Weekend Betting, Saturday 16th October, and the incontinence problem among bookmakers

Getting these on the now as I'm off to Old Trafford tomorrow. K Stand Tier 2

Here are a few tips for the weekend, then:

• Arsenal, despite their recent aberration at home to West Brom, should have enough to comfortably dispose of a Birmingham side whose recent form can best be described as patchy. Boylesports' 1/3 is probably about right, along with over 2.5 goals at a general 1/2 in a game that usually produces them
• Aston Villa host Chelsea in the 5.30pm game, a fixture that Villa won 2-1 last season. Given this, and that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Lampard and Alex amongst others, the 4/1 generally available on Villa seems good value. This is a fixture that has caught Chelsea out in the past, indeed a trawl through this very blog's archives will produce this writer tipping Villa in this fixture last season. Also, you'll never guess where this writer was the day of that game. Also worth considering in this game is John Carew 1st goalscorer- the giant Norwegian will be relishing the prospect of facing a potentially makeshift Chelsea defence, and is available at a best price of 10/1 with bwin
• There are a few interesting bets to be had in the Championship this weekend. Doncaster to win away at Scunthorpe are great value at 15/8 with Stan James, while another away win in Yorkshire could be seen at Bramall Lane, with Burnley available at a general 7/4 to triumph over inconsistent Sheffield United. The best value bet, though, might just be Norwich to win away at QPR at an outstanding 9/2 with bet365. QPR's excellent start to the season has been well-documented, but Norwich under Paul Lambert have been quietly impressive on their return to the Championship and currently reside in 3rd place. The 9/2 on the Canaries could be a nice single if you're feeling brave, alternatively the double chance Norwich-Draw is available at a general 11/10
• It's official: the bookies have shat themselves! Many have suspended betting on Stirling Albion v Dundee tomorrow, and those that are still running markets have severely shortened Stirling Albion after the redundancies at Dundee today. Of the odds still available, Hills' 6/5 as as good as you'll find (they were 7/4 yesterday), and should be snapped up- Albion must surely now be favourites given the shedding of playing and coaching staff forced upon Dundee
• As regular readers of this blog will know, this writer tends to shy away from betting on his own teams, but the 4/1 offered by Ladbrokes on Ross County to win away at Dunfermline is very tempting, especially considering the return last weekend of strikers Andy Barrowman and Steven Craig for the Staggies

Remember the name, Shinji Kagawa

Arsenal v Burnley, Saturday 6th March

My Thoughts
Some say Brian Clough signed him without seeing him play, telling him "If you're crap, Ronnie Fenton signed you. If you're good, I signed you". And that on Wednesdays, he insists on tying his shoes with his teeth. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and dear sweet jeebus does he have a tough task on Saturday away at an Arsenal side who are now within sniffing distance of the top of the Premier League.

The Verdict
Last Saturday's victory at Stoke was a massive one for Arsenal; in just about the most adverse conditions possible (having seen Aaron Ramsey suffer such a horrific injury, having failed to deal with the long-throw threat of Rory Delap and being thoroughly bullied off the park) Arsene Wenger's side managed to secure victory with 2 late goals. At home, Wenger's side have an excellent 11-1-2 record in the league this season, averaging 2.71 goals per game- that average goes above 3 if you take out the top 6 sides in the league. Burnley, on t'other hand, have a well-documented dreadful away record, even by the standards of this season's Premier League, in which most teams seem to have a case of Awaydayitis- just the 43 goals conceded in 14 away games so far, in which they have collected a grand total of 1 point. Brian Laws has not arrested a slide that started in the winter months, and it's difficult to see how, even if they go with a more circumspect approach than the attacking style which they deployed away at Aston Villa, they can stop Arsenal scoring a few here. Home win

The Bet
You'll not get much better than Blue Square's 1/7 on the home win, therefore have a look at a few other markets. With Nicklas Bendtner fit again, Arsenal now have one of their most important players available again, and Bendtner has to be considered on the anytime scorers market. Arsenal to win to nil should also be considered, given that Burnley aren't big scorers anywhere right now, and will surely adopt a damage limitation strategy. Along those lines, over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet given Arsenal's firepower, but this writer wouldn't go crazy on the number of goals to be scored- with a midweek Champions League game with Porto coming up, don't be surprised if Arsenal settle for perhaps 3 or 4.

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th January

Aye, aye, chappies and chappettes who be following this here blog (get Facebook in Pirate Language, side-splittingly funny). Here's some musings on the weekend's matches:

• West Ham look very tempting at a general 11/10 to beat Blackburn Rovers. Rovers have been utterly honking away from Ewood Park all season, and the Hammers are showing signs that, with their new owners promising oodles of cash for Gianfranco Zola to strenghten his side, they can power themselves clear of the drop zone...
• ...And land someone else in it. Wolves are available to be relegated at 11/8 with Stan James, which looks big for a side largely full of Championship players. And given their recent terrible form, an injury to Darren Bent would see Sunderland plummet from their current 13th position (only 3 points above the drop zone) and current price of 14/1 with Paddy Power
• Some say he played over 140 games for Nottingham Forest. And that to help him sleep at night, instead of counting sheep, he counts pigeons. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and if he's going to keep Burnley in the Premier League, then it will be their home form that is key. And what better way to get your first home win as Burnley manager than at home to an-understrength Chelsea? Expect the Bob Lord Stand faithful to be chanting "Does Wayne Bridge's missus know you're here?". Bet365 go 12/1 on the home win, which seems a bit long considering the Hotpot-Munchers' home record
• Hibernian to beat St Mirren looks good value at a best price of 4/6 with Skybet. The Hibees will be bouncing after beating Celtic away from home in midweek, while St Mirren, who are nowt special away from home anyway, are bound to have one eye on their midweek Co-Op Cup Semi Final

Manchester United v Burnley, Saturday 16th January

My Thoughts

Some say he once threw a bucket of chicken wings at Ivano Bonetti. And that he is terrified of shrubs. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and he's Burnley's new manager.

Anyway, on to Saturday's match at Old Trafford. Burnley travel to Old Trafford winless in their last 9 league games and dreadful away from Turf Moor, with a new man in charge with zero Premier League experience and up against a Manchester United side, who, despite a mid-season crisis which has seen them lose a total of 1 game in the cup, have a home record this season of 8-1-1. Welcome to the Premier League, Brian.

The Verdict
As mentioned previously, Burnley are dreadful away from Turf Moor- their record thus far this season is 0-1-9, and it's extremely difficult to see how that won't be 0-1-10 come 5pm on Saturday. Clarets fans will point to their side's 1-0 triumph in the reverse fixture earlier this season, but it's difficult to see a side which has conceded an average of 3.1 goals away from home being able to contain the likes of Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs, ..erm....Antonio Valencia......that's probably about the sum total of Man Utd's attacking threat right now. Not all hope is lost for Burnley (upfront, Steven Fletcher has adapted well to the Premier League), but even a slightly off-colour Manchester United should claim 3 points.

The Bet
Manchester United are unlikely to be available at a better price than the 1/7 Blue Square are offering, although I suspect it won't be a walkover in terms of the scoreline. For a cheeky correct score prediction, 2-0 Man Utd should be avaliable around about 7/1. Apart from that, I would still expect United to dominate most of the game- over 10 corners should definitely be considered, especially if Darron Gibson plays- just think of all those long-range shots of his picking up deflections or testing Brian Jensen

Burnley v Aston Villa, Saturday 21st November

My Thoughts

After a week of international football, it's back to league business for these two in the 2nd Claret and Blue Derby of the season. Both sides should be realtively fresh going into this one- neither side had many players away on international duty. Burnley's current 10th position in the league is based on their excellent home form (5-0-1), with only Wigan's trip to Turf Moor last month resulting in a home defeat. By the same token, though, their away form is terrible (0-1-5). One aspect of their home record to take into consideration is that they have yet to win at home against a good side in good form- when Everton were defeated 1-0, they were still recovering from their 6-1 destruction at the hands of Arsenal, and the Manchester United side defeated at Turf Moor was some way short of top form. One must also take note of how unfortunate Hull City were to lose 2-0 against Owen Coyle's men, due to a number of questionable refereeing decisions that day. Aston Villa's away form over the last 2 seasons has always been respectable; indeed, many feel that their counter-attacking style is better suited to playing away from Villa Park, and has led to them already clinching away wins at Anfield and St Andrews.

The Verdict
This looks like being one of the more interesting matches of a Premier League weekend which features what will no doubt be edge-of-the-seat thrillers such as Stoke v Portsmouth and Blackburn v Bolton. Villa are actually due an away win- they have not won in their last 4 league away games, and go into this one fresh off the back of stuffing Burnley's Lancashire rivals Bolton 5-1. With Gabriel Agbonlahor rediscovering his goalscoring touch (and up against a defence that has already conceded 25 Premier League goals), this writer fancies Villa to win this one

The Bet
Aston Villa can be backed to win outright at a best price of 5/4 with Skybet. Alternatively, if you fancy backing Gabriel Agbonlahor, he can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 2/1 with Coral, or for a slightly more random anytime scorer, 4 of Villa's 8 Premier League goalscorers this season have been defenders- Stephen Warnock's yet to get in on that action, though- the ex-Blackburn left-back can be backed to score anytime against his old club's biggest local rivals at 12/1 with Skybet

From the Dungeon of Decrepitude...

Emerges Graeme, with this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:

After a humdinger of an international week with more dead rubbers than can be found on Dwight Yorke's bedroom floor (copyright James Richardson), it's a return to the trudge of the Premiership this weekend.

What better exemplifies the word trudge than the combined towns of Blackburn and Burnley. All Northern, grey, with everyone wearing flatcaps and munching on HOVIS BREAD!

In truth, there is nothing grey about these two sides. Part of all the glitz of the Premier League, they both try to play football in an attractive manner.

With Big Sam's Blackburn side searching for a healthy response to their last game which included an Emirates spanking for having the audacity to dare to attack a highly impressive Arsenal side. Couple that with Burnley's nifty start to the season- while they've been capable of great performances (including a 1-0 win over Team Manchester), they've also, at times, been terrible (Tottenham 5 Burnley 0)- this gives us the potential for a pulsating game come noon+1 on Sunday. Official Blog Party in the MCB pub for this game on Sunday. Come on down for a beer and a burger.

Silly 1 game treble tip- all odds from bet365

Blackburn to win @ 8/11

Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20

Under 11 corners @ 10/11

Furthermore, another cheeky 50p punt which may be worth it is Arsenal and Birmingham to draw. Mcleish's men have taken 2 draws at the Emirates from their last 6 games there, and bet365 go 6/1 on the draw

I love James Richardson

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley Prices

Tottenham Hotspur to win outright: best price 4/11 with Paddy Power
Jermain Defoe to score anytime: best price 6/5 Coral
Peter Crouch to score anytime: best price 13/10 Paddy Power

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley, Saturday 26th September

Aleksandr the Meerkat

My Thoughts

Spurs are on something of a roll right now. Two defeats against top 4 sides notwithstanding, they have a 100% record this season, with their latest win coming in the Carling Cup, 5-1 away at Preston, a match in which a Peter Crouch hat-trick very nearly destroyed our very reality. Next to (OK, below) Crouch is Jermain Defoe, the Aleksandr the Meerkat to Crouch's BFG, who has been scoring goals for club and country this season as if it's going out of fashion.

Burnley, meanwhile, have fitted most of the "smaller club promoted to Premier League" stereotypes; hyperactive young manager, attacking football, great home record, backed by a fervent crowd, but dreadful away. 9 points from their opening 3 home games? Perfect. 0 points (and 0 goals) from their opening 3 away games? Room for improvement methinks, particularly after Tuesday's 3-2 Carling Cup defeat at Barnsleh.

The Verdict

Expect to see Harry Redknapp whingeing about his total lack of centre-backs for this game- injuries to Dawson, Woodgate, King (again) and Bassong mean that Vedran Corluka and Tom "Pudding" Huddlestone are likely to play together at centre-back. However, Burnely themselves have injury worries, with striker Martin Paterson likely to be out for some time, and keeper Brian "Tubs" Jensen doubtful. Given Spurs' general good form, and Burnley's lack of away form, expect a home win.

The Bet

Tottenham are likely to be too short to back outright with any real value (apologies, readers- this writer is currently at work and therefore unable to access gambling sites. Prices will follow), but Crouch and Defoe both surely must be considered as anytime scorers. Over 2.5 goals is also worth a look, after these two sides' epic ding-dongs in the Carling Cup last year

Shifty's Season Preview Part 3

Bolton Wanderers

Not entirely different from their Lancashire rivals, last season Bolton were solid, pragmatic, not the prettiest but effective to an extent. It would be wrong to say that Gary Megson divides opinion among Bolton fans: they all hate him. Their style has not evolved from the Sam Allardyce era, yet they have slid down the table. While they should be safe from relegation this season, it's hard to see them making any serious challenge for a top 10 place. However, they have made a couple of decent acquisitions: Sean Davies and Zat Knight are both established Premier League performers, while Paul Robinson and Sam Ricketts both gained praise for their performances as full-backs in what were otherwise hopeless defences last season at West Brom and Hull respectively.

Verdict: The Trotters look set to continue trotting along somewhere between mid-table and 17th. Their only hope of success would appear to be a decent cup run, but given Megson's disdain for the cup competitions last season, this seems unlikely. Ho hum

Burnley are a Premier League team. No, really

Unlike Alan Shearer, one can proclaim Owen Coyle as the messiah without some halfwit immediately correcting you and instead declaring him a very naughty boy. His work on a limited budget and small squad (2 of whom being Steve Caldwell and Graham Alexander, and Brian Jensen is anything but small) could be compared to making however many loaves of bread and fresh haddock being distributed among 5,000. This summer Burnley have adopted a transfer policy seemingly based around recriuting young, talented players with the energy to compliment the guile of the likes of Robbie Blake and industry of Wade Elliott. Last season's cup runs show that Burnley will have nothing to fear against many of the Premier League, and any side who go to Turf Moor not fully on their game can expect to be turned over by a side that will no doubt be backed by a fervent home support, who may well have taken a layer of skin off their hands by now, through constantly rubbing them with glee at the fixture list, which gives them a first home game against Manchester United.

Verdict: On paper, they could really struggle. But then again, we all said that this time last year about Hull and Stoke. A lot will depend not on how their younger players, such as Steven Fletcher, Chris Eagles, Martin Paterson and Brian Easton, adapt, but whether or not the veterans of last season's epic campaign can withstand the rigours of the Premier League. In terms of betting, their games could well be among the most open, high-scoring, in the league. Keep an eye on that over 2.5 goals figure for their games.

CSKA London
Another new season, another new era at Chelsea. This time, Carlo Ancelotti is the man in charge, and while the playing squad has not undergone much revision, expect to see a different style from Ancelotti's side. Gone is the 4-5-1/4-3-3 of Scolari and Hiddink, set to be replaced by a 4-4-2 diamond. How they adapt this style for the Premier League and the Chelsea players will be intriguing to watch, especially considering that, under Ancelotti, AC Milan played this system at about 3mph. Of the 3 new signings, Yuri Zhirkov and Daniel Sturridge look well-equipped to shine when called upon, while this writer wants to find out who Ross Turnbull's agent is. Defensively, any more mistakes and questions will have to be asked about Petr Cech's condition, while Ricardo Carvalho's likely retention is key to their chances. Right-back could be a concern, though: Ancelotti appears not to be totally convinced by the defensive qualities of Jose Bosingwa, while Branislav Ivanovic was completely done by Nani in last weekend's Community Shield.

Verdict: The fixture list is reasonbly kind to Chelsea at the start of the season, and so they can be expected to be near the top early on. It remains to be seen, though, how they will cope without their African contingent when January comes. Expect either the Premier League title, the Champions League title, or Ancelotti to be sacked