Weekend Betting, Saturday 21st January

Big weekend of soccer matches coming up (although, to be honest, they're all going to be big now. We're getting towards the part of the season where the football actually gets good), let's have a look at what we can have a punt on:

• Newcastle away at Fulham firstly. The Geordies are currently shorn of 2 key men in Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba, along with new number 9 Papiss Demba Cisse. However, despite an arguably poor performance they still had more than enough to see of QPR last weekend. Fulham are wildly inconsistent this season, and were extremely poor last time out away at Blackburn. An improvement at home will be hoped for, but Newcastle are well worth backing, with 3/1 generally available


• Stoke at home to West Brom has home win written all over it. West Brom's early-mid season form has tailed off badly, with Woy Hodgson's side winless in the league since early December and facing a Stoke side against whom they have a horrible recent record- 2 draws and 7 defeats for West Brom in their last 9 meetings. With the Europa League put to bed until the middle of next month, Stoke have recovered their league form, and are available at 11/10 to triumph with Hills. Get on that if you know what's good for you


• As regular readers will know, I like a bit of trend-spotting. I like to find a reliable bet with good returns and stick it on most weeks. Last season, that was backing Norwich to win most games, which itself replaced Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. This season has yet to produce such a bet, apart from, well..er...Norwich again. The on-form Canaries are available at 5/1 to pull off a win against a slightly unconvincing Chelsea, shorn currently of Didier Drogba. They are not, though, without a goal threat, with Juan Mata adapting well to English football. He's 2/1 to score anytime today against a Norwich defence that has ye to keep a clean sheet this season


• Outside the Premier League, there are a plethora of teams at backable odds today, among them Barnsley, Birmingham, Bournemouth and Carlisle

Tuck in

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th April

Well, with all the blogging about next weekend's debauchery going on, I thought I'd better squeeze in (or should that be squeeze out) a look at some of this weekend's games:

• There looks like being only 1 winner of Chelsea v Tottenham tomorrow teatime, and it's not Tottenham. Paddy Power will give you 8/15 on the home win, which would see Chelsea continue their recent good form which has seen them overhaul Arsenal in 2nd place. Tottenham can't be fancied, given their recent form- 1 win in their last 8 games in all competitions. Tottenham may also have one of their main attacking threats somewhat subdued- with Benoit Assou-Ekotto injured, Gareth Bale may have to drop back to left-back. Add this to the breaking of Fernando Torres' scoring duck, and the complete lack of form of any of Tottenham's strikers, and Chelsea to Win to Nil holds some appeal at 9/5 with Unibet


• Blackpool v Stoke looks a tough one to call. Stoke appear not to have suffered any sort of hangover from their FA Cup Semi Final dismantling of Bolton, having drawn at Aston Villa and beaten Wolves at home since. Having said that, one can make a case for Blackpool, who won the reverse fixture 2-0 and will create chances against anyone. Therefore, the bet to be on is Both Teams to Score at 8/13 with Stan James, a bet that has a 100% success rate at Bloomfield Road this season


• The remainder of the Premier League games on Saturday (and probably Blackpool v Stoke) all look distinctly drawy- this could be an opportunity for a rather speculative punt. Any combination of 4 of those games all to end in draws will generate odds of approximately 95/1. Have a go

EVERYBODY GTF (GET TO FALKIRK) TOMORROW. MON THE STAGGIES!

Shifty's Season Preview Part 1

It's that time of year again: Season Preview time! Here's part 1 of a few, it'll probably be a mad dash to get them all on in time for next Saturday, but I'll manage it. Hopefully.

Stoke City

Right, hold on a minute here, you're thinking. Why not start with Arsenal, as per the alphabet, you ask. Well, as I hinted at earlier, this has sprung up on me quickly, and to start with Arsenal and go alphabetically would probably not give me enough time to properly write up the chances of the Ts and the Ws of the league.

So we begin with Stoke, who, after last season's 11th place finish, have established themselves in the league, and also the shinpads of many of its players (get well soon, Aaron Ramsey). Their summer transfer activity has so far been notable for its complete non-existence, although that could change if boss Tony Pulis finds a player with a throw-in akin to that of Rory Delap who can actually contribute in open play. Transfer speculation linking them with Carlton Cole is said to be wide of the mark, though.

Their playing "style" is well-documented, and despite managing an improvement from 12th place in 08/09 to 11th last season, the football didn't improve- don't count on that changing this term unless Pulis plans a late swoop for a ball-playing midfielder more comfortable in possession than the likes of Salif Diao, Delap, Amdy Faye or Glenn Whelan. One area they did improve on last season was their away form- while just 4 away wins is still nothing to shout about, it nevertheless represents progress.

While their defence is hard-as-nails, marshalled by a rejuvenated Thomas Sorensen (who developed a handy knack of saving penalties, which helped cover the backsides of a defence who gave away far too many of them), they simply must score more than last season's meagre total of 34 goals with winger Matthew Etherington top scorer with just 5. Etherington, like Sorensen, has found a new lease of life at the Britannia Stadium, and providing Pulis can find a new frontman (or get more goals out of his current motley crew of James Beattie, Dave Kitson, Mamady Sidibe and Ricardo Fuller) to get on the end of Etherington's deliveries, they should comfortably survive again without ever threatening the top 8.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 11th

How will they cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Pulis' squad largely contains British players

Bet: Worst disciplinary record @ 5/1 with Victor Chandler. They'll battle it out with Blackburn (literally on October 2) for this somewhat dubious honour

Shifty's Season Review Part 4

Manchester United
What I Said: They have every reason to belive that they can claim a 4th European Cup and a 19th Premier League title. Expect Ben Foster to be gradually phased in as 1st choice goalkeeper
What Actually Happened: Missed out on both titles, with only the Carling Cup being successfully defended. Poor form early in the season pushed Foster out of contention for the England squad, and may lead to him being one of a number of players through the Old Trafford exit door this summer

Portsmouth
What I Said: With minimal investment in an already limited squad, expect Pompey to be near the bottom come January, and praying for another miraculous escape
What Actually Happened: The financial situation deteriorated to such an extent that Pompey became the first Premier League club to be placed into administration, with the subsequent 9-point deduction merely serving to confirm what already looked like certain relegation. They at least went down with a fight, with some decent end-of-season form giving them a glimmer of hope for the FA Cup Final

Stoke City
What I Said: It won't be pretty, and may require a couple more shrewd signings, but expect Stoke to survive again
What Actually Happened: Dear sweet Jeebus it wasn't pretty (just like Aaron Ramsey's leg), even with the addition of Tuncay, but Stoke comfortably survived, notching up 2 more points than they did last season. This is a crucial summer for Tony Pulis and his side- how much ambition do they have, now that they have established themselves in the league? Will they look to play some more stylish football next season?

Sunderland
What I Said: A talented midfield and forward line (with potential for further investment in the squad in January) suggests that mid-table is very much achievable
What Actually Happened: Finished 13th after a consistently inconsistent season. Darren Bent's goals (many of them 1st, as previously reported here) not only won this writer a fair wad of cash over the season, but also got him into Fabio Capello's initial 30 man squad for the World Cup. Just 2 away wins in the league all season, though, sugest that there is still work for Steve Bruce to do

Tottenham Hotspur
What I Said: Spurs shouldn't concede too many once again, while strength in depth in midfield and attack suggests that a top-half finish is where they're heading
What Actually Happened: A great season saw Harry Redknapp's side finish 4th. They're still a long way off the level of those sides ahead of them, and demonstrated some worrying inconsistencies particularly against the smaller teams in the league (Stoke, Hull, Wolves and Burnley all took points off them), but they showed plenty of admirable qualities in trumping Man City, Aston Villa and Liverpool in the race for 4th

West Ham
What I Said: A quiet summer on the transfer market demonstrating Zola's faith in some talented youngsters
What Actually Happened: Never got going, and ended up in a relegation battle they seemed ill-equipped for. The January signing of Ilan proved to be of paramount importance, as the Hammers would have been in even more bother (only goal difference would have kept them ahead of Burnley) than they already were- it could be credibly argued that they were only saved by having 3 teams below them who were, let's be honest, pretty terrible. Zola's dismissal came as no real surprise

Wigan and Wolves both stayed up without ever looking like doing much more, but both did it in completely different ways. While Wolves plundered just 32 goals all season, and were generally pretty poor to watch, Wigan at least gave us some entertainment, and some remarkable scorelines. Home victories over Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were offset by some utter gubbings- three 4-0 losses (including one at Portsmouth!), a 5-0 loss at Old Trafford and of course 8-0 and 9-1 shellackings away at Chelsea and Spurs respectively

Stoke City v Arsenal, Saturday 27t February

My Thoughts

A notable clash in playing styles is set to take place on Saturday: Arsenal's array of continental short-arse stars will arrive at the Britannia intent on weaving their way through Stoke with endless precise, quick passing, with besuited Economics graduate Arsene Wenger masterminding it all from the touchline. Stoke, meanwhile, will look to outmuscle Arsenal, with a side packed full of 6 foot-odd homegrown musclemen (plus the brilliant Turkish international Tuncay), generally getting stuck in, going for the long-ball and shouting BULLY!. Leading them from the touchline will be the tracksuited, baseball-cap-wearing Tony Pulis. He's from Wales.

The Verdict
One of these teams is unbeaten in 2010, and saw off Manchester City in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron in midweek, as well as their opponents in this one 3-1 the last time they met. Yep, Stoke. 11 unbeaten, they gave an admittedly under-strength Arsenal side one hell of a bloody nose in their FA Cup meeting last month. They are extremely strong at home (6-4-3) for a side in mid-table and with only Manchester United having won with any sort of conviction at the Britannia this season (in fact, ever), Wenger's side will know that they're in for quite an evening. Arsenal's previous 2 trips to the Britannia have both ended not only in defeat, but a convincing outmuscling from Tony Pulis's men, and given Stoke's current form (plus Arsenal's less-than-convincing current form), it would be no surprise if Stoke got at least 1, if not 3, points from this one.

The Bet
On Wednesday evening, this writer placed a considerable sum of money on Stoke to win at a price of 4/1 with William Hill. After their victory over Manchester City, there's no way you''l get 4/1 on Saturday morning (continuing my experiment of pricing games myself, I actually had Stoke at 17/10, with Arsenal 13/8), so if you're looking to get on Stoke outright, get on it quickly. A safer bet would be Stoke 1X, which considering Stoke's home record of 6-3-4 exactly matches Arsenal's away record, should be seriously considered. The best bet to be on, though, is probably Half Time Draw, a bet that would have come in for Stoke on Wednesday night, and also in Arsenal's Champions Leage tie away at Porto last week.

Stoke City v Liverpool, Saturday 16th January

My Thoughts

Quick question: in all competitions, which of these two sides has lost more matches this season?

Answer: Liverpool. Wednesday's FA Cup defeat (if you watched the games, you'll know it couldn't exactly be considered a shock) at home to Reading was their 12th in all competitions so far this season, while Stoke have been vanquished on only 9 occasions thus far this season- a stat that few would have thought possible, never mind expected, after Liverpool's 4-0 win in the reverse fixture in August.

The Verdict
Stoke have a little bit of momentum behind them, having won their last 2 games, scoring 3 times against both Fulham and York City in The FA Cup Sponsored By Enron. Their physical, hoof-it-forward-for-the-frontman-to-chase-and-try-and-win-a-throw-in tactics are not exactly easy on the eye, but Tuncay is, and a home record so far of 5-2-3 is strong enough, and a continuation of it should see them survive comfortably, even without David James, after Tony Pulis pulled out of a possible loan deal for the 39 year old. Liverpool must travel to Stoke without Gerrard and Torres, and are likely to look to David N'Gog to try n'lead the n'frontline, and try and improve on an average 4-1-5 away record. Given Liverpool's depleted attack, and Stoke's good defensive record at the Brittania, don't expect a high-scoring game, and given the two sides' recent form, Stoke will certainly fancy their chances of getting a result. Draw

The Bet
Quite a few options here. The draw can be backed at a best price of 23/10 with totesport. Alternatively, Stoke 1X (also known as Double Chance Stoke/Draw) should be given serious consideration if you're torn between the draw and the home win, available at a best price of 3/4 with expekt.com, although this has been shortened a lot due to outward movement on Liverpool outright, who have gone from 4/7 (which was way too short) to 5/4, which is closer to where they should be. Also take a look at under 2.5 goals (Liverpool have been less than prolific away from home this season even with Gerrard and Torres, while Stoke have never scored a Premier League goal against Liverpool), which is available at a best price of 8/11 with Skybet, and for a slightly more speculative punt, expect a few fairly brutal taclkes coming in from both sets of players-it surely won't take long for the referee to put someone in the book, so stick a cheeky quid on Blue Square's offering at 5/6 that it will take less than 33 minutes

Graeme's Real Life Stupid Bet

This week I have taken a dual approach to gambling.

One pound, 2 bets, one considered, one retarded

So if you want to join me get down to the accumulator section at William Hill and fill out the following:

1. The Sensible Approach
It's a 50p treble on 3 draws in the following Premier League matches:
Stoke, Portsmouth and Wolves all to draw
50p wins £17.86

2. The Retarded Approach
It's a 50p accumulator on 9 teams chosen at random without any clear or concise thought:
Man Utd, Celtic, Swindon, Livingston, Walsall, Stockport, Millwall, Accrington Stanley and MK Dons to all win
50p pays out £138.37

Have fun gambling over the weekend and join me and Shifty in Nicky Tams on Friday night to buy him beers for his birthday

Stoke v Wigan Odds

As promised, here are the odds from the Stoke v Wigan game:

Stoke to win outright: best price 6/5 with Coral
Under 2.5 goals: best price 4/6 general

Stoke City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 12th December

My Thoughts

When the TV head honchos got hold of the fixture list at the start of this season, and were told to pick what games they wanted to show, it's difficult to imagine this game jumping off the list. Yet this game will be the lunchtime game tomorrow, which may (or may not) tempt this pundit to head for the pub. The recent fallout between the (allegedly) nude Stoke boss Tony Pulis and his star centre-forward James Beattie offers an interesting subplot to a match which should feature something of a clash of styles: Stoke's direct, physical approach has been well-documented, while under Roberto Martinez, Wigan play (or at least attempt to) a fluid 4-2-31 system, with lots of short, neat passing serving their angry, powerful and sometimes brilliant frontman Hugo Rodallega.

The Verdict
'Tis true that neither side goes into this one in the best of form: Stoke have just one win in their last 5 (and even that was at home to bottom side Portsmouth, who also had a penalty saved). WIgan also have just 1 win in 5, and their recent run also happens to include a 9-1 horsing away at Spurs. Add to that their poor away record in the league this season (2-0-5) and the likely abscences of midfield enforcer Hendry Thomas and goalkeeper Chris Kirkland, this pundit reckons that Stoke will edge this one.

The Bet
Stoke have scored just 13 goals in the league this season, the lowest total in the league, and despite Wigan's porous defence, it's difficult to see this one being full of goals, particularly given Stoke's decent defensive record (conceded 17 in the league this season). Therefore, this pundit will be backing Stoke outright, as well as having a look at under 2.5 goals (prices to follow this evening, I'm at work).

Tottenham v Stoke City, Saturday 24th October

My Thoughts

Tottenham have made a very impressive start to this season- only Manchester United and Chelsea, the two teams above them in the leage right now- have managed to beat Harry Redknapp's side, and it's no secret that Spurs' start to the season has been down to the form of their frontmen, with Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane all in fine goalscoring form, and all contributing to Spurs' total of 21 league goals so far, an average of 2.33 per game. However, question marks still linger over a defence which has only kept 1 Premier League clean sheet this season, and Redknapp will no doubt complain before Saturday's match about 1 or more of his cente-backs being out injured. Get your excuses in early, eh Harry?

Stoke have made a solid start to their Difficult Second Season. They currently reside in 9th place, although they are no more aesthetically pleasing than last season, with complementary neck braces still de rigeur at the Britannia Stadium. Their away record last season was woeful, and while this season they have managed 3 draws on their travels, Tony Pulis' side still face a very difficult task if they are to get anything from this one.

The Verdict
As previously stated, Stoke will make Spurs work for this one. Expect Stoke to favour the aerial route, and possibly just James Beattie (this writer must admit he is puzzled by the lack of "Beattie for England" calls) on his own up top, to try and work whatever makeshift defence Redknapp has spent £20 million on. However, expect Spurs' superior quality in midfield, and greater potency in atttack (even without the suspended Defoe) to eventually shine through and lead to a home win.

The Bet
Spurs are available outright at 2/5 with Blue Square. Due to Spurs' defensive record, it's difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, therefore a scorecast of 2-1 Spurs could be considered, especially as a tough, combative Stoke side are unlikely to let them walk this one

Stoke v Chelsea, Saturday 12th September

My Thoughts

Stoke have made a solid, if unspectacular start to this season, a start which has in many ways been a microcosm of their performance last season. Their defensive record, particularly at home, was the bedrock of their survival last season, and clean sheets in each of their last 3 matches bodes well. In terms of style of play (or rather lack of it), Stoke's opponents, Chelsea, are actually more similar than many people would have you believe- both are well-organised, difficult to break down, and tend not to play with much width across the midfield. Chelsea, with a fixture schedule that has been generous compared to that of some of their rivals, have started well under Carlo Ancelotti, with a maximum of 12 points from their opening 4 games.

The Verdict
One's first thoughts on seeing this game on the fixture list this weekend will most likely be "away win". And with good reason- Chelsea claimed a comfortable 2-0 victory at the Britannia last season. Stoke can point to claiming 4 points at the Britannia against the top 4 clubs last season, and have looked reasonably sound defensively so far this campaign, and could even cling to the hope that Ancelotti may be tempted to rest players after an international week with Porto to play on Tuesday, but this should be a fairly routine away win for Chelsea.

The Bet
At 2/5, Chelsea to win outright represents little value as a single. Therefore, under 2.5 goals is well worth a look- in 19 Stoke home league games last season, this bet would have come in 14 times, as well as in 4 of their 5 games so far this season

Well....

'Tis difficult to preview matches right now when there aren't any of any significance being played (last night's Confed Cup Final notwithstanding- my laptop broke, hence the lack of an in-depth preview), so right now, this writer is working hard (hahahaha) trying to find good bets for next season. I've already posted a few (Wolves to go down, Ipswich to win the Championship, Real to win La Liga or Pellegrino to be sacked- one is bound to happen), so here are another couple (more will follow over the next few weeks):

Premier League Bottom Half Market
Only William Hill have got odds upon this market so far, but there could still be value in a few teams. The likes of Burnley, Wolves and Birmingham will be expected to struggle (a good season for all 3 would constitute finishing 17th), while Hull and Stoke will be expected to suffer Second Season Syndrome, a condition that either side could greatly enhance by completing the rumoured signing of Michael Owen. As such, none of these sides are available at particularly tempting prices (Stoke are best priced at 1/9). However, some value could be had in Fulham (4/9), whose squad looks set to be stretched by Europa League football in much the same manner as Portsmouth's last season, and, like Portsmouth did last season, Fulham lack the funds to significantly strengthen. Should influential Norwegian centre-back Brede Hangeland depart, expect that price to shorten further. Another side who could find themselves 11th or lower are Tottenham (8/1). Harry Redknapp is set to sell approximately 937 members of his current squad, some with a proven track record in the Premier League, and will no doubt look to sign a plethora of players. Redknapp's transfer record is decidedly patchy, so should any of his signings (he has already been told he will have to sell before he buys, so the squad may well lack depth, and he hasn't had a decent young player come through in any of his sides since his West Ham days) turn out to be turkeys, expect to see the side fall, and 8/1 look ever more tempting.

Premier League Worst Disciplinary Record Market
This is one table that we can fairly safely rule out the big 4 from dominating. Last season, this was a market dominated by 3 sides, fairly predictably: Stoke (their physical, intimidating style saw them "top" the table, with 74 yellow cards and 5 red cards, although had Arsene Wenger been refereeing their games, at least 2 zeros would have to be added to those totals), Newcastle (so awful were they, defenders simply had to try and stop opposition forwards by any means necessary- many of their 8 red cards were simply desperate defenders hauling dowm opposition forwards who were clean through) and Blackburn (Sam Allardyce is now their manager. I don't think I need to say any more). Rovers in particular have added hard-as-nails French (I know that's a bit of an oxymoron) defender Gael Givet, and Stoke look set to persist with their somewhat primitive style, so expect those two to dominate again. At the moment, only Sky Bet have prices up, but those prices are appealing, with Stoke at 7/2 and Blackburn 9/2.

PS: I hope y'all backed Real Madrid when I first posted them for the Champions League at 10/1. They're now at a general 6/1