Portugal v Bosnia, Saturday 14th November

My Thoughts

For those of you who perhaps don't follow European football all that closely, you'll probably go into your local bookies on Saturday morning and think "home banker, surely. Portugal are ace and Bosnia are rubbish". Well, allow this writer to enlighten you. Bosnia have actually been good these last 18 months, finishing 2nd in their qualifying group behind Spain, and ahead of Euro 2008 semi-finalists Turkey (more about the woes of semi-finalists failing to qualify next time round later), with Wolfsburg stars Edin Dzeko (pictured) and Zvjezdan Misimovic (it's a good job I don't write these entries in Microsoft Word, otherwise the spellchecker would have just exploded) key to a qualifying campaign which saw them score (and concede) more goals than any of the other sides in the play-offs. Portugal, on the other hand, are not quite the force they were not so long ago. The stars of their World Youth Cup-winning side of the early 90s have long gone, and beleagured coach Carlos Queiroz has found that the likes of Simao, Raul Meireles and Helder Postiga are simply not of the same standard as Figo, Rui Costa and Fernando Couto. Add to that the absence of their one genuine world-class player, Cristiano Ronaldo, through an ankle injury, and one has good reason to suspect this won't be an easy tie for Portugal. England in 1994. Sweden in 1998. Holland in 2002. Turkey in 2006. Will Portugal fail to qualify for the 2010 World Cup, having made it to the semi-finals of the previous one?

The Verdict

This is a tough one to call. Both teams will surely have one eye on Wednesday's 2nd leg in Zenica, especially the 9 Bosnia players (I'll refrain from calling them Bosnians- let's not get into that debate) who are 1 yellow card away from missing that match. But hey, all 22 starting players for both sides, plus 14 subs, will be 2 yellow cards away from missing the match, so Bosnia coach Ciro Blazevic (who is 74 years old, and once ran for the Croatian presidency. Not of the FA, of the country) may not wish to dwell on that too much. The main reason Portugal are in the play-offs is because of the absolute pig's ear they made of their early qualifying fixtures- 0-0 draws at home to Albania and Sweden, and a 3-2 loss at home to Denmark. Despite winning their last 2 home games fairly comfortably, they are far from invincible at home. Bosnia's away form (won 3, lost 2 against Spain and Turkey) is respectable enough and, as already mentioned, they are more than capable of finding the net (provided this relatively inexperienced team does not freeze), even against an improving Portuguese backline. However, stopping them going in at the other end is likely to be the big problem for Blazevic's men and, even without Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal should still have enough quality to take a narrow lead into Wednesday's 2nd leg.

The Bet

There's not much value in Portugal outright at a general 1/2, but do take it if you feel that Bosnia will indeed freeze. Given that both sides boast considerable attacking prowess (Dzeko's presence on the Balon D'Or shortlist is testament to that), it might be worthwhile considering over 2.5 goals, available at 5/6 with Paddy Power