Weekend Betting, Saturday 21st January

Big weekend of soccer matches coming up (although, to be honest, they're all going to be big now. We're getting towards the part of the season where the football actually gets good), let's have a look at what we can have a punt on:

• Newcastle away at Fulham firstly. The Geordies are currently shorn of 2 key men in Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba, along with new number 9 Papiss Demba Cisse. However, despite an arguably poor performance they still had more than enough to see of QPR last weekend. Fulham are wildly inconsistent this season, and were extremely poor last time out away at Blackburn. An improvement at home will be hoped for, but Newcastle are well worth backing, with 3/1 generally available


• Stoke at home to West Brom has home win written all over it. West Brom's early-mid season form has tailed off badly, with Woy Hodgson's side winless in the league since early December and facing a Stoke side against whom they have a horrible recent record- 2 draws and 7 defeats for West Brom in their last 9 meetings. With the Europa League put to bed until the middle of next month, Stoke have recovered their league form, and are available at 11/10 to triumph with Hills. Get on that if you know what's good for you


• As regular readers will know, I like a bit of trend-spotting. I like to find a reliable bet with good returns and stick it on most weeks. Last season, that was backing Norwich to win most games, which itself replaced Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. This season has yet to produce such a bet, apart from, well..er...Norwich again. The on-form Canaries are available at 5/1 to pull off a win against a slightly unconvincing Chelsea, shorn currently of Didier Drogba. They are not, though, without a goal threat, with Juan Mata adapting well to English football. He's 2/1 to score anytime today against a Norwich defence that has ye to keep a clean sheet this season


• Outside the Premier League, there are a plethora of teams at backable odds today, among them Barnsley, Birmingham, Bournemouth and Carlisle

Tuck in

Why Andy Carroll IS Worth £35 Million

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But the price tag being bandied about for Carroll can be justified. Here's how.

At 22, Anrew Thomas Carroll still has the majority of his career ahead of him, and has already established himself in the Premier League and with the England national team. Given that his playing style is not overly reliant on pace, which usually a player starts to lose once they reach 30, it's not unreasonable to speculate that he has perhaps 12-15 years of top-flight and international football to look forward to. Given his current level of ability, allied to his future potential, his market value based purely on that is probably somewhere in the region of £15 million.

There are, however, more factors in a transfer fee than just that. Firstly, Carroll's English nationality and junior coaching at Newcastle means he counts as a "home-grown" player, of which each Premier League club must have at least 8 in their 25 man squad, with a similar rule in existence in European competition. Given the dearth of talented English players capable of performing regularly at the highest level, players such as Carroll are much sought-after, thereby increasing their market value- a recent example of this would be the £24 million Aston Villa paid for Darren Bent. Liverpool in particular are short on this type of player.

What also must be considered is the impact Carroll's departure at such a late stage in the transfer window would have on Newcastle. Should the transfer go through, Newcastle would have very little time to source a replacement for Carroll, and given that the prospective fee has been so publicised, this would hinder them in negotiations with other clubs (for example, should Newcastle offer £10 million for a new striker, why should the selling club not push them for more, knowing that Newcastle had £35 million in the bank?), and also leaves them surely too little time to bring in a replacement from overseas. The bracketed argument also applies to Newcastle as the club selling Carroll to Liverpool, with Liverpool's £50 million sale of Fernando Torres set to be completed.

Newcastle would also have to deal with the loss of a player who has scored almost 31% of their league goals this season. Should they fail to sign a striker to replace Carroll (and perhaps even if they do, as the prospective new striker settles in and Newcastle make any adjustment required to their playing style), they would have to deal with the increased possibility of finishing further down the league than their current 9th position, and perhaps even relegation.

And that is why Andy Carroll is worth £35 million

Graeme's Silly Bet for Saturday 13th February

Just a quick one tonight as I am stuck up at the university trying to write my dissertation

However, upon leaving this morning I managed to place myself a cheeky little number for Saturday. Surprised at how good the return will be if it comes up as well

Here goes:

Chelsea to beat Cardiff
Newcastle to beat Swansea
Celtic to beat an understrength Aberdeen
Dundee to beat Ayr
Partick to beat Airdrie
Stirling to bounce back away to Dumbarton
Queens Park to beat Montrose

£5 pays out £287.12

Here is hoping..

Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Sunday 24th May

My Thoughts

The task for Alan Shearer's side here is simple: they must win. While Hull are just 1 point (and with an inferior goal difference) ahead, Shearer will know not to expect any favours from Sir Alex Ferguson, who will surely take a side (this writer is reluctant to use the word "weakened" to describe the side that Manchester United will field on Sunday: the likes of Darron Gibson, Danny Welbeck, Tomasz Kuszczak and Richard Eckersley would be likely starters for Hull) to the KC Stadium with 2 eyes on Rome. He will also be aware that, while an away win is required, Newcastle have managed just 2 of them this season in the Premier League. Their recent 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Middlesbrough proved something of a false dawn, followed as it was by a 1-0 defeat at home to Fulham. Not only did they lose the match, they also lost the services of centre-back (and many supporters' player of the season) Sebastien Bassong to a red card. He may not fancy Championship football next season.

Having said all that, Villa haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders of late themselves. A 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford (appreciative nod to Kiko Macheda) not only extinguished any hope Martin O'Neill's side had of Champions League football next season, but also exposed Villa as something of a long-ball outfit, reliant on the knock-downs of Carew or Heskey in order to utilise the pace of Young and Agbonlahor. They have won just once since that match. Their home record this season (6-9-3) does leave a lot to be desired, and will need to be improved upon next season if they are to break into the top 4. Villa were poor in both their last 2 games, only claiming a point against Middlesbrough due to some woeful defending. Their season is very much ending with something of a whimper, the lack of depth in their squad having been exposed.

The Verdict
Newcastle have managed only 3 clean sheets away from home this season. It gets worse- all 3 of those were kept by Shay Given. However, at this stage of the season, it would be folly to get too bogged down by statistics. Instead, this match will require Newcastle's players to be brave, to show character, and to have quality to take any chances that may come their way. The side will be well aware that they have massively underachieved this season, and now must pull off a result here to ensure this season is a disappointment, not a disaster. They might just do it.

The Bet
Newcastle can be backed at 6/4 to stay up with Skybet. There is just about enough quality in the side to get a result against an out-of-sorts Aston Villa side. In terms of the match itself, Newcastle can be backed at a best price of 11/5 to win with extrabet. Now let's hope theses prices stay where they are, after the massive pre-match movements on the prices last night