France v Ireland, Wednesday 18th November

My Thoughts

There's an old saying that goes along the lines of "lies, damn lies and statistics". Now, this writer hasn't spent the last 3 days looking at the first 2 of those, instead focusing on the statistics. And, while stats can be difficult to draw definitive conclusions from, one thing is clear: Ireland have an absolute mountain to climb. Historically, if you lose the 1st leg of your tie, you're in big trouble. Lose the 1st leg at home, and, in 12 years, no side has ever managed to qualify from such a position, and only Scotland (there's a recurring theme here: Scotland seem to be the exception to just about every single rule of the play-offs) have ever managed any kind of result in the 2nd leg, having lost the 1st leg at home. They must also score at least once against a French defence which only conceded 3 goals in 5 home qualifiers, and try and keep out a French attack which, despite being short of top form, still managed 12 goals in 5 home qualifiers. France's home form is generally good- indeed, the only team to have beaten them at home in a competitive international in the last 12 years are, yep, you guessed it, Scotland. Still, nothing wrong with blind faith and Guinness-fuelled optimism, though- Ireland did manage a 0-0 draw against France in Paris back in 2004.

The Verdict
The challenge facing Ireland is plain to see- in Saturday's 1st leg, as expected, there was plenty of endeavour from Ireland, along with a desire to test France in the air, and to try and expose their supposed weakness at set pieces. However, they achieved limited success with this ploy, and in the end the superior quality of France's attackers won them the game. Both sides are likely to adopt similar approaches, with possibly 1 or 2 personnel alterations (France centre-back Eric Abidal is ruled out with injury, Giovanni Trappattoni may decide to bring Aiden McGeady into his side on the wing). Therefore, looking at this and the previous play-off stats, at the risk of being unpopular this writer has to tip France to progress.

The Bet
Two Irish bookies, namely Boylesports and Paddy Power, are patriotically pledging to refund a selection of losing bets should Ireland win in normal time. Personally, this writer reckons their money is safe. Expect many Irish punters to have a bit of money on their team at the generally available 13/2, which represents decent value. However, a more solid bet is likely to be 0-0 at half-time, available at 9/5 with Blue Square. Neither team will want to concede early on for fear of losing momentum to the other, and Ireland may fell that their best option is to simply get a foothold in the game early on, rather than going gung-ho early on.