Thoughts from today's games

Something of a Super Saturday today in the Premie League (no offence, but Norwich v West Brom and Fulham v Blackburn a Super Sunday does not make), here are my thoughts for your digestion:

• The biggest surprise at the Britannia Stadium today is that people were surprised by the result. Stoke have always been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, and their deadline day additions have enhanced them even more. Liverpool's start may have looked encouraging, but if you dig a bit deeper the truth is rather different- they only gained control during their 2-0 win at Arsenal once Arsenal DM Frimpong had been dismissed and the Bolton side they dispatched have been exposed as severely wanting by both Manchester clubs. In summary, they are a long way from any sort of title challenge- fourth place is probably the extent of their realistic ambitions. Of Stoke, should they cope with this season's Europa League allied to their league campaign, then an entry to next season's competition is not beyond them


• The Myth of Bolton Under Owen Coyle: they are no more aesthetically pleasing and no less thuggish than they were under both Megson and Allardyce. The only advantages Coyle has on Megson are that his teams do at least play with 2 wingers and 2 out-and-out strikers, and that he is more media-savvy. 8 defeats in their last 9 as well- the end-of-season slump from last season has not been arrested


• FAO Kevin Davies: I hope you're proud of yourself for your assault on Tom Cleverley today. Despite the injury, Cleverley has achieved more in the last 6 weeks than you've done in your entire career. You and your mate Paul Robinson should have been off before the 20th minute today. And what happened to you roughing up De Gea?


• It would be a surprise if both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling do not make the England squad for Euro 2012. One of the 2 should make the right-back berth their own, and after another shambolic showing today, there must be question marks about Gary Cahill's ability at the highest level, as highlighted by this blog recently

Shifty's Season Preview Part 5

BBB

After the Wigan preview, let's stay in Lancashire and assess the chances of Blackpool, Blackburn and Bolton.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool must be one of the most favoured relegation candidates in Premier League history at a general 2/7, and it's difficult to argue against that. So I won't bother.

The squad lacks not only quality but also quantity, and the morale of those players must surely be affected by the late payment of their promotion bonuses- given that they've had to spend money to bring Bloomfield Road up to Premier League standards, Holloway is unlikely to have much leeway to do anything other than raid the reserve teams of bigger clubs for a few loan deals, a tactic they had success with last season with Everton's Seamus Coleman and Aston Villa's Barry Bannan both impressing. Even if Holloway finds another few gems (and Charlie Adam continues his Championship form), they are unlikely to be anywhere other that 20th come May.

Blackpool prediction: 20th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Absolutely fine- their squad is almost exclusively home-grown players, although it's still some way short of the permitted 25.

Blackburn Rovers ended last season very well, finishing 10th. The football under Sam Allardyce wasn't easy on the eye (and never has been under Allardyce) but Blackburn were difficult to beat, particularly at home, as their 10-6-3 record at Ewood Park shows. Allardyce must address their lack of potency in attack, though- their top scorer, David Dunn, managed just 9 league goals, and it's by no means certain that he'll be fit for all 38 games. Allardyce has brought in Manchester United youngster Mame Biram Diouf (allowing him the possibility of a Diouf and Diouf strike partnership), but one suspects they may still struggle to match last season's achievements. They have enough steel and defensive solidity, though, to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.

Prediction: 13th
How they'll cope with the homegrown rule: Just about OK. Allardyce may yet add more Premier League experience, particularly in attack
RoversBet: Their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer means Paddy Power's 25/1 on them to be the Premier League's lowest scorers is very tempting, especially when you consider the more cavalier styles of the 3 promoted sides

Bolton Wanderers under Owen Coyle were a more aesthetically pleasing side than under the deeply unpopular Gary Megson, finishing 14th. They look well placed to continue their improvement, with Coyle promising more entertaining football. Defensively, they are solid- Jussi Jaaskelainen has excelled in this league for a number of years, while Gary Cahill's England debut should come at some point this season. In midfield, Lee Chung-Yong has adapted very well to the Premier League, and was one of the few players in the league to have a good World Cup, while on the opposite flank Martin Petrov could be the free transfer of the summer. Up top, Kevin Davies provides bulk and a physical presence (if not massively prolific infront of goal), while Johan Elmander must surely start to justify his £9 million price tag. The Trotters' squad features a good mix of experienced Premier League campaigners, such as Davies and Jaaskelainen, along with promising youngsters such as Lee, Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Mark Davies (as opposed to the Allardyce regime, which almost exclusively contained 30-something journeymen booting both the ball and the opposition into the air). A top 10 finish is within their reach, provided they can maintain their upward trend under Coyle

Prediction: 10th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. No problems for Coyle in this department, with his side containing experienced Premier League home-grown players such as Davies, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson and Jlloyd Samuel alongside young talent such as Cahill, Mark Davies (a much more cultured technician than Kevin. They are, unsurprisingly, not related, which is unusual, as most people in Bolton are related to each other), Fabrice Muamba and Chris Basham
BoltonBet: Ladbrokes offer 5/1 on Bolton to finish in the top 10

Weekend Betting, Saturday 6th February

Plenty of interesting matches on this weekend for punters to get stuck into. Here's a few tips:

• Hull and man citeh to draw. An away banker this is not. Hull were excellent in their 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea in midweek, and have shown signs of life in recent weeks. With Amr Zaki set to become another option in attack for the Tigers, and teams above them in freefall. Phil Brown's side still have a chance of staying up. citeh are not in top form at the moment- they somewhat laboured to a 2-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend, and their away record of 3-5-3 is patchy. The draw is available at a best price of 11/4 with Ladbrokes
• Bolton to beat Fulham. Under Owen Coyle, while the results haven't yet come (and that's really more due to a tough run of fixtures), there has been a marked improvement in Bolton's recent performances. Fulham, however, had lost their last 5 leage games before their midweek 1-0 win over Portsmouth, and are still dismal away from home. With Andy Johnson out injured for the season, Clint Dempsey also injured, Diomansy Kamara away on loan to Celtic and new signing Stefano Okaka still finding his feet in English football, it's difficult to see where the support for Bobby Zamora upfront is going to come from. Bolton look good value at 6/5 with Paddy Power. As a side bet, in addition to Fulham's aforementioned striking problems, Bolton have tightened up defensively under Coyle, so under 2.5 goals is worth a punt at 8/11 with Stan James
• Let's be honest, the question today at Old Trafford will not be "Will Wayne Rooney score?". The question will be "How many will Wayne Rooney score?". Some bookies go as long as 28/1 on Portsmouth winning, and it's difficult to see even an inspired David James behind a flat back 10 keeping out the on-song Rooney, who can be backed to score 2 or more goals in the game at a ridiculously short best price of 3/1 with William Hill (folks, that really is the BEST price I could find- some firms go as short as 6/4 on this bet). Therefore, a random punt at first goalscorer could be worth a shout at Old Trafford today- Nani is finally starting to produce, and is available at a best price of 7/1 with Ladbrokes
• To the Active Nation Scottish Cup! Some interesting ties this weekend. Montrose have improved in recent weeks, but Hibs should still have far too much for them, so take Hibs on the -1 handicap at a best price of 1/3 with Coral. Elsewhere, St Johnstone and Dundee United recently served up a 3-3 ding-dong in the SPL- these two evenly matched sides could serve up another draw at McDiarmid Park today, with the draw available at a best price of 12/5 with William Hill

Weekend Betting, Saturday 23rd January

Quick look at some good bets for this weekend (this writer is going to the Man Utd v Hull City match on Saturday, so all things blogtastic will be up by Friday night)

• Bolton to beat Sheffield United is very good value at 5/6 with bet365. Despite two defeats against Arsenal this week, there have been signs of improvement under Owen Coyle, who will be looking to claim a first win as Bolton manager against a Sheffield United side who are nothing special away from home, and could be weakened further if Matthew Kilgallon completes a transfer away from the club
• Think twice before piling into Fulham at 1/2 with Skybet away at Accrington Stanley. Fulham are notoriously bad away from home, and are weakened further by the absence of Clint Dempsey, Bobby Zamora and anyone Woy Hodgson decides to rest for the trip to the Crown Ground. It may even be worth having a small bet on Accrington 1X (aka Double Chance Home/Draw) at a best price of 13/8 with Boylesports- Accrington have lost only 1 of their last 7 games
• Cowdenbeath are excellent value at 11/8 with Blue Square to win away at Dumbarton on Saturday. Dumbarton have been shaky at home all season (2-3-4), while Cowdenbeath have been impressive home and away, and sit top of the Second Division, a league that they were actually relegated from last season. My advice to those of you with accounts with Blue Square is to get on this. My advice to those of you without Blue Square accounts is to open a Blue Square account and get on this
• Arsenal at 7/2 to win the league with Betfred is big. They play Aston Villa, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool within the next 3 weeks. One way or the other, they're likely to have moved from 7/2 by then
• If you're seriously considering taking the general 4/5 available on Chelsea to win the league, then you were born yesterday. With Essien likely to be ruled out for up to a month, and the fixtures above still to be played (as well as trips to Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and anfailed still to be played), they are a long way from being in the clear. For the big man's sake, they're not even top
• To return to Bolton, despite showing signs of improvement, they still took zero points from their 2 games against Arsenal. While this wasn't exactly unexpected, it does mean that they still find themselves in 19th place. Owen Coyle's desire to get Bolton playing football again would no doubt have been centred on the technical ability of midfielder Mark Davies, who could be set for a while out injured after Wednesday's loss at Arsenal- they also have the highest goals conceded per game stat, a figure that's not likely to improve if Bolton continue to defend they way Coyle's Burnley team did away from home. To that end, it's amazing to see that they can still be backed at a general 11/4 to go down

Shifty's Season Preview Part 3

Bolton Wanderers

Not entirely different from their Lancashire rivals, last season Bolton were solid, pragmatic, not the prettiest but effective to an extent. It would be wrong to say that Gary Megson divides opinion among Bolton fans: they all hate him. Their style has not evolved from the Sam Allardyce era, yet they have slid down the table. While they should be safe from relegation this season, it's hard to see them making any serious challenge for a top 10 place. However, they have made a couple of decent acquisitions: Sean Davies and Zat Knight are both established Premier League performers, while Paul Robinson and Sam Ricketts both gained praise for their performances as full-backs in what were otherwise hopeless defences last season at West Brom and Hull respectively.

Verdict: The Trotters look set to continue trotting along somewhere between mid-table and 17th. Their only hope of success would appear to be a decent cup run, but given Megson's disdain for the cup competitions last season, this seems unlikely. Ho hum

Burnley are a Premier League team. No, really

Unlike Alan Shearer, one can proclaim Owen Coyle as the messiah without some halfwit immediately correcting you and instead declaring him a very naughty boy. His work on a limited budget and small squad (2 of whom being Steve Caldwell and Graham Alexander, and Brian Jensen is anything but small) could be compared to making however many loaves of bread and fresh haddock being distributed among 5,000. This summer Burnley have adopted a transfer policy seemingly based around recriuting young, talented players with the energy to compliment the guile of the likes of Robbie Blake and industry of Wade Elliott. Last season's cup runs show that Burnley will have nothing to fear against many of the Premier League, and any side who go to Turf Moor not fully on their game can expect to be turned over by a side that will no doubt be backed by a fervent home support, who may well have taken a layer of skin off their hands by now, through constantly rubbing them with glee at the fixture list, which gives them a first home game against Manchester United.

Verdict: On paper, they could really struggle. But then again, we all said that this time last year about Hull and Stoke. A lot will depend not on how their younger players, such as Steven Fletcher, Chris Eagles, Martin Paterson and Brian Easton, adapt, but whether or not the veterans of last season's epic campaign can withstand the rigours of the Premier League. In terms of betting, their games could well be among the most open, high-scoring, in the league. Keep an eye on that over 2.5 goals figure for their games.

CSKA London
Another new season, another new era at Chelsea. This time, Carlo Ancelotti is the man in charge, and while the playing squad has not undergone much revision, expect to see a different style from Ancelotti's side. Gone is the 4-5-1/4-3-3 of Scolari and Hiddink, set to be replaced by a 4-4-2 diamond. How they adapt this style for the Premier League and the Chelsea players will be intriguing to watch, especially considering that, under Ancelotti, AC Milan played this system at about 3mph. Of the 3 new signings, Yuri Zhirkov and Daniel Sturridge look well-equipped to shine when called upon, while this writer wants to find out who Ross Turnbull's agent is. Defensively, any more mistakes and questions will have to be asked about Petr Cech's condition, while Ricardo Carvalho's likely retention is key to their chances. Right-back could be a concern, though: Ancelotti appears not to be totally convinced by the defensive qualities of Jose Bosingwa, while Branislav Ivanovic was completely done by Nani in last weekend's Community Shield.

Verdict: The fixture list is reasonbly kind to Chelsea at the start of the season, and so they can be expected to be near the top early on. It remains to be seen, though, how they will cope without their African contingent when January comes. Expect either the Premier League title, the Champions League title, or Ancelotti to be sacked

Bolton Wanderers v Sunderland, Saturday 9th May

My Thoughts

Bolton are, to all intents and purposes, safe. 39 points on the board with 3 games to go, Gary Megson's side can probably start planning their summer holidays safe in the knowledge that another season in the top flight is forthcoming. The same cannot be said for Sunderland, who, despite a recent 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Hull City, are still in big trouble, and probably deserve to be, given their recent form. The Black Cats have managed just 3 wins away from the Stadium of Light this season, and go to the Reebok Stadium on Saturday knowing that only Manchester United and Fulham have won there since January. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw a 4-1 victory for Bolton which was also Roy Keane's last game in charge. Ricky Sbragia takes Sunderland to the Reebok Stadium knowing that his job as well is not 100% secure. With the exception of the reverse fixture, meetings between these 2 sides have tended to be low-scoring affairs. With Bolton needing just 1 point to mathematically secure top-flight football next season, and a poor Sunderland side desperate for any kind of result, this writer won't be expecting a free-flowing goalfest.

The Verdict
It's difficult to see this being a high-scoring game. In 17 home games this season, Bolton have scored 20 goals (averaging 1.17 per game) and condeded 20. Sunderland have managed to score just 12 goals in 17 away games (averaging 0.70 per game), and have conceded 26 (averaging 1.52 per game). With neither side in particularly great form, I'd be thinking a draw here.

The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 12/5 with Boylesports (who also happen to be Sunderland's shirt sponsors). Alternatively, have a look at under 2.5 goals available at a general 4/6