AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February

My Thoughts

This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.

The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.

The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals

Sunderland v Tottenham, Saturday 3rd April

My Thoughts

This looks like being one of those matches that the end of the season tends to produce- while Sunderland's tally of 35 points should be enough to keep them out of a relegation battle, Tottenham still have everything to play for, as they attempt to hold onto 4th place.

The Verdict
A run of 1 defeat in their last 6 has taken Sunderland clear of relegation trouble. However, their mid-season slump left them far too far back to consider a challenge for the UEFA Cup places- additionally, they perhaps have only 3 players in their squad looking to push for a World Cup place- therefore, Steve Bruce's men may well feel that they can take their foot off the gas in this one. Tottenham, on the other hand, will know that, with Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool (Aston Villa must now be considered out of the running for 4th place) all having very winnable games this weekend, and with Harry Redknapp's men still to face Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, 3 points at the Stadium of Light are essential. This is the sort of game that, in previous years, Tottenham would most likely have struggled in. However, this is a much-improved Tottenham team that has learned how to grind out results- witness their current 5-match winning run. It will be tight, but they are well capable of making it 6 wins in a row

The Bet
Tottenham to win outright can be backed at a best price of 23/20 with William Hill. Alternatively, it's worth playing safe with Tottenham 2X, available at a best price of 1/3 with Stan James. As previously mentioned on this blog, Darren Bent 1st scorer is, in this writer's opinion, the best value bet in the Premier League this season- it's available at 5/1 with William Hill. Now, add all these predictions together, and methinks you'd end up with a correct score of Sunderland 1 Tottenham 2- such a bet is available at 17/2 with Skybet

A few random bets to tickle your fancy this weekend

Here's a few random bets that have taken my fancy this weekend. Back with a mixture of caution, and pay-day-fuelled gusto:

• Arsenal are 4/6 with Ladbrokes to beat Tottenham in the Saturday lunchtime game. No amount of statistics can accurately portray just how good a bet this is, but OK then, here's a couple. Witness Spurs' complete capitulation against Manchester United and Chelsea this season- their opening day win against Liverpool was a flash in the pan, not a sign of a genuine sustained top 4 challenge. Also, Arsenal don't generally lose home games- witness even their dismantling of Portsmouth and Birmingham this season- perhaps they are finally mastering the art of breaking teams down at home
• A red card in the Manchester United v Blackburn Rovers game. Referee Phil Dowd has issued 4 red cards in his 8 Premier League games so far this season, and has in the past issued no fewer than 5 red cards to Manchester United players, including being a prominent member of the I Have Sent Off Paul Scholes Club (global membership is estimated at 267). Given that Man Utd have had 2 red cards in 3 days, and that Rovers tend to favour a, shall we say, "combative" approach, Dowd could be well be delving into his top pocket in the Saturday teatime game. Paddy Power offer 9/2 on there being a red card in the match
• Livingston to beat Montrose. Livingston will, in all probability, have too much firepower in their squad for the rest of the 3rd Division to cope with, and it's difficult to see struugling Montrose offering much resistance tomorrow. Livingston are 8/13 with Blue Square
• If you're going for Arsenal to win at 4/6 tomorrow, then you can cover yourself with Paddy Power offering 7/5 on the double chance Tottenham / Draw. As for a random punt on this one, how about Arshavin 6/1 1st goalscorer?

Silly Graeme's Bet Here's

With Tottenham undergoing their traditional complete loss of form as the clocks go back, compounded by the suspicious team selections that have nothing to do with Harry seeking ever more funds this coming January (http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Harry_Redknapp ), we can expect to see a heavy defeat for Spurs in the early kick-off this Saturday.

Arsenal to win 3-1: 10/1 @ William Hill

Fortress Turf Moor!

Hull and Brown to sink- 1-0 Burnley

Weekend Accumulator:

Chelsea to win

Sunderland to win

Stoke Wolves Draw

Fulham Torres Draw

30/1 @ William Hill

Tottenham v Stoke City, Saturday 24th October

My Thoughts

Tottenham have made a very impressive start to this season- only Manchester United and Chelsea, the two teams above them in the leage right now- have managed to beat Harry Redknapp's side, and it's no secret that Spurs' start to the season has been down to the form of their frontmen, with Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane all in fine goalscoring form, and all contributing to Spurs' total of 21 league goals so far, an average of 2.33 per game. However, question marks still linger over a defence which has only kept 1 Premier League clean sheet this season, and Redknapp will no doubt complain before Saturday's match about 1 or more of his cente-backs being out injured. Get your excuses in early, eh Harry?

Stoke have made a solid start to their Difficult Second Season. They currently reside in 9th place, although they are no more aesthetically pleasing than last season, with complementary neck braces still de rigeur at the Britannia Stadium. Their away record last season was woeful, and while this season they have managed 3 draws on their travels, Tony Pulis' side still face a very difficult task if they are to get anything from this one.

The Verdict
As previously stated, Stoke will make Spurs work for this one. Expect Stoke to favour the aerial route, and possibly just James Beattie (this writer must admit he is puzzled by the lack of "Beattie for England" calls) on his own up top, to try and work whatever makeshift defence Redknapp has spent £20 million on. However, expect Spurs' superior quality in midfield, and greater potency in atttack (even without the suspended Defoe) to eventually shine through and lead to a home win.

The Bet
Spurs are available outright at 2/5 with Blue Square. Due to Spurs' defensive record, it's difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, therefore a scorecast of 2-1 Spurs could be considered, especially as a tough, combative Stoke side are unlikely to let them walk this one

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley Prices

Tottenham Hotspur to win outright: best price 4/11 with Paddy Power
Jermain Defoe to score anytime: best price 6/5 Coral
Peter Crouch to score anytime: best price 13/10 Paddy Power

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley, Saturday 26th September

Aleksandr the Meerkat

My Thoughts

Spurs are on something of a roll right now. Two defeats against top 4 sides notwithstanding, they have a 100% record this season, with their latest win coming in the Carling Cup, 5-1 away at Preston, a match in which a Peter Crouch hat-trick very nearly destroyed our very reality. Next to (OK, below) Crouch is Jermain Defoe, the Aleksandr the Meerkat to Crouch's BFG, who has been scoring goals for club and country this season as if it's going out of fashion.

Burnley, meanwhile, have fitted most of the "smaller club promoted to Premier League" stereotypes; hyperactive young manager, attacking football, great home record, backed by a fervent crowd, but dreadful away. 9 points from their opening 3 home games? Perfect. 0 points (and 0 goals) from their opening 3 away games? Room for improvement methinks, particularly after Tuesday's 3-2 Carling Cup defeat at Barnsleh.

The Verdict

Expect to see Harry Redknapp whingeing about his total lack of centre-backs for this game- injuries to Dawson, Woodgate, King (again) and Bassong mean that Vedran Corluka and Tom "Pudding" Huddlestone are likely to play together at centre-back. However, Burnely themselves have injury worries, with striker Martin Paterson likely to be out for some time, and keeper Brian "Tubs" Jensen doubtful. Given Spurs' general good form, and Burnley's lack of away form, expect a home win.

The Bet

Tottenham are likely to be too short to back outright with any real value (apologies, readers- this writer is currently at work and therefore unable to access gambling sites. Prices will follow), but Crouch and Defoe both surely must be considered as anytime scorers. Over 2.5 goals is also worth a look, after these two sides' epic ding-dongs in the Carling Cup last year

Shifty's Season Preview Part 8 of the clock is ticking....

Portsmouth

The proposed takeover simply has to go through if Portsmouth are to stay up: there has been minimal investment in what was already a limited squad: the departures of Glen Johnson and Peter Crouch have only served to make the situation even worse. New striker Frederic Piquionne simply has to settle in quickly and score goals, otherwise Pompey are in trouble. Can David James, now 39, be expected to perform miracles in goals again, behind a fragile defence?

Verdict: Expect them to be near the bottom by January, regardless of the takeover situation. Another miraculous escape may then be required.

Stoke City

In Stoke, the local NHS have advised season-ticket holders at the Britannia Stadium to consider investing in a neck brace, for their own health, due to the amount of time the ball spends in the air during Stoke games. Tony Pulis' side were far from the prettiest side in the league, but they were effective, at least to an extent. Their main concern will be that old cliche, Second Season Syndrome. James Beattie will be required to continue his form from the 2nd half of last season throughout the whole of this season (a good season may even lead to a World Cup place for him). In the midfield, Dean Whitehead looks a decent addition, while Matthew Etherington gives the side some much-needed width. Defensively, Abdoulaye Faye and Ryan Shawcross were nigh-on insurmountable at times, and since when did Thomas Sorensen look like an accomplished Premier League keeper?

Verdict: Once again, it won't be pretty, and it may require another couple of shrewd Januray signings, but expect Stoke to survive.

Sunderland

Steve Bruce takes over at the Stadium of Light, and will be expected to improve on last season's dreadful end to the season. He has already started that process by bringing in a number of players, namely Darren Bent (therefore cementing Spurs' status as something of a Sunderland feeder club), Fraizer Campbell, Paulo da Silva and Lee Cattermole. Cattermole will not half add bite to a talented but potentially lightweight midfield containing the likes of Kieran Richardson, Andy Reid and Steed Malbranque. Bent and Campbell will provide goals, although the defence will still be a worry for Bruce. However, there is enough quality (with further investment in the squad, should it be required, likely to come in January) there to suggest mid-table is very much achievable.

Tottenham Hotspur
Harry Redknapp has been at it again, buying and selling players for fun. In have come Kyle Naughton, Sebastien Bassong and Peter Crouch, with numerous players departing to make way. Last season, rather astonishingly, Spurs' defensive record at home was actually rather good, with Gomes, after some early-season jitters, growing immensely in confidence as the season went on. The signings of Naughton and Bassong, as well as the return from injury of Alan Hutton, should help ensure Spurs don't concede many once again. In midfield, Luka Modric began to excel as the season went on, and will be the main creative force again. On the right wing, if Aaron Lennon could actually cross the ball, then he would be a fearsome prospect. Spurs certainly have quantity in attack, with Crouch, Defoe, Pavlyuchenko and Robbie Keane all competing for 1 or 2 starting spots.

Verdict: The squad would appear to be there for Spurs to finish in the top half.

Well....

'Tis difficult to preview matches right now when there aren't any of any significance being played (last night's Confed Cup Final notwithstanding- my laptop broke, hence the lack of an in-depth preview), so right now, this writer is working hard (hahahaha) trying to find good bets for next season. I've already posted a few (Wolves to go down, Ipswich to win the Championship, Real to win La Liga or Pellegrino to be sacked- one is bound to happen), so here are another couple (more will follow over the next few weeks):

Premier League Bottom Half Market
Only William Hill have got odds upon this market so far, but there could still be value in a few teams. The likes of Burnley, Wolves and Birmingham will be expected to struggle (a good season for all 3 would constitute finishing 17th), while Hull and Stoke will be expected to suffer Second Season Syndrome, a condition that either side could greatly enhance by completing the rumoured signing of Michael Owen. As such, none of these sides are available at particularly tempting prices (Stoke are best priced at 1/9). However, some value could be had in Fulham (4/9), whose squad looks set to be stretched by Europa League football in much the same manner as Portsmouth's last season, and, like Portsmouth did last season, Fulham lack the funds to significantly strengthen. Should influential Norwegian centre-back Brede Hangeland depart, expect that price to shorten further. Another side who could find themselves 11th or lower are Tottenham (8/1). Harry Redknapp is set to sell approximately 937 members of his current squad, some with a proven track record in the Premier League, and will no doubt look to sign a plethora of players. Redknapp's transfer record is decidedly patchy, so should any of his signings (he has already been told he will have to sell before he buys, so the squad may well lack depth, and he hasn't had a decent young player come through in any of his sides since his West Ham days) turn out to be turkeys, expect to see the side fall, and 8/1 look ever more tempting.

Premier League Worst Disciplinary Record Market
This is one table that we can fairly safely rule out the big 4 from dominating. Last season, this was a market dominated by 3 sides, fairly predictably: Stoke (their physical, intimidating style saw them "top" the table, with 74 yellow cards and 5 red cards, although had Arsene Wenger been refereeing their games, at least 2 zeros would have to be added to those totals), Newcastle (so awful were they, defenders simply had to try and stop opposition forwards by any means necessary- many of their 8 red cards were simply desperate defenders hauling dowm opposition forwards who were clean through) and Blackburn (Sam Allardyce is now their manager. I don't think I need to say any more). Rovers in particular have added hard-as-nails French (I know that's a bit of an oxymoron) defender Gael Givet, and Stoke look set to persist with their somewhat primitive style, so expect those two to dominate again. At the moment, only Sky Bet have prices up, but those prices are appealing, with Stoke at 7/2 and Blackburn 9/2.

PS: I hope y'all backed Real Madrid when I first posted them for the Champions League at 10/1. They're now at a general 6/1