An Alternative Cabinet Reshuffle

So, David Cameron is set to announce a reshuffling of the ministers in his cabinet. Although, let's face it, now much is going to change, is it? A number of right-wing, Oxbridge-educated, middle-to-upper class, out-of-touch, neo-conservative little Englanders are going to be replaced with a different bunch of right-wing, Oxbridge-educated, middle-to-upper class, out-of-touch, neo-conservative little Englanders. So I propose to you, Dave, that you go with the following, to really rejig your government:

Chancellor of the Exchequer: Count von Count (replacing Gideon Osborne)

His well-documented love of counting things makes him the perfect man to replace Osborne- he's unlikely to be faze by such daunting tasks as tallying up the number of government functions that have erroneously outsourced to the private sector and how many school playing fields have been built over. He can surely also be trusted far more than Gideon to count (geddit?) how much tax he has to pay himself (for this reason, the currently unemployed Harry Redknapp must be ruled out of contention), and should also avoid the ignominy of being booed when presenting medals at the Paralympic games to the very people suffering the most under his cuts

 

Defence Secretary: Frankie Boyle (replacing Philip Hammond)

Two key facts here:

1. Britain has loads of cool shit for blowing people up currently going to waste in Iraq, Afghanistan & in numerous secrets bunkers, a few miles off the M27 near Southampton

2. None of you have ever heard of Philip Hammond

The appointment of Boyle as the man in charge of our weapons would eradicate both these problems (along with most of our enemies, whoever they are)

 

Culture Secretary: Mario Balotelli (replacing Jeremy Cun..er, Hunt)

The touting of this appointment does feel a bit awkward for this writer (regular readers will know that my affiliations lie with the other 3/4s of Manchester), but an "eccentric" individual such as Balotelli makes perfect sense as Culture Secretary. Just imagine the photo opportunities! Feeding the animals at Chester Zoo, parading a bizarre dress sense, promoting womens' prisons & helping boost fireworks sales that will get the economy going, both through the sales themselves & the resultant extra work for the emergency services

Weekend Betting is back. Yay!

So, we've got the SPL starting this weekend, along with the League Cup 1st Round. Let's get tipping:

• Arbroath to beat Stirling Albion at a best price of 8/15 with Paddy Power. Even at such a short price, this represents great value- Arbroath spanked 7 goals past Elgin (a comparable-strength team to Stirling) last Saturday, and Stirling are without a senior goalkeeper- Sam Filler is suspended & Mark Peat unavailable due to work commitments. Astute punters will pile in at that price, so get on it quick
• Skipping ahead to Sunday, Dundee United look best-placed to challenge for 2nd place in the SPL- they have made some smart acquisitions (among them Michael Gardyne & Mark Millar, arguably the 2 best players in the 1st Division last season) and gave a very good account of themselves against Dinamo Moscow on Thursday night, drawing 2-2. The 8/11 offered by Coral on them beating Hibs should be taken
• Elsewhere, it's possible to put together what should be a fairly safe accumulator in the League Cup- expect Falkirk, Partick Thistle, Hamilton & Raith Rovers to all get the job done in their games

Enjoy, and 'Mon the Staggies

When Your Car Needs a New Engine, Don't Buy Alloy Wheels Instead

This morning's paper talk of Manchester United being interested in signing Robin van Persie was rather surprising to this writer for a number of reasons. An even bigger surprise came this evening when Sir Alex Ferguson confirmed on MUTV that a bid had indeed been made. Here's a few reasons why, to me, this potential deal makes no sense and will not happen:

• Rooney, Welbeck, Hernandez, Berbatov, Macheda. Even assuming the likely departure of 1 of the last 2 of those names, United have a strikeforce as strong as any in Europe. Also factor in the likes of Kagawa, Young, Powell and Giggs who could all operate in the 10 position (plus talented youngsters like Will Keane & Josh King), and you have to come to the conclusion that United simply don't need another centre-forward. If van Persie is to be believed when he says his main motivation is to win trophies, then one could argue that Juventus, another of the teams in the running for his signature, give him at least as good, if not better, a chance of winning the Champions League in the near future
• There are, however, other areas of United's squad that need reinforcing. The central midfield issue needs no explaining (as earlier mentioned, Kagawa is more likely to be used as a 10, rather than as part of a Doppelsechs setup), while there is no senior cover for Patrice Evra at left-back- rookies Robbie Brady (a jinking left-winger by trade) and Tyler Blackett will be deployed there during pre-season, and possibly during the season should Evra be unavailable. A move for Everton's Leighton Baines seems to be on the back-burner for now- it's likely to stay there, and definitely will if the van Persie deal goes through
• As alluded to at the end of the last point, there is the issue of finances. The bid lodged by United announced today was rumoured to be in the region of £15 million, which Arsenal rejected, holding out as they are for £25million-£30 million. The signing of van Persie would also go against United's stringent transfer policy of signing young players with high sell-on value at relatively low wages. At 28 and injury prone, van Persie is the very antithesis of this policy
• More on the financial side now. United recently launched an IPO on the New Your Stock Exchange in an attempt to raise capital and also to relieve the club of some of the indebtedness it has taken on with the ownership of the Glazers, a tacit admission that the sheer size of the debt (well into the hundreds of millions) is now holding the club back. To put it simply, if United could meet Arsenal's asking price at the drop of a hat (the way, say, citeh, Paris Saint-Germain or Chelsea could), then they surely would. In the context of this IPO, we also have to consider a financial industry concept known as "signalling". This is where an institution, wishing to drum up positive investor interest (or downplay negative stories) in itself publicly releases positive information about itself that it would normally have kept confidential that may be exaggerated or not entirely truthful. To sum that point up, FERGIE'S LYING!!!

RVP to MUFC ain't going to happen, people

Ideological Blowback

So we now, at last, have confirmation of what most of us have known for a number of weeks now, after 7 SPL clubs declared their voting intentions: Newco Rangers will not play in the SPL in 2012/13.

But what is emerging this summer in Scottish football is something bigger, something far, far more powerful than the mere deciding of the fate of 1 tax-avoiding, soon-to-be-liquidated "establishment" club. The SPL clubs' No votes were, as has been admitted by the clubs and SPL Chief Executive (whose position is surely now close to untenable) Neil Doncaster, driven by the wishes and demands of supporters, who not only voiced their discontent, but also backed them up through refusing to purchase season tickets. It should also be noted that Scotland national team supporters' club memberships are selling much more slowly than normal this summer.

Classic consumer activism, or fan power if you like. But now we're at the stage where it's up to the SFL (Scottish Football League) member clubs to decide if Newco start 2012/13 in the SFL Division 1, Division 3 or if they are to be denied entry altogether, and it goes further than simple fan power. The vast majority (and we are talking vast- opinion polls have Division 3 as the favoured option of 95-98% of voters, including Rangers fans) of fans want Newco to be treated like any other new applicant to the SFL, and made to start from the bottom. However, Doncaster and his partner-in-crime Stewart Regan of the SFA (Scottish Football Association. Don't worry if you're new to the blog- even the most seasoned Scottish football fans get confused by the different governing bodies) are intent on forcing the will of the SFL member clubs into accepting Newco into Division 1. Unfortunately, their scare tactics look set to work on a few clubs, namely Stenhousemuir, but many clubs (and supporters of all clubs, SPL, SFL and Rangers) are standing firm, despite the bullying tactics (which represent at best a dereliction of duty, at worst borderline criminality) of the SPL and SFA.

This will take a bit of explaining, but there is a fascinating parallel between this current state of affairs in Scottish football and post-invasion Iraq.

Some people may look at that statement and think along the lines of: "Evil tyrant knocked off their perch and destroyed, the previously suppressed commoners rejoice!". However, to go with this viewpoint is to misread the current state of Scottish football and to misunderstand post-invasion Iraq.

The common timeline actually goes more like this: "Power vacuum created by the termination of a controlling influence leads to outside authority figures attempting to impose their preferred ideology, only to meet strong resistance from the masses". In post-invasion Iraq, the outside authority figures are represented by the USA, with their free-market ideology which they tried to impose on the Iraqi people, only for the Iraqi citizens to revolt against it, leaving the US government to gradually withdraw, the private contractors it had brought to Iraq having long since departed with billions of dollars of US taxpayer dollars in subsidies, their free-market experiment having crashed and burned.

The authority figures in Scotland (namely, exclusively even, Regan & Doncaster) in the absence of Rangers wish to force upon the rest of Scottish football a model which, ultimately, aims to have Newco Rangers parachuted back into the previously dominant position of the now-defunct Rangers.  However, Regan & Doncaster's sole motivation for this seems to be maintenance of the status quo and the perceived level of income, which the footballing masses can see straight through. The rules & regulations governing the game make it quite clear that the procedure in an insolvency event such as the impending liquidation of Rangers that any new entry must apply to the SFL for admittance to Division 3- the masses simply want to see standard procedure followed. (Although, in a rather embarassing revelation for the SFL, it does not specify in their regulations that a new applicant MUST start in Division 3- the best explanation I can offer for this is that the SFL assumed no-one would have the bare-faced cheek to ask to start in a position more privileged than anyone else)

And hence we have ideological blowback, where the ideas preached by the authorities are thrown back at them with a vengeance. The sweetener that Doncaster threw into all his commercial deals of guaranteeing 4 Rangers v Celtic games per season has come back to haunt him, and haunt him loud, while Regan's frankly bizarre comments about potential "social unrest" should Newco be playing at a level below Division 1 surely now leave his position at least as untenable as Doncaster's, and also do a disservice to the significant proportion of Rangers fans who have conducted themselves with dignity and contrition during this sorry saga.

If we do not learn the lessons of history then we will end up repeating the same mistakes. Regan & Doncaster would do well to have Paul Bremer on speed-dial over the coming weeks

So This Whole Newco Nonsense....

With a vote on July 4th to decide the identity of the SPL's "Club 12", let's have a look at the season-ticket situation. Many clubs are reporting (well, not reporting, but information is being leaked/extracted) that their season ticket sales are not merely falling but completely collapsing, due to the uncertainty regarding Club 12- some clubs are believed to have not yet shifted 200 season tickets when they would have expected to sell 10 times that number by this point in the summer. It's been well-documented why this is- supporters of all other SPL teams (and even a number of Rangers fans) do not want to see Newco Rangers allowed straight back in to the SPL, and many fans do not want to spend time and money backing a club that is complicit in their readmission to the league.

This got me thinking- how many season-ticket holders would a club need to lose to offset the additional ticket revenue brought in by the Rangers travelling support?

The answer is not many. I've collated the following pieces for each of the 10 SPL clubs who were there last season and will be there this season (newly-promoted Ross County didn't play Rangers last season and relegated Dunfermline won't play them this season. Their season ticket figures of approx 1250 so far are actually more positive than much of the SPL, helped by their clear No to Newco stance):

• The cost of a 2012/13 Adult season ticket (where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
• The cost of a 2011/12 Adult ticket for a match v Rangers (2012/13 individual match ticket prices are not available for most clubs at this time, and they're unlikely to fluctuate much anyway. Again, where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
• The approximate number of tickets allocated to Rangers for these games in 2011/12

From these figures, by multiplying the number of tickets allocated to Rangers by the ticket price for these games, we can derive the total ticket revenue to the host club from the game. By then dividing this figure by the cost of a season ticket, we can establish an approximate figure of how many season ticket holders a club would need to lose to offset the additional revenue of the visit of Rangers. The full results are as follows:

Aberdeen- 430 season ticket holders
Celtic- 541
Dundee United- 384
Hearts- 296
Hibs- 294
Inverness CT- 149
Kilmarnock- 606
Motherwell- 417
St Johnstone- 366
St Mirren- 242

From these figures, the stance of many clubs suddenly becomes clear. It's now far easier to see why Kilmarnock chairman Michael Johnston is vocal in his support for allowing Newco Rangers back into the SPL-with their diminishing crowds and comparatively large stadium capacity, Johnston feels Kilmarnock need to sell 2 full stands to Rangers fans twice a season in order to survive, and that he'd struggle to sell over 600 additional season-tickets to compensate for their departure. For the remainder of clubs, though, it's clear that only a small number of their season-ticket holders need not renew for them to lose out. It should also be factored in that for 2012/13, if Club 12 are not Newco Rangers, then they will almost certainly be Dundee, who would take a comparable travelling support to Dundee United, St Johnstone and perhaps Aberdeen to that of Rangers. For those reasons alone, that should be 3 No to Newco votes wrapped up- with Hibs chairman Rod Petrie previously vocal about sporting integrity being the priority, we can assume that Hibs will also vote No- they also need to retain all the season ticket holders they can (especially after a poor season on the pitch), as they need only lose fewer than 300 to offset the Newco travelling fans. Even allowing for the likely Yes vote from Kilmarnock for the reasons already mentioned, that's already 4 likely No votes, and would Celtic really turn down an opportunity to relegate their oldest rivals from the top flight?

Another factor to be considered is that, with each passing day, it becomes more and more difficult for Newco Rangers to put together everything they'll need to be competitive next season should they be in the SPL- no players have signed as of yet (Newco Rangers are obliged to OFFER Oldco Rangers' players and staff a new contract, but they players and staff are not obliged to accept) and season-ticket holders must be wondering whether they should commit to paying SPL prices for their tickets which could yet be for 3rd Division football, or even for no football at all. And one can only wonder at how Ally McCoist (if he is to continue as manager) has been preparing- does he devise a pre-season programme based on the technique required for the SPL (not much admittedly) or for the more physical, bruising nature of the 3rd division? Can he build a strong squad of quality players for an assault on the SPL, or does he have to try and find 18-20 part-time players for the bottom tier? The longer he has to wait, the more likely someone else is going to come in for all those players. Do the other SPL clubs really want a team who may not be able to compete with them whilst in financial turmoil, a la Gretna?

Lastly, I'd recommend that, if you're a fan of an SPL team, you let them know your feelings. Teams need to listen to their fans more than ever in these challenging times for Scottish football

Edited on 19.6.2012 for updated figures, thanks @MitchellenMan

And Yet More Words On Euro 2012

One day in, let's now have a look at Group C of Euro 2012. After the barnstorming start I made (had Russia to win 4-1 at 50/1 and Dzagoev to score 2 or more goals at 35/1), I'll also furnish y'all with some tips for the next few games:

Group C: (Campeones, Corrupt Calcio, Cafe Table Cloths, Caffreys)

Reigning European and World champions Spain, despite being without the injured Puyol and Villa, are among the favourites. There's been much talk of fatigue amongst their players, particularly the Barcelona contingent, but this shouldn't be as much of a problem for them as it would be for other sides. Their possession-based game will see them typically with about 70% of possession each game, so opportunities will be there for the likes of Xavi, Alonso and Iniesta to take a "breather" during the games by simply retaining the ball amongst themselves, knowing that many opponents, Ireland in particular, will likely afford them much time and space in the middle of the park and play with 9 or 10 players within 30 metres of their own goal. By the time they reach the latter stages, though, fatigue may catch up with them, especially if confronted by a rapid-pressing, energetic, powerful Germany side. Behind them, Italy look rather shambolic. Another match-fixing scandal is rife in their domestic game, costing them the services of left-back Domenico Criscito, and their main attacking options are Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano- can either of them really be relied upon at this level? Croatia, still playing in those red and white cafe table cloths, must fancy their chances of finishing ahead of Italy- they are tactically versatile, with coach Slaven Bilic having an impressive array of attacking options available, even without the inured workhorse Ivica Olic- Luka Modric will pull the strings in the centre of midfield, with Darijo Srna motoring up and down the right flank. The left-midfield and central-attacking midfield positions will be filled by 2 from Niko Kranjcar, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, with the impressive Nikica Jelavic either on his own upfront, or possibly partnered by Mario Mandzukic or Eduardo should Bilic opt for a front 2 ahead of a flatter midfield. Don't expect much from Ireland either aesthetically or in terms of results- the current squad is very much Caffreys (poor imitation) compared to the Guinness (real deal) of their 1994 and 2002 vintages. Giovanni Trappatoni's side have an extremely basic tactical framework- 4-4-2 with centre-backs at full-back, 2 holders in the centre of midfield, 2 wingers and a target man-little man strike partnership. While they could frustrate all 3 group opponents, they are unlikely to be able to create enough to threaten qualification

Now for some tips. Some good, some more adventurous:
Holland to beat Denmark at 8/11 general
Holland v Denmark under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Betfred

Germany and Portugal to draw at 23/10 general
Half time/ full time Portugal/Draw at 16/1 with Skybet
Cristiano Ronaldo 1st scorer at 11/2 general
Germany and Portugal to draw 3-3 at 80/1 with Bodog

Spain v Italy under 2.5 goals at 8/13 with Skybet
Ireland v Croatia under 2.5 goals at 1/2 general

Some More Words on Euro 2012

2 days to go until the start of Euro 2012. Office sweepstake done? Check. Polish colleagues getting hyper-excited? Check. Smart gamblers with outright bets placed months ago? Check (for the record, yours truly has the following: Germany outright winners @ 10/3, Klose top scorer @ 14/1, Russia each/way @18/1, Lewandowski top scorer @ 50/1. Some of those prices, Lewy for the Golden Boot in particular, are long gone). Less organised punters still floundering around for semi-decent prices? Check. Fantasy football leagues setup? Check

Instead of doing a straight rundown of Groups C and D, I thought I'd offer some more general musings on what to expect at Euro 2012, as well as a few tips for the floundering punters.

In the last few days, many people have been getting excited about France- they're now as short as 9/1 to win the tournament with many bookmakers, while centre-forward Karim Benzema is now as short as 12/1 for top scorer- both outcomes were available at much longer prices only a few weeks ago. Most of this interest has come about due to their impressive warm-up results, however one must note that the quality of opponents they have faced recently has been lacking- Iceland took a 2 goal lead against them before going down 3-2, Serbia are in transition under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic and Estonia offered very little against Les Bleus after the first 10 minutes. They should comfortably qualify from Group D, and should come through a likely quarter-final against Croatia or an utter shambles of an Italy side, but their central defensive frailties, where 1st choice pairing Philippe Mexes and Adil Rami have both endured difficult seasons at club level, are likely to be exposed by the time they reach the semi-finals. There are also question marks over who will be protecting the back 4, with injury concerns over DMs Yann M'Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Alou Diarra. World Cup 2014 could be their time, though.

As for Benzema, he's a more realistic shout of claiming outright glory. Again, it's his form in the aforementioned warm-up games that has got everyone interested, as well as the defensive travails of all of their Group D opponents- he's also got plenty of creativity behind him, as well as a potential target man to play off if Laurent Blanc decides to throw Olivier Giroud on alongside him. That 12/1 is just about worth a few quid- kudos to you if you got him when he was still in the 20s

I'll do the other 2 groups within the next few days, i.e. before any actual matches are played

Some Words About Euro 2012

Euro 2012 begins on Friday (Poland v Greece, kick off 5pm, so you shouldn't have to sneak away from work too early), so I suppose I'd better share some musings about the upcoming soccerfest

Group A (Arshavin, Austerity, Ambition, Ach Who Cares?)
Arguably the weakest of the groups contains 4 fairly evenly-matched teams, all of whom will harbour realistic expectations of progression to the knockout stages. Russia are the strongest of the 4, and should top the group. They have a genuinely top class keeper in the fit-again Igor Akinfeev to compensate for a less-than world class defence, while a tough, workmanlike midfield will provide an attacking platform for 1 exciting young playmaker (Alan Dzagoev) and 1 older, less exciting playmaker (Andrei Arshavin) to create openings for the lone frontman, who will be 1 from Alexandr Kerzhakov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. Co-hosts Poland should join them in the knockout stages- centre-forward Robert Lewandowski has established himself as one of Europe's best srikers and is well-fancied by many to be the tournament's top scorer, his price having moved from 40/1 to 20/1 in the last few weeks. Lewandowski's Borussia Dortmund club mates, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Lukasz Piczczek will line up down the right flank of a fairly standard 4-2-3-1 formation in which the 2 DMs, likely to be Dariusz Dudka and Rafal Murawski, will hold and do little else. Arsenal's Wojciech Szczesny will be in goals. Regarding the other 2 teams in the group, the Czech Republic's golden generation have now moved on, while their impressive Under 21 crop from last summer are not yet ready to step up, while Greece offer very little aside from dogged tenacity in defence and the hope of a set-piece at the other end- it's unlikely to be enough to see them past a slick, determined Russia and a decent Polish side on home soil

Group B (Bundesliga, Bacon, Bento, Boiler Suits)
Ah, the old "group of death". Germany go into the tournament as 2nd favourites behind Spain, with all the old Teutonic efficiency of old, but these days with a sparkling, powerful attacking game with young uberstars like Mario Gotze, Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and the World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller. 2 of these 4 will likely make up the 3 man attacking midfield (Lukas Podolski, a Nationalmannschaft veteran at the age of 27, should take the left-sided forward role) support to the lone frontman, the ageless Miroslav Klose. Concerns remain about the defence (not only is the awful Benedikt Howedes in the squad, he may actually play) but they were imperious in qualifying (10 wins from 10) and are capable of making it through this group with relative ease. Very strong chance of going all the way. Behind them, all 3 teams could conceivably go through. The bacon-munching Danes go into the tournament in good form- the loss of goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen was a blow but not an insurmountable one- Man Utd's Anders Lindegaard is an able deputy, while their key attacking threats are all fit and raring to go. Coach Morten Olsen is a wily old fox who will know how to extract the maximum from his side. Holland's fans will flock to the tournament to a man dressed in bright orange boiler suits with a potent attack but question marks over the playing style and the defence- Arjen Robben's propensity to screw up in crucial games is also not to be discounted. Portugal, under Paulo Bento, are basically Cristiano Ronaldo + a useless rabble of 10 others, which admittedly means they've still got a chance

Groups C and D will follow soooooon

Houston, we have a problem

So, Dundee United manager Peter Houston has come out this week and said that, without Rangers in the SPL, his club stand to lose in the region of £600,000. Let's rip that statement to shreds

Firstly, an SPL next season without Rangers would see United's city rivals, Dundee, admitted to the SPL in their place as 1st Division runners-up (although their final points tally was closer to bottom-placed Queen of the South than winners Ross County. Sorry folks, I couldn't resist). Games against Dundee at Tannadice would be guaranteed sell-outs (notably, neither of Rangers' 2 trips to Tannadice this season sold out) and would most likely be deemed "premium" fixtures, i.e. highest bracket of ticket and hospitality prices (another bugbear of this writer, but we'll leave that for another day). So loss of ticket revenue isn't going to be an issue. The issue of a loss of TV revenue is probably weighing on Houston's mind, given that 3 of Dundee United's 4 league games v Rangers were televised by Sky or ESPN, however it's a reasonable assumption to make that a Dundee derby will be an attractive proposition for live TV, and much as there has been some hand-wringing over Sky's future coverage of the SPL, ESPN, who show just as many matches, have a deal until 2017. And, let's face it, if Rangers start next season in Division 3, then by the time that deal is up for renewal, there's a good chance the Govan side will be back in the SPL.

Clubs like Dundee United would also benefit on the park. Houston would probably admit that, in ordinary circumstances, Rangers would almost certainly be plotting moves this summer for the likes of Johnny Russell and Gary Mackay Steven, and would be able to blow his side out of the water in financial terms, plus European football. This will now no longer be the case, thereby giving Houston more opportunity to build a stronger team around these talented players. This should, in theory, mean that by the time Rangers rise through the SFL and are back in the SPL (as will most likely happen), the rest of the league should be much stronger, which will benefit the whole of Scottish football.

So the short-term and long-term cases are there to see. What also has to be taken into account is the view of the supporters. The results of the recent SPL fan survey show that supporters are by and large unsympathetic to the idea of a Newco Rangers playing in the SPL, and rightly so. The results also indicate that there would be a significant drop in the already-diminishing crowds at SPL games. The chairmen, who will ultimately make the final decision, cannot ignore this. They may, and usually do, point at the TV deals as being a source of finance, but it's worth remembering exactly who Sky, ESPN and the BBC (who, should Sky pull out, would surely fancy boosting their diminishing live sports rights portfolio) televise football for: the supporters.

We can but hope for some sense and sensibility from the SPL chairmen when they (eventually) make their decision. We can but hope

Some General Musings

Been a while since I posted own on here, so time to address that with some general musings. Some of the usual betting tips will appear again soon enough

Manchester United and referees
Now, regular (and irregular) readers will know of my leanings, but bear with me. Fulham should have had a penalty at Old Trafford last night, no-one's going to argue that one. But likewise, think back to the penalty Newcastle got at Old Trafford earlier this season. It sounds cliched, but these things generally do even themselves out over a season
Some stats have also emerged regarding the number of penalties (most in the league) and yellow cards (fewest in the league) awarded to Man Utd in recent weeks. There is a perfectly logical explanation for both of these, and it's nothing to do with referees favouring Man Utd (indeed, if you want to talk about a Premier League referee favouring a particular team, look at Chelsea's results in games refereed by Martin Atkinson). Quite simply, United typically spend more of the game in possession and attacking their opponents. In order to be awarded a penalty, you obviously need to be in possession of the ball in your opponents' penalty area- the more often you're in the opposition box, the more opportunities you're likely to get for them to foul you.

Similarly, in order for you to pick up a yellow card, generally you need for your opponent to be in possession of the ball. The less time your opponent has the ball, the fewer chances you're likely to have to foul them

Andre Villas-Boas to Inter? Really?
I must admit that, after his totally undeserved and unjustified sacking from Chelsea, I was baffled to hear media reports linking Andre Villas-Boas with perennial basket case Internazionale. Some forensic analysis reveals that the two sides have remarkably similar problems, so much so it's actually hilarious (well, to me anyway) to go through both sides:
Goalkeeper who was outstanding but now a complete liability: Check (Julio Cesar and Cech)
Brazilian centre-back prone to wandering: Check (Lucio and David Luiz)
Veteran warhorse of a cantankerous old bastard alongside: Check (Samuel and Terry)
Young, highly replacements for them who are actually useless: Check (Ranocchia and Cahill)
Portuguese-speaking adventurous full-back affected by loss of form and injury: Check (Maicon and Bosingwa/Ferreira)
Uber-talented but misfiring, ill-fitting, blond, Spanish-speaking centre-forward: Check (Forlan and Torres)
Ageing midfield with not-totally-convincing replacements: Check
A squad that had shown its resistance and unsuitability to a high-intensity style and high defensive line: Check
Megalomaniacal owner with a tendency to hire and fire: Check (Moratti and Abramovich)
After being unable to solve this set of problems at 1 club, why did people expect AVB to be able/willing to do it again somewhere else?

Mon the Staggies

Rangers in Administration

So, the announcement that has shocked everyone and no-one- Rangers have lodged their intention to go into administration. What does this mean, I hear you ask?

Firstly, the club, assuming administration (i.e the size of their liabilities (debts) exceed the value of their assets) is entered within the next 10 days, will incur an automatic 10 point penalty from the SPL (which, in the current table, would leave them still in 2nd place, 5 points ahead of Motherwell but 14 behind Celtic) along with a player registration embargo (better get Daniel Cousin's paperwork signed off quickly, lads). The club will then be placed in the control of an administrator (most likely appointed by either HMRC or their bank), whose task will be to return the club to a position where it can trade normally. This would be achieved by a combination of cost-cutting, sale of assets and negoitating more lenient terms with creditors- this is known as a Company Voluntary Agreement.

A Company Voluntary Agreement (CVA) is where the club would agree with the creditor to write off the debt in return for paying off an agreed percentage of the debt. However, any CVA would require HMRC to approve, as a CVA can only be passed if approved by 75% or more of the creditors by value. A recent example of a CVA being approved would be Dundee FC, who managed to obtain a CVA paying just 6p in the pound- again, the major creditor was HMRC. That's not to say that a CVA will even be proposed, never mind accepted. In order for a CVA to be accepted, all concerned (the directors, administrator and creditors) need to be convinced that the business can be made viable and that the mistakes that led the business to insolvency have been learned, and will not be repeated.

While an agreement with creditors will be rigorously pursued, firstly over the next 10 days by the existing directors, then potentially by an administrator, there will no doubt be considerable emphasis placed on cost-cutting and the potential sale of assets. Expect to see a significant reduction in wage costs at Ibrox, with many non-playing personnel either being made redundant (with possibly an informal understanfing that, should the club return to a financially stable position, they be rehired) or asked to take a pay cut. The sale of players is a more complicated matter, with the transfer window now being shut for most European clubs- Sweden, Norway and Russia being the exceptions, and any prospect of raising significant transfer fees from there deemed slim (big-spending Anzhi Machachkala shop at more luxury boutiques), likewise the Americas. In any case, Rangers have a relatively small squad, containing few players who could be expected to command a transfer fee sizeable enough to make a real difference to the financial position.

One possible idea could be to arrange for the sales of players to go through at the end of the season when the transfer window reopens with Rangers receiving the money upfront while keeping the player until the summer. However, looking again at the recent example of Dundee being in a similar position, and trying to do the same thing when selling Leigh Griffiths to Wolves, the SPL and SFA are unlikely to be too keen on the club doing this- it could be seen to give the club an unfair advantage by having both the player and the monies for his transfer at the same time.

As for the rest of Scottish football, while there will no doubt be much Schadenfreude from the supporters (some of it understandable), this is not necessarily a good day for Scottish football. For instance, Dundee United (their share of the gate receipts from their recent Scottish Cup win at Ibrox) and Hearts (the final instalment of the Lee Wallace transfer fee) are both owed sums in the region of £100,000 by Rangers. What also should be concerning is that they are unable to afford to sign the cream of the talent from the rest of the SPL, with English Championship clubs now able to outbid them in terms of transfer fees and wages, therefore denying the players the possibility of Champions League (or, more likely, Europa League) football, and denying Celtic any real competition domestically. One also has to wonder about the commercial appeal of an SPL deprived of a competitive Rangers team, although none of these reasons should in any way prevent the relevant authorities (HMRC, SPL, SFA, administrators and other creditors) for seeking a favourable resolution, whatever the consequences. Contrary to the adverts, tax appears to be taxing in this case

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

26th March 2010, it has been far too long.
Thought I'd blast out some words to inform you all of the current craze sweeping through my work.
By “craze” I actually mean myself and Scot talking over a pint about how to finally get a bloody coupon up.
Previously the pass at work has looked like this on a Saturday. Usually getting bust by 3pm as I forgot to check the times of the kick-offs before placing the bets hastily while late for work on a Saturday morning.

The idea is, instead of doing a long accumulator with a few dead certs and a couple of more risky and lucrative bets we change our approach and do a continuous accumulator. Start of with a £10, and just do one (odds on if you fell scared) bet a day, constantly increasing your stake.
Set a target out, for me it’s going to be £100. Then, do it all over again. I’ve searched around on the internet for anyone doing this and stumbled across this wee gem of a website. It explains the process far more eloquently and soberly than I can.
http://theaccumulator.co.uk/index.html
So, starting from Tuesday, 24th January. I will adopting this process of gambling. I’ll only ever risk £10 and if it comes of it is a more enjoyable and rewarding system off saving money than doing something stupid and putting your money into an ISA.
Rest assured if this system works I’ll write back and let you know.
In the meantime, here is a terrible but lucrative bet for this midweek.
1) I fancy Motherwell for 3rd spot in the SPL this season. If their stadium doesn’t catch fire I think they will be strong enough to pump Dunfermline.
4/6
2) Leviadiakos are 19/1 to beat Panathinaikos on the 25th. That has to be worth a quid!
3) Andy Carrol, anytime goalscorer against Manchester City on Wednesday night. No, on second thoughts just ignore that one.
Have fun and enjoy losing your money,
All the best and good betting!

Weekend Betting, Saturday 21st January

Big weekend of soccer matches coming up (although, to be honest, they're all going to be big now. We're getting towards the part of the season where the football actually gets good), let's have a look at what we can have a punt on:

• Newcastle away at Fulham firstly. The Geordies are currently shorn of 2 key men in Cheik Tiote and Demba Ba, along with new number 9 Papiss Demba Cisse. However, despite an arguably poor performance they still had more than enough to see of QPR last weekend. Fulham are wildly inconsistent this season, and were extremely poor last time out away at Blackburn. An improvement at home will be hoped for, but Newcastle are well worth backing, with 3/1 generally available


• Stoke at home to West Brom has home win written all over it. West Brom's early-mid season form has tailed off badly, with Woy Hodgson's side winless in the league since early December and facing a Stoke side against whom they have a horrible recent record- 2 draws and 7 defeats for West Brom in their last 9 meetings. With the Europa League put to bed until the middle of next month, Stoke have recovered their league form, and are available at 11/10 to triumph with Hills. Get on that if you know what's good for you


• As regular readers will know, I like a bit of trend-spotting. I like to find a reliable bet with good returns and stick it on most weeks. Last season, that was backing Norwich to win most games, which itself replaced Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. This season has yet to produce such a bet, apart from, well..er...Norwich again. The on-form Canaries are available at 5/1 to pull off a win against a slightly unconvincing Chelsea, shorn currently of Didier Drogba. They are not, though, without a goal threat, with Juan Mata adapting well to English football. He's 2/1 to score anytime today against a Norwich defence that has ye to keep a clean sheet this season


• Outside the Premier League, there are a plethora of teams at backable odds today, among them Barnsley, Birmingham, Bournemouth and Carlisle

Tuck in

Weekend Betting, Saturday 7th January

Into 2012 we go, and it's FA Cup 3rd Round (and Scottish Cup 4th Round) weekend. Plenty of opportunities for shocks, they tell us. Plenty of opportunity for betting, I tell you. Here are some pointers:

• There's a growing trend towards making wholesale changes for the FA Cup, particularly among the Premier League clubs (nobody in the SPL has a big enough squad to make wholesale changes and still field a strong line-up). With that in mind, it's worthwhile waiting to see teamsheets before backing or opposing certain teams. 2 fixtures that immediately come to mind regarding this are Barnsley v Swansea and Norwich v Burnley. In both matches, if both teams were at full-strength, then Swansea (6/4) and Norwich (18/19) should both prevail fairly comfortably, but both sides are likely to prioritise their Premier League campaigns, and could send out much-changed sides, giving an opportunity to the Championship clubs


• In-form lower league club at home to out-of-form Premier League club? Those sound like the conditions required for a cup shock. 2 prime examples of where these conditions apply are at MK Dons (7/4) and Swindon (21/10), who host misfiring QPR and Wigan respectively. Those prices will become even more appealing should the visiting sides make changes, as highlighted above. Cardiff (4/1) are also well worth a punt when they travel to West Brom


• There are some ties, though, that should surely merit comfortable wins for the favourites, and could therefore form part of a reasonably safe accumulator, namely Everton, Fulham, Sheffield United and Tottenham


• In the Scottish Cup, a similar coupon can be put together: back Hearts, Motherwell, Partick and St Johnstone to get the job done on Saturday. Shock-wise, if you're feeling really adventurous, then have a wee look at Arbroath v Rangers. Arbroath are going well in the 2nd Division and are unbeaten at home this season- Rangers travel to Gayfield without a number of key players, and with uncertainty surrounding the future of striker Nikica Jelavic, their attacking edge has been blunted of late. The draw is available at 13/2

FIFPRO World XI Shortlist

Evening folks.

So, that FIFPRO World XI Shortlist, eh? This writer is of the opinion that it's an absolute joke. There are some players on the list who simply should not be there for 2011, while there are some glaring omissions. So many glaring omissions, in fact, that I reckon you could put together a pretty decent team out of them. Here goes:

GK: David De Gea (Man Utd, Spain U21)
RB: Maxi Pereira (Benfica, Uruguay)
CB: Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
CB: Adil Rami (Valencia, France)
LB: Fabio Coentrao (Real Madrid, Portugal)
DM: Diego Perez (Bologna, Uruguay)
CM: Toni Kroos (Bayern Munchen, Germany)
AMR: Mario Gotze (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
AML: Ezequiel Lavezzi (Napoli, Argentina)
AMC: Marek Hamsik (Napoli, Slovakia)
ST: Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, Argentina)

Pretty strong, eh? Additionally, this line-up, unlike most of these "fantasy teams" would actually work as a team. The addition of Diego Perez as the midfield destroyer would offer freedom to both full-backs, who are extremely adventurous, to roam forward. The attacking wide players, Gotze and Lavezzi, are interchangeable, and swapping them would add even more creativity to a talented attacking central midfield (where Kroos and Hamsik are also interchangeable, offering different styles of support to Higuain), and also create even more space in attacking wide positions for Maxi and Coentrao. There's a pretty handy collection of subs available, too:

GK: Justo Villar (Valladolid and Paraguay)
DFs: Diego Lugano (Paris S-G and Uruguay), Alvaro Pereira (Porto and Uruguay)
MFs: Nuri Sahin (Real Madrid and Turkey), Luka Modric (Tottenham and Croatia), Javier Mascherano (Barcelona, Argentina), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, Chile)
STs: Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona, Chile), Antonio Di Natale (Udinese, Italy), Pedro (Barcelona, Spain)

F1 2012 Driver Market Part 2

As it says on the tin:

Williams
Nothing yet confirmed here, however the most likely partnership seems to be Pastor Maldonado alongside F1 returnee, 2007 world champion Kimi Raikkonen, with current team leader Rubens Barrichello sent on his way to retirement, or possibly a temporary gig at Lotus until Robert Kubica is fit. Now this writer is no fan of Maldonado- despite being statistically the worst Williams driver ever (and in this case, the stats do not lie), he will almost certainly retain his seat at Barrichello's expense, primarily due to the sponsorship deal he brings to the team from PDVSA, the Venezuelan state oil company, said to be worth somewhere in the region of £25 million per year. That deal, though, is reportedly under scrutiny- should the plug be pulled, that will almost certainly be the end of Maldonado's less-than-impressive F1 career, certainly with Williams, which could lead to Barrichello being retained, or perhaps a seat for likely Force India refugee Adrian Sutil

Toro Rosso
The smart money (and, in this writer's opinion, the smart thing to do) is on the retention of Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari. However, both Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne of the Red Bull young driver stable are pushing very hard for a race seat- 1 of the 2 is likely to get at least some Friday morning mileage with the team, with a mid-season promotion a strong possibility should Buemi or Alguersuari fail to deliver

Marussia (nee Virgin)
Another name-changer. Timo Glock has a contract for 2012 and will be retained unless offered a drive from a much bigger team, which seems highly unlikely. Alongside him looks likely to be GP2 graduate Charles Pic, with Jerome D'Ambrosio likely to find himself gaining occasional employment as Lotus reserve driver- he's not thought to be a serious contender for a race seat. Canadian Robert Wickens could yet claim a race seat, but is more likely to find himself as 3rd driver, doing the odd Friday run

HRT
Pedro de la Rosa is confirmed as 1 of their drivers. The 2nd seat is likely to be decided by the size of the driver's budget. De la Rosa's compadre, GP2 graduate Dani Clos, is likely to be a contender having tested for the team during the Abu Dhabi young driver test. The addition of de la Rosa is a smart one, providing technical direction and a solid benchmark should a top team wish to evaluate a young driver, such as Red Bull did with Daniel Ricciardo

F1 2012. Who's driving where?

And now for something slightly different....

The driver market for F1 2012 is starting to take shape, however, as I'm about to show, there's still much to be decided:

Top 4 teams
All done and dusted. Mclaren (Button and Hamilton), Red Bull (Vettel and Webber), Ferrari (Alonso and Massa) and Mercedes (Schumacher and Rosberg) are all staying put, at least for the start of 2012. More on that later

Lotus (nee Renault)
This is something of a basket case. Of the current incumbents, Vitaly Petrov has a contract for 2012 and brings in excess of £10 million in funding, but last week's rant on Russian TV at the team must raise questions about his future at Enstone. While he has subsequently apologised, one key quote stood out from the email: "I have one last opportunity to try and make you proud in Brazil". Alongside him since Belgium has been Bruno Senna, who has made a solid if unspectacular impression. A race seat for next season for him is probably dependent on him finding more financial backing. Romain Grosjean is set to take Petrov's car for FP1 in Brazil on Friday, and is widely thought to be a strong contender for a race seat, with him now being stronger and more mature than in his brief stint with the team in 2009. There is also the matter of Robert Kubica- while he has no contract for 2012 with the team, boss Eric Boullier has spoken of the moral obligation he feels to Kubica- if he's race fit for winter testing, one has to believe there's a cockpit waiting for him- if he wants it. More on that later. Externally, another opetion could be Adrian Sutil if he is not retained by Force India, however they are set to be priced out of a move for Kimi Raikkonen. Boullier has already stated his intenton to have 2 top class drivers in the car for 2013.

Force India
Much more straightforward- 2 from Adrian Sutil, Paul Di Resta and test driver Nico Hulkenberg. Paddock consensus seems to be moving towards a Di Resta-Hulkenberg pairing, with Sutil set to go and knock on the doors of Lotus and Williams for a drive

Sauber
Even more straightforward. Current incumbents Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez are both retained

Caterham (nee Lotus)
Again, nice and simple. Current incumbents Heikki Kovalainen and Jarno Trulli are retained

Part 2, featuring the remaining teams and Robert Kubica, to follow later this week, but before Brazil

Partick Thistle v Ross County- Michael Fraser's Distribution

Evening. (insert excuse for lack of activity on this blog here)

Yesterday, I decided to study County keeper Michael Fraser's distribution, and also to have a look specifically at County's shooting. I'll return to the shooting later, but firstly Fraser's distribution.The basic results are that, of the 24 times Fraser played the ball, he managed to find a team-mate just 5 times (I intend to have the graphic showing this online tomorrow). This gives Fraser a pass completion figure of just 20.83%. It's probably slightly unfair to level that exclusively as a criticism of Fraser, and it should also be noted that he kept a clean sheet and dealt competently with then somewhat stifled Partick Thistle threat, most notably a flying save late on to deny David Rowson what would have been a rather ill-deserved equaliser for Thistle.

It should be noted that Fraser's cause wasn't helped by the fact that many of his goal kicks and passes were directed at Michael Gardyne who, for all his technical ability, is always going to struggle to compete aerially. Compare and contrast this with the game away to Dundee 3 weeks ago, where the more physically imposing Sam Morrow was in the team instead, and able to retain the ball far more often.

The nature of Fraser's distribution is also worthy of comment. Apart from 6 occasions where he had to leave his goal, either in anticipation of forthcoming danger or to take a free-kick, all his kicks were straight down the middle, aiming for 1 of the 2 frontmen. It seems County this season are not for building from the back, or at least not involving Fraser- there were, interestingly, a couple of excellent transitions from defence to offence ending in shots on goal which completely bypassed Fraser. While it sounds churlish to be finding fault with a team unbeaten in 10 league games and top of the league, should County be denied the services of both Morrow and Colin McMenamin, they are going to have real issues with ball retention in the attacking 3rd of the park. But we'll worry about that another day

Thoughts from today's games

Something of a Super Saturday today in the Premie League (no offence, but Norwich v West Brom and Fulham v Blackburn a Super Sunday does not make), here are my thoughts for your digestion:

• The biggest surprise at the Britannia Stadium today is that people were surprised by the result. Stoke have always been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, and their deadline day additions have enhanced them even more. Liverpool's start may have looked encouraging, but if you dig a bit deeper the truth is rather different- they only gained control during their 2-0 win at Arsenal once Arsenal DM Frimpong had been dismissed and the Bolton side they dispatched have been exposed as severely wanting by both Manchester clubs. In summary, they are a long way from any sort of title challenge- fourth place is probably the extent of their realistic ambitions. Of Stoke, should they cope with this season's Europa League allied to their league campaign, then an entry to next season's competition is not beyond them


• The Myth of Bolton Under Owen Coyle: they are no more aesthetically pleasing and no less thuggish than they were under both Megson and Allardyce. The only advantages Coyle has on Megson are that his teams do at least play with 2 wingers and 2 out-and-out strikers, and that he is more media-savvy. 8 defeats in their last 9 as well- the end-of-season slump from last season has not been arrested


• FAO Kevin Davies: I hope you're proud of yourself for your assault on Tom Cleverley today. Despite the injury, Cleverley has achieved more in the last 6 weeks than you've done in your entire career. You and your mate Paul Robinson should have been off before the 20th minute today. And what happened to you roughing up De Gea?


• It would be a surprise if both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling do not make the England squad for Euro 2012. One of the 2 should make the right-back berth their own, and after another shambolic showing today, there must be question marks about Gary Cahill's ability at the highest level, as highlighted by this blog recently

I'm Still Here!

Ahoy sailors! Thought I'd better post an article-type on this here blog of mine (it's been a while and all that) about the soccer, eh? So here are some musings from yesterday's action:

• Car Crash FC (aka Arsenal) had a bit of a disaster yesterday, and the injury to Laurent Koscielny has heightened calls for Arsene Wenger to sign another central defender. Among the names suggested has been Gary Cahill, however there must be doubts about Cahill's ability to fit into Arsenal's playing style, however good he may be aerially. The clearest example of this would be Cahill's pass completion stats from Bolton's 4-0 opening day win at QPR, in which Cahill succesfully completed only 28 of 39 passes (71.79%), which pales into comparison Koscielny's stats from Arsenal's 0-0 draw at Newcastle of 50 of 59 (84.75%) succesfully completed passes


• 2 more players linked with Car Crash FC have been Phil Jagielka of Everton and Scott Dann of Birmingham. Looking at the same stats for these 2 players, Jagielka didn't exactly cover himself in glory, losing possession in the build-up to QPR's goal, and completing only 74.45% of his passes successfully, with Dann faring only slightly better in Birmingham's 1-1 draw at home to Spurs last season (77.14%). Arsene Wenger's hunt for a ball-playing centre-back is likely to lead him overseas


• Sunderland's Simon Mignolet didn't impress in their 1-0 defeat at home to Newcastle- his positioning for Ryan Taylor's goal was terrible, so much so that it would have been rude of Taylor not to put the ball in the far corner (the goal he conceded at Liverpool last weekend was from a similar position on the other side). Mignolet's distribution was poor as well, with less than half of his passes finding a team-mate. It's therefore difficult to see why Mignolet is in Steve Bruce's team ahead of the far superior Craig Gordon


• I quite like the Guardian chalkboards

Also, y'all may have noticed the absence of a full-blown season preview. This is mainly due to the fact that I've been superuberdeuberdeduper busy, but also because of the situation where the season starts before the close of the transfer window. Therefore, were I to write at the beginning of August, for example, that Stoke City needed a new striker, Tony Pulis could then read this and go out and sign the required frontman