Monday 7 May 2012

Houston, we have a problem

So, Dundee United manager Peter Houston has come out this week and said that, without Rangers in the SPL, his club stand to lose in the region of £600,000. Let's rip that statement to shreds

Firstly, an SPL next season without Rangers would see United's city rivals, Dundee, admitted to the SPL in their place as 1st Division runners-up (although their final points tally was closer to bottom-placed Queen of the South than winners Ross County. Sorry folks, I couldn't resist). Games against Dundee at Tannadice would be guaranteed sell-outs (notably, neither of Rangers' 2 trips to Tannadice this season sold out) and would most likely be deemed "premium" fixtures, i.e. highest bracket of ticket and hospitality prices (another bugbear of this writer, but we'll leave that for another day). So loss of ticket revenue isn't going to be an issue. The issue of a loss of TV revenue is probably weighing on Houston's mind, given that 3 of Dundee United's 4 league games v Rangers were televised by Sky or ESPN, however it's a reasonable assumption to make that a Dundee derby will be an attractive proposition for live TV, and much as there has been some hand-wringing over Sky's future coverage of the SPL, ESPN, who show just as many matches, have a deal until 2017. And, let's face it, if Rangers start next season in Division 3, then by the time that deal is up for renewal, there's a good chance the Govan side will be back in the SPL.

Clubs like Dundee United would also benefit on the park. Houston would probably admit that, in ordinary circumstances, Rangers would almost certainly be plotting moves this summer for the likes of Johnny Russell and Gary Mackay Steven, and would be able to blow his side out of the water in financial terms, plus European football. This will now no longer be the case, thereby giving Houston more opportunity to build a stronger team around these talented players. This should, in theory, mean that by the time Rangers rise through the SFL and are back in the SPL (as will most likely happen), the rest of the league should be much stronger, which will benefit the whole of Scottish football.

So the short-term and long-term cases are there to see. What also has to be taken into account is the view of the supporters. The results of the recent SPL fan survey show that supporters are by and large unsympathetic to the idea of a Newco Rangers playing in the SPL, and rightly so. The results also indicate that there would be a significant drop in the already-diminishing crowds at SPL games. The chairmen, who will ultimately make the final decision, cannot ignore this. They may, and usually do, point at the TV deals as being a source of finance, but it's worth remembering exactly who Sky, ESPN and the BBC (who, should Sky pull out, would surely fancy boosting their diminishing live sports rights portfolio) televise football for: the supporters.

We can but hope for some sense and sensibility from the SPL chairmen when they (eventually) make their decision. We can but hope