Why I'm Loving the Copa America

As the title suggests, here's a quick irreverent rundown of why I'm enjoying the tournament so far:

• There's quality players I'm discovering that even I hadn't heard of. For instance, Estigarribia of Paraguay, whose reward for dismantling Dani Alves (yes, that Dani Alves) against Brazil was to get Dani Alves dropped. Unfortunately for Estigarribia, the bizarre tournament format means he now will most likely have to face the much more defensively-sound (well, unless your name is Gareth Bale) Maicon in the quarter-finals. Also impressing was Venezuela's pirate-like centre-back Vizcarrondo, about whom Alexandre Pato is still probably having nightmares


• There's an underlying feeling that this is a football tournament for proper football geeks like yours truly. ESPN's excellent, unflashy coverage, the late kick-off times, the regular tweets and Guardian columns of football tactics God Jonathan Wilson, this is a tournament for those who know their football


• Following on from that point, the variety of different tactics and formations (far, far more than in any European tournament) have really added to the Copa. This writer will resist from going into too much depth in this post, but the contrast between, say, Argentina's 4-3-3, Chile (more on them later) and their 3-3-1-3/3-4-1-2, Brazil's 4-2-3-1 and Uruguay's 4-4-2 is fascinating


• Chile. I adore them. The breathtaking all-out attack style favoured at the World Cup by Marcelo Bielsa has been continued by his successor, Claudio Borghi. Borghi has at times favoured adding another central midfielder at the expense of one of the front 3, but even that has helped release playmaker Jorge Valdivia, who excelled in the space between Uruguay's back 4 and midfield. And then there's Alexis Sanchez. Wonderful, wonderful player-unlike many of the other star names at the tournament, he's actually lived up to his headline billing, embodying the spirit of his team beautifully with his pace, trickery and technique. Should he, as expected, join Barcelona after the Copa, the rest of Europe might as well give up

Shifty's End of the Season Awards Sponsored By Sea Salt and Balsamic Vinegar Kettle Chips

Right, it's that time of the year again (how many of my posts start like that, by the way?), awards time!

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

Plenty of candidates for this one. Headline candidates include Sir Alex Ferguson for knocking the scouse c***s (there's 2 sweary words that could be) off their perch, Pep Guardiola for another masterful campaign with Barcelona and Andre Villas Boas (Porto's Liga Sagres record this season: P30 W27 D3 L0 under the 33, yes 33, year-old), and all 3 were considered for this award. Also considered were some less well-known candidates: Jurgen Klopp steered a dazzling young Borussia Dortmund side to a deserved Bundesliga title, Luis Garcia worked miracles on a shoestring budget and with an ageing backline at Levante, fostering a fantastic team spirit as they comfortably avoided relegation from La Liga, while Barry Smith at Dundee responded to a 25 point deduction with a 23 game unbeaten run with a team shorn of its best players due to financial meltdown featuring kids, trialists, has-beens and never-will-bes. Now, I'd be at risk of opening myself up to accusations of bias if the award goes to Klopp or Ferguson, so I'll give it to Villas Boas for not just his record with Porto this season (their dismantling of Villarreal, whose own boss Juan Carlos Garrido nearly made the shortlist, was as remarkable as it was spectacularly impressive), but for getting me annoyed in that he was 6 years ahead of me in starting his coaching badges, and for the fact there's no chance he's getting this award next season

GAME OF THE SEASON

Easy one this. Back in February, runaway leaders of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund, travelled to Bayern Munchen, knowing that a win could effectively seal their title, while a defeat could let Bayern back in. What followed was a fantastic match, played at a crazily high tempo, but with the highest quality of technique, particularly from Dortmund, who took an early lead through Lucas Barrios, who outpaced Holger Badstuber to finish expertly. Bayern equalised soon after through a Luiz Gustavo header, but Dortmund retook the lead midway through the 1st half, their high intensity pressing game saw Badstuber dispossed inside his own half, with the ball finding its way to Nuri Sahin 22 yards out, who curled a beautifully-placed shot into the net. The hapless Badstuber was hauled off at half-time as Bayern piled pressure on Dortmund, with debutant goalkeeper Mitchell Langerak called upon may times. He didn't let his team down, though, and midway through the 2nd half Mats Hummels powered in a header from a corner to give Dortmund a 3-1 lead which proved unassailable, as they contained the Bayern threat until full-time, with Sahin and Sven Bender dominating the midfield, leaving Bastian Schweinsteiger floundering

More awards to follow. Probably Friday

Sheep's Stag Do Betting Review

Well, what a weekend that was. And now that the bruises have healed, the superinjunctions have (for legal reasons, I cannot complete that sentence), the flirtatious texts to the Varsity big screen have been sent and Shifty's kart has been fixed, we can now look back at the betting tips for the weekend

First to be strip-searched at the airport
While there was no actual strip-searching taking place, Shifty's unfortunate decision to wear a pair of jeans with a busted top button left him, without his belt, in a horribly precarious situation going through security on Sunday
Winner: Shifty @ 7/4

Anyone to miss a flight
No- just. The Stag himself, Sheep, made the outbound flight with just moments to spare

To win the poker
As expected, G-Ham triumphed here, with Pud claiming 2nd prize and each-way honours. Sheep's lack of poker experience saw him end up with the wooden spoon
Winner: G-Ham @ 9/2
Runner-up: Pud @ 7/2

First to check in with the other half
Winner: Sheep @ 5/6

First to crack on to Hooters waitress
There was only going to be one winner here, and Duguid lived up to his billing as favourite, inquiring as to whether the attractive brunette serving us would like to join us in post-meal revellery. It is not clear if Duguid has ever NOT attempted to pull a waitress serving him
Winner: Duguid @ 5/4

When will the first Jagerbombs be had?
They were very nearly had on Saturday afternoon at the hotel bar, however the bar, clearly not stocked for 7 ravenous young souls, was not stocked with Jager, and so the Jagerbombs were delayed until the evening
Winner: Saturday evening @ 2/1

Any "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep
Winner: Yes @ 11/10. Let's leave it at that, there were "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep

First to be kicked out of the strip club
Astonishingly, no-one!

To spend most money in the strip club
Let's just say this was a keenly-fought contest

Anyone for a roast?
Unfortunately not. You can bet your house that, had there been one, Shifty would have been involved

To have the biggest Premier Inn breakfast
Sheep's mammoth effort on Saturday morning sees him claim this one. Honourable mention for Shifty's efforts on both Saturday and Sunday sees him claim each-way honours

Winner: Sheep @ 9/2
Runner-up: Shifty @ 6/4

To win the karting
A closely-fought contest between Sheep and Duguid was decided when Duguid, remembering that he should let the stag win, crashed. For such nobility, he has earned each-way honours. Shifty ended up with 3 wheels on his wagon, and retired due to chronic understeer

Winner: Sheep @ 5/2
Runner-up: Duguid @ 2/1

First to spew
To everyone's credit, there was no spewing action in Cardiff, Pud's late entry back in Aberdeen notwithstanding. This "award" is actually going to be shared on each-way terms of 1/2 for 1st and 2nd between Pud and G-Ham, for sporting the most impressive bruises after karting

Winners: G-Ham @ 6/1, Pud @ 4/1

So how did everyone do?
Let's see who managed to pick up a few wins, and who would have made any speculative, Brush-like punters a few bob. All 7 took part in 7 events, apart from Doug who did not kart. All returns are based on a 1 unit stake in each market

Sheep: 3 wins @ 5/6, 9/2 and 5/2
Total return 10.8333 units

Duguid: 2 wins @ 5/4 and 2/1
Total return 5.25 units

Shifty: 2 wins @ 7/4 and 6/4
Total return: 5.25 units

Pud: 2 wins @ 7/2 and 4/1
Total return: 9.5 units

G-Ham: 2 wins @ 9/2 and 6/1
Total return: 12.5 units

Sheep's Stag Weekend Part 3

By popular demand, here's Part 3 of the betting preview of Sheep's Stag Weekend

First to be strip-searched at the airport
Shifty 7/4, Doug 3/1, Sheep 7/2, Duguid 5/1, G-Ham 6/1, Rory 8/1, Pud 10/1

Given that the CIA have been monitoring his movements for a number of years, Shifty has to be favourite in this somewhat abstract market. Doug could be a contender here too

Anyone to miss a flight or train (there or back)
Yes 2/1
No 4/9

To win the poker
G-Ham 9/2, Doug 5/1, Pud 13/2, Shifty 7/1, Sheep 8/1, Duguid 10/1, Rory 12/1

G-Ham has been successful on the gambling front before, and is just favourite. Doug is a mean poker player, while Pud and Shifty could also be in contention

First to check in with their other half
Sheep 5/6, Rory evens

Almost too close too call is this one

First to crack on to Hooters waitress
Duguid 5/4, Shifty 4/1, Sheep 6/1, Pud 6/1, G-Ham 8/1, Doug 8/1, Rory 8/1

Duguid has to be the market leader here. It just remains to be seen if the chat-up attempt will be delivered to the unlucky lady's face or chest. Shifty's attempt to impress may consist of ordering more than just chips

When will the first Jagerbombs be had?
Friday 12/1
Saturday morning 25/1
Saturday afternoon 7/2
Saturday evening 2/1
Sunday 50/1
None during the weekend 100/1

Any "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep
Examples would include the stereotypical stag do pranks
Yes 11/10
No 4/6

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th April

Well, with all the blogging about next weekend's debauchery going on, I thought I'd better squeeze in (or should that be squeeze out) a look at some of this weekend's games:

• There looks like being only 1 winner of Chelsea v Tottenham tomorrow teatime, and it's not Tottenham. Paddy Power will give you 8/15 on the home win, which would see Chelsea continue their recent good form which has seen them overhaul Arsenal in 2nd place. Tottenham can't be fancied, given their recent form- 1 win in their last 8 games in all competitions. Tottenham may also have one of their main attacking threats somewhat subdued- with Benoit Assou-Ekotto injured, Gareth Bale may have to drop back to left-back. Add this to the breaking of Fernando Torres' scoring duck, and the complete lack of form of any of Tottenham's strikers, and Chelsea to Win to Nil holds some appeal at 9/5 with Unibet


• Blackpool v Stoke looks a tough one to call. Stoke appear not to have suffered any sort of hangover from their FA Cup Semi Final dismantling of Bolton, having drawn at Aston Villa and beaten Wolves at home since. Having said that, one can make a case for Blackpool, who won the reverse fixture 2-0 and will create chances against anyone. Therefore, the bet to be on is Both Teams to Score at 8/13 with Stan James, a bet that has a 100% success rate at Bloomfield Road this season


• The remainder of the Premier League games on Saturday (and probably Blackpool v Stoke) all look distinctly drawy- this could be an opportunity for a rather speculative punt. Any combination of 4 of those games all to end in draws will generate odds of approximately 95/1. Have a go

EVERYBODY GTF (GET TO FALKIRK) TOMORROW. MON THE STAGGIES!

Shepherd's Stag Weekend, Cardiff: Part 2

Here, by popular demand, are some more markets to keep an eye on for Shepherd's Stag Weekend in Cardiff:

First to be kicked out of the strip club
Duguid 2/1, Pud 5/2, Sheep 9/2, Shifty 11/2, Rory 7/1, G-Ham 8/1, Doug 9/1

Duguid is again among the frontrunners in this market, set to be dominated by the more excitable members of the group. The possibility of Shifty nodding off, while highly unlikely, cannot be completely ruled out

To spend most money in the strip club
Rory 5/1, Shifty 6/1, Duguid 6/1, Pud 7/1, Sheep 7/1, Doug 8/1, G-Ham 8/1

As the odds suggest, this is set to be a very close-run thing. Any one of the 7 could win this. Shifty has previous here, with Pud and Duguid (again) also set to feature prominently

Anyone for a roast?
Odds on it happening: 3/1
To take part if it does happen: Duguid 6/4. Pud 2/1, Shifty 3/1, G-Ham 4/1, Doug 6/1
Again, Rory and Sheep, being attached, are excluded from this market. Duguid is expected, along with possibly Pud and Shifty, to be pressing for this

To have the biggest Premier Inn breakfast
Shifty 3/1, Doug 7/2, Sheep 9/2, G-Ham 5/1, Pud 7/1, Rory 8/1, Duguid 8/1

Expect Shifty to plough through at least 2 bowls of cereal, some toast and maybe a bit of crumpet, in anticipation of a hearty weekend of debauchery. Doug, G-Ham and Sheep are unlikely to be far behind

Shepherd's Stag Weekend, Cardiff: Friday 6th- Sunday 8th May

The eagerly-anticipated stag do takes place next weekend, and this writer, being among the travelling party, thought it fitting to open up a few markets on the weekend

To Win the Karting
Shepherd 5/2, Duguid 4/1, Shifty 9/2, Rory 8/1, Pud 8/1, G-Ham 10/1, Doug 12/1

The karting event should be a very close-run thing. Sheep the Stag (which sounds like a classic piece of Northern fucked-up crossbreeding) will be the favourite due to his prowess behind the wheel of a kart, with Scotty Duguid, always quick behind the wheel, set to be close behind. Don't rule out a challenge from the ever-competitive Shifty, either, with the rest close behind

First To Spew
Duguid 3/1, Rory 5/1, Pud 8/1, Shifty 12/1, G-Ham 12/1, Doug 25/1, Sheep 50/1

Duguid and Rory are the 2 favourites in this market- both have previous for this on a night out. At the other end of the market, Doug is a fine specimen of a man, who knows how to hold his drink, while Sheep is unlikely to (willingly) ingest the quantities of alcohol required

To Pull
Duguid 6/4, Shifty 7/2, Pud 4/1, G-Ham 5/1, Doug 8/1
Rory and Sheep are excluded from this market due to their attached status
Expect Duguid and Shifty to be fairly enthusiastic about using their mandatory chat-up lines, and maybe even a few of their own

Blackpool v Chelsea, Monday 7th March

My Thoughts
2 sides here whose respective form is going in opposite directions. After a hugely promising start to the season, Blackpool's form has nosedived somewhat, with Ian Holloway's side bottom of the 6-match form table, and now just 2 points above the relegation zone. Chelsea, on the other hand, are getting back to their best form. Once Fernando Torres is fully integrated into their side, there may be even more to come from them

The Verdict
All the stats here point to an away win, and one by a considerable margin at that. Blackpool are further handicapped by the absence through suspension of both Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell. That said, they will still fancy their chances of scoring against a Chelsea defence which fares considerably worse away from home than at home- they have managed clean sheets in 62% of their league home games, but just 29% away from home, and with their gung-ho, all-out attack style, even without the aforementioned 2 key players, Blackpool should still create chances. That said, Blackpool's defensive record is little short of woeful- they have yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season, shipping 24 goals at Bloomfield Road so far (an average of 1.84 per game)- it's therefore nigh-on impossible to see at least one of Chelsea's frontline consisting of 2 from Torres, Anelka, Drogba and Kalou not hitting the net. It looks like goals could be plentiful, but Chelsea should come out on top. Away win

The Bet
With Chelsea a best price of just 1/3 with Paddy Power to win outright, best to look elsewhere for value. If Chelsea manage an early goal, then they should go on to win convincingly, therefore 2 bets to be looking at would be Half Time/ Full Time Chelsea/Chelsea available at a general 4/5, along with Chelsea on the handicap- Chelsea -1 available at 4/5 with Blue Square. A more speculative punt would be on the correct score- 3-1 Chelsea at 12/1 with Coral and 4-1 Chelsea at 17/1 with Unibet

Weekend Betting, Saturday 26th February

Howdy folks. Here are a few tips for the weekend for you to either:
a) spend what little is left of your last pay cheque on
b) start spending your new pay cheque on

• 'Tis the Carling Cup Final on Sunday. Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to win the trophy, although a defence as stodgy as Birmingham's could frustrate them for some time if Arsenal don't score early, therefore I'm thinking about avoiding Betfred's 4/7 on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes. I'm more tempted to place a sizeable sum on Arsenal Draw No Bet at 2/9 with Bwin, or the 3/10 on Arsenal to win the trophy at 3/10 with Skybet
• A league I know a fair bit about, having followed Ross County through its good, bad and mostly ugly travails, is the Scottish 1st Division, and there are a few interesting bets to be had today. One of the oldest footballing cliches is that the league table never lies. However, it does in the 1st Division this season, thanks to Dundee's 25 point deduction. Without it, they would be 6 points clear at the top of the league, which would be a fair reflection of their status as the best team in the league. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season, and hence are well worth backing at a general 4/7 to beat a Morton side with an away record of 1-4-5. Also worth backing in the 1st division are Falkirk to beat Cowdenbeath at a general 4/11. A more speculative punt in the same division comes at Stark's Park, where the first signs of the widely-expected Raith collapse have appeared, losing 3 of their last 5. John McGlynn's side are without a number of players due to injury for the visit of an improving Stirling Albion. If you're feeling particularly brave, Stirling can be backed to win at a general 15/2, otherwise the Double Chance Draw/Stirling is available at a general 12/5

RIP DEAN RICHARDS

AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February

My Thoughts

This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.

The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.

The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals

Why Andy Carroll IS Worth £35 Million

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But the price tag being bandied about for Carroll can be justified. Here's how.

At 22, Anrew Thomas Carroll still has the majority of his career ahead of him, and has already established himself in the Premier League and with the England national team. Given that his playing style is not overly reliant on pace, which usually a player starts to lose once they reach 30, it's not unreasonable to speculate that he has perhaps 12-15 years of top-flight and international football to look forward to. Given his current level of ability, allied to his future potential, his market value based purely on that is probably somewhere in the region of £15 million.

There are, however, more factors in a transfer fee than just that. Firstly, Carroll's English nationality and junior coaching at Newcastle means he counts as a "home-grown" player, of which each Premier League club must have at least 8 in their 25 man squad, with a similar rule in existence in European competition. Given the dearth of talented English players capable of performing regularly at the highest level, players such as Carroll are much sought-after, thereby increasing their market value- a recent example of this would be the £24 million Aston Villa paid for Darren Bent. Liverpool in particular are short on this type of player.

What also must be considered is the impact Carroll's departure at such a late stage in the transfer window would have on Newcastle. Should the transfer go through, Newcastle would have very little time to source a replacement for Carroll, and given that the prospective fee has been so publicised, this would hinder them in negotiations with other clubs (for example, should Newcastle offer £10 million for a new striker, why should the selling club not push them for more, knowing that Newcastle had £35 million in the bank?), and also leaves them surely too little time to bring in a replacement from overseas. The bracketed argument also applies to Newcastle as the club selling Carroll to Liverpool, with Liverpool's £50 million sale of Fernando Torres set to be completed.

Newcastle would also have to deal with the loss of a player who has scored almost 31% of their league goals this season. Should they fail to sign a striker to replace Carroll (and perhaps even if they do, as the prospective new striker settles in and Newcastle make any adjustment required to their playing style), they would have to deal with the increased possibility of finishing further down the league than their current 9th position, and perhaps even relegation.

And that is why Andy Carroll is worth £35 million

The Flaws in a 10 team SPL, and my vision for a better league, Part 1

It has been announced this week that the SPL have provisionally decided on a 10 team SPL, with a 12 team "SPL2" featuring new regulations such as a requirement for a minimum of 3000 seats and undersoil heating at teams' stadia, along with full-time youth players. Over a few parts (I'm thinking 3) I'll explain why I, along with the majority of Scottish football supporters, feel this is the wrong route for Scottish football to go down, and give my vision for an alternative. In this first part, I'll explain why an 18 team SPL is the way forward.

The basic structure I, as self-appointed Head of All of Scottish Football Administration, would consist of an 18 team SPL- each team would play each other twice. The Scottish First Division would consist of 16 teams, again each playing each other twice, with the Scottish Second Division again consisting of 16 teams, each playing each other twice. The Scottish Third Division would cease to continue, with the teams currently residing in it moving up to the new enlarged Second Division. Between the SPL and the First Division, there would be 3 automatic promotion places at the end of the season, with 3 automatic promotion places also available between the First Division and the Second Division. No promotion/relegation play-offs would be entered into, although this, along with the number of places, would be reviewed annually.

In the SPL, each team would play 34 games, with the First and Second Division teams playing 30 games each. This would allow for all 3 leagues to take a proper winter break of 4-6 weeks from roughly the middle of December to the middle of January, during which time climactic conditions usually prohibit the playing of much football anyway. To accommodate this, the 3 leagues would all start late July, then after returning from the winter break playing until early-mid May, with the final SPL fixtures 1 week after the final First and Second Division matches. The reduction in the number of games will lead to a reduction in the requirement for leauge matches to be played midweek, when crowds tend to be lower.

The Scottish Cup would continue in its existing format. However, the SFL Challenge Cup would be discontinued, in order to allow the SFL to focus on improving the strength of the First and Second Divisions, in order to ready their teams for the SPL.

The existing SPL stadium rules of a requirement for undersoil heating and 6000 seats would remain in place in the SPL. There would be no new ground rules for the First and Second Divisions, and teams promoted from the First Division to the SPL would have 6 months from the end of their promotion season to install enough seats to give them 6000, and a further 6 months to install undersoil heating, in order to minimise disruption to the playing surface mid-season.

The structure of an 18 team SPL, 16 team First Division and 16 team Second Division would require a total of 50 teams. There would be no "pyramid" structure below this, as contrary to popular belief, there is a limited level of desire among the Junior and Highland League clubs for it- the last time a place in the existing structure opened up (when Annan Athletic joined the SFL) there were only 5 applicants. That demand could easily be met by the 8 new places that would be available by clubs such as Spartans and Cove Rangers.

Well, that's my blueprint. Part 2 will follow soon

Today's Championship Games, Saturday 15th January

Thought I'd do some previews in a slightly different format today, and give y'all my thoughts on a few of today's Championship fixtures, a league I know a bit about (although not Swansea v Crystal Palace- that's already kicked off)

Bristol City v Middlesbrough
Both teams were rather disappointingly dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend by Sheffield Wednesday and Burton Albion respectively. Both sides started the season poorly, leading to managerial changes, but while Bristol City have recovered somewhat (with summer signing Brett Pitman finding his feet and starting to score goals at this level), Middlesbrough have been sluggish of late, and their dreadful 2-2-9 away record makes William Hill's 13/8 on Bristol City to win very appealing

Norwich v Cardiff
This 3rd v 2nd clash could be an absolute humdinger. Norwich have been very impressive under Paul Lambert this season- their squad contains few big household names, but many young players with potential and a point to prove, particularly after their FA Cup exit against Leyton Orient, and a strong holiday period leaves them well-placed for at least a play-off place. Cardiff, on the other hand, do have a smattering of big names and experienced players, but have had a ropey holiday period (last week's FA Cup draw away at Stoke notwithstanding), and have already lost 6 away games in the Championship this season. Snap up the 6/5 on Norwich offered by Boylesports

Nottingham Forest v Portsmuth
Forest have an unbeaten home record that stretches back as far as 30 games- their less impressive away form is the main barrier between them and a play-off place, and their attacking artillery looks set to be further enhanced by USA striker Robbie Findley. Portsmouth's recent form has dipped somewhat, culminating in a 3-1 defeat by Brighton in the FA Cup last time out, but they look like they should survive in the Championship this season, which would arguably be considered a success given their financial worries. Forest should be too strong at home for them, though, with 4/6 generally available on the home win

http://twitter.com/lewisdalgarno

Some Tips and Thoughts for 2011

Happy New Year, y'all!

Now, being the generous soul I am, I thought I'd furnish you with a few of my thoughts and tips for 2011. Here goes:

• At least 1 Midlands side will be relegated. Currently occupying 20th place are Wolves, and they look most likely to go down, due to their extreme difficulties in scoring and preventing the concession of goals. Last season, their home record kept them up, as their away form was honking. This season, however, their away form has remained honking (4 points from trips to Merseyside are all they have garnered thus far from 10 away games) while their home record of 4-2-4 leaves much to be desired. They are little better than 1/2 across the board to go down. Along with them, another Midlands team with dreadful away form, Birmingham City could well go down, as they too have seen a previously excellent home record disintegrate somewhat- they are 3-5-2 at home thus far. Frankly, Alex Mcleish's side would not be missed, with their defensive, physical approach and their continued deployment of Leeds Council Asian Community Outreach Officer Lee Bowyer. 32RED will give you 11/5 on Birmingham returning to the Championship
  
• Regular readers of this blog will know of my love for all bets based on Darren Bent scoring. His continued good form this season, along with Wayne Rooney's lack of proficiency infront of goal, means that the circa 3/1 currently on offer on Betfair for Bent to be the Top English Goalscorer in the Premier League should be snapped up


• The Premier League title is Manchester United's to lose.They have the ability and experience required to make it to the finishing line 1st, even though most of their performances this season have been at best average. The know-how of "Golden Oldies" Giggs, Scholes and van der Sar (Gary Neville might be old, but he certainly hasn't been golden when he's played this season), allied to the match-winning abilities of the likes of Nani (who had a sparkling 2010), Berbatov, Park (the scourge of Arsenal), Rooney (whose goal against West Brom might just see him kick on again) and Hernandez should see United claim a 19th league title. This side isn't up to the standard of Arsenal's 2003/04 unbeaten vintage or the Treble-winning side of 1998/99 (Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan, pictured, would never have got near that side), but it's arguably the strongest of the current league. Betfred will give you Evens on the Premier League trophy returning to Old Trafford. He can't understand why you'd bet anywhere else, and with that price, neither can I
  

Fancy a rummage in the January sales? Me neither. Get your hard-earned cash on those treats

• Anyone see that Simpsons episode (around about season 14 I think) where Mr Burns buys up every media outlet in Springfield apart from Lisa's Red Dress Press, where she inspires the residents of Springfield to oppose Burns' empire by starting their own newspapers? Well, I'd like to think of myself as Lisa to Mr Burn's Rupert Murdoch. Check out Graeme's Rant at http://gtm999.blogspot.com
• The Guardian is a great newspaper

FAO JAMES DART: I WANT A PLACE IN YOUR 100 FOR 2012

200 Not Out

Ladies, gentlemen, boys, girls and the ruler of the planet Omicron Persei 8 (actually, who am I kidding? No girls read this), history today is made, for this will be my 200th post on this here blog! Many thanks to all who have read and contributed since the birth of this blog sometime early last year. This special 200th post will feature a bit of everything that we've tried to encapsulate since we started:

Tottenham might not win the Premier League or the Champions League. But we're certainly having fun watching them try
Harry Redknapp's side's Champions League debut has been most impressive, topping what looked like a tricky group (even moreimpressive after being pillaged by Young Boys for the first 30 minutes of their first qualifier), playing with real attacking gumption, while also maintaining a league position on the shoulder of the leading pack. With their impressive array of attacking options, their games have tended to be particularly entertaining, with their 16 league matches so far featuring an average of 2.8125 goals (regular readers of this blog will know of my belief that the under/over 2.5 goals stat is as good an indicator as any of a side's entertainment value and attacking potency). Even more impressively, their 8 European games so far have seen that average rise to a frankly preposterous 4.75 goals per game. Even their 0-0 draw on the opening day at home to man citeh was entertaining, as their attack peppered Joe Hart's goal with shot after shot. Their clash with Chelsea at White Hart Lane on Sunday is massive for both sides

Manchester United might have finally found replacements for Giggs and Scholes- it's just taken Sunderland and Wigan for them to realise this
The form of Danny Welbeck and Tom Cleverley during their loan spells has been particularly impressive. The technical abilities of the pair have never been in doubt, with the players now gaining invaluable Premier League experience (along with England Under 21 honours) in preparation for, they hope, places in Man Utd's first team next season. Both have also proved to be extremely versatile performers, with Welbeck impressing for Sunderland both upfront and from the left wing, and Cleverley featuring right across Wigan's midfield, capable of both pulling the strings from a central position, and running at full-backs and providing industry from the wings

Now, some tips for this weekend (assuming the games go ahead)

• West Brom's form appears to have picked up after a recent slump, and they make the short trip to Villa Park in good spirits having won their last 2 league games, and with Villa seriously out of form themselves, Coral's 11/4 on the Baggies to triumph looks massive. Worth a punt, especially considering this writer priced them up at 9/5
• There's much that unites Stoke and Blackpool- fond memories of Stanley Matthews, larger than life characters in charge and defiance of expectations in the Premier League. However, there's much that divides them, too, most notably their styles of play. While Stoke's physical, direct style is well-documented, Blackpool's quick, attack-minded gameplan has been a breath of fresh air, although it does leave them exposed to the sort of rapid counter-attacks that experienced Premier League teams are well-versed in, and the evolution in Tony Pulis' side that has seen them bring in speedy, direct wingmen Matthew Etherington and Jermaine Pennant means the Potters can now execute these kind of breaks, as well as offering a significant threat from set-pieces, another area Blackpool have been found wanting in on occasion this season. Admittedly Betfred's 4/6 on the home win is shorter than the 11/10 this writer has priced them at, it's still worth your while taking advantage of it
• Sky's advent of Monday Night Football (well, it was actually the NFL that came up with it) was designed for matches like Man Utd v Arsenal, a crucial game for both sides- a win for either side would be a huge boost for their title chances, with the top 4 all playing one another in the coming weeks. Last season, this clash very much went to stereotype- Arsenal dominating early on with some majestic football but failing to capitalise, with their defensive frailties costing them late in the game. These traits are still very much a part of their game, meaning Sportingbet's 28/1 on half-time/full-time Arsenal/Man Utd should be considered
• Wanna have a guess at what price you'll get on Real Sociedad, 6th in La Liga, having won their last 2 (including the Basque derby conquering of Athletic Bilbao), to win away at Barcelona on Sunday? Victor Chandler will give you 33/1. Yep, that's right, 33/1. A quid on them nets you £34 if they beat Pep Guardiola's superteam. Tempted?
• Have a wee flutter on the mighty Staggies tomorrow. New manager Willie McStay takes Ross County to Partick Thistle tomorrow, with Blue Square offering 7/4 on County taking all 3 points

The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet

After a long time away, the midweek stupid bet returns
This week I'm focusing on the UEFA secondary competition, the Europa League

Metalist Kharkiv to beat Debrecen
Hajduk Split to beat AEK Athens
Getafe to beat Odense BK
PSV to beat Sampdoria
Young Boys to beat Stuttgart
Zenit St Petersburg to beat Anderlecht
Levski Sofia to beat AA Gent
Atletico Madrid to beat Aris
Juventus to beat Lech Poznan
Man City to beat Red Bull Salzburg
Bayer Leverkusen to beat Rosenborg
Sporting to beat Lille

Place £1 on that at William Hill and it's 5975/1

I'm off out to the bookies to secure 6 grand. Tata now

Weekend Betting, Saturday 27th November

Scottish Category 1 referess may be on strike this weekend, but this writer isn't, so here's a look at this weekend's somewhat truncated fixture list:

• Aston Villa v Arsenal looks interesting, with one team managed by a Frenchman featuring plenty of talented youngsters who like to play quick, counter-attacking football but have been prone to late defensive lapses in recent weeks against...erm...you get the picture. Arsenal have lost their last 2 and must also now do without Cesc Fabregas for a couple of weeks, however they do have alternatives for his position, with Samir Nasri or Tomas Rosicky likely to play in Fabregas' advanced central midfield position, meaning they still possess a potent goal threat for an Aston Villa defence that is not always the most mobile. Villa themselves possess considerable attacking threat, with Ashley Young and Barry Bannan in particular thriving under the management of Gerard Houllier, and more than capable of troubling an Arsena backline that has looked distinctly unsettled without Thomas Vermaelen. All this makes the generally available 10/11 on over 2.5 goals worth snapping up
• After their impressive start, West Brom's form has nosedived, with the Baggies now dowin in 16th place in the league. Everton, meanwhile, have recovered somewhat form their traditional awful start, and can be backed at a general 4/7 to beat Roberto di Matteo's side at Goodison Park
• Quick word of warning for anyone blindly sticking Celtic on their accumulator tomorrow. Their opponents, caley thistle, are unbeaten in the league away from home for 364 days. That's not the sort of stat you oppose lightly
• It's El Clasico on Monday night (yes, Monday night. It's unknown if anyone's actually pleased about this), with Barcelona v Real Madrid set to feature a dramatic contrast in playing styles and mentalities. Madrid will travel to the Camp Nou set on not losing the game and will most likely look to frustrate Barcelona, therefore it's worth backing them to manage this at least until half time, with 0-0 half-time available at 5/2 with Blue Square

"Wonder if Brewster likes Willie. Maybe he'd be convinced if Willie got Wood"

Shifty and Graeme's (and Danny and Rory's) Latest Big Blog Adventure

Saturday 6th November 2010, Falkirk v Ross County

12:10pm
Graeme, Danny and Rory arrive in Falkirk, at Falkirk Grahamston station, conveniently situated in the centre of the town, and within walking distance of the imaginatively-named Falkirk Stadium. Shifty, however, due to Scotrail engineering works, ends up at Falkirk High station, which is on the other side of town, and therefore has to make a 20-minute cross-town trek to meet up with his chums. Why does a town the size of Falkirk need 2 railway stations anyway?

12:30
The group meet up in the Behind the Wall pub, and the first round of pints are ordered. The group notice that the pub are running a bus to the game, and then back to the pub afterwards, for free for anyone buying drinks. After some deilberation, the group decide to take up this offer of a free lift to the game.

12:50
Danny suggests a game- 20 questions, with the subject matter being obscure SPL and EPL players from the mid-1990s onwards. Classic names such as Hicham Zerouali, Theo Snelders, Billy Dodds and Mickael Silvestre all come up. The group also reminisce about the time when Shifty remarked that a particularly depressed-looking Davie Weir, immediately after one of Rangers' Champions League shellackings, looked like "his wife just died". NB: This is of course untrue. Mrs Weir met her maker throwing herself infront of the king's horse in the derby

13:20
Another drinking game. Name the ground, and if you've been there, take a drink. As the group are all fairly well-travelled, this didn't last long.

13:40
The pub have the Bolton v Tottenham game on. With Bolton winning 3-0, Harry Redknapp's face looks even more hangdog than usual. During the 2nd half, the group all put £1 in a "corner kitty", and every time there is a corner in the match, the kitty moves to the next person. Graeme eventually claims the £4 jackpot

14:20
The bus arrives, and the group head off to the match. Shifty gets heckled for wearing his County top

14:40
The group arrive at the ground and make their way around to the away end, to join a travelling County support of about 200, among them an old boy in a rastafarian hat

15:00
The match kicks off, with Graeme having used his corner kitty jackpot to get the 50-50 tickets in

15:15
Some choice chants are forthcoming: "Referee, ya balloon!", followed by the excellent "Referee, you're about as much use as Anne Frank's drumkit" (Copyright Danny, 2010)

15:27
GOOOAALLL! 1-0 County, Andy Barrowman after some sexual work from Iain Vigurs. Jose Mourinho is said to be monitoring his progress

15:45
Half-time, County deservedly 1-0 up, and playing with some style and panache too. The half-time queue for pies as quite big, though, with only 2 folk serving. By the time the group get to the front, all the pies are gone, meaning Rory has to munch on a jumbo hotdog. This lack of pies leads to some frustration among the more senile members of the travelling support

16:00
The 2nd half kicks off as the group get their munch from the kiosk

16:30
County still leading 1-0 but having to absorb some pressure, although the Staggies do look threatening on the counter-attack. Graeme, while checking other scores on his phone, happens to notice that Celtic are running up a cricket score against Aberdeen

16:50
Peep-peep! Full time 1-0 County. A bully result. The group begin the walk back into town

17:20
The group pitch up in Sportsters, in the town centre, and pints are ordered. Shifty is told to remove his County top. What sort of sports bar doesn't allow its patrons to wear sports kit?
The group find a table next to a PC, and much laughs are had when they find that the most visited website on it is bebo

18:00
The group move on to another pub, the Scotia. Again, Shifty is asked to remove his County top, but the locals are more friendly here, and the group have another pint before heading off home.

20:00
The group arrive back at their own pads, and find that, after all attending County games, home and away, for many moons, they have been dismissed as a "notable fanny element" on the County forum. Happy days

Weekend Betting Preview, Saturday 6th November

Good evening, all. First things first, happy birthday Craig.



Now, down to business. The appearance of this entry on a Thursday has probably left you wondering that this writer is either a) super-organised or b) off out on the bevvy this weekend. It is the latter of those two options, and relates to the aforementioned birthday greeting. So, this weekend's tips, then (with it being a UEFA Cup Thursday, many games are on Sunday):

• In the Premier League (curiously, the more accurate moniker of Bundesliga and La Liga are Better League has yet to catch on), Manchester United should extend their current unbeaten run to 24 games by beating Wolves at Old Trafford on Saturday, despite "Irishman" Mick McCarthy's side's victory over citeh last weekend. Coral's 1/4 on a United win isn't going to make you a millionaire, though, so for a bit more value, have a look at a few other markets. United have been in good goalscoring form of late, and with Wolves shipping an average of just over 2 goals a game away from home, the general 6/10 available on over 2.5 goals should be snapped up. Another market favoured by this writer is the Anytime Goalscorer market- with Darren Fletcher and Anderson likely to miss out injured, and the possibility of Paul Scholes being rested with Wednesday's Manchester derby looming, there could be a starting place for Darron Gibson (SHOOT!) which makes bet365's 4/1 on him to score anytime appealing


• It's FA Cup 1st Round time! There are a number of "David v Goliath" clashes for you to blindly stick on an accumulator, and among them it's worh backing AFC Wimbledon (1/2), Carlisle (2/9), Port Vale (4/7), Hartlepool (4/11), Hereford (2/9) and Notts County (4/11). However, look a bit deeper and you can find a few potential shocks. One of those could take place at Highbury. No, Arsenal haven't decided to rebuild their old pad, but Fleetwood Town of the Conference host Walsall, who are currently bottom of League One, on a poor run of form and with just one league win away from home this season. Fleetwood Town, in decent form themselves, can be backed at a general 9/4 to beat The Saddlers


• As promised earlier, let's have a look at the Brazilian Grand Prix this weekend. The weather is likely to play a significant part in proceedings for Friday and Saturday at least, with a dry race currently forecast, although that could all yet change. If qualifying were to stay dry, then the general 16/1 available on local boy (and Interlagos specialist) Felipe Massa must be snapped up, even if only each-way. Elsewhere, on what is essentially a power circuit, the Mercedes engine is the donkey to have in the back of your motor, and after doing so in the last 2 races, Michael Schumacher could be set for another top 6 finish- Blue Square'll give you 3/1 on him doing just that. He's pretty handy in the wet, too

"I'm a pro athlete, I'm not trying to be the best at exercise"

Preview of Weekend Betting Preview

Ahoy, folks!

A quick line to say that I'll get a preview of this weekend's action up tonight, for tomorrow be featuring a classic game of Friday Football for this writer. I'll also hopefully squeeze in a quick bit about F1. On F1, looks to me judging by this article http://www.autosport.com/features/article.php/id/3151 that Autosport journo Mark Hughes has had his collar felt somewhat by Ferrari. Hughes is a well-respected F1 journalist from the north-east of England, and says his source is someone within the Ferrari team. Hmmm- I wonder if there's anyone in the Ferrari team who would have access to Felipe Massa's telemetry who's also from that part of the world?

Over and out


"What's this one called, Shrek?"