Shifty's Season Preview: the SPL

My Thoughts

Both halves of the Old Firm have seen their squads change significantly- while Celtic have added quantity and quality sufficient for the SPL (how the likes of Daryl Murphy and Charlie Mulgrew will cope in the Europa League remains to be seen, however), Rangers have lost a significant number of players. While the losses of Steven Smith, DaMarcus Beasley and perhaps even Nacho Novo may not be felt, they will surely miss the goalscoring ability of Kris Boyd, and the balance in midfield offered by Kevin Thomson (the merits of having a left-footed player alongside a right-footed player in the centre of the park are much under-appreciated), and the loss of promising centre-back Danny Wilson to, in all probability, Liverpool's reserve team, will be a blow. While it's unlikely Rangers will be playing Champions League football after Christmas, their continental exploits will surely stretch their slimmed-down squad to its limits. Admittedly, Celtic are unlikely to go much further in the Europa League, but their bigger squad means they are better-equipped to compete on 2 fronts, which is why this writer is tipping Neil Lennon's side to reclaim the title. Lennon adapted well to life as an SPL manager, with Celtic winning all their league games under him last season, losing only to Ross County in the Scottish Cup Semi-Final.

Behind them, the rest of the top 6 looks fairly clear-cut. Dundee United look solid, if perhaps short of a 20-goal striker, while Motherwell look set to continue their improvement under Craig Brown, and can't be ruled out from a challenge for 3rd. Hearts could well move above Hibs if Australian comedian Jim Jefferies can keep Kevin Kyle fit- as long as referees continue not to penalise him in the SPL, he'll continue to climb all over defenders for headers, while Hibs' season imploded towards the end of last season- John Hughes' side never really recovered from their Scottish Cup exit at the hands of Ross County.

Down nearer the bottom, Aberdeen and St Johnstone have outside chances of making the top 6, with the other 4 teams (Hamilton, Inverness, Kilmarnock and St Mirren) battling (often literally- don't expect much football to be played at this end of the division) to avoid the drop. The caravan-dwellers from Inverness have SPL experience in their ranks, and look arguably the best placed of the 4 to survive. Hamilton will miss James McArthur, but have the ability to scrap their way out of trouble, and as long as they can find a reliable goalscorer, they should just be OK. Kilmarnock under new manager Mixu Paatelainen have adopted a novel transfer policy this summer of signing players who have the same name as established quality players, namely Mohammed Sissoko and David Silva. Unfortunately for them, Juventus and Manchester City are likely to notice should Paatelainen attempt to swap his players for their more famous namesakes, although this writer is considering changing his name to Bastian Schweinsteiger in an attempt to get a game at Rugby Park. The favourites for relegation, however, must be St Mirren. Gus Macpherson has left to be replaced by former Cowdenbeath boss Danny Lennon, who has taken a number of his old players with him to St Mirren. Lennon clearly trusts these players, but there's no getting away from the fact that Paul McQuade and Gareth Wardlaw were 3rd division players 12 months ago. Factor in the loss of the excellent Andy Dorman, and St Mirren look set for the drop.

Bet: St Mirren to be relegated @ 11/4 general

Weekend Betting, Saturday 13th February

Here's some tips for the weekend's football fixtures, liiiike:

• No Premier League games this weekend, and there's not a huge amount tempting me in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron, so off to the Championship we go. Leicester are going well at the moment- they look like a decent side, and on current form should be among the play-off contenders at the end of the season- and should see off Scunthorpe, who are pretty abysmal away from home. 3/4 with Blue Square looks like a very good price, especially considering this pundit had them at 2/5 (more about that later)
• Staying in the Championship, and remaining on the subject of teams who are abysmal away from home, Peterborough have the worst away record in the division, and travel to Gordon Strachan's improving Middlesbrough/Celtic collaboration. The Boro/Hoops are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred to see off Jim Gannon's men
• Speaking of Peterborough, they will be hoping to avoid jumping down to League One, something this blog is going to do now. Stockport's form has been dreadful, although they have improved in recent weeks, and will surely trip someone up sooner rather than later. However, don't expect it to be Aidy Boothroyd's Colchester side, who are available at a best price of 4/5 with Coral
• Into the SPL, one could make a case for all 5 away teams winning. Of the 5, the best value bet looks like Motherwell to win away at Hamilton. These two met just last week, with Motherwell emerging as 1-0 winners, and following their excellent performance in their midweek 1-1 draw with Rangers, they will be confident of inflicting further damage on a Hamilton side beginning to really suffer from that old cliche, Second Season Syndrome. Motherwell can be backed at a best price of 6/4 with Skybet

And now for me to tell y'all what I was on about earlier on. Basically, I've started pricing matches myself. On the Tuesday before the weekend, I'll nab me a fixtures list (usually from the BBC website) and before the bookies have their prices on, I'll go through and estimate what the prices should be, while also noting down the teams I fancy betting on. Then, when I make my weekly trip to the bookies (actually scratch that. One of my trips to the bookies) I'll compare their prices with my own, and if their price on a game I fancy is better than mine, then I'll take that bet.

The system isn't perfect yet, I'll no doubt have to refine it for such aspects as building a small profit margin, but I'd recommend trying it, and keep y'all posted on how my system works

Shifty

Rangers v Celtic, Sunday 4th October

My Thoughts

A mixed week in European competition for these two sides: Rangers were taught a lesson in counterattacking football from Master Manolo Jimenez and his grade-A students from Sevilla, while Celtic will be pleased that they didn't lose their game. Both teams also have mixed news on the injury front: after their midweek result, Rangers have doubts over Madjid Bougherra (who is lost somewhere in last Tuesday), Davie Weir (as discussed in a previous entry on here), Sasa Papac (who has blurred vision) and Jerome Rothen, who was found in the Sevilla laundry room last night, still in the shorts pocket of their right-back, Abdoulay Konko. The NHS have also been in contact with Rangers regarding Allan McGregor's goalkeeping jersey, requesting that it come with a health warning, due to the likelihood of it causing seizures. Celtic, on the other hand, look set to have Andreas Hinkel and Paddy McCourt (Old Firm side in signing Irish player shocker) back in contention, after both players missed their 1-1 draw with Rapid Vienna.

The Verdict
Last season's Old Firm games were as tight as ever, save for Rangers' 4-2 win at Celtic Park last August. The last 4 meetings between the 2 sides have produced just 4 goals, so we're certainly due a few. Given the horsing that Rangers back line took at the hands of Sevilla, Tony Mowbray must be optimistic for his first Old Firm derby as a manager. Celtic to edge it, perhaps by the odd goal in 5

The Bet
Of course, my talking up of the possibility of goals could turn out to be a load of rubbish. If so, 1-0 Rangers is available at 7/1 with totesport, with 1-0 Celtic 15-2 at Skybet. However, over 3.5 goals is also worth a look, currently available at 10/3 with Extrabet. The same bookie also offers 5/2 on Scott McDonald to score anytime, following his goal in midweek and after scoring at Ibrox last season. For Rangers, Nacho Novo has been the scourge of Celtic in the past- he's available at 3/1 with Skybet to score anytime