The World Cup So Far Part 1

After the first week of matches, here are a few things we've learned from South Africa 2010 so far:

The Contenders- South American sides on top
At this stage, the most likely winners of the tournament are Argentina and Brazil. Diego Maradona's side possess such potency going forward that, even with some slight uncertainties over their defence (one has to wonder whether or not makeshift right-back Jonas Gutierrez would cope with an Arjen Robben up against him, with only Javier Mascherano likely to offer any help from midfield), they could simply outscore teams with their array of attacking talent. Brazil have the ominous look of a team that, unlike previous Brazil sides, can sacrifice flair and grind out results even when they are not playing well. They have no such doubts at right-back, with Maicon likely to be a key attacking outlet. Also among the favourites at this stage are Germany (despite their loss to Serbia, they should still make at least the quarter-finals) and Holland, who, like Brazil, have added extra steel and organisation to their undoubted attacking talent- they should also be able to add Arjen Robben to their side in the later stages.

Of the other heavyweights, Spain have work to do. Along with the Barcelona side from whom some of this seleccion is drawn, their playing style has been found out. Jose Mourinho and Ottmar Hitzfeld have both shown that, by congesting the centre of the park when not in possession and forcing the opposition into the wide areas, and by avoiding trying to retain possesstion in the centre and by moving the ball quickly to the front, Spain and Barcelona can be stopped. Vicente Del Bosque seems reluctant to change his ways, although he may have to consider starting with Jesus Navas on the right wing to try and beat Honduras, who will no doubt copy the Hitzfeld model. France are heading for a disgraceful early exit and deservedly so. A similar fate may well await England- even if they make it out of their group, a tough 2nd round tie awaits them against either Germany, a vibrant Ghana or a steely Serbia. Italy, even taking into account their tradition of starting a tournament slowly. don't look anything like potential winners- quarter-finals at best for them on current form.

Of the other sides, Chile, Uruguay and Mexico have all looked impressive- it would be no surprise to see at least 1 of them in the quarter-finals. Chile's madcap 3-3-1-3 formation, combined with some slick, accurate passing at high tempo made them a joy to watch against Honduras, with Alexis Sanchez on the right of the 3 man attack particularly impressive. Uruguay were solid if unspectacular in their opener against France, but were a class above against South Africa- coach Oscar Tabarez moving Diego Forlan into the trequartista position working beautifully, as Forlan ran the show, continually finding space behind South Africa's flat midfield (more on that later). Mexico were equally impressive with their fluid 4-3-3 system, full of neat passing and movement, with Guillermo Franco the pivot in attack off whom the livewire Giovani Dos Santos and Carlos Vela can operate.

The Formations- The Death of 4-4-2
As I mentioned before, the South American sides have had the edge so far- but intriguingly, one thing that all the contenders mentioned have in common is that none of them (Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Holland, Mexico, Chile and Uruguay) play 4-4-2. Argentina play a quasi-4-3-3, which almost becomes a diamond 4-4-2 when Messi drops away from Higuain and Tevez. Having Mascherano in the DMC positions allows Di Maria the freedom to push on as an orthodox left-winger, with Veron (or Maxi Rodriguez) playing more centrally. Brazil play a fairly regulation 4-2-3-1, with 2 holding midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo allowing Maicon and Michel Bastos bombing forward from the full-back positions. Germany also play 4-2-3-1, although their 2 central midfield players (Schweinsteiger and Khedira) are given more license to push forward- in actual fact, when Phillip Lahm pushes on, their system almost becomes a back 3, with the more defensively-minded Holger Badstuber sitting back and moving more centrally, with right-sided centre-back Arne Friedrich covering Lahm. For Holland, replace the 2 DMCs with Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong, until they both get suspended. Mexico, as aforementioned, play a very fluid 4-3-3, with the emphasis being on moving the ball quickly and accurately, with width being provided by Carlos Salcido from left-back, and Efrain Juarez from the right. Chile's 3-3-1-3 formation has made them arguably the best team to watch so far- their game against Spain should be a treat, while Uruguay moved from a back 3 against France to a 4-3-1-2 against South Africa designed to allow Diego Forlan to dictate the game against a flat 4-4-2.

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group G

This looks set to be one of the most interesting, and high-scoring, groups of the World Cup. Brazil are, along with Spain, favourites to lift the trophy on July 11. They should qualify comfortably from a group that also contains their B team (Portugal), Sven Goran Eriksson's Ivory Coast, and Kim Jong-Il's North Korea.

Brazil
Dunga's outfit topped the South American qualification section, and won last summer's Confederations Cup in South Africa. Their array of attacking talent is as impressive as ever- Sevilla frontman Luis Fabiano will lead the line, with midfield support likely to come from Benfica's industrious wideman Ramires on the right, Robinho on the left and Kaka in the middle in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with backup being provided in the form of Elano, Julio Baptista and Nilmar- Lyon forward Michel Bastos, who has been deputising at left-back, could also be pushed back into his natural position. But this Brazil team lacks the flair, the joie de vivre, the kamikaze attacking instincts of previous Brazilian sides. Dunga, very much a destroyer himself, will send his side out with 2 defensive midfielders in Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo- both players' remit does not extend into the opposing half, and neither has the range of passing to be able to open the game up. Expect Maicon to get the nod at right-back over Dani Alves to provide an extra outlet on the right, but no-one has made the left-back position their own. Expect them to be solid in defence nonetheless- Inter's Julio Cesar has established himself as 1st choice, and, unusually for Brazilian keepers, he's actually good, although he's a slight inury doubt for the start of the tournament. Should he miss out, Spurs' Heurelho Gomes has proved himself to be an able deputy. They should progress comfortably enough from this group (the quality of the opposition they face is not of a sufficient standard to turn them over), however they could struggle to break down a side who can contain their front 4. They also face a probable 2nd round match against a Chile side who could simply outscore them, or even worse Spain.

Portugal
It's unfair to describe this lot as Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. After all, they have a top-class goalkeeper in Eduardo of Sporting Braga, the defence features Chelsea pair Paulo Ferreira and Ricardo Carvalho, Porto's midfield anchorman Raul Meireles.....you know what, this is just Cristiano Ronaldo + 10 others. Coach Carlos Queiroz struggled to get the best out of Ronaldo during qualifying, with CR9 scoring a total of 0 times as Portugal limped through qualifying, needing a play-off victory over Bosnia. There are doubts over the fitness over Real Madrid central defender Pepe (who has been bewilderingly deployed in midfield), and, Ronaldo besides, there is a dearth of top-class players. Queiroz's attacking options were further limited this week with Nani being ruled out of the tournament after injuring himself performing an acrobatic overhead kick in training (no, really)- add to this concerns over the fading influence of Deco (against Brazil, Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo will surely have him for breakfast) and, Ronaldo apart, a lacklustre front line (apart from THAT howitzer of a free-kick for Porto against Inter a few years back, Hugo Almeida has done little of note), and an earlyish exit beckons. It's hard to see them getting beyond the last 16

Ivory Coast
The Sven Goran Eriksson World Tour makes its latest stop-off with Ivory Coast for this summer, before a probable move to a biggish European club. His squad arrive in South Africa after a poor showing in the African Nations Cup earlier this year, having been knocked out in the quarter-finals by a so-so Algeria side. Eriksson has had little time to stamp his authority on a side that possesses real strength and quality in some positions, but is desperately lacking in others, so much so that Hibs centre-back Souleymane Bamba is a likely starter alongside Kolo Toure. Behind a positionally clueless, foul-o-matic clown and Souleymane Bamba is Boubacar Barry, who has looked out of his depth at this level. The midfield is strong defensively and physically, with Didier Zokora and Yaya Toure among the best in La Liga, however there is a real lack of creativity- while Zokora and Toure are both excellent at winning the ball and are competent ball-carriers, neither of them have an extensive passing range. In attack, much (if not all) depends on the fitness of Didier Drogba- while the likes of Kader Keita, Salomon Kalou, Aruna Dindane and Gervinho can all play just off a frontman (or as wide attackers in a 4-3-3), none of them can lead the line with the physicality and hold-up ability of Drogba. With Drogba likely to miss what looks like being the crucial opening game against Portugal, the Ivorians may suffer a similar fate as they did in 2006, where a strong, well-fancied team were drawn in a "Group of Death" with Holland and Argentina, and were edged out.

North Korea
Underdogs? Yes. Underestimated? For sure. North Korea have been written off as mere cannon fodder, set for a gubbing in all 3 games. They have already gone down in World Cup folklore for their fantastically audacious attempt to increase their attacking options at the World Cup by registering striker Kim Myong-Won as their 3rd goalkeeper. They came through almost 2 years of qualifying matches to get to the tournament, conceding just 5 goals in the process. Their draw is undeniably tough, although facing such strong sides may actually help them: during qualifying, even against lesser lights such as Turkmenistan and Saudi Arabia, coach Kim Jong-Hun set his side out with 5 across the back, looking to utilise striker Jong Tae-Se's pace and power on the counterattack. Against sides with the attacking prowess of Brazil and Portugal, Shifty's Coaching Manual states that the best way to neutralise attack-minded sides is to station 9 or 10 men deep, behind the ball. There will be no expectations or criticisms of the side from home (dissent isn't generally tolerated by Kim Jong-Il), and so anything they get will be a bonus. The team have been together for longer than any other in South Africa (domestic-based players, which is most of them, have been given the last few months off league duty to prepare as a national squad) and have a great spirit about them. Recent friendly results have been encouraging (including a 2-2 draw against fellow qualifiers, and disciples of defensive play, Greece) and, should Kim Jong-Il allow it, many players will harbour aspirations of a move to Europe (North Korean- Russian diplomatic relations are said to be good). They may well struggle to avoid being tonked by Brazil in their opening game but, as long as they can bounce back from that, an off-colour Portugal and a Drogba-less Ivory Coast could be in for a nasty shock. You have not seen the last of North Korea

The bets for Group G:
Brazil to win 9 group stage points: best price 13/5 with Bodog
North Korea to qualify for round 2: best price 16/1 with bwin

England v Brazil, Saturday 14th November

My Thoughts

England play Brazil this evening in a friendly match in Qatar, as they try to win the World Cup in more ways than one: a match against one of the very best sides in the world is sure to provide a thorough examination of their credentials for 2010, while delegates from their 2018 bid will no doubt be making representations to local businessman Mohmammed Bin Hamman, whose Saturday job happens to be FIFA vice-president. It's also more than reasonable to suspect that the FA's coffers will have been boosted by playing this match.

The Verdict
International friendlies are notoriously difficult to judge, with the likelihood that both sides will start considerably short of full-strength, and then make a plethora of substitutions during the game. England in particular have lost a number of first-choice players for this match, and this match will therefore be an opportunity to evaluate the likes of Wayne Bridge, Darren Bent, Ben Foster and James Milner at the highest level. Brazil, meanwhile, should still be able to field a strong side, given the depth in talent at Dunga's disposal. The Selecao were impressive in the Confederations Cup this summer, despite not appearing 100% convincing in defence (but if they were, they wouldn't be Brazil), and with the likes of Luis Fabiano and Robinho in attack, they should have too much for the Two Lions (it would be 3, but they're missing so many of their first-choice players) in Doha this evening.

The Bet
Brazil are available at a general 11/10, which represents great value. Alternatively, these two sides' games recently have tended to produce a few goals, so over 2.5 goals avaliable at a general 4/5 is worth a shout, as is Luis Fabiano to score anytime at 15/8 with Coral, although it might be an idea to wait until the starting line-ups are confirmed before placing any goalscorer bets