Shifty's Season Preview Part 5

BBB

After the Wigan preview, let's stay in Lancashire and assess the chances of Blackpool, Blackburn and Bolton.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool must be one of the most favoured relegation candidates in Premier League history at a general 2/7, and it's difficult to argue against that. So I won't bother.

The squad lacks not only quality but also quantity, and the morale of those players must surely be affected by the late payment of their promotion bonuses- given that they've had to spend money to bring Bloomfield Road up to Premier League standards, Holloway is unlikely to have much leeway to do anything other than raid the reserve teams of bigger clubs for a few loan deals, a tactic they had success with last season with Everton's Seamus Coleman and Aston Villa's Barry Bannan both impressing. Even if Holloway finds another few gems (and Charlie Adam continues his Championship form), they are unlikely to be anywhere other that 20th come May.

Blackpool prediction: 20th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Absolutely fine- their squad is almost exclusively home-grown players, although it's still some way short of the permitted 25.

Blackburn Rovers ended last season very well, finishing 10th. The football under Sam Allardyce wasn't easy on the eye (and never has been under Allardyce) but Blackburn were difficult to beat, particularly at home, as their 10-6-3 record at Ewood Park shows. Allardyce must address their lack of potency in attack, though- their top scorer, David Dunn, managed just 9 league goals, and it's by no means certain that he'll be fit for all 38 games. Allardyce has brought in Manchester United youngster Mame Biram Diouf (allowing him the possibility of a Diouf and Diouf strike partnership), but one suspects they may still struggle to match last season's achievements. They have enough steel and defensive solidity, though, to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.

Prediction: 13th
How they'll cope with the homegrown rule: Just about OK. Allardyce may yet add more Premier League experience, particularly in attack
RoversBet: Their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer means Paddy Power's 25/1 on them to be the Premier League's lowest scorers is very tempting, especially when you consider the more cavalier styles of the 3 promoted sides

Bolton Wanderers under Owen Coyle were a more aesthetically pleasing side than under the deeply unpopular Gary Megson, finishing 14th. They look well placed to continue their improvement, with Coyle promising more entertaining football. Defensively, they are solid- Jussi Jaaskelainen has excelled in this league for a number of years, while Gary Cahill's England debut should come at some point this season. In midfield, Lee Chung-Yong has adapted very well to the Premier League, and was one of the few players in the league to have a good World Cup, while on the opposite flank Martin Petrov could be the free transfer of the summer. Up top, Kevin Davies provides bulk and a physical presence (if not massively prolific infront of goal), while Johan Elmander must surely start to justify his £9 million price tag. The Trotters' squad features a good mix of experienced Premier League campaigners, such as Davies and Jaaskelainen, along with promising youngsters such as Lee, Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Mark Davies (as opposed to the Allardyce regime, which almost exclusively contained 30-something journeymen booting both the ball and the opposition into the air). A top 10 finish is within their reach, provided they can maintain their upward trend under Coyle

Prediction: 10th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. No problems for Coyle in this department, with his side containing experienced Premier League home-grown players such as Davies, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson and Jlloyd Samuel alongside young talent such as Cahill, Mark Davies (a much more cultured technician than Kevin. They are, unsurprisingly, not related, which is unusual, as most people in Bolton are related to each other), Fabrice Muamba and Chris Basham
BoltonBet: Ladbrokes offer 5/1 on Bolton to finish in the top 10

Shifty's Premier League Season Review Part 2

Blackburn Rovers
What I Said: Didn't lose many games, playing a "pragmatic" style. If they can find a regular source of goals, mid-table beckons. Sam Allardyce's side have alos finished bottom of the disciplinary table in 4 of the last 5 seasons
What Actually Happened: Finished 10th, despite not having a single player reach double figures in the league. Even more surprisingly, though, they finished 8th in the disciplinary table. 2 fewer yellow cards and, if Fulham beat Atletico Madrid tomorrow night, they'd be in the Europa League!

Birmingham City
What I Said: Expect low-scoring, binary games. If they can keep a few clean sheets, they look the best-placed of the newly-promoted teams to stay up
What Actually Happened: Stayed up comfortably in 9th, after a 15-match unbeaten run during the winter. 20 of 38 games saw under 2.5 goals, with Joe Hart in goals keeping 10 clean sheets (Maik Taylor managed one against Man Citeh). Ran out of steam a bit near the end of the season, though- Alex Mcleish will need to strengthen in order to avoid the onset of Second-Season syndrome

Bolton Wanderers
What I Said: Should be safe from relegation, but hard to see them challenging for a top 10 place. Ho hum
What Actually Happened: Finished 14th after an unremarkable season. Ho hum

Burnley
What I Said: Much will depend on whether their veterans can cope with the demands of the Premier League. Any side travelling to Turf Moor not fully on their game can expect to be turned over- expect some open games, with over 2.5 goals a bet to be considered
What Actually Happened: 24 defeats from 38 games tells us that their veterans did not cope, depsite some early-season scalps being claimed at Turf Moor. 23 of 38 games saw over 2.5 goals

Chelsea
What I Said: Expect either the Premier League title, the Champions League, or Ancelotti to be sacked
What Actually Happened: Premier League title was won, Jose Mourinho came back to send them meekly out of the Champions League, and Ancelotti's job looks safe as. An ageing squad will need a bit of refreshing in order to challenge again, though. Any new signings should introduce John Terry to their wives with extreme caution

Everton
What I Said: They may struggle to match last season's 5th place without 1 or 2 additions, but should be close to that position. European success is the one thing lacking from David Moyes' CV if he is to be considered a credible successor to Sir Alex Ferguson
What Actually Happened: An atrocious start (losing 6-1 at home to Arsenal, going on 66-1) and rotten luck with injuries hampered Everton's start to the season, but a strong second half of the season saw them finish 8th- if Fulham win the Europa League, then they will qualify for the Europa League through the Fair Play League. You heard it here first. Look up the Premier League disciplinary table.

Betting Tips for Saturday 24th April

Firstly, Shifty and Graeme would like to apologise for the lack of activity on here this last week: this is mainly due to the after effects of consuming gallons of champagne, in celebration of the astonishing achievements of Ross County FC in getting to the Scottish Chup Final- apologies also for getting the preview of that game totally wrong. I said it would be close, but the small loss anyone following the blog may have suffered on that will have been more than offset by Don't Push It triumphing in the Grand National.

Onto this weekend:

• Wolves v Blackburn has the look of being a particularly dreadful game of football. Wolves have drawn 3 of their last 4 games 0-0, and have managed just 10 goals at Molineux all season, with most of their better results coming away from home- witness their 3-1 win last month away at West Ham. While Mick McCarthy's men have struggled at home, Blackburn have been pretty dreadful away, with a 2-4-11 record, managing just 11 goals on the road, shipping 36. Although with Rovers safe, and Wolves nearly there, there is a chance both of these managers may take the shackles off their sides and go out to try and entertain, neither McCarthy or Sam Allardyce are known for being anything other than hoof-it merchants, and one suspects both would be quite happy with another 0-0 draw. Also, given their lack of potency (and both sides' improving defensive records), under 2.5 goals is certainly worth a shout
• A regular favourite bet of this blog is Darren Bent 1st Goalscorer, and it's well worth backing again when Sunderland visit Hull. Iain Dowie's side are in dire straits, and not just because they're Iain Dowie's side- 3 points from safety (effectively 4 considering their wretched goal difference) with only 3 games to play, Hull need a drastic change in fortune in order to stay up, and it just does not look like it's coming- indeed, safe in mid-table, Sunderland are worth backing to pick up only their 2nd away win of the season
• Down at the bottom of the SPL, St Mirren meet Kilmarnock in a relegation dogfight, and expect it to be exactly that- neither side score many goals (Kilmarnock's total in the SPL away from home this season: 4. That's 0.23 per game) and neither side are playing the most stylish stuff at the moment. Have a think about under 2.5 goals in this one as well

Birmingham City v Blackburn Rovers, Tuesday 15th December

My Thoughts

Two sides heading into this one on somewhat different form: Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 games, with Lee Bowyer showing the kind of form that once got him an England cap, and Joe Hart proving to be something of a revelation in goals, with 6 clean sheets to his name so far this season. Indeed' Alex Mcleish's side will go 6th if they win this one. Blackburn, meanwhile, have not won in their last 4 league games, and have scored a grand total of 0 goals in that run. They are also hampered by the abscence of David Dunn for this match. Rovers' record away from Ewood Park so far this season is a dismal 1-1-6, while Birmingham's 4-2-2 at home is respectable.

The Verdict
Everything points to a home win in this one, and this pundit can't argue against that. Birmingham are solid, compact, and have experience in the middle of the park, with the lively Chucho Benitez adapting nicely to the Premier League. It says a lot about Blackburn's form so far that many people are talking about goalkeeper Paul Robinson as a contender for the England World Cup squad, despite conceding an average of 2.62 goals per away game.

The Bet
Birmingham are outstanding value at 11/10 with William Hill. Apart from that, other bets to consider would be Benitez, James McFadden or dead-ball expert Sebastian Larsson to score anytime

From the Dungeon of Decrepitude...

Emerges Graeme, with this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:

After a humdinger of an international week with more dead rubbers than can be found on Dwight Yorke's bedroom floor (copyright James Richardson), it's a return to the trudge of the Premiership this weekend.

What better exemplifies the word trudge than the combined towns of Blackburn and Burnley. All Northern, grey, with everyone wearing flatcaps and munching on HOVIS BREAD!

In truth, there is nothing grey about these two sides. Part of all the glitz of the Premier League, they both try to play football in an attractive manner.

With Big Sam's Blackburn side searching for a healthy response to their last game which included an Emirates spanking for having the audacity to dare to attack a highly impressive Arsenal side. Couple that with Burnley's nifty start to the season- while they've been capable of great performances (including a 1-0 win over Team Manchester), they've also, at times, been terrible (Tottenham 5 Burnley 0)- this gives us the potential for a pulsating game come noon+1 on Sunday. Official Blog Party in the MCB pub for this game on Sunday. Come on down for a beer and a burger.

Silly 1 game treble tip- all odds from bet365

Blackburn to win @ 8/11

Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20

Under 11 corners @ 10/11

Furthermore, another cheeky 50p punt which may be worth it is Arsenal and Birmingham to draw. Mcleish's men have taken 2 draws at the Emirates from their last 6 games there, and bet365 go 6/1 on the draw

I love James Richardson

Shifty's Season Preview Part 2 of This is going to take a while

Birmingham City

If their Championship campaign last season is anything to go by, then Birmingham will probably be one of the most binary teams in the league this season (as any computer geek will tell you, binary is a computing language consisting entirely of 1s and 0s): expect Alex Mcleish's side to be dour and unambitious yet resolute and organised. Up top, their front line will consist of sometimes 2, but more likely 1, from James Mcfadden, Kevin Phillips, new signing Christan Benitez, Garry O'Connor, Cameron Jerome and Marcus Bent: with the exception of the ageing Phillips, none of these men have ever been prolific in the Premier League, and with a lack of mobility and quality in the midfield, staffed by the likes of Lee Carsley, Damien Johnson and Barry Ferguson, they are unlikely to get the quality of service required to change that. Still, defensively they were very strong last season, and new keeper Joe Hart will be eager to claim a place at the 2010 World Cup, should the english qualify.

Verdict: A lot will depend on how the plethora of new centre-backs at St Andrews (Scott Dann, Roger Johnson and Geovanny Espinoza, along with left-back Gregory Vignal) adapt to the Premier League. If they quickly settle in, and the Brummies keep a few clean sheets, then they look best placed of the newly-promoted sides to stay up. If one can find them above evens to stay up, then take it

Blackburn Rovers
It's debatable whether Blackburn avoided relegation last season because of miracle-working by Sam Allardyce, or simply due to the fact that the teams who finished below them were simply awful. This writer is tempted to disagree with Allardyce and conclude that it was the latter. With this in mind, Rovers have seeked to strengthen an already solid rearguard with the permanent signing of Frenchman Gael Givet, as well as adding Dane Lars Jacobsen at right-back. The retention of left-back cum midfielder Stephen Warnock is crucial to Rovers hopes this season. Young French midfielder Stephen N'Znozi has also featured prominently in pre-season, and will be looking to compete with the likes of David Dunn and Stephen Reid to fill the Tugay-shaped hole in the Rovers midfield. Much will be expected of the mercurial Morten Gamst Pedersen on the left wing this season. Up front, Allardyce has inevitably lost Roque Santa Cruz to man citeh-al-magoo, and has reinvested a sizeable chunk of his transfer fee in Croatian forward Nikola Kalinic, for a figure that varies between £6 million and £12 million, depending on which newspaper you read, with Franco di Santo also joining on loan from CSKA London, thereby negating the need for the comedy show that was Christoper Samba in attack.

Verdict: Rovers didn't lose many games last season under Allardyce: expect this to continue, as Rovers contine to play something of a "pragmatic" style. Incidentally, they've been bottom of the league's disciplinary table for 4 of the last 5 seasons, and, as already mentioned in previous posts, this writer would advise you put money on them to "achieve" this again, especially given that Kiwi Ryan Nelsen, who may or may not strangle sheep in his spare time, has been retained. If they can find a regular source of goals, then mid-table should beckon.


Next update to follow at lunchtime

Following on from my last post...

Having looked through more Premier League stats, this writer has another bet to recommend:

Blackburn to get most Premier League red cards @ 6/1 with Paddy Power

Rovers have finished bottom of the EPL disciplinary table in 4 of the last 5 seasons, managing 19th last season. Don't expect curing his side's disciplinary ills to be top of Sam Allardyce's priorities list. 2 of Rovers defensive stalwarts, Ryan Nelsen and Stephen Warnock, managed 15 bookings between them, and with French hardman (I think I've said this before, but it's worth repeating that this is something of an oxymoron) Gael Givet joining alongside Christopher Samba, Rovers may well give the EPL's refs RSI

Well....

'Tis difficult to preview matches right now when there aren't any of any significance being played (last night's Confed Cup Final notwithstanding- my laptop broke, hence the lack of an in-depth preview), so right now, this writer is working hard (hahahaha) trying to find good bets for next season. I've already posted a few (Wolves to go down, Ipswich to win the Championship, Real to win La Liga or Pellegrino to be sacked- one is bound to happen), so here are another couple (more will follow over the next few weeks):

Premier League Bottom Half Market
Only William Hill have got odds upon this market so far, but there could still be value in a few teams. The likes of Burnley, Wolves and Birmingham will be expected to struggle (a good season for all 3 would constitute finishing 17th), while Hull and Stoke will be expected to suffer Second Season Syndrome, a condition that either side could greatly enhance by completing the rumoured signing of Michael Owen. As such, none of these sides are available at particularly tempting prices (Stoke are best priced at 1/9). However, some value could be had in Fulham (4/9), whose squad looks set to be stretched by Europa League football in much the same manner as Portsmouth's last season, and, like Portsmouth did last season, Fulham lack the funds to significantly strengthen. Should influential Norwegian centre-back Brede Hangeland depart, expect that price to shorten further. Another side who could find themselves 11th or lower are Tottenham (8/1). Harry Redknapp is set to sell approximately 937 members of his current squad, some with a proven track record in the Premier League, and will no doubt look to sign a plethora of players. Redknapp's transfer record is decidedly patchy, so should any of his signings (he has already been told he will have to sell before he buys, so the squad may well lack depth, and he hasn't had a decent young player come through in any of his sides since his West Ham days) turn out to be turkeys, expect to see the side fall, and 8/1 look ever more tempting.

Premier League Worst Disciplinary Record Market
This is one table that we can fairly safely rule out the big 4 from dominating. Last season, this was a market dominated by 3 sides, fairly predictably: Stoke (their physical, intimidating style saw them "top" the table, with 74 yellow cards and 5 red cards, although had Arsene Wenger been refereeing their games, at least 2 zeros would have to be added to those totals), Newcastle (so awful were they, defenders simply had to try and stop opposition forwards by any means necessary- many of their 8 red cards were simply desperate defenders hauling dowm opposition forwards who were clean through) and Blackburn (Sam Allardyce is now their manager. I don't think I need to say any more). Rovers in particular have added hard-as-nails French (I know that's a bit of an oxymoron) defender Gael Givet, and Stoke look set to persist with their somewhat primitive style, so expect those two to dominate again. At the moment, only Sky Bet have prices up, but those prices are appealing, with Stoke at 7/2 and Blackburn 9/2.

PS: I hope y'all backed Real Madrid when I first posted them for the Champions League at 10/1. They're now at a general 6/1

Blackburn Rovers v Portsmouth, Saturday 9th May

My Thoughts

Two sides here who probably should be just about safe, but aren't quite there yet. Should either side emerge with all 3 points at Ewood Park on Saturday, however, then they can surely be confident of avoiding league away trips to Plymouth, Barnsley and Peterborough next season. Under Sam Allardyce, Blackburn have undergone something of a revolution, becoming a side who are (usually) tough to beat, if not exactly aesthetically pleasing, however this writer will refrain from that debate for another day. Portsmouth are not too different, with Paul Hart's appointment as caretaker manager coinciding with an improvement in form, although away from Fratton Park they have not won since November, a 2-1 victory at Sunderland 1 of only 2 away wins all season, although it remains to be seen how much pressure their backline will face should Sam Allardyce continue his "Christopher Samba as a centre-forward" experiment.

The Verdict
Both sides know that a win here should all but confirm their Premier League status- however, given Portsmouth's poor away form, and Rovers' new-found solidity under Allardyce, I fancy Blackburn to edge this one.

The Bet
Rovers can be backed at a best price of 21/20 with Paddy Power. Alternatively, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look at a general 8/11