Saturday 10 November 2012

Weekend Betting, 10th-11th November

Hiya!

Really ought to put some good old-fashioned tips up for this weekend's games, hopefully just in time for y'all to get them on your coupons. Here goes:

Swans Are Solid
Southampton are starting to look out of their depth in the Premier League. They vaguely resemble the Blackpool side which briefly graced the top flight a few years ago- bravely committed to attacking play, but horribly naive defensively- 28 goals conceded in 10 games is a brutal stat. Nigel Adkins seems like an endearingly positive chap, but his days as Saints manager already look numbered- the repeated chopping and changing of goalkeeper (Kelvin Davis, Paulo Gazzaniga and Artur Boruc have all featured between the sticks this season) isn't helping. Swansea, meanwhile, are going along at a respectable nick, giving very good accounts of themselves against man city and Chelsea in their last 2 games, and are great value at 2/1 with 32Red to get the 3 points at St Mary's today

Sir Alex Likes His Claret
In the 5:30pm game today, Manchester United travel to Villa Park, which has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for them- United haven't lost a league game there since 1995, as well as having an excellent record in FA Cup semi finals played at the ground. After a slightly suspect start, United have started to click into gear, as they traditionally do around about October-November. Aston Villa's improvement under Paul Lambert has been...well...there hasn't really been one. With just 2 league wins and 8 league goals scored so far, Villa still don't exactly get one on the edge of one's seat. United to win outright are available at a general 1/2 if you fancy keeping your 3pm coupon waiting, otherwise, with Villa's prosaic attack and United's improving defence, which should see Chris Smalling available again, while David De Gea is now firmly established as 1st choice goalkeeper (we'll maybe see you at Galatasaray, Anders), United to win to Nil at 16/11 with Bwin is well worth considering

The Championship
There's a few tasty morsals to be had in the Championship today. I'd recommend being all over Crystal Palace (12 games unbeaten, Ian Holloway now in charge keeping them motoring) at 13/10 with Coral to win at struggling Peterborough. Also worth backing are Huddersfield at 15/8 with Victor Chandler to win at Barnsley, who have lost their last 3

And the Rest
Have a punt on Swindon to win at Walsall at 23/20 with Coral- Swindon's away record (4-2-2) is actually better than their 3-3-2 home record, while the opposite is true for out-of-form (5 defeats and no wins in their last 7 league games) Walsall. Also appealing are Aberdeen to win at St Mirren at a best price of 7/5 with Ladbrokes (yes, really. Ladbrokes do actually have the best price here). Despite the result last weekend, Aberdeen still dominated much of their 2-1 defeat at Ross County, which ended a 10 match league unbeaten run. St Mirren, meanwhile, have lost their last 4 league games, and go into this game without their suspended captain Jim Goodwin

Happy Christmas, Pilgrims!

Monday 17 September 2012

So Much to Blog About, So Little Time...

Evening, y'all

As the title suggests, I've plenty to write about here, yet Mother Time she is against me, so expect various smatterings of wholesome goodness from me.

How About Some Tips?
Let's start with some good old football betting tips. The UEFA Champions League returns this week, so it represents as good a place to start as any. The standout bet of the 1st round of fixtures has to be Arsenal (flying at the moment) to beat Montpellier (who have stumbled somewhat in Ligue 1 so far) at a general 5/4. Get on it quick, as that price could drop below evens by kick-off. Admittedly, aside from that game, there's not many bets from this week's fixtures that look like value- an accumulator featuring Dortmund, Barcelona, Braga, Paris Saint-Germain, Man Utd and Shakhtar Donetsk has a decent chance but won't make you a millionaire. Also, don't even think about backing misfiring AC Milan at home to Anderlecht. Looking at Champions League outrights, William Hill & Victor Chandler will both give you 10/1 on Manchester United claiming the trophy at Wembley next May, which looks a fantastic price.

Some More Tips
The Europa League kicks off again on Thursday, so let's have a gander at those fixtures and see what we can pick out. As ever with cup ties, it's often wise to wait until the team lines are announced before piling into certain teams- this is especially relevant when betting on English teams, who tend to rotate more in this competition, so for now we'll avoid backing any of the English teams. There look to be a few bankers out there- Napoli, Athletic Bilbao, Levante & Sporting CP should all win, but if you want a speculative punt go for Anzhi to beat Udinese at 9/5 with Stan James.

Charles Green. What's His Game?
This is more of a heads-up to a separate blog entry I'm working on, but I must admit to being confused as to what Charles Green's medium-term strategy at Rangers is. There's been chat recently that he intends to float the company which he launched this summer which now runs the club, however a quick consultation of my FSA handbook tells me that this is not possible- any company applying to be listed in the UK must have 3 years of financial statements that have been independently audited, a condition that Rangers obviously currently do not meet. Intriguingly, some media outlets (including the BBC & the Daily Record) both report that Ally McCoist currently owns 4.5% of the club. If true, then this would bar McCoist from any involvement with another Scottish team, or from any role within the SFA (e.g replacement for Craig Levein if/when he departs) as he would own greater than 3% of a member club.

Glazernomics
Last point from me this evening. Allow me to share with y'all a story I heard from a director at a top European club (I'll not name specifics to enable the source to retain anonymity). Apparently, United were interested in signing a player from them (a player I personally rate very highly indeed), however a deal could not be agreed. The sticking point was over the transfer fee, which United wanted to pay over 3 years (as has been commonplace under the Glazers), but the selling club wanted upfront (which was how United operated pre-Glazers). The selling club's concern was, and I quote "What happens if we allow United to pay over 3 years and then they go bust? We are left with no player and having to go to court to get paid". Witness also the current travails of Rapid Vienna, still chasing payment from the now-defunct Rangers for Nikica Jelavic

Going to Old Trafford? Do yourself a favour and shirk the official magazine & programme and instead furnish yourself with one (or more) of the excellent fanzines on offer outside the ground, United We Stand & Red Issue among them

Monday 3 September 2012

An Alternative Cabinet Reshuffle

So, David Cameron is set to announce a reshuffling of the ministers in his cabinet. Although, let's face it, now much is going to change, is it? A number of right-wing, Oxbridge-educated, middle-to-upper class, out-of-touch, neo-conservative little Englanders are going to be replaced with a different bunch of right-wing, Oxbridge-educated, middle-to-upper class, out-of-touch, neo-conservative little Englanders. So I propose to you, Dave, that you go with the following, to really rejig your government:

Chancellor of the Exchequer: Count von Count (replacing Gideon Osborne)


His well-documented love of counting things makes him the perfect man to replace Osborne- he's unlikely to be faze by such daunting tasks as tallying up the number of government functions that have erroneously outsourced to the private sector and how many school playing fields have been built over. He can surely also be trusted far more than Gideon to count (geddit?) how much tax he has to pay himself (for this reason, the currently unemployed Harry Redknapp must be ruled out of contention), and should also avoid the ignominy of being booed when presenting medals at the Paralympic games to the very people suffering the most under his cuts
 
Defence Secretary: Frankie Boyle (replacing Philip Hammond)
Two key facts here:
1. Britain has loads of cool shit for blowing people up currently going to waste in Iraq, Afghanistan & in numerous secrets bunkers, a few miles off the M27 near Southampton
2. None of you have ever heard of Philip Hammond
The appointment of Boyle as the man in charge of our weapons would eradicate both these problems (along with most of our enemies, whoever they are)
 
Culture Secretary: Mario Balotelli (replacing Jeremy Cun..er, Hunt)
The touting of this appointment does feel a bit awkward for this writer (regular readers will know that my affiliations lie with the other 3/4s of Manchester), but an "eccentric" individual such as Balotelli makes perfect sense as Culture Secretary. Just imagine the photo opportunities! Feeding the animals at Chester Zoo, parading a bizarre dress sense, promoting womens' prisons & helping boost fireworks sales that will get the economy going, both through the sales themselves & the resultant extra work for the emergency services

Friday 3 August 2012

Weekend Betting is back. Yay!

So, we've got the SPL starting this weekend, along with the League Cup 1st Round. Let's get tipping:
  • Arbroath to beat Stirling Albion at a best price of 8/15 with Paddy Power. Even at such a short price, this represents great value- Arbroath spanked 7 goals past Elgin (a comparable-strength team to Stirling) last Saturday, and Stirling are without a senior goalkeeper- Sam Filler is suspended & Mark Peat unavailable due to work commitments. Astute punters will pile in at that price, so get on it quick
  • Skipping ahead to Sunday, Dundee United look best-placed to challenge for 2nd place in the SPL- they have made some smart acquisitions (among them Michael Gardyne & Mark Millar, arguably the 2 best players in the 1st Division last season) and gave a very good account of themselves against Dinamo Moscow on Thursday night, drawing 2-2. The 8/11 offered by Coral on them beating Hibs should be taken
  • Elsewhere, it's possible to put together what should be a fairly safe accumulator in the League Cup- expect Falkirk, Partick Thistle, Hamilton & Raith Rovers to all get the job done in their games
Enjoy, and 'Mon the Staggies

Friday 20 July 2012

When Your Car Needs a New Engine, Don't Buy Alloy Wheels Instead

This morning's paper talk of Manchester United being interested in signing Robin van Persie was rather surprising to this writer for a number of reasons. An even bigger surprise came this evening when Sir Alex Ferguson confirmed on MUTV that a bid had indeed been made. Here's a few reasons why, to me, this potential deal makes no sense and will not happen:

  • Rooney, Welbeck, Hernandez, Berbatov, Macheda. Even assuming the likely departure of 1 of the last 2 of those names, United have a strikeforce as strong as any in Europe. Also factor in the likes of Kagawa, Young, Powell and Giggs who could all operate in the 10 position (plus talented youngsters like Will Keane & Josh King), and you have to come to the conclusion that United simply don't need another centre-forward. If van Persie is to be believed when he says his main motivation is to win trophies, then one could argue that Juventus, another of the teams in the running for his signature, give him at least as good, if not better, a chance of winning the Champions League in the near future
  • There are, however, other areas of United's squad that need reinforcing. The central midfield issue needs no explaining (as earlier mentioned, Kagawa is more likely to be used as a 10, rather than as part of a Doppelsechs setup), while there is no senior cover for Patrice Evra at left-back- rookies Robbie Brady (a jinking left-winger by trade) and Tyler Blackett will be deployed there during pre-season, and possibly during the season should Evra be unavailable. A move for Everton's Leighton Baines seems to be on the back-burner for now- it's likely to stay there, and definitely will if the van Persie deal goes through
  • As alluded to at the end of the last point, there is the issue of finances. The bid lodged by United announced today was rumoured to be in the region of £15 million, which Arsenal rejected, holding out as they are for £25million-£30 million. The signing of van Persie would also go against United's stringent transfer policy of signing young players with high sell-on value at relatively low wages. At 28 and injury prone, van Persie is the very antithesis of this policy
  • More on the financial side now. United recently launched an IPO on the New Your Stock Exchange in an attempt to raise capital and also to relieve the club of some of the indebtedness it has taken on with the ownership of the Glazers, a tacit admission that the sheer size of the debt (well into the hundreds of millions) is now holding the club back. To put it simply, if United could meet Arsenal's asking price at the drop of a hat (the way, say, citeh, Paris Saint-Germain or Chelsea could), then they surely would. In the context of this IPO, we also have to consider a financial industry concept known as "signalling". This is where an institution, wishing to drum up positive investor interest (or downplay negative stories) in itself publicly releases positive information about itself that it would normally have kept confidential that may be exaggerated or not entirely truthful. To sum that point up, FERGIE'S LYING!!!
RVP to MUFC ain't going to happen, people

Friday 6 July 2012

Ideological Blowback

So we now, at last, have confirmation of what most of us have known for a number of weeks now, after 7 SPL clubs declared their voting intentions: Newco Rangers will not play in the SPL in 2012/13.

But what is emerging this summer in Scottish football is something bigger, something far, far more powerful than the mere deciding of the fate of 1 tax-avoiding, soon-to-be-liquidated "establishment" club. The SPL clubs' No votes were, as has been admitted by the clubs and SPL Chief Executive (whose position is surely now close to untenable) Neil Doncaster, driven by the wishes and demands of supporters, who not only voiced their discontent, but also backed them up through refusing to purchase season tickets. It should also be noted that Scotland national team supporters' club memberships are selling much more slowly than normal this summer.

Classic consumer activism, or fan power if you like. But now we're at the stage where it's up to the SFL (Scottish Football League) member clubs to decide if Newco start 2012/13 in the SFL Division 1, Division 3 or if they are to be denied entry altogether, and it goes further than simple fan power. The vast majority (and we are talking vast- opinion polls have Division 3 as the favoured option of 95-98% of voters, including Rangers fans) of fans want Newco to be treated like any other new applicant to the SFL, and made to start from the bottom. However, Doncaster and his partner-in-crime Stewart Regan of the SFA (Scottish Football Association. Don't worry if you're new to the blog- even the most seasoned Scottish football fans get confused by the different governing bodies) are intent on forcing the will of the SFL member clubs into accepting Newco into Division 1. Unfortunately, their scare tactics look set to work on a few clubs, namely Stenhousemuir, but many clubs (and supporters of all clubs, SPL, SFL and Rangers) are standing firm, despite the bullying tactics (which represent at best a dereliction of duty, at worst borderline criminality) of the SPL and SFA.

This will take a bit of explaining, but there is a fascinating parallel between this current state of affairs in Scottish football and post-invasion Iraq.

Some people may look at that statement and think along the lines of: "Evil tyrant knocked off their perch and destroyed, the previously suppressed commoners rejoice!". However, to go with this viewpoint is to misread the current state of Scottish football and to misunderstand post-invasion Iraq.

The common timeline actually goes more like this: "Power vacuum created by the termination of a controlling influence leads to outside authority figures attempting to impose their preferred ideology, only to meet strong resistance from the masses". In post-invasion Iraq, the outside authority figures are represented by the USA, with their free-market ideology which they tried to impose on the Iraqi people, only for the Iraqi citizens to revolt against it, leaving the US government to gradually withdraw, the private contractors it had brought to Iraq having long since departed with billions of dollars of US taxpayer dollars in subsidies, their free-market experiment having crashed and burned.

The authority figures in Scotland (namely, exclusively even, Regan & Doncaster) in the absence of Rangers wish to force upon the rest of Scottish football a model which, ultimately, aims to have Newco Rangers parachuted back into the previously dominant position of the now-defunct Rangers.  However, Regan & Doncaster's sole motivation for this seems to be maintenance of the status quo and the perceived level of income, which the footballing masses can see straight through. The rules & regulations governing the game make it quite clear that the procedure in an insolvency event such as the impending liquidation of Rangers that any new entry must apply to the SFL for admittance to Division 3- the masses simply want to see standard procedure followed. (Although, in a rather embarassing revelation for the SFL, it does not specify in their regulations that a new applicant MUST start in Division 3- the best explanation I can offer for this is that the SFL assumed no-one would have the bare-faced cheek to ask to start in a position more privileged than anyone else)

And hence we have ideological blowback, where the ideas preached by the authorities are thrown back at them with a vengeance. The sweetener that Doncaster threw into all his commercial deals of guaranteeing 4 Rangers v Celtic games per season has come back to haunt him, and haunt him loud, while Regan's frankly bizarre comments about potential "social unrest" should Newco be playing at a level below Division 1 surely now leave his position at least as untenable as Doncaster's, and also do a disservice to the significant proportion of Rangers fans who have conducted themselves with dignity and contrition during this sorry saga.

If we do not learn the lessons of history then we will end up repeating the same mistakes. Regan & Doncaster would do well to have Paul Bremer on speed-dial over the coming weeks

Monday 18 June 2012

So This Whole Newco Nonsense....

With a vote on July 4th to decide the identity of the SPL's "Club 12", let's have a look at the season-ticket situation. Many clubs are reporting (well, not reporting, but information is being leaked/extracted) that their season ticket sales are not merely falling but completely collapsing, due to the uncertainty regarding Club 12- some clubs are believed to have not yet shifted 200 season tickets when they would have expected to sell 10 times that number by this point in the summer. It's been well-documented why this is- supporters of all other SPL teams (and even a number of Rangers fans) do not want to see Newco Rangers allowed straight back in to the SPL, and many fans do not want to spend time and money backing a club that is complicit in their readmission to the league.

This got me thinking- how many season-ticket holders would a club need to lose to offset the additional ticket revenue brought in by the Rangers travelling support?

The answer is not many. I've collated the following pieces for each of the 10 SPL clubs who were there last season and will be there this season (newly-promoted Ross County didn't play Rangers last season and relegated Dunfermline won't play them this season. Their season ticket figures of approx 1250 so far are actually more positive than much of the SPL, helped by their clear No to Newco stance):
  • The cost of a 2012/13 Adult season ticket (where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
  • The cost of a 2011/12 Adult ticket for a match v Rangers (2012/13 individual match ticket prices are not available for most clubs at this time, and they're unlikely to fluctuate much anyway. Again, where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
  • The approximate number of tickets allocated to Rangers for these games in 2011/12
From these figures, by multiplying the number of tickets allocated to Rangers by the ticket price for these games, we can derive the total ticket revenue to the host club from the game. By then dividing this figure by the cost of a season ticket, we can establish an approximate figure of how many season ticket holders a club would need to lose to offset the additional revenue of the visit of Rangers. The full results are as follows:

Aberdeen- 430 season ticket holders
Celtic- 541
Dundee United- 384
Hearts- 296
Hibs- 294
Inverness CT- 149
Kilmarnock- 606
Motherwell- 417
St Johnstone- 366
St Mirren- 242

From these figures, the stance of many clubs suddenly becomes clear. It's now far easier to see why Kilmarnock chairman Michael Johnston is vocal in his support for allowing Newco Rangers back into the SPL-with their diminishing crowds and comparatively large stadium capacity, Johnston feels Kilmarnock need to sell 2 full stands to Rangers fans twice a season in order to survive, and that he'd struggle to sell over 600 additional season-tickets to compensate for their departure. For the remainder of clubs, though, it's clear that only a small number of their season-ticket holders need not renew for them to lose out. It should also be factored in that for 2012/13, if Club 12 are not Newco Rangers, then they will almost certainly be Dundee, who would take a comparable travelling support to Dundee United, St Johnstone and perhaps Aberdeen to that of Rangers. For those reasons alone, that should be 3 No to Newco votes wrapped up- with Hibs chairman Rod Petrie previously vocal about sporting integrity being the priority, we can assume that Hibs will also vote No- they also need to retain all the season ticket holders they can (especially after a poor season on the pitch), as they need only lose fewer than 300 to offset the Newco travelling fans. Even allowing for the likely Yes vote from Kilmarnock for the reasons already mentioned, that's already 4 likely No votes, and would Celtic really turn down an opportunity to relegate their oldest rivals from the top flight?

Another factor to be considered is that, with each passing day, it becomes more and more difficult for Newco Rangers to put together everything they'll need to be competitive next season should they be in the SPL- no players have signed as of yet (Newco Rangers are obliged to OFFER Oldco Rangers' players and staff a new contract, but they players and staff are not obliged to accept) and season-ticket holders must be wondering whether they should commit to paying SPL prices for their tickets which could yet be for 3rd Division football, or even for no football at all. And one can only wonder at how Ally McCoist (if he is to continue as manager) has been preparing- does he devise a pre-season programme based on the technique required for the SPL (not much admittedly) or for the more physical, bruising nature of the 3rd division? Can he build a strong squad of quality players for an assault on the SPL, or does he have to try and find 18-20 part-time players for the bottom tier? The longer he has to wait, the more likely someone else is going to come in for all those players. Do the other SPL clubs really want a team who may not be able to compete with them whilst in financial turmoil, a la Gretna?

Lastly, I'd recommend that, if you're a fan of an SPL team, you let them know your feelings. Teams need to listen to their fans more than ever in these challenging times for Scottish football

Edited on 19.6.2012 for updated figures, thanks @MitchellenMan

Saturday 9 June 2012

And Yet More Words On Euro 2012

One day in, let's now have a look at Group C of Euro 2012. After the barnstorming start I made (had Russia to win 4-1 at 50/1 and Dzagoev to score 2 or more goals at 35/1), I'll also furnish y'all with some tips for the next few games:

Group C: (Campeones, Corrupt Calcio, Cafe Table Cloths, Caffreys)

Reigning European and World champions Spain, despite being without the injured Puyol and Villa, are among the favourites. There's been much talk of fatigue amongst their players, particularly the Barcelona contingent, but this shouldn't be as much of a problem for them as it would be for other sides. Their possession-based game will see them typically with about 70% of possession each game, so opportunities will be there for the likes of Xavi, Alonso and Iniesta to take a "breather" during the games by simply retaining the ball amongst themselves, knowing that many opponents, Ireland in particular, will likely afford them much time and space in the middle of the park and play with 9 or 10 players within 30 metres of their own goal. By the time they reach the latter stages, though, fatigue may catch up with them, especially if confronted by a rapid-pressing, energetic, powerful Germany side. Behind them, Italy look rather shambolic. Another match-fixing scandal is rife in their domestic game, costing them the services of left-back Domenico Criscito, and their main attacking options are Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano- can either of them really be relied upon at this level? Croatia, still playing in those red and white cafe table cloths, must fancy their chances of finishing ahead of Italy- they are tactically versatile, with coach Slaven Bilic having an impressive array of attacking options available, even without the inured workhorse Ivica Olic- Luka Modric will pull the strings in the centre of midfield, with Darijo Srna motoring up and down the right flank. The left-midfield and central-attacking midfield positions will be filled by 2 from Niko Kranjcar, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, with the impressive Nikica Jelavic either on his own upfront, or possibly partnered by Mario Mandzukic or Eduardo should Bilic opt for a front 2 ahead of a flatter midfield. Don't expect much from Ireland either aesthetically or in terms of results- the current squad is very much Caffreys (poor imitation) compared to the Guinness (real deal) of their 1994 and 2002 vintages. Giovanni Trappatoni's side have an extremely basic tactical framework- 4-4-2 with centre-backs at full-back, 2 holders in the centre of midfield, 2 wingers and a target man-little man strike partnership. While they could frustrate all 3 group opponents, they are unlikely to be able to create enough to threaten qualification

Now for some tips. Some good, some more adventurous:
Holland to beat Denmark at 8/11 general
Holland v Denmark under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Betfred

Germany and Portugal to draw at 23/10 general
Half time/ full time Portugal/Draw at 16/1 with Skybet
Cristiano Ronaldo 1st scorer at 11/2 general
Germany and Portugal to draw 3-3 at 80/1 with Bodog

Spain v Italy under 2.5 goals at 8/13 with Skybet
Ireland v Croatia under 2.5 goals at 1/2 general

Wednesday 6 June 2012

Some More Words on Euro 2012

2 days to go until the start of Euro 2012. Office sweepstake done? Check. Polish colleagues getting hyper-excited? Check. Smart gamblers with outright bets placed months ago? Check (for the record, yours truly has the following: Germany outright winners @ 10/3, Klose top scorer @ 14/1, Russia each/way @18/1, Lewandowski top scorer @ 50/1. Some of those prices, Lewy for the Golden Boot in particular, are long gone). Less organised punters still floundering around for semi-decent prices? Check. Fantasy football leagues setup? Check

Instead of doing a straight rundown of Groups C and D, I thought I'd offer some more general musings on what to expect at Euro 2012, as well as a few tips for the floundering punters.

In the last few days, many people have been getting excited about France- they're now as short as 9/1 to win the tournament with many bookmakers, while centre-forward Karim Benzema is now as short as 12/1 for top scorer- both outcomes were available at much longer prices only a few weeks ago. Most of this interest has come about due to their impressive warm-up results, however one must note that the quality of opponents they have faced recently has been lacking- Iceland took a 2 goal lead against them before going down 3-2, Serbia are in transition under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic and Estonia offered very little against Les Bleus after the first 10 minutes. They should comfortably qualify from Group D, and should come through a likely quarter-final against Croatia or an utter shambles of an Italy side, but their central defensive frailties, where 1st choice pairing Philippe Mexes and Adil Rami have both endured difficult seasons at club level, are likely to be exposed by the time they reach the semi-finals. There are also question marks over who will be protecting the back 4, with injury concerns over DMs Yann M'Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Alou Diarra. World Cup 2014 could be their time, though.

As for Benzema, he's a more realistic shout of claiming outright glory. Again, it's his form in the aforementioned warm-up games that has got everyone interested, as well as the defensive travails of all of their Group D opponents- he's also got plenty of creativity behind him, as well as a potential target man to play off if Laurent Blanc decides to throw Olivier Giroud on alongside him. That 12/1 is just about worth a few quid- kudos to you if you got him when he was still in the 20s

I'll do the other 2 groups within the next few days, i.e. before any actual matches are played

Sunday 3 June 2012

Some Words About Euro 2012

Euro 2012 begins on Friday (Poland v Greece, kick off 5pm, so you shouldn't have to sneak away from work too early), so I suppose I'd better share some musings about the upcoming soccerfest

Group A (Arshavin, Austerity, Ambition, Ach Who Cares?)
Arguably the weakest of the groups contains 4 fairly evenly-matched teams, all of whom will harbour realistic expectations of progression to the knockout stages. Russia are the strongest of the 4, and should top the group. They have a genuinely top class keeper in the fit-again Igor Akinfeev to compensate for a less-than world class defence, while a tough, workmanlike midfield will provide an attacking platform for 1 exciting young playmaker (Alan Dzagoev) and 1 older, less exciting playmaker (Andrei Arshavin) to create openings for the lone frontman, who will be 1 from Alexandr Kerzhakov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. Co-hosts Poland should join them in the knockout stages- centre-forward Robert Lewandowski has established himself as one of Europe's best srikers and is well-fancied by many to be the tournament's top scorer, his price having moved from 40/1 to 20/1 in the last few weeks. Lewandowski's Borussia Dortmund club mates, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Lukasz Piczczek will line up down the right flank of a fairly standard 4-2-3-1 formation in which the 2 DMs, likely to be Dariusz Dudka and Rafal Murawski, will hold and do little else. Arsenal's Wojciech Szczesny will be in goals. Regarding the other 2 teams in the group, the Czech Republic's golden generation have now moved on, while their impressive Under 21 crop from last summer are not yet ready to step up, while Greece offer very little aside from dogged tenacity in defence and the hope of a set-piece at the other end- it's unlikely to be enough to see them past a slick, determined Russia and a decent Polish side on home soil

Group B (Bundesliga, Bacon, Bento, Boiler Suits)
Ah, the old "group of death". Germany go into the tournament as 2nd favourites behind Spain, with all the old Teutonic efficiency of old, but these days with a sparkling, powerful attacking game with young uberstars like Mario Gotze, Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and the World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller. 2 of these 4 will likely make up the 3 man attacking midfield (Lukas Podolski, a Nationalmannschaft veteran at the age of 27, should take the left-sided forward role) support to the lone frontman, the ageless Miroslav Klose. Concerns remain about the defence (not only is the awful Benedikt Howedes in the squad, he may actually play) but they were imperious in qualifying (10 wins from 10) and are capable of making it through this group with relative ease. Very strong chance of going all the way. Behind them, all 3 teams could conceivably go through. The bacon-munching Danes go into the tournament in good form- the loss of goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen was a blow but not an insurmountable one- Man Utd's Anders Lindegaard is an able deputy, while their key attacking threats are all fit and raring to go. Coach Morten Olsen is a wily old fox who will know how to extract the maximum from his side. Holland's fans will flock to the tournament to a man dressed in bright orange boiler suits with a potent attack but question marks over the playing style and the defence- Arjen Robben's propensity to screw up in crucial games is also not to be discounted. Portugal, under Paulo Bento, are basically Cristiano Ronaldo + a useless rabble of 10 others, which admittedly means they've still got a chance

Groups C and D will follow soooooon

Monday 7 May 2012

Houston, we have a problem

So, Dundee United manager Peter Houston has come out this week and said that, without Rangers in the SPL, his club stand to lose in the region of £600,000. Let's rip that statement to shreds

Firstly, an SPL next season without Rangers would see United's city rivals, Dundee, admitted to the SPL in their place as 1st Division runners-up (although their final points tally was closer to bottom-placed Queen of the South than winners Ross County. Sorry folks, I couldn't resist). Games against Dundee at Tannadice would be guaranteed sell-outs (notably, neither of Rangers' 2 trips to Tannadice this season sold out) and would most likely be deemed "premium" fixtures, i.e. highest bracket of ticket and hospitality prices (another bugbear of this writer, but we'll leave that for another day). So loss of ticket revenue isn't going to be an issue. The issue of a loss of TV revenue is probably weighing on Houston's mind, given that 3 of Dundee United's 4 league games v Rangers were televised by Sky or ESPN, however it's a reasonable assumption to make that a Dundee derby will be an attractive proposition for live TV, and much as there has been some hand-wringing over Sky's future coverage of the SPL, ESPN, who show just as many matches, have a deal until 2017. And, let's face it, if Rangers start next season in Division 3, then by the time that deal is up for renewal, there's a good chance the Govan side will be back in the SPL.

Clubs like Dundee United would also benefit on the park. Houston would probably admit that, in ordinary circumstances, Rangers would almost certainly be plotting moves this summer for the likes of Johnny Russell and Gary Mackay Steven, and would be able to blow his side out of the water in financial terms, plus European football. This will now no longer be the case, thereby giving Houston more opportunity to build a stronger team around these talented players. This should, in theory, mean that by the time Rangers rise through the SFL and are back in the SPL (as will most likely happen), the rest of the league should be much stronger, which will benefit the whole of Scottish football.

So the short-term and long-term cases are there to see. What also has to be taken into account is the view of the supporters. The results of the recent SPL fan survey show that supporters are by and large unsympathetic to the idea of a Newco Rangers playing in the SPL, and rightly so. The results also indicate that there would be a significant drop in the already-diminishing crowds at SPL games. The chairmen, who will ultimately make the final decision, cannot ignore this. They may, and usually do, point at the TV deals as being a source of finance, but it's worth remembering exactly who Sky, ESPN and the BBC (who, should Sky pull out, would surely fancy boosting their diminishing live sports rights portfolio) televise football for: the supporters.

We can but hope for some sense and sensibility from the SPL chairmen when they (eventually) make their decision. We can but hope

Tuesday 27 March 2012

Some General Musings

Been a while since I posted own on here, so time to address that with some general musings. Some of the usual betting tips will appear again soon enough

Manchester United and referees
Now, regular (and irregular) readers will know of my leanings, but bear with me. Fulham should have had a penalty at Old Trafford last night, no-one's going to argue that one. But likewise, think back to the penalty Newcastle got at Old Trafford earlier this season. It sounds cliched, but these things generally do even themselves out over a season
Some stats have also emerged regarding the number of penalties (most in the league) and yellow cards (fewest in the league) awarded to Man Utd in recent weeks. There is a perfectly logical explanation for both of these, and it's nothing to do with referees favouring Man Utd (indeed, if you want to talk about a Premier League referee favouring a particular team, look at Chelsea's results in games refereed by Martin Atkinson). Quite simply, United typically spend more of the game in possession and attacking their opponents. In order to be awarded a penalty, you obviously need to be in possession of the ball in your opponents' penalty area- the more often you're in the opposition box, the more opportunities you're likely to get for them to foul you.

Similarly, in order for you to pick up a yellow card, generally you need for your opponent to be in possession of the ball. The less time your opponent has the ball, the fewer chances you're likely to have to foul them

Andre Villas-Boas to Inter? Really?
I must admit that, after his totally undeserved and unjustified sacking from Chelsea, I was baffled to hear media reports linking Andre Villas-Boas with perennial basket case Internazionale. Some forensic analysis reveals that the two sides have remarkably similar problems, so much so it's actually hilarious (well, to me anyway) to go through both sides:
Goalkeeper who was outstanding but now a complete liability: Check (Julio Cesar and Cech)
Brazilian centre-back prone to wandering: Check (Lucio and David Luiz)
Veteran warhorse of a cantankerous old bastard alongside: Check (Samuel and Terry)
Young, highly replacements for them who are actually useless: Check (Ranocchia and Cahill)
Portuguese-speaking adventurous full-back affected by loss of form and injury: Check (Maicon and Bosingwa/Ferreira)
Uber-talented but misfiring, ill-fitting, blond, Spanish-speaking centre-forward: Check (Forlan and Torres)
Ageing midfield with not-totally-convincing replacements: Check
A squad that had shown its resistance and unsuitability to a high-intensity style and high defensive line: Check
Megalomaniacal owner with a tendency to hire and fire: Check (Moratti and Abramovich)
After being unable to solve this set of problems at 1 club, why did people expect AVB to be able/willing to do it again somewhere else?

Mon the Staggies

Monday 13 February 2012

Rangers in Administration

So, the announcement that has shocked everyone and no-one- Rangers have lodged their intention to go into administration. What does this mean, I hear you ask?

Firstly, the club, assuming administration (i.e the size of their liabilities (debts) exceed the value of their assets) is entered within the next 10 days, will incur an automatic 10 point penalty from the SPL (which, in the current table, would leave them still in 2nd place, 5 points ahead of Motherwell but 14 behind Celtic) along with a player registration embargo (better get Daniel Cousin's paperwork signed off quickly, lads). The club will then be placed in the control of an administrator (most likely appointed by either HMRC or their bank), whose task will be to return the club to a position where it can trade normally. This would be achieved by a combination of cost-cutting, sale of assets and negoitating more lenient terms with creditors- this is known as a Company Voluntary Agreement.

A Company Voluntary Agreement (CVA) is where the club would agree with the creditor to write off the debt in return for paying off an agreed percentage of the debt. However, any CVA would require HMRC to approve, as a CVA can only be passed if approved by 75% or more of the creditors by value. A recent example of a CVA being approved would be Dundee FC, who managed to obtain a CVA paying just 6p in the pound- again, the major creditor was HMRC. That's not to say that a CVA will even be proposed, never mind accepted. In order for a CVA to be accepted, all concerned (the directors, administrator and creditors) need to be convinced that the business can be made viable and that the mistakes that led the business to insolvency have been learned, and will not be repeated.

While an agreement with creditors will be rigorously pursued, firstly over the next 10 days by the existing directors, then potentially by an administrator, there will no doubt be considerable emphasis placed on cost-cutting and the potential sale of assets. Expect to see a significant reduction in wage costs at Ibrox, with many non-playing personnel either being made redundant (with possibly an informal understanfing that, should the club return to a financially stable position, they be rehired) or asked to take a pay cut. The sale of players is a more complicated matter, with the transfer window now being shut for most European clubs- Sweden, Norway and Russia being the exceptions, and any prospect of raising significant transfer fees from there deemed slim (big-spending Anzhi Machachkala shop at more luxury boutiques), likewise the Americas. In any case, Rangers have a relatively small squad, containing few players who could be expected to command a transfer fee sizeable enough to make a real difference to the financial position.

One possible idea could be to arrange for the sales of players to go through at the end of the season when the transfer window reopens with Rangers receiving the money upfront while keeping the player until the summer. However, looking again at the recent example of Dundee being in a similar position, and trying to do the same thing when selling Leigh Griffiths to Wolves, the SPL and SFA are unlikely to be too keen on the club doing this- it could be seen to give the club an unfair advantage by having both the player and the monies for his transfer at the same time.

As for the rest of Scottish football, while there will no doubt be much Schadenfreude from the supporters (some of it understandable), this is not necessarily a good day for Scottish football. For instance, Dundee United (their share of the gate receipts from their recent Scottish Cup win at Ibrox) and Hearts (the final instalment of the Lee Wallace transfer fee) are both owed sums in the region of £100,000 by Rangers. What also should be concerning is that they are unable to afford to sign the cream of the talent from the rest of the SPL, with English Championship clubs now able to outbid them in terms of transfer fees and wages, therefore denying the players the possibility of Champions League (or, more likely, Europa League) football, and denying Celtic any real competition domestically. One also has to wonder about the commercial appeal of an SPL deprived of a competitive Rangers team, although none of these reasons should in any way prevent the relevant authorities (HMRC, SPL, SFA, administrators and other creditors) for seeking a favourable resolution, whatever the consequences. Contrary to the adverts, tax appears to be taxing in this case

Wednesday 25 January 2012

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

26th March 2010, it has been far too long.
Thought I'd blast out some words to inform you all of the current craze sweeping through my work.
By “craze” I actually mean myself and Scot talking over a pint about how to finally get a bloody coupon up.
Previously the pass at work has looked like this on a Saturday. Usually getting bust by 3pm as I forgot to check the times of the kick-offs before placing the bets hastily while late for work on a Saturday morning.






The idea is, instead of doing a long accumulator with a few dead certs and a couple of more risky and lucrative bets we change our approach and do a continuous accumulator. Start of with a £10, and just do one (odds on if you fell scared) bet a day, constantly increasing your stake.
Set a target out, for me it’s going to be £100. Then, do it all over again. I’ve searched around on the internet for anyone doing this and stumbled across this wee gem of a website. It explains the process far more eloquently and soberly than I can.
http://theaccumulator.co.uk/index.html
So, starting from Tuesday, 24th January. I will adopting this process of gambling. I’ll only ever risk £10 and if it comes of it is a more enjoyable and rewarding system off saving money than doing something stupid and putting your money into an ISA.
Rest assured if this system works I’ll write back and let you know.
In the meantime, here is a terrible but lucrative bet for this midweek.
1) I fancy Motherwell for 3rd spot in the SPL this season. If their stadium doesn’t catch fire I think they will be strong enough to pump Dunfermline.
4/6
2) Leviadiakos are 19/1 to beat Panathinaikos on the 25th. That has to be worth a quid!
3) Andy Carrol, anytime goalscorer against Manchester City on Wednesday night. No, on second thoughts just ignore that one.
Have fun and enjoy losing your money,
All the best and good betting!

Saturday 21 January 2012

Weekend Betting, Saturday 21st January

Big weekend of soccer matches coming up (although, to be honest, they're all going to be big now. We're getting towards the part of the season where the football actually gets good), let's have a look at what we can have a punt on:


  • Newcastle away at Fulham firstly. The Geordies are currently shorn of 2 key men in Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba, along with new number 9 Papiss Demba Cisse. However, despite an arguably poor performance they still had more than enough to see of QPR last weekend. Fulham are wildly inconsistent this season, and were extremely poor last time out away at Blackburn. An improvement at home will be hoped for, but Newcastle are well worth backing, with 3/1 generally available

  • Stoke at home to West Brom has home win written all over it. West Brom's early-mid season form has tailed off badly, with Woy Hodgson's side winless in the league since early December and facing a Stoke side against whom they have a horrible recent record- 2 draws and 7 defeats for West Brom in their last 9 meetings. With the Europa League put to bed until the middle of next month, Stoke have recovered their league form, and are available at 11/10 to triumph with Hills. Get on that if you know what's good for you

  • As regular readers will know, I like a bit of trend-spotting. I like to find a reliable bet with good returns and stick it on most weeks. Last season, that was backing Norwich to win most games, which itself replaced Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. This season has yet to produce such a bet, apart from, well..er...Norwich again. The on-form Canaries are available at 5/1 to pull off a win against a slightly unconvincing Chelsea, shorn currently of Didier Drogba. They are not, though, without a goal threat, with Juan Mata adapting well to English football. He's 2/1 to score anytime today against a Norwich defence that has ye to keep a clean sheet this season

  • Outside the Premier League, there are a plethora of teams at backable odds today, among them Barnsley, Birmingham, Bournemouth and Carlisle

Tuck in

Thursday 5 January 2012

Weekend Betting, Saturday 7th January

Into 2012 we go, and it's FA Cup 3rd Round (and Scottish Cup 4th Round) weekend. Plenty of opportunities for shocks, they tell us. Plenty of opportunity for betting, I tell you. Here are some pointers:


  • There's a growing trend towards making wholesale changes for the FA Cup, particularly among the Premier League clubs (nobody in the SPL has a big enough squad to make wholesale changes and still field a strong line-up). With that in mind, it's worthwhile waiting to see teamsheets before backing or opposing certain teams. 2 fixtures that immediately come to mind regarding this are Barnsley v Swansea and Norwich v Burnley. In both matches, if both teams were at full-strength, then Swansea (6/4) and Norwich (18/19) should both prevail fairly comfortably, but both sides are likely to prioritise their Premier League campaigns, and could send out much-changed sides, giving an opportunity to the Championship clubs

  • In-form lower league club at home to out-of-form Premier League club? Those sound like the conditions required for a cup shock. 2 prime examples of where these conditions apply are at MK Dons (7/4) and Swindon (21/10), who host misfiring QPR and Wigan respectively. Those prices will become even more appealing should the visiting sides make changes, as highlighted above. Cardiff (4/1) are also well worth a punt when they travel to West Brom

  • There are some ties, though, that should surely merit comfortable wins for the favourites, and could therefore form part of a reasonably safe accumulator, namely Everton, Fulham, Sheffield United and Tottenham

  • In the Scottish Cup, a similar coupon can be put together: back Hearts, Motherwell, Partick and St Johnstone to get the job done on Saturday. Shock-wise, if you're feeling really adventurous, then have a wee look at Arbroath v Rangers. Arbroath are going well in the 2nd Division and are unbeaten at home this season- Rangers travel to Gayfield without a number of key players, and with uncertainty surrounding the future of striker Nikica Jelavic, their attacking edge has been blunted of late. The draw is available at 13/2