Bosnia v Portugal, Wednesday 18th November

My Thoughts

Portugal go into this game with a narrow, 1-0 advantage from Saturday's 1st leg, courtesy of Bruno Alves' goal. For Bosnia, this will be by some margin their biggest ever game as an independent nation. The game has the potential to be open- previous play-off results tell us that 2nd legs tend to feature more goals that 1st legs- an average of 2.7 goals per game in 2nd legs, compared to 2.45 in 1st legs. Along with this, Bosnia's favoured 3-4-1-2 formation features two wing-backs in Senijad Ibricic (rumoured to be attracting interest from Celtic) and Sejad Salihovic whose strengths are going forward as opposed to backward- the flipside of this being that this gives space in advanced wide positions for the likes of Nani to exploit. Bosnia also must do without the suspended midfield pair of Elvir Rahimic and Samir Muratovic, aloing with centre-back Emir Spahic, and the injured Zvjezdan Misimovic, who looks set to be replaced by debutant Harris Medunjanin. Portugal, aside from the injured CR7, travelled to Bosnia with a fully-fit and suspension-free squad.

The Verdict
As was the case with the 1st leg, this is a very tough one to call. The history books do not favour Ciro Blazevic's men: in the last 12 years, of the 14 teams who have lost the 1st legs of their ties, only Holland have gone on to qualify. Bizarrely, of the 3 ties where a team has lost the 1st leg and won the 2nd leg, Scotland have featured in 2 of them. Bosnia must also improve on a defensive record which saw them concede 13 times in 10 qualifying matches- by means of comparison, Portugal only conceded 5. As mentioned in my previous post, the play-off matches usually seem to feature 4 home wins, and an equal number of draws and away wins. Given that Saturday saw 2 home wins, 1 away win and 1 draw, we can expect a similar sequence of results tonight- this writer would be erring to call this match as a draw. Expect a big effort from Bosnia, with Edin Dzeko causing real problems for the Portugal defence, but I ultimately reckon they will fall just short of the final hurdle.

The Bet
The draw can be backed at 12/5 with Ladbrokes. Also, it wouldn't be right if this writer didn't throw a couple of random anytime goalscorers in. In Pepe and Bruno Alves, Portugal have a pair of centre-backs capable of nabbing the odd goal, as shown by Bruno Alves netting the only goal of the game on Saturday. Pepe will probably be thinking to himself "It's my turn now" and can be backed to score anytime at 12/1 with William Hill. Also, how about Harris Medunjanin to mark his international debut with a goal? He can be backed anytime at 11/2 with bet365.

Portugal v Bosnia, Saturday 14th November

My Thoughts

For those of you who perhaps don't follow European football all that closely, you'll probably go into your local bookies on Saturday morning and think "home banker, surely. Portugal are ace and Bosnia are rubbish". Well, allow this writer to enlighten you. Bosnia have actually been good these last 18 months, finishing 2nd in their qualifying group behind Spain, and ahead of Euro 2008 semi-finalists Turkey (more about the woes of semi-finalists failing to qualify next time round later), with Wolfsburg stars Edin Dzeko (pictured) and Zvjezdan Misimovic (it's a good job I don't write these entries in Microsoft Word, otherwise the spellchecker would have just exploded) key to a qualifying campaign which saw them score (and concede) more goals than any of the other sides in the play-offs. Portugal, on the other hand, are not quite the force they were not so long ago. The stars of their World Youth Cup-winning side of the early 90s have long gone, and beleagured coach Carlos Queiroz has found that the likes of Simao, Raul Meireles and Helder Postiga are simply not of the same standard as Figo, Rui Costa and Fernando Couto. Add to that the absence of their one genuine world-class player, Cristiano Ronaldo, through an ankle injury, and one has good reason to suspect this won't be an easy tie for Portugal. England in 1994. Sweden in 1998. Holland in 2002. Turkey in 2006. Will Portugal fail to qualify for the 2010 World Cup, having made it to the semi-finals of the previous one?

The Verdict

This is a tough one to call. Both teams will surely have one eye on Wednesday's 2nd leg in Zenica, especially the 9 Bosnia players (I'll refrain from calling them Bosnians- let's not get into that debate) who are 1 yellow card away from missing that match. But hey, all 22 starting players for both sides, plus 14 subs, will be 2 yellow cards away from missing the match, so Bosnia coach Ciro Blazevic (who is 74 years old, and once ran for the Croatian presidency. Not of the FA, of the country) may not wish to dwell on that too much. The main reason Portugal are in the play-offs is because of the absolute pig's ear they made of their early qualifying fixtures- 0-0 draws at home to Albania and Sweden, and a 3-2 loss at home to Denmark. Despite winning their last 2 home games fairly comfortably, they are far from invincible at home. Bosnia's away form (won 3, lost 2 against Spain and Turkey) is respectable enough and, as already mentioned, they are more than capable of finding the net (provided this relatively inexperienced team does not freeze), even against an improving Portuguese backline. However, stopping them going in at the other end is likely to be the big problem for Blazevic's men and, even without Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal should still have enough quality to take a narrow lead into Wednesday's 2nd leg.

The Bet

There's not much value in Portugal outright at a general 1/2, but do take it if you feel that Bosnia will indeed freeze. Given that both sides boast considerable attacking prowess (Dzeko's presence on the Balon D'Or shortlist is testament to that), it might be worthwhile considering over 2.5 goals, available at 5/6 with Paddy Power