Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group B

Much has been written about Argentina under Diego Maradona, but they still arrive in South Africa as one of the contenders for the trophy, despite being widely written off due to some of Maradona's selection decisions. Of the other 3 teams in the group, Nigeria would appear to be Argentina's closest challengers ahead of a dour Greece side and a South Korea side who look a shadow of the side who memorably made the semi-finals in 2002

Argentina
A chaotic qualifying campaign and a somewhat scattergun selection policy were the hallmarks of the beginning of Maradona's stint in charge, but in recent months there seems to be a more settled look to the side, even if some of the selection decisions Maradona has made for his finals squad are nothing short of baffling (the previously unheralded Ariel Garce and Juan Mercier, along with 36-year-old Martin Palermo in; 136-cap Javier Zanetti, Gabriel Milito, Esteban Cambiasso and Lisandro Lopez out). In goals, Mardona's decision to trust AZ Alkmaar rookie Sergio Romero in goals has been an inspired one- he'll be protected by, in Diego's own words, 4 centre-backs (this his reasoning behind leaving out Zanetti)- infront of them will be Javier Mascherano, so while it may not be pretty, expect Argentina not to concede many goals. Going forward, the last person you would expect to see in central midfield would most likely be ex-Manchester United flop/"F***ing superb player" Juan Sebastian Veron- so you'll never guess who Maradona's gone and picked next to Mascherano. Yep, Seba Veron- he hasn't got the legs these days, but can still pass a ball. Upfront, Argentina have a wealth of attacking options- Messi, Aguero (Maradona's son-in-law, by the way), Tevez, Milito, Palermo, Pastore and Lavezzi to name but 7- providing they can work together, Maradona could well become only the 2ndmn, after Franz Beckenbaur, to win the World Cup as player and manager- now that would make for an eventful press conference

Nigeria
The Super Eagles have qualified once again, and seem to have fostered a better team spirit and are better organised under Swedish coach Lars Lagerback. In Vincent Enyeama, they have one of Africa's best goalkeepers, and he has infront of him a strong defence that was the backbone of their progress to the semi-finals of the African Nations Cup earlier this year. Infront of them they have the likes of Dickson Etuhu and John Obi Mikel, who while offering tenacity, do lack creativity, a problem replicated throughout the team- Lagerback's concern won't be with the ability of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins, it will be who will create chances for them. However, as long as they can keep themselves together as a team, they should progress from the group

South Korea
Semi-finalists in 2002, but have been a shadow of that side since then, failing to get out of their group in 2006. Coach Huh Jung-Moo's side contain a handful of survivors from 2002, amongst them 37-year-old goalkeeper Lee Woon-Jae. Going forward, they do have some quality- another 2002 survivor, Park Ji-Sung is one of their "Fab Four" of attacking players, also including Celtic's Ki Sung Yong, Bolton's Lee Chung-Yong and Park Chu-Young of Monaco- and based on their qualifying campaign and subsequent friendlies, scoring goals won't be an issue. However, it is the defence where there are concerns- they haven't had a stable central defensive pairing, and they have shown a worrying fondness for conceding goals at set pieces. If Huh Jung-Moo cannot correct this, then they're going home early

Greece
Was the word in 2004, but has since been replaced by The Bird. Veteran German coach Otto Rehhagel is still in charge and the football is still pretty dreadful- not much has changed since their triumphant showing in 2004, and their less triumphant showing in 2008. Expect them to be robust, physical and a threat from set pieces (watch out South Korea), and don't be surprised if Rehhagel opts for a back 3 (or 5), although one can assume that, even if they manage to make it out of the group, the Greek FA won't exactly be liberal with their bonuses. Panathinaikos youngster Sotiris Ninis has been tipped as a star of the future, and if the defence behind him remains solid, he could create the chances for the likes of Fanis Gekas, Georgios Samaras and Angelos Charisteas (scorer of the winner in the EURO 2004 final) to fire the Greeks into the 2nd round

The bets for Group B:
Argentina to win Group B: best price 5/11 with expekt.com
Nigeria to win 4 points: best price 3/1 with Paddy Power
South Korea top goalscorer Park Chu-Young: best price 5/1 with Betfred
Greece stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 11/4 with sportingbet

Two matches down, two to go...

Here's a couple of more digestible previews for the remaining 2 play-off matches:

Ukraine v Greece

Ukraine's play-off record is horrible: played 6, won 0, drawn 3, lost 3. By all accounts, Saturday's 0-0 was a turgid affair- both teams will know that they will have to sharpen up in attack if they want to qualify. These two actually have previous: they met in qualifying campaigns for EURO 2004 and Germany 2006, with Ukraine having a slight edge. However, Greece's Fanis Gekas will surely not be as profilgate as he was on Saturday (along with Edin Dzeko and Wayne Rooney, he was one of the top scorers during qualifying), and he may just be the man to nick a goal for Greece to take them to South Africa.

Betting: Greece to win outright- best price 4/1 @ Coral

Fanis Gekas anytime scorer- best price 7/2 @ extrabet

Slovenia v Russia

A late goal for Slovenia on Saturday gives them a real chance to have a go at Russia tonight. Slovenia's qualifying record at home was pretty solid- 12 goals scored, only 1 conceded, as they won 4 and drew 1 of 5 qualifiers. They also have a decent record in the play-offs, qualifying on 2 out of 3 attempts in the play-offs. However, this writer looks at Russia and still sees too much individual talent and a strong team (with Guus Hiddink in charge, they're always going to be competitive), and therefore, after also considering the struggles of teams who lose 1st legs, Russia should progress.

Betting: Russia to win outright- best price 13/10 at Stan James

Under 3.5 goals- best price 2/9 at Paddy Power

World Cup Qualifying Play-Offs 2nd Legs, Wednesday 18th November

Preamble

The last remaining World Cup places are up for grabs in Europe tomorrow night, and, as ever, this intrepid writer has had his head buried in stats in order to preview these games for y'all. The play-offs are always tense, dramatic occasions, a chance for relative unknowns to become national heroes (in New Zealand, the government are being lobbied to change the name of the national Westpac Stadium to Rory Fallon Park; in 1997, a young Gianluigi Buffon made his Italy debut in a snowy play-off match in Moscow) and for national heroes to become, er, zeroes. Over the last 2 days, this writer has been furiously analysing previous qualifying matches and play-off results (I've been off work with a broken metatarsal), and come to some interesting conclusions:

• Ukraine have never progressed to an international tournament through the play-offs. Indeed, in 6 matches in 3 play-offs, they have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 3. Their 0-0 draw away in Greece was their first draw away from Ukraine in the play-offs, and even that result came thanks to a questionable decision to rule out a Fanis Gekas goal
• Over the course of the 6, 8 or 10 matches (depending on the qualifying format, there have been either 3, 4 or 5 play-off matches in 1998-2006 (there were none for EURO 2008)), there have been, in 4 of the 5 tournaments, 4 home wins. With Portugal and Russia securing home wins in the 1st legs on Saturday, it would be reasonable to assume 2 home wins tomorrow night
• Ireland have a mountain to climb in France. Of the 5 teams to have previously lost the 1st leg of their tie at home, none have managed to qualify, indeed only Scotland have managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg after losing the 1st leg at home. Ireland's play-off record against European nations is also poor- they have now won none of their last 5 play-off matches, and only scored 6 goals in 5 away qualifying matches. They've also failed to beat France in 3 competitive internationals over the last 12 years
• As a general rule, if you lose the 1st leg, you're out. Over the past 12 years, out of 14 teams who have lost the 1st leg of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify
• 2nd legs tend to be more open than 1st legs. Over 20 1st legs, an average of 2.45 goals were scored per game. However, in the 2nd legs, this increased to 2.7 goals per game
• Despite the previous stat, don't expect goals galore in the Ukraine v Greece match. Their 4 previous competitive internationals have produced a meagre total of just 6 goals. Consider also Ukraine's defence, which only conceded 6 goals throughout the entire qualifying campaign

So there you have some initial stats to ponder, lovingly computed for y'all by this writer. Full previews of the games to follow