Monday 20 April 2015

Tom Keen (Number 7)

Yeah, about those Grand National tips......

Time to get back to what I actually know, and leave the nags for about 10 months (5 furlong dashes over the flat doesn't interest me nearly as much):

Obligatory Champions League Quarter Final 2nd Leg Previews
The Madrid derby at the Vicente Calderon was a predictably scrappy affair (going 7 matches without beating your neighbours tends to do that to you, eh Mr Ancelotti?), with the No Disqualifications Match between Mario Mandzukic and Sergio Ramos proving an amusing side story, even if there was a suspicion Mandzukic may have bladed after catching Ramos' stray fingernail. They reconvene in the Emirati Oil Company Bernabeu (laugh now, but it's happening) on Wednesday with both sides hit by injuries and suspension- factoring in this, Diego Simeone's side's record in this game, and the standard bookies' overpricing of Atletico, 13/8 on Atletico to qualify is the call here (as is 9/2 on Monaco to qualify in Wednesday's other game)


He May Talk The Talk, But Jose Will Never Walk The Walk
Chelsea's youth team won the UEFA youth league last week, and they contest the 1st leg of the FA youth cup tonight. Jose Mourinho has spent some time this season talking up the progress being made by the club's academy, but how has this translated into actual minutes on the park for these players? It, er, hasn't. Witness the last 2 league games, where due to not-exactly-unpredictable injuries to Diego Costa and Loic Remy, Mourinho has deployed the geriatric Didier Drogba in attack. Lo and behold, in both games, Drogba's contribution has been, as one would expect from a 93-year-old centre-forward, minimal, especially past the 60 minute mark. And has Maureen deigned to use young strikers from the bench like Izzy Brown and Dominic Solanke? Of course not. By way of comparison, it's interesting to note that 19 year olds Paddy McNair and Luke Shaw were arguably Manchester United's best players on Saturday. Amazing what happens when you actually trust them, eh Jose?

Welcome Back, GP2
The hidden gem of the Sky Sports F1 channel, the GP2 Series started again in Bahrain this weekend, with all the fun, overtaking, and Sergio Canamasas crashing into people that we've come to expect from F1's main support series. Pre-season favourite, McLaren protégé Stoffel Vandoorne duly lived up to expectations, recording pole position, the race win and fastest lap in Saturday's feature race, following it up with a 2nd place in Sunday's sprint race. As ever in single-make formulae, he's unlikely to have it all his own way, though: likely contenders include Alexander Rossi, who finally has a good seat at Racing Engineering after a patchy 2014, and scored a feature race podium. Honourable mention, too, for his team-mate Jordan King, who was just behind him in the feature race before having the misfortune to be run into by the ever-dangerous Sergio Canamasas. Ferrari-affiliated youngster Raffaele Marciello, meanwhile, is making a play for Unluckiest GP2 Driver. After numerous instances of bad luck last season, his 2015 started with gearbox issues during qualifying, before being taken out of the feature race by Norman Nato, effectively ruining his weekend. If this guy can catch a break, he's sure to challenge Vandoorne, who should also face a greater challenge from the other side of his ART garage, with Nobuharu Matsushita taking to the series much more quickly than 2014 pilot Takuya Izawa, scoring points in both races








I SO INFORMED YOU THUSLY

Friday 10 April 2015

Rollins! Rollins Wins the Title!

It's almost here, folks- the Grand National!

As tradition dictates, let's go through a couple of general pointers, along with some of the possible contenders:

It Pays To Go Each-Way
I'm going to assume that, if you're reading this blog, you know what's meant by each way, but with so many horses in with a chance of at least placing, and so many runners at biggish prices, it really is worthwhile covering yourself by going each way on your runner(s). Scout around for the bookies offering 5 (and even 6) places, as well as scouting around for the best prices (we'll touch on that again later)

Beat The Crowd- Get Your Bets On Early
The casual punters will all be in your local Ladbrokes or Hills on Saturday morning, and their flood of fivers and tenners will only send the prices downwards, diminishing your returns (although the disappearance from this year's race of Shakalakaboomboom does mean there's no risk of the Ooh, Let's Pick Him Because He has A Funny Name LOLZ crowd adversely impacting on a horse's price). With the final declaration stage having been Thursday (once all the horses had been to the horse dentist), get in there quickly after that to get your runners (because you're taking more than 1; come on, there's 40 horses in the field!) at the best available price. Remember and shop around for the best prices, too- consult Oddschecker to compare bookies and their odds and offers

The Runners (well, some of them)
We'll not get through all 40 of them, but let's start from the top of the betting

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
The 7/1 favourite and mount of AP McCoy in his final ever Grand National- it's worth looking elsewhere for value, though. Won the 2014 Irish Grand National, however that's not really proved a springboard for horses to go on to greater things, and hasn't been seen since triumphing over a middling field over 3m 1/2f at Carlisle in November- 8 year olds have a poor record here, too

ROCKY CREEK
5th in last year's running of this race, there's every chance the 10/1 2nd favourite could place again this year, having romped a warm-up race at Kempton. 9 years old and coming into his prime for Paul Nicholls, very much one to consider despite carrying plenty of weight

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW
Romped a competitive handicap at Cheltenham last month, which saw his price for this tumble from 33/1 into its current 12/1. His jumping was fluent in that, plus he appeared to have plenty in hand, and goes off a decent weight in this. Concerns are over his stamina (has never won over more than 3m 6f) and his age (it's 13 years since an 8 year old won this), but if he can stay clear of trouble early on he's got a real chance

FURIOUS D
Given a new bad-ass attitude, show him some latitude and you'll win his gratitude. Unfortunately hasn't made the cut for this year's running, due mainly to the fact that the Springfield Derby doesn't count as a qualifying race
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MONBEG DUDE
A real mudlark who has experience round these fences before, finishing 7th here last year under a similar weight and a former Welsh National winner. Unlikely to get the ground he needs, though, and while he should stay the distance, there's faster horses in the race over the distance

PINEAU DE RE
Last year's winner lines up again aiming to become the first horse to win back-to-back Grand Nationals since 1974. He's had a low-key build up to this year's run, just as last year, under Dr Richard Newland. Now 12 years old (it's 11 years since a horse that age triumphed here) and carrying 8lbs more than last year, you'd fancy him to have a decent chance of getting round again, but will probably be outpaced by others

OSCAR TIME
The real veteran of this race at 14 years old, he has a tremendous record in this race, placing 2nd in 2011 and 4th in 2013, as well as winning the Becher Chase at Aintree back in December. Were he any younger than 14 (nothing that age has won since 1853) then the 50/1 currently available on him would be genuinely outstanding- as it is, while he should run well for a while, he may just be found wanting at the end

ACROSS THE BAY
Hugely unlucky in both 2013 and 2014, where loose horses hampered him when leading onto the 2nd circuit- was unfortunate again at Cheltenham when brought down by another horse. This year sees him carrying less weight than both his previous 2 Grand National attempts- he's also fond of front-running, so may be worth backing for a bit of interest in the 1st half of the race- stamina won't be far off, and he's surely due a change of luck

GAS LINE BOY
An interesting 100/1 outsider. Was in decent form before Christmas before a slightly disappointing showing at Haydock in February- when you're only 4th in a race won by Harry the Viking, something's not right. Has demonstrated he's a decent stayer, but it would be a big ask for his jumping to hold up over 30 fences in a 40 horse field

There you have (some of) it, folks. Enjoy the big race











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