Some General Musings

Been a while since I posted own on here, so time to address that with some general musings. Some of the usual betting tips will appear again soon enough

Manchester United and referees
Now, regular (and irregular) readers will know of my leanings, but bear with me. Fulham should have had a penalty at Old Trafford last night, no-one's going to argue that one. But likewise, think back to the penalty Newcastle got at Old Trafford earlier this season. It sounds cliched, but these things generally do even themselves out over a season
Some stats have also emerged regarding the number of penalties (most in the league) and yellow cards (fewest in the league) awarded to Man Utd in recent weeks. There is a perfectly logical explanation for both of these, and it's nothing to do with referees favouring Man Utd (indeed, if you want to talk about a Premier League referee favouring a particular team, look at Chelsea's results in games refereed by Martin Atkinson). Quite simply, United typically spend more of the game in possession and attacking their opponents. In order to be awarded a penalty, you obviously need to be in possession of the ball in your opponents' penalty area- the more often you're in the opposition box, the more opportunities you're likely to get for them to foul you.

Similarly, in order for you to pick up a yellow card, generally you need for your opponent to be in possession of the ball. The less time your opponent has the ball, the fewer chances you're likely to have to foul them

Andre Villas-Boas to Inter? Really?
I must admit that, after his totally undeserved and unjustified sacking from Chelsea, I was baffled to hear media reports linking Andre Villas-Boas with perennial basket case Internazionale. Some forensic analysis reveals that the two sides have remarkably similar problems, so much so it's actually hilarious (well, to me anyway) to go through both sides:
Goalkeeper who was outstanding but now a complete liability: Check (Julio Cesar and Cech)
Brazilian centre-back prone to wandering: Check (Lucio and David Luiz)
Veteran warhorse of a cantankerous old bastard alongside: Check (Samuel and Terry)
Young, highly replacements for them who are actually useless: Check (Ranocchia and Cahill)
Portuguese-speaking adventurous full-back affected by loss of form and injury: Check (Maicon and Bosingwa/Ferreira)
Uber-talented but misfiring, ill-fitting, blond, Spanish-speaking centre-forward: Check (Forlan and Torres)
Ageing midfield with not-totally-convincing replacements: Check
A squad that had shown its resistance and unsuitability to a high-intensity style and high defensive line: Check
Megalomaniacal owner with a tendency to hire and fire: Check (Moratti and Abramovich)
After being unable to solve this set of problems at 1 club, why did people expect AVB to be able/willing to do it again somewhere else?

Mon the Staggies

Thoughts from today's games

Something of a Super Saturday today in the Premie League (no offence, but Norwich v West Brom and Fulham v Blackburn a Super Sunday does not make), here are my thoughts for your digestion:

• The biggest surprise at the Britannia Stadium today is that people were surprised by the result. Stoke have always been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, and their deadline day additions have enhanced them even more. Liverpool's start may have looked encouraging, but if you dig a bit deeper the truth is rather different- they only gained control during their 2-0 win at Arsenal once Arsenal DM Frimpong had been dismissed and the Bolton side they dispatched have been exposed as severely wanting by both Manchester clubs. In summary, they are a long way from any sort of title challenge- fourth place is probably the extent of their realistic ambitions. Of Stoke, should they cope with this season's Europa League allied to their league campaign, then an entry to next season's competition is not beyond them


• The Myth of Bolton Under Owen Coyle: they are no more aesthetically pleasing and no less thuggish than they were under both Megson and Allardyce. The only advantages Coyle has on Megson are that his teams do at least play with 2 wingers and 2 out-and-out strikers, and that he is more media-savvy. 8 defeats in their last 9 as well- the end-of-season slump from last season has not been arrested


• FAO Kevin Davies: I hope you're proud of yourself for your assault on Tom Cleverley today. Despite the injury, Cleverley has achieved more in the last 6 weeks than you've done in your entire career. You and your mate Paul Robinson should have been off before the 20th minute today. And what happened to you roughing up De Gea?


• It would be a surprise if both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling do not make the England squad for Euro 2012. One of the 2 should make the right-back berth their own, and after another shambolic showing today, there must be question marks about Gary Cahill's ability at the highest level, as highlighted by this blog recently

Some Tips and Thoughts for 2011

Happy New Year, y'all!

Now, being the generous soul I am, I thought I'd furnish you with a few of my thoughts and tips for 2011. Here goes:

• At least 1 Midlands side will be relegated. Currently occupying 20th place are Wolves, and they look most likely to go down, due to their extreme difficulties in scoring and preventing the concession of goals. Last season, their home record kept them up, as their away form was honking. This season, however, their away form has remained honking (4 points from trips to Merseyside are all they have garnered thus far from 10 away games) while their home record of 4-2-4 leaves much to be desired. They are little better than 1/2 across the board to go down. Along with them, another Midlands team with dreadful away form, Birmingham City could well go down, as they too have seen a previously excellent home record disintegrate somewhat- they are 3-5-2 at home thus far. Frankly, Alex Mcleish's side would not be missed, with their defensive, physical approach and their continued deployment of Leeds Council Asian Community Outreach Officer Lee Bowyer. 32RED will give you 11/5 on Birmingham returning to the Championship
  
• Regular readers of this blog will know of my love for all bets based on Darren Bent scoring. His continued good form this season, along with Wayne Rooney's lack of proficiency infront of goal, means that the circa 3/1 currently on offer on Betfair for Bent to be the Top English Goalscorer in the Premier League should be snapped up


• The Premier League title is Manchester United's to lose.They have the ability and experience required to make it to the finishing line 1st, even though most of their performances this season have been at best average. The know-how of "Golden Oldies" Giggs, Scholes and van der Sar (Gary Neville might be old, but he certainly hasn't been golden when he's played this season), allied to the match-winning abilities of the likes of Nani (who had a sparkling 2010), Berbatov, Park (the scourge of Arsenal), Rooney (whose goal against West Brom might just see him kick on again) and Hernandez should see United claim a 19th league title. This side isn't up to the standard of Arsenal's 2003/04 unbeaten vintage or the Treble-winning side of 1998/99 (Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan, pictured, would never have got near that side), but it's arguably the strongest of the current league. Betfred will give you Evens on the Premier League trophy returning to Old Trafford. He can't understand why you'd bet anywhere else, and with that price, neither can I
  

Fancy a rummage in the January sales? Me neither. Get your hard-earned cash on those treats

• Anyone see that Simpsons episode (around about season 14 I think) where Mr Burns buys up every media outlet in Springfield apart from Lisa's Red Dress Press, where she inspires the residents of Springfield to oppose Burns' empire by starting their own newspapers? Well, I'd like to think of myself as Lisa to Mr Burn's Rupert Murdoch. Check out Graeme's Rant at http://gtm999.blogspot.com
• The Guardian is a great newspaper

FAO JAMES DART: I WANT A PLACE IN YOUR 100 FOR 2012

200 Not Out

Ladies, gentlemen, boys, girls and the ruler of the planet Omicron Persei 8 (actually, who am I kidding? No girls read this), history today is made, for this will be my 200th post on this here blog! Many thanks to all who have read and contributed since the birth of this blog sometime early last year. This special 200th post will feature a bit of everything that we've tried to encapsulate since we started:

Tottenham might not win the Premier League or the Champions League. But we're certainly having fun watching them try
Harry Redknapp's side's Champions League debut has been most impressive, topping what looked like a tricky group (even moreimpressive after being pillaged by Young Boys for the first 30 minutes of their first qualifier), playing with real attacking gumption, while also maintaining a league position on the shoulder of the leading pack. With their impressive array of attacking options, their games have tended to be particularly entertaining, with their 16 league matches so far featuring an average of 2.8125 goals (regular readers of this blog will know of my belief that the under/over 2.5 goals stat is as good an indicator as any of a side's entertainment value and attacking potency). Even more impressively, their 8 European games so far have seen that average rise to a frankly preposterous 4.75 goals per game. Even their 0-0 draw on the opening day at home to man citeh was entertaining, as their attack peppered Joe Hart's goal with shot after shot. Their clash with Chelsea at White Hart Lane on Sunday is massive for both sides

Manchester United might have finally found replacements for Giggs and Scholes- it's just taken Sunderland and Wigan for them to realise this
The form of Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley during their loan spells has been particularly impressive. The technical abilities of the pair have never been in doubt, with the players now gaining invaluable Premier League experience (along with England Under 21 honours) in preparation for, they hope, places in Man Utd's first team next season. Both have also proved to be extremely versatile performers, with Welbeck impressing for Sunderland both upfront and from the left wing, and Cleverley featuring right across Wigan's midfield, capable of both pulling the strings from a central position, and running at full-backs and providing industry from the wings

Now, some tips for this weekend (assuming the games go ahead)

• West Brom's form appears to have picked up after a recent slump, and they make the short trip to Villa Park in good spirits having won their last 2 league games, and with Villa seriously out of form themselves, Coral's 11/4 on the Baggies to triumph looks massive. Worth a punt, especially considering this writer priced them up at 9/5
• There's much that unites Stoke and Blackpool- fond memories of Stanley Matthews, larger than life characters in charge and defiance of expectations in the Premier League. However, there's much that divides them, too, most notably their styles of play. While Stoke's physical, direct style is well-documented, Blackpool's quick, attack-minded gameplan has been a breath of fresh air, although it does leave them exposed to the sort of rapid counter-attacks that experienced Premier League teams are well-versed in, and the evolution in Tony Pulis' side that has seen them bring in speedy, direct wingmen Matthew Etherington and Jermaine Pennant means the Potters can now execute these kind of breaks, as well as offering a significant threat from set-pieces, another area Blackpool have been found wanting in on occasion this season. Admittedly Betfred's 4/6 on the home win is shorter than the 11/10 this writer has priced them at, it's still worth your while taking advantage of it
• Sky's advent of Monday Night Football (well, it was actually the NFL that came up with it) was designed for matches like Man Utd v Arsenal, a crucial game for both sides- a win for either side would be a huge boost for their title chances, with the top 4 all playing one another in the coming weeks. Last season, this clash very much went to stereotype- Arsenal dominating early on with some majestic football but failing to capitalise, with their defensive frailties costing them late in the game. These traits are still very much a part of their game, meaning Sportingbet's 28/1 on half-time/full-time Arsenal/Man Utd should be considered
• Wanna have a guess at what price you'll get on Real Sociedad, 6th in La Liga, having won their last 2 (including the Basque derby conquering of Athletic Bilbao), to win away at Barcelona on Sunday? Victor Chandler will give you 33/1. Yep, that's right, 33/1. A quid on them nets you £34 if they beat Pep Guardiola's superteam. Tempted?
• Have a wee flutter on the mighty Staggies tomorrow. New manager Willie McStay takes Ross County to Partick Thistle tomorrow, with Blue Square offering 7/4 on County taking all 3 points

Weekend Betting Preview, Saturday 6th November

Good evening, all. First things first, happy birthday Craig.



Now, down to business. The appearance of this entry on a Thursday has probably left you wondering that this writer is either a) super-organised or b) off out on the bevvy this weekend. It is the latter of those two options, and relates to the aforementioned birthday greeting. So, this weekend's tips, then (with it being a UEFA Cup Thursday, many games are on Sunday):

• In the Premier League (curiously, the more accurate moniker of Bundesliga and La Liga are Better League has yet to catch on), Manchester United should extend their current unbeaten run to 24 games by beating Wolves at Old Trafford on Saturday, despite "Irishman" Mick McCarthy's side's victory over citeh last weekend. Coral's 1/4 on a United win isn't going to make you a millionaire, though, so for a bit more value, have a look at a few other markets. United have been in good goalscoring form of late, and with Wolves shipping an average of just over 2 goals a game away from home, the general 6/10 available on over 2.5 goals should be snapped up. Another market favoured by this writer is the Anytime Goalscorer market- with Darren Fletcher and Anderson likely to miss out injured, and the possibility of Paul Scholes being rested with Wednesday's Manchester derby looming, there could be a starting place for Darron Gibson (SHOOT!) which makes bet365's 4/1 on him to score anytime appealing


• It's FA Cup 1st Round time! There are a number of "David v Goliath" clashes for you to blindly stick on an accumulator, and among them it's worh backing AFC Wimbledon (1/2), Carlisle (2/9), Port Vale (4/7), Hartlepool (4/11), Hereford (2/9) and Notts County (4/11). However, look a bit deeper and you can find a few potential shocks. One of those could take place at Highbury. No, Arsenal haven't decided to rebuild their old pad, but Fleetwood Town of the Conference host Walsall, who are currently bottom of League One, on a poor run of form and with just one league win away from home this season. Fleetwood Town, in decent form themselves, can be backed at a general 9/4 to beat The Saddlers


• As promised earlier, let's have a look at the Brazilian Grand Prix this weekend. The weather is likely to play a significant part in proceedings for Friday and Saturday at least, with a dry race currently forecast, although that could all yet change. If qualifying were to stay dry, then the general 16/1 available on local boy (and Interlagos specialist) Felipe Massa must be snapped up, even if only each-way. Elsewhere, on what is essentially a power circuit, the Mercedes engine is the donkey to have in the back of your motor, and after doing so in the last 2 races, Michael Schumacher could be set for another top 6 finish- Blue Square'll give you 3/1 on him doing just that. He's pretty handy in the wet, too

"I'm a pro athlete, I'm not trying to be the best at exercise"

What we've learned so far this season

Here are a few things we've learned so far this season, along with a few tips for this weekend:

Darren Bent- the gift that keeps on giving
Last season, this writer was quick to jump on the Darren Bent 1st goalscorer bandwagon, and made a healthy profit from doing so. He's started this season in good form as well, with 5 Premier League goals so far, 2 of them 1st, as well as getting off the mark internationally. This afternoon he's available at a shade under 7/1 1st goalscorer with Unibet, and 23/10 anytime scorer with Boylesports- outstanding value against a Manchester United defence that has conceded 9 goals in 5 away games in all competitions so far this season

Sir Alex Ferguson may have a sense of humour
When asked about Javier Hernandez's winning goal against Valencia, Sir Alex's response was along the lines of "he needs to work on his physique, but he's a fantastic finisher, it's like shelling peas to him". Hernandez bears the moniker "Chicharito" on the back of his shirt. Chicharito in Hernandez's mother tongue, Spanish, of course means "Little Pea". I'm here all week (Sir Alex isn't, though- he's not talking to anyone from the media for a month)

Steve McClaren is Wolfsburg boss, and was FC Twente boss last season
Commentators, pundits, journalists, WE ALL KNOW THIS. You do not need to remind us every time 1 of the 2 aforementioned teams comes up in conversation

A couple of tasty lower-league bets for you this afternoon
Rochdale (4th in League 1, unbeaten in their last 6, 2-2-0 away) are a very tasty 9/4 to win away at 11th place Exeter, while in League 2 table-topping Port Vale (won their last 5, 4-0-0 away from home) are a shade over (OVER!) 2/1 with Victor Chandler away at 12th-placed Oxford (no wins in their last 3, 1-1-2 at home). Tuck in to those, folks

Alessandro Del Piero: still got it
Il Pinturicchio has been in sparkling form for a stuttering Juventus side this season, and although the 35-year-old has yet to score in Serie A, he has been a joy to watch, creating opportunities for team-mates (and keeping new signing Simone Pepe mostly on the bench) and, along with Serbian winger Milos Krasic, providing flair and incision in an otherwise functional Juventus side. Extrabet offer 9/1 on him to get off the mark with the 1st goal in tomorrow night's game away to Inter

Shifty's End of Season Awards in association with Morningwood Industries

The rumours, speculation, and provocative texts from former Serbian Under-21 international Scott Djukic can now stop. The votes have been counted and verified, it's time to announce the winners of Shifty's End of Season Awards:

Player of the Year:
The majority of the voting panel went for Lionel Messi, with honourable mentions for Kevin Nolan, Wayne Rooney, Diego Milito and Richard Brittain. Shifty's rapid recovery from a broken metatarsal also gets a mention

Goal of the Season:
Plenty of suggestions for this award, ranging from Arjen Robben's millimetre-perfect volley for Bayern Munchen against Man Utd, Benjamin Huggel putting a beautiful finish (in off the underside of the bar is to goalscoring what the reacharound is to foreplay) to a fantastic team move, Karim Benzema finishing after that backheel from Guti, Duda from Malaga scoring direct from a corner (I thought it was just me who could do that) and numerous other golazos! from La Liga. But this award has to go to Steven Craig's goal for Ross County against Celtic in the Scottish Cup Semi Final, as it's the goal that the majority voted for. You see, at ShiftysLastWord, we give the people what they want, unlike the Scottish PFA. You won't see us fixing the result of a vote just so an Old Firm player can win. This blog tries to keep the sweary words on here to a minimum, but in the case of the Scottish PFA ignoring the results of the fans' poll in their goal of the season awards to give the award to an Old Firm player, we feel the following is justified:

FRASER WISHART IS A HORSE'S ARSE

Gaffer of the Season:
Derek Adams. Youngest ever manager to lead his side to a Scottish Cup Final- he will one day manage a much bigger club than Ross County

Best-Dressed Man of the Season:
Derek Adams was again the front-runner for this award for sartorial excellence. But after receiving a recommendation from former Serbian Under-21 international Scott Djukic, another candidate entered the running. And, for having the audacity to, in amongst thousands of orange boiler suit-clad Dutch supporters and kilted Scotland fans, wear a suit, and at the Scottish Cup Final opt for the classic kilt-and-County top look, Shifty's taking this award for himself

The How Is He Still Being Paid to Play Professional Football Award
Many contenders here, among them half the Aberdeen team, Joey Barton and Ross Tokely. Michael Carrick was a front runner, but his form only really suffered after his disastrous stint as a centre-back, so this award goes to a player who was truly rotten, the French Charlie Adam, Jerome Rothen

Moment of the Season
Many of the judging panel put forward Steven Craig's goal, but having already given Craig goal of the season, methinks we need to give the award to someone else. As mentioned before, Wayne Rooney has had a magnificent season, one of the high points coming back in January. Carling Cup Semi-Final, 2nd Leg. A pulsating Manchester derby was set to go to extra time, until Ryan Giggs swung a cross over from the right. Up leapt the boy Rooney infront of the Stretford End and BANG! Some of the judging panel were at the game, and experienced what was by far the best atmosphere at Old Trafford for many, many years. The blue-blooded noisy neighbours had been well and truly silenced. Fook off back to Stockport

Stat of the Season
From the Sids 2010: In Feburary, Catalan hospitals reported a 45% increase in the birthrate- exactly 9 months after Andres Iniesta's last-minute goal that took Barcelona into the Champions League Final

Shifty's Season Review Part 4

Manchester United
What I Said: They have every reason to belive that they can claim a 4th European Cup and a 19th Premier League title. Expect Ben Foster to be gradually phased in as 1st choice goalkeeper
What Actually Happened: Missed out on both titles, with only the Carling Cup being successfully defended. Poor form early in the season pushed Foster out of contention for the England squad, and may lead to him being one of a number of players through the Old Trafford exit door this summer

Portsmouth
What I Said: With minimal investment in an already limited squad, expect Pompey to be near the bottom come January, and praying for another miraculous escape
What Actually Happened: The financial situation deteriorated to such an extent that Pompey became the first Premier League club to be placed into administration, with the subsequent 9-point deduction merely serving to confirm what already looked like certain relegation. They at least went down with a fight, with some decent end-of-season form giving them a glimmer of hope for the FA Cup Final

Stoke City
What I Said: It won't be pretty, and may require a couple more shrewd signings, but expect Stoke to survive again
What Actually Happened: Dear sweet Jeebus it wasn't pretty (just like Aaron Ramsey's leg), even with the addition of Tuncay, but Stoke comfortably survived, notching up 2 more points than they did last season. This is a crucial summer for Tony Pulis and his side- how much ambition do they have, now that they have established themselves in the league? Will they look to play some more stylish football next season?

Sunderland
What I Said: A talented midfield and forward line (with potential for further investment in the squad in January) suggests that mid-table is very much achievable
What Actually Happened: Finished 13th after a consistently inconsistent season. Darren Bent's goals (many of them 1st, as previously reported here) not only won this writer a fair wad of cash over the season, but also got him into Fabio Capello's initial 30 man squad for the World Cup. Just 2 away wins in the league all season, though, sugest that there is still work for Steve Bruce to do

Tottenham Hotspur
What I Said: Spurs shouldn't concede too many once again, while strength in depth in midfield and attack suggests that a top-half finish is where they're heading
What Actually Happened: A great season saw Harry Redknapp's side finish 4th. They're still a long way off the level of those sides ahead of them, and demonstrated some worrying inconsistencies particularly against the smaller teams in the league (Stoke, Hull, Wolves and Burnley all took points off them), but they showed plenty of admirable qualities in trumping Man City, Aston Villa and Liverpool in the race for 4th

West Ham
What I Said: A quiet summer on the transfer market demonstrating Zola's faith in some talented youngsters
What Actually Happened: Never got going, and ended up in a relegation battle they seemed ill-equipped for. The January signing of Ilan proved to be of paramount importance, as the Hammers would have been in even more bother (only goal difference would have kept them ahead of Burnley) than they already were- it could be credibly argued that they were only saved by having 3 teams below them who were, let's be honest, pretty terrible. Zola's dismissal came as no real surprise

Wigan and Wolves both stayed up without ever looking like doing much more, but both did it in completely different ways. While Wolves plundered just 32 goals all season, and were generally pretty poor to watch, Wigan at least gave us some entertainment, and some remarkable scorelines. Home victories over Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were offset by some utter gubbings- three 4-0 losses (including one at Portsmouth!), a 5-0 loss at Old Trafford and of course 8-0 and 9-1 shellackings away at Chelsea and Spurs respectively

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

After months of sporadic posting I am back to post a stupid bet the day before for the first time in ages.
Agreeing with Shifty's last post, this season has been far harder to predict. Personally, I have only broken even and that is purely down to laying matches at huge potential risk to my bank balance.
On a positive note, this season has seen the rise of the mighty Ross County as exemplified by a mention on the Guardian Football Weekly podcast (32:30 minutes in).
So let's take stock. The Premier League, which teams are going down, and in what order are the top teams going to be found come May?
After at least half an hour looking at the relevant fixtures this evening on the BBC Sport website I can say with real confidence that Portsmouth are going to be relegated. I really hope that muppet with the bell finds something else to do with himself if his team have to sell their ground to make way for a new car park or Tesco.
However, every other place in the division is up for grabs. Relegation it seems is going to claim 2 out of Hull, Burnley and West Ham, big cheers for Mick McCarthy (Shifty's tip for the next Celtic manager) for showing how practice can make perfect in how to keep a newly promoted side up. Well done Wolves, you are nearly there.
To win the title however, and indeed the top 8, it is much harder to call the final line up. So here goes:
1. Manchester United (only if Rooney stays healthy)
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Everton (what am I thinking, but they have the easiest run in)
5. Tottenham
6. Liverpool
7. Manchester City
8. Aston Villa

In other leagues, specifically the Irn Bru First Division, if the mighty County can beat Dundee at home and ICT Scum midweek the club are in pole position to win the league. This is unbelievable. I, like most other Ross County fans, am positively creaming my pants over this whole scenario.
The third league being looked at is possibly the most interesting. The Irn Bru EPL, run courtesy of the Premier League, is my fantasy football league and the race for 4th place is between Shifty and Graeme's sides as we enter the final phase of the season. Anyone can still join, just go to fantasy.premierleague.com and the code for my league is 498115-112179.
Silly tip for Saturday? Hearts and Kilmarnock double. £5 on, and who cares about the odds. It would be funny for the Old Firm to both lose twice in a row

What the season has taught us so far...

With the season about to enter the finishing straight, I thought I'd post a few musings and tips from the season so far from a betting perspective:

• This season has been hard. I'm sure, like myself, many folks have had less coupons coming in this season- surprise results seem to be everywhere. Witness particularly a general deterioration in the results of the bigger teams in the top league, particularly away from home
• Manchester United concede the first goal on more occasions than one might think. It's a surprising claim, but in 31 league games, United have conceded the first goal on 11 occasions- that's in 35.4% of their league games. Think about that before blindly picking Wayne Rooney as 1st goalscorer
• The best bet in the Premier League this season is..... Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. He has plundered 50% of Sunderland's league goals so far this season (20 of 40), with 12 of those being the 1st goal in the game. Give that he's very rarely shorter than 5/1 for this bet, it has to be considered outstanding value, regardless of the opposition (Bent has scored 1st against Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool (well, the dubious goals panel were going to give it to the beachball) this season). He still won't make it to the World Cup, though
• Displaced teams. Given the number of teams that have been given points deductions (usually for entering financial quagmire, giggidy giggidy), a number of teams are in slightly false positions, or displaced. Therefore, it is necessary to consider that Southampton and Crystal Palace, to name but two, should really be further up the table. Also consider the position of Livingston in the Scottish 3rd Division, a league their 1st Division squad was demoted to at the start of the season

Everton v Manchester United, Saturday 20th February

My Thoughts

In a rare break from tradition, this writer is again writing up his own team in their lunchtime trip to Goodison Park. It's a fixure in which they have a great record, with Everton only winning once in the last 15 meetings between the sides. Both sides go into this game in good form- United are, as they have done so often in the past, pushing on in the second half of the season, while Everton have recovered from a dreadful start to the season, and have only lost to their Merseyside rivals in the league since November.

The Verdict
United's past record against Everton simply cannot be ignored, nor can the form of Wayne Rooney, but Everton themselves cannot be discounted, especially after their 2-1 victory over Chelsea recently. Although United's track record in this fixture is excellent, there's never much between the two sides at Goodison (only once since 1998 has United's winning margin been more than 1 goal), and another close match seems likely on Saturday.

The Bet
Manchester United to win outright are available at 5/6 with Blue Square, which is maybe just a tiny bit short. Consequentially, Manchester United 2X (which looks the safest bet in the outright result markets) will also be rather short, and unlikely to be much better that 2/9. One also must surely consider Wayne Rooney on the anytime scorer market- he's in the form of his life, and if Sir Alex Ferguson is considering resting him, then he'll surely wait for Tuesday's game at home to West Ham or next Sunday's Carling Cup Final- at 11/8 with Boylesports.

Weekend Betting, Saturday 6th February

Plenty of interesting matches on this weekend for punters to get stuck into. Here's a few tips:

• Hull and man citeh to draw. An away banker this is not. Hull were excellent in their 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea in midweek, and have shown signs of life in recent weeks. With Amr Zaki set to become another option in attack for the Tigers, and teams above them in freefall. Phil Brown's side still have a chance of staying up. citeh are not in top form at the moment- they somewhat laboured to a 2-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend, and their away record of 3-5-3 is patchy. The draw is available at a best price of 11/4 with Ladbrokes
• Bolton to beat Fulham. Under Owen Coyle, while the results haven't yet come (and that's really more due to a tough run of fixtures), there has been a marked improvement in Bolton's recent performances. Fulham, however, had lost their last 5 leage games before their midweek 1-0 win over Portsmouth, and are still dismal away from home. With Andy Johnson out injured for the season, Clint Dempsey also injured, Diomansy Kamara away on loan to Celtic and new signing Stefano Okaka still finding his feet in English football, it's difficult to see where the support for Bobby Zamora upfront is going to come from. Bolton look good value at 6/5 with Paddy Power. As a side bet, in addition to Fulham's aforementioned striking problems, Bolton have tightened up defensively under Coyle, so under 2.5 goals is worth a punt at 8/11 with Stan James
• Let's be honest, the question today at Old Trafford will not be "Will Wayne Rooney score?". The question will be "How many will Wayne Rooney score?". Some bookies go as long as 28/1 on Portsmouth winning, and it's difficult to see even an inspired David James behind a flat back 10 keeping out the on-song Rooney, who can be backed to score 2 or more goals in the game at a ridiculously short best price of 3/1 with William Hill (folks, that really is the BEST price I could find- some firms go as short as 6/4 on this bet). Therefore, a random punt at first goalscorer could be worth a shout at Old Trafford today- Nani is finally starting to produce, and is available at a best price of 7/1 with Ladbrokes
• To the Active Nation Scottish Cup! Some interesting ties this weekend. Montrose have improved in recent weeks, but Hibs should still have far too much for them, so take Hibs on the -1 handicap at a best price of 1/3 with Coral. Elsewhere, St Johnstone and Dundee United recently served up a 3-3 ding-dong in the SPL- these two evenly matched sides could serve up another draw at McDiarmid Park today, with the draw available at a best price of 12/5 with William Hill

Manchester United v Burnley, Saturday 16th January

My Thoughts

Some say he once threw a bucket of chicken wings at Ivano Bonetti. And that he is terrified of shrubs. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and he's Burnley's new manager.

Anyway, on to Saturday's match at Old Trafford. Burnley travel to Old Trafford winless in their last 9 league games and dreadful away from Turf Moor, with a new man in charge with zero Premier League experience and up against a Manchester United side, who, despite a mid-season crisis which has seen them lose a total of 1 game in the cup, have a home record this season of 8-1-1. Welcome to the Premier League, Brian.

The Verdict
As mentioned previously, Burnley are dreadful away from Turf Moor- their record thus far this season is 0-1-9, and it's extremely difficult to see how that won't be 0-1-10 come 5pm on Saturday. Clarets fans will point to their side's 1-0 triumph in the reverse fixture earlier this season, but it's difficult to see a side which has conceded an average of 3.1 goals away from home being able to contain the likes of Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs, ..erm....Antonio Valencia......that's probably about the sum total of Man Utd's attacking threat right now. Not all hope is lost for Burnley (upfront, Steven Fletcher has adapted well to the Premier League), but even a slightly off-colour Manchester United should claim 3 points.

The Bet
Manchester United are unlikely to be available at a better price than the 1/7 Blue Square are offering, although I suspect it won't be a walkover in terms of the scoreline. For a cheeky correct score prediction, 2-0 Man Utd should be avaliable around about 7/1. Apart from that, I would still expect United to dominate most of the game- over 10 corners should definitely be considered, especially if Darron Gibson plays- just think of all those long-range shots of his picking up deflections or testing Brian Jensen

Man Utd v Besiktas, Wednesday 25th November

My Thoughts

This must surely be the most eagerly-anticipated game that has ever been written up on this here blog. Not just for the match itself (already-qualified Man Utd face almost-out Besiktas), but because this game is the centrepoint of Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure, which will see this here blog's intrepid pundits take in this match (preceded by a big sit-in meal in Harry Ramsdens), followed by a night of light revelry in Manchester.
As for the match itself, with qualification to the last 16 already secured (unlike some), United boss Sir Alex Ferguson will most likely make a few changes to his side- expect either Tomasz Kuszszak or Ben(ny Hill) Foster to start in goals, Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan (but not Zoran Tosic- he wasn't included in United's Champions League squad) to start in midfield, and perhaps a place in attack for either Federico Macheda or Danny Welbeck.

The Verdict
Shifty and Graeme will, by the end of Wednesday, be quite merry, having enjoyed a few light shandies. Oh wait, that's probably not the verdict y'all wanted to hear. Despite the likelihood of changes, United should still field a strong starting 11 and, given Besiktas' poor away form (they conceded 8 on their last trip to the UK), United should edge this one. K Stand, about 1/3rd of the way up, midway along, if you want to keep an eye out for Shifty and Graeme

The Bet
As previously stated, Darron Gibson is a likely starter. He has a beast of a shot on him (witness his goal against Hull last season), and can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 15/2 with Paddy Power. Otherwise, if you fancy a cheeky correct score bet, how about 2-1 Man Utd, available at a best price of 17/2 with Boylesports

Live updates from Shifty and Graeme's Big Blog Adventure will be available on www.twitter.com/father_bloopy

Enjoy

A few random bets to tickle your fancy this weekend

Here's a few random bets that have taken my fancy this weekend. Back with a mixture of caution, and pay-day-fuelled gusto:

• Arsenal are 4/6 with Ladbrokes to beat Tottenham in the Saturday lunchtime game. No amount of statistics can accurately portray just how good a bet this is, but OK then, here's a couple. Witness Spurs' complete capitulation against Manchester United and Chelsea this season- their opening day win against Liverpool was a flash in the pan, not a sign of a genuine sustained top 4 challenge. Also, Arsenal don't generally lose home games- witness even their dismantling of Portsmouth and Birmingham this season- perhaps they are finally mastering the art of breaking teams down at home
• A red card in the Manchester United v Blackburn Rovers game. Referee Phil Dowd has issued 4 red cards in his 8 Premier League games so far this season, and has in the past issued no fewer than 5 red cards to Manchester United players, including being a prominent member of the I Have Sent Off Paul Scholes Club (global membership is estimated at 267). Given that Man Utd have had 2 red cards in 3 days, and that Rovers tend to favour a, shall we say, "combative" approach, Dowd could be well be delving into his top pocket in the Saturday teatime game. Paddy Power offer 9/2 on there being a red card in the match
• Livingston to beat Montrose. Livingston will, in all probability, have too much firepower in their squad for the rest of the 3rd Division to cope with, and it's difficult to see struugling Montrose offering much resistance tomorrow. Livingston are 8/13 with Blue Square
• If you're going for Arsenal to win at 4/6 tomorrow, then you can cover yourself with Paddy Power offering 7/5 on the double chance Tottenham / Draw. As for a random punt on this one, how about Arshavin 6/1 1st goalscorer?

Can't get that 99 Red Balloons song out of me head

Here's this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:

Saturday Accumulator:

Wolves v Villa- Draw
Burnley v Wigan- Home Win
Coventry v West Brom- Home Win
Crystal Palace v Forest- Home Win (Forest will not get 6 wins in a row)
Queen of the South v Airdrie- Home Win

Ladbrokes accumulator odds: 65/1

Sunday Accumulator:

Liverpool v Man Utd- Home Win
Man City v Fulham- Home Win
West Ham v Arsenal- Away Win

6/1 @ William Hill

Liverpool v Man Utd:
1st goalscorer, Yossi Benayoun @ 8/1, William Hill
1st card to Man Utd @ 8/11, William Hill

xxxxxxxxxx

You're the man, eh?

Here's Graeme's Silly Bet for the weekend:

It's Fifa 10 Friday so been slow in getting the post out.

No pumping occurred for Rangers last week, made me look foolish and silly. Still, I think Aberdeen are a really poor side and fully expect Kilmarnock to cause them problems. Tasty low scoring draw methinks.

1-1 draw available at 5/1 wth William Hill

Hawick to lose is a bet I wouldn't touch at the moment for fear of police investigation

OLD FIRM MADNESS!!!!

Ranger are still abject, mind you so are Celtic
3-0 Celtic available at 28/1 with William Hill

Premiership: Man Utd v Sunderland (Shifty will be attending this game. K Stand Tier 2)
Any goal scored in injury time, 15/4. Amidst the recent controversy (what controversy? Ed) could be worth a fateful cheeky punt

Good luck over the weekend, whatever market you bet in
xxxxxxx

Shifty's Season Preview Part 7

Manchester United

Going into last Sunday's Community Shield, there were doubts over how Manchester United would cope without Cristiano Ronaldo. Those doubts lasted approximately 9 minutes, at which point Nani cut in from the left wing and smashed a shot past Petr Cech and into the far corner of the net.
United will be targeting a 4th consecutive Premier League title, but much more importantly, a 19th title overall, which would move them ahead of Liverpool on 18, which would well and truly knock them off their (expletive) perch. It's been an interesting summer in terms of transfers for United: the departures of Ronaldo and Tevez were inevitable, so the question was always going to be about replacements. In have come Antonio Valencia (who may not offer the direct goal threat of Ronaldo, but will offer incision and industry on the right wing), Gabriel Obertan (one for the future) and Michael Owen (who better to have to come on should a goal be required), but perhaps more intriguingly it looks like Sir Alex Ferguson has moved from last season's 4-3-3 to a more traditional 4-4-2, with The Boy Rooney set to operate in the number 10 role alongside Dimitar Berbatov, Owen or Kiko Macheda. Defensively, United's have arguably the 2 best central defenders in the league in Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic (one could even make a case for Jonny Evans joining them as the 3 best in the league), and expect Ben Foster to be gradually phased in as 1st choice goalkeeper.

Verdict: They sing a song entitled "Pride of all Europe" at Old Trafford, a crown that, along with a 19th Premier League title, they have every reason to believe they can claim

Middlesbrough v Manchester United, Saturday 2nd May

My Thoughts

Much of this game may well depend on how strong a team Sir Alex Ferguson picks for this game. With Tuesday's game at Arsenal in mind, United are likely to make wholesale changes for the trip to the Riverside, with the United boss hinting at roles for the likes of Park Ji-Sung, Nani, Paul Scholes, Darron Gibson and Federico Macheda. Jonny Evans is also likely to come in for Rio Ferdinand, who sustained a rib injury against Arsenal on Wednesday, and Wesley Brown may well be on the bench, having completed 90 minutes for the Reserves on Thursday. Expect United's line-up to look something like this:

Foster

O'Shea Evans Vidic Evra

Nani Scholes Gibson Park

Berbatov Macheda

Middlesbrough, while still very much in a relegation scrap, have at least shown signs of life in recent home games, managing a 3-1 victory over fellow strugglers Hull, and were unfortunate to claim only 1 point against Fulham, having created numerous chances. Middlesbrough's record against United is actually quite respectable, with United only winning on 3 of their last 6 trips to the Riverside. With Middlesbrough fighting for their lives, and the possibility of a much-changed (I avoid using the word "weakened" because, even if there are wholesale changes, the players United bring in will all still be accomplished performers at Premier League level) away team, surely Boro will have a chance to get something here.

The Verdict
If Middlesbrough can maintain their decent home form (which has seen them beat fellow title challengers Liverpool at the Riverside) then, against a United side with one eye on Tuesday, they could get something here. Draw

The Bet
The draw can be backed at 16/5 with William Hill. Avoid backing any potential United scorers until the teams are published, but Paul Scholes would appear to have a strong chance of playing. He can be backed at 11/2 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Also, for a bit of fun, a red card can be backed at 13/2 with Paddy Power