Some Tips and Thoughts for 2011

Happy New Year, y'all!

Now, being the generous soul I am, I thought I'd furnish you with a few of my thoughts and tips for 2011. Here goes:

• At least 1 Midlands side will be relegated. Currently occupying 20th place are Wolves, and they look most likely to go down, due to their extreme difficulties in scoring and preventing the concession of goals. Last season, their home record kept them up, as their away form was honking. This season, however, their away form has remained honking (4 points from trips to Merseyside are all they have garnered thus far from 10 away games) while their home record of 4-2-4 leaves much to be desired. They are little better than 1/2 across the board to go down. Along with them, another Midlands team with dreadful away form, Birmingham City could well go down, as they too have seen a previously excellent home record disintegrate somewhat- they are 3-5-2 at home thus far. Frankly, Alex Mcleish's side would not be missed, with their defensive, physical approach and their continued deployment of Leeds Council Asian Community Outreach Officer Lee Bowyer. 32RED will give you 11/5 on Birmingham returning to the Championship
  
• Regular readers of this blog will know of my love for all bets based on Darren Bent scoring. His continued good form this season, along with Wayne Rooney's lack of proficiency infront of goal, means that the circa 3/1 currently on offer on Betfair for Bent to be the Top English Goalscorer in the Premier League should be snapped up


• The Premier League title is Manchester United's to lose.They have the ability and experience required to make it to the finishing line 1st, even though most of their performances this season have been at best average. The know-how of "Golden Oldies" Giggs, Scholes and van der Sar (Gary Neville might be old, but he certainly hasn't been golden when he's played this season), allied to the match-winning abilities of the likes of Nani (who had a sparkling 2010), Berbatov, Park (the scourge of Arsenal), Rooney (whose goal against West Brom might just see him kick on again) and Hernandez should see United claim a 19th league title. This side isn't up to the standard of Arsenal's 2003/04 unbeaten vintage or the Treble-winning side of 1998/99 (Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan, pictured, would never have got near that side), but it's arguably the strongest of the current league. Betfred will give you Evens on the Premier League trophy returning to Old Trafford. He can't understand why you'd bet anywhere else, and with that price, neither can I
  

Fancy a rummage in the January sales? Me neither. Get your hard-earned cash on those treats

• Anyone see that Simpsons episode (around about season 14 I think) where Mr Burns buys up every media outlet in Springfield apart from Lisa's Red Dress Press, where she inspires the residents of Springfield to oppose Burns' empire by starting their own newspapers? Well, I'd like to think of myself as Lisa to Mr Burn's Rupert Murdoch. Check out Graeme's Rant at http://gtm999.blogspot.com
• The Guardian is a great newspaper

FAO JAMES DART: I WANT A PLACE IN YOUR 100 FOR 2012

200 Not Out

Ladies, gentlemen, boys, girls and the ruler of the planet Omicron Persei 8 (actually, who am I kidding? No girls read this), history today is made, for this will be my 200th post on this here blog! Many thanks to all who have read and contributed since the birth of this blog sometime early last year. This special 200th post will feature a bit of everything that we've tried to encapsulate since we started:

Tottenham might not win the Premier League or the Champions League. But we're certainly having fun watching them try
Harry Redknapp's side's Champions League debut has been most impressive, topping what looked like a tricky group (even moreimpressive after being pillaged by Young Boys for the first 30 minutes of their first qualifier), playing with real attacking gumption, while also maintaining a league position on the shoulder of the leading pack. With their impressive array of attacking options, their games have tended to be particularly entertaining, with their 16 league matches so far featuring an average of 2.8125 goals (regular readers of this blog will know of my belief that the under/over 2.5 goals stat is as good an indicator as any of a side's entertainment value and attacking potency). Even more impressively, their 8 European games so far have seen that average rise to a frankly preposterous 4.75 goals per game. Even their 0-0 draw on the opening day at home to man citeh was entertaining, as their attack peppered Joe Hart's goal with shot after shot. Their clash with Chelsea at White Hart Lane on Sunday is massive for both sides

Manchester United might have finally found replacements for Giggs and Scholes- it's just taken Sunderland and Wigan for them to realise this
The form of Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley during their loan spells has been particularly impressive. The technical abilities of the pair have never been in doubt, with the players now gaining invaluable Premier League experience (along with England Under 21 honours) in preparation for, they hope, places in Man Utd's first team next season. Both have also proved to be extremely versatile performers, with Welbeck impressing for Sunderland both upfront and from the left wing, and Cleverley featuring right across Wigan's midfield, capable of both pulling the strings from a central position, and running at full-backs and providing industry from the wings

Now, some tips for this weekend (assuming the games go ahead)

• West Brom's form appears to have picked up after a recent slump, and they make the short trip to Villa Park in good spirits having won their last 2 league games, and with Villa seriously out of form themselves, Coral's 11/4 on the Baggies to triumph looks massive. Worth a punt, especially considering this writer priced them up at 9/5
• There's much that unites Stoke and Blackpool- fond memories of Stanley Matthews, larger than life characters in charge and defiance of expectations in the Premier League. However, there's much that divides them, too, most notably their styles of play. While Stoke's physical, direct style is well-documented, Blackpool's quick, attack-minded gameplan has been a breath of fresh air, although it does leave them exposed to the sort of rapid counter-attacks that experienced Premier League teams are well-versed in, and the evolution in Tony Pulis' side that has seen them bring in speedy, direct wingmen Matthew Etherington and Jermaine Pennant means the Potters can now execute these kind of breaks, as well as offering a significant threat from set-pieces, another area Blackpool have been found wanting in on occasion this season. Admittedly Betfred's 4/6 on the home win is shorter than the 11/10 this writer has priced them at, it's still worth your while taking advantage of it
• Sky's advent of Monday Night Football (well, it was actually the NFL that came up with it) was designed for matches like Man Utd v Arsenal, a crucial game for both sides- a win for either side would be a huge boost for their title chances, with the top 4 all playing one another in the coming weeks. Last season, this clash very much went to stereotype- Arsenal dominating early on with some majestic football but failing to capitalise, with their defensive frailties costing them late in the game. These traits are still very much a part of their game, meaning Sportingbet's 28/1 on half-time/full-time Arsenal/Man Utd should be considered
• Wanna have a guess at what price you'll get on Real Sociedad, 6th in La Liga, having won their last 2 (including the Basque derby conquering of Athletic Bilbao), to win away at Barcelona on Sunday? Victor Chandler will give you 33/1. Yep, that's right, 33/1. A quid on them nets you £34 if they beat Pep Guardiola's superteam. Tempted?
• Have a wee flutter on the mighty Staggies tomorrow. New manager Willie McStay takes Ross County to Partick Thistle tomorrow, with Blue Square offering 7/4 on County taking all 3 points

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

After a long time away, the midweek stupid bet returns
This week I'm focusing on the UEFA secondary competition, the Europa League

Metalist Kharkiv to beat Debrecen
Hajduk Split to beat AEK Athens
Getafe to beat Odense BK
PSV to beat Sampdoria
Young Boys to beat Stuttgart
Zenit St Petersburg to beat Anderlecht
Levski Sofia to beat AA Gent
Atletico Madrid to beat Aris
Juventus to beat Lech Poznan
Man City to beat Red Bull Salzburg
Bayer Leverkusen to beat Rosenborg
Sporting to beat Lille

Place £1 on that at William Hill and it's 5975/1

I'm off out to the bookies to secure 6 grand. Tata now

Weekend Betting, Saturday 27th November

Scottish Category 1 referess may be on strike this weekend, but this writer isn't, so here's a look at this weekend's somewhat truncated fixture list:

• Aston Villa v Arsenal looks interesting, with one team managed by a Frenchman featuring plenty of talented youngsters who like to play quick, counter-attacking football but have been prone to late defensive lapses in recent weeks against...erm...you get the picture. Arsenal have lost their last 2 and must also now do without Cesc Fabregas for a couple of weeks, however they do have alternatives for his position, with Samir Nasri or Tomas Rosicky likely to play in Fabregas' advanced central midfield position, meaning they still possess a potent goal threat for an Aston Villa defence that is not always the most mobile. Villa themselves possess considerable attacking threat, with Ashley Young and Barry Bannan in particular thriving under the management of Gerard Houllier, and more than capable of troubling an Arsena backline that has looked distinctly unsettled without Thomas Vermaelen. All this makes the generally available 10/11 on over 2.5 goals worth snapping up
• After their impressive start, West Brom's form has nosedived, with the Baggies now dowin in 16th place in the league. Everton, meanwhile, have recovered somewhat form their traditional awful start, and can be backed at a general 4/7 to beat Roberto di Matteo's side at Goodison Park
• Quick word of warning for anyone blindly sticking Celtic on their accumulator tomorrow. Their opponents, caley thistle, are unbeaten in the league away from home for 364 days. That's not the sort of stat you oppose lightly
• It's El Clasico on Monday night (yes, Monday night. It's unknown if anyone's actually pleased about this), with Barcelona v Real Madrid set to feature a dramatic contrast in playing styles and mentalities. Madrid will travel to the Camp Nou set on not losing the game and will most likely look to frustrate Barcelona, therefore it's worth backing them to manage this at least until half time, with 0-0 half-time available at 5/2 with Blue Square

"Wonder if Brewster likes Willie. Maybe he'd be convinced if Willie got Wood"

Shifty and Graeme's (and Danny and Rory's) Latest Big Blog Adventure

Saturday 6th November 2010, Falkirk v Ross County

12:10pm
Graeme, Danny and Rory arrive in Falkirk, at Falkirk Grahamston station, conveniently situated in the centre of the town, and within walking distance of the imaginatively-named Falkirk Stadium. Shifty, however, due to Scotrail engineering works, ends up at Falkirk High station, which is on the other side of town, and therefore has to make a 20-minute cross-town trek to meet up with his chums. Why does a town the size of Falkirk need 2 railway stations anyway?

12:30
The group meet up in the Behind the Wall pub, and the first round of pints are ordered. The group notice that the pub are running a bus to the game, and then back to the pub afterwards, for free for anyone buying drinks. After some deilberation, the group decide to take up this offer of a free lift to the game.

12:50
Danny suggests a game- 20 questions, with the subject matter being obscure SPL and EPL players from the mid-1990s onwards. Classic names such as Hicham Zerouali, Theo Snelders, Billy Dodds and Mickael Silvestre all come up. The group also reminisce about the time when Shifty remarked that a particularly depressed-looking Davie Weir, immediately after one of Rangers' Champions League shellackings, looked like "his wife just died". NB: This is of course untrue. Mrs Weir met her maker throwing herself infront of the king's horse in the derby

13:20
Another drinking game. Name the ground, and if you've been there, take a drink. As the group are all fairly well-travelled, this didn't last long.

13:40
The pub have the Bolton v Tottenham game on. With Bolton winning 3-0, Harry Redknapp's face looks even more hangdog than usual. During the 2nd half, the group all put £1 in a "corner kitty", and every time there is a corner in the match, the kitty moves to the next person. Graeme eventually claims the £4 jackpot

14:20
The bus arrives, and the group head off to the match. Shifty gets heckled for wearing his County top

14:40
The group arrive at the ground and make their way around to the away end, to join a travelling County support of about 200, among them an old boy in a rastafarian hat

15:00
The match kicks off, with Graeme having used his corner kitty jackpot to get the 50-50 tickets in

15:15
Some choice chants are forthcoming: "Referee, ya balloon!", followed by the excellent "Referee, you're about as much use as Anne Frank's drumkit" (Copyright Danny, 2010)

15:27
GOOOAALLL! 1-0 County, Andy Barrowman after some sexual work from Iain Vigurs. Jose Mourinho is said to be monitoring his progress

15:45
Half-time, County deservedly 1-0 up, and playing with some style and panache too. The half-time queue for pies as quite big, though, with only 2 folk serving. By the time the group get to the front, all the pies are gone, meaning Rory has to munch on a jumbo hotdog. This lack of pies leads to some frustration among the more senile members of the travelling support

16:00
The 2nd half kicks off as the group get their munch from the kiosk

16:30
County still leading 1-0 but having to absorb some pressure, although the Staggies do look threatening on the counter-attack. Graeme, while checking other scores on his phone, happens to notice that Celtic are running up a cricket score against Aberdeen

16:50
Peep-peep! Full time 1-0 County. A bully result. The group begin the walk back into town

17:20
The group pitch up in Sportsters, in the town centre, and pints are ordered. Shifty is told to remove his County top. What sort of sports bar doesn't allow its patrons to wear sports kit?
The group find a table next to a PC, and much laughs are had when they find that the most visited website on it is bebo

18:00
The group move on to another pub, the Scotia. Again, Shifty is asked to remove his County top, but the locals are more friendly here, and the group have another pint before heading off home.

20:00
The group arrive back at their own pads, and find that, after all attending County games, home and away, for many moons, they have been dismissed as a "notable fanny element" on the County forum. Happy days

Weekend Betting Preview, Saturday 6th November

Good evening, all. First things first, happy birthday Craig.



Now, down to business. The appearance of this entry on a Thursday has probably left you wondering that this writer is either a) super-organised or b) off out on the bevvy this weekend. It is the latter of those two options, and relates to the aforementioned birthday greeting. So, this weekend's tips, then (with it being a UEFA Cup Thursday, many games are on Sunday):

• In the Premier League (curiously, the more accurate moniker of Bundesliga and La Liga are Better League has yet to catch on), Manchester United should extend their current unbeaten run to 24 games by beating Wolves at Old Trafford on Saturday, despite "Irishman" Mick McCarthy's side's victory over citeh last weekend. Coral's 1/4 on a United win isn't going to make you a millionaire, though, so for a bit more value, have a look at a few other markets. United have been in good goalscoring form of late, and with Wolves shipping an average of just over 2 goals a game away from home, the general 6/10 available on over 2.5 goals should be snapped up. Another market favoured by this writer is the Anytime Goalscorer market- with Darren Fletcher and Anderson likely to miss out injured, and the possibility of Paul Scholes being rested with Wednesday's Manchester derby looming, there could be a starting place for Darron Gibson (SHOOT!) which makes bet365's 4/1 on him to score anytime appealing


• It's FA Cup 1st Round time! There are a number of "David v Goliath" clashes for you to blindly stick on an accumulator, and among them it's worh backing AFC Wimbledon (1/2), Carlisle (2/9), Port Vale (4/7), Hartlepool (4/11), Hereford (2/9) and Notts County (4/11). However, look a bit deeper and you can find a few potential shocks. One of those could take place at Highbury. No, Arsenal haven't decided to rebuild their old pad, but Fleetwood Town of the Conference host Walsall, who are currently bottom of League One, on a poor run of form and with just one league win away from home this season. Fleetwood Town, in decent form themselves, can be backed at a general 9/4 to beat The Saddlers


• As promised earlier, let's have a look at the Brazilian Grand Prix this weekend. The weather is likely to play a significant part in proceedings for Friday and Saturday at least, with a dry race currently forecast, although that could all yet change. If qualifying were to stay dry, then the general 16/1 available on local boy (and Interlagos specialist) Felipe Massa must be snapped up, even if only each-way. Elsewhere, on what is essentially a power circuit, the Mercedes engine is the donkey to have in the back of your motor, and after doing so in the last 2 races, Michael Schumacher could be set for another top 6 finish- Blue Square'll give you 3/1 on him doing just that. He's pretty handy in the wet, too

"I'm a pro athlete, I'm not trying to be the best at exercise"

Preview of Weekend Betting Preview

Ahoy, folks!

A quick line to say that I'll get a preview of this weekend's action up tonight, for tomorrow be featuring a classic game of Friday Football for this writer. I'll also hopefully squeeze in a quick bit about F1. On F1, looks to me judging by this article http://www.autosport.com/features/article.php/id/3151 that Autosport journo Mark Hughes has had his collar felt somewhat by Ferrari. Hughes is a well-respected F1 journalist from the north-east of England, and says his source is someone within the Ferrari team. Hmmm- I wonder if there's anyone in the Ferrari team who would have access to Felipe Massa's telemetry who's also from that part of the world?

Over and out


"What's this one called, Shrek?"

Weekend Betting, Saturday 16th October, and the incontinence problem among bookmakers

Getting these on the now as I'm off to Old Trafford tomorrow. K Stand Tier 2

Here are a few tips for the weekend, then:

• Arsenal, despite their recent aberration at home to West Brom, should have enough to comfortably dispose of a Birmingham side whose recent form can best be described as patchy. Boylesports' 1/3 is probably about right, along with over 2.5 goals at a general 1/2 in a game that usually produces them
• Aston Villa host Chelsea in the 5.30pm game, a fixture that Villa won 2-1 last season. Given this, and that Chelsea will be without Drogba, Lampard and Alex amongst others, the 4/1 generally available on Villa seems good value. This is a fixture that has caught Chelsea out in the past, indeed a trawl through this very blog's archives will produce this writer tipping Villa in this fixture last season. Also, you'll never guess where this writer was the day of that game. Also worth considering in this game is John Carew 1st goalscorer- the giant Norwegian will be relishing the prospect of facing a potentially makeshift Chelsea defence, and is available at a best price of 10/1 with bwin
• There are a few interesting bets to be had in the Championship this weekend. Doncaster to win away at Scunthorpe are great value at 15/8 with Stan James, while another away win in Yorkshire could be seen at Bramall Lane, with Burnley available at a general 7/4 to triumph over inconsistent Sheffield United. The best value bet, though, might just be Norwich to win away at QPR at an outstanding 9/2 with bet365. QPR's excellent start to the season has been well-documented, but Norwich under Paul Lambert have been quietly impressive on their return to the Championship and currently reside in 3rd place. The 9/2 on the Canaries could be a nice single if you're feeling brave, alternatively the double chance Norwich-Draw is available at a general 11/10
• It's official: the bookies have shat themselves! Many have suspended betting on Stirling Albion v Dundee tomorrow, and those that are still running markets have severely shortened Stirling Albion after the redundancies at Dundee today. Of the odds still available, Hills' 6/5 as as good as you'll find (they were 7/4 yesterday), and should be snapped up- Albion must surely now be favourites given the shedding of playing and coaching staff forced upon Dundee
• As regular readers of this blog will know, this writer tends to shy away from betting on his own teams, but the 4/1 offered by Ladbrokes on Ross County to win away at Dunfermline is very tempting, especially considering the return last weekend of strikers Andy Barrowman and Steven Craig for the Staggies

Remember the name, Shinji Kagawa

This Old Chestnut, and some other tips

A few tips coming up, along with an old favourite topic of mine:

England v Montenegro, Tuesday 12th October
Regular readers of this blog will know my feelings about the odds offered on England games, and once again they have gone far too short in their pricing for this game, with England at a general 1/4. Montenegro, despite their lack of experience competing as an independent nation, are not the minnows their 5th seeding for these qualifiers suggests. They are currently ranked 40th in the world (only 3 places below that world footballing superpower the Czech Republic), and have won all 3 of their games in this group so far, putting them well in contention for at least 2nd place in the group. They can be backed outright at a general 14/1, with the draw available at 11/2 with totesport- both are worth a small flutter, or alternatively one should be able to lay England at somewhere close to 4/1. Also, on the handicap market, Montenegro +2 appeals, and if you shop around you should find this bet available above evens. Finally, if you're looking for a couple of anytime goalscorers, then have a wee punt on Steven Gerrard (13/8 with Boylesports), who should be free from the general malaise affecting his club side, and Montenegro's main goal threat, short-lifing Roma striker Mirko Vucinic (19/4 with Unibet)

Ah, international midweeks. Finding value here is extremely difficult, particularly this week, which seems to have even more big team v little team matches than usual. One could fairly safely populate their coupon with Turkey, Germany, Czech Republic, Portugal and France, but there are a few interesting bets out there. Italy are a very tempting 5/6 with Unitbet to win at home to a Serbia side just off the back of a 3-1 home defeat to Estonia, while the general 4/6 on Russia to win in Macedonia should also be snapped up. A final, more speculative punt would be to back in-form Austria at a general 4/1 to win away at inconsistent and inexperienced Belgium. Tuck in, folks

What we've learned so far this season

Here are a few things we've learned so far this season, along with a few tips for this weekend:

Darren Bent- the gift that keeps on giving
Last season, this writer was quick to jump on the Darren Bent 1st goalscorer bandwagon, and made a healthy profit from doing so. He's started this season in good form as well, with 5 Premier League goals so far, 2 of them 1st, as well as getting off the mark internationally. This afternoon he's available at a shade under 7/1 1st goalscorer with Unibet, and 23/10 anytime scorer with Boylesports- outstanding value against a Manchester United defence that has conceded 9 goals in 5 away games in all competitions so far this season

Sir Alex Ferguson may have a sense of humour
When asked about Javier Hernandez's winning goal against Valencia, Sir Alex's response was along the lines of "he needs to work on his physique, but he's a fantastic finisher, it's like shelling peas to him". Hernandez bears the moniker "Chicharito" on the back of his shirt. Chicharito in Hernandez's mother tongue, Spanish, of course means "Little Pea". I'm here all week (Sir Alex isn't, though- he's not talking to anyone from the media for a month)

Steve McClaren is Wolfsburg boss, and was FC Twente boss last season
Commentators, pundits, journalists, WE ALL KNOW THIS. You do not need to remind us every time 1 of the 2 aforementioned teams comes up in conversation

A couple of tasty lower-league bets for you this afternoon
Rochdale (4th in League 1, unbeaten in their last 6, 2-2-0 away) are a very tasty 9/4 to win away at 11th place Exeter, while in League 2 table-topping Port Vale (won their last 5, 4-0-0 away from home) are a shade over (OVER!) 2/1 with Victor Chandler away at 12th-placed Oxford (no wins in their last 3, 1-1-2 at home). Tuck in to those, folks

Alessandro Del Piero: still got it
Il Pinturicchio has been in sparkling form for a stuttering Juventus side this season, and although the 35-year-old has yet to score in Serie A, he has been a joy to watch, creating opportunities for team-mates (and keeping new signing Simone Pepe mostly on the bench) and, along with Serbian winger Milos Krasic, providing flair and incision in an otherwise functional Juventus side. Extrabet offer 9/1 on him to get off the mark with the 1st goal in tomorrow night's game away to Inter

Rant

First and foremost, get well soon Tony. Hearing that the injury is not dissimilar to that suffered by ex-Arsenal striker Eduardo. Also, this writer attaches no blame to Broadfoot, the tackle was a legal one.

However, as the title suggests, there is a rant to be had tonight.

The "performance" of Rangers tonight, and the "tactics" used by the geriatric Walter Smith deserve the most fierce condemnation. Absolutely no attacking intent was displayed, with the sole aim of stopping their opponents. The term "anti-football" has been thrown at them. While I myself am reluctant to use it, one thing is true.

This is not football.

What appals this writer, though, is the reaction to this. Tomorrow's back pages (and probably a couple of front ones, too) will praise Rangers for "a superb defensive performance" and the like. The usual meaningless buzz-words forever associated with Scottish football, "commitment", "desire", "determination", will no doubt be bandied about. The brutal hacks of Lee McCulloch (the worst of which earned him a yellow card in injury-time. It could very easily have been red) will be glossed over as the "spirit" and "composure" of 874-year-old David Weir are praised to the hilt, overlooking the fact that his total lack of pace forces his teams to play incredibly deep to avoid him being exposed.

In a continuation of this theme, I think we all know that the Rangers approach will be adopted by Scotland next month against Czech Republic and Spain. Mercifully, McCulloch is suspended for the Czech Republic game. Even still, playing this way this writer finds it difficult to love the national team under prgamatic coach Craig Levein, and would be ashamed if United or County ever adopted anything like such an eye-wateringly grim approach.

You shoulf enjoy your football. When your team's playing Rangers though, it's difficult

Weekend Betting 3rd-4th September

Now, because some bright spark at UEFA thought that moving international qualifiers from Saturdays and Wednesdays to Fridays and Tuesdays (meaning that this writer msut endeavour to get away from work on time 2 nights as opposed to just 1, and can't enjoy very much pre-match bevvying at all), getting the weekend tips up on Friday simply will not do. So here are a few matches to keep an eye on this weekend (well, Friday):

• As ever, finding value among the qualifying matches is difficult, with many matches expected to be particularly one-sided- for instance, Serbia, Holland, Spain and Russia should all see off minnows Faroe Islands (for whom Ross County centre-back Atli Gregersen should feature), San Marino, Liechtenstein and Andorra respectively
• Still not great value, but Germany are available at a general 4/7 to win away in Belgium, who despite boasting a number of talented individuals, have been rather inconsistent in recent years
• Blue Square also offer 4/7 on Slovakia to beat FYR Macedonia at home- surprisingly generous considering Vladimir Weiss' men getting to the last 16 of the World Cup. 4/7 is a good price considering FYR Macedonia's lack of top-level talent to complement Inter forward Goran Pandev
• Norway impressed in a 2-1 friendly win over France last month, and are available at 10/11 with Betfred to win away to an Iceland side from whom they took 4 points during World Cup qualification. Striker Erik Huseklepp was particularly impressive against France, scoring twice, and he can be backed at a best price of 15/2 with Victor Chandler to score 1st in Reykjavik
• England should be nowhere near as short as the 3/10 general that they are currently quoted at. A much better bet is the half-time draw at 6/4

And remember: Bet safely. Bet Shifty

Manchester City v Liverpool, Monday 23rd August 2010

My Thoughts

Two teams here with ambitions of a top 4 finish, both with 1 point on the board thus far. While Liverpool were denied all 3 points on the opening weekend only by a rare late blunder by goalkeeper Pepe Reina, City never looked like getting 3 points at Spurs due to a complete lack of creativity and incision in the middle of the park. For Liverpool, Fernando Torres has been working his way back to full fitness following the World Cup, and could be ready to start with Joe Cole, who hasn't had the best of weeks, unavailable, although Woy Hodgson may well have Thursday's UEFA Cup tie away to Trabzonspor in mind when naming his team. City could hand home and full debuts respectively to Mario Balotelli and James Milner- they certainly need a more creative influence in central midfield, something the introduction of Milner could provide either as a direct replacement for perhaps Nigel de Jong or Gareth Barry, or wide left to allow David Silva to occupy a more central position

The Verdict
As aforementioned, both teams have aspirations of a top 4 finish and therefore would love all 3 points. However, a defeat for either would leave them 5 points off the top of the league, which even at this early stage of the season would leave them playing catch-up. Both managers are also likely to have one eye on UEFA Cup games on Thursday night. Draw

The Bet
The draw can be backed outright at a general 9/4. It's likely to be a cagey affair, so also consider under 2.5 goals at a best price of 4/6 with Boylesports. Also, with Fernando Torres still finding his form and fitness, Liverpool's best hope a goal with Joe Cole suspended could well be Steven Gerrard (who may or may not have obtained a superinjunction to prevent the reporting his alleged impregnation of a 15-year-old girl). He can be backed to score (as he may or may not have done in the aforementioned alleged incident) anytime at a best price of 7/2 with Paddy Power

Shifty's Season Preview Part 5

BBB

After the Wigan preview, let's stay in Lancashire and assess the chances of Blackpool, Blackburn and Bolton.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool must be one of the most favoured relegation candidates in Premier League history at a general 2/7, and it's difficult to argue against that. So I won't bother.

The squad lacks not only quality but also quantity, and the morale of those players must surely be affected by the late payment of their promotion bonuses- given that they've had to spend money to bring Bloomfield Road up to Premier League standards, Holloway is unlikely to have much leeway to do anything other than raid the reserve teams of bigger clubs for a few loan deals, a tactic they had success with last season with Everton's Seamus Coleman and Aston Villa's Barry Bannan both impressing. Even if Holloway finds another few gems (and Charlie Adam continues his Championship form), they are unlikely to be anywhere other that 20th come May.

Blackpool prediction: 20th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Absolutely fine- their squad is almost exclusively home-grown players, although it's still some way short of the permitted 25.

Blackburn Rovers ended last season very well, finishing 10th. The football under Sam Allardyce wasn't easy on the eye (and never has been under Allardyce) but Blackburn were difficult to beat, particularly at home, as their 10-6-3 record at Ewood Park shows. Allardyce must address their lack of potency in attack, though- their top scorer, David Dunn, managed just 9 league goals, and it's by no means certain that he'll be fit for all 38 games. Allardyce has brought in Manchester United youngster Mame Biram Diouf (allowing him the possibility of a Diouf and Diouf strike partnership), but one suspects they may still struggle to match last season's achievements. They have enough steel and defensive solidity, though, to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.

Prediction: 13th
How they'll cope with the homegrown rule: Just about OK. Allardyce may yet add more Premier League experience, particularly in attack
RoversBet: Their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer means Paddy Power's 25/1 on them to be the Premier League's lowest scorers is very tempting, especially when you consider the more cavalier styles of the 3 promoted sides

Bolton Wanderers under Owen Coyle were a more aesthetically pleasing side than under the deeply unpopular Gary Megson, finishing 14th. They look well placed to continue their improvement, with Coyle promising more entertaining football. Defensively, they are solid- Jussi Jaaskelainen has excelled in this league for a number of years, while Gary Cahill's England debut should come at some point this season. In midfield, Lee Chung-Yong has adapted very well to the Premier League, and was one of the few players in the league to have a good World Cup, while on the opposite flank Martin Petrov could be the free transfer of the summer. Up top, Kevin Davies provides bulk and a physical presence (if not massively prolific infront of goal), while Johan Elmander must surely start to justify his £9 million price tag. The Trotters' squad features a good mix of experienced Premier League campaigners, such as Davies and Jaaskelainen, along with promising youngsters such as Lee, Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Mark Davies (as opposed to the Allardyce regime, which almost exclusively contained 30-something journeymen booting both the ball and the opposition into the air). A top 10 finish is within their reach, provided they can maintain their upward trend under Coyle

Prediction: 10th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. No problems for Coyle in this department, with his side containing experienced Premier League home-grown players such as Davies, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson and Jlloyd Samuel alongside young talent such as Cahill, Mark Davies (a much more cultured technician than Kevin. They are, unsurprisingly, not related, which is unusual, as most people in Bolton are related to each other), Fabrice Muamba and Chris Basham
BoltonBet: Ladbrokes offer 5/1 on Bolton to finish in the top 10

Shifty's Season Preview: the SPL

My Thoughts

Both halves of the Old Firm have seen their squads change significantly- while Celtic have added quantity and quality sufficient for the SPL (how the likes of Daryl Murphy and Charlie Mulgrew will cope in the Europa League remains to be seen, however), Rangers have lost a significant number of players. While the losses of Steven Smith, DaMarcus Beasley and perhaps even Nacho Novo may not be felt, they will surely miss the goalscoring ability of Kris Boyd, and the balance in midfield offered by Kevin Thomson (the merits of having a left-footed player alongside a right-footed player in the centre of the park are much under-appreciated), and the loss of promising centre-back Danny Wilson to, in all probability, Liverpool's reserve team, will be a blow. While it's unlikely Rangers will be playing Champions League football after Christmas, their continental exploits will surely stretch their slimmed-down squad to its limits. Admittedly, Celtic are unlikely to go much further in the Europa League, but their bigger squad means they are better-equipped to compete on 2 fronts, which is why this writer is tipping Neil Lennon's side to reclaim the title. Lennon adapted well to life as an SPL manager, with Celtic winning all their league games under him last season, losing only to Ross County in the Scottish Cup Semi-Final.

Behind them, the rest of the top 6 looks fairly clear-cut. Dundee United look solid, if perhaps short of a 20-goal striker, while Motherwell look set to continue their improvement under Craig Brown, and can't be ruled out from a challenge for 3rd. Hearts could well move above Hibs if Australian comedian Jim Jefferies can keep Kevin Kyle fit- as long as referees continue not to penalise him in the SPL, he'll continue to climb all over defenders for headers, while Hibs' season imploded towards the end of last season- John Hughes' side never really recovered from their Scottish Cup exit at the hands of Ross County.

Down nearer the bottom, Aberdeen and St Johnstone have outside chances of making the top 6, with the other 4 teams (Hamilton, Inverness, Kilmarnock and St Mirren) battling (often literally- don't expect much football to be played at this end of the division) to avoid the drop. The caravan-dwellers from Inverness have SPL experience in their ranks, and look arguably the best placed of the 4 to survive. Hamilton will miss James McArthur, but have the ability to scrap their way out of trouble, and as long as they can find a reliable goalscorer, they should just be OK. Kilmarnock under new manager Mixu Paatelainen have adopted a novel transfer policy this summer of signing players who have the same name as established quality players, namely Mohammed Sissoko and David Silva. Unfortunately for them, Juventus and Manchester City are likely to notice should Paatelainen attempt to swap his players for their more famous namesakes, although this writer is considering changing his name to Bastian Schweinsteiger in an attempt to get a game at Rugby Park. The favourites for relegation, however, must be St Mirren. Gus Macpherson has left to be replaced by former Cowdenbeath boss Danny Lennon, who has taken a number of his old players with him to St Mirren. Lennon clearly trusts these players, but there's no getting away from the fact that Paul McQuade and Gareth Wardlaw were 3rd division players 12 months ago. Factor in the loss of the excellent Andy Dorman, and St Mirren look set for the drop.

Bet: St Mirren to be relegated @ 11/4 general

Shifty's Season Preview Part 4

Wigan Athletic

Wigan under Roberto Martinez last season were consistently inconsistent. Wins over Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Liverpool were followed up by a 4-0 defeat to Portsmouth, 2 5-0 defeats at the hands of Manchester United and 2 8 goal beatings in London.
Over the summer, Martinez had lost experienced campaigners Titus Bramble, Mario Melchiot and Paul Scharner (who is still a free agent. Someone's going to get themselves a real bargain if they snap him up), bringing in Paraguayan centre-back Antolin Alcaraz, Argentinian centre-forward Mauro Boselli, Bolton reserve keeper Ali Al-Habsi and Hamilton midfielder James McArthur. While all these signings have their merits (Alcaraz had a particularly impressive World Cup, Boselli has a good track record in Argentina and McArthur has excelled for Hamilton for a number of seasons despite his tender years), they have a total of 0 Premier League games under their belts. Assuming they can keep hold of Maynor Figueroa, Charles N'Zogbia and Hugo Rodallega, they do have the makings of a good footballing side, however they look more likely to be involved in a relegation scrap, which they may be unable to battle their way out of, particularly given that only Blackpool appear to be significantly worse than them.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 18th

How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Oh dear. 3 more homegrown players are needed. Wigan scout South America very impressively, less so South Lancashire

Shifty's Season Preview Part 3

Wolves

Last season, Mick McCarthy's lot battled their way to safety, although they owe their survival to the sides below them all being absolute murder. During the summer, McCarthy has been busy, raiding 2 of the sides who were below them for reinforcements- Steven Mouyokolo and Stephen Hunt signed from Hull, with Steven Fletcher arriving from Burnley. It remains to be seen how those 3, along with left-back Stephen Ward, will be able to tell when McCarthy bawls out in his Yorkshire (note Yorkshire, NOT IRISH) drawl, "Stephen! Fookin get stuck in and lump it!" who is actually required to fookin get stuck in and lump it. During the World Cup, McCarthy also demonstrated a shocking lack of basic knowledge of the game- a couple of his "highlights" including:

• "Is that the Veron?" upon seeing Juan Sebastian Veron in central midfield for Argentina. When the taxpayer is generously funding your appearance as an "expert" in South Africa, the least you can do is do a bit of research
• "Can they not have Smith marking him?" upon seeing that Greece had deployed Sokratis Papastathopoulos as a man-marker on Lionel Messi

Still, he had one advantage over Mark Lawrenson in that this writer did not feel compelled to complain to OFCOM about him.

Back to Wolves. They stayed up last season but the football wasn't exactly awe-inspiring, as they managed just 32 goals last season. McCarthy often played just Kevin Doyle on his own upfront, with 5 in midfield- it remains to be seen if the signing of Fletcher will lead to a change to 2 upfront or a place either on the bench or in a wide midfield position for one of them. Behind the front line, new man Hunt will add endeavour on the wing, while Serbian Nenad Milijas will look to establish himself as a regular, having offered creativity and the odd long-range thunderbolt sporadically last season. Other than that, the midfield is hard-working and combative, but offers little penetration, and the passing ranges of centre-backs Jody Craddock and Christophe Berra are limited, although Craddock did get his head on a number of Milijas set-pieces last season- indeed, he was their 2nd top scorer. With 5. All told, they look set for another struggle, with failure the likely end result.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 19th

How they will cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Wolves have a decent record of promoting academy graduates (Wayne Hennessey and Stephen Ward 2 of the most recent to make the 1st team) and much of their Championship-winning side who were recruited as promising youngsters from smaller clubs are still at Molineux

Shifty's Season Preview Part 2

Everton

As previously explained, the teams are being written up in a completely random order. This is to ensure each team gets a fair write-up (I'll probably be running round looking even more like a madman than normal to get them all done by next Saturday).

So to Everton. After a horrific start to last season, both in terms of results and injuries, Everton did well to recover to 8th place, just missing out on a UEFA Cup (yes, I'm still calling it that) place. On the plus side, this means that their Thursdays are free this season. However, this does mean David Moyes has had little room to manoeuvre in the transfer market, a couple of young forwards notwithstanding.

Moyes has built a strong team at Goodison Park: the spine of the team is strong, provided by the likes of Phil Neville, Tim Howard, Tony Hibbert, Johnny Heitinga (Howard Webb's first appointment at Goodison will be interesting) and the fit-again Phil Jagielka, with flair and incision coming from the impressive Steven Pienaar, Mikel Arteta and Russian Lad Dinyar Bilyaletdinov. In attack, in Louis Saha and Yakubu they have 2 players who, injury permitting, could score 20 goals a season. Their resurgence in the 2nd half of the season (in the 2010 table, they are 3rd) was built mainly on an excellent home record of 11-6-2, as well as developing a handy knack of scoring late goals- 21 of their 60 league goals were scored in the last 15 minutes of games.

What will work against them is the continuing splashing of the petrodollars by other sides, but as long as they can stay clear of injuries, then with 1 or 2 additions (more on them in a minute) they can better last season's 8th place finish

Sticking-my-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 6th

How they'll cope with the new home-grown rule: Well, seeing as you ask, they might be a bit short. Hibbert, Jagielka, Neville, Baines, Osman, Vaughan and Anichebe are their only current homegrown players (Jack Rodwell is not yet 21, and therefore does not count as 1 of the required 8). Don't be surprised to see them linked with a loan move for David Bentley

Bet: Everton to finish in the top 6 @7/4 with Stan James

Shifty's Season Preview Part 1

It's that time of year again: Season Preview time! Here's part 1 of a few, it'll probably be a mad dash to get them all on in time for next Saturday, but I'll manage it. Hopefully.

Stoke City

Right, hold on a minute here, you're thinking. Why not start with Arsenal, as per the alphabet, you ask. Well, as I hinted at earlier, this has sprung up on me quickly, and to start with Arsenal and go alphabetically would probably not give me enough time to properly write up the chances of the Ts and the Ws of the league.

So we begin with Stoke, who, after last season's 11th place finish, have established themselves in the league, and also the shinpads of many of its players (get well soon, Aaron Ramsey). Their summer transfer activity has so far been notable for its complete non-existence, although that could change if boss Tony Pulis finds a player with a throw-in akin to that of Rory Delap who can actually contribute in open play. Transfer speculation linking them with Carlton Cole is said to be wide of the mark, though.

Their playing "style" is well-documented, and despite managing an improvement from 12th place in 08/09 to 11th last season, the football didn't improve- don't count on that changing this term unless Pulis plans a late swoop for a ball-playing midfielder more comfortable in possession than the likes of Salif Diao, Delap, Amdy Faye or Glenn Whelan. One area they did improve on last season was their away form- while just 4 away wins is still nothing to shout about, it nevertheless represents progress.

While their defence is hard-as-nails, marshalled by a rejuvenated Thomas Sorensen (who developed a handy knack of saving penalties, which helped cover the backsides of a defence who gave away far too many of them), they simply must score more than last season's meagre total of 34 goals with winger Matthew Etherington top scorer with just 5. Etherington, like Sorensen, has found a new lease of life at the Britannia Stadium, and providing Pulis can find a new frontman (or get more goals out of his current motley crew of James Beattie, Dave Kitson, Mamady Sidibe and Ricardo Fuller) to get on the end of Etherington's deliveries, they should comfortably survive again without ever threatening the top 8.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 11th

How will they cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Pulis' squad largely contains British players

Bet: Worst disciplinary record @ 5/1 with Victor Chandler. They'll battle it out with Blackburn (literally on October 2) for this somewhat dubious honour

Holy jeebus, the new season has come up on me quickly

Ahoy-ahoy!

With the new season starting this/next weekend, it's time for me to get my season previews up. Rest assured, folks, these will all be on in time for the big kick-off, along with a guide to how each of the Premier League teams are looking regarding the new "home-grown" rule, and no shortage of tips.

Also, anyone else noticed the relative lack of publicity for the new Premier League season compared to previous seasons? Have Sky Sports finally accepted that it's actually not the best league around, and don't particularly want to push a league containing the players exposed so ruthlessly by Germany at the World Cup?

And another thing. Sky are unhappy about OFCOM forcing them to let other providers offer their sports channels. WE GET IT RUPERT

I love this woman