Sunday 27 April 2014

If There's A New Way, I'll Be The First In Line. But It Had Better Work This Time

A follow-up to my preview of a few of the World Cup Golden Boot contenders (A follow-up! I've started a feature on here and am actually continuing with it!) as we look at a few more likely contenders:

Neymar (best odds 14/1 general)
The star man for the hosts, despite being just 22 he already has an impressive record for the Selecao of 33 goals in 48 appearances (including the Golden Ball award for Best Player at last summer's Confederations Cup). Likely to be deployed by Luiz Felipe Scolari initially from the left, with creative license to move infield, in a not dis-similar manner to the previously discussed Cristiano Ronaldo, a generous group should give Neymar opportunities to get at least 2 or 3 goals under his belt before the really serious business starts (even if Ross County's Yann Songo'o makes it into the Cameroon squad. 2 factors that work against Neymar, though, are his club form at Barcelona and the lack of other real stars among his team-mates. Firstly, while a record of 15 goals in 40 games is reasonable, it's difficult to look on his 1st season as a complete success- at times he appears to have upset the balance of what was an exceptionally well-oiled machine- at times, it's been difficult to justify his inclusion ahead of Alexis Sanchez (more on him later) and Pedro. As for the rest of the Brazil team, how much chances will the likes of Hulk, Fred & Jo really create for him? Brazil, though, should go far enough into the tournament for him to be among the leading Golden Boot contenders, though, and his price of 14/1 will only shorten as the tournament goes on

Karim Benzema (40/1 with Bet Victor)
Now here's an interesting contender. A true Number 9 hitting prime goalscoring form for a much-fancied outsider with a winnable group, Benzema has to an extent flown under the radar until recently- his price of 40/1 has shortened in the last few months from 66/1- indeed, some bookmakers have him as short as 20/1. Operating in a more central role than many that have been looked at so far, a strong supporting cast featuring the brilliance on the wing of Franck Ribery, the guile and passing range of Yohan Cabaye, the brute force, power and drive of Paul Pogba and the wildcard Antoine Griezmann should create plenty of chances for Benzema, who possesses all the qualities one would desire of a centre-forward. Opening games against Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras should see Benzema rack up at least 2 or 3 goals early on in the tournament- with 6 goals being the average number being scored by the Golden Boot winner in the 8 tournaments where the last 4 play a total of 7 games, this should bring Benzema right into contention for the individual prize. If his team are good enough to compete for the teams' ultimate prize, Benzema could very well take the Golden Boot

Tuesday 22 April 2014

The First of What Will Hopefully Be Many But Probably End Up About Three

Well then. We're rapidly approaching the World Cup (June 12th is the big date), and in the runup I intend to put a few entries on here about all manner of World Cup related patter. For tonight's musing, let's have a look at the main individual trinket on offer in Brazil, the Golden Boot.

What History Tells Us
Almost exclusively throughout its history, the Golden Boot has been won by either a well-known, established, experienced centre-forward (e.g. Miroslav Klose in 2006, Ronaldo in 2002, Gerd Muller in 1974) or a breakout superstar from relative obscurity (e.g Thomas Muller in 2010, Davor Suker in 1998, Salvatore Schillaci in 1990). With the exceptions of Muller in 2010 and Hristo Stoichkov in 1994, the winners could also all legitimately be described as out-and-out centre-forwards operating in traditional Number 9 territory. 5 Brazilians (Garrincha & Vava shared the award in 1962), 3 Germans (Gerd & Thomas Muller, along with Miroslav Klose in 2006), 2 Italians (Schillaci & Paolo Rossi in 1982) and 2 Argentinians have won the Golden Boot, a spread that bears a passing resemblance to the spread of teams who have won the World Cup, although only 4 World Cup winning teams (Brazil in 2002 the most recent) have also had the Golden Boot winner among their ranks. Having said that, only joint-winner Oleg Salenko in 1994 has won the award playing for a team who failed to make it beyond the 1st round of the tournament.

This Year's Contenders
With all that in mid, let's have a look at a few of the main contenders for the Golden Boot this summer:

Lionel Messi (best odds: 9/1 with Coral)
Despite not having the best season domestically, he has to be a serious contender, even with lingering doubts over his fitness after missing 2 months earlier this season. Argentina's group is a very accommodating one, with Switzerland or Ecuador their most likely Round of 16 opponents- opportunities to score shouldn't be in short supply. On the other hand, this could work against Messi & Argentina- no disrespect to Iran (with Carlos Queiroz in charge) & Nigeria (bundles of talent but a complete mess organisationally), but it's not difficult to imagine both adopting a "damage limitiation" mindset and seeking purely to deny Argentina. Given those aforementioned fitness concerns (and bear in mind he's not a pure centre-forward), it's also plausible that Messi could be used sparingly in the early stages of the tournament (particularly if Argentina qualify for Round 2 with a game to spare).  Definitely to be considered if you're willing to back him at as short as 9/1

Cristiano Ronaldo (14/1 general)
Likely to start from the left for Portugal with some sort of centre-forward (possibly Hugo Almeida) in a more conventional Number 9/placeholder role. Don't expect him to have to do much defensive work, either- he'll remain high up the pitch, with Paulo Bento looking to exploit him as the most devastatingly brilliant counter-attacker in the world. He'll have to carry the team a lot, though- this is far from an outstanding Portugal side, and what may ultimately stop him from winning the Golden Boot is that Portugal simply won't go far enough into the tournament. Avoid

Romelu Lukaku (33/1 general)
Now here's a prospect. Having a great season at club level (without an energy-sapping European campaign) with his future wide open leading the line for a much-fancied dark horse, Romelu Lukaku could make a real name for himself in Brazil. Belgium have a winnable group, and will fancy themselves to at least trouble whoever emerges from Group G as their 2nd Round opponent. A supporting cast of Hazard, De Bruyne, Mirallas & Witsel amongst others should create plenty of chances for Lukaku. Definitely one to watch, at decent each-way money too

Miroslav Klose (50/1 Spreadex)
It's what he does. Still playing regularly for Lazio, and likely to have as good a supporting cast as anyone (Muller, Reus, Podolski & Kroos won't all start. Draxler may not even make the squad), Klose simply cannot be discounted, even at 35 (he turns 36 3 days before the tournament starts). Only Ronaldo has more World Cup finals goals, and only Gerd Muller has as many goals for Germany

I'll run through a few more names in the coming weeks

Monday 7 April 2014

When They're Playing In Your Town

Evening, y'all. It's been a while and all that, but here's a new entry from me. Various stuff you'd expect to see and some random stuff too

Good Old Tipping
Let's start with a look at this week's Champions League quarter-final 2nd legs, beginning with Bayern Munchen v Manchester United. Firstly, it's probably best to disregard the respective results of both teams at the weekend- both made wholesale changes to their starting XIs to what they're likely to field on Wednesday (plus the intricate interplay between MUFC's playmakers Juan Mata & Shinji Kagawa will most likely be shelved in favour of a contain & counter approach). Make no mistake, though- in the 1st leg United got at Bayern with an approach that, while not exactly expansive, was effective to a certain extent. Witness also Pep Guardiola's tetchy and frankly bizarre exchange with Guardian journalist Jamie Jackson in the post match press conference. One has to wonder, though, if Bayern will now find an extra gear to shift into- even with Javi Martinez & Bastian Schweinsteiger missing through suspension, replacements of the quality of Dante & Mario Gotze should mean they won't be too sorely missed. United can trouble Bayern, even if qualification may be beyond them. The bet here methinks in Both Teams to Score at 11/10 general. Elsewhere, Atletico Madrid & Barcelona are also tied at 1-1 after the 1st leg of their tie. These two have been extremely closely matched in their 4 meetings so far, with all 4 ending in draws (a 1-1 and an 0-0 at both the Vicente Calderon and the Camp Nou). Another low-scoring match looks on the cards here, with under 2.5 goals being the call at 4/5 general

A Lottery That's Actually Not A Lottery
The Grand National on Saturday was fun, wasn't it? I certainly thought so, although that's hardly surprising when you consider that, for the 2nd year running, I had picked the winner. How do I do it? Simple, really- I treat it in much the same way as any other horse race, doing my research, studying form and the like. It's important to remember when dealing with the National, though, that at over 4 miles, it's considerably longer than almost all of the races the horses will have competed, therefore form alone isn't always beneficial. For example, my selection of Pineau de Re had competed in a 3 mile race at Cheltenham last month and finished 3rd. Not much, on its own, but the horse actually finished extremely strongly, hinting at there being plenty more stamina in his legs, as well as the discipline to stay in the chasing pack early on, before showing a turn in pace near the end- none of these qualities were demonstrated in particular abundance by any of the supposed favourites such as Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude. I'll try and remember and post this in the run up to next year's race

Myth Debunking
Time for me to clear something up. It seems a few of you fell for my Facebook April Fool's Day declaration of support for the No campaign. Let me assure you that I shall be doing no such thing- I'll be keeping my opinion between me and the ballot box

And Finally....
I only caught extra-time and the pre-match reports of trouble in the Grassmarket, but yesterday's Ramsdens Cup Final brought back memories of my time at the League Cup Final with some Aberdeen fans last month. Similar to yesterday, the match itself was a fairly turgid affair, yet the clearly nervous 40,000 Aberdeen fans relentless continued to back their side, with a grand total of 0 arrests, in compete contrast to yesterday. There's a mental strength about this Aberdeen side that's getting them some big results where previously they would fail. It will be fascinating to monitor their progress in the next few years, especially as they will almost certainly be embarking on a Europa League campaign next season



"YES! YES! YES"!