Weekend Betting, Saturday 13th February

Here's some tips for the weekend's football fixtures, liiiike:

• No Premier League games this weekend, and there's not a huge amount tempting me in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron, so off to the Championship we go. Leicester are going well at the moment- they look like a decent side, and on current form should be among the play-off contenders at the end of the season- and should see off Scunthorpe, who are pretty abysmal away from home. 3/4 with Blue Square looks like a very good price, especially considering this pundit had them at 2/5 (more about that later)
• Staying in the Championship, and remaining on the subject of teams who are abysmal away from home, Peterborough have the worst away record in the division, and travel to Gordon Strachan's improving Middlesbrough/Celtic collaboration. The Boro/Hoops are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred to see off Jim Gannon's men
• Speaking of Peterborough, they will be hoping to avoid jumping down to League One, something this blog is going to do now. Stockport's form has been dreadful, although they have improved in recent weeks, and will surely trip someone up sooner rather than later. However, don't expect it to be Aidy Boothroyd's Colchester side, who are available at a best price of 4/5 with Coral
• Into the SPL, one could make a case for all 5 away teams winning. Of the 5, the best value bet looks like Motherwell to win away at Hamilton. These two met just last week, with Motherwell emerging as 1-0 winners, and following their excellent performance in their midweek 1-1 draw with Rangers, they will be confident of inflicting further damage on a Hamilton side beginning to really suffer from that old cliche, Second Season Syndrome. Motherwell can be backed at a best price of 6/4 with Skybet

And now for me to tell y'all what I was on about earlier on. Basically, I've started pricing matches myself. On the Tuesday before the weekend, I'll nab me a fixtures list (usually from the BBC website) and before the bookies have their prices on, I'll go through and estimate what the prices should be, while also noting down the teams I fancy betting on. Then, when I make my weekly trip to the bookies (actually scratch that. One of my trips to the bookies) I'll compare their prices with my own, and if their price on a game I fancy is better than mine, then I'll take that bet.

The system isn't perfect yet, I'll no doubt have to refine it for such aspects as building a small profit margin, but I'd recommend trying it, and keep y'all posted on how my system works

Shifty

Middlesbrough v Manchester United, Saturday 2nd May

My Thoughts

Much of this game may well depend on how strong a team Sir Alex Ferguson picks for this game. With Tuesday's game at Arsenal in mind, United are likely to make wholesale changes for the trip to the Riverside, with the United boss hinting at roles for the likes of Park Ji-Sung, Nani, Paul Scholes, Darron Gibson and Federico Macheda. Jonny Evans is also likely to come in for Rio Ferdinand, who sustained a rib injury against Arsenal on Wednesday, and Wesley Brown may well be on the bench, having completed 90 minutes for the Reserves on Thursday. Expect United's line-up to look something like this:

Foster

O'Shea Evans Vidic Evra

Nani Scholes Gibson Park

Berbatov Macheda

Middlesbrough, while still very much in a relegation scrap, have at least shown signs of life in recent home games, managing a 3-1 victory over fellow strugglers Hull, and were unfortunate to claim only 1 point against Fulham, having created numerous chances. Middlesbrough's record against United is actually quite respectable, with United only winning on 3 of their last 6 trips to the Riverside. With Middlesbrough fighting for their lives, and the possibility of a much-changed (I avoid using the word "weakened" because, even if there are wholesale changes, the players United bring in will all still be accomplished performers at Premier League level) away team, surely Boro will have a chance to get something here.

The Verdict
If Middlesbrough can maintain their decent home form (which has seen them beat fellow title challengers Liverpool at the Riverside) then, against a United side with one eye on Tuesday, they could get something here. Draw

The Bet
The draw can be backed at 16/5 with William Hill. Avoid backing any potential United scorers until the teams are published, but Paul Scholes would appear to have a strong chance of playing. He can be backed at 11/2 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Also, for a bit of fun, a red card can be backed at 13/2 with Paddy Power