Friday 30 October 2009

A few random bets to tickle your fancy this weekend

Here's a few random bets that have taken my fancy this weekend. Back with a mixture of caution, and pay-day-fuelled gusto:

  • Arsenal are 4/6 with Ladbrokes to beat Tottenham in the Saturday lunchtime game. No amount of statistics can accurately portray just how good a bet this is, but OK then, here's a couple. Witness Spurs' complete capitulation against Manchester United and Chelsea this season- their opening day win against Liverpool was a flash in the pan, not a sign of a genuine sustained top 4 challenge. Also, Arsenal don't generally lose home games- witness even their dismantling of Portsmouth and Birmingham this season- perhaps they are finally mastering the art of breaking teams down at home
  • A red card in the Manchester United v Blackburn Rovers game. Referee Phil Dowd has issued 4 red cards in his 8 Premier League games so far this season, and has in the past issued no fewer than 5 red cards to Manchester United players, including being a prominent member of the I Have Sent Off Paul Scholes Club (global membership is estimated at 267). Given that Man Utd have had 2 red cards in 3 days, and that Rovers tend to favour a, shall we say, "combative" approach, Dowd could be well be delving into his top pocket in the Saturday teatime game. Paddy Power offer 9/2 on there being a red card in the match
  • Livingston to beat Montrose. Livingston will, in all probability, have too much firepower in their squad for the rest of the 3rd Division to cope with, and it's difficult to see struugling Montrose offering much resistance tomorrow. Livingston are 8/13 with Blue Square
  • If you're going for Arsenal to win at 4/6 tomorrow, then you can cover yourself with Paddy Power offering 7/5 on the double chance Tottenham / Draw. As for a random punt on this one, how about Arshavin 6/1 1st goalscorer?

Silly Graeme's Bet Here's




With Tottenham undergoing their traditional complete loss of form as the clocks go back, compounded by the suspicious team selections that have nothing to do with Harry seeking ever more funds this coming January (http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Harry_Redknapp ), we can expect to see a heavy defeat for Spurs in the early kick-off this Saturday.
Arsenal to win 3-1: 10/1 @ William Hill
Fortress Turf Moor!
Hull and Brown to sink- 1-0 Burnley
Weekend Accumulator:
Chelsea to win
Sunderland to win
Stoke Wolves Draw
Fulham Torres Draw
30/1 @ William Hill

Friday 23 October 2009

Can't get that 99 Red Balloons song out of me head

Here's this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:

Saturday Accumulator:

Wolves v Villa- Draw
Burnley v Wigan- Home Win
Coventry v West Brom- Home Win
Crystal Palace v Forest- Home Win (Forest will not get 6 wins in a row)
Queen of the South v Airdrie- Home Win

Ladbrokes accumulator odds: 65/1

Sunday Accumulator:

Liverpool v Man Utd- Home Win
Man City v Fulham- Home Win
West Ham v Arsenal- Away Win

6/1 @ William Hill

Liverpool v Man Utd:
1st goalscorer, Yossi Benayoun @ 8/1, William Hill
1st card to Man Utd @ 8/11, William Hill

xxxxxxxxxx

Thursday 22 October 2009

Tottenham v Stoke City, Saturday 24th October

My Thoughts

Tottenham have made a very impressive start to this season- only Manchester United and Chelsea, the two teams above them in the leage right now- have managed to beat Harry Redknapp's side, and it's no secret that Spurs' start to the season has been down to the form of their frontmen, with Jermain Defoe, Peter Crouch and Robbie Keane all in fine goalscoring form, and all contributing to Spurs' total of 21 league goals so far, an average of 2.33 per game. However, question marks still linger over a defence which has only kept 1 Premier League clean sheet this season, and Redknapp will no doubt complain before Saturday's match about 1 or more of his cente-backs being out injured. Get your excuses in early, eh Harry?

Stoke have made a solid start to their Difficult Second Season. They currently reside in 9th place, although they are no more aesthetically pleasing than last season, with complementary neck braces still de rigeur at the Britannia Stadium. Their away record last season was woeful, and while this season they have managed 3 draws on their travels, Tony Pulis' side still face a very difficult task if they are to get anything from this one.

The Verdict
As previously stated, Stoke will make Spurs work for this one. Expect Stoke to favour the aerial route, and possibly just James Beattie (this writer must admit he is puzzled by the lack of "Beattie for England" calls) on his own up top, to try and work whatever makeshift defence Redknapp has spent £20 million on. However, expect Spurs' superior quality in midfield, and greater potency in atttack (even without the suspended Defoe) to eventually shine through and lead to a home win.

The Bet
Spurs are available outright at 2/5 with Blue Square. Due to Spurs' defensive record, it's difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet, therefore a scorecast of 2-1 Spurs could be considered, especially as a tough, combative Stoke side are unlikely to let them walk this one

Sunday 18 October 2009

Weekend Betting Review

Here's how my tips fared this weekend:

Aston Villa to beat Chelsea @ 7/2: 1 unit returns 4.5
HT/FT Villa/Villa: 1 unit returns 0
HT/FT Draw/Villa @ 9/1: 1 unit returns 10
Double Chance: Draw/Villa @ evens: 1 unit returns 2
Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 1 unit returns 0

Sunderland to beat Liverpool @ 11/4: 1 unit returns 3.75
Sunderland and Liverpool to draw: 1 unit returns 0
Own goal being scored: 1 unit returns 0

Total outlay: 8 units
Total return: 20.25 units
Total return - outlay: 12.25 units
Return/expenditure: 253.125%

Remember, Official Blog Party today at 1pm, Morrisons Pub, Stirling

Friday 16 October 2009

Sunderland v Liverpool, Saturday 17th October

My Thoughts

With speculation mounting that both of Liverpool's players, Gerrard and Torres, will miss this game, expect money to be pouring into bets backing the draw and Sunderland- indeed Liverpool outright have gone from 4/6 to 11/10 in some places today, although this writer will stop short of predicting that they could drift as far as 96/1.

As for Sunderland, having personally seen them (from way up in K Stand Tier 2) very nearly beat Manchester United, this writer feels qualified to say that they are a very decent side. Hard-working lads such as Phil Bardsley and Lee Cattermole would most likely fancy their chances at tackling a Robot XI featuring a mechanised Michelin Man in goals, Sergeant Bash and Killalot from Robot Wars at full-back, Megatron from Transformers in central defence and a midfield 7 consisting entirely of Storm Troopers (with regards to Saturday's match, one cannot help but feel Lucas and Ryan Babel would not enjoy said battle quite as much), such is their willingness to run, kick, tackle and be general hard bastards for the Wearisde cause. Guile and industry is provided by talented midfielders such as Lorik Cana, Steed Malbranque and Andy Reid. Kieran Richardson also plays for Sunderland. Up top, Darren Bent and Kenwyne Jones are arguably the in-form strike partnership in the Premier League.

Contrast this with Liverpool's situation, where they were second best in their last game away at Chelsea, and now having to face a tricky away trip to an in-form Sunderland side off the back of what has been an expensive international week, and it's all of a sudden very possible to make a case for Sunderland to get some sort of result in this one.

The Verdict
Forget Chelsea last weekend, this is where we're going to get the best idea of what are left of Liverpool's title-winning credentials. No Gerrard, no Torres, fatigued players (Mascherano and Lucas were late back from South America this week), if Benitez's squad (and it will be the depth of their squad as much as anything that will be tested on Saturday) are really up to the task, then Saturday is the time to prove it. Nevertheless, there's a real vibe, an air of confidence that Steve Bruce has brought to Sunderland, and this writer fancies them to take another result off a top 4 side this weekend.

The Bet
As alluded to earlier, Sunderland's odds are shortening, and will most likely continue to do so right up until kick-off. For the win, Bruce's men are currently around a general 11/4, and are unlikely to drop below 2/1 prior to kick-off, with the draw following a similar pattern from its current 12/5. In terms of alternative markets, have a wee think about an own goal being scored, best price 15/2 with Paddy Power. Last week Anton Ferdinand put through his own net for Sunderland, with John Mensah having done likewise the previous weekend. There's a belter of a quiz question been doing the rounds recently as well: which current Premier League English player has scored the most Premier League goals against Liverpool?
Answer to follow next week

Aston Villa v Chelsea Odds

Half-time/Full-time:
Draw/Aston Villa: 9/1 Coral
Aston Villa/Aston Villa: 8/1 totesport
Double Chance: Aston Villa / Draw: evens with Paddy Power

Frank Lampard anytime scorer: 13/5 with Coral

From the Dungeon of Decrepitude...

Emerges Graeme, with this week's edition of Graeme's Silly Bet:




After a humdinger of an international week with more dead rubbers than can be found on Dwight Yorke's bedroom floor (copyright James Richardson), it's a return to the trudge of the Premiership this weekend.


What better exemplifies the word trudge than the combined towns of Blackburn and Burnley. All Northern, grey, with everyone wearing flatcaps and munching on HOVIS BREAD!

In truth, there is nothing grey about these two sides. Part of all the glitz of the Premier League, they both try to play football in an attractive manner.
With Big Sam's Blackburn side searching for a healthy response to their last game which included an Emirates spanking for having the audacity to dare to attack a highly impressive Arsenal side. Couple that with Burnley's nifty start to the season- while they've been capable of great performances (including a 1-0 win over Team Manchester), they've also, at times, been terrible (Tottenham 5 Burnley 0)- this gives us the potential for a pulsating game come noon+1 on Sunday. Official Blog Party in the MCB pub for this game on Sunday. Come on down for a beer and a burger.
Silly 1 game treble tip- all odds from bet365
Blackburn to win @ 8/11
Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20
Under 11 corners @ 10/11
Furthermore, another cheeky 50p punt which may be worth it is Arsenal and Birmingham to draw. Mcleish's men have taken 2 draws at the Emirates from their last 6 games there, and bet365 go 6/1 on the draw
I love James Richardson

Aston Villa v Chelsea, Saturday 17th October

My Thoughts

After the international break, we're back to league business this weekend, and this fixture looks one of the more interesting on the list. Aston Villa's form this season is good- they are in a fairly solid 7th position, with key men such as Gabriel Agbonlahor and James Milner beginning to find their form again. One of Villa's key strengths is the ability of their wide players, Milner and Ashley Young, to find space and cross the ball for powerful centre-forwards such as Agbonlahor, John Carew and Emile Heskey. Admittedly, they lack a plan B (apart from the pace of Agbonlahor against teams playing a high defensive line), but, given the narrow midfield preferred by Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti this season, it is a tactic that could well give some reward against Chelsea- expect Ancelotti to favour the more defensively-minded right-back Branislav Ivanovic over the quicksilver Jose Bosingwa against Young.

One of Ancelotti's main concerns going into this game will no doubt be fatigue- many of his players were in various far-flung corners of the earth this week on international duty. Indeed, Michael Ballack is an injury doubt having been on the receiving end of a challenge from club team-mate Yuri Zhirkov in last Saturday's Russia v Germany game. Ancelotti, who does welcome Petr Cech back from suspension, must also wrestle with the prospect of a Champions League encounter with Atletico Madrid in midweek.

The Verdict
Plenty to consider here. Both sides have had players away on international duty this week, although Chelsea's squad (which is not actually that big) will have been tested more, and Chelsea's full-backs must now prepare themselves for a thorough examining by Villa's wingmen, who will be key. If they are to win this one, Chelsea must impose themselves in the middle of the park, and look to isolate Villa's attack (ominously for Villa, Frank Lampard has gone 9 games without scoring for Chelsea). However, Villa's recent record at home to Chelsea is very good, and this writer fancies them to edge this one. Jose Mourinho's last Premier League defeat as Chelsea manager came at Villa Park- could it be the scene of Ancelotti's first?

The Bet
Stat attack: Villa have scored 70% of their goals in the 1st half of matches so far this season, and have conceded 67% of their goals in the 2nd, which points to lots of high-tempo stuff early on, before sitting back, possibly through fatigue. Odds will follow on HT/FT Villa-Villa and Draw-Villa, as well as Lampard anytime scorer, but Villa to win outright can be backed at 7/2 with Blue Square

Tuesday 13 October 2009

International Weekend Review

Well, well, well, readers. Here's my review of Saturday's bets

Germany to beat Russia (15/8)- 1 unit returns 2.875
Ireland and Italy to draw (15/8)- 1 unit returns 2.875
Denmark to beat Sweden (6/5)- 1 unit returns 2.2
Stirling Albion to beat Arbroath- 1 unit returns 0

Total expenditure: 4 units
Total return: 7.95
Return/expenditure: 198.75%

Many of you intrepid readers (and I do believe there are 2) may have noticed Graeme betting against this writer this weekend. May I take this opportunity to reassure y'all that my triumphs this weekend enabled me to finance the construction of a Dungeon of Decrepitude, where Graeme will be residing this week.

Friday 9 October 2009

The Dos and Don'ts of International Weekends

Given that there aren't as many matches on this weekend (and, I'll level with you, readers: I don't consider mayself knowledgeable enough about the current squads of Austria and Lithuania to write up their match tomorrow), I thought I'd impart some of my "wisdom" when it comes to betting on internationals:
  • DO research in your normal way: past results, league tables, form guides, notes on players, etc. The pointers to results for club teams remain the same in international football
  • DO back Germany at 15/8 away to Russia tomorrow- an absolute stunner of a price at Coral. Speaking of great prices on the Germans, they are a massive 11/1 to win the World Cup
  • DON'T just put the big teams to beat minnows on outright. These bets, even on an accumulator, offer no value. France at 1/100 to beat the Faroe Islands is a somewhat pointless bet, likewise Portugal at 2/11 to beat Hungary. Bookies are notoriously stingy on these games, due to the number of casual punters who will pile in on them
  • DO think about the supposed smaller sides, especially at the moment. Liechtenstein are biting back, after years of ineptitude. Andorra recently scored a goal. Bosnia, once also-rans, are on the verge of a play-off place. Montenegro are an emerging outfit, with talent in attack such as Stvean Jovetic and Mirko Vucinic. And, last but by no means least, earlier on in this qualifying campaign: Switzerland 1 Luxembourg 2
  • DON'T pay £4.99 or however much this Kentaro mob are charging to watch Ukraine v England. One bookmaker, whose name would suggest that they are open every single day of the year, are streaming it free of charge
  • DO look away from the outright markets for value. As discussed, France are not worth backing outright to beat the Faroe Islands, however over 4.5 goals (and, let's face it: France could well stick 5 or more past the Faroes, given the quality they have in attack) is worth a small stake at evens with Sporting Bet
  • Do take a cheeky look at the lower league action taking place this weekend. This writer would recommend taking a punt on Charlton, Stirling Albion and Queens Park on Saturday

Graeme brings you gambling tips...

....So you don't have to get them yourself. Here's Graeme's Silly Bet for the weekend:

International Madness

7 game (well, 6 game and a pigeon shoot in Paris- Ed) coupon:

The odds for these matches will vary so shop around on your coupon (I really should get some advertising deals for odds checker websites- Ed) but international weekend traditionally means ill-informed punts.

Always assume the diddy teams will lose and Italy to win.

Here we go:

Portugal to beat Hungary
Serbia to beat Romania
Turkey to beat Belgium
France to beat the Faroe Islands
Russia to beat Germany
Switzerland to beat Luxembourg
Italy to beat Ireland

All blog readers invited to Danny's house tomorrow (Saturday) morning at 11 for the Scotland match. He has a big TV and tea making facilities

The only thing better than a round of pointless international fixtures...

...Is a round of some pointless international fixtures (with a few meaningful ones thrown into the equation) with some tasty lower-league ation thrown in as well. Here's me rundown of the weekend's fixtures:

  • Denmark to beat Sweden. The Danes won the reverse fixture 1-0 (although in reality it was more comfortable than that), and a win at home to an underwhelming Sweden side will secure their place (and therefore that of many, many, many cases of Carlsberg) in South Africa next summer
  • Republic of Ireland and Italy to draw. Italy have been somewhat unconvicing in this qualifying campaign, with many of their household names now the wrong side of 30. They were very poor in the Confederations Cup this summer, and could only manage a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture against Giovanni Trappattoni's improving yet functional side
  • Germany to beat Russia. You can never rule out those Germans, even against Arshavin and co. They're also worth seriously considering to win the thing outright.

For my final tip, I'm going to dip into the Scottish Second Division and advise y'all to back Stirling Albion to beat Arbroath

'Mon Don Cowie for Scotland

Friday 2 October 2009

Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 4th October

My Thoughts

This weekend sees another BIG TOP 4 OMG THE APOCALYPSE IS COMING SUPERAMAZING FORD SUPER FANTASTIC SUNDAY SHOWDOWN!!!!! in the Premier League (suppose the La Liga is Better League isn't such a great name), with Chelsea and Liverpool going tete-a-tete, once bar staff throughout the nation return their tables and chairs to their rightful places after the Old Firm game.

Both sides, it has to be said, were disappointing on Champions League duty in midweek; although Chelsea laboured to a 1-0 win away at APOEL Nicosia, Liverpool were horsed 2-0 away at Fiorentina, which resulted in one unhappy fat Spanish waiter.

The Verdict
Given their recent results (and the tendency of these matches to be somewhat underwhelming affairs), expect a mixture of tedious dullness and dull tediousness. Due to Petr Cech's suspension, Chelsea will start with either Hilarious or the slightly more amusing Ross Turnbull in goals. In attack, Nicolas Anelka v Jamie Carragher looks set to resemble an encounter between a bulldozer and a Lambourghini. For Liverpool, Javier Mascherano could return to kick people (the number of hatchet men who could be deployed in this one on both sides is staggering, all that would be needed would be Lee Cattermole and Kearney from the Simpsons), while Daniel Agger played for the reserves this week, but is unlikely to be considered.

These matches, as previously stated, have a tendency to be underwhelming, last season's Champions League ding-dong between these two notwithstanding, and it could well come down to which side's two players, I mean star players, perform on the day (Torres and Jukebox Gerrard for Liverpool, Drogba and Rank Lampard for Chelsea), in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair.

The Bet
Under 2.5 goals is available at a general 8/11- these games are also notorious for slow starts, therefore 0-0 at half-time at 17/10 with expekt.com is worth considering. Also, as previously stated, due to the "combative" nature of some of the players likely to be on show, a sending-off in the game at a general 5/2 could be a shout.

You're the man, eh?

Here's Graeme's Silly Bet for the weekend:

It's Fifa 10 Friday so been slow in getting the post out.

No pumping occurred for Rangers last week, made me look foolish and silly. Still, I think Aberdeen are a really poor side and fully expect Kilmarnock to cause them problems. Tasty low scoring draw methinks.

1-1 draw available at 5/1 wth William Hill

Hawick to lose is a bet I wouldn't touch at the moment for fear of police investigation

OLD FIRM MADNESS!!!!

Ranger are still abject, mind you so are Celtic
3-0 Celtic available at 28/1 with William Hill

Premiership: Man Utd v Sunderland (Shifty will be attending this game. K Stand Tier 2)
Any goal scored in injury time, 15/4. Amidst the recent controversy (what controversy? Ed) could be worth a fateful cheeky punt

Good luck over the weekend, whatever market you bet in
xxxxxxx

Rangers v Celtic, Sunday 4th October

My Thoughts

A mixed week in European competition for these two sides: Rangers were taught a lesson in counterattacking football from Master Manolo Jimenez and his grade-A students from Sevilla, while Celtic will be pleased that they didn't lose their game. Both teams also have mixed news on the injury front: after their midweek result, Rangers have doubts over Madjid Bougherra (who is lost somewhere in last Tuesday), Davie Weir (as discussed in a previous entry on here), Sasa Papac (who has blurred vision) and Jerome Rothen, who was found in the Sevilla laundry room last night, still in the shorts pocket of their right-back, Abdoulay Konko. The NHS have also been in contact with Rangers regarding Allan McGregor's goalkeeping jersey, requesting that it come with a health warning, due to the likelihood of it causing seizures. Celtic, on the other hand, look set to have Andreas Hinkel and Paddy McCourt (Old Firm side in signing Irish player shocker) back in contention, after both players missed their 1-1 draw with Rapid Vienna.

The Verdict
Last season's Old Firm games were as tight as ever, save for Rangers' 4-2 win at Celtic Park last August. The last 4 meetings between the 2 sides have produced just 4 goals, so we're certainly due a few. Given the horsing that Rangers back line took at the hands of Sevilla, Tony Mowbray must be optimistic for his first Old Firm derby as a manager. Celtic to edge it, perhaps by the odd goal in 5

The Bet
Of course, my talking up of the possibility of goals could turn out to be a load of rubbish. If so, 1-0 Rangers is available at 7/1 with totesport, with 1-0 Celtic 15-2 at Skybet. However, over 3.5 goals is also worth a look, currently available at 10/3 with Extrabet. The same bookie also offers 5/2 on Scott McDonald to score anytime, following his goal in midweek and after scoring at Ibrox last season. For Rangers, Nacho Novo has been the scourge of Celtic in the past- he's available at 3/1 with Skybet to score anytime