Friday 13 September 2013

Weekend Betting, 14th September

ALLOW ME TO BEG YOUR INDULGENCE!

This weekend is one of my favourites of the football season from a betting perspective- Scottish Cup 2nd Round time. I shall explain.

This is one of those rare, rare weekends where the punter genuinely has advantage to exploit over the bookmaker. The bookmakers may not admit it, but they're nowhere near as clued up on the relative strengths of the non-league sides in Scotland as those who regularly follow football at that level.

There are a few bankers to be had- Brora Rangers, Wick Academy, Edinburgh City, Inverurie Loco Works, Auchinleck Talbot, Turriff United, Fraserburgh and Spartans should all come through their ties with something to spare. As a general rule, expect most of the Highland League teams to progress in their ties with non-Highlands teams. Compared to the rest of the non-league scene in Scotland, the Highland League is very strong at the moment. A number of clubs, notably Brora, Nairn County & Formartine all have wealthy backers as they chase the play-off place at the end of next season which could earn them a place in the senior structure.

Nairn County represent the standout bet of the cup ties. Competition sponsors William Hill offer 19/5 on them winning at Linlithgow Rose, which is extremely generous considering the strength of Nairn's squad (including Daniel Moore & Stuart Leslie, 2 of the standout players at 3rd Division Elgin City last season, and former Ross County U20 captain Archie Mcphee) and their track record for raising their game in the cup competitions (just ask Clyde and Arbroath). Huntly also represent good value at Evens (again with Hills) at home to Preston Athletic

Of course, it's not just the Scottish Cup going on this weekend. There's plenty of fun to be had elsewhere, notably at Villa Park, where Aston Villa can continue their upward trend with another enterprising, vibrant display at home to a Newcastle side who were poor on their travels last season and, Coloccini and Santon aside, have a defence that still does not fully convince. Paddy Power will give you 6/5 on the home win. Going back up to Scotland for a moment, a viable case can be made for an away win in all 6 matches in the SPL- it would be no surprise to see at least 3 or 4 of Celtic, Aberdeen, ICT, Motherwell, Hibs and Dundee United claim 3 points this weekend.

And finally, just a wee reminder. If you're lucky enough to be a player with any Scottish team, then you're more than welcome to read this blog. Just don't actually place any bets based on what you read on here, eh?