Jack's World Cup Squad

In an ambitious venture, Shifty's Last Word is delighted to announce that it is to become chief sponsor of Vanderreal FC- more details to follow.

Vanderreal FC's centre forward Jack has sent in his England World Cup Squad, which makes for interesting reading, notably a change in goalkeepers, plus an additional cente-forward (Jack had sent me his squad on Wednesday morning, before Wayne Bridge pulled out. He was included, with Baines as Ashley Cole's replacement)

Hart, Green, Robinson
Ferdinand, Terry, Upson, Lescott, Ashley Cole, Leighton Baines, Johnson, Brown
Gerrard, Lampard, Barry, Ashley Young, Beckham, Milner, Lennon
Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Heskey, Agbonlahor

Stoke City v Arsenal, Saturday 27t February

My Thoughts

A notable clash in playing styles is set to take place on Saturday: Arsenal's array of continental short-arse stars will arrive at the Britannia intent on weaving their way through Stoke with endless precise, quick passing, with besuited Economics graduate Arsene Wenger masterminding it all from the touchline. Stoke, meanwhile, will look to outmuscle Arsenal, with a side packed full of 6 foot-odd homegrown musclemen (plus the brilliant Turkish international Tuncay), generally getting stuck in, going for the long-ball and shouting BULLY!. Leading them from the touchline will be the tracksuited, baseball-cap-wearing Tony Pulis. He's from Wales.

The Verdict
One of these teams is unbeaten in 2010, and saw off Manchester City in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron in midweek, as well as their opponents in this one 3-1 the last time they met. Yep, Stoke. 11 unbeaten, they gave an admittedly under-strength Arsenal side one hell of a bloody nose in their FA Cup meeting last month. They are extremely strong at home (6-4-3) for a side in mid-table and with only Manchester United having won with any sort of conviction at the Britannia this season (in fact, ever), Wenger's side will know that they're in for quite an evening. Arsenal's previous 2 trips to the Britannia have both ended not only in defeat, but a convincing outmuscling from Tony Pulis's men, and given Stoke's current form (plus Arsenal's less-than-convincing current form), it would be no surprise if Stoke got at least 1, if not 3, points from this one.

The Bet
On Wednesday evening, this writer placed a considerable sum of money on Stoke to win at a price of 4/1 with William Hill. After their victory over Manchester City, there's no way you''l get 4/1 on Saturday morning (continuing my experiment of pricing games myself, I actually had Stoke at 17/10, with Arsenal 13/8), so if you're looking to get on Stoke outright, get on it quickly. A safer bet would be Stoke 1X, which considering Stoke's home record of 6-3-4 exactly matches Arsenal's away record, should be seriously considered. The best bet to be on, though, is probably Half Time Draw, a bet that would have come in for Stoke on Wednesday night, and also in Arsenal's Champions Leage tie away at Porto last week.

Darren Cooperello's World Cup Squad

Top centre-forward Darren has picked his England squad. Here it is:

James, Hart, Green
Ferdinand, Terry, Johnson, Ashley Cole (Baines), Upson, Brown, Bridge, Lescott
Gerrard, Lampard, Barry, Joe Cole, Lennon, Wright-Phillips, Beckham, Milner
Rooney, Crouch, Defoe, Agbonlahor

Shifty's England World Cup Squad Selection

Featuring 4 Man Utd players, only 2 of Aston Villa's English contingent (if it weren't for his collection of Ireland caps, surely Richard Dunne would be Ferdinand's central defensive partner), 2 goalkeepers (and 1 centre back) whose teams currently sit in the bottom 5 and one extremely speculative punt

Hart, Green, James
Ferdinand, Johnson, Terry, Brown, Ashley Cole (Leighton Baines), Bridge, Upson, Andy Wilkinson
Gerrard, Milner, Lampard, Carrick, Barry, Lennon, Joe Cole, Beckham
Rooney, Heskey, Defoe, Crouch

Pud and Rory's Squad Selection

As the title says;

Hart, Green, James
Terry, Ashley Cole (Warnock), Ferdinand, Johnson, Upson, Lescott, Brown, Bridge
Lampard, Gerrard, Milner, Beckham, Lennon, Barry, Joe Cole, Downing
Rooney, Heskey, Defoe, Crouch




Shifty's squad, along with others, to follow

Everton v Manchester United, Saturday 20th February

My Thoughts

In a rare break from tradition, this writer is again writing up his own team in their lunchtime trip to Goodison Park. It's a fixure in which they have a great record, with Everton only winning once in the last 15 meetings between the sides. Both sides go into this game in good form- United are, as they have done so often in the past, pushing on in the second half of the season, while Everton have recovered from a dreadful start to the season, and have only lost to their Merseyside rivals in the league since November.

The Verdict
United's past record against Everton simply cannot be ignored, nor can the form of Wayne Rooney, but Everton themselves cannot be discounted, especially after their 2-1 victory over Chelsea recently. Although United's track record in this fixture is excellent, there's never much between the two sides at Goodison (only once since 1998 has United's winning margin been more than 1 goal), and another close match seems likely on Saturday.

The Bet
Manchester United to win outright are available at 5/6 with Blue Square, which is maybe just a tiny bit short. Consequentially, Manchester United 2X (which looks the safest bet in the outright result markets) will also be rather short, and unlikely to be much better that 2/9. One also must surely consider Wayne Rooney on the anytime scorer market- he's in the form of his life, and if Sir Alex Ferguson is considering resting him, then he'll surely wait for Tuesday's game at home to West Ham or next Sunday's Carling Cup Final- at 11/8 with Boylesports.

England Squad Selector: Graeme's Selection

In a pleasantly surprising display of forward planning, Graeme has submitted his selection for the blog's England Squad Selector competition. Here it is:

James, Hart, Green
Terry, Ferdinand, Upson, Ashley Cole (to be replaced by Baines if he doesn't make it), Bridge, Johnson, Lescott, Brown
Gerrard, Lampard, Carrick, Joe Cole, Milner, Downing, Barry, Ashley Young
Rooney, Carlton Cole, Heskey, Agbonlahor

Hmm...So Graeme Capello leaves out Beckham and Defoe. The rest of you, get your selection to me for Friday, and then we'll open up the piggy bank and see if we can afford a prize

Well-Organised Graeme's Silly Bet

Weekend Betting:

Arsenal to draw with Sunderland
Chelsea to beat Wolves
West Ham to beat Hull
Derby to beat Swansea
Celtic to beat Dundee United
Inverness to beat Queen of the South
Stirling to beat Brechin

Odds: 154/1 with William Hill

Shifty's Last Word World Cup Squad Competition

SPECIAL FEATURE!

In the run up to the 2010 World Cup, we will be running a number of special features on the blog, the first of which Shifty is pleased to announce today:

ENGLAND SQUAD SELECTOR

Inspired by an off-the-cuff comment from Graeme (of Graeme's Silly Bet fame), the idea is that everyone submits the 23 players they think will make up the England (we'll consider doing a few other nations, based on how well this goes) squad in South Africa, and there'll be a prize* for whoever gets closest to Fabio Capello's actual 23 man squad. To enter, just drop Shifty an email at vanderdalgarno@hotmail.co.uk this Friday (it's the fairest way to do it by having everyone submit their squad on the same day) with your selection







*There may not be a prize

Weekend Betting, Saturday 13th February

Here's some tips for the weekend's football fixtures, liiiike:

• No Premier League games this weekend, and there's not a huge amount tempting me in the FA Cup Sponsored By Enron, so off to the Championship we go. Leicester are going well at the moment- they look like a decent side, and on current form should be among the play-off contenders at the end of the season- and should see off Scunthorpe, who are pretty abysmal away from home. 3/4 with Blue Square looks like a very good price, especially considering this pundit had them at 2/5 (more about that later)
• Staying in the Championship, and remaining on the subject of teams who are abysmal away from home, Peterborough have the worst away record in the division, and travel to Gordon Strachan's improving Middlesbrough/Celtic collaboration. The Boro/Hoops are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred to see off Jim Gannon's men
• Speaking of Peterborough, they will be hoping to avoid jumping down to League One, something this blog is going to do now. Stockport's form has been dreadful, although they have improved in recent weeks, and will surely trip someone up sooner rather than later. However, don't expect it to be Aidy Boothroyd's Colchester side, who are available at a best price of 4/5 with Coral
• Into the SPL, one could make a case for all 5 away teams winning. Of the 5, the best value bet looks like Motherwell to win away at Hamilton. These two met just last week, with Motherwell emerging as 1-0 winners, and following their excellent performance in their midweek 1-1 draw with Rangers, they will be confident of inflicting further damage on a Hamilton side beginning to really suffer from that old cliche, Second Season Syndrome. Motherwell can be backed at a best price of 6/4 with Skybet

And now for me to tell y'all what I was on about earlier on. Basically, I've started pricing matches myself. On the Tuesday before the weekend, I'll nab me a fixtures list (usually from the BBC website) and before the bookies have their prices on, I'll go through and estimate what the prices should be, while also noting down the teams I fancy betting on. Then, when I make my weekly trip to the bookies (actually scratch that. One of my trips to the bookies) I'll compare their prices with my own, and if their price on a game I fancy is better than mine, then I'll take that bet.

The system isn't perfect yet, I'll no doubt have to refine it for such aspects as building a small profit margin, but I'd recommend trying it, and keep y'all posted on how my system works

Shifty

Graeme's Silly Bet for Saturday 13th February

Just a quick one tonight as I am stuck up at the university trying to write my dissertation

However, upon leaving this morning I managed to place myself a cheeky little number for Saturday. Surprised at how good the return will be if it comes up as well

Here goes:

Chelsea to beat Cardiff
Newcastle to beat Swansea
Celtic to beat an understrength Aberdeen
Dundee to beat Ayr
Partick to beat Airdrie
Stirling to bounce back away to Dumbarton
Queens Park to beat Montrose

£5 pays out £287.12

Here is hoping..

Weekend Betting, Saturday 6th February

Plenty of interesting matches on this weekend for punters to get stuck into. Here's a few tips:

• Hull and man citeh to draw. An away banker this is not. Hull were excellent in their 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea in midweek, and have shown signs of life in recent weeks. With Amr Zaki set to become another option in attack for the Tigers, and teams above them in freefall. Phil Brown's side still have a chance of staying up. citeh are not in top form at the moment- they somewhat laboured to a 2-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend, and their away record of 3-5-3 is patchy. The draw is available at a best price of 11/4 with Ladbrokes
• Bolton to beat Fulham. Under Owen Coyle, while the results haven't yet come (and that's really more due to a tough run of fixtures), there has been a marked improvement in Bolton's recent performances. Fulham, however, had lost their last 5 leage games before their midweek 1-0 win over Portsmouth, and are still dismal away from home. With Andy Johnson out injured for the season, Clint Dempsey also injured, Diomansy Kamara away on loan to Celtic and new signing Stefano Okaka still finding his feet in English football, it's difficult to see where the support for Bobby Zamora upfront is going to come from. Bolton look good value at 6/5 with Paddy Power. As a side bet, in addition to Fulham's aforementioned striking problems, Bolton have tightened up defensively under Coyle, so under 2.5 goals is worth a punt at 8/11 with Stan James
• Let's be honest, the question today at Old Trafford will not be "Will Wayne Rooney score?". The question will be "How many will Wayne Rooney score?". Some bookies go as long as 28/1 on Portsmouth winning, and it's difficult to see even an inspired David James behind a flat back 10 keeping out the on-song Rooney, who can be backed to score 2 or more goals in the game at a ridiculously short best price of 3/1 with William Hill (folks, that really is the BEST price I could find- some firms go as short as 6/4 on this bet). Therefore, a random punt at first goalscorer could be worth a shout at Old Trafford today- Nani is finally starting to produce, and is available at a best price of 7/1 with Ladbrokes
• To the Active Nation Scottish Cup! Some interesting ties this weekend. Montrose have improved in recent weeks, but Hibs should still have far too much for them, so take Hibs on the -1 handicap at a best price of 1/3 with Coral. Elsewhere, St Johnstone and Dundee United recently served up a 3-3 ding-dong in the SPL- these two evenly matched sides could serve up another draw at McDiarmid Park today, with the draw available at a best price of 12/5 with William Hill

Graeme's Silly Bet, Saturday 6th February

We are into February, getting near the business end of the season, and the 6 nations are back. Result.
Scotland are 20/1 to win the Six Nations this year. Don't do what my brother did and put a fiver on it. Idiot.
A more realistic punt this weekend, I believe, is an England/Scotland double. Cheeky fiver on that.
Moing on to the Active Nation Scottish Cup, a large accumulator is necessary.
Dundee to beat Ayr
Hibs to beat Montrose
Aberdeen to beat Raith
Inverness CT to draw with Kilmarnock
St Mirren to beat Rangers
Ross County to beat Stirling Albion (an interesting side battle in this game will be whether or not Shifty takes revenge on the Albion fan who's been slagging him off on OverTheBridge)

In the Premiership,
Bolton to beat Fulham
Man City to beat Hull
Man Utd to beat Portsmouth
Arsenal to beat Chelsea

Quick mention on an upcoming feature on here:

Shifty, Graeme, and a selection of guest pundits will be predicting the 23 players they think will be in the England World Cup Squad. Watch this space, because unlike the other much-hyped new features Shifty's always going on about, this one is actually going to happen quite soon

Liverpool v Everton, Saturday 6th February

My Thoughts

Both sides go into this Merseyside derby in decent form- Liverpool unbeaten in 6 league games (not including their shambolic FA Cup exit against Reading), while Everton are unbeaten since the reverse fixture in November. However, it would be unwise to read too much into that stat- while Everton have generally looked impressive (most notably in their 2-2 draw at Arsenal, a match which even Arsene Wenger admitted they deserved the win, and in their 2-0 swatting aside of man citeh), Liverpool are still not playing with the sort of fluency and penetration that they are capable of, as away draws at Stoke and Wolves proved.

The Verdict
Betting on Liverpool this season has been something one would do only if one was mentally incapacitated, as they lurch from one dismal performance to another. While their home record this season (8-2-2, winning their last 4 in the league) is reasonably good, those two defeats came against Arsenal and Aston Villa, and on current form one could argue that Everton are of the same calibre of these two sides. While their league record at anfailed is poor (their last win there was in the 1999/2000 season) they did have the upper hand in derbies last season, drawing 1-1 twice away from home, and with new signing Landon Donovan making an instant impression, they can extend their unbeaten run against a Liverpool side still without Fernando Torres.

The Bet
I'm at work, so odds will follow tonight. Back Everton outright if you're feeling brave, otherwise I'd recommend Everton 2X. For Liverpool, Steven Gerrard will surely be relied upon to carry the team. He's gone a while without a goal, but will surely want to impress if there's a sniff of the England captaincy being available again- with Alberto Aquilani starting to take the creative pressure off him, he could be considered on the anytime scorer market

Rangers v St Johnstone, Wednesday 3rd February

My Thoughts

A rare venture into midweek territory for the blog here, for this Co-Op Cup Semi-Final tie at Hampden. Both these sides have been going well in the SPL recently; Rangers have opened up a 10 point gap at the top, while only Celtic have defeated St Johnstone in their last 6 games. Hampden Park shouldn't intimidate St Johnstone- they have made it to the national stadium for semi-finals in both cup competitions on numerous occasions throughout the last few years, and were certainly not outclassed in 2-1 and 3-0 defeats against Rangers this season.

The Verdict
Rangers have generally been doing enough in recent weeks to get results without playing particularly brilliantly, coping with the absence of key players reasonably well. After a slightly shaky start, St Johnstone are now finding their feet in the SPL, and should have more than enough in the tank to avoid relegation. As mentioned, St Johnstone have a good cup record in recent years, and it's certainly not beyond them to take a slightly misfiring Rangers side to extra-time, as they did in 2008 in the Scottish Cup Semi Final, a match remembered for Martin Hardie (himself now ironically facing a lengthy absence through injury) destroying Steven Naismith and Kevin Thomson with bone-crunching tackles.

The Bet
If you fancy the Saints to take Rangers to extra-time, then the draw can be backed at a best price of 9/2 with Bwin. Other than that, semi-finals tend to be notoriously low-scoring, cagey affairs, and a quick look through the Co-Op Cup archives confirms this, and Rangers without Kris Boyd seem devoid of firepower. With that in mind, consider taking under 2.5 goals at a best price of 5/4 with William Hill.