So This Whole Newco Nonsense....

With a vote on July 4th to decide the identity of the SPL's "Club 12", let's have a look at the season-ticket situation. Many clubs are reporting (well, not reporting, but information is being leaked/extracted) that their season ticket sales are not merely falling but completely collapsing, due to the uncertainty regarding Club 12- some clubs are believed to have not yet shifted 200 season tickets when they would have expected to sell 10 times that number by this point in the summer. It's been well-documented why this is- supporters of all other SPL teams (and even a number of Rangers fans) do not want to see Newco Rangers allowed straight back in to the SPL, and many fans do not want to spend time and money backing a club that is complicit in their readmission to the league.

This got me thinking- how many season-ticket holders would a club need to lose to offset the additional ticket revenue brought in by the Rangers travelling support?

The answer is not many. I've collated the following pieces for each of the 10 SPL clubs who were there last season and will be there this season (newly-promoted Ross County didn't play Rangers last season and relegated Dunfermline won't play them this season. Their season ticket figures of approx 1250 so far are actually more positive than much of the SPL, helped by their clear No to Newco stance):

• The cost of a 2012/13 Adult season ticket (where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
• The cost of a 2011/12 Adult ticket for a match v Rangers (2012/13 individual match ticket prices are not available for most clubs at this time, and they're unlikely to fluctuate much anyway. Again, where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
• The approximate number of tickets allocated to Rangers for these games in 2011/12

From these figures, by multiplying the number of tickets allocated to Rangers by the ticket price for these games, we can derive the total ticket revenue to the host club from the game. By then dividing this figure by the cost of a season ticket, we can establish an approximate figure of how many season ticket holders a club would need to lose to offset the additional revenue of the visit of Rangers. The full results are as follows:

Aberdeen- 430 season ticket holders
Celtic- 541
Dundee United- 384
Hearts- 296
Hibs- 294
Inverness CT- 149
Kilmarnock- 606
Motherwell- 417
St Johnstone- 366
St Mirren- 242

From these figures, the stance of many clubs suddenly becomes clear. It's now far easier to see why Kilmarnock chairman Michael Johnston is vocal in his support for allowing Newco Rangers back into the SPL-with their diminishing crowds and comparatively large stadium capacity, Johnston feels Kilmarnock need to sell 2 full stands to Rangers fans twice a season in order to survive, and that he'd struggle to sell over 600 additional season-tickets to compensate for their departure. For the remainder of clubs, though, it's clear that only a small number of their season-ticket holders need not renew for them to lose out. It should also be factored in that for 2012/13, if Club 12 are not Newco Rangers, then they will almost certainly be Dundee, who would take a comparable travelling support to Dundee United, St Johnstone and perhaps Aberdeen to that of Rangers. For those reasons alone, that should be 3 No to Newco votes wrapped up- with Hibs chairman Rod Petrie previously vocal about sporting integrity being the priority, we can assume that Hibs will also vote No- they also need to retain all the season ticket holders they can (especially after a poor season on the pitch), as they need only lose fewer than 300 to offset the Newco travelling fans. Even allowing for the likely Yes vote from Kilmarnock for the reasons already mentioned, that's already 4 likely No votes, and would Celtic really turn down an opportunity to relegate their oldest rivals from the top flight?

Another factor to be considered is that, with each passing day, it becomes more and more difficult for Newco Rangers to put together everything they'll need to be competitive next season should they be in the SPL- no players have signed as of yet (Newco Rangers are obliged to OFFER Oldco Rangers' players and staff a new contract, but they players and staff are not obliged to accept) and season-ticket holders must be wondering whether they should commit to paying SPL prices for their tickets which could yet be for 3rd Division football, or even for no football at all. And one can only wonder at how Ally McCoist (if he is to continue as manager) has been preparing- does he devise a pre-season programme based on the technique required for the SPL (not much admittedly) or for the more physical, bruising nature of the 3rd division? Can he build a strong squad of quality players for an assault on the SPL, or does he have to try and find 18-20 part-time players for the bottom tier? The longer he has to wait, the more likely someone else is going to come in for all those players. Do the other SPL clubs really want a team who may not be able to compete with them whilst in financial turmoil, a la Gretna?

Lastly, I'd recommend that, if you're a fan of an SPL team, you let them know your feelings. Teams need to listen to their fans more than ever in these challenging times for Scottish football

Edited on 19.6.2012 for updated figures, thanks @MitchellenMan