So This Whole Newco Nonsense....

With a vote on July 4th to decide the identity of the SPL's "Club 12", let's have a look at the season-ticket situation. Many clubs are reporting (well, not reporting, but information is being leaked/extracted) that their season ticket sales are not merely falling but completely collapsing, due to the uncertainty regarding Club 12- some clubs are believed to have not yet shifted 200 season tickets when they would have expected to sell 10 times that number by this point in the summer. It's been well-documented why this is- supporters of all other SPL teams (and even a number of Rangers fans) do not want to see Newco Rangers allowed straight back in to the SPL, and many fans do not want to spend time and money backing a club that is complicit in their readmission to the league.

This got me thinking- how many season-ticket holders would a club need to lose to offset the additional ticket revenue brought in by the Rangers travelling support?

The answer is not many. I've collated the following pieces for each of the 10 SPL clubs who were there last season and will be there this season (newly-promoted Ross County didn't play Rangers last season and relegated Dunfermline won't play them this season. Their season ticket figures of approx 1250 so far are actually more positive than much of the SPL, helped by their clear No to Newco stance):

• The cost of a 2012/13 Adult season ticket (where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
• The cost of a 2011/12 Adult ticket for a match v Rangers (2012/13 individual match ticket prices are not available for most clubs at this time, and they're unlikely to fluctuate much anyway. Again, where more than 1 price bracket exists, I've taken the median value)
• The approximate number of tickets allocated to Rangers for these games in 2011/12

From these figures, by multiplying the number of tickets allocated to Rangers by the ticket price for these games, we can derive the total ticket revenue to the host club from the game. By then dividing this figure by the cost of a season ticket, we can establish an approximate figure of how many season ticket holders a club would need to lose to offset the additional revenue of the visit of Rangers. The full results are as follows:

Aberdeen- 430 season ticket holders
Celtic- 541
Dundee United- 384
Hearts- 296
Hibs- 294
Inverness CT- 149
Kilmarnock- 606
Motherwell- 417
St Johnstone- 366
St Mirren- 242

From these figures, the stance of many clubs suddenly becomes clear. It's now far easier to see why Kilmarnock chairman Michael Johnston is vocal in his support for allowing Newco Rangers back into the SPL-with their diminishing crowds and comparatively large stadium capacity, Johnston feels Kilmarnock need to sell 2 full stands to Rangers fans twice a season in order to survive, and that he'd struggle to sell over 600 additional season-tickets to compensate for their departure. For the remainder of clubs, though, it's clear that only a small number of their season-ticket holders need not renew for them to lose out. It should also be factored in that for 2012/13, if Club 12 are not Newco Rangers, then they will almost certainly be Dundee, who would take a comparable travelling support to Dundee United, St Johnstone and perhaps Aberdeen to that of Rangers. For those reasons alone, that should be 3 No to Newco votes wrapped up- with Hibs chairman Rod Petrie previously vocal about sporting integrity being the priority, we can assume that Hibs will also vote No- they also need to retain all the season ticket holders they can (especially after a poor season on the pitch), as they need only lose fewer than 300 to offset the Newco travelling fans. Even allowing for the likely Yes vote from Kilmarnock for the reasons already mentioned, that's already 4 likely No votes, and would Celtic really turn down an opportunity to relegate their oldest rivals from the top flight?

Another factor to be considered is that, with each passing day, it becomes more and more difficult for Newco Rangers to put together everything they'll need to be competitive next season should they be in the SPL- no players have signed as of yet (Newco Rangers are obliged to OFFER Oldco Rangers' players and staff a new contract, but they players and staff are not obliged to accept) and season-ticket holders must be wondering whether they should commit to paying SPL prices for their tickets which could yet be for 3rd Division football, or even for no football at all. And one can only wonder at how Ally McCoist (if he is to continue as manager) has been preparing- does he devise a pre-season programme based on the technique required for the SPL (not much admittedly) or for the more physical, bruising nature of the 3rd division? Can he build a strong squad of quality players for an assault on the SPL, or does he have to try and find 18-20 part-time players for the bottom tier? The longer he has to wait, the more likely someone else is going to come in for all those players. Do the other SPL clubs really want a team who may not be able to compete with them whilst in financial turmoil, a la Gretna?

Lastly, I'd recommend that, if you're a fan of an SPL team, you let them know your feelings. Teams need to listen to their fans more than ever in these challenging times for Scottish football

Edited on 19.6.2012 for updated figures, thanks @MitchellenMan

And Yet More Words On Euro 2012

One day in, let's now have a look at Group C of Euro 2012. After the barnstorming start I made (had Russia to win 4-1 at 50/1 and Dzagoev to score 2 or more goals at 35/1), I'll also furnish y'all with some tips for the next few games:

Group C: (Campeones, Corrupt Calcio, Cafe Table Cloths, Caffreys)

Reigning European and World champions Spain, despite being without the injured Puyol and Villa, are among the favourites. There's been much talk of fatigue amongst their players, particularly the Barcelona contingent, but this shouldn't be as much of a problem for them as it would be for other sides. Their possession-based game will see them typically with about 70% of possession each game, so opportunities will be there for the likes of Xavi, Alonso and Iniesta to take a "breather" during the games by simply retaining the ball amongst themselves, knowing that many opponents, Ireland in particular, will likely afford them much time and space in the middle of the park and play with 9 or 10 players within 30 metres of their own goal. By the time they reach the latter stages, though, fatigue may catch up with them, especially if confronted by a rapid-pressing, energetic, powerful Germany side. Behind them, Italy look rather shambolic. Another match-fixing scandal is rife in their domestic game, costing them the services of left-back Domenico Criscito, and their main attacking options are Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano- can either of them really be relied upon at this level? Croatia, still playing in those red and white cafe table cloths, must fancy their chances of finishing ahead of Italy- they are tactically versatile, with coach Slaven Bilic having an impressive array of attacking options available, even without the inured workhorse Ivica Olic- Luka Modric will pull the strings in the centre of midfield, with Darijo Srna motoring up and down the right flank. The left-midfield and central-attacking midfield positions will be filled by 2 from Niko Kranjcar, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, with the impressive Nikica Jelavic either on his own upfront, or possibly partnered by Mario Mandzukic or Eduardo should Bilic opt for a front 2 ahead of a flatter midfield. Don't expect much from Ireland either aesthetically or in terms of results- the current squad is very much Caffreys (poor imitation) compared to the Guinness (real deal) of their 1994 and 2002 vintages. Giovanni Trappatoni's side have an extremely basic tactical framework- 4-4-2 with centre-backs at full-back, 2 holders in the centre of midfield, 2 wingers and a target man-little man strike partnership. While they could frustrate all 3 group opponents, they are unlikely to be able to create enough to threaten qualification

Now for some tips. Some good, some more adventurous:
Holland to beat Denmark at 8/11 general
Holland v Denmark under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Betfred

Germany and Portugal to draw at 23/10 general
Half time/ full time Portugal/Draw at 16/1 with Skybet
Cristiano Ronaldo 1st scorer at 11/2 general
Germany and Portugal to draw 3-3 at 80/1 with Bodog

Spain v Italy under 2.5 goals at 8/13 with Skybet
Ireland v Croatia under 2.5 goals at 1/2 general

Some More Words on Euro 2012

2 days to go until the start of Euro 2012. Office sweepstake done? Check. Polish colleagues getting hyper-excited? Check. Smart gamblers with outright bets placed months ago? Check (for the record, yours truly has the following: Germany outright winners @ 10/3, Klose top scorer @ 14/1, Russia each/way @18/1, Lewandowski top scorer @ 50/1. Some of those prices, Lewy for the Golden Boot in particular, are long gone). Less organised punters still floundering around for semi-decent prices? Check. Fantasy football leagues setup? Check

Instead of doing a straight rundown of Groups C and D, I thought I'd offer some more general musings on what to expect at Euro 2012, as well as a few tips for the floundering punters.

In the last few days, many people have been getting excited about France- they're now as short as 9/1 to win the tournament with many bookmakers, while centre-forward Karim Benzema is now as short as 12/1 for top scorer- both outcomes were available at much longer prices only a few weeks ago. Most of this interest has come about due to their impressive warm-up results, however one must note that the quality of opponents they have faced recently has been lacking- Iceland took a 2 goal lead against them before going down 3-2, Serbia are in transition under new boss Sinisa Mihajlovic and Estonia offered very little against Les Bleus after the first 10 minutes. They should comfortably qualify from Group D, and should come through a likely quarter-final against Croatia or an utter shambles of an Italy side, but their central defensive frailties, where 1st choice pairing Philippe Mexes and Adil Rami have both endured difficult seasons at club level, are likely to be exposed by the time they reach the semi-finals. There are also question marks over who will be protecting the back 4, with injury concerns over DMs Yann M'Vila, Blaise Matuidi and Alou Diarra. World Cup 2014 could be their time, though.

As for Benzema, he's a more realistic shout of claiming outright glory. Again, it's his form in the aforementioned warm-up games that has got everyone interested, as well as the defensive travails of all of their Group D opponents- he's also got plenty of creativity behind him, as well as a potential target man to play off if Laurent Blanc decides to throw Olivier Giroud on alongside him. That 12/1 is just about worth a few quid- kudos to you if you got him when he was still in the 20s

I'll do the other 2 groups within the next few days, i.e. before any actual matches are played

Some Words About Euro 2012

Euro 2012 begins on Friday (Poland v Greece, kick off 5pm, so you shouldn't have to sneak away from work too early), so I suppose I'd better share some musings about the upcoming soccerfest

Group A (Arshavin, Austerity, Ambition, Ach Who Cares?)
Arguably the weakest of the groups contains 4 fairly evenly-matched teams, all of whom will harbour realistic expectations of progression to the knockout stages. Russia are the strongest of the 4, and should top the group. They have a genuinely top class keeper in the fit-again Igor Akinfeev to compensate for a less-than world class defence, while a tough, workmanlike midfield will provide an attacking platform for 1 exciting young playmaker (Alan Dzagoev) and 1 older, less exciting playmaker (Andrei Arshavin) to create openings for the lone frontman, who will be 1 from Alexandr Kerzhakov, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. Co-hosts Poland should join them in the knockout stages- centre-forward Robert Lewandowski has established himself as one of Europe's best srikers and is well-fancied by many to be the tournament's top scorer, his price having moved from 40/1 to 20/1 in the last few weeks. Lewandowski's Borussia Dortmund club mates, Jakub Blaszczykowski and Lukasz Piczczek will line up down the right flank of a fairly standard 4-2-3-1 formation in which the 2 DMs, likely to be Dariusz Dudka and Rafal Murawski, will hold and do little else. Arsenal's Wojciech Szczesny will be in goals. Regarding the other 2 teams in the group, the Czech Republic's golden generation have now moved on, while their impressive Under 21 crop from last summer are not yet ready to step up, while Greece offer very little aside from dogged tenacity in defence and the hope of a set-piece at the other end- it's unlikely to be enough to see them past a slick, determined Russia and a decent Polish side on home soil

Group B (Bundesliga, Bacon, Bento, Boiler Suits)
Ah, the old "group of death". Germany go into the tournament as 2nd favourites behind Spain, with all the old Teutonic efficiency of old, but these days with a sparkling, powerful attacking game with young uberstars like Mario Gotze, Mesut Ozil, Toni Kroos and the World Cup Golden Boot winner Thomas Muller. 2 of these 4 will likely make up the 3 man attacking midfield (Lukas Podolski, a Nationalmannschaft veteran at the age of 27, should take the left-sided forward role) support to the lone frontman, the ageless Miroslav Klose. Concerns remain about the defence (not only is the awful Benedikt Howedes in the squad, he may actually play) but they were imperious in qualifying (10 wins from 10) and are capable of making it through this group with relative ease. Very strong chance of going all the way. Behind them, all 3 teams could conceivably go through. The bacon-munching Danes go into the tournament in good form- the loss of goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen was a blow but not an insurmountable one- Man Utd's Anders Lindegaard is an able deputy, while their key attacking threats are all fit and raring to go. Coach Morten Olsen is a wily old fox who will know how to extract the maximum from his side. Holland's fans will flock to the tournament to a man dressed in bright orange boiler suits with a potent attack but question marks over the playing style and the defence- Arjen Robben's propensity to screw up in crucial games is also not to be discounted. Portugal, under Paulo Bento, are basically Cristiano Ronaldo + a useless rabble of 10 others, which admittedly means they've still got a chance

Groups C and D will follow soooooon