Monday 29 June 2009

Well....

'Tis difficult to preview matches right now when there aren't any of any significance being played (last night's Confed Cup Final notwithstanding- my laptop broke, hence the lack of an in-depth preview), so right now, this writer is working hard (hahahaha) trying to find good bets for next season. I've already posted a few (Wolves to go down, Ipswich to win the Championship, Real to win La Liga or Pellegrino to be sacked- one is bound to happen), so here are another couple (more will follow over the next few weeks):

Premier League Bottom Half Market
Only William Hill have got odds upon this market so far, but there could still be value in a few teams. The likes of Burnley, Wolves and Birmingham will be expected to struggle (a good season for all 3 would constitute finishing 17th), while Hull and Stoke will be expected to suffer Second Season Syndrome, a condition that either side could greatly enhance by completing the rumoured signing of Michael Owen. As such, none of these sides are available at particularly tempting prices (Stoke are best priced at 1/9). However, some value could be had in Fulham (4/9), whose squad looks set to be stretched by Europa League football in much the same manner as Portsmouth's last season, and, like Portsmouth did last season, Fulham lack the funds to significantly strengthen. Should influential Norwegian centre-back Brede Hangeland depart, expect that price to shorten further. Another side who could find themselves 11th or lower are Tottenham (8/1). Harry Redknapp is set to sell approximately 937 members of his current squad, some with a proven track record in the Premier League, and will no doubt look to sign a plethora of players. Redknapp's transfer record is decidedly patchy, so should any of his signings (he has already been told he will have to sell before he buys, so the squad may well lack depth, and he hasn't had a decent young player come through in any of his sides since his West Ham days) turn out to be turkeys, expect to see the side fall, and 8/1 look ever more tempting.

Premier League Worst Disciplinary Record Market
This is one table that we can fairly safely rule out the big 4 from dominating. Last season, this was a market dominated by 3 sides, fairly predictably: Stoke (their physical, intimidating style saw them "top" the table, with 74 yellow cards and 5 red cards, although had Arsene Wenger been refereeing their games, at least 2 zeros would have to be added to those totals), Newcastle (so awful were they, defenders simply had to try and stop opposition forwards by any means necessary- many of their 8 red cards were simply desperate defenders hauling dowm opposition forwards who were clean through) and Blackburn (Sam Allardyce is now their manager. I don't think I need to say any more). Rovers in particular have added hard-as-nails French (I know that's a bit of an oxymoron) defender Gael Givet, and Stoke look set to persist with their somewhat primitive style, so expect those two to dominate again. At the moment, only Sky Bet have prices up, but those prices are appealing, with Stoke at 7/2 and Blackburn 9/2.

PS: I hope y'all backed Real Madrid when I first posted them for the Champions League at 10/1. They're now at a general 6/1

Tuesday 16 June 2009

Spain v Iraq, Wednesday 7th June

My Thoughts

Going into the tournament, there was little doubt that, if they were anywhere near top form, Spain would win this group. Any lingering doubt was banished after 17 minutes of their opening game against New Zealand. Despite the 5-0 scoreline, New Zealand will still fancy their chances of making the semi finals, having seen a poor South Africa and a slightly worse Iraq grind out an eye-watering 0-0 draw in the tournament's opening game. Iraq were rather cautious in that one, and this writer expects them to be even more so against arguably the best international side on the planet. Against New Zealand, Spain were scintillating early on, running up 4 goals in no time, before easing off, although they could have easily scored more, and would probably have done so had the standside linesman actually been watching the game.

The Verdict
If there was one glimmer of hope for New Zealand in their game against Spain, it was that they at least bothered the Spanish back line occasionally, particularly from set pieces. However, don't expect Iraq to press the ball high up the park- their coach, the veteran Bora Milutinovic (got it in one) probaly only has to decide whether to park 10 or 11 men behind the ball. But expect players of the quality of Xavi, Villa, Torres and Fabregas to be able to move the ball quickly, fluently, and record a comfortable victory. Spain to win.

The Bet
Who says one can only bet on the football from August to May? At 1/14, there's little point backing Spain. Therefore, it's best to have a look at other markets. 3-0 Spain at 11/2 with Victor Chandler is worth considering. Under normal circumstances, it's difficult to see David Villa and Fernando Torres not scoring- both are available at 8/13 with William Hill

Wednesday 10 June 2009

Another early tip for 2009/2010

Well, this writer is spending much of his time swotting up on the Brazilian league to keep y'all going over the summer. In the meantime, here's another early tip for 2009/2010:

Ipswich to win the English Championship @ 10/1 (general). Yes, this is the Roy Keane effect, but once again Keane, as he was at Sunderland, is backed by plenty of dosh and ambition. This writer expects him to deliver. Keane himself will be a big sell, and will surely attract some quality players to Portman Road (don't be surprised to see him raid Manchester United's Reserves again). Back the Tractor Boys now- they won't be 10/1 if the anticipated fire sales at the relegated sides (the only sides currently with shorter odds) take place

Friday 5 June 2009

And here are some more

Another couple of early tips for 2009/2010:

Real Madrid to win the Champions League @ 12/1 with Boylesports- with Manuel Pellegrini now in charge of affairs on the field, and Florentino Perez set to return off it (and all the Galacticos that he is likely to bring), Real surely won't be as bad as they were this season, and will surely challenge once again on the biggest stage. Blue Square also offer 7/4 on them winning La Liga. Odds are not available yet, but when they are it would be well worth covering either of these bets with a bet on Pellegrini to be sacked before May 2010- the demands of Real Madrid and Perez will no doubt be sufficiently high to demand success at all costs

Tuesday 2 June 2009

It's only June 2nd...

...But here's my first tip for 2009/2010:

Wolves to be relegated @ 11/8 with William Hill

This writer feels that this is a great price. Mick McCarthy is unlikely to have significant funds to strengthen a side that is largely made up of players unproven in the top flight. Their style of play in the Championship has been a straightforward 4-4-2 with two wingers who like to attack, which can leave their defence, with the inexperienced Wayne Hennessey in goals, somewhat exposed- despite winning the league, Wolves only had the 7th best defensive record in the Championship. Being knocked out of the FA Cup at home to an under-strength Middlesbrough side is also not a good omen.