Aston Villa v Chelsea, Saturday 17th October

My Thoughts

After the international break, we're back to league business this weekend, and this fixture looks one of the more interesting on the list. Aston Villa's form this season is good- they are in a fairly solid 7th position, with key men such as Gabriel Agbonlahor and James Milner beginning to find their form again. One of Villa's key strengths is the ability of their wide players, Milner and Ashley Young, to find space and cross the ball for powerful centre-forwards such as Agbonlahor, John Carew and Emile Heskey. Admittedly, they lack a plan B (apart from the pace of Agbonlahor against teams playing a high defensive line), but, given the narrow midfield preferred by Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti this season, it is a tactic that could well give some reward against Chelsea- expect Ancelotti to favour the more defensively-minded right-back Branislav Ivanovic over the quicksilver Jose Bosingwa against Young.

One of Ancelotti's main concerns going into this game will no doubt be fatigue- many of his players were in various far-flung corners of the earth this week on international duty. Indeed, Michael Ballack is an injury doubt having been on the receiving end of a challenge from club team-mate Yuri Zhirkov in last Saturday's Russia v Germany game. Ancelotti, who does welcome Petr Cech back from suspension, must also wrestle with the prospect of a Champions League encounter with Atletico Madrid in midweek.

The Verdict
Plenty to consider here. Both sides have had players away on international duty this week, although Chelsea's squad (which is not actually that big) will have been tested more, and Chelsea's full-backs must now prepare themselves for a thorough examining by Villa's wingmen, who will be key. If they are to win this one, Chelsea must impose themselves in the middle of the park, and look to isolate Villa's attack (ominously for Villa, Frank Lampard has gone 9 games without scoring for Chelsea). However, Villa's recent record at home to Chelsea is very good, and this writer fancies them to edge this one. Jose Mourinho's last Premier League defeat as Chelsea manager came at Villa Park- could it be the scene of Ancelotti's first?

The Bet
Stat attack: Villa have scored 70% of their goals in the 1st half of matches so far this season, and have conceded 67% of their goals in the 2nd, which points to lots of high-tempo stuff early on, before sitting back, possibly through fatigue. Odds will follow on HT/FT Villa-Villa and Draw-Villa, as well as Lampard anytime scorer, but Villa to win outright can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square