Weekend Betting, Saturday 27th November

Scottish Category 1 referess may be on strike this weekend, but this writer isn't, so here's a look at this weekend's somewhat truncated fixture list:

• Aston Villa v Arsenal looks interesting, with one team managed by a Frenchman featuring plenty of talented youngsters who like to play quick, counter-attacking football but have been prone to late defensive lapses in recent weeks against...erm...you get the picture. Arsenal have lost their last 2 and must also now do without Cesc Fabregas for a couple of weeks, however they do have alternatives for his position, with Samir Nasri or Tomas Rosicky likely to play in Fabregas' advanced central midfield position, meaning they still possess a potent goal threat for an Aston Villa defence that is not always the most mobile. Villa themselves possess considerable attacking threat, with Ashley Young and Barry Bannan in particular thriving under the management of Gerard Houllier, and more than capable of troubling an Arsena backline that has looked distinctly unsettled without Thomas Vermaelen. All this makes the generally available 10/11 on over 2.5 goals worth snapping up
• After their impressive start, West Brom's form has nosedived, with the Baggies now dowin in 16th place in the league. Everton, meanwhile, have recovered somewhat form their traditional awful start, and can be backed at a general 4/7 to beat Roberto di Matteo's side at Goodison Park
• Quick word of warning for anyone blindly sticking Celtic on their accumulator tomorrow. Their opponents, caley thistle, are unbeaten in the league away from home for 364 days. That's not the sort of stat you oppose lightly
• It's El Clasico on Monday night (yes, Monday night. It's unknown if anyone's actually pleased about this), with Barcelona v Real Madrid set to feature a dramatic contrast in playing styles and mentalities. Madrid will travel to the Camp Nou set on not losing the game and will most likely look to frustrate Barcelona, therefore it's worth backing them to manage this at least until half time, with 0-0 half-time available at 5/2 with Blue Square

"Wonder if Brewster likes Willie. Maybe he'd be convinced if Willie got Wood"

Shifty's Season Preview Part 2

Everton

As previously explained, the teams are being written up in a completely random order. This is to ensure each team gets a fair write-up (I'll probably be running round looking even more like a madman than normal to get them all done by next Saturday).

So to Everton. After a horrific start to last season, both in terms of results and injuries, Everton did well to recover to 8th place, just missing out on a UEFA Cup (yes, I'm still calling it that) place. On the plus side, this means that their Thursdays are free this season. However, this does mean David Moyes has had little room to manoeuvre in the transfer market, a couple of young forwards notwithstanding.

Moyes has built a strong team at Goodison Park: the spine of the team is strong, provided by the likes of Phil Neville, Tim Howard, Tony Hibbert, Johnny Heitinga (Howard Webb's first appointment at Goodison will be interesting) and the fit-again Phil Jagielka, with flair and incision coming from the impressive Steven Pienaar, Mikel Arteta and Russian Lad Dinyar Bilyaletdinov. In attack, in Louis Saha and Yakubu they have 2 players who, injury permitting, could score 20 goals a season. Their resurgence in the 2nd half of the season (in the 2010 table, they are 3rd) was built mainly on an excellent home record of 11-6-2, as well as developing a handy knack of scoring late goals- 21 of their 60 league goals were scored in the last 15 minutes of games.

What will work against them is the continuing splashing of the petrodollars by other sides, but as long as they can stay clear of injuries, then with 1 or 2 additions (more on them in a minute) they can better last season's 8th place finish

Sticking-my-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 6th

How they'll cope with the new home-grown rule: Well, seeing as you ask, they might be a bit short. Hibbert, Jagielka, Neville, Baines, Osman, Vaughan and Anichebe are their only current homegrown players (Jack Rodwell is not yet 21, and therefore does not count as 1 of the required 8). Don't be surprised to see them linked with a loan move for David Bentley

Bet: Everton to finish in the top 6 @7/4 with Stan James

Shifty's Premier League Season Review Part 2

Blackburn Rovers
What I Said: Didn't lose many games, playing a "pragmatic" style. If they can find a regular source of goals, mid-table beckons. Sam Allardyce's side have alos finished bottom of the disciplinary table in 4 of the last 5 seasons
What Actually Happened: Finished 10th, despite not having a single player reach double figures in the league. Even more surprisingly, though, they finished 8th in the disciplinary table. 2 fewer yellow cards and, if Fulham beat Atletico Madrid tomorrow night, they'd be in the Europa League!

Birmingham City
What I Said: Expect low-scoring, binary games. If they can keep a few clean sheets, they look the best-placed of the newly-promoted teams to stay up
What Actually Happened: Stayed up comfortably in 9th, after a 15-match unbeaten run during the winter. 20 of 38 games saw under 2.5 goals, with Joe Hart in goals keeping 10 clean sheets (Maik Taylor managed one against Man Citeh). Ran out of steam a bit near the end of the season, though- Alex Mcleish will need to strengthen in order to avoid the onset of Second-Season syndrome

Bolton Wanderers
What I Said: Should be safe from relegation, but hard to see them challenging for a top 10 place. Ho hum
What Actually Happened: Finished 14th after an unremarkable season. Ho hum

Burnley
What I Said: Much will depend on whether their veterans can cope with the demands of the Premier League. Any side travelling to Turf Moor not fully on their game can expect to be turned over- expect some open games, with over 2.5 goals a bet to be considered
What Actually Happened: 24 defeats from 38 games tells us that their veterans did not cope, depsite some early-season scalps being claimed at Turf Moor. 23 of 38 games saw over 2.5 goals

Chelsea
What I Said: Expect either the Premier League title, the Champions League, or Ancelotti to be sacked
What Actually Happened: Premier League title was won, Jose Mourinho came back to send them meekly out of the Champions League, and Ancelotti's job looks safe as. An ageing squad will need a bit of refreshing in order to challenge again, though. Any new signings should introduce John Terry to their wives with extreme caution

Everton
What I Said: They may struggle to match last season's 5th place without 1 or 2 additions, but should be close to that position. European success is the one thing lacking from David Moyes' CV if he is to be considered a credible successor to Sir Alex Ferguson
What Actually Happened: An atrocious start (losing 6-1 at home to Arsenal, going on 66-1) and rotten luck with injuries hampered Everton's start to the season, but a strong second half of the season saw them finish 8th- if Fulham win the Europa League, then they will qualify for the Europa League through the Fair Play League. You heard it here first. Look up the Premier League disciplinary table.

Everton v Manchester United, Saturday 20th February

My Thoughts

In a rare break from tradition, this writer is again writing up his own team in their lunchtime trip to Goodison Park. It's a fixure in which they have a great record, with Everton only winning once in the last 15 meetings between the sides. Both sides go into this game in good form- United are, as they have done so often in the past, pushing on in the second half of the season, while Everton have recovered from a dreadful start to the season, and have only lost to their Merseyside rivals in the league since November.

The Verdict
United's past record against Everton simply cannot be ignored, nor can the form of Wayne Rooney, but Everton themselves cannot be discounted, especially after their 2-1 victory over Chelsea recently. Although United's track record in this fixture is excellent, there's never much between the two sides at Goodison (only once since 1998 has United's winning margin been more than 1 goal), and another close match seems likely on Saturday.

The Bet
Manchester United to win outright are available at 5/6 with Blue Square, which is maybe just a tiny bit short. Consequentially, Manchester United 2X (which looks the safest bet in the outright result markets) will also be rather short, and unlikely to be much better that 2/9. One also must surely consider Wayne Rooney on the anytime scorer market- he's in the form of his life, and if Sir Alex Ferguson is considering resting him, then he'll surely wait for Tuesday's game at home to West Ham or next Sunday's Carling Cup Final- at 11/8 with Boylesports.

Liverpool v Everton, Saturday 6th February

My Thoughts

Both sides go into this Merseyside derby in decent form- Liverpool unbeaten in 6 league games (not including their shambolic FA Cup exit against Reading), while Everton are unbeaten since the reverse fixture in November. However, it would be unwise to read too much into that stat- while Everton have generally looked impressive (most notably in their 2-2 draw at Arsenal, a match which even Arsene Wenger admitted they deserved the win, and in their 2-0 swatting aside of man citeh), Liverpool are still not playing with the sort of fluency and penetration that they are capable of, as away draws at Stoke and Wolves proved.

The Verdict
Betting on Liverpool this season has been something one would do only if one was mentally incapacitated, as they lurch from one dismal performance to another. While their home record this season (8-2-2, winning their last 4 in the league) is reasonably good, those two defeats came against Arsenal and Aston Villa, and on current form one could argue that Everton are of the same calibre of these two sides. While their league record at anfailed is poor (their last win there was in the 1999/2000 season) they did have the upper hand in derbies last season, drawing 1-1 twice away from home, and with new signing Landon Donovan making an instant impression, they can extend their unbeaten run against a Liverpool side still without Fernando Torres.

The Bet
I'm at work, so odds will follow tonight. Back Everton outright if you're feeling brave, otherwise I'd recommend Everton 2X. For Liverpool, Steven Gerrard will surely be relied upon to carry the team. He's gone a while without a goal, but will surely want to impress if there's a sniff of the England captaincy being available again- with Alberto Aquilani starting to take the creative pressure off him, he could be considered on the anytime scorer market

Arsenal v Everton prices

There's been no word of this game being called off so far, so here are the prices for the bets recommended:

Arsenal to win outright: best price 2/5 general
Over 2.5 goals: best price 4/5 with Paddy Power
Aaron Ramsey anytime scorer: best price 7/2 with Extrabet

Arsenal v Everton, Saturday 9th January

My Thoughts

Given the current wintry weather that be affecting these here isles, this game may not even go ahead. But nonetheless, this writer's going for writing up the game, and preparing as if the game will be taking place- after all, it's what Arsene Wenger and David Moyes will be doing, isn't it?

The Verdict
Assuming the game does go ahead, there can be no denying that Everton have a real task on their hands to get anything out of this game. Despite recent improvement (unbeaten in their last 5 league games, although 4 of those were draws), Everton are still nowhere near as tough a proposition as they were the last 2 seasons, when they were very much Best of the Rest in 5th. It's extremely tempting to conclude that they still have not fully recovered after being utterly destroyed 6-1 on the opening day at home to, yep, you guessed it, Arsenal. Their away record (2-2-5) befits that of mid-table stragglers, and a lack of available strikers means that they will struggle to improve their average of 1.33 goals scored per away game this season.

Arsenal, on t'other hand, are playing majestically, swatting aside almost all comers in December - a 1-1 draw away to Burnley the only blip on an otherwise perfect league record for December. Last Sunday's FA Cup tie at West Ham produced another win, this time 2-1, but what was intriguing was that the Gunners were 1-0 down with 12 minutes remaining, yet were able to show what many lazy pundits call The Mark Of Champions, which is the ability to score late goals to win games from losing positions. This writer always thought that The Mark Of Champions was Premier League Winners Medals, such as those adorning the hairy chest of Ryan Giggs.

Arsenal's stats this season are almost as ridiculously good as Barcelona's, which I guess is kind of what Arsene Wenger was aiming for when he changed his side's shape this season- an average of 3.11 goals per home league game, 51 in total scored so far this season, and goals raining in from all parts of the team. It might not be 6-1 again, but expect another comfortable win for Arsenal.

The Bet
Usual banter here, folks- I'm at work, so will get odds put up tonight. Arsenal outright are unlikely to be much better that 2/5, so best check out some other markets. Given the sheer number of goals they score, and the continued absence of some of Everton's key defenders, over 2.5 goals has to be worth a look- also think about a cheeky punt on Aaron Ramsey anytime scorer- with Fabregas set for another week or 2 out, Ramsey is a probable starter (best wait until the starting XIs are confirmed before placing the bet) in an advanced central midfield position

I'm still calling it UEFA CUP Thursday

Ahoy-ahoy, and welcome to my write-up of this week's UEFA Cup fixtures. Last night was something of a mixed bag in terms of results for UK teams; Fiorentina beating Liverpool 2-0 (wish I'd seen that coming; Fiorentina were 3/1 outright), Arsenal eventually triumphing over an Antonis Nikopolidis-inspired Olympiakos 2-0, and Rangers being given a lesson in counter-attacking football (David Weir was clearly affected by the loss of his wife, who threw herself infront of the King's horse in the Derby. We're very sorry for your loss, Davie. And move on)

Moving on then, expect some of the following to happen (again, odds to follow):

• Everton to beat BATE Borisov
• Dinamo Bucuresti to beat Panathinaikos
• FC Twente to beat Steaua Bucuresti
• Galatasaray to beat Sturm Graz
• AS Roma to beat CSKA Sofia
• Sporting CP to beat Hertha Berlin

Wonder if Davie would like a pen?

It's Thursday. But it's not just any old Thursday....

...It's UEFA Cup Thursday! (This writer will still be calling it thus. I'm not falling for any UEFA rebranding exercise). Given that this is the first round of matches in this season's main competition, I felt that it was time to share my views on this week's matches, as well as my tips for the outright winners.

In tonight's matches, have a think about backing the following:

• Ajax to beat Timisoara (best price 1/3 with Ladbrokes)
• AS Roma to beat Basel (best price 11/13 with expekt.com)
• Hertha Berlin to beat Ventspils (best price 2/7 with Blue Square)
• Valencia to beat Lille (best price 13/10 with expekt.com). This writer will be having some of this bet
• Athletic Bilbao to beat Austria Wien (best price 4/9 with Betfred)
• Everton to beat AEK Athens (best price 4/7 with Skybet)
• Werder Bremen to beat Nacional (best price 5/6 with Ladbrokes)
• Lazio and Red Bull Salzburg to draw (best price 16/5 with bet365. This writer thought Lazio were utter garbage on Saturday against Juventus)
• Partizan Belgrade to beat Toulouse (best price 21/10 with Stan James)
• PSV Eindhoven to beat Sparta Prague (best price 6/4 with totesport)
• Steaua Bucharest to beat FC Sheriff Tiraspol (best price 4/9 with Blue Square)

There ye go, folks. Previews for the weekend games, along with a possible new feature, to follow. Enjoy

Shifty's Season Preview Part 4 of oh jeebus I'm pushing it to have them all on by Saturday afternoon

Everton

Last season was Everton's strongest for many years: 5th place, reaching the FA Cup Final and bloodying the noses of all those above them. David Moyes' stock grows with each passing day, and one cannot help but admire his steely resolution in his desire to keep Joleon Lescott. The retention of Lescott, along with all their other key players, give Evertonians reason to believe they can compete near the top again. Hope will still remain that Moyes can add to his squad in terms of quantity: it will be intriguing to see just how well Everton perform in the Europa League this season: European success is the last box that Moyes needs to check if he is to be considered as Sir Alex Ferguson's successor, a role that many have tipped him for.

Verdict: Last season, Everton keeper Tim Howard set a club record 15 league clean sheets. Retaining their key players should give them a platform to build on this, however (I had to put a however in somewhere) one cannot help but feel that they will struggle to match last season's achievements without 1 or 2 additions, particularly upfront: Jo looks a shrewd addition in loan, but will Saha and Yakubu stay fit? They should be close to last season's 5th place finish

The Fulham Football Club

It's hard to think of anyone who actually dislikes this quaint, tidy club. Last season they were superb, qualifying for the Europa League (in which they have already comfortably dispatched Lithuanian side FK Vetra) as a result of finishing 7th. Crucial to their hopes will be maintaining last season's excellent defensive record, and crucial to this will be the retention of 18ft 7 centre-back Brede Hangeland. A lot will again be expected of keeper Mark Schwarzer, while the likes of Clint Dempsey, Andrew Johnson and Danny Murhph will be expected to source and score goals, while Bobby Zamora simply has to improve on last season's meagre tally of 2 league goals. Reinforcements have arrived in the forms of right-back Stephen Kelly and midfielders Bjorn Helge Riise and Kagiso Dikgacoi (I'm going to award myself a Gold Star for spelling that right) (at the time of writing, Damien Duff was mooted as a possible arrival), but one suspects that 1 or 2 more may be needed if Fulham are going to be able to compete in the Premier League and the Europa League.

Verdict: This writer's gut instinct says mid-table obscurity. Retaining Hangeland is critical to their hopes, but they will face even more intense competition to make last season's 7th place

Hull City are still in the Premier League. No, really

Despite a horrific 2nd half of season nosedive that a drunken pilot would be disappointed with, Hull City somehow kept themselves in the Premier League. Phil Brown will be acutely aware of his side's desperate need for improvement, given that he does not want to go home. "This is the best trip I've ever been on", he says. Quite.
The Tigers have made a few interesting signings: it will be fascinating to see how US international striker Jozy Altidore adapts to life in the Premier League: fast, strong, and with a powerful shot, he could be tailor made for the Premier League, once he gets over the language barrier between English and East Yorkshire. Stoke midfielder Seyi Olofinjana will offer bite in midfield, and slightly more mobility than George Boateng, while expect Stephen Hunt to furiously buzz around on the wing. Hull could probably still do with a right-back, though, given the departure of Sam Ricketts. The early season fixture list has been kind to Hull, with many winnable games in the opening weeks (remember, they were the only side last season to remain unbeaten from trips to Stamford Bridge, a field and the Emirares). They will need to start in a similar manner to last season if they are to survive.

Verdict: Phil Brown divides opinion unlike most other Premier League managers. While he is idolised on Humberside, so is the Greek god Poseidon, with local teenage girls regularly sacrificing their 1st born child to him. Others are sceptical of Brown, complaining about his lack of charisma and control over the econo...oh, wait a minute, wrong Brown. Phil Brown will need to demonstrate all his managerial skills (maybe put in a call to his mate Sir Alex, Fraizer Campbell and Manucho have both impressed on loan in the past) in order to keep the Tigers roaring in the Premier League. And he might just do it.

Everton v Chelsea, Saturday 30th May

My Thoughts

This match looks intriguing on a number of different levels: Manager of the Year v Manager of the 2nd half of the season, the best Everton side for many years with an opportunity to win a trophy, Chelsea seeking to avoid ending the season trophyless.

Let's get into those statistics. FA Cup Finals over the last 15 years have produced a total of 30 goals, an average of 2 per game- 11 of the last 15 finals have featured under 2.5 goals. Given that the two league meetings between the two sides this season both ended 0-0, a low-scoring match is a distinct possibility. In the last 15 years, Chelsea have appeared in 5 finals, winning the trophy in 1997, 2000 and 2007, despite scoring just 4 goals in those 5 final appearances. Everton's last final appearance saw them win the cup in 1995, winning 1-0.

The Verdict
All the statistics point towards a low-scoring game- Chelsea conceded just 24 league goals this season, and Tim Howard in goals for Everton equalled a club record for clean sheets. Neither side will lack motivation- Guus Hiddink will want something tangible in the form of a trophy from his work at Chelsea, and David Moyes at Everton will no doubt feel the exact same way.
However, this writer expects Chelsea, and their big-game players, to show up and edge this one. Just

The Bet
1-0 Chelsea will more than likely be a popular scoreline in various bookmakers outlets on Saturday morning, and can be backed at a best price of 6/1 with Betfred

Everton v Manchester City, Saturday 25th April

My Thoughts

David Moyes has once again done an excellent job this season with Everton: FA Cup finalists, firmly established in the top 6, and responsible for one of the signings of the season in Marouane Fellaini (how he wasn't on the shortlist for Young Player of the Year I'm not sure. The only possible reason I can think of is folk not realising he's only 21. I'm going to avoid going into a rant about Aaron Lennon and get back to previewing the game at hand). Mark Hughes, on t'other hand, has faced different pressures to those faced by Moyes, but has done an equally impressive job, with the team's expensive individuals beginning to show signs of forming a cohesive unit, although they are still woefully inconsistent. Their home form is strong (11-0-6), but their away form this season has been a real let-down (1-5-10), which has led to question marks being raised on the contribution away from home of the likes of Robinho. Everton have not lost in their last 8 at Goodison Park, winning their last 4, with City winless in their last 14 Premier League away games. These stats would tend to point to a home win, however Everton looked very tired towards the end of their 0-0 draw (itself a very respectable result, sure to provide a confidence boost ahead of the FA Cup Final), and with this match coming just 3 days after, David Moyes may well be inclined to freshen his side up. However, Everton's squad is one of the smallest in the league, and with Jo and Lars Jacobsen both going off injured against Chelsea, that squad may be stretched even further.

The Verdict
Both these sides will have one eye on 7th placed West Ham. City can still conceivably catch the Hammers and claim Europa League football for next season, while Everton's 8 point lead over Gianfranco Zola's side should be enough to keep them in the top 6. With Everton no doubt having thoughts about the FA Cup final, City may well have a chance to break their awful run away from home this season and claim a result here. Draw

The Bet
Back the draw (best price 5/2 general). Or, for a little bit of extra interest, Robinho, who looks to be rediscovering his form, having found the net against West Brom last week, can be backed at 11/4 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Avoid backing any Everton goalscorers until the team sheets are published, due to the possibility of David Moyes making changes