Saturday 30 January 2010

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th January

Aye, aye, chappies and chappettes who be following this here blog (get Facebook in Pirate Language, side-splittingly funny). Here's some musings on the weekend's matches:

  • West Ham look very tempting at a general 11/10 to beat Blackburn Rovers. Rovers have been utterly honking away from Ewood Park all season, and the Hammers are showing signs that, with their new owners promising oodles of cash for Gianfranco Zola to strenghten his side, they can power themselves clear of the drop zone...
  • ...And land someone else in it. Wolves are available to be relegated at 11/8 with Stan James, which looks big for a side largely full of Championship players. And given their recent terrible form, an injury to Darren Bent would see Sunderland plummet from their current 13th position (only 3 points above the drop zone) and current price of 14/1 with Paddy Power
  • Some say he played over 140 games for Nottingham Forest. And that to help him sleep at night, instead of counting sheep, he counts pigeons. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and if he's going to keep Burnley in the Premier League, then it will be their home form that is key. And what better way to get your first home win as Burnley manager than at home to an-understrength Chelsea? Expect the Bob Lord Stand faithful to be chanting "Does Wayne Bridge's missus know you're here?". Bet365 go 12/1 on the home win, which seems a bit long considering the Hotpot-Munchers' home record
  • Hibernian to beat St Mirren looks good value at a best price of 4/6 with Skybet. The Hibees will be bouncing after beating Celtic away from home in midweek, while St Mirren, who are nowt special away from home anyway, are bound to have one eye on their midweek Co-Op Cup Semi Final

Graeme's Silly Bet, ken

JT gets pumped!

Just when I have nearly finalised my mental predictions for the England World Cup Squad (we'll do a feature on that sometime soon- Ed) that prick John Terry goes and bollocks it all up. He has possibly jeopardised his place in the squad by shafting his team-mate's ex-wife. She isn't even that fit, hilariously old, or a popstar. Idiot. (Graeme had posted a link, but it was from the Daily Mail website, and I didn't want readers' PCs getting infected with bigotry, royalty-bumming and out-of-touch viruses- Ed)

So get your money on Beckham to be restored as England captain for the World Cup.

On to the weekend's football

One general rule this weekend is not to touch Liverpool. I can't believe how predictably bad they continue to be. Failure to win this weekend will mean a confirmed end of season exit for Benitez and roflcoptering all over Manchester

Two value bets that I reckon could be worth a punt are Hamilton to beat Celtic @ 6/1 and Peterborough to beat Palace away @ 4/1, both William Hill. Celtic this season are statistically worse than when John Barnes was in charge and Palace have gone into off-field turmoil so who knows how their players will react on the pitch. Both teams will win nothing this season.

In the big Sunday match, Arsenal v Man United, put some cash on Sol Campbell being sent off for being far too old and slow (although Craig Brewster is 7 years older. I have no idea why I thought of Brewster when writing about Sol Campbell- I can't think of anything that connects them- Ed). But a 2-1 home win for Arsenal, with United being without guest Guardian editor Rio Ferdinand.

Finally, all readers look out for the massive First Division clash between Dundee and Ross County on Saturday, a game that Shifty will be attending. If the Staggies win, they will be 6 points off the top, 3 games in hand. SPL here we come. Also look out to see how much coverage the Sunday papers give to this match as they seem to have been ignoring the current 2nd-placed team so far

Friday 22 January 2010

Graeme's Hastily Scribbled Down Silly Bet

Here's this weekend's musings (which eventually reached editor-in-chief via Graeme's phone, after he originally emailed it to the wrong address):

Quick post today as I am writing this at work. Here is the accumulator that we will be putting on. £2 each, everyone picks 1 team- last weekend it paid off and we won over £200 between us

VIlla to beat Brighton (1/6 with William Hill)
Southend to beat Wycombe (4/5 with Betfred)
Yeovil to beat Exeter (5/4 with Paddy Power)
Hearts to beat Rangers (8/1 with expekt.com)
Partick to beat Dunfermline (my own pick) (11/10 with expekt.com)

This should tide us over until midweek when I am going to do a silly bet special on the United city semi-final (a game that Shifty shall be attending. Stretford End Tier 2)

TTFN

Thursday 21 January 2010

Weekend Betting, Saturday 23rd January

Quick look at some good bets for this weekend (this writer is going to the Man Utd v Hull City match on Saturday, so all things blogtastic will be up by Friday night)
  • Bolton to beat Sheffield United is very good value at 5/6 with bet365. Despite two defeats against Arsenal this week, there have been signs of improvement under Owen Coyle, who will be looking to claim a first win as Bolton manager against a Sheffield United side who are nothing special away from home, and could be weakened further if Matthew Kilgallon completes a transfer away from the club
  • Think twice before piling into Fulham at 1/2 with Skybet away at Accrington Stanley. Fulham are notoriously bad away from home, and are weakened further by the absence of Clint Dempsey, Bobby Zamora and anyone Woy Hodgson decides to rest for the trip to the Crown Ground. It may even be worth having a small bet on Accrington 1X (aka Double Chance Home/Draw) at a best price of 13/8 with Boylesports- Accrington have lost only 1 of their last 7 games
  • Cowdenbeath are excellent value at 11/8 with Blue Square to win away at Dumbarton on Saturday. Dumbarton have been shaky at home all season (2-3-4), while Cowdenbeath have been impressive home and away, and sit top of the Second Division, a league that they were actually relegated from last season. My advice to those of you with accounts with Blue Square is to get on this. My advice to those of you without Blue Square accounts is to open a Blue Square account and get on this
  • Arsenal at 7/2 to win the league with Betfred is big. They play Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool within the next 3 weeks. One way or the other, they're likely to have moved from 7/2 by then
  • If you're seriously considering taking the general 4/5 available on Chelsea to win the league, then you were born yesterday. With Essien likely to be ruled out for up to a month, and the fixtures above still to be played (as well as trips to Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and anfailed still to be played), they are a long way from being in the clear. For the big man's sake, they're not even top
  • To return to Bolton, despite showing signs of improvement, they still took zero points from their 2 games against Arsenal. While this wasn't exactly unexpected, it does mean that they still find themselves in 19th place. Owen Coyle's desire to get Bolton playing football again would no doubt have been centred on the technical ability of midfielder Mark Davies, who could be set for a while out injured after Wednesday's loss at Arsenal- they also have the highest goals conceded per game stat, a figure that's not likely to improve if Bolton continue to defend they way Coyle's Burnley team did away from home. To that end, it's amazing to see that they can still be backed at a general 11/4 to go down

Monday 18 January 2010

Weekend Review

Here's how this weekend's suggested bets got on:

Stoke and Liverpool to draw at 23/10: 1 unit returns 3.3
Stoke 1X at 3/4: 1 unit returns 1.75
Under 2.5 goals at 8/11: 1 unit returns 1.73
First booking under 33 minutes at 5/6: 1 unit returns 1.83
Manchester United to beat Burnley at 1/7: 1 unit returns 1.14
2-0 Man Utd: 1 unit returns 0
Over 10 corners: 1 unit returns 0

Total outlay: 7 units
Total return: 9.75 units
Total profit: 2.75 units
Return as a percentage: 139.29%

Friday 15 January 2010

Stoke City v Liverpool, Saturday 16th January

My Thoughts

Quick question: in all competitions, which of these two sides has lost more matches this season?

Answer: Liverpool. Wednesday's FA Cup defeat (if you watched the games, you'll know it couldn't exactly be considered a shock) at home to Reading was their 12th in all competitions so far this season, while Stoke have been vanquished on only 9 occasions thus far this season- a stat that few would have thought possible, never mind expected, after Liverpool's 4-0 win in the reverse fixture in August.

The Verdict
Stoke have a little bit of momentum behind them, having won their last 2 games, scoring 3 times against both Fulham and York City in The FA Cup Sponsored By Enron. Their physical, hoof-it-forward-for-the-frontman-to-chase-and-try-and-win-a-throw-in tactics are not exactly easy on the eye, but Tuncay is, and a home record so far of 5-2-3 is strong enough, and a continuation of it should see them survive comfortably, even without David James, after Tony Pulis pulled out of a possible loan deal for the 39 year old. Liverpool must travel to Stoke without Gerrard and Torres, and are likely to look to David N'Gog to try n'lead the n'frontline, and try and improve on an average 4-1-5 away record. Given Liverpool's depleted attack, and Stoke's good defensive record at the Brittania, don't expect a high-scoring game, and given the two sides' recent form, Stoke will certainly fancy their chances of getting a result. Draw

The Bet
Quite a few options here. The draw can be backed at a best price of 23/10 with totesport. Alternatively, Stoke 1X (also known as Double Chance Stoke/Draw) should be given serious consideration if you're torn between the draw and the home win, available at a best price of 3/4 with expekt.com, although this has been shortened a lot due to outward movement on Liverpool outright, who have gone from 4/7 (which was way too short) to 5/4, which is closer to where they should be. Also take a look at under 2.5 goals (Liverpool have been less than prolific away from home this season even with Gerrard and Torres, while Stoke have never scored a Premier League goal against Liverpool), which is available at a best price of 8/11 with Skybet, and for a slightly more speculative punt, expect a few fairly brutal taclkes coming in from both sets of players-it surely won't take long for the referee to put someone in the book, so stick a cheeky quid on Blue Square's offering at 5/6 that it will take less than 33 minutes

Graeme's Real Life Stupid Bet

This week I have taken a dual approach to gambling.

One pound, 2 bets, one considered, one retarded

So if you want to join me get down to the accumulator section at William Hill and fill out the following:

1. The Sensible Approach
It's a 50p treble on 3 draws in the following Premier League matches:
Stoke, Portsmouth and Wolves all to draw
50p wins £17.86

2. The Retarded Approach
It's a 50p accumulator on 9 teams chosen at random without any clear or concise thought:
Man Utd, Celtic, Swindon, Livingston, Walsall, Stockport, Millwall, Accrington Stanley and MK Dons to all win
50p pays out £138.37

Have fun gambling over the weekend and join me and Shifty in Nicky Tams on Friday night to buy him beers for his birthday

Thursday 14 January 2010

Manchester United v Burnley, Saturday 16th January

My Thoughts

Some say he once threw a bucket of chicken wings at Ivano Bonetti. And that he is terrified of shrubs. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and he's Burnley's new manager.

Anyway, on to Saturday's match at Old Trafford. Burnley travel to Old Trafford winless in their last 9 league games and dreadful away from Turf Moor, with a new man in charge with zero Premier League experience and up against a Manchester United side, who, despite a mid-season crisis which has seen them lose a total of 1 game in the cup, have a home record this season of 8-1-1. Welcome to the Premier League, Brian.

The Verdict
As mentioned previously, Burnley are dreadful away from Turf Moor- their record thus far this season is 0-1-9, and it's extremely difficult to see how that won't be 0-1-10 come 5pm on Saturday. Clarets fans will point to their side's 1-0 triumph in the reverse fixture earlier this season, but it's difficult to see a side which has conceded an average of 3.1 goals away from home being able to contain the likes of Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs, ..erm....Antonio Valencia......that's probably about the sum total of Man Utd's attacking threat right now. Not all hope is lost for Burnley (upfront, Steven Fletcher has adapted well to the Premier League), but even a slightly off-colour Manchester United should claim 3 points.

The Bet
Manchester United are unlikely to be available at a better price than the 1/7 Blue Square are offering, although I suspect it won't be a walkover in terms of the scoreline. For a cheeky correct score prediction, 2-0 Man Utd should be avaliable around about 7/1. Apart from that, I would still expect United to dominate most of the game- over 10 corners should definitely be considered, especially if Darron Gibson plays- just think of all those long-range shots of his picking up deflections or testing Brian Jensen

Wednesday 13 January 2010

Weekend Preview, and some other stuff that'll be on here soon






Aye aye, chappies, here's a quick rundown of what you can expect to see on the blog this weekend:







  • Shifty will be breaking from tradition and writing up his own team, Manchester United, in their home game against Burnley. That game will be written up as soon as the Lancashire Hot-Pot Munchers confirm the identity of their new gaffer, likely to be either Brian Laws, Sean O'Driscoll, Brian O'Driscoll, Sean Penn, or The Stig

  • Graeme's Silly Bet should be up by Saturday morning


  • Providing the weather doesn't decimate the fixture list again, expect to see another 1 or 2 games written up by Saturday morning

An Exciting Side Project that Shifty and Graeme will be working on in the coming weeks and months

As an extra feature on the blog, over the next wee while, Shifty and Graeme will be posting reviews of all (well, the ones we played or can get hold of easily) the great football computer games of the last 2 decades. Yes, we really are that old. Expect to see classics such as World Cup Italia 90 and FIFA 96 for the Mega Drive, iconic games such as Pro Evloution Soccer 3 and Championship Manager 01/02, through to contemporaries such as FIFA 2010 and Football Manager 2010. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAL!!!

A Small Tip for Tonight

Liverpool v Reading, FA Cup 3rd Round Replay

Both sides are having something of an annus horriblis and, after dismal starts, both have not shown the signs of recovery and title challenges that were hoped for. It's difficult to judge where exactly these teams are in terms of form given that their matches at the weekend were both postponed, therefore neither side has played since the 1-1 draw at the Madejski. Liverpool haven't exactly been trouncing teams (Hull don't count- they are terrible sans Jimy Bullard) at anfailed, so Reading need not fear a walloping. Indeed, while Liverpool should eventually triumph (as long as Gerrard and/or Torres are somewhere near their best infront of goal), Reading could make them sweat, and may even force extra time. In terms of bets, have a wee look at HT/FT Draw/Liverpool.

Friday 8 January 2010

Graeme's Silly Bet for Saturday 9th January

It's 2010, it's cold, I lost all my money on festive poker, it's time to start silly gambling again...

Quick post here tonight, got to meet chief editor to procrastinate over new blog features and discourse about gin. The shortness of this post is also compounded by my laptop's shit battery and the limited nature of this weekend's round of matches which have mostly been postponed to prevent lawsuits against wary clubs.

Thus,
Arsenal to beat Everton. If the Gunners continue their good run through January and catch the weakened Chelsea I believe they will surprisingly win the title. Go Arshavin

Birmingham to grab a smart draw with United. Another post Ferguson candidate keen to further obliterate United's title chances and possibly go equal 7th in the table. A remarkable run for Birmingham who on the past 8 results would be top of the table.

Cardiff to beat Blackpool and get their promotion push back on track.
St Mirren to beat a classy Alloa side in the Government sponsored Scottish Cup.

5 quid on a super quadruple. Although by 12pm Saturday, who knows if all these games will still be on.

Cheeky punt on Togo (or not Togo- Ed) for the Nations Cup?

Thursday 7 January 2010

Arsenal v Everton prices

There's been no word of this game being called off so far, so here are the prices for the bets recommended:

Arsenal to win outright: best price 2/5 general
Over 2.5 goals: best price 4/5 with Paddy Power
Aaron Ramsey anytime scorer: best price 7/2 with Extrabet

Arsenal v Everton, Saturday 9th January

My Thoughts

Given the current wintry weather that be affecting these here isles, this game may not even go ahead. But nonetheless, this writer's going for writing up the game, and preparing as if the game will be taking place- after all, it's what Arsene Wenger and David Moyes will be doing, isn't it?

The Verdict
Assuming the game does go ahead, there can be no denying that Everton have a real task on their hands to get anything out of this game. Despite recent improvement (unbeaten in their last 5 league games, although 4 of those were draws), Everton are still nowhere near as tough a proposition as they were the last 2 seasons, when they were very much Best of the Rest in 5th. It's extremely tempting to conclude that they still have not fully recovered after being utterly destroyed 6-1 on the opening day at home to, yep, you guessed it, Arsenal. Their away record (2-2-5) befits that of mid-table stragglers, and a lack of available strikers means that they will struggle to improve their average of 1.33 goals scored per away game this season.

Arsenal, on t'other hand, are playing majestically, swatting aside almost all comers in December - a 1-1 draw away to Burnley the only blip on an otherwise perfect league record for December. Last Sunday's FA Cup tie at West Ham produced another win, this time 2-1, but what was intriguing was that the Gunners were 1-0 down with 12 minutes remaining, yet were able to show what many lazy pundits call The Mark Of Champions, which is the ability to score late goals to win games from losing positions. This writer always thought that The Mark Of Champions was Premier League Winners Medals, such as those adorning the hairy chest of Ryan Giggs.

Arsenal's stats this season are almost as ridiculously good as Barcelona's, which I guess is kind of what Arsene Wenger was aiming for when he changed his side's shape this season- an average of 3.11 goals per home league game, 51 in total scored so far this season, and goals raining in from all parts of the team. It might not be 6-1 again, but expect another comfortable win for Arsenal.

The Bet
Usual banter here, folks- I'm at work, so will get odds put up tonight. Arsenal outright are unlikely to be much better that 2/5, so best check out some other markets. Given the sheer number of goals they score, and the continued absence of some of Everton's key defenders, over 2.5 goals has to be worth a look- also think about a cheeky punt on Aaron Ramsey anytime scorer- with Fabregas set for another week or 2 out, Ramsey is a probable starter (best wait until the starting XIs are confirmed before placing the bet) in an advanced central midfield position

Wednesday 6 January 2010

A Warm Welcome to a Cold 2010 from Shifty

Good news, everyone!

After an extended winter break, your favourite bloggers are back for 2010. Predictions for games at the moment are tricky, due to the fact that they're all getting called off at the minute, but we'll get a few games written up for Saturday. Also, expect Shifty to be busy in the January And 1st February Transfer Window, with a new blog signing a distinct possibility.

Shifty's 1st tip for the weekend:

Whoever Jeff Stelling tips to win (e.g. Colchester last weekend), back them to lose by a hefty margin (7-0 Preston)