Why Andy Carroll IS Worth £35 Million

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But the price tag being bandied about for Carroll can be justified. Here's how.

At 22, Anrew Thomas Carroll still has the majority of his career ahead of him, and has already established himself in the Premier League and with the England national team. Given that his playing style is not overly reliant on pace, which usually a player starts to lose once they reach 30, it's not unreasonable to speculate that he has perhaps 12-15 years of top-flight and international football to look forward to. Given his current level of ability, allied to his future potential, his market value based purely on that is probably somewhere in the region of £15 million.

There are, however, more factors in a transfer fee than just that. Firstly, Carroll's English nationality and junior coaching at Newcastle means he counts as a "home-grown" player, of which each Premier League club must have at least 8 in their 25 man squad, with a similar rule in existence in European competition. Given the dearth of talented English players capable of performing regularly at the highest level, players such as Carroll are much sought-after, thereby increasing their market value- a recent example of this would be the £24 million Aston Villa paid for Darren Bent. Liverpool in particular are short on this type of player.

What also must be considered is the impact Carroll's departure at such a late stage in the transfer window would have on Newcastle. Should the transfer go through, Newcastle would have very little time to source a replacement for Carroll, and given that the prospective fee has been so publicised, this would hinder them in negotiations with other clubs (for example, should Newcastle offer £10 million for a new striker, why should the selling club not push them for more, knowing that Newcastle had £35 million in the bank?), and also leaves them surely too little time to bring in a replacement from overseas. The bracketed argument also applies to Newcastle as the club selling Carroll to Liverpool, with Liverpool's £50 million sale of Fernando Torres set to be completed.

Newcastle would also have to deal with the loss of a player who has scored almost 31% of their league goals this season. Should they fail to sign a striker to replace Carroll (and perhaps even if they do, as the prospective new striker settles in and Newcastle make any adjustment required to their playing style), they would have to deal with the increased possibility of finishing further down the league than their current 9th position, and perhaps even relegation.

And that is why Andy Carroll is worth £35 million

The Flaws in a 10 team SPL, and my vision for a better league, Part 1

It has been announced this week that the SPL have provisionally decided on a 10 team SPL, with a 12 team "SPL2" featuring new regulations such as a requirement for a minimum of 3000 seats and undersoil heating at teams' stadia, along with full-time youth players. Over a few parts (I'm thinking 3) I'll explain why I, along with the majority of Scottish football supporters, feel this is the wrong route for Scottish football to go down, and give my vision for an alternative. In this first part, I'll explain why an 18 team SPL is the way forward.

The basic structure I, as self-appointed Head of All of Scottish Football Administration, would consist of an 18 team SPL- each team would play each other twice. The Scottish First Division would consist of 16 teams, again each playing each other twice, with the Scottish Second Division again consisting of 16 teams, each playing each other twice. The Scottish Third Division would cease to continue, with the teams currently residing in it moving up to the new enlarged Second Division. Between the SPL and the First Division, there would be 3 automatic promotion places at the end of the season, with 3 automatic promotion places also available between the First Division and the Second Division. No promotion/relegation play-offs would be entered into, although this, along with the number of places, would be reviewed annually.

In the SPL, each team would play 34 games, with the First and Second Division teams playing 30 games each. This would allow for all 3 leagues to take a proper winter break of 4-6 weeks from roughly the middle of December to the middle of January, during which time climactic conditions usually prohibit the playing of much football anyway. To accommodate this, the 3 leagues would all start late July, then after returning from the winter break playing until early-mid May, with the final SPL fixtures 1 week after the final First and Second Division matches. The reduction in the number of games will lead to a reduction in the requirement for leauge matches to be played midweek, when crowds tend to be lower.

The Scottish Cup would continue in its existing format. However, the SFL Challenge Cup would be discontinued, in order to allow the SFL to focus on improving the strength of the First and Second Divisions, in order to ready their teams for the SPL.

The existing SPL stadium rules of a requirement for undersoil heating and 6000 seats would remain in place in the SPL. There would be no new ground rules for the First and Second Divisions, and teams promoted from the First Division to the SPL would have 6 months from the end of their promotion season to install enough seats to give them 6000, and a further 6 months to install undersoil heating, in order to minimise disruption to the playing surface mid-season.

The structure of an 18 team SPL, 16 team First Division and 16 team Second Division would require a total of 50 teams. There would be no "pyramid" structure below this, as contrary to popular belief, there is a limited level of desire among the Junior and Highland League clubs for it- the last time a place in the existing structure opened up (when Annan Athletic joined the SFL) there were only 5 applicants. That demand could easily be met by the 8 new places that would be available by clubs such as Spartans and Cove Rangers.

Well, that's my blueprint. Part 2 will follow soon

Today's Championship Games, Saturday 15th January

Thought I'd do some previews in a slightly different format today, and give y'all my thoughts on a few of today's Championship fixtures, a league I know a bit about (although not Swansea v Crystal Palace- that's already kicked off)

Bristol City v Middlesbrough
Both teams were rather disappointingly dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend by Sheffield Wednesday and Burton Albion respectively. Both sides started the season poorly, leading to managerial changes, but while Bristol City have recovered somewhat (with summer signing Brett Pitman finding his feet and starting to score goals at this level), Middlesbrough have been sluggish of late, and their dreadful 2-2-9 away record makes William Hill's 13/8 on Bristol City to win very appealing

Norwich v Cardiff
This 3rd v 2nd clash could be an absolute humdinger. Norwich have been very impressive under Paul Lambert this season- their squad contains few big household names, but many young players with potential and a point to prove, particularly after their FA Cup exit against Leyton Orient, and a strong holiday period leaves them well-placed for at least a play-off place. Cardiff, on the other hand, do have a smattering of big names and experienced players, but have had a ropey holiday period (last week's FA Cup draw away at Stoke notwithstanding), and have already lost 6 away games in the Championship this season. Snap up the 6/5 on Norwich offered by Boylesports

Nottingham Forest v Portsmuth
Forest have an unbeaten home record that stretches back as far as 30 games- their less impressive away form is the main barrier between them and a play-off place, and their attacking artillery looks set to be further enhanced by USA striker Robbie Findley. Portsmouth's recent form has dipped somewhat, culminating in a 3-1 defeat by Brighton in the FA Cup last time out, but they look like they should survive in the Championship this season, which would arguably be considered a success given their financial worries. Forest should be too strong at home for them, though, with 4/6 generally available on the home win

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Some Tips and Thoughts for 2011

Happy New Year, y'all!

Now, being the generous soul I am, I thought I'd furnish you with a few of my thoughts and tips for 2011. Here goes:

• At least 1 Midlands side will be relegated. Currently occupying 20th place are Wolves, and they look most likely to go down, due to their extreme difficulties in scoring and preventing the concession of goals. Last season, their home record kept them up, as their away form was honking. This season, however, their away form has remained honking (4 points from trips to Merseyside are all they have garnered thus far from 10 away games) while their home record of 4-2-4 leaves much to be desired. They are little better than 1/2 across the board to go down. Along with them, another Midlands team with dreadful away form, Birmingham City could well go down, as they too have seen a previously excellent home record disintegrate somewhat- they are 3-5-2 at home thus far. Frankly, Alex Mcleish's side would not be missed, with their defensive, physical approach and their continued deployment of Leeds Council Asian Community Outreach Officer Lee Bowyer. 32RED will give you 11/5 on Birmingham returning to the Championship
  
• Regular readers of this blog will know of my love for all bets based on Darren Bent scoring. His continued good form this season, along with Wayne Rooney's lack of proficiency infront of goal, means that the circa 3/1 currently on offer on Betfair for Bent to be the Top English Goalscorer in the Premier League should be snapped up


• The Premier League title is Manchester United's to lose.They have the ability and experience required to make it to the finishing line 1st, even though most of their performances this season have been at best average. The know-how of "Golden Oldies" Giggs, Scholes and van der Sar (Gary Neville might be old, but he certainly hasn't been golden when he's played this season), allied to the match-winning abilities of the likes of Nani (who had a sparkling 2010), Berbatov, Park (the scourge of Arsenal), Rooney (whose goal against West Brom might just see him kick on again) and Hernandez should see United claim a 19th league title. This side isn't up to the standard of Arsenal's 2003/04 unbeaten vintage or the Treble-winning side of 1998/99 (Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan, pictured, would never have got near that side), but it's arguably the strongest of the current league. Betfred will give you Evens on the Premier League trophy returning to Old Trafford. He can't understand why you'd bet anywhere else, and with that price, neither can I
  

Fancy a rummage in the January sales? Me neither. Get your hard-earned cash on those treats

• Anyone see that Simpsons episode (around about season 14 I think) where Mr Burns buys up every media outlet in Springfield apart from Lisa's Red Dress Press, where she inspires the residents of Springfield to oppose Burns' empire by starting their own newspapers? Well, I'd like to think of myself as Lisa to Mr Burn's Rupert Murdoch. Check out Graeme's Rant at http://gtm999.blogspot.com
• The Guardian is a great newspaper

FAO JAMES DART: I WANT A PLACE IN YOUR 100 FOR 2012