Been a while since I posted own on here, so time to address that with some general musings. Some of the usual betting tips will appear again soon enough
Manchester United and referees
Now, regular (and irregular) readers will know of my leanings, but bear with me. Fulham should have had a penalty at Old Trafford last night, no-one's going to argue that one. But likewise, think back to the penalty Newcastle got at Old Trafford earlier this season. It sounds cliched, but these things generally do even themselves out over a season
Some stats have also emerged regarding the number of penalties (most in the league) and yellow cards (fewest in the league) awarded to Man Utd in recent weeks. There is a perfectly logical explanation for both of these, and it's nothing to do with referees favouring Man Utd (indeed, if you want to talk about a Premier League referee favouring a particular team, look at Chelsea's results in games refereed by Martin Atkinson). Quite simply, United typically spend more of the game in possession and attacking their opponents. In order to be awarded a penalty, you obviously need to be in possession of the ball in your opponents' penalty area- the more often you're in the opposition box, the more opportunities you're likely to get for them to foul you.
Similarly, in order for you to pick up a yellow card, generally you need for your opponent to be in possession of the ball. The less time your opponent has the ball, the fewer chances you're likely to have to foul them
Andre Villas-Boas to Inter? Really?
I must admit that, after his totally undeserved and unjustified sacking from Chelsea, I was baffled to hear media reports linking Andre Villas-Boas with perennial basket case Internazionale. Some forensic analysis reveals that the two sides have remarkably similar problems, so much so it's actually hilarious (well, to me anyway) to go through both sides:
Goalkeeper who was outstanding but now a complete liability: Check (Julio Cesar and Cech)
Brazilian centre-back prone to wandering: Check (Lucio and David Luiz)
Veteran warhorse of a cantankerous old bastard alongside: Check (Samuel and Terry)
Young, highly replacements for them who are actually useless: Check (Ranocchia and Cahill)
Portuguese-speaking adventurous full-back affected by loss of form and injury: Check (Maicon and Bosingwa/Ferreira)
Uber-talented but misfiring, ill-fitting, blond, Spanish-speaking centre-forward: Check (Forlan and Torres)
Ageing midfield with not-totally-convincing replacements: Check
A squad that had shown its resistance and unsuitability to a high-intensity style and high defensive line: Check
Megalomaniacal owner with a tendency to hire and fire: Check (Moratti and Abramovich)
After being unable to solve this set of problems at 1 club, why did people expect AVB to be able/willing to do it again somewhere else?
Mon the Staggies
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Monday, 13 February 2012
Rangers in Administration
So, the announcement that has shocked everyone and no-one- Rangers have lodged their intention to go into administration. What does this mean, I hear you ask?
Firstly, the club, assuming administration (i.e the size of their liabilities (debts) exceed the value of their assets) is entered within the next 10 days, will incur an automatic 10 point penalty from the SPL (which, in the current table, would leave them still in 2nd place, 5 points ahead of Motherwell but 14 behind Celtic) along with a player registration embargo (better get Daniel Cousin's paperwork signed off quickly, lads). The club will then be placed in the control of an administrator (most likely appointed by either HMRC or their bank), whose task will be to return the club to a position where it can trade normally. This would be achieved by a combination of cost-cutting, sale of assets and negoitating more lenient terms with creditors- this is known as a Company Voluntary Agreement.
A Company Voluntary Agreement (CVA) is where the club would agree with the creditor to write off the debt in return for paying off an agreed percentage of the debt. However, any CVA would require HMRC to approve, as a CVA can only be passed if approved by 75% or more of the creditors by value. A recent example of a CVA being approved would be Dundee FC, who managed to obtain a CVA paying just 6p in the pound- again, the major creditor was HMRC. That's not to say that a CVA will even be proposed, never mind accepted. In order for a CVA to be accepted, all concerned (the directors, administrator and creditors) need to be convinced that the business can be made viable and that the mistakes that led the business to insolvency have been learned, and will not be repeated.
While an agreement with creditors will be rigorously pursued, firstly over the next 10 days by the existing directors, then potentially by an administrator, there will no doubt be considerable emphasis placed on cost-cutting and the potential sale of assets. Expect to see a significant reduction in wage costs at Ibrox, with many non-playing personnel either being made redundant (with possibly an informal understanfing that, should the club return to a financially stable position, they be rehired) or asked to take a pay cut. The sale of players is a more complicated matter, with the transfer window now being shut for most European clubs- Sweden, Norway and Russia being the exceptions, and any prospect of raising significant transfer fees from there deemed slim (big-spending Anzhi Machachkala shop at more luxury boutiques), likewise the Americas. In any case, Rangers have a relatively small squad, containing few players who could be expected to command a transfer fee sizeable enough to make a real difference to the financial position.
One possible idea could be to arrange for the sales of players to go through at the end of the season when the transfer window reopens with Rangers receiving the money upfront while keeping the player until the summer. However, looking again at the recent example of Dundee being in a similar position, and trying to do the same thing when selling Leigh Griffiths to Wolves, the SPL and SFA are unlikely to be too keen on the club doing this- it could be seen to give the club an unfair advantage by having both the player and the monies for his transfer at the same time.
As for the rest of Scottish football, while there will no doubt be much Schadenfreude from the supporters (some of it understandable), this is not necessarily a good day for Scottish football. For instance, Dundee United (their share of the gate receipts from their recent Scottish Cup win at Ibrox) and Hearts (the final instalment of the Lee Wallace transfer fee) are both owed sums in the region of £100,000 by Rangers. What also should be concerning is that they are unable to afford to sign the cream of the talent from the rest of the SPL, with English Championship clubs now able to outbid them in terms of transfer fees and wages, therefore denying the players the possibility of Champions League (or, more likely, Europa League) football, and denying Celtic any real competition domestically. One also has to wonder about the commercial appeal of an SPL deprived of a competitive Rangers team, although none of these reasons should in any way prevent the relevant authorities (HMRC, SPL, SFA, administrators and other creditors) for seeking a favourable resolution, whatever the consequences. Contrary to the adverts, tax appears to be taxing in this case
Firstly, the club, assuming administration (i.e the size of their liabilities (debts) exceed the value of their assets) is entered within the next 10 days, will incur an automatic 10 point penalty from the SPL (which, in the current table, would leave them still in 2nd place, 5 points ahead of Motherwell but 14 behind Celtic) along with a player registration embargo (better get Daniel Cousin's paperwork signed off quickly, lads). The club will then be placed in the control of an administrator (most likely appointed by either HMRC or their bank), whose task will be to return the club to a position where it can trade normally. This would be achieved by a combination of cost-cutting, sale of assets and negoitating more lenient terms with creditors- this is known as a Company Voluntary Agreement.
A Company Voluntary Agreement (CVA) is where the club would agree with the creditor to write off the debt in return for paying off an agreed percentage of the debt. However, any CVA would require HMRC to approve, as a CVA can only be passed if approved by 75% or more of the creditors by value. A recent example of a CVA being approved would be Dundee FC, who managed to obtain a CVA paying just 6p in the pound- again, the major creditor was HMRC. That's not to say that a CVA will even be proposed, never mind accepted. In order for a CVA to be accepted, all concerned (the directors, administrator and creditors) need to be convinced that the business can be made viable and that the mistakes that led the business to insolvency have been learned, and will not be repeated.
While an agreement with creditors will be rigorously pursued, firstly over the next 10 days by the existing directors, then potentially by an administrator, there will no doubt be considerable emphasis placed on cost-cutting and the potential sale of assets. Expect to see a significant reduction in wage costs at Ibrox, with many non-playing personnel either being made redundant (with possibly an informal understanfing that, should the club return to a financially stable position, they be rehired) or asked to take a pay cut. The sale of players is a more complicated matter, with the transfer window now being shut for most European clubs- Sweden, Norway and Russia being the exceptions, and any prospect of raising significant transfer fees from there deemed slim (big-spending Anzhi Machachkala shop at more luxury boutiques), likewise the Americas. In any case, Rangers have a relatively small squad, containing few players who could be expected to command a transfer fee sizeable enough to make a real difference to the financial position.
One possible idea could be to arrange for the sales of players to go through at the end of the season when the transfer window reopens with Rangers receiving the money upfront while keeping the player until the summer. However, looking again at the recent example of Dundee being in a similar position, and trying to do the same thing when selling Leigh Griffiths to Wolves, the SPL and SFA are unlikely to be too keen on the club doing this- it could be seen to give the club an unfair advantage by having both the player and the monies for his transfer at the same time.
As for the rest of Scottish football, while there will no doubt be much Schadenfreude from the supporters (some of it understandable), this is not necessarily a good day for Scottish football. For instance, Dundee United (their share of the gate receipts from their recent Scottish Cup win at Ibrox) and Hearts (the final instalment of the Lee Wallace transfer fee) are both owed sums in the region of £100,000 by Rangers. What also should be concerning is that they are unable to afford to sign the cream of the talent from the rest of the SPL, with English Championship clubs now able to outbid them in terms of transfer fees and wages, therefore denying the players the possibility of Champions League (or, more likely, Europa League) football, and denying Celtic any real competition domestically. One also has to wonder about the commercial appeal of an SPL deprived of a competitive Rangers team, although none of these reasons should in any way prevent the relevant authorities (HMRC, SPL, SFA, administrators and other creditors) for seeking a favourable resolution, whatever the consequences. Contrary to the adverts, tax appears to be taxing in this case
Wednesday, 25 January 2012
The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet
26th March 2010, it has been far too long.
Thought I'd blast out some words to inform you all of the current craze sweeping through my work.
By “craze” I actually mean myself and Scot talking over a pint about how to finally get a bloody coupon up.
Previously the pass at work has looked like this on a Saturday. Usually getting bust by 3pm as I forgot to check the times of the kick-offs before placing the bets hastily while late for work on a Saturday morning.
Thought I'd blast out some words to inform you all of the current craze sweeping through my work.
By “craze” I actually mean myself and Scot talking over a pint about how to finally get a bloody coupon up.
Previously the pass at work has looked like this on a Saturday. Usually getting bust by 3pm as I forgot to check the times of the kick-offs before placing the bets hastily while late for work on a Saturday morning.
The idea is, instead of doing a long accumulator with a few dead certs and a couple of more risky and lucrative bets we change our approach and do a continuous accumulator. Start of with a £10, and just do one (odds on if you fell scared) bet a day, constantly increasing your stake.
Set a target out, for me it’s going to be £100. Then, do it all over again. I’ve searched around on the internet for anyone doing this and stumbled across this wee gem of a website. It explains the process far more eloquently and soberly than I can.
http://theaccumulator.co.uk/index.html
So, starting from Tuesday, 24th January. I will adopting this process of gambling. I’ll only ever risk £10 and if it comes of it is a more enjoyable and rewarding system off saving money than doing something stupid and putting your money into an ISA.
Rest assured if this system works I’ll write back and let you know.
In the meantime, here is a terrible but lucrative bet for this midweek.
1) I fancy Motherwell for 3rd spot in the SPL this season. If their stadium doesn’t catch fire I think they will be strong enough to pump Dunfermline.
4/6
2) Leviadiakos are 19/1 to beat Panathinaikos on the 25th. That has to be worth a quid!
3) Andy Carrol, anytime goalscorer against Manchester City on Wednesday night. No, on second thoughts just ignore that one.
Have fun and enjoy losing your money,
All the best and good betting!
Set a target out, for me it’s going to be £100. Then, do it all over again. I’ve searched around on the internet for anyone doing this and stumbled across this wee gem of a website. It explains the process far more eloquently and soberly than I can.
http://theaccumulator.co.uk/index.html
So, starting from Tuesday, 24th January. I will adopting this process of gambling. I’ll only ever risk £10 and if it comes of it is a more enjoyable and rewarding system off saving money than doing something stupid and putting your money into an ISA.
Rest assured if this system works I’ll write back and let you know.
In the meantime, here is a terrible but lucrative bet for this midweek.
1) I fancy Motherwell for 3rd spot in the SPL this season. If their stadium doesn’t catch fire I think they will be strong enough to pump Dunfermline.
4/6
2) Leviadiakos are 19/1 to beat Panathinaikos on the 25th. That has to be worth a quid!
3) Andy Carrol, anytime goalscorer against Manchester City on Wednesday night. No, on second thoughts just ignore that one.
Have fun and enjoy losing your money,
All the best and good betting!
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Weekend Betting, Saturday 21st January
Big weekend of soccer matches coming up (although, to be honest, they're all going to be big now. We're getting towards the part of the season where the football actually gets good), let's have a look at what we can have a punt on:
- Newcastle away at Fulham firstly. The Geordies are currently shorn of 2 key men in Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba, along with new number 9 Papiss Demba Cisse. However, despite an arguably poor performance they still had more than enough to see of QPR last weekend. Fulham are wildly inconsistent this season, and were extremely poor last time out away at Blackburn. An improvement at home will be hoped for, but Newcastle are well worth backing, with 3/1 generally available
- Stoke at home to West Brom has home win written all over it. West Brom's early-mid season form has tailed off badly, with Woy Hodgson's side winless in the league since early December and facing a Stoke side against whom they have a horrible recent record- 2 draws and 7 defeats for West Brom in their last 9 meetings. With the Europa League put to bed until the middle of next month, Stoke have recovered their league form, and are available at 11/10 to triumph with Hills. Get on that if you know what's good for you
- As regular readers will know, I like a bit of trend-spotting. I like to find a reliable bet with good returns and stick it on most weeks. Last season, that was backing Norwich to win most games, which itself replaced Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. This season has yet to produce such a bet, apart from, well..er...Norwich again. The on-form Canaries are available at 5/1 to pull off a win against a slightly unconvincing Chelsea, shorn currently of Didier Drogba. They are not, though, without a goal threat, with Juan Mata adapting well to English football. He's 2/1 to score anytime today against a Norwich defence that has ye to keep a clean sheet this season
- Outside the Premier League, there are a plethora of teams at backable odds today, among them Barnsley, Birmingham, Bournemouth and Carlisle
Tuck in
Thursday, 5 January 2012
Weekend Betting, Saturday 7th January
Into 2012 we go, and it's FA Cup 3rd Round (and Scottish Cup 4th Round) weekend. Plenty of opportunities for shocks, they tell us. Plenty of opportunity for betting, I tell you. Here are some pointers:
- There's a growing trend towards making wholesale changes for the FA Cup, particularly among the Premier League clubs (nobody in the SPL has a big enough squad to make wholesale changes and still field a strong line-up). With that in mind, it's worthwhile waiting to see teamsheets before backing or opposing certain teams. 2 fixtures that immediately come to mind regarding this are Barnsley v Swansea and Norwich v Burnley. In both matches, if both teams were at full-strength, then Swansea (6/4) and Norwich (18/19) should both prevail fairly comfortably, but both sides are likely to prioritise their Premier League campaigns, and could send out much-changed sides, giving an opportunity to the Championship clubs
- In-form lower league club at home to out-of-form Premier League club? Those sound like the conditions required for a cup shock. 2 prime examples of where these conditions apply are at MK Dons (7/4) and Swindon (21/10), who host misfiring QPR and Wigan respectively. Those prices will become even more appealing should the visiting sides make changes, as highlighted above. Cardiff (4/1) are also well worth a punt when they travel to West Brom
- There are some ties, though, that should surely merit comfortable wins for the favourites, and could therefore form part of a reasonably safe accumulator, namely Everton, Fulham, Sheffield United and Tottenham
- In the Scottish Cup, a similar coupon can be put together: back Hearts, Motherwell, Partick and St Johnstone to get the job done on Saturday. Shock-wise, if you're feeling really adventurous, then have a wee look at Arbroath v Rangers. Arbroath are going well in the 2nd Division and are unbeaten at home this season- Rangers travel to Gayfield without a number of key players, and with uncertainty surrounding the future of striker Nikica Jelavic, their attacking edge has been blunted of late. The draw is available at 13/2
Friday, 2 December 2011
FIFPRO World XI Shortlist
Evening folks.
So, that FIFPRO World XI Shortlist, eh? This writer is of the opinion that it's an absolute joke. There are some players on the list who simply should not be there for 2011, while there are some glaring omissions. So many glaring omissions, in fact, that I reckon you could put together a pretty decent team out of them. Here goes:
GK: David De Gea (Man Utd, Spain U21)
RB: Maxi Pereira (Benfica, Uruguay)
CB: Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
CB: Adil Rami (Valencia, France)
LB: Fabio Coentrao (Real Madrid, Portugal)
DM: Diego Perez (Bologna, Uruguay)
CM: Toni Kroos (Bayern Munchen, Germany)
AMR: Mario Gotze (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
AML: Ezequiel Lavezzi (Napoli, Argentina)
AMC: Marek Hamsik (Napoli, Slovakia)
ST: Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, Argentina)
Pretty strong, eh? Additionally, this line-up, unlike most of these "fantasy teams" would actually work as a team. The addition of Diego Perez as the midfield destroyer would offer freedom to both full-backs, who are extremely adventurous, to roam forward. The attacking wide players, Gotze and Lavezzi, are interchangeable, and swapping them would add even more creativity to a talented attacking central midfield (where Kroos and Hamsik are also interchangeable, offering different styles of support to Higuain), and also create even more space in attacking wide positions for Maxi and Coentrao. There's a pretty handy collection of subs available, too:
GK: Justo Villar (Valladolid and Paraguay)
DFs: Diego Lugano (Paris S-G and Uruguay), Alvaro Pereira (Porto and Uruguay)
MFs: Nuri Sahin (Real Madrid and Turkey), Luka Modric (Tottenham and Croatia), Javier Mascherano (Barcelona, Argentina), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, Chile)
STs: Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona, Chile), Antonio Di Natale (Udinese, Italy), Pedro (Barcelona, Spain)
So, that FIFPRO World XI Shortlist, eh? This writer is of the opinion that it's an absolute joke. There are some players on the list who simply should not be there for 2011, while there are some glaring omissions. So many glaring omissions, in fact, that I reckon you could put together a pretty decent team out of them. Here goes:
GK: David De Gea (Man Utd, Spain U21)
RB: Maxi Pereira (Benfica, Uruguay)
CB: Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
CB: Adil Rami (Valencia, France)
LB: Fabio Coentrao (Real Madrid, Portugal)
DM: Diego Perez (Bologna, Uruguay)
CM: Toni Kroos (Bayern Munchen, Germany)
AMR: Mario Gotze (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
AML: Ezequiel Lavezzi (Napoli, Argentina)
AMC: Marek Hamsik (Napoli, Slovakia)
ST: Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, Argentina)
Pretty strong, eh? Additionally, this line-up, unlike most of these "fantasy teams" would actually work as a team. The addition of Diego Perez as the midfield destroyer would offer freedom to both full-backs, who are extremely adventurous, to roam forward. The attacking wide players, Gotze and Lavezzi, are interchangeable, and swapping them would add even more creativity to a talented attacking central midfield (where Kroos and Hamsik are also interchangeable, offering different styles of support to Higuain), and also create even more space in attacking wide positions for Maxi and Coentrao. There's a pretty handy collection of subs available, too:
GK: Justo Villar (Valladolid and Paraguay)
DFs: Diego Lugano (Paris S-G and Uruguay), Alvaro Pereira (Porto and Uruguay)
MFs: Nuri Sahin (Real Madrid and Turkey), Luka Modric (Tottenham and Croatia), Javier Mascherano (Barcelona, Argentina), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, Chile)
STs: Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona, Chile), Antonio Di Natale (Udinese, Italy), Pedro (Barcelona, Spain)
Sunday, 21 August 2011
I'm Still Here!
Ahoy sailors! Thought I'd better post an article-type on this here blog of mine (it's been a while and all that) about the soccer, eh? So here are some musings from yesterday's action:
- Car Crash FC (aka Arsenal) had a bit of a disaster yesterday, and the injury to Laurent Koscielny has heightened calls for Arsene Wenger to sign another central defender. Among the names suggested has been Gary Cahill, however there must be doubts about Cahill's ability to fit into Arsenal's playing style, however good he may be aerially. The clearest example of this would be Cahill's pass completion stats from Bolton's 4-0 opening day win at QPR, in which Cahill succesfully completed only 28 of 39 passes (71.79%), which pales into comparison Koscielny's stats from Arsenal's 0-0 draw at Newcastle of 50 of 59 (84.75%) succesfully completed passes
- 2 more players linked with Car Crash FC have been Phil Jagielka of Everton and Scott Dann of Birmingham. Looking at the same stats for these 2 players, Jagielka didn't exactly cover himself in glory, losing possession in the build-up to QPR's goal, and completing only 74.45% of his passes successfully, with Dann faring only slightly better in Birmingham's 1-1 draw at home to Spurs last season (77.14%). Arsene Wenger's hunt for a ball-playing centre-back is likely to lead him overseas
- Sunderland's Simon Mignolet didn't impress in their 1-0 defeat at home to Newcastle- his positioning for Ryan Taylor's goal was terrible, so much so that it would have been rude of Taylor not to put the ball in the far corner (the goal he conceded at Liverpool last weekend was from a similar position on the other side). Mignolet's distribution was poor as well, with less than half of his passes finding a team-mate. It's therefore difficult to see why Mignolet is in Steve Bruce's team ahead of the far superior Craig Gordon
- I quite like the Guardian chalkboards
Also, y'all may have noticed the absence of a full-blown season preview. This is mainly due to the fact that I've been superuberdeuberdeduper busy, but also because of the situation where the season starts before the close of the transfer window. Therefore, were I to write at the beginning of August, for example, that Stoke City needed a new striker, Tony Pulis could then read this and go out and sign the required frontman
Saturday, 26 February 2011
Weekend Betting, Saturday 26th February
Howdy folks. Here are a few tips for the weekend for you to either:
a) spend what little is left of your last pay cheque on
b) start spending your new pay cheque on
a) spend what little is left of your last pay cheque on
b) start spending your new pay cheque on
- 'Tis the Carling Cup Final on Sunday. Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to win the trophy, although a defence as stodgy as Birmingham's could frustrate them for some time if Arsenal don't score early, therefore I'm thinking about avoiding Betfred's 4/7 on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes. I'm more tempted to place a sizeable sum on Arsenal Draw No Bet at 2/9 with Bwin, or the 3/10 on Arsenal to win the trophy at 3/10 with Skybet
- A league I know a fair bit about, having followed Ross County through its good, bad and mostly ugly travails, is the Scottish 1st Division, and there are a few interesting bets to be had today. One of the oldest footballing cliches is that the league table never lies. However, it does in the 1st Division this season, thanks to Dundee's 25 point deduction. Without it, they would be 6 points clear at the top of the league, which would be a fair reflection of their status as the best team in the league. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season, and hence are well worth backing at a general 4/7 to beat a Morton side with an away record of 1-4-5. Also worth backing in the 1st division are Falkirk to beat Cowdenbeath at a general 4/11. A more speculative punt in the same division comes at Stark's Park, where the first signs of the widely-expected Raith collapse have appeared, losing 3 of their last 5. John McGlynn's side are without a number of players due to injury for the visit of an improving Stirling Albion. If you're feeling particularly brave, Stirling can be backed to win at a general 15/2, otherwise the Double Chance Draw/Stirling is available at a general 12/5
RIP DEAN RICHARDS
Sunday, 13 February 2011
AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February
My Thoughts
This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.
The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.
The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals
This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.
The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.
The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals
Tuesday, 18 January 2011
The Flaws in a 10 team SPL, and my vision for a better league, Part 1
It has been announced this week that the SPL have provisionally decided on a 10 team SPL, with a 12 team "SPL2" featuring new regulations such as a requirement for a minimum of 3000 seats and undersoil heating at teams' stadia, along with full-time youth players. Over a few parts (I'm thinking 3) I'll explain why I, along with the majority of Scottish football supporters, feel this is the wrong route for Scottish football to go down, and give my vision for an alternative. In this first part, I'll explain why an 18 team SPL is the way forward.
The basic structure I, as self-appointed Head of All of Scottish Football Administration, would consist of an 18 team SPL- each team would play each other twice. The Scottish First Division would consist of 16 teams, again each playing each other twice, with the Scottish Second Division again consisting of 16 teams, each playing each other twice. The Scottish Third Division would cease to continue, with the teams currently residing in it moving up to the new enlarged Second Division. Between the SPL and the First Division, there would be 3 automatic promotion places at the end of the season, with 3 automatic promotion places also available between the First Division and the Second Division. No promotion/relegation play-offs would be entered into, although this, along with the number of places, would be reviewed annually.
In the SPL, each team would play 34 games, with the First and Second Division teams playing 30 games each. This would allow for all 3 leagues to take a proper winter break of 4-6 weeks from roughly the middle of December to the middle of January, during which time climactic conditions usually prohibit the playing of much football anyway. To accommodate this, the 3 leagues would all start late July, then after returning from the winter break playing until early-mid May, with the final SPL fixtures 1 week after the final First and Second Division matches. The reduction in the number of games will lead to a reduction in the requirement for leauge matches to be played midweek, when crowds tend to be lower.
The Scottish Cup would continue in its existing format. However, the SFL Challenge Cup would be discontinued, in order to allow the SFL to focus on improving the strength of the First and Second Divisions, in order to ready their teams for the SPL.
The existing SPL stadium rules of a requirement for undersoil heating and 6000 seats would remain in place in the SPL. There would be no new ground rules for the First and Second Divisions, and teams promoted from the First Division to the SPL would have 6 months from the end of their promotion season to install enough seats to give them 6000, and a further 6 months to install undersoil heating, in order to minimise disruption to the playing surface mid-season.
The structure of an 18 team SPL, 16 team First Division and 16 team Second Division would require a total of 50 teams. There would be no "pyramid" structure below this, as contrary to popular belief, there is a limited level of desire among the Junior and Highland League clubs for it- the last time a place in the existing structure opened up (when Annan Athletic joined the SFL) there were only 5 applicants. That demand could easily be met by the 8 new places that would be available by clubs such as Spartans and Cove Rangers.
Well, that's my blueprint. Part 2 will follow soon
The basic structure I, as self-appointed Head of All of Scottish Football Administration, would consist of an 18 team SPL- each team would play each other twice. The Scottish First Division would consist of 16 teams, again each playing each other twice, with the Scottish Second Division again consisting of 16 teams, each playing each other twice. The Scottish Third Division would cease to continue, with the teams currently residing in it moving up to the new enlarged Second Division. Between the SPL and the First Division, there would be 3 automatic promotion places at the end of the season, with 3 automatic promotion places also available between the First Division and the Second Division. No promotion/relegation play-offs would be entered into, although this, along with the number of places, would be reviewed annually.
In the SPL, each team would play 34 games, with the First and Second Division teams playing 30 games each. This would allow for all 3 leagues to take a proper winter break of 4-6 weeks from roughly the middle of December to the middle of January, during which time climactic conditions usually prohibit the playing of much football anyway. To accommodate this, the 3 leagues would all start late July, then after returning from the winter break playing until early-mid May, with the final SPL fixtures 1 week after the final First and Second Division matches. The reduction in the number of games will lead to a reduction in the requirement for leauge matches to be played midweek, when crowds tend to be lower.
The Scottish Cup would continue in its existing format. However, the SFL Challenge Cup would be discontinued, in order to allow the SFL to focus on improving the strength of the First and Second Divisions, in order to ready their teams for the SPL.
The existing SPL stadium rules of a requirement for undersoil heating and 6000 seats would remain in place in the SPL. There would be no new ground rules for the First and Second Divisions, and teams promoted from the First Division to the SPL would have 6 months from the end of their promotion season to install enough seats to give them 6000, and a further 6 months to install undersoil heating, in order to minimise disruption to the playing surface mid-season.
The structure of an 18 team SPL, 16 team First Division and 16 team Second Division would require a total of 50 teams. There would be no "pyramid" structure below this, as contrary to popular belief, there is a limited level of desire among the Junior and Highland League clubs for it- the last time a place in the existing structure opened up (when Annan Athletic joined the SFL) there were only 5 applicants. That demand could easily be met by the 8 new places that would be available by clubs such as Spartans and Cove Rangers.
Well, that's my blueprint. Part 2 will follow soon
Friday, 19 November 2010
Shifty and Graeme's (and Danny and Rory's) Latest Big Blog Adventure
Saturday 6th November 2010, Falkirk v Ross County
12:10pm
Graeme, Danny and Rory arrive in Falkirk, at Falkirk Grahamston station, conveniently situated in the centre of the town, and within walking distance of the imaginatively-named Falkirk Stadium. Shifty, however, due to Scotrail engineering works, ends up at Falkirk High station, which is on the other side of town, and therefore has to make a 20-minute cross-town trek to meet up with his chums. Why does a town the size of Falkirk need 2 railway stations anyway?
12:30
The group meet up in the Behind the Wall pub, and the first round of pints are ordered. The group notice that the pub are running a bus to the game, and then back to the pub afterwards, for free for anyone buying drinks. After some deilberation, the group decide to take up this offer of a free lift to the game.
12:50
Danny suggests a game- 20 questions, with the subject matter being obscure SPL and EPL players from the mid-1990s onwards. Classic names such as Hicham Zerouali, Theo Snelders, Billy Dodds and Mickael Silvestre all come up. The group also reminisce about the time when Shifty remarked that a particularly depressed-looking Davie Weir, immediately after one of Rangers' Champions League shellackings, looked like "his wife just died". NB: This is of course untrue. Mrs Weir met her maker throwing herself infront of the king's horse in the derby
13:20
Another drinking game. Name the ground, and if you've been there, take a drink. As the group are all fairly well-travelled, this didn't last long.
13:40
The pub have the Bolton v Tottenham game on. With Bolton winning 3-0, Harry Redknapp's face looks even more hangdog than usual. During the 2nd half, the group all put £1 in a "corner kitty", and every time there is a corner in the match, the kitty moves to the next person. Graeme eventually claims the £4 jackpot
14:20
The bus arrives, and the group head off to the match. Shifty gets heckled for wearing his County top
14:40
The group arrive at the ground and make their way around to the away end, to join a travelling County support of about 200, among them an old boy in a rastafarian hat
15:00
The match kicks off, with Graeme having used his corner kitty jackpot to get the 50-50 tickets in
15:15
Some choice chants are forthcoming: "Referee, ya balloon!", followed by the excellent "Referee, you're about as much use as Anne Frank's drumkit" (Copyright Danny, 2010)
15:27
GOOOAALLL! 1-0 County, Andy Barrowman after some sexual work from Iain Vigurs. Jose Mourinho is said to be monitoring his progress
15:45
Half-time, County deservedly 1-0 up, and playing with some style and panache too. The half-time queue for pies as quite big, though, with only 2 folk serving. By the time the group get to the front, all the pies are gone, meaning Rory has to munch on a jumbo hotdog. This lack of pies leads to some frustration among the more senile members of the travelling support
16:00
The 2nd half kicks off as the group get their munch from the kiosk
16:30
County still leading 1-0 but having to absorb some pressure, although the Staggies do look threatening on the counter-attack. Graeme, while checking other scores on his phone, happens to notice that Celtic are running up a cricket score against Aberdeen
16:50
Peep-peep! Full time 1-0 County. A bully result. The group begin the walk back into town
17:20
The group pitch up in Sportsters, in the town centre, and pints are ordered. Shifty is told to remove his County top. What sort of sports bar doesn't allow its patrons to wear sports kit?
The group find a table next to a PC, and much laughs are had when they find that the most visited website on it is bebo
18:00
The group move on to another pub, the Scotia. Again, Shifty is asked to remove his County top, but the locals are more friendly here, and the group have another pint before heading off home.
20:00
The group arrive back at their own pads, and find that, after all attending County games, home and away, for many moons, they have been dismissed as a "notable fanny element" on the County forum. Happy days
12:10pm
Graeme, Danny and Rory arrive in Falkirk, at Falkirk Grahamston station, conveniently situated in the centre of the town, and within walking distance of the imaginatively-named Falkirk Stadium. Shifty, however, due to Scotrail engineering works, ends up at Falkirk High station, which is on the other side of town, and therefore has to make a 20-minute cross-town trek to meet up with his chums. Why does a town the size of Falkirk need 2 railway stations anyway?
12:30
The group meet up in the Behind the Wall pub, and the first round of pints are ordered. The group notice that the pub are running a bus to the game, and then back to the pub afterwards, for free for anyone buying drinks. After some deilberation, the group decide to take up this offer of a free lift to the game.
12:50
Danny suggests a game- 20 questions, with the subject matter being obscure SPL and EPL players from the mid-1990s onwards. Classic names such as Hicham Zerouali, Theo Snelders, Billy Dodds and Mickael Silvestre all come up. The group also reminisce about the time when Shifty remarked that a particularly depressed-looking Davie Weir, immediately after one of Rangers' Champions League shellackings, looked like "his wife just died". NB: This is of course untrue. Mrs Weir met her maker throwing herself infront of the king's horse in the derby
13:20
Another drinking game. Name the ground, and if you've been there, take a drink. As the group are all fairly well-travelled, this didn't last long.
13:40
The pub have the Bolton v Tottenham game on. With Bolton winning 3-0, Harry Redknapp's face looks even more hangdog than usual. During the 2nd half, the group all put £1 in a "corner kitty", and every time there is a corner in the match, the kitty moves to the next person. Graeme eventually claims the £4 jackpot
14:20
The bus arrives, and the group head off to the match. Shifty gets heckled for wearing his County top
14:40
The group arrive at the ground and make their way around to the away end, to join a travelling County support of about 200, among them an old boy in a rastafarian hat
15:00
The match kicks off, with Graeme having used his corner kitty jackpot to get the 50-50 tickets in
15:15
Some choice chants are forthcoming: "Referee, ya balloon!", followed by the excellent "Referee, you're about as much use as Anne Frank's drumkit" (Copyright Danny, 2010)
15:27
GOOOAALLL! 1-0 County, Andy Barrowman after some sexual work from Iain Vigurs. Jose Mourinho is said to be monitoring his progress
15:45
Half-time, County deservedly 1-0 up, and playing with some style and panache too. The half-time queue for pies as quite big, though, with only 2 folk serving. By the time the group get to the front, all the pies are gone, meaning Rory has to munch on a jumbo hotdog. This lack of pies leads to some frustration among the more senile members of the travelling support
16:00
The 2nd half kicks off as the group get their munch from the kiosk
16:30
County still leading 1-0 but having to absorb some pressure, although the Staggies do look threatening on the counter-attack. Graeme, while checking other scores on his phone, happens to notice that Celtic are running up a cricket score against Aberdeen
16:50
Peep-peep! Full time 1-0 County. A bully result. The group begin the walk back into town
17:20
The group pitch up in Sportsters, in the town centre, and pints are ordered. Shifty is told to remove his County top. What sort of sports bar doesn't allow its patrons to wear sports kit?
The group find a table next to a PC, and much laughs are had when they find that the most visited website on it is bebo
18:00
The group move on to another pub, the Scotia. Again, Shifty is asked to remove his County top, but the locals are more friendly here, and the group have another pint before heading off home.
20:00
The group arrive back at their own pads, and find that, after all attending County games, home and away, for many moons, they have been dismissed as a "notable fanny element" on the County forum. Happy days
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Preview of Weekend Betting Preview
Ahoy, folks!
A quick line to say that I'll get a preview of this weekend's action up tonight, for tomorrow be featuring a classic game of Friday Football for this writer. I'll also hopefully squeeze in a quick bit about F1. On F1, looks to me judging by this article http://www.autosport.com/features/article.php/id/3151 that Autosport journo Mark Hughes has had his collar felt somewhat by Ferrari. Hughes is a well-respected F1 journalist from the north-east of England, and says his source is someone within the Ferrari team. Hmmm- I wonder if there's anyone in the Ferrari team who would have access to Felipe Massa's telemetry who's also from that part of the world?
Over and out
"What's this one called, Shrek?"
A quick line to say that I'll get a preview of this weekend's action up tonight, for tomorrow be featuring a classic game of Friday Football for this writer. I'll also hopefully squeeze in a quick bit about F1. On F1, looks to me judging by this article http://www.autosport.com/features/article.php/id/3151 that Autosport journo Mark Hughes has had his collar felt somewhat by Ferrari. Hughes is a well-respected F1 journalist from the north-east of England, and says his source is someone within the Ferrari team. Hmmm- I wonder if there's anyone in the Ferrari team who would have access to Felipe Massa's telemetry who's also from that part of the world?
Over and out
"What's this one called, Shrek?"
Friday, 15 October 2010
Weekend Betting, Saturday 16th October, and the incontinence problem among bookmakers
Getting these on the now as I'm off to Old Trafford tomorrow. K Stand Tier 2
Here are a few tips for the weekend, then:
Here are a few tips for the weekend, then:
- Arsenal, despite their recent aberration at home to West Brom, should have enough to comfortably dispose of a Birmingham side whose recent form can best be described as patchy. Boylesports' 1/3 is probably about right, along with over 2.5 goals at a general 1/2 in a game that usually produces them
- Aston Villa host Chelsea in the 5.30pm game, a fixture that Villa won 2-1 last season. Given this, and that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Lampard and Alex amongst others, the 4/1 generally available on Villa seems good value. This is a fixture that has caught Chelsea out in the past, indeed a trawl through this very blog's archives will produce this writer tipping Villa in this fixture last season. Also, you'll never guess where this writer was the day of that game. Also worth considering in this game is John Carew 1st goalscorer- the giant Norwegian will be relishing the prospect of facing a potentially makeshift Chelsea defence, and is available at a best price of 10/1 with bwin
- There are a few interesting bets to be had in the Championship this weekend. Doncaster to win away at Scunthorpe are great value at 15/8 with Stan James, while another away win in Yorkshire could be seen at Bramall Lane, with Burnley available at a general 7/4 to triumph over inconsistent Sheffield United. The best value bet, though, might just be Norwich to win away at QPR at an outstanding 9/2 with bet365. QPR's excellent start to the season has been well-documented, but Norwich under Paul Lambert have been quietly impressive on their return to the Championship and currently reside in 3rd place. The 9/2 on the Canaries could be a nice single if you're feeling brave, alternatively the double chance Norwich-Draw is available at a general 11/10
- It's official: the bookies have shat themselves! Many have suspended betting on Stirling Albion v Dundee tomorrow, and those that are still running markets have severely shortened Stirling Albion after the redundancies at Dundee today. Of the odds still available, Hills' 6/5 as as good as you'll find (they were 7/4 yesterday), and should be snapped up- Albion must surely now be favourites given the shedding of playing and coaching staff forced upon Dundee
- As regular readers of this blog will know, this writer tends to shy away from betting on his own teams, but the 4/1 offered by Ladbrokes on Ross County to win away at Dunfermline is very tempting, especially considering the return last weekend of strikers Andy Barrowman and Steven Craig for the Staggies
Remember the name, Shinji Kagawa
Monday, 11 October 2010
This Old Chestnut, and some other tips
A few tips coming up, along with an old favourite topic of mine:
England v Montenegro, Tuesday 12th October
Regular readers of this blog will know my feelings about the odds offered on England games, and once again they have gone far too short in their pricing for this game, with England at a general 1/4. Montenegro, despite their lack of experience competing as an independent nation, are not the minnows their 5th seeding for these qualifiers suggests. They are currently ranked 40th in the world (only 3 places below that world footballing superpower the Czech Republic), and have won all 3 of their games in this group so far, putting them well in contention for at least 2nd place in the group. They can be backed outright at a general 14/1, with the draw available at 11/2 with totesport- both are worth a small flutter, or alternatively one should be able to lay England at somewhere close to 4/1. Also, on the handicap market, Montenegro +2 appeals, and if you shop around you should find this bet available above evens. Finally, if you're looking for a couple of anytime goalscorers, then have a wee punt on Steven Gerrard (13/8 with Boylesports), who should be free from the general malaise affecting his club side, and Montenegro's main goal threat, short-lifing Roma striker Mirko Vucinic (19/4 with Unibet)
Ah, international midweeks. Finding value here is extremely difficult, particularly this week, which seems to have even more big team v little team matches than usual. One could fairly safely populate their coupon with Turkey, Germany, Czech Republic, Portugal and France, but there are a few interesting bets out there. Italy are a very tempting 5/6 with Unitbet to win at home to a Serbia side just off the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Estonia, while the general 4/6 on Russia to win in Macedonia should also be snapped up. A final, more speculative punt would be to back in-form Austria at a general 4/1 to win away at inconsistent and inexperienced Belgium. Tuck in, folks
England v Montenegro, Tuesday 12th October
Regular readers of this blog will know my feelings about the odds offered on England games, and once again they have gone far too short in their pricing for this game, with England at a general 1/4. Montenegro, despite their lack of experience competing as an independent nation, are not the minnows their 5th seeding for these qualifiers suggests. They are currently ranked 40th in the world (only 3 places below that world footballing superpower the Czech Republic), and have won all 3 of their games in this group so far, putting them well in contention for at least 2nd place in the group. They can be backed outright at a general 14/1, with the draw available at 11/2 with totesport- both are worth a small flutter, or alternatively one should be able to lay England at somewhere close to 4/1. Also, on the handicap market, Montenegro +2 appeals, and if you shop around you should find this bet available above evens. Finally, if you're looking for a couple of anytime goalscorers, then have a wee punt on Steven Gerrard (13/8 with Boylesports), who should be free from the general malaise affecting his club side, and Montenegro's main goal threat, short-lifing Roma striker Mirko Vucinic (19/4 with Unibet)
Ah, international midweeks. Finding value here is extremely difficult, particularly this week, which seems to have even more big team v little team matches than usual. One could fairly safely populate their coupon with Turkey, Germany, Czech Republic, Portugal and France, but there are a few interesting bets out there. Italy are a very tempting 5/6 with Unitbet to win at home to a Serbia side just off the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Estonia, while the general 4/6 on Russia to win in Macedonia should also be snapped up. A final, more speculative punt would be to back in-form Austria at a general 4/1 to win away at inconsistent and inexperienced Belgium. Tuck in, folks
Saturday, 2 October 2010
What we've learned so far this season
Here are a few things we've learned so far this season, along with a few tips for this weekend:
Darren Bent- the gift that keeps on giving
Last season, this writer was quick to jump on the Darren Bent 1st goalscorer bandwagon, and made a healthy profit from doing so. He's started this season in good form as well, with 5 Premier League goals so far, 2 of them 1st, as well as getting off the mark internationally. This afternoon he's available at a shade under 7/1 1st goalscorer with Unibet, and 23/10 anytime scorer with Boylesports- outstanding value against a Manchester United defence that has conceded 9 goals in 5 away games in all competitions so far this season
Sir Alex Ferguson may have a sense of humour
When asked about Javier Hernandez's winning goal against Valencia, Sir Alex's response was along the lines of "he needs to work on his physique, but he's a fantastic finisher, it's like shelling peas to him". Hernandez bears the moniker "Chicharito" on the back of his shirt. Chicharito in Hernandez's mother tongue, Spanish, of course means "Little Pea". I'm here all week (Sir Alex isn't, though- he's not talking to anyone from the media for a month)
Steve McClaren is Wolfsburg boss, and was FC Twente boss last season
Commentators, pundits, journalists, WE ALL KNOW THIS. You do not need to remind us every time 1 of the 2 aforementioned teams comes up in conversation
A couple of tasty lower-league bets for you this afternoon
Rochdale (4th in League 1, unbeaten in their last 6, 2-2-0 away) are a very tasty 9/4 to win away at 11th place Exeter, while in League 2 table-topping Port Vale (won their last 5, 4-0-0 away from home) are a shade over (OVER!) 2/1 with Victor Chandler away at 12th-placed Oxford (no wins in their last 3, 1-1-2 at home). Tuck in to those, folks
Alessandro Del Piero: still got it
Il Pinturicchio has been in sparkling form for a stuttering Juventus side this season, and although the 35-year-old has yet to score in Serie A, he has been a joy to watch, creating opportunities for team-mates (and keeping new signing Simone Pepe mostly on the bench) and, along with Serbian winger Milos Krasic, providing flair and incision in an otherwise functional Juventus side. Extrabet offer 9/1 on him to get off the mark with the 1st goal in tomorrow night's game away to Inter
Darren Bent- the gift that keeps on giving
Last season, this writer was quick to jump on the Darren Bent 1st goalscorer bandwagon, and made a healthy profit from doing so. He's started this season in good form as well, with 5 Premier League goals so far, 2 of them 1st, as well as getting off the mark internationally. This afternoon he's available at a shade under 7/1 1st goalscorer with Unibet, and 23/10 anytime scorer with Boylesports- outstanding value against a Manchester United defence that has conceded 9 goals in 5 away games in all competitions so far this season
Sir Alex Ferguson may have a sense of humour
When asked about Javier Hernandez's winning goal against Valencia, Sir Alex's response was along the lines of "he needs to work on his physique, but he's a fantastic finisher, it's like shelling peas to him". Hernandez bears the moniker "Chicharito" on the back of his shirt. Chicharito in Hernandez's mother tongue, Spanish, of course means "Little Pea". I'm here all week (Sir Alex isn't, though- he's not talking to anyone from the media for a month)
Steve McClaren is Wolfsburg boss, and was FC Twente boss last season
Commentators, pundits, journalists, WE ALL KNOW THIS. You do not need to remind us every time 1 of the 2 aforementioned teams comes up in conversation
A couple of tasty lower-league bets for you this afternoon
Rochdale (4th in League 1, unbeaten in their last 6, 2-2-0 away) are a very tasty 9/4 to win away at 11th place Exeter, while in League 2 table-topping Port Vale (won their last 5, 4-0-0 away from home) are a shade over (OVER!) 2/1 with Victor Chandler away at 12th-placed Oxford (no wins in their last 3, 1-1-2 at home). Tuck in to those, folks
Alessandro Del Piero: still got it
Il Pinturicchio has been in sparkling form for a stuttering Juventus side this season, and although the 35-year-old has yet to score in Serie A, he has been a joy to watch, creating opportunities for team-mates (and keeping new signing Simone Pepe mostly on the bench) and, along with Serbian winger Milos Krasic, providing flair and incision in an otherwise functional Juventus side. Extrabet offer 9/1 on him to get off the mark with the 1st goal in tomorrow night's game away to Inter
Tuesday, 16 February 2010
Shifty's Last Word World Cup Squad Competition
SPECIAL FEATURE!
In the run up to the 2010 World Cup, we will be running a number of special features on the blog, the first of which Shifty is pleased to announce today:
ENGLAND SQUAD SELECTOR
Inspired by an off-the-cuff comment from Graeme (of Graeme's Silly Bet fame), the idea is that everyone submits the 23 players they think will make up the England (we'll consider doing a few other nations, based on how well this goes) squad in South Africa, and there'll be a prize* for whoever gets closest to Fabio Capello's actual 23 man squad. To enter, just drop Shifty an email at vanderdalgarno@hotmail.co.uk this Friday (it's the fairest way to do it by having everyone submit their squad on the same day) with your selection
*There may not be a prize
In the run up to the 2010 World Cup, we will be running a number of special features on the blog, the first of which Shifty is pleased to announce today:
ENGLAND SQUAD SELECTOR
Inspired by an off-the-cuff comment from Graeme (of Graeme's Silly Bet fame), the idea is that everyone submits the 23 players they think will make up the England (we'll consider doing a few other nations, based on how well this goes) squad in South Africa, and there'll be a prize* for whoever gets closest to Fabio Capello's actual 23 man squad. To enter, just drop Shifty an email at vanderdalgarno@hotmail.co.uk this Friday (it's the fairest way to do it by having everyone submit their squad on the same day) with your selection
*There may not be a prize
Tuesday, 2 February 2010
Rangers v St Johnstone, Wednesday 3rd February
My Thoughts
A rare venture into midweek territory for the blog here, for this Co-Op Cup Semi-Final tie at Hampden. Both these sides have been going well in the SPL recently; Rangers have opened up a 10 point gap at the top, while only Celtic have defeated St Johnstone in their last 6 games. Hampden Park shouldn't intimidate St Johnstone- they have made it to the national stadium for semi-finals in both cup competitions on numerous occasions throughout the last few years, and were certainly not outclassed in 2-1 and 3-0 defeats against Rangers this season.
The Verdict
Rangers have generally been doing enough in recent weeks to get results without playing particularly brilliantly, coping with the absence of key players reasonably well. After a slightly shaky start, St Johnstone are now finding their feet in the SPL, and should have more than enough in the tank to avoid relegation. As mentioned, St Johnstone have a good cup record in recent years, and it's certainly not beyond them to take a slightly misfiring Rangers side to extra-time, as they did in 2008 in the Scottish Cup Semi Final, a match remembered for Martin Hardie (himself now ironically facing a lengthy absence through injury) destroying Steven Naismith and Kevin Thomson with bone-crunching tackles.
The Bet
If you fancy the Saints to take Rangers to extra-time, then the draw can be backed at a best price of 9/2 with Bwin. Other than that, semi-finals tend to be notoriously low-scoring, cagey affairs, and a quick look through the Co-Op Cup archives confirms this, and Rangers without Kris Boyd seem devoid of firepower. With that in mind, consider taking under 2.5 goals at a best price of 5/4 with William Hill.
A rare venture into midweek territory for the blog here, for this Co-Op Cup Semi-Final tie at Hampden. Both these sides have been going well in the SPL recently; Rangers have opened up a 10 point gap at the top, while only Celtic have defeated St Johnstone in their last 6 games. Hampden Park shouldn't intimidate St Johnstone- they have made it to the national stadium for semi-finals in both cup competitions on numerous occasions throughout the last few years, and were certainly not outclassed in 2-1 and 3-0 defeats against Rangers this season.
The Verdict
Rangers have generally been doing enough in recent weeks to get results without playing particularly brilliantly, coping with the absence of key players reasonably well. After a slightly shaky start, St Johnstone are now finding their feet in the SPL, and should have more than enough in the tank to avoid relegation. As mentioned, St Johnstone have a good cup record in recent years, and it's certainly not beyond them to take a slightly misfiring Rangers side to extra-time, as they did in 2008 in the Scottish Cup Semi Final, a match remembered for Martin Hardie (himself now ironically facing a lengthy absence through injury) destroying Steven Naismith and Kevin Thomson with bone-crunching tackles.
The Bet
If you fancy the Saints to take Rangers to extra-time, then the draw can be backed at a best price of 9/2 with Bwin. Other than that, semi-finals tend to be notoriously low-scoring, cagey affairs, and a quick look through the Co-Op Cup archives confirms this, and Rangers without Kris Boyd seem devoid of firepower. With that in mind, consider taking under 2.5 goals at a best price of 5/4 with William Hill.
Monday, 18 January 2010
Weekend Review
Here's how this weekend's suggested bets got on:
Stoke and Liverpool to draw at 23/10: 1 unit returns 3.3
Stoke 1X at 3/4: 1 unit returns 1.75
Under 2.5 goals at 8/11: 1 unit returns 1.73
First booking under 33 minutes at 5/6: 1 unit returns 1.83
Manchester United to beat Burnley at 1/7: 1 unit returns 1.14
2-0 Man Utd: 1 unit returns 0
Over 10 corners: 1 unit returns 0
Total outlay: 7 units
Total return: 9.75 units
Total profit: 2.75 units
Return as a percentage: 139.29%
Stoke and Liverpool to draw at 23/10: 1 unit returns 3.3
Stoke 1X at 3/4: 1 unit returns 1.75
Under 2.5 goals at 8/11: 1 unit returns 1.73
First booking under 33 minutes at 5/6: 1 unit returns 1.83
Manchester United to beat Burnley at 1/7: 1 unit returns 1.14
2-0 Man Utd: 1 unit returns 0
Over 10 corners: 1 unit returns 0
Total outlay: 7 units
Total return: 9.75 units
Total profit: 2.75 units
Return as a percentage: 139.29%
Wednesday, 6 January 2010
A Warm Welcome to a Cold 2010 from Shifty
Good news, everyone!
After an extended winter break, your favourite bloggers are back for 2010. Predictions for games at the moment are tricky, due to the fact that they're all getting called off at the minute, but we'll get a few games written up for Saturday. Also, expect Shifty to be busy in the January And 1st February Transfer Window, with a new blog signing a distinct possibility.
Shifty's 1st tip for the weekend:
Whoever Jeff Stelling tips to win (e.g. Colchester last weekend), back them to lose by a hefty margin (7-0 Preston)
After an extended winter break, your favourite bloggers are back for 2010. Predictions for games at the moment are tricky, due to the fact that they're all getting called off at the minute, but we'll get a few games written up for Saturday. Also, expect Shifty to be busy in the January And 1st February Transfer Window, with a new blog signing a distinct possibility.
Shifty's 1st tip for the weekend:
Whoever Jeff Stelling tips to win (e.g. Colchester last weekend), back them to lose by a hefty margin (7-0 Preston)
Wednesday, 18 November 2009
France v Ireland, Wednesday 18th November
My Thoughts
There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.
The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.
The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.
There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.
The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.
The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.
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