has stuck faith with much of the side that triumphed in Germany in 2006- as many as 9 of the team that won the World Cup are likely starters this time round, which has its pluses and minuses: one of the main strengths of that side was their mental strength and resilience; Lippi created a siege mentality within the squad in the wake of the Calciopoli scandal. However, even back then some of the side seemed past their best, and their likely starting line-up contains 7 players over 30. There are concerns about a lack of mobility in a central midfield likely to contain 2 of those 30-somethings, namely Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso, around whom doubts surround; Pirlo has been struggling with a calf injury, while Gattuso is no longer a 1st-choice at AC Milan, and hasn't had much match practice this season. At the back, while Gigi Buffon is one of the very best keepers in the world, there are doubts about the rest of the defence. Fabio Cannavaro has had a woeful season for Juventus (who have now released him. After the World Cup, he's off to the Middle East for some nice petrodollars) and AC Milan full-back is another of the over 30s and looks it. Lippi has at least replaced Marco Materazzi, although his replacement Giorgio Chiellini hasn't fully convinced- it will be interesting to see if Lippi puts in one or both of promising younger options Leonardo Bonucci and Domenico Criscito. Back in 2006, Lippi recognised his lack of a truly top-class centre-forward, and thus decided to take an arsenal of 6 attackers, all with different qualities, a decision that paid dividends. He has adopted a similar approach this time. The forward line features the goalscoring instincts of Alberto Gilardino and Gianpaolo Pazzini, the workrate and industry of Marco Borriello, Serie A's top scorer Antonio Di Natale, the physical presence of Vincenzo Iaquinta and the unpredictablility of Fabio Quagrialella. Providing Lippi's team can provide service to whichever 2 or 3 start in attack, they should progress comfortably, although they may struggle to make an impression beyond that
Paraguay
Argentinian coach Gerardo Martino's side qualified impressively for their 4th consecutive World Cup. They boast an impressive array of attacking talent, even without striker Salvdor Cabanas, who was shot in the head (no, really) in January; Benfica's Oscar Cardozo is set to be partnered by 1 or 2 from Man City benchwarmer Roque Santa Cruz, Dortmund striker Nelson Valdez or Pachuca's Edgar Benitez. And then there's the man this writer is tipping to make a big impact this summer, Valdez's strike partner at Dortmund, Lucas Barrios. Argentinian-born Barrios only received his Paraguayan citizenship earlier this year, but has already found the new for Martino's side in warm-up games, after a fantastic first season in Germany. He too is in contention to start with Cardozo. The problems for Paraguay, however, lie in midfield and defence. If Martino wants to go with 3 of his strikers upfront, then he'll have to swith to 4-3-3, a formation that Paraguay struggled with during qualifying- Martino may yet go 4-4-2 and use Barrios as an impact sub. The defence, which features Sunderland centre-back Paulo Da Silva, is solid enough alongisde the experienced Julio Cesar Caceres, however behind them 5ft 10 keeper Justo Villar is suspect at crosses. They do, though, have sufficient firepower to get them into round 2
Slovakia
This is their first appearance at a World Cup as an independent nation. They took great pride in defeating the Czech Republic in qualifying, and sealed top spot in Group 3 with a 1-0 win away to Poland. They have some highly-rated individuals- Martin Skrtel and Vladimir Weiss Jr (Vladimir Weiss Sr is the coach, and represented Czechosolvakia at Italia 90) both have Premier League experience, while talented Napoli playmaker Marek Hamsik captains the side at the tender age of 22. The squad is a young one- their provisional 30-man squad contained only 5 players into their 30s- with much of the focus being on Hamsik. There is no doubting Hamsik's ability, and he may well find himself moving on to an even bigger stage after the World Cup, but can he lead his side to round 2, particularly given doubts over Skrtel's fitness? They may just fall short
New Zealand
With the recent seismic shift in the Earth's surface that resulted in Australia becoming part of Asia, the Oceania qualifying section suddenly became New Zealand's to lose. They managed to see off the collective might of New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Vanderreal and Bahrain to make it to their first World Cup since 1982. I may have made one of those teams up. Expect Ricki Herbert's side to go with 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, with hard-as-nails Blackburn centre-back Ryan Nelsen captaining the side. While they lack the ability to seriously challenge for a place in round 2, they will look to threaten from set pieces, while they are industrious and hard-working. It's difficult to see them managing even 1 point from their 3 games against superior side, but they won't embarass themselves
The bets for Group F:
Italy to win Group F: best price 8/15 with Blue Square
Paraguay top goalscorer Oscar Cardozo: best price 4/1 with bet365
Slovakia to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 with Blue Square
New Zealand to score over 1.5 goals: best price 4/5 with bwin
Sunday, 6 June 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preivew: Group E
Despite uncertainty surrounding an injury to Arjen Robben, Holland are much-fancied to do well, and should progress from this group. They are unlikely to be challenged by any of ther other 3 teams in the group; a Cameroon side who seem over-reliant on Samuel Eto'o, Morten Olsen's Denmark and a Japan side looking to improve on a disappointing 2006 World Cup.
Holland
As they do at most tournaments, Holland go into this World Cup as one of the favourites, with an execptionally talented squad at their disposal. However, in previous tournaments, in-fighting and defensive liabilities (not so much liabilities as deciding not to bother with it) have cost them the chance to add to their 1 tournament triumph from Euro 88. Coach Bert van Marwijk has sought to address both of those failings- they won all 8 of their qualifying matches, conceding just 2 goals in the process- the players also talk of a much better team spirit within the camp. They have looked impressive in their build-up to the tournament, putting 4 past Ghana and 6 past Hungary, indeed the only negative from the Hungary match was an injury to Robben. Should Robben make it, then he is expected to line up on the left wing in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Wesley Sneijder and Dirk Kuyt also operating behind Robin van Persie. If not, then van Marwijk has a number of options- he could replace Robben on the left wing with Rafael van der Vaart, Eljero Elia, Ibrahim Afellay or Ryan Babel, or move van Persie to left-wing and bring in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar at centre-forward. Behind them, Mark van Bommel will kick most things that come his way, with Nigel de Jong alongside him, although van der Vaart could come into that position if van Marwijk is looking for extra creativity. In defence, Feyenoord's Giovanni van Bronckhorst is still an international-class left-back at the age of 35 (incidentally, he shares his birthday (albeit 10 years apart) with the man he could possibly be marking in the quarter-finals, Cristiano Ronaldo), while at right-back Ajax youngster Gregory van der Wiel has come in, allowing van Marwijk to shift Johnny Heitinga into central defence alongside Hamburg's Joris Mathijsen, while Maarten Stekelenburg has taken over from Edwin van der Sar in goals. All things considered, they have all they great attacking talent of previous great Dutch sides, with an improved defence and team spirit. They are very much a force to be reckoned with in South Africa
Cameroon
Paul Le Guen (remember him, Rangers fans?) took charge of a struggling Cameroon side last summer and turned the team's fortunes around to get them to South Africa, before a disappointing showing in the African Nations Cup in which they became over-reliant on Samuel Eto'o before being knocked out by Egypt in the quarter-finals. There's no doubting the qualities of Eto'o (to abbreviate that to "his qualities" would have resulted in apostrophe overload, however it's difficult to see where the service to him is going to come from- aside from Betis midfielder Achille Emana, there's no real creativity in the side. Defensively they are sound- Carlos Kameni is one of Africa's best keepers, in defence Monaco's Nicolas N'Koulou is a real talent capable of playing anywhere along the back 4, and Arsenal's Alex Song offers extra protection in defensive midfield, but, without anyone in attack to help out Eto'o, they'll do well to make it out of the group
Denmark
The Danes qualified impressively ahead of Portugal and Sweden, with a strong blend of youth and experience- talented youngsters such as Simon Kjaer in central defence and Nicklas Bendtner upfront have established themselves as key players in a side otherwise containing players the wrong side of 30, which could be both an asset and a liability. In goals, Thomas Sorensen has carried his club form with Stoke onto the international stage, while Christian Poulsen will anchor the midfield. However, on the flanks Olsen looks set to start with 2 from Jesper Gronkjaer, Martin Jorgensen and Dennis Rommedahl, all of whom are into their 30s, and have lost the best of their pace. Given that Olsen's sides have traditionally favoured attacking from the wings, and that the only natural playmaker in the squad, 18-year-old Christian Eriksen, is unlikely to be put in from the start, they may struggle to create chances for Bendtner and Soren Larsen in attack. They are unlikely to threaten an on-form Holland side, but may just have the edge over Cameroon and Japan to take them into round 2
Japan
This will be only Japan's 4th appearance at the World Cup- their 2006 showing was a real disappointment as they crashed out in the group stage, failing to push on from their 2002 showing on home soil, where they reached round 2. Coach Takeshi Okada (who has set his team a target of reaching the semi-finals) retook the reins of the national team from Ivica Osim in 2007, and has built a technically sound side, who keep the ball well- midfielders Keisuke Honda of CSKA Moscow and Makoto Hasebe of Wolfsburg add Champions League experience, and, as England found out in their recent warm-up match, centre-backs Yuji Nakazawa and naturalised Brazilian Marcus Tulio Tanaka are both a threat from set-pieces. They do, however, lack an out-and-out goalscorer to strike fear into the hearts of the Dutch, Cameroonian and Danish defences, a problem they also had in 2006. If they can find goals from elsewhere in the team, however, then they'll be in contention with Cameroon and Denmark to sneak into round 2
The bets for Group E:
Holland to score 10 or more goals: best price 17/10 with totesport
Cameroon top scorer Samuel Eto'o: best price 7/4 with Paddy Power
Denmark to win 4 group points: best price 3/1 with bet365
Japan to reach the semi-finals: best price 66/1 with bwin
Holland
As they do at most tournaments, Holland go into this World Cup as one of the favourites, with an execptionally talented squad at their disposal. However, in previous tournaments, in-fighting and defensive liabilities (not so much liabilities as deciding not to bother with it) have cost them the chance to add to their 1 tournament triumph from Euro 88. Coach Bert van Marwijk has sought to address both of those failings- they won all 8 of their qualifying matches, conceding just 2 goals in the process- the players also talk of a much better team spirit within the camp. They have looked impressive in their build-up to the tournament, putting 4 past Ghana and 6 past Hungary, indeed the only negative from the Hungary match was an injury to Robben. Should Robben make it, then he is expected to line up on the left wing in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Wesley Sneijder and Dirk Kuyt also operating behind Robin van Persie. If not, then van Marwijk has a number of options- he could replace Robben on the left wing with Rafael van der Vaart, Eljero Elia, Ibrahim Afellay or Ryan Babel, or move van Persie to left-wing and bring in Klaas-Jan Huntelaar at centre-forward. Behind them, Mark van Bommel will kick most things that come his way, with Nigel de Jong alongside him, although van der Vaart could come into that position if van Marwijk is looking for extra creativity. In defence, Feyenoord's Giovanni van Bronckhorst is still an international-class left-back at the age of 35 (incidentally, he shares his birthday (albeit 10 years apart) with the man he could possibly be marking in the quarter-finals, Cristiano Ronaldo), while at right-back Ajax youngster Gregory van der Wiel has come in, allowing van Marwijk to shift Johnny Heitinga into central defence alongside Hamburg's Joris Mathijsen, while Maarten Stekelenburg has taken over from Edwin van der Sar in goals. All things considered, they have all they great attacking talent of previous great Dutch sides, with an improved defence and team spirit. They are very much a force to be reckoned with in South Africa
Cameroon
Paul Le Guen (remember him, Rangers fans?) took charge of a struggling Cameroon side last summer and turned the team's fortunes around to get them to South Africa, before a disappointing showing in the African Nations Cup in which they became over-reliant on Samuel Eto'o before being knocked out by Egypt in the quarter-finals. There's no doubting the qualities of Eto'o (to abbreviate that to "his qualities" would have resulted in apostrophe overload, however it's difficult to see where the service to him is going to come from- aside from Betis midfielder Achille Emana, there's no real creativity in the side. Defensively they are sound- Carlos Kameni is one of Africa's best keepers, in defence Monaco's Nicolas N'Koulou is a real talent capable of playing anywhere along the back 4, and Arsenal's Alex Song offers extra protection in defensive midfield, but, without anyone in attack to help out Eto'o, they'll do well to make it out of the group
Denmark
The Danes qualified impressively ahead of Portugal and Sweden, with a strong blend of youth and experience- talented youngsters such as Simon Kjaer in central defence and Nicklas Bendtner upfront have established themselves as key players in a side otherwise containing players the wrong side of 30, which could be both an asset and a liability. In goals, Thomas Sorensen has carried his club form with Stoke onto the international stage, while Christian Poulsen will anchor the midfield. However, on the flanks Olsen looks set to start with 2 from Jesper Gronkjaer, Martin Jorgensen and Dennis Rommedahl, all of whom are into their 30s, and have lost the best of their pace. Given that Olsen's sides have traditionally favoured attacking from the wings, and that the only natural playmaker in the squad, 18-year-old Christian Eriksen, is unlikely to be put in from the start, they may struggle to create chances for Bendtner and Soren Larsen in attack. They are unlikely to threaten an on-form Holland side, but may just have the edge over Cameroon and Japan to take them into round 2
Japan
This will be only Japan's 4th appearance at the World Cup- their 2006 showing was a real disappointment as they crashed out in the group stage, failing to push on from their 2002 showing on home soil, where they reached round 2. Coach Takeshi Okada (who has set his team a target of reaching the semi-finals) retook the reins of the national team from Ivica Osim in 2007, and has built a technically sound side, who keep the ball well- midfielders Keisuke Honda of CSKA Moscow and Makoto Hasebe of Wolfsburg add Champions League experience, and, as England found out in their recent warm-up match, centre-backs Yuji Nakazawa and naturalised Brazilian Marcus Tulio Tanaka are both a threat from set-pieces. They do, however, lack an out-and-out goalscorer to strike fear into the hearts of the Dutch, Cameroonian and Danish defences, a problem they also had in 2006. If they can find goals from elsewhere in the team, however, then they'll be in contention with Cameroon and Denmark to sneak into round 2
The bets for Group E:
Holland to score 10 or more goals: best price 17/10 with totesport
Cameroon top scorer Samuel Eto'o: best price 7/4 with Paddy Power
Denmark to win 4 group points: best price 3/1 with bet365
Japan to reach the semi-finals: best price 66/1 with bwin
Saturday, 5 June 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group H
Apologies, readers, for not doing the groups in order: I'm skipping past groups E, F and G until we hear more definite news about the injuries to Arjen Robben, Andrea Pirlo and Didier Drogba respectively. For now, let's plod on with Group H. Spain are overwhelming favourites to top the group ahead of an exciting, adventurous young Chile side and Central American outsiders Honduras. Oh, and Switzerland have qualified again.
Spain
They go into every tournament with a talented squad and many people saying this is their year before failing around about the quarter-finals, but this time could well be different. Firstly, they have a frankly preposterous record in their last 47 games of 44-2-1, which is most certainly championship-winning form. Secondly, the side is largely settled, with most of the starting 11 the same as Euro 2008, but with enough newcomers such as Pedro and Jesus Navas emerging in (and on) the wings to keep the first XI on their toes. But perhaps most importantly of all is that this side, and these players, are winners. Spain have used Euro 2008 as a springboard and come into this tournament full of confidence. Significantly, many of the side's players have also tasted major success with their clubs. They should sail through this group and are, along with Brazil, the pre-tournament favourites to win the competition, a billing they can live up to
Chile
Expect Marcelo Bielsa's young, adventurous side to be one of the more entertaining sides to watch during the tournament. Bielsa is likely to send his team out in a 3-3-1-3 formation, with Sporting CP playmaker Matias Fernandez playing just behind a 3-man frontline that is likely to include ex-Liverpool winger Mark Gonzalez on the left, and thereby proving tht he and Fabio Aurelio are, in actual fact, 2 different people. Livewire Udinese frontman Alexis Sanchez is set to feature on the right, with Zaragoza centre-forward Humberto Suazo through the middle. Many of Bielsa's current squad featured in the 2007 Under 20 World Cup, where Chile finished 3rd. In that tournament, it was the 3-3-1-3 formation that brought them success, and as long as their talented youngsters perform again, Chile should progress from this group
Honduras
The Central American minnows are making their 1st appearance at the World Cup since 1982, and have only just made it now. They struggled to make it to 3rd place, and even that required the USA nicking a late draw against Costa Rica. They do have a few individuals playing in the Premier League, namely Wigan pair Maynor Figueroa and Hendry Thomas, alongwith Thomas' central midfield partner Wilson Palacios of Tottenham, but apart from that the team looks decidedly mediocre. They may not even be that attractive to watch, with coach Reinaldo Rueda likely to favour a cautiosu approach- it's difficult to see them finiishing anywhere other than bottom of this group
Switzerland
Ottmar Hitzfeld's side have qualified again, but were far from convincing during their qualifying campaign: indeed, their qualifying campaign featured the standout result of qualifying: Switzerland 1 Luxembourg 2. The side is solid if unspectacular, although a crop of talented youngsters are beginning to emerge- they won the Under-17 World Championship last year, though this tournament will be too soon for the players involved to make it into Hitzfeld's squad. There are question marks over centre-back Philippe Senderos' lack of match practice this season, and they lack a top-class goalscorer- it's therefore difficult to see them making round 2
The bets for Group H
Spain to win 9 points: best price 6/4 general
Chile to score over 4.5 group stage goals: best price 13/10 with bwin
Honduras group finishing position 4th: best price 4/7 with Sportingbet
Switzerland to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 general
Spain
They go into every tournament with a talented squad and many people saying this is their year before failing around about the quarter-finals, but this time could well be different. Firstly, they have a frankly preposterous record in their last 47 games of 44-2-1, which is most certainly championship-winning form. Secondly, the side is largely settled, with most of the starting 11 the same as Euro 2008, but with enough newcomers such as Pedro and Jesus Navas emerging in (and on) the wings to keep the first XI on their toes. But perhaps most importantly of all is that this side, and these players, are winners. Spain have used Euro 2008 as a springboard and come into this tournament full of confidence. Significantly, many of the side's players have also tasted major success with their clubs. They should sail through this group and are, along with Brazil, the pre-tournament favourites to win the competition, a billing they can live up to
Chile
Expect Marcelo Bielsa's young, adventurous side to be one of the more entertaining sides to watch during the tournament. Bielsa is likely to send his team out in a 3-3-1-3 formation, with Sporting CP playmaker Matias Fernandez playing just behind a 3-man frontline that is likely to include ex-Liverpool winger Mark Gonzalez on the left, and thereby proving tht he and Fabio Aurelio are, in actual fact, 2 different people. Livewire Udinese frontman Alexis Sanchez is set to feature on the right, with Zaragoza centre-forward Humberto Suazo through the middle. Many of Bielsa's current squad featured in the 2007 Under 20 World Cup, where Chile finished 3rd. In that tournament, it was the 3-3-1-3 formation that brought them success, and as long as their talented youngsters perform again, Chile should progress from this group
Honduras
The Central American minnows are making their 1st appearance at the World Cup since 1982, and have only just made it now. They struggled to make it to 3rd place, and even that required the USA nicking a late draw against Costa Rica. They do have a few individuals playing in the Premier League, namely Wigan pair Maynor Figueroa and Hendry Thomas, alongwith Thomas' central midfield partner Wilson Palacios of Tottenham, but apart from that the team looks decidedly mediocre. They may not even be that attractive to watch, with coach Reinaldo Rueda likely to favour a cautiosu approach- it's difficult to see them finiishing anywhere other than bottom of this group
Switzerland
Ottmar Hitzfeld's side have qualified again, but were far from convincing during their qualifying campaign: indeed, their qualifying campaign featured the standout result of qualifying: Switzerland 1 Luxembourg 2. The side is solid if unspectacular, although a crop of talented youngsters are beginning to emerge- they won the Under-17 World Championship last year, though this tournament will be too soon for the players involved to make it into Hitzfeld's squad. There are question marks over centre-back Philippe Senderos' lack of match practice this season, and they lack a top-class goalscorer- it's therefore difficult to see them making round 2
The bets for Group H
Spain to win 9 points: best price 6/4 general
Chile to score over 4.5 group stage goals: best price 13/10 with bwin
Honduras group finishing position 4th: best price 4/7 with Sportingbet
Switzerland to win 3 group points: best price 10/3 general
Sunday, 30 May 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group D
Germany will be expected to progress from this group ahead of 3 closely-matched sides: Serbia will be taking part in their 1st World Cup on their own, while Ghana and Australia will both be looking to equal their achievements in 2006 of making the 2nd round
Germany
Regardless of form, fitness of key players, etc, they always seem to be there or there abouts, and Jogi Loew's side look like contenders again. While the loss of captain Michael Ballack is an obvious blow, Bastian Schweinsteiger has reinvented himself this season from temperamental, flaky wideman into central midfield powerhouse, and will be expected to thrive in central midfield, with Stuttgart midfielder Sami Khedira his most likely partner, with Werder Bremen stars Mesut Ozil and Marko Marin offering creativity and thrust. Upfront, despite indifferent club form, Mario Gomez, Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski can all be relied upon for the Nationalmannschaft, with relative newcomers Stefan Kiessling, Cacau and Thomas Muller also likely to travel as backup. In defence, Loew has confirmed that Schalke keeper Manuel Neuer will be his 1st choice, ahead of Tim Wiese and Hans-Jorg Butt. Infront of Neuer is a defence which conceded just 5 goals during qualifying- in Ballack's absence, Philipp Lahm has taken the captain's armband, and he's likely to start at left-back, with Arne Friedrich or Andreas Beck at right back. In central defence, Per Mertesacker has matured into one of Europe's best centre-backs, with his partner likely to be Heiko Westermann. They do appear to be hitting some kind of form right now, and have plenty of options in attack- they should do well in South Africa, and can never be ruled out as potential winners
Serbia
Raddy Antic's side qualified impressively, finishing ahead of France, but Antic will have a number of concerns about his side going into the World Cup:
Germany
Regardless of form, fitness of key players, etc, they always seem to be there or there abouts, and Jogi Loew's side look like contenders again. While the loss of captain Michael Ballack is an obvious blow, Bastian Schweinsteiger has reinvented himself this season from temperamental, flaky wideman into central midfield powerhouse, and will be expected to thrive in central midfield, with Stuttgart midfielder Sami Khedira his most likely partner, with Werder Bremen stars Mesut Ozil and Marko Marin offering creativity and thrust. Upfront, despite indifferent club form, Mario Gomez, Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski can all be relied upon for the Nationalmannschaft, with relative newcomers Stefan Kiessling, Cacau and Thomas Muller also likely to travel as backup. In defence, Loew has confirmed that Schalke keeper Manuel Neuer will be his 1st choice, ahead of Tim Wiese and Hans-Jorg Butt. Infront of Neuer is a defence which conceded just 5 goals during qualifying- in Ballack's absence, Philipp Lahm has taken the captain's armband, and he's likely to start at left-back, with Arne Friedrich or Andreas Beck at right back. In central defence, Per Mertesacker has matured into one of Europe's best centre-backs, with his partner likely to be Heiko Westermann. They do appear to be hitting some kind of form right now, and have plenty of options in attack- they should do well in South Africa, and can never be ruled out as potential winners
Serbia
Raddy Antic's side qualified impressively, finishing ahead of France, but Antic will have a number of concerns about his side going into the World Cup:
- 1st choice goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic hasn't played much football this season. Out of favour at Sporting CP, he went on loan to Wigan in January, but only made a handful of appearances for Roberto Martinez's men, and didn't exctly convince in those
- Star striker Nikola Zigic is another player who has been short of match action this season, with David Villa keeping him out of the Valencia side (admittedly, he can't really have too many complaints abouth that)
- At 31, Dejan Stankovic is starting to get on a bit (this, incidentally, will be his 3rd World Cup for a 3rd different country). His pace has already faded to such an extent that he's been used by Inter in a much deeper role this season. It remains to be seen how he will cope with a World Cup playing possibly 7 more games after playing 43 games for Inter this season
- Their most recent warm-up match was a disaster, losing 1-0 to New Zealand. The travelling Serbian fans were so disgruntled with their side that The Great Leader Nemanja Vidic had to address them on the stadium PA system to calm them down. They obeyed
Given all these concerns, and throw in the fact that, Zigic apart, there's a lack of strength in depth in attack, and it's certainly possible that Serbia could fail to make it out of their group. However, given the weaknesses of the other 2 nations in the group, they should just make the 2nd round, and a probable meeting with England
Australia
Little has changed with Australia since their last-16 exit in 2006- coach Guus Hiddink has been replaced by his compatriot Pim Verbeek, and many of the players from 2006 are still in the squad- Mark Schwarzer will still be in goals, his defence will still most likely contain the likes of Patrick Kisnorbo, Lucas Neill, Scott Chipperfield and Craig Moore, while the midfield should still feature Brett Emerton, Vince Grella and Tim Cahill, with Harry Kewell operating on the left of a 3 man strikeforce. The crux of this is that most of those players are now the wrong side of 30- Verbeek's squad is short of strikers, too, and he risked alienating some of those players with his criticism of Grella and Cahill's tackling in their warm-up game against New Zealand. They look likely to miss out on repeating their 2006 exploits
Ghana
Like Australia, they made the last 16 in 2006, but like Australia, they look ill-equipped to progress. Losing Michael Essien is a massive blow, but the team looks suspect even with him there. In goals, there are doubts over Richard Kingson's fitness- should he miss out, there is no experienced back-up option for coach Milovan Rajevac. Defensively they look fairly sound, and while Essien will be absent, Sulley Muntari will add thrust and dynamism to the midfield. They do, however, struggle to score goals- in 5 matches during the African Nations Cup, they managed just 4 goals, and if they fail to improve on this, then they're going home
Bets for Group D:
Germany to win Group D: best price 10/11 with Blue Square. This is an insanely good price. Get on it people
Serbia Top Goalscorer Milos Krasic: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Australia to finish bottom of Group D: best price 11/8 with Blue Square
Ghana to score under 3.5 goals: best price 3/5 with bwin
Sunday, 23 May 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group C
This group looks fairly clear-cut: England, widely fancied as potential winners of the tournament, will be expected to progress along with an ever-improving USA side, ahead of a Slovenia team short on creativity and top-level experience, and an inconsistent Algeria side
England
Even by English standards, there is much hype about Fabio Capello's team, after they qualified with relative ease. Capello has brought discipline to the team, and has also managed to shoehorn Lampard and Gerrrd into the same team. Of his 30-man squad, it will be interesting to see who makes the final 23-man squad, to see if potential wildcards such as Adam Johnson, Darren Bent and Joe Cole, along with the injury-prone Ledley King, are retained. In the group, one of the bets I'll be recommending will be for them to finish on 7 points- this would require one of the following 3 possibilities to happen:
England
Even by English standards, there is much hype about Fabio Capello's team, after they qualified with relative ease. Capello has brought discipline to the team, and has also managed to shoehorn Lampard and Gerrrd into the same team. Of his 30-man squad, it will be interesting to see who makes the final 23-man squad, to see if potential wildcards such as Adam Johnson, Darren Bent and Joe Cole, along with the injury-prone Ledley King, are retained. In the group, one of the bets I'll be recommending will be for them to finish on 7 points- this would require one of the following 3 possibilities to happen:
- The USA stun a lacklustre England and claim a draw from their opening game
- Over-confident after beating USA, England take their foot off the gas and slip to a draw with Algeria
- Having already qualified after winning their first 2 games, Capello makes wholesale changes for the final game against Slovenia and a reserve side can only manage a draw
Of course, there is a chance that, should all 3 of the above happen, Capello's side could face an embarassing early exit, but that is extremely unlikely. More likely is a semi-final exit at the hands of Holland or Brazil
USA
Last year's run to the Confederations Cup final confirmed the USA's status as an emerging force in world football, with an incredibly hard-working and industrious side knocking out Spain along the way. The squad contains a number of players plying their trade at the highest level in Europe, among them established Premier League players Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Jonathan Spector- remember also Landon Donovan's successful loan spell at Everton earlier this season. However, their results since the Confederations Cup have been inconsistent, and after a strong showing in 2002, they then flopped at the 2006 World Cup. Still, they should get through the group, although that may be as far as they get, with their 2002 conquerors Germany potentially awaiting them in the 2nd round.
Algeria
The Desert Foxes have qualified for the first time since 1986, and coach Rabah Saadane, who led them to Mexico bck then, is in charge once again. They have some talented individuals, namely Wolfsburg's Karim Ziani and Portsmouth pair Hassan Yebda and Nadir Belhadj, but have displayed some staggering inconsistency in the last 12 months; their 1-0 playoff win over Egypt that earned them their place in South Africa last autumn was then followed by a 4-0 loss against the same nation in the African Nations earlier this year, a tournament in which they reached the semi-finals despite an early 3-0 loss to Malawi. In that match, Saadane experimented with a 3-5-2 formation, which has since been abandoned for 4-4-2, with veteran playmaker Rafik Saifi likely to play just off a lone frontman. However, it's hard to see them progressing from the group, given their inconsistency, and also due to the lack of a convincing goalkeeper
Slovenia
This nation of just 2 million people has qualified for only its 2nd World Cup, beating a much-fancied Russia side in the play-offs. Expect Matjaz Kek's side to line up in a fairly standard 4-4-2 formation, with Bochum forward Zlatko Dedic running the frontline playing off targetman Milivoje Novakovic of FC Koln. They will most likely be well-organised and able to keep hold of the ball, but lack a creative edge to help create chances for Dedic and Novakovic, and as such it's unlikely that they'll be providing too much trouble for the defences of the stronger teams
The bets for Group C:
England to win 7 points: best price 11/5 with Bodog
USA stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 13/8 with bet365
Algeria to finish bottom of Group C: best price 11/10 with expekt.com
Slovenia top goalscorer Zlatko Dedic: best price 10/3 with Skybet
Friday, 21 May 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group B
Much has been written about Argentina under Diego Maradona, but they still arrive in South Africa as one of the contenders for the trophy, despite being widely written off due to some of Maradona's selection decisions. Of the other 3 teams in the group, Nigeria would appear to be Argentina's closest challengers ahead of a dour Greece side and a South Korea side who look a shadow of the side who memorably made the semi-finals in 2002
Argentina
A chaotic qualifying campaign and a somewhat scattergun selection policy were the hallmarks of the beginning of Maradona's stint in charge, but in recent months there seems to be a more settled look to the side, even if some of the selection decisions Maradona has made for his finals squad are nothing short of baffling (the previously unheralded Ariel Garce and Juan Mercier, along with 36-year-old Martin Palermo in; 136-cap Javier Zanetti, Gabriel Milito, Esteban Cambiasso and Lisandro Lopez out). In goals, Mardona's decision to trust AZ Alkmaar rookie Sergio Romero in goals has been an inspired one- he'll be protected by, in Diego's own words, 4 centre-backs (this his reasoning behind leaving out Zanetti)- infront of them will be Javier Mascherano, so while it may not be pretty, expect Argentina not to concede many goals. Going forward, the last person you would expect to see in central midfield would most likely be ex-Manchester United flop/"F***ing superb player" Juan Sebastian Veron- so you'll never guess who Maradona's gone and picked next to Mascherano. Yep, Seba Veron- he hasn't got the legs these days, but can still pass a ball. Upfront, Argentina have a wealth of attacking options- Messi, Aguero (Maradona's son-in-law, by the way), Tevez, Milito, Palermo, Pastore and Lavezzi to name but 7- providing they can work together, Maradona could well become only the 2ndmn, after Franz Beckenbaur, to win the World Cup as player and manager- now that would make for an eventful press conference
Nigeria
The Super Eagles have qualified once again, and seem to have fostered a better team spirit and are better organised under Swedish coach Lars Lagerback. In Vincent Enyeama, they have one of Africa's best goalkeepers, and he has infront of him a strong defence that was the backbone of their progress to the semi-finals of the African Nations Cup earlier this year. Infront of them they have the likes of Dickson Etuhu and John Obi Mikel, who while offering tenacity, do lack creativity, a problem replicated throughout the team- Lagerback's concern won't be with the ability of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins, it will be who will create chances for them. However, as long as they can keep themselves together as a team, they should progress from the group
South Korea
Semi-finalists in 2002, but have been a shadow of that side since then, failing to get out of their group in 2006. Coach Huh Jung-Moo's side contain a handful of survivors from 2002, amongst them 37-year-old goalkeeper Lee Woon-Jae. Going forward, they do have some quality- another 2002 survivor, Park Ji-Sung is one of their "Fab Four" of attacking players, also including Celtic's Ki Sung Yong, Bolton's Lee Chung-Yong and Park Chu-Young of Monaco- and based on their qualifying campaign and subsequent friendlies, scoring goals won't be an issue. However, it is the defence where there are concerns- they haven't had a stable central defensive pairing, and they have shown a worrying fondness for conceding goals at set pieces. If Huh Jung-Moo cannot correct this, then they're going home early
Greece
Was the word in 2004, but has since been replaced by The Bird. Veteran German coach Otto Rehhagel is still in charge and the football is still pretty dreadful- not much has changed since their triumphant showing in 2004, and their less triumphant showing in 2008. Expect them to be robust, physical and a threat from set pieces (watch out South Korea), and don't be surprised if Rehhagel opts for a back 3 (or 5), although one can assume that, even if they manage to make it out of the group, the Greek FA won't exactly be liberal with their bonuses. Panathinaikos youngster Sotiris Ninis has been tipped as a star of the future, and if the defence behind him remains solid, he could create the chances for the likes of Fanis Gekas, Georgios Samaras and Angelos Charisteas (scorer of the winner in the EURO 2004 final) to fire the Greeks into the 2nd round
The bets for Group B:
Argentina to win Group B: best price 5/11 with expekt.com
Nigeria to win 4 points: best price 3/1 with Paddy Power
South Korea top goalscorer Park Chu-Young: best price 5/1 with Betfred
Greece stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 11/4 with sportingbet
Argentina
A chaotic qualifying campaign and a somewhat scattergun selection policy were the hallmarks of the beginning of Maradona's stint in charge, but in recent months there seems to be a more settled look to the side, even if some of the selection decisions Maradona has made for his finals squad are nothing short of baffling (the previously unheralded Ariel Garce and Juan Mercier, along with 36-year-old Martin Palermo in; 136-cap Javier Zanetti, Gabriel Milito, Esteban Cambiasso and Lisandro Lopez out). In goals, Mardona's decision to trust AZ Alkmaar rookie Sergio Romero in goals has been an inspired one- he'll be protected by, in Diego's own words, 4 centre-backs (this his reasoning behind leaving out Zanetti)- infront of them will be Javier Mascherano, so while it may not be pretty, expect Argentina not to concede many goals. Going forward, the last person you would expect to see in central midfield would most likely be ex-Manchester United flop/"F***ing superb player" Juan Sebastian Veron- so you'll never guess who Maradona's gone and picked next to Mascherano. Yep, Seba Veron- he hasn't got the legs these days, but can still pass a ball. Upfront, Argentina have a wealth of attacking options- Messi, Aguero (Maradona's son-in-law, by the way), Tevez, Milito, Palermo, Pastore and Lavezzi to name but 7- providing they can work together, Maradona could well become only the 2ndmn, after Franz Beckenbaur, to win the World Cup as player and manager- now that would make for an eventful press conference
Nigeria
The Super Eagles have qualified once again, and seem to have fostered a better team spirit and are better organised under Swedish coach Lars Lagerback. In Vincent Enyeama, they have one of Africa's best goalkeepers, and he has infront of him a strong defence that was the backbone of their progress to the semi-finals of the African Nations Cup earlier this year. Infront of them they have the likes of Dickson Etuhu and John Obi Mikel, who while offering tenacity, do lack creativity, a problem replicated throughout the team- Lagerback's concern won't be with the ability of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins, it will be who will create chances for them. However, as long as they can keep themselves together as a team, they should progress from the group
South Korea
Semi-finalists in 2002, but have been a shadow of that side since then, failing to get out of their group in 2006. Coach Huh Jung-Moo's side contain a handful of survivors from 2002, amongst them 37-year-old goalkeeper Lee Woon-Jae. Going forward, they do have some quality- another 2002 survivor, Park Ji-Sung is one of their "Fab Four" of attacking players, also including Celtic's Ki Sung Yong, Bolton's Lee Chung-Yong and Park Chu-Young of Monaco- and based on their qualifying campaign and subsequent friendlies, scoring goals won't be an issue. However, it is the defence where there are concerns- they haven't had a stable central defensive pairing, and they have shown a worrying fondness for conceding goals at set pieces. If Huh Jung-Moo cannot correct this, then they're going home early
Greece
Was the word in 2004, but has since been replaced by The Bird. Veteran German coach Otto Rehhagel is still in charge and the football is still pretty dreadful- not much has changed since their triumphant showing in 2004, and their less triumphant showing in 2008. Expect them to be robust, physical and a threat from set pieces (watch out South Korea), and don't be surprised if Rehhagel opts for a back 3 (or 5), although one can assume that, even if they manage to make it out of the group, the Greek FA won't exactly be liberal with their bonuses. Panathinaikos youngster Sotiris Ninis has been tipped as a star of the future, and if the defence behind him remains solid, he could create the chances for the likes of Fanis Gekas, Georgios Samaras and Angelos Charisteas (scorer of the winner in the EURO 2004 final) to fire the Greeks into the 2nd round
The bets for Group B:
Argentina to win Group B: best price 5/11 with expekt.com
Nigeria to win 4 points: best price 3/1 with Paddy Power
South Korea top goalscorer Park Chu-Young: best price 5/1 with Betfred
Greece stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 11/4 with sportingbet
Thursday, 20 May 2010
Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group A
Right, time for me to start looking forward to the World Cup, with kick-off in South Africa just 3 weeks away. Between now and then, I'll be going through each group individually with this blog's usual mix of statistical-based analysis and witty banter, with Graeme hopefully weighing in with his tuppence worth along the way
Group A
This looks like being a surprisingly open group, with a below-par France up against hosts South Africa, an ever-improving Mexico and a Uruguay side containing a number of individuals playing at the highest level in Europe
France
After a disastrous EURO 2008, the question everyone was asking was "Who will replace Raymond Domenech as coach?" The answer was, er, Raymond Domenech (although Laurent Blanc takes over after the tournament). France were unconvincing to say the least in qualifying, only making it through by their fingertips. Domenech has again made some baffling selection decisions (Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema didn't even make the final 30, while Andre-Pierre Gignac did) and there's still a great deal of uncertainty in some positions (William Gallas has yet to find a regular central defensive patner, while the identity of their main striker is anyone's guess). If they don't get going quickly, then another embarassing group-stage exit beckons
South Africa
World Cup host ntions have traditionally performed well in their home tournaments, but South Africa aren't being considered as potential winners by anyone outside the most optimistic branches of their own, vuvuzela-playing support. A look at their squad reveals a distinct lack of experience at the highest level (only 5 of their squad play in one of Europe's strongest leagues), and coaching changes, along with mixed friendly results, have not helped their cause. Still, they were impressive in last summer's Confederations Cup, reaching the semi-finals, and are arguably best-placed to sneak into the 2nd round if either France or Mexico slip up
Mexico
Javier Aguirre returned to the helm after Sven-Goran Eriksson's disastrous tenure as coach came to an end, and has led the team to a 5th consecutive World Cup- they went out in the 2nd round in each of the last 4 tournaments, so the target for Aguirre's men is simple: the quarter-finals are the target. With an increasing number of players plying their trade in Europe (one to watch: left-winger Andres Guardado) and plenty of options in attack (soon-to-be Manchester United centre-forward Javier Hernandez among them) supported by a strong defence (although doubts linger over Rafael Marquez's match fitness), Aguirre's side are well-equipped to advance from the group stage- finishing top will be of importance to Mexico so as to avoid a likely meeting with Argentina, their conquerors after extra-time in 2006 (y'all must surely remember THAT Maxi Rodriguez goal), in the 2nd round
Uruguay
The last time Uruguay got beyond the group stages of the World Cup (Italia 90), their manager was one Oscar Washington Tabarez. Back in 2006, Tabarez returned to the fold, and led Uruguay to South Africa, but only just- they needed to play-off victory over Costa Rica after finishing 5th in the South American qualifying group. In attack they do have some quality individuals, most notably Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro, while behind them expect the usual "physical" stuff from Uruguay. It's a style unlikely to make them many friends, and it's unlikely to see them get past the group stage
So that's the tems in group A, here's a few bets worth thinking about in Group A:
France to win 4 points: best price 4/1 with Bodog
Mexico stage of elimination- quarter-finals: best price 11/2 with bet365
Soth Africa top goalscorer Teko Modise: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Uruguay group goals scored lass than goals conceded: best price 20/19 with bwin
Group A
This looks like being a surprisingly open group, with a below-par France up against hosts South Africa, an ever-improving Mexico and a Uruguay side containing a number of individuals playing at the highest level in Europe
France
After a disastrous EURO 2008, the question everyone was asking was "Who will replace Raymond Domenech as coach?" The answer was, er, Raymond Domenech (although Laurent Blanc takes over after the tournament). France were unconvincing to say the least in qualifying, only making it through by their fingertips. Domenech has again made some baffling selection decisions (Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema didn't even make the final 30, while Andre-Pierre Gignac did) and there's still a great deal of uncertainty in some positions (William Gallas has yet to find a regular central defensive patner, while the identity of their main striker is anyone's guess). If they don't get going quickly, then another embarassing group-stage exit beckons
South Africa
World Cup host ntions have traditionally performed well in their home tournaments, but South Africa aren't being considered as potential winners by anyone outside the most optimistic branches of their own, vuvuzela-playing support. A look at their squad reveals a distinct lack of experience at the highest level (only 5 of their squad play in one of Europe's strongest leagues), and coaching changes, along with mixed friendly results, have not helped their cause. Still, they were impressive in last summer's Confederations Cup, reaching the semi-finals, and are arguably best-placed to sneak into the 2nd round if either France or Mexico slip up
Mexico
Javier Aguirre returned to the helm after Sven-Goran Eriksson's disastrous tenure as coach came to an end, and has led the team to a 5th consecutive World Cup- they went out in the 2nd round in each of the last 4 tournaments, so the target for Aguirre's men is simple: the quarter-finals are the target. With an increasing number of players plying their trade in Europe (one to watch: left-winger Andres Guardado) and plenty of options in attack (soon-to-be Manchester United centre-forward Javier Hernandez among them) supported by a strong defence (although doubts linger over Rafael Marquez's match fitness), Aguirre's side are well-equipped to advance from the group stage- finishing top will be of importance to Mexico so as to avoid a likely meeting with Argentina, their conquerors after extra-time in 2006 (y'all must surely remember THAT Maxi Rodriguez goal), in the 2nd round
Uruguay
The last time Uruguay got beyond the group stages of the World Cup (Italia 90), their manager was one Oscar Washington Tabarez. Back in 2006, Tabarez returned to the fold, and led Uruguay to South Africa, but only just- they needed to play-off victory over Costa Rica after finishing 5th in the South American qualifying group. In attack they do have some quality individuals, most notably Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro, while behind them expect the usual "physical" stuff from Uruguay. It's a style unlikely to make them many friends, and it's unlikely to see them get past the group stage
So that's the tems in group A, here's a few bets worth thinking about in Group A:
France to win 4 points: best price 4/1 with Bodog
Mexico stage of elimination- quarter-finals: best price 11/2 with bet365
Soth Africa top goalscorer Teko Modise: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Uruguay group goals scored lass than goals conceded: best price 20/19 with bwin
Tuesday, 16 February 2010
Shifty's Last Word World Cup Squad Competition
SPECIAL FEATURE!
In the run up to the 2010 World Cup, we will be running a number of special features on the blog, the first of which Shifty is pleased to announce today:
ENGLAND SQUAD SELECTOR
Inspired by an off-the-cuff comment from Graeme (of Graeme's Silly Bet fame), the idea is that everyone submits the 23 players they think will make up the England (we'll consider doing a few other nations, based on how well this goes) squad in South Africa, and there'll be a prize* for whoever gets closest to Fabio Capello's actual 23 man squad. To enter, just drop Shifty an email at vanderdalgarno@hotmail.co.uk this Friday (it's the fairest way to do it by having everyone submit their squad on the same day) with your selection
*There may not be a prize
In the run up to the 2010 World Cup, we will be running a number of special features on the blog, the first of which Shifty is pleased to announce today:
ENGLAND SQUAD SELECTOR
Inspired by an off-the-cuff comment from Graeme (of Graeme's Silly Bet fame), the idea is that everyone submits the 23 players they think will make up the England (we'll consider doing a few other nations, based on how well this goes) squad in South Africa, and there'll be a prize* for whoever gets closest to Fabio Capello's actual 23 man squad. To enter, just drop Shifty an email at vanderdalgarno@hotmail.co.uk this Friday (it's the fairest way to do it by having everyone submit their squad on the same day) with your selection
*There may not be a prize
Thursday, 19 November 2009
Midweek Betting Review
Here's how the recommended bets fared last night:
Greece to beat Ukraine @ 4/1- 1 unit returns 5
Fanis Gekas anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Russia to beat Slovenia- 1 unit returns 0
Slovenia v Russia under 3.5 goals @ 2/9- 1 unit returns 1.22
Ireland to beat France (in 90 minutes) @ 13/2 - 1 unit returns 7.5
France v Ireland 0-0 half-time- 1 unit returns 0
Bosnia v Portugal draw- 1 unit returns 0
Pepe anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Harris Medunjanin anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Total Outlay: 9 units
Total Return: 13.72 units
Return/ Outlay %: 152.44%
Greece to beat Ukraine @ 4/1- 1 unit returns 5
Fanis Gekas anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Russia to beat Slovenia- 1 unit returns 0
Slovenia v Russia under 3.5 goals @ 2/9- 1 unit returns 1.22
Ireland to beat France (in 90 minutes) @ 13/2 - 1 unit returns 7.5
France v Ireland 0-0 half-time- 1 unit returns 0
Bosnia v Portugal draw- 1 unit returns 0
Pepe anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Harris Medunjanin anytime scorer- 1 unit returns 0
Total Outlay: 9 units
Total Return: 13.72 units
Return/ Outlay %: 152.44%
Wednesday, 18 November 2009
France v Ireland, Wednesday 18th November
My Thoughts
There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.
The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.
The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.
There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.
The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.
The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.
Bosnia v Portugal, Wednesday 18th November
My Thoughts
Portugal go into this game with a narrow, 1-0 advantage from Saturday's 1st leg, courtesy of Bruno Alves' goal. For Bosnia, this will be by some margin their biggest ever game as an independent nation. The game has the potential to be open- previous play-off results tell us that 2nd legs tend to feature more goals that 1st legs- an average of 2.7 goals per game in 2nd legs, compared to 2.45 in 1st legs. Along with this, Bosnia's favoured 3-4-1-2 formation features two wing-backs in Senijad Ibricic (rumoured to be attracting interest from Celtic) and Sejad Salihovic whose strengths are going forward as opposed to backward- the flipside of this being that this gives space in advanced wide positions for the likes of Nani to exploit. Bosnia also must do without the suspended midfield pair of Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic, aloing with centre-back Emir Spahic, and the injured Zvjezdan Misimovic, who looks set to be replaced by debutant Harris Medunjanin. Portugal, aside from the injured CR7, travelled to Bosnia with a fully-fit and suspension-free squad.
The Verdict
As was the case with the 1st leg, this is a very tough one to call. The history books do not favour Ciro Blazevic's men: in the last 12 years, of the 14 teams who have lost the 1st legs of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify. Bizarrely, of the 3 ties where a team has lost the 1st leg and won the 2nd leg, Scotland have featured in 2 of them. Bosnia must also improve on a defensive record which saw them concede 13 times in 10 qualifying matches- by means of comparison, Portugal only conceded 5. As mentioned in my previous post, the play-off matches usually seem to feature 4 home wins, and an equal number of draws and away wins. Given that Saturday saw 2 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw, we can expect a similar sequence of results tonight- this writer would be erring to call this match as a draw. Expect a big effort from Bosnia, with Edin Dzeko causing real problems for the Portugal defence, but I ultimately reckon they will fall just short of the final hurdle.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at 12/5 with Ladbrokes. Also, it wouldn't be right if this writer didn't throw a couple of random anytime goalscorers in. In Pepe and Bruno Alves, Portugal have a pair of centre-backs capable of nabbing the odd goal, as shown by Bruno Alves netting the only goal of the game on Saturday. Pepe will probably be thinking to himself "It's my turn now" and can be backed to score anytime at 12/1 with William Hill. Also, how about Harris Medunjanin to mark his international debut with a goal? He can be backed anytime at 11/2 with bet365.
Portugal go into this game with a narrow, 1-0 advantage from Saturday's 1st leg, courtesy of Bruno Alves' goal. For Bosnia, this will be by some margin their biggest ever game as an independent nation. The game has the potential to be open- previous play-off results tell us that 2nd legs tend to feature more goals that 1st legs- an average of 2.7 goals per game in 2nd legs, compared to 2.45 in 1st legs. Along with this, Bosnia's favoured 3-4-1-2 formation features two wing-backs in Senijad Ibricic (rumoured to be attracting interest from Celtic) and Sejad Salihovic whose strengths are going forward as opposed to backward- the flipside of this being that this gives space in advanced wide positions for the likes of Nani to exploit. Bosnia also must do without the suspended midfield pair of Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic, aloing with centre-back Emir Spahic, and the injured Zvjezdan Misimovic, who looks set to be replaced by debutant Harris Medunjanin. Portugal, aside from the injured CR7, travelled to Bosnia with a fully-fit and suspension-free squad.
The Verdict
As was the case with the 1st leg, this is a very tough one to call. The history books do not favour Ciro Blazevic's men: in the last 12 years, of the 14 teams who have lost the 1st legs of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify. Bizarrely, of the 3 ties where a team has lost the 1st leg and won the 2nd leg, Scotland have featured in 2 of them. Bosnia must also improve on a defensive record which saw them concede 13 times in 10 qualifying matches- by means of comparison, Portugal only conceded 5. As mentioned in my previous post, the play-off matches usually seem to feature 4 home wins, and an equal number of draws and away wins. Given that Saturday saw 2 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw, we can expect a similar sequence of results tonight- this writer would be erring to call this match as a draw. Expect a big effort from Bosnia, with Edin Dzeko causing real problems for the Portugal defence, but I ultimately reckon they will fall just short of the final hurdle.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at 12/5 with Ladbrokes. Also, it wouldn't be right if this writer didn't throw a couple of random anytime goalscorers in. In Pepe and Bruno Alves, Portugal have a pair of centre-backs capable of nabbing the odd goal, as shown by Bruno Alves netting the only goal of the game on Saturday. Pepe will probably be thinking to himself "It's my turn now" and can be backed to score anytime at 12/1 with William Hill. Also, how about Harris Medunjanin to mark his international debut with a goal? He can be backed anytime at 11/2 with bet365.
Tuesday, 17 November 2009
World Cup Qualifying Play-Offs 2nd Legs, Wednesday 18th November
Preamble
The last remaining World Cup places are up for grabs in Europe tomorrow night, and, as ever, this intrepid writer has had his head buried in stats in order to preview these games for y'all. The play-offs are always tense, dramatic occasions, a chance for relative unknowns to become national heroes (in New Zealand, the government are being lobbied to change the name of the national Westpac Stadium to Rory Fallon Park; in 1997, a young Gianluigi Buffon made his Italy debut in a snowy play-off match in Moscow) and for national heroes to become, er, zeroes. Over the last 2 days, this writer has been furiously analysing previous qualifying matches and play-off results (I've been off work with a broken metatarsal), and come to some interesting conclusions:
The last remaining World Cup places are up for grabs in Europe tomorrow night, and, as ever, this intrepid writer has had his head buried in stats in order to preview these games for y'all. The play-offs are always tense, dramatic occasions, a chance for relative unknowns to become national heroes (in New Zealand, the government are being lobbied to change the name of the national Westpac Stadium to Rory Fallon Park; in 1997, a young Gianluigi Buffon made his Italy debut in a snowy play-off match in Moscow) and for national heroes to become, er, zeroes. Over the last 2 days, this writer has been furiously analysing previous qualifying matches and play-off results (I've been off work with a broken metatarsal), and come to some interesting conclusions:
- Ukraine have never progressed to an international tournament through the play-offs. Indeed, in 6 matches in 3 play-offs, they have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 3. Their 0-0 draw away in Greece was their first draw away from Ukraine in the play-offs, and even that result came thanks to a questionable decision to rule out a Fanis Gekas goal
- Over the course of the 6, 8 or 10 matches (depending on the qualifying format, there have been either 3, 4 or 5 play-off matches in 1998-2006 (there were none for EURO 2008)), there have been, in 4 of the 5 tournaments, 4 home wins. With Portugal and Russia securing home wins in the 1st legs on Saturday, it would be reasonable to assume 2 home wins tomorrow night
- Ireland have a mountain to climb in France. Of the 5 teams to have previously lost the 1st leg of their tie at home, none have managed to qualify, indeed only Scotland have managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg after losing the 1st leg at home. Ireland's play-off record against European nations is also poor- they have now won none of their last 5 play-off matches, and only scored 6 goals in 5 away qualifying matches. They've also failed to beat France in 3 competitive internationals over the last 12 years
- As a general rule, if you lose the 1st leg, you're out. Over the past 12 years, out of 14 teams who have lost the 1st leg of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify
- 2nd legs tend to be more open than 1st legs. Over 20 1st legs, an average of 2.45 goals were scored per game. However, in the 2nd legs, this increased to 2.7 goals per game
- Despite the previous stat, don't expect goals galore in the Ukraine v Greece match. Their 4 previous competitive internationals have produced a meagre total of just 6 goals. Consider also Ukraine's defence, which only conceded 6 goals throughout the entire qualifying campaign
So there you have some initial stats to ponder, lovingly computed for y'all by this writer. Full previews of the games to follow
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