My Thoughts
Herbstmiester (autumn champions) Hoffenheim have fallen spectacularly, and yet somehow predictably, off the pace in the 2nd half of the Bundesliga season. Wolfsburg, on t'other hand, have gone from strength to strength after their visit from the big fella in the red with the white bearn, and now sit top of the Bundesliga with 5 games left, with a home record of 13 wins and 1 draw from 14 home league games, helped in no small part by the goalscoring form of Grafite. Wolfsburg's home form, as mentioned above, is about as close to perfection as can resonably be expected. Hoffenheim's away record, however, is not so: just 4 wins away from home all season, the last of those coming back in November at Koln.
The Verdict
Despite last weekend's blip in the form of a 2-0 loss away at struggling Energie Cottbus, Wolfsburg are still very much the team to beat in Germany right now. Hoffenheim now look exactly like the 200-1 title outsiders they were at the start of the season: a fearsome gallop at the start gave backers something to cheer, but they look totally unable to last the pace now. All of this points to a home win.
The Bet
Predictably, a small single backing Wolfsburg outright won't make you a millionaire, but should still represent decent value (best price 6/11 with expekt.com). Elsewhere, Wolfsburg have scored an average of 2.78 goals per game at home this season, with Hoffenheim averaging 2. It would therefore be worth considering over 3.5 goals, especially considering Hoffenheim's 3-2 win in the reverse fixture, currently trading around the 6/4 mark on Betfair.
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