Weekend Betting, Saturday 26th February

Howdy folks. Here are a few tips for the weekend for you to either:
a) spend what little is left of your last pay cheque on
b) start spending your new pay cheque on

• 'Tis the Carling Cup Final on Sunday. Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to win the trophy, although a defence as stodgy as Birmingham's could frustrate them for some time if Arsenal don't score early, therefore I'm thinking about avoiding Betfred's 4/7 on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes. I'm more tempted to place a sizeable sum on Arsenal Draw No Bet at 2/9 with Bwin, or the 3/10 on Arsenal to win the trophy at 3/10 with Skybet
• A league I know a fair bit about, having followed Ross County through its good, bad and mostly ugly travails, is the Scottish 1st Division, and there are a few interesting bets to be had today. One of the oldest footballing cliches is that the league table never lies. However, it does in the 1st Division this season, thanks to Dundee's 25 point deduction. Without it, they would be 6 points clear at the top of the league, which would be a fair reflection of their status as the best team in the league. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season, and hence are well worth backing at a general 4/7 to beat a Morton side with an away record of 1-4-5. Also worth backing in the 1st division are Falkirk to beat Cowdenbeath at a general 4/11. A more speculative punt in the same division comes at Stark's Park, where the first signs of the widely-expected Raith collapse have appeared, losing 3 of their last 5. John McGlynn's side are without a number of players due to injury for the visit of an improving Stirling Albion. If you're feeling particularly brave, Stirling can be backed to win at a general 15/2, otherwise the Double Chance Draw/Stirling is available at a general 12/5

RIP DEAN RICHARDS

AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February

My Thoughts

This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.

The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.

The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals