My Thoughts
Two teams currently experiencing differing runs of form. Mallorca have lost just 1 of their last 12 games, and are unbeaten at home since January, a run of form that has seen them move up to 9th in La Liga, although they are probably a bit too far away to challenge for a Europa League place. Getafe, on the other hand, are in freefall: 2 wins since February have seen them slip to 17th in La Liga, just 1 point above the relegation zone, which has led to the departure of coach Victor Munoz, who has been replaced by former Spain international Michel (scorer of a hat-trick at Italia 90 against South Korea). Games between these 2 sides tend to be high-scoring- their last 7 league meetings (which have resulted in 4 Mallorca wins, 2 Getafe wins and 1 draw) have produced 27 goals, an average of 3.85 per game. With Mallorca having scored in every league game since February, and Getafe having kept clean sheets in only 12% of their games this season, this game could also produce goals.
The Verdict
Given their recent records, this game has home win written all over it. The only cause for concern would be the "new manager" effect Michel may have on Getafe, although given his not-so-stellar previous record in management (sacked after 1 season with both Rayo Vallecano and Castilla), question marks may well be raised about his capabilities to arrest Getafe's slide. Home win
The Bet
Mallorca are available outright at a very respectable 15/13 with expekt.com. Alternatively, over 2.5 goals with bet365.com should be considered
Thursday 30 April 2009
Wednesday 29 April 2009
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim, Saturday 2nd May
My Thoughts
Herbstmiester (autumn champions) Hoffenheim have fallen spectacularly, and yet somehow predictably, off the pace in the 2nd half of the Bundesliga season. Wolfsburg, on t'other hand, have gone from strength to strength after their visit from the big fella in the red with the white bearn, and now sit top of the Bundesliga with 5 games left, with a home record of 13 wins and 1 draw from 14 home league games, helped in no small part by the goalscoring form of Grafite. Wolfsburg's home form, as mentioned above, is about as close to perfection as can resonably be expected. Hoffenheim's away record, however, is not so: just 4 wins away from home all season, the last of those coming back in November at Koln.
The Verdict
Despite last weekend's blip in the form of a 2-0 loss away at struggling Energie Cottbus, Wolfsburg are still very much the team to beat in Germany right now. Hoffenheim now look exactly like the 200-1 title outsiders they were at the start of the season: a fearsome gallop at the start gave backers something to cheer, but they look totally unable to last the pace now. All of this points to a home win.
The Bet
Predictably, a small single backing Wolfsburg outright won't make you a millionaire, but should still represent decent value (best price 6/11 with expekt.com). Elsewhere, Wolfsburg have scored an average of 2.78 goals per game at home this season, with Hoffenheim averaging 2. It would therefore be worth considering over 3.5 goals, especially considering Hoffenheim's 3-2 win in the reverse fixture, currently trading around the 6/4 mark on Betfair.
Herbstmiester (autumn champions) Hoffenheim have fallen spectacularly, and yet somehow predictably, off the pace in the 2nd half of the Bundesliga season. Wolfsburg, on t'other hand, have gone from strength to strength after their visit from the big fella in the red with the white bearn, and now sit top of the Bundesliga with 5 games left, with a home record of 13 wins and 1 draw from 14 home league games, helped in no small part by the goalscoring form of Grafite. Wolfsburg's home form, as mentioned above, is about as close to perfection as can resonably be expected. Hoffenheim's away record, however, is not so: just 4 wins away from home all season, the last of those coming back in November at Koln.
The Verdict
Despite last weekend's blip in the form of a 2-0 loss away at struggling Energie Cottbus, Wolfsburg are still very much the team to beat in Germany right now. Hoffenheim now look exactly like the 200-1 title outsiders they were at the start of the season: a fearsome gallop at the start gave backers something to cheer, but they look totally unable to last the pace now. All of this points to a home win.
The Bet
Predictably, a small single backing Wolfsburg outright won't make you a millionaire, but should still represent decent value (best price 6/11 with expekt.com). Elsewhere, Wolfsburg have scored an average of 2.78 goals per game at home this season, with Hoffenheim averaging 2. It would therefore be worth considering over 3.5 goals, especially considering Hoffenheim's 3-2 win in the reverse fixture, currently trading around the 6/4 mark on Betfair.
Sunday 26 April 2009
And that was the weekend
Thought I'd add a little feature to the blog. I figured that seeing as I recommend all these bets, I might as well start a running total to see if following all the tips would prove to be profitable.
Quick couple of bits of housekeeping to clear up. I'll be taking a running total of ALL the bets for a given weekend I recommend (i.e. those where I have quoted the odds. Those will be the odds used). I'll also be keeping the stake constant at 1 unit. Here goes:
Wolfsburg to beat Cottbus @ 4/6 - 1 unit returns 0
Fulham to beat Stoke @ 4/5 - 1 unit returns 1.8
Mark Schwarzer to keep a clean sheet @ 6/5 - 1 unit returns 2.2
Felipe Massa to win (each way) @ 33/1 - 1 unit returns 0
Everton v Manchester City draw @ 5/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Robinho to score anytime @ 11/4 - 1 unit returns 3.75
Real Madrid to beat Sevilla @ 9/5 - 1 unit returns 2.8
Over 3.5 goals @ 2/1 - 1 unit returns 3
Over 4.5 goals @ 9/2 - 1 unit returns 5.5
Hat-trick being scored @ 24/5 - 1 unit returns 5.8
Gonzalo Higuain to score the last goal @ 6/1 - 1 unit returns 0
Birmingham to beat Preston @ 5/6 - 1 unit returns 0
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - 1 unit returns 0
Total outlay: 13 units
Total return: 24.85 units
Profit: 11.85 units
Return/outlay: 191%
Quick couple of bits of housekeeping to clear up. I'll be taking a running total of ALL the bets for a given weekend I recommend (i.e. those where I have quoted the odds. Those will be the odds used). I'll also be keeping the stake constant at 1 unit. Here goes:
Wolfsburg to beat Cottbus @ 4/6 - 1 unit returns 0
Fulham to beat Stoke @ 4/5 - 1 unit returns 1.8
Mark Schwarzer to keep a clean sheet @ 6/5 - 1 unit returns 2.2
Felipe Massa to win (each way) @ 33/1 - 1 unit returns 0
Everton v Manchester City draw @ 5/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Robinho to score anytime @ 11/4 - 1 unit returns 3.75
Real Madrid to beat Sevilla @ 9/5 - 1 unit returns 2.8
Over 3.5 goals @ 2/1 - 1 unit returns 3
Over 4.5 goals @ 9/2 - 1 unit returns 5.5
Hat-trick being scored @ 24/5 - 1 unit returns 5.8
Gonzalo Higuain to score the last goal @ 6/1 - 1 unit returns 0
Birmingham to beat Preston @ 5/6 - 1 unit returns 0
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - 1 unit returns 0
Total outlay: 13 units
Total return: 24.85 units
Profit: 11.85 units
Return/outlay: 191%
Friday 24 April 2009
Birmingham City v Preston North End, Saturday 25th April
My Thoughts
A win for Birmingham takes them up into the Premier League. It really is as simple as that for Alex Mcleish's side, as they face a Preston side fresh off the back of ending Cardiff's automatic promotion challenge with an emphatic 6-0 romp at Deepdale last Saturday, a result which means Alan Irvine's side still themselves have a mathematical chance of making the play-offs. Birmingham's home form this season has been predominantly solid. They are not among the division's highest scorers, but the experienced Maik Taylor (who should be back in goals following suspension) forms part of a solid, cohesive unit at the back, which is helped by a midfield never short on effort. Preston travel to St Andrews in buoyant mood after that 6-0 win over Cardiff, but also with a poor away record this season away from home: only 4 wins away from home this season, the 18th best record in the Championship.
The Verdict
Birmingham have been solid if unspectacular in their promotion push this season, and are unbeaten in 10 at St Andrews. I can see this being another tight game, but Birmingham should be able to do enough to get the win to take them back up. Home win
The Bet
Birmingham can be backed at 5/6 with Betfred to win, although it may also be worth considering under 2.5 goals, which is available across the market at 4/6
A win for Birmingham takes them up into the Premier League. It really is as simple as that for Alex Mcleish's side, as they face a Preston side fresh off the back of ending Cardiff's automatic promotion challenge with an emphatic 6-0 romp at Deepdale last Saturday, a result which means Alan Irvine's side still themselves have a mathematical chance of making the play-offs. Birmingham's home form this season has been predominantly solid. They are not among the division's highest scorers, but the experienced Maik Taylor (who should be back in goals following suspension) forms part of a solid, cohesive unit at the back, which is helped by a midfield never short on effort. Preston travel to St Andrews in buoyant mood after that 6-0 win over Cardiff, but also with a poor away record this season away from home: only 4 wins away from home this season, the 18th best record in the Championship.
The Verdict
Birmingham have been solid if unspectacular in their promotion push this season, and are unbeaten in 10 at St Andrews. I can see this being another tight game, but Birmingham should be able to do enough to get the win to take them back up. Home win
The Bet
Birmingham can be backed at 5/6 with Betfred to win, although it may also be worth considering under 2.5 goals, which is available across the market at 4/6
Sevilla v Real Madrid, Sunday 26th April
My Thoughts
With all the focus having been on Barcelona and Real Madrid, it's been easy not to notice Sevilla this season, who are on course for a Champions League place in 3rd, albeit 18 points behind Madrid. Their current form, admittedly, is poor- 3 defeats on the spit, although that run is as much a function of facing trips to Valencia (a horrendously-tempered match in which no fewer than 8 Sevilla players were booked, with Adriano picking up 2 yellows from referee Bernardino Gonzalez Vazquez) and Barcelona within 4 days of each other, as it is of any slump in form for Manolo Jimenez's side. Real Madrid, on the other hand, are flying right now, seemingly capable of playing with style and panache (witness their 5-2 destruction of Athletic Bilbao and their 6-1 demolition of Real Betis) and also grinding out results (witness last weekend's 1-0 win at Recreativo, and their midweek 3-2 win over Getafe).
The Verdict
Games between these two sides tend to be high-scoring- their last 15 meetings in La Liga have produced an utterly preposterous total of 61 goals- their meeting at the Bernabeu earlier this season was no exception, with Sevilla emerging as 4-3 winners. I foresee another high-scoring encounter here, with Real Madrid coming out on top. Away win
The Bet
There are some fantastic bets available here. Real Madrid can be backed at 9/5 with Stan James (keen observers of the blog will notice a distinct lack of recommendations for Ladbrokes. Real are 5/4 with them for this one. Pfft). Consideration must also be given to the over/under goal markets- Victor Chandler offer 2/1 on over 3.5 goals, with Sporting Bet offering 9/2 on over 4.5. Betfair also offer 24/5 on a hat-trick being scored, which should be considered given the goalscoring talent on both sides- Kanoute, Higuain, Luis Fabiano, Huntelaar and Raul could all have a field day. Higuain to repeat his exploits against Getafe and score the last goal is available at 6/1 with Paddy Power and Bet365.
With all the focus having been on Barcelona and Real Madrid, it's been easy not to notice Sevilla this season, who are on course for a Champions League place in 3rd, albeit 18 points behind Madrid. Their current form, admittedly, is poor- 3 defeats on the spit, although that run is as much a function of facing trips to Valencia (a horrendously-tempered match in which no fewer than 8 Sevilla players were booked, with Adriano picking up 2 yellows from referee Bernardino Gonzalez Vazquez) and Barcelona within 4 days of each other, as it is of any slump in form for Manolo Jimenez's side. Real Madrid, on the other hand, are flying right now, seemingly capable of playing with style and panache (witness their 5-2 destruction of Athletic Bilbao and their 6-1 demolition of Real Betis) and also grinding out results (witness last weekend's 1-0 win at Recreativo, and their midweek 3-2 win over Getafe).
The Verdict
Games between these two sides tend to be high-scoring- their last 15 meetings in La Liga have produced an utterly preposterous total of 61 goals- their meeting at the Bernabeu earlier this season was no exception, with Sevilla emerging as 4-3 winners. I foresee another high-scoring encounter here, with Real Madrid coming out on top. Away win
The Bet
There are some fantastic bets available here. Real Madrid can be backed at 9/5 with Stan James (keen observers of the blog will notice a distinct lack of recommendations for Ladbrokes. Real are 5/4 with them for this one. Pfft). Consideration must also be given to the over/under goal markets- Victor Chandler offer 2/1 on over 3.5 goals, with Sporting Bet offering 9/2 on over 4.5. Betfair also offer 24/5 on a hat-trick being scored, which should be considered given the goalscoring talent on both sides- Kanoute, Higuain, Luis Fabiano, Huntelaar and Raul could all have a field day. Higuain to repeat his exploits against Getafe and score the last goal is available at 6/1 with Paddy Power and Bet365.
Thursday 23 April 2009
Everton v Manchester City, Saturday 25th April
My Thoughts
David Moyes has once again done an excellent job this season with Everton: FA Cup finalists, firmly established in the top 6, and responsible for one of the signings of the season in Marouane Fellaini (how he wasn't on the shortlist for Young Player of the Year I'm not sure. The only possible reason I can think of is folk not realising he's only 21. I'm going to avoid going into a rant about Aaron Lennon and get back to previewing the game at hand). Mark Hughes, on t'other hand, has faced different pressures to those faced by Moyes, but has done an equally impressive job, with the team's expensive individuals beginning to show signs of forming a cohesive unit, although they are still woefully inconsistent. Their home form is strong (11-0-6), but their away form this season has been a real let-down (1-5-10), which has led to question marks being raised on the contribution away from home of the likes of Robinho. Everton have not lost in their last 8 at Goodison Park, winning their last 4, with City winless in their last 14 Premier League away games. These stats would tend to point to a home win, however Everton looked very tired towards the end of their 0-0 draw (itself a very respectable result, sure to provide a confidence boost ahead of the FA Cup Final), and with this match coming just 3 days after, David Moyes may well be inclined to freshen his side up. However, Everton's squad is one of the smallest in the league, and with Jo and Lars Jacobsen both going off injured against Chelsea, that squad may be stretched even further.
The Verdict
Both these sides will have one eye on 7th placed West Ham. City can still conceivably catch the Hammers and claim Europa League football for next season, while Everton's 8 point lead over Gianfranco Zola's side should be enough to keep them in the top 6. With Everton no doubt having thoughts about the FA Cup final, City may well have a chance to break their awful run away from home this season and claim a result here. Draw
The Bet
Back the draw (best price 5/2 general). Or, for a little bit of extra interest, Robinho, who looks to be rediscovering his form, having found the net against West Brom last week, can be backed at 11/4 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Avoid backing any Everton goalscorers until the team sheets are published, due to the possibility of David Moyes making changes
David Moyes has once again done an excellent job this season with Everton: FA Cup finalists, firmly established in the top 6, and responsible for one of the signings of the season in Marouane Fellaini (how he wasn't on the shortlist for Young Player of the Year I'm not sure. The only possible reason I can think of is folk not realising he's only 21. I'm going to avoid going into a rant about Aaron Lennon and get back to previewing the game at hand). Mark Hughes, on t'other hand, has faced different pressures to those faced by Moyes, but has done an equally impressive job, with the team's expensive individuals beginning to show signs of forming a cohesive unit, although they are still woefully inconsistent. Their home form is strong (11-0-6), but their away form this season has been a real let-down (1-5-10), which has led to question marks being raised on the contribution away from home of the likes of Robinho. Everton have not lost in their last 8 at Goodison Park, winning their last 4, with City winless in their last 14 Premier League away games. These stats would tend to point to a home win, however Everton looked very tired towards the end of their 0-0 draw (itself a very respectable result, sure to provide a confidence boost ahead of the FA Cup Final), and with this match coming just 3 days after, David Moyes may well be inclined to freshen his side up. However, Everton's squad is one of the smallest in the league, and with Jo and Lars Jacobsen both going off injured against Chelsea, that squad may be stretched even further.
The Verdict
Both these sides will have one eye on 7th placed West Ham. City can still conceivably catch the Hammers and claim Europa League football for next season, while Everton's 8 point lead over Gianfranco Zola's side should be enough to keep them in the top 6. With Everton no doubt having thoughts about the FA Cup final, City may well have a chance to break their awful run away from home this season and claim a result here. Draw
The Bet
Back the draw (best price 5/2 general). Or, for a little bit of extra interest, Robinho, who looks to be rediscovering his form, having found the net against West Brom last week, can be backed at 11/4 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Avoid backing any Everton goalscorers until the team sheets are published, due to the possibility of David Moyes making changes
Bahrain Grand Prix, Sunday 26th April
My Thoughts
Thought I'd deviate from the football for this one and share my knowledge of another great passion of mine: Formula One. This weekend, it's the Bahrain Grand Prix. It's been an enthralling season thus far, with Jenson Button and his Brawn GP team claiming victory in the first 2 races of the season, before last weekend Sebastian Vettel claimed Red Bull's first race win in Shanghai. After the safety-car-interrupted Australian Grand Prix followed by two wet races, Bahrain this weekend looks likely to be the first "normal" race of the season in the desert sun, which theoretically should make it slightly easier to call. However, trying to call anything in F1 is usually very tough, even more so this season. The Sakhir International Circuit has traditionally been a Ferrari track, and despite their wretched start to the season, there were signs of improvement at Shanghai (Massa, usually hopeless in the wet, was running a very solid 3rd until his car died on him), so expect Kimi and Felipe to both be challenging at least for points-scoring finishes. Felipe usually goes well in Bahrain; he qualified 2nd at the track on his Ferrari debut in 2006, before brake issues ended his chances.
The Verdict
Brawn GP and Red Bull have been the teams to beat so far this season. Expect more of the same here, but with Mclaren, and particularly Ferrari, much closer. Perhaps even Alonso may come into contention, certainly on Saturday if Renault run light again.
The Bet
Felipe Massa to win (each way, best price 33/1 with Ladbrokes. This price is certain to fluctuate, however, depending on Friday Practice results)
Thought I'd deviate from the football for this one and share my knowledge of another great passion of mine: Formula One. This weekend, it's the Bahrain Grand Prix. It's been an enthralling season thus far, with Jenson Button and his Brawn GP team claiming victory in the first 2 races of the season, before last weekend Sebastian Vettel claimed Red Bull's first race win in Shanghai. After the safety-car-interrupted Australian Grand Prix followed by two wet races, Bahrain this weekend looks likely to be the first "normal" race of the season in the desert sun, which theoretically should make it slightly easier to call. However, trying to call anything in F1 is usually very tough, even more so this season. The Sakhir International Circuit has traditionally been a Ferrari track, and despite their wretched start to the season, there were signs of improvement at Shanghai (Massa, usually hopeless in the wet, was running a very solid 3rd until his car died on him), so expect Kimi and Felipe to both be challenging at least for points-scoring finishes. Felipe usually goes well in Bahrain; he qualified 2nd at the track on his Ferrari debut in 2006, before brake issues ended his chances.
The Verdict
Brawn GP and Red Bull have been the teams to beat so far this season. Expect more of the same here, but with Mclaren, and particularly Ferrari, much closer. Perhaps even Alonso may come into contention, certainly on Saturday if Renault run light again.
The Bet
Felipe Massa to win (each way, best price 33/1 with Ladbrokes. This price is certain to fluctuate, however, depending on Friday Practice results)
Wednesday 22 April 2009
Fulham v Stoke City, Saturday 25th April
My Thoughts
Two sides here both going reasonably well. Stoke's recent good form has taken them on to the 39 point mark, ever increasing the possibility of them playing Premier League football next season, while Fulham have played themselves into contention for a Europa League place. Form-wise, Fulham's home record is excellent (9-3-4, 7th best home record in the league), while Stoke have managed just 1 win on their travels this season (and that was against West Brom). Therefore, the obvious conclusion to come to would be a home win. Both these sides tend to take the vast majority of their points at home (82% of Stoke's points have come at the Britannia, with 68% of Fulham's at Craven Cottage), so expect Fulham to take all 3 points here
The Verdict
While Stoke have been improving throughout the season (they now sit 12th in the league, with a number of winnable fixtures remaining, should 39 points not be enough to keep them up), the emphasis has been on their home form, which somewhat overlooks a dreadful away record. Can't see past a home win.
The Bet
Fulham can be backed at a general 4/5, but given the form of Mark Schwarzer, it might be worthwhile backing a home clean sheet (best price 6/5 with William Hill)
Two sides here both going reasonably well. Stoke's recent good form has taken them on to the 39 point mark, ever increasing the possibility of them playing Premier League football next season, while Fulham have played themselves into contention for a Europa League place. Form-wise, Fulham's home record is excellent (9-3-4, 7th best home record in the league), while Stoke have managed just 1 win on their travels this season (and that was against West Brom). Therefore, the obvious conclusion to come to would be a home win. Both these sides tend to take the vast majority of their points at home (82% of Stoke's points have come at the Britannia, with 68% of Fulham's at Craven Cottage), so expect Fulham to take all 3 points here
The Verdict
While Stoke have been improving throughout the season (they now sit 12th in the league, with a number of winnable fixtures remaining, should 39 points not be enough to keep them up), the emphasis has been on their home form, which somewhat overlooks a dreadful away record. Can't see past a home win.
The Bet
Fulham can be backed at a general 4/5, but given the form of Mark Schwarzer, it might be worthwhile backing a home clean sheet (best price 6/5 with William Hill)
Tuesday 21 April 2009
Energie Cottbus v Wolfsburg, Sunday 26th April
My Thoughts
Wolfsburg are flying right now- top of the Bundesliga, 10 wins in a row, Grafite scoring goals for fun, Felix Magath's side have given themselves a real chance of winning the title in what has been an extremely close-fought title race. Cottbus, on the other hand, are firmly entrenched in a relegation battle, and face a real task in trying to get anything from the clash at the Stadion auf Freundshaft (Stadium of Friendship. No, really). Their recent form is poor: only 2 wins from their last 8 games, and the reverse fixture in November resulted in a comfortable 3-0 win for Wolfsburg.
The Verdict
It's extremely difficult to see past Wolfsburg winning here. Although they have only 4 away wins under their belts this season, those were their last 4 games, including a 2-1 win away at Cottbus' relegation rivals Borussia Monchengladbach. With no UEFA Cup campaign to distract them, Wolfsburg should be at full-strength, and should win here. Away win
The Bet
Wolfsburg to win (best price 4/6 with Betfred). The reason I'm posting this so far in advance is because I don't expect this price to last. I really cannot overstate how good a price I think this is
Wolfsburg are flying right now- top of the Bundesliga, 10 wins in a row, Grafite scoring goals for fun, Felix Magath's side have given themselves a real chance of winning the title in what has been an extremely close-fought title race. Cottbus, on the other hand, are firmly entrenched in a relegation battle, and face a real task in trying to get anything from the clash at the Stadion auf Freundshaft (Stadium of Friendship. No, really). Their recent form is poor: only 2 wins from their last 8 games, and the reverse fixture in November resulted in a comfortable 3-0 win for Wolfsburg.
The Verdict
It's extremely difficult to see past Wolfsburg winning here. Although they have only 4 away wins under their belts this season, those were their last 4 games, including a 2-1 win away at Cottbus' relegation rivals Borussia Monchengladbach. With no UEFA Cup campaign to distract them, Wolfsburg should be at full-strength, and should win here. Away win
The Bet
Wolfsburg to win (best price 4/6 with Betfred). The reason I'm posting this so far in advance is because I don't expect this price to last. I really cannot overstate how good a price I think this is
Friday 17 April 2009
Recreativo Huelva v Real Madrid, Saturday 18th April
My Thoughts
Were it not for the simply stunning form and exhilirating football exhibited by Barcelona, Real Madrid would be walking La Liga this season. Worse Real teams than the one Juande Ramos is currently putting out every week have won titles at a canter. Ramos' side are doing everything in their power to keep Barcelona within their sights, and have been swatting aside all comers in recent weeks, putting 3 past Almeria, 4 past Gijon, 5 past Bilbao and 6 past Betis. Huelva, on t'other hand, are still very much in a relegation dogfight, 3 points behind 17th placed Gijon (who, incidentally, are 8 games away from going an entire league season without drawing a game), with only 4 home wins this season. Their recent form is not great (no win in their last 5) and they have found goals hard to come by (only 14 goals scored in their 15 home games this season), all of which points to another win for title-chasing Madrid.
The Verdict
Can't see past another away win (which would be their 10th of the season) for Madrid in this one.
The Bet
There's probably not much value in backing Madrid outright (best price 6/10 with Blue Square), but there could be some value in backing Raul to score anytime (best price 6/4 with Coral)
Were it not for the simply stunning form and exhilirating football exhibited by Barcelona, Real Madrid would be walking La Liga this season. Worse Real teams than the one Juande Ramos is currently putting out every week have won titles at a canter. Ramos' side are doing everything in their power to keep Barcelona within their sights, and have been swatting aside all comers in recent weeks, putting 3 past Almeria, 4 past Gijon, 5 past Bilbao and 6 past Betis. Huelva, on t'other hand, are still very much in a relegation dogfight, 3 points behind 17th placed Gijon (who, incidentally, are 8 games away from going an entire league season without drawing a game), with only 4 home wins this season. Their recent form is not great (no win in their last 5) and they have found goals hard to come by (only 14 goals scored in their 15 home games this season), all of which points to another win for title-chasing Madrid.
The Verdict
Can't see past another away win (which would be their 10th of the season) for Madrid in this one.
The Bet
There's probably not much value in backing Madrid outright (best price 6/10 with Blue Square), but there could be some value in backing Raul to score anytime (best price 6/4 with Coral)
Aston Villa v West Ham, Saturday 18th April
My Thoughts
Two sides here currently experiencing vastly different runs of form. Villa haven't won a league game in 2 months, while West Ham have played themselves into contention for a Europa League place. Villa, without the influential Martin Laursen, have been haemmoraging goals recently, conceding 17 goals in their last 6 games, placing an even greater reliance on a front line that has been hit by injuries recently- Emile Heskey and Gabriel Agbonlahor could both miss this match, and with Marlon Harewood on loan at Wolves, Martin O'Neill is left with only John Carew and youngster Nathan Delfouneso as his attacking options. Carlos Cuellar is also a doubt. West Ham travel to Villa Park off the back of a 1-0 defeat against Tottenham last Saturday in a largely forgettable match. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Hammers were arguably the better side, but Villa emerged with the 3 points, courtesy of a deflected James Milner effort. Brad Friedel in the Aston Villa goal has not kept a clean sheet at Villa Park since Wigan were the visitors at the end of January, a run that has contributed to Villa falling out of contention for a Champions League place. Expect Friedel to be busy, even against a side that have won only 4 Premier League away games this season.
The Verdict
Two sides on differing runs of form, here. Villa have not so much stuttered in recent weeks as suffered complete hydraulic failure. Part of this stems from their encounter with Manchester United 2 weeks ago, where the damage done was not just in the result (and the manner of the result), but also in that Villa were found out by United to be essentially a long-ball side with no plan B. Gone is the high-tempo, counter-attacking side we saw earlier this season. However, West Ham have won just once in 11 league visits to Villa Park. Draw
The Bet
I'd be tempted by the draw (best price 13/5 Blue Square), but it might also be worth considering over 2.5 goals (Villa's last 4 games have all featured over 2.5 goals), considering Villa's leaky defence/prolific strikeforce combination (best price 8/11 Paddy Power)
Two sides here currently experiencing vastly different runs of form. Villa haven't won a league game in 2 months, while West Ham have played themselves into contention for a Europa League place. Villa, without the influential Martin Laursen, have been haemmoraging goals recently, conceding 17 goals in their last 6 games, placing an even greater reliance on a front line that has been hit by injuries recently- Emile Heskey and Gabriel Agbonlahor could both miss this match, and with Marlon Harewood on loan at Wolves, Martin O'Neill is left with only John Carew and youngster Nathan Delfouneso as his attacking options. Carlos Cuellar is also a doubt. West Ham travel to Villa Park off the back of a 1-0 defeat against Tottenham last Saturday in a largely forgettable match. In the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Hammers were arguably the better side, but Villa emerged with the 3 points, courtesy of a deflected James Milner effort. Brad Friedel in the Aston Villa goal has not kept a clean sheet at Villa Park since Wigan were the visitors at the end of January, a run that has contributed to Villa falling out of contention for a Champions League place. Expect Friedel to be busy, even against a side that have won only 4 Premier League away games this season.
The Verdict
Two sides on differing runs of form, here. Villa have not so much stuttered in recent weeks as suffered complete hydraulic failure. Part of this stems from their encounter with Manchester United 2 weeks ago, where the damage done was not just in the result (and the manner of the result), but also in that Villa were found out by United to be essentially a long-ball side with no plan B. Gone is the high-tempo, counter-attacking side we saw earlier this season. However, West Ham have won just once in 11 league visits to Villa Park. Draw
The Bet
I'd be tempted by the draw (best price 13/5 Blue Square), but it might also be worth considering over 2.5 goals (Villa's last 4 games have all featured over 2.5 goals), considering Villa's leaky defence/prolific strikeforce combination (best price 8/11 Paddy Power)
Newsflash
Wishart calls for forgiveness
Following his calls for Barry Ferguson and Allan McGregor's Scotland bans to be lifted, Fraser Wishart, head of the Scottish PFA, has again asked for forgiveness on behalf of someone else: this time, it's former German leader Adolf Hitler. Wishart has supposedly written to Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy and Barack Obama, current heads of the 3 main "allies" from WW2 requesting a formal, posthumous pardon for the Fuhrer. In a recent interview, Wishart said "In the world today, we should be a bit bigger than to continue to beat this guy with a stick". Wishart went on to praise Hitler's "good management" of the German economic collapse of the 1930s, and believes that the hostile reaction shown to Germany since WW2 was "severe". Wishart was born in 1965, and therefore missed Hitler's demise by 20 years, but went on to say that had he been there, "I would have said to Adolf, "let's just wait and take stock to see how this matter unfolds and see what the sanction is", and from my point of view, it's time to draw a line under it".
Following his calls for Barry Ferguson and Allan McGregor's Scotland bans to be lifted, Fraser Wishart, head of the Scottish PFA, has again asked for forgiveness on behalf of someone else: this time, it's former German leader Adolf Hitler. Wishart has supposedly written to Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy and Barack Obama, current heads of the 3 main "allies" from WW2 requesting a formal, posthumous pardon for the Fuhrer. In a recent interview, Wishart said "In the world today, we should be a bit bigger than to continue to beat this guy with a stick". Wishart went on to praise Hitler's "good management" of the German economic collapse of the 1930s, and believes that the hostile reaction shown to Germany since WW2 was "severe". Wishart was born in 1965, and therefore missed Hitler's demise by 20 years, but went on to say that had he been there, "I would have said to Adolf, "let's just wait and take stock to see how this matter unfolds and see what the sanction is", and from my point of view, it's time to draw a line under it".
Thursday 16 April 2009
Cowdenbeath v Dumbarton, Saturday 18th April
My Thoughts
This match is being billed as potential 3rd division title decider, and with just 1 point between the 2 sides with only 4 games left, it's easy to see why. Dumbarton are one of the form teams in the division, collecting 16 points from their last 8 games, winning their last 4 all by 2 goals to 0. Cowdenbeath's form has begun to slip at just the worst time of the season- they have drawn their last 3 games, and have not won since beating East Stirlingshire 2-0 at Central Park a month ago. Added to this, Cowdenbeath boss Danny Lennon looks set to be without key men Brian Fairbairn, Kenny Adamson and Paul McQuade. Dumbarton have doubts over the fitness of forward Derek Carcary. The 3 previous meetings between the 2 sides this season have all been close encounters, finishing 1-1 (Strathclyde Homes Stadium), 2-0 Cowdenbeath (Central Park) and 2-1 Dumbarton (Strathclyde Homes Stadium).
The Verdict
Cowdenbeath will need to make good use of home advantage against an in-form Dumbarton side if they are to take anything from this one. The 3 previous meetings between the 2 sides this season have all been close, and I predict another close game in this one. Score draw
The Bet
Take the draw (best price 13/5, Skybet)
This match is being billed as potential 3rd division title decider, and with just 1 point between the 2 sides with only 4 games left, it's easy to see why. Dumbarton are one of the form teams in the division, collecting 16 points from their last 8 games, winning their last 4 all by 2 goals to 0. Cowdenbeath's form has begun to slip at just the worst time of the season- they have drawn their last 3 games, and have not won since beating East Stirlingshire 2-0 at Central Park a month ago. Added to this, Cowdenbeath boss Danny Lennon looks set to be without key men Brian Fairbairn, Kenny Adamson and Paul McQuade. Dumbarton have doubts over the fitness of forward Derek Carcary. The 3 previous meetings between the 2 sides this season have all been close encounters, finishing 1-1 (Strathclyde Homes Stadium), 2-0 Cowdenbeath (Central Park) and 2-1 Dumbarton (Strathclyde Homes Stadium).
The Verdict
Cowdenbeath will need to make good use of home advantage against an in-form Dumbarton side if they are to take anything from this one. The 3 previous meetings between the 2 sides this season have all been close, and I predict another close game in this one. Score draw
The Bet
Take the draw (best price 13/5, Skybet)
Bochum v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 18th April
My Thoughts
Both sides still have something to play for, here. Dortmund still have a decent chance of making the Europa League next season, while Bochum, being only 5 points ahead of 16th place Borussia Monchengladbach, are still not clear of the threat of relegation to Bundesliga 2. However, a 3-0 win away at Hoffenheim last time out will have no doubt boosted their confidence. Dortmund have won their last 3 games, including a 3-1 win away at title-chasing Hertha Berlin. However, Dortmund have not won in Bochum since March 1999, and left-back Dede, who played for Dortmund in that match said on www.bvb.de "The games in Bochum have never been easy".
Bochum have scored 21 goals in their 14 home games (1.5 per match), conceding 24 (1.71 per game), which has led to them managing just 4 home wins this season. Dortmund, away from the Signal Iduna Park (or Westfalenstadion as it was formerly known), have managed to score 21 goals (1.61 per game) in their 13 away games this season, conceding 24 (1.69 per game), giving them a W-D-L record of 5-4-4.
The Verdict
With both sides on good form right now, this promises to be a keenly-contested match, with little to choose between the sides. However, Dortmund have had an impressive second half of the season, and I fancy them to nick this one.
The Bet
Dortmund to win (best price 6/4 with Blue Square)
Both sides still have something to play for, here. Dortmund still have a decent chance of making the Europa League next season, while Bochum, being only 5 points ahead of 16th place Borussia Monchengladbach, are still not clear of the threat of relegation to Bundesliga 2. However, a 3-0 win away at Hoffenheim last time out will have no doubt boosted their confidence. Dortmund have won their last 3 games, including a 3-1 win away at title-chasing Hertha Berlin. However, Dortmund have not won in Bochum since March 1999, and left-back Dede, who played for Dortmund in that match said on www.bvb.de "The games in Bochum have never been easy".
Bochum have scored 21 goals in their 14 home games (1.5 per match), conceding 24 (1.71 per game), which has led to them managing just 4 home wins this season. Dortmund, away from the Signal Iduna Park (or Westfalenstadion as it was formerly known), have managed to score 21 goals (1.61 per game) in their 13 away games this season, conceding 24 (1.69 per game), giving them a W-D-L record of 5-4-4.
The Verdict
With both sides on good form right now, this promises to be a keenly-contested match, with little to choose between the sides. However, Dortmund have had an impressive second half of the season, and I fancy them to nick this one.
The Bet
Dortmund to win (best price 6/4 with Blue Square)
Arsenal v Chelsea, Saturday 18th April
My Thoughts
Although both sides progressed to the Champions League semi finals this week (although somebody needs to remind me what exactly these two sides are champions of), their paths there could not have been more different. While Arsenal comfortably disposed of Villarreal, playing some glorious fast-paced counter-attacking football, Chelsea were given the fright of their lives by Liverpool in an epic encounter. The match will undoubtedly have taken its toll on Chelsea's squad (indeed, drogba limped off near the end), but the match (along with the last 20 minutes of their match with Bolton last Saturday) saw something potentially much more damaging: the total loss of form of Petr Cech. Once, there was no better Czech than Petr Cech. However, conceding 7 goals in his last 2 games (and a couple of those, most notably Fabio Aurelio's free kick, being real shockers) must have left some sort of mark on a player who already has to wear a scrum cap during games, owing to a previous injury. However, this blog is not a psychoanalysis of Chelsea's goalkeeper, so back to the match itself.
There can be no denying that Arsenal are kicking into top form at just the right time of the season. 16 goals scored in their last 5 league games, along with another 3 in Wednesday's victory over Villarreal, their only question mark currently is a few injuries in their defence, which admittedly passed the test against Villarreal, however Chelsea will surely provide a sterner examination. Chelsea themselves are also in good form, a 1-0 reverse away at Tottenham their only defeat under Guus Hiddink, although just how big an impact will their gruelling, epic Champions League tie have had on their squad? Interestingly, in semi-finals, Hiddink's recent record is atrocious, having lost at the same stage with Russia (Euro 2008), PSV Eindhoven (Champions League 2005), South Korea (World Cup 2002) and Holland (World Cup 1998)
The Verdict
Games between these two sides are generally close-fought affairs, although Arsenal's 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge earlier this season is interesting to note. Arshavin has added an extra dimension to Arsenal's play, fitting into the side remarkably well for an Eastern European. Contrast this with Chelsea's big Eastern European signing a few years ago, Andriy Shevchenko, and his struggles. It may take extra-time, but I fancy Arsenal to progress to the FA Cup Final.
The Bet
Arsenal to win in extra time (best price 10/1 Paddy Power)
Although both sides progressed to the Champions League semi finals this week (although somebody needs to remind me what exactly these two sides are champions of), their paths there could not have been more different. While Arsenal comfortably disposed of Villarreal, playing some glorious fast-paced counter-attacking football, Chelsea were given the fright of their lives by Liverpool in an epic encounter. The match will undoubtedly have taken its toll on Chelsea's squad (indeed, drogba limped off near the end), but the match (along with the last 20 minutes of their match with Bolton last Saturday) saw something potentially much more damaging: the total loss of form of Petr Cech. Once, there was no better Czech than Petr Cech. However, conceding 7 goals in his last 2 games (and a couple of those, most notably Fabio Aurelio's free kick, being real shockers) must have left some sort of mark on a player who already has to wear a scrum cap during games, owing to a previous injury. However, this blog is not a psychoanalysis of Chelsea's goalkeeper, so back to the match itself.
There can be no denying that Arsenal are kicking into top form at just the right time of the season. 16 goals scored in their last 5 league games, along with another 3 in Wednesday's victory over Villarreal, their only question mark currently is a few injuries in their defence, which admittedly passed the test against Villarreal, however Chelsea will surely provide a sterner examination. Chelsea themselves are also in good form, a 1-0 reverse away at Tottenham their only defeat under Guus Hiddink, although just how big an impact will their gruelling, epic Champions League tie have had on their squad? Interestingly, in semi-finals, Hiddink's recent record is atrocious, having lost at the same stage with Russia (Euro 2008), PSV Eindhoven (Champions League 2005), South Korea (World Cup 2002) and Holland (World Cup 1998)
The Verdict
Games between these two sides are generally close-fought affairs, although Arsenal's 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge earlier this season is interesting to note. Arshavin has added an extra dimension to Arsenal's play, fitting into the side remarkably well for an Eastern European. Contrast this with Chelsea's big Eastern European signing a few years ago, Andriy Shevchenko, and his struggles. It may take extra-time, but I fancy Arsenal to progress to the FA Cup Final.
The Bet
Arsenal to win in extra time (best price 10/1 Paddy Power)
Wednesday 15 April 2009
Stromsgodset IF v Lyn, Sunday 19th April
My ThoughtsStromsgodset (or "Godset") have not had a great start to the Tippe Ligaen season, managing only 1 point from their first 4 games, which came in a 3-3 draw at home to Start. Since then, they have failed to score, losing 2-0, 2-0 and 1-0 against Fredrikstad, Molde and Bodo/Glimt respectively. Ronny Deila has work to do, and will look for his experience players such as Christer George, Oyvind Storflor, Fredrik Winsnes and captain Alexander Aas to help Godset recover their form, as they attempt to improve on last season's 11th place finish, and pick up their first league win of the season at the Marienlyst Stadion.
Lyn, currently managed by Kent Bergersen, have enjoyed a slightly better start to the season, managing a 2-0 win away at Bodo/Glimt, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Former Celtic youngster Teddy Bjarnason is now part of their squad, along with Icelandic internation centre-back Indridi Sigurdsson.
The Verdict
With it being so early on in the season, it is difficult to accurately gauge what kind of form these 2 sides are in. Lyn have made the better start to the season, in that they've actually won a game, but Godset as the home side will certainly be up for this one. Score draw
The Bet
Go for the draw (best price 23/10 with bet365)
Wolves v QPR, Saturday 18th April
My Thoughts
This game, along with other results going their way, could potentially see Wolves clinch automatic promotion back to the Premier League for the first time since 2003/2004. To do so, they must get a result against QPR, arguably the most inconsistent side in the Championship. Their 3-2 win against Sheffield Wednesday on Monday perhaps represented their season in some kind of microcosm- 2-0 down (and deservedly so) early on, one of the goals a total fluke from a corner, they then roared back to win 3-2, with 3 goals coming in a much-improved second half performance. All this from a side who yet again find themselves without a permanent manager, following Paulo Sousa's recent dismissal, and the installation of Gareth Ainsworth as caretaker for the 178th time.
Looking at the 2 sides' respective W-D-L records, this should be a comfortable home win. At Molineux this season, Wolves are 13-5-3, scoring 42 goals and conceding 21, which works out at an average of exactly 2 goals scored each game, with exactly 1 conceded. QPR's away record this season is poor (3-9-9), without an away win in their last 6 away games, scoring just 13 times away from Loftus Road this season, the joint-lowest total in the Championship.
Wolves will be without prolific striker Chris Iwelumo (as a Scot, associating "prolific" with "Iwelumo" just does not feel right), however they do still have a variety of attacking options to call upon. Mick McCarthy will probably start with 2 from Sam Vokes, Andy Keogh and Marlon Harewood in an attacking 4-4-2 formation, with Matt Jarvis likely to provide support from the wing. QPR, in reality, have nothing left to play for, with the play-offs, to all intents and purposes, beyond them. Perhaps their only motivation will be to impress any prospective new manager watching.
The Verdict
Can't really see past Wolves for this one. They had a major blip in form just after Christmas, but look to have recovered from it. The addition to the defence of Christophe Berra has helped the side massively. Home win
The Bet
Andy Keogh scored twice in Wolves' 3-2 win at Derby on Monday. Back him to score anytime in this one (best price 15/8 Paddy Power)
This game, along with other results going their way, could potentially see Wolves clinch automatic promotion back to the Premier League for the first time since 2003/2004. To do so, they must get a result against QPR, arguably the most inconsistent side in the Championship. Their 3-2 win against Sheffield Wednesday on Monday perhaps represented their season in some kind of microcosm- 2-0 down (and deservedly so) early on, one of the goals a total fluke from a corner, they then roared back to win 3-2, with 3 goals coming in a much-improved second half performance. All this from a side who yet again find themselves without a permanent manager, following Paulo Sousa's recent dismissal, and the installation of Gareth Ainsworth as caretaker for the 178th time.
Looking at the 2 sides' respective W-D-L records, this should be a comfortable home win. At Molineux this season, Wolves are 13-5-3, scoring 42 goals and conceding 21, which works out at an average of exactly 2 goals scored each game, with exactly 1 conceded. QPR's away record this season is poor (3-9-9), without an away win in their last 6 away games, scoring just 13 times away from Loftus Road this season, the joint-lowest total in the Championship.
Wolves will be without prolific striker Chris Iwelumo (as a Scot, associating "prolific" with "Iwelumo" just does not feel right), however they do still have a variety of attacking options to call upon. Mick McCarthy will probably start with 2 from Sam Vokes, Andy Keogh and Marlon Harewood in an attacking 4-4-2 formation, with Matt Jarvis likely to provide support from the wing. QPR, in reality, have nothing left to play for, with the play-offs, to all intents and purposes, beyond them. Perhaps their only motivation will be to impress any prospective new manager watching.
The Verdict
Can't really see past Wolves for this one. They had a major blip in form just after Christmas, but look to have recovered from it. The addition to the defence of Christophe Berra has helped the side massively. Home win
The Bet
Andy Keogh scored twice in Wolves' 3-2 win at Derby on Monday. Back him to score anytime in this one (best price 15/8 Paddy Power)
Monday 13 April 2009
Arsenal v Villarreal, Wednesday 15th April
My Thoughts
Arsenal really are on form right now. Another 4 goals on Saturday away at Wigan, and in pole position to qualify from this tie, having secured a 1-1 draw in El Madrigal last Tuesday. The only question marks over this tie are on Arsenal's injury worries (keeper Manuel Almunia, and defenders William Gallas and Gael Clichy are ruled out)- how will inexperienced players like Lukasz Fabianski and Kieran Gibbs cope if faced with sustained Villarreal pressure?
Villarreal, however, are not without problems of their own. They are far from prolific goalscorers, particularly away from home. This writer was shocked to actually see The Yellow Submarines actually score a goal, having witnessed 4 consecutive 0-0 draws with Manchester United. They also travel to the Emirates without key man Marcos Senna, the only Brazilian ever to win the European Championship, who as well as providing security in midfield to allow the more creative players in the side such as Ariel Ibagaza and the evergreen Robert Pires (never did this writer think that he'd be singing his praises), also popped up with the opening goal in the 1st leg.
The Verdict
Home win. Can't see an on-song Arsenal side being troubled by an off-form Villarreal
The Bet
Arsenal to win (best price 4/7 with Betfred)
Arsenal really are on form right now. Another 4 goals on Saturday away at Wigan, and in pole position to qualify from this tie, having secured a 1-1 draw in El Madrigal last Tuesday. The only question marks over this tie are on Arsenal's injury worries (keeper Manuel Almunia, and defenders William Gallas and Gael Clichy are ruled out)- how will inexperienced players like Lukasz Fabianski and Kieran Gibbs cope if faced with sustained Villarreal pressure?
Villarreal, however, are not without problems of their own. They are far from prolific goalscorers, particularly away from home. This writer was shocked to actually see The Yellow Submarines actually score a goal, having witnessed 4 consecutive 0-0 draws with Manchester United. They also travel to the Emirates without key man Marcos Senna, the only Brazilian ever to win the European Championship, who as well as providing security in midfield to allow the more creative players in the side such as Ariel Ibagaza and the evergreen Robert Pires (never did this writer think that he'd be singing his praises), also popped up with the opening goal in the 1st leg.
The Verdict
Home win. Can't see an on-song Arsenal side being troubled by an off-form Villarreal
The Bet
Arsenal to win (best price 4/7 with Betfred)
Chelsea v Liverpool, Tuesday 14th April
My Thoughts
I'm in 2 minds about this one, especially having seen these sides at the weekend. Part of me foresees a tight, dull game, maybe just the one goal, and a comfortable march for Guus Hiddink's side into the semi-finals (note: if they do get there, Hiddink's record in semi-finals is terrible). However, I'm more inclined to feel that, particularly after seeing Chelsea struggle late on in their game against Bolton at the weekend, we might just be in for quite a match tomorrow night. Even this writer must remark that Liverpool are scoring plenty of goals at the moment, and these two do have history in this competition- witness last season's 3-2 victory for Chelsea, instead of one of the myriad of binary scorelines between the two.
How will Chelsea cope without their "inspirational leader" (hahahaha) John Terry, against Fernando Torres?
What sort of impact will Steven GBHerrard have on the match?
Can Florent Malouda continue his recent impressive form under Hiddink?
Will Ryan Babel finally produce in a big game for Liverpool?
WIll Javier Mascherano or John Obi Mikel finally play a forward pass?
Which Liverpool player's house will be burgled?
Will this writer ever find a girlfriend?
So many questions. Most of them will be answered over 90 (or 120) minutes at Stamford Bridge.
The Verdict
Two sides here both going well. In terms of playing style, this should be a fascinating contest. Chelsea may not be totally comfortable sitting in to protect their 3-1 aggregate lead, given their struggles late on against Bolton on Saturday, and the recent goalscoring form of their opponents. Liverpool's natural game is to sit deep and break on opponents, with pace both from the wings and through the middle to give options for Xabi Alonso to utilise his passing range. However a counter-attacking approach is not one to consider when effectively two goals behind, although Liverpool themselves know of a historical example where such an ultra-defensive approach can result in the 2-goal victory necessary- Arsenal in 1989, anyone?
This one might just go to extra-time
The Bet
Ooh, this is a tough one. Have a look at over 2.5 goals (best price 11/10 with Victor Chandler)
I'm in 2 minds about this one, especially having seen these sides at the weekend. Part of me foresees a tight, dull game, maybe just the one goal, and a comfortable march for Guus Hiddink's side into the semi-finals (note: if they do get there, Hiddink's record in semi-finals is terrible). However, I'm more inclined to feel that, particularly after seeing Chelsea struggle late on in their game against Bolton at the weekend, we might just be in for quite a match tomorrow night. Even this writer must remark that Liverpool are scoring plenty of goals at the moment, and these two do have history in this competition- witness last season's 3-2 victory for Chelsea, instead of one of the myriad of binary scorelines between the two.
How will Chelsea cope without their "inspirational leader" (hahahaha) John Terry, against Fernando Torres?
What sort of impact will Steven GBHerrard have on the match?
Can Florent Malouda continue his recent impressive form under Hiddink?
Will Ryan Babel finally produce in a big game for Liverpool?
WIll Javier Mascherano or John Obi Mikel finally play a forward pass?
Which Liverpool player's house will be burgled?
Will this writer ever find a girlfriend?
So many questions. Most of them will be answered over 90 (or 120) minutes at Stamford Bridge.
The Verdict
Two sides here both going well. In terms of playing style, this should be a fascinating contest. Chelsea may not be totally comfortable sitting in to protect their 3-1 aggregate lead, given their struggles late on against Bolton on Saturday, and the recent goalscoring form of their opponents. Liverpool's natural game is to sit deep and break on opponents, with pace both from the wings and through the middle to give options for Xabi Alonso to utilise his passing range. However a counter-attacking approach is not one to consider when effectively two goals behind, although Liverpool themselves know of a historical example where such an ultra-defensive approach can result in the 2-goal victory necessary- Arsenal in 1989, anyone?
This one might just go to extra-time
The Bet
Ooh, this is a tough one. Have a look at over 2.5 goals (best price 11/10 with Victor Chandler)
And That Was The Weekend
Hmmm....
Well, a mixed bag in terms of my predictions, then. United did win at the Stadium of Light (Kiko Macheda again!) to leave the Mackems in real danger, we did see under 2.5 goals at the Britannia (and some fearsome tackling), and I was half-right about the result at Anfield (you're not likely to score with Christopher Samba upfront on his own. A beast of a centre-half? Oh yes. A clinical centre-forward? A virgin in a monastery would have more chance of scoring), although am I the only one sick and tired of hearing about Hillsborough? I swear those drug-dealing scousers would hold a memorial service for a dead battery.
I'll get my thoughts for the Champions League matches this week (along with any other matches that you ask me to do) up later on today.
Shifty
Well, a mixed bag in terms of my predictions, then. United did win at the Stadium of Light (Kiko Macheda again!) to leave the Mackems in real danger, we did see under 2.5 goals at the Britannia (and some fearsome tackling), and I was half-right about the result at Anfield (you're not likely to score with Christopher Samba upfront on his own. A beast of a centre-half? Oh yes. A clinical centre-forward? A virgin in a monastery would have more chance of scoring), although am I the only one sick and tired of hearing about Hillsborough? I swear those drug-dealing scousers would hold a memorial service for a dead battery.
I'll get my thoughts for the Champions League matches this week (along with any other matches that you ask me to do) up later on today.
Shifty
Saturday 11 April 2009
Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts
On taking the Spurs job, Harry Redknapp's stated aim this season was merely to keep the team in the Premier League. With 38 points on the board, that aim looks like it has been achieved, although the team are probably a bit too far off challenging for a Europa League place. That cannot, though, be said of West Ham, who currently hold 7th position. Last weekend saw the latest product of the famous West Ham academy, Junior Stanislas, make his breakthrough into the Hammers first team, scoring the opening goal in the 2-0 victory over Sunderland, and being rewarded this week with a new contract. Last weekend's late collapse at Blackburn aside, Tottenham's recent form is good, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea. Having said that, West Ham themselves are in form right now, having not lost in their last 5 games. Tottenham home games haven't seen many goals this season- just 25 (16 for, 9 against) in 15 games, and Robert Green in goals for West Ham seems to be in form, as ever.
The Verdict
Difficult to separate these two. There can be no denying the improvement in results for Spurs under Redknapp, however Gianfranco Zola's Hammers are playing beautiful football and getting results from it. Score draw
The Bet
I fancy a little scorecast here. 1-1 (best price 6/1 Betfred)
On taking the Spurs job, Harry Redknapp's stated aim this season was merely to keep the team in the Premier League. With 38 points on the board, that aim looks like it has been achieved, although the team are probably a bit too far off challenging for a Europa League place. That cannot, though, be said of West Ham, who currently hold 7th position. Last weekend saw the latest product of the famous West Ham academy, Junior Stanislas, make his breakthrough into the Hammers first team, scoring the opening goal in the 2-0 victory over Sunderland, and being rewarded this week with a new contract. Last weekend's late collapse at Blackburn aside, Tottenham's recent form is good, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea. Having said that, West Ham themselves are in form right now, having not lost in their last 5 games. Tottenham home games haven't seen many goals this season- just 25 (16 for, 9 against) in 15 games, and Robert Green in goals for West Ham seems to be in form, as ever.
The Verdict
Difficult to separate these two. There can be no denying the improvement in results for Spurs under Redknapp, however Gianfranco Zola's Hammers are playing beautiful football and getting results from it. Score draw
The Bet
I fancy a little scorecast here. 1-1 (best price 6/1 Betfred)
Friday 10 April 2009
Dundee v Airdire United, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts
Dundee have improved significantly under Jocky Scott, but are in all probability too far back for a serious promotion tilt this season- conceding late goals away at Ross County and Dunfermline in recent weeks has not helped their cause. It's fair to say that Airdrie are where most people expected them to be pre-season, fighting near the bottom of the league. Clyde's recent abysmal form has given them hope of at least avoiding automatic relegation, however they do have just 1 away win this season, and have failed to score in their last 4 away matches, infact only managing 7 away from home all season. With Dundee keeping clean sheets in 53% of their home games this season, it's hard to see Airdrie scoring.
The Verdict
Dundee should win this one against an out-of-form Airdrie. The Diamonds simply do not score goals away from home, and the Dark Blues should have too much. Home win
The Bet
Dundee to win (best price 11/13, expekt.com)
Dundee have improved significantly under Jocky Scott, but are in all probability too far back for a serious promotion tilt this season- conceding late goals away at Ross County and Dunfermline in recent weeks has not helped their cause. It's fair to say that Airdrie are where most people expected them to be pre-season, fighting near the bottom of the league. Clyde's recent abysmal form has given them hope of at least avoiding automatic relegation, however they do have just 1 away win this season, and have failed to score in their last 4 away matches, infact only managing 7 away from home all season. With Dundee keeping clean sheets in 53% of their home games this season, it's hard to see Airdrie scoring.
The Verdict
Dundee should win this one against an out-of-form Airdrie. The Diamonds simply do not score goals away from home, and the Dark Blues should have too much. Home win
The Bet
Dundee to win (best price 11/13, expekt.com)
Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts
Interesting match, this one. Liverpool are unbeaten in the league at home this season, although that does cover up slightly the 6 home draws this season, with Hull, Stoke, Fulham, West Ham, Manchester City and Everton all emerging with a point. Rovers under Allardyce are a reformed side, suffering just 3 defeats since Big Sam's arrival in December all 3 of those coming against top 5 sides. As with all Allardyce sides, they are not the most aesthetically pleasing, and don't expect them to come out and attack Liverpool. Allardyce will know that sides who sit in and invite Liverpool to break them down are just the sort of sides that The Fat Spanish Waiter's mob have struggled against this season. Focusing on Rovers form under Allardyce (it is slightly unfair to look at their results under Paul Ince, as they are a completely different side now in terms of methodology, if not personnel), they are 2-2-2 away from home, and 5-6-3 overall, scoring 18 in those games, and conceding 16. Liverpool at home do not concede many goals in the league- only Hull City have scored more than 1 goal at Anfield in the league this season.
However, two more factors to take into consideration are what sort of team will Rafa Benitez pick, and Blackburn's record at Anfield. Steven GBHerrard is an injury doubt, particularly with a Champions League game on Tuesday, so may well not be risked, along with a number of other players. Rafa has history for making wholesale changes in these sorts of situations. It is also noteworthy that Blackburn have drawn on 3 of their last 6 visits to Anfield, and have already won in Liverpool this season, beating Everton 3-2 way back on the opening day of the season, back in a time when recession was a word that only appeared in economics textbooks, and George Bush was still US President.
The Verdict
This looks like being a very tight game, featuring 2 sides well versed in counter-attacking, but not so comfortable when having to actually start the attacks themselves. Rovers will seek to frustrate the scousers, hard-as-nails defenders such as Ooijer, Given, Nelsen and Samba won't take any nonsense from Torres (if he isn't rotated) and co. Rovers might just sneak a 0-0, I reckon.
The Bet
Can't see there being many goals in this one, so take under 2.5 goals (best price 5/6 with Betfred)
Interesting match, this one. Liverpool are unbeaten in the league at home this season, although that does cover up slightly the 6 home draws this season, with Hull, Stoke, Fulham, West Ham, Manchester City and Everton all emerging with a point. Rovers under Allardyce are a reformed side, suffering just 3 defeats since Big Sam's arrival in December all 3 of those coming against top 5 sides. As with all Allardyce sides, they are not the most aesthetically pleasing, and don't expect them to come out and attack Liverpool. Allardyce will know that sides who sit in and invite Liverpool to break them down are just the sort of sides that The Fat Spanish Waiter's mob have struggled against this season. Focusing on Rovers form under Allardyce (it is slightly unfair to look at their results under Paul Ince, as they are a completely different side now in terms of methodology, if not personnel), they are 2-2-2 away from home, and 5-6-3 overall, scoring 18 in those games, and conceding 16. Liverpool at home do not concede many goals in the league- only Hull City have scored more than 1 goal at Anfield in the league this season.
However, two more factors to take into consideration are what sort of team will Rafa Benitez pick, and Blackburn's record at Anfield. Steven GBHerrard is an injury doubt, particularly with a Champions League game on Tuesday, so may well not be risked, along with a number of other players. Rafa has history for making wholesale changes in these sorts of situations. It is also noteworthy that Blackburn have drawn on 3 of their last 6 visits to Anfield, and have already won in Liverpool this season, beating Everton 3-2 way back on the opening day of the season, back in a time when recession was a word that only appeared in economics textbooks, and George Bush was still US President.
The Verdict
This looks like being a very tight game, featuring 2 sides well versed in counter-attacking, but not so comfortable when having to actually start the attacks themselves. Rovers will seek to frustrate the scousers, hard-as-nails defenders such as Ooijer, Given, Nelsen and Samba won't take any nonsense from Torres (if he isn't rotated) and co. Rovers might just sneak a 0-0, I reckon.
The Bet
Can't see there being many goals in this one, so take under 2.5 goals (best price 5/6 with Betfred)
Thursday 9 April 2009
Reading v Sheffield United, Friday 10th April
My Thoughts
Make no mistake, this game has the potential for goals. Reading are the 2nd highest scorers in the Championship, clearly not subscribing to the binary methodology (for non-computer geeks, that means proliferation of 1s and 0s) employed by Alex McLeish's Birmingham side in their attempt to gain automatic promotion. 4th highest scorers in the Championship are the visitors, the Blades, who are on fire at the moment, having not lost in their last 9 matches, seeing off fellow promotion contenders the Binarys and Cardiff in the process, and scoring 19 goals in those games. Reading are one of the best footballing sides in the league, playing a genuine 4-4-2 with 2 wingers. This leads to them creating plenty of chances for their strikers- Kevin Doyle and Stephen Hunt are both into double figures for the season. Sheffield United under Kevin Blackwell are not too dissimilar in their approach, preferring a more direct style. Their away form (9-7-4) is the 2nd best record in the Championship, and they are 14 away games unbeaten, no less, which has helped propel them up the league.
The Verdict
Form-wise, it is very difficult to separate two very good sides, both of whom are capable of scoring goals. I reckon this could be a high-scoring game, with very little to choose between the two sides. Score draw, methinks
The Bet
Over 2.5 goals (best price 11/10 with Skybet)
Make no mistake, this game has the potential for goals. Reading are the 2nd highest scorers in the Championship, clearly not subscribing to the binary methodology (for non-computer geeks, that means proliferation of 1s and 0s) employed by Alex McLeish's Birmingham side in their attempt to gain automatic promotion. 4th highest scorers in the Championship are the visitors, the Blades, who are on fire at the moment, having not lost in their last 9 matches, seeing off fellow promotion contenders the Binarys and Cardiff in the process, and scoring 19 goals in those games. Reading are one of the best footballing sides in the league, playing a genuine 4-4-2 with 2 wingers. This leads to them creating plenty of chances for their strikers- Kevin Doyle and Stephen Hunt are both into double figures for the season. Sheffield United under Kevin Blackwell are not too dissimilar in their approach, preferring a more direct style. Their away form (9-7-4) is the 2nd best record in the Championship, and they are 14 away games unbeaten, no less, which has helped propel them up the league.
The Verdict
Form-wise, it is very difficult to separate two very good sides, both of whom are capable of scoring goals. I reckon this could be a high-scoring game, with very little to choose between the two sides. Score draw, methinks
The Bet
Over 2.5 goals (best price 11/10 with Skybet)
Middlesbrough v Hull City, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts:
The Boro are in a desperate rut at the moment. Struggling to score goals, unable to stop them going in, there's no getting away from the fact that they are in big trouble, so much so that even chairman Steve Gibson, with his Zen-like levels of patience must be beginning to think about issuing Gareth Southgate with his P45. And yet, who were the last team The Boro managed to beat? None other than Liverpool, a thoroughly deserved 2-0 victory on February 28th. Since then, however, their only point has come courtesy of a stoppage-time equaliser at home to Portsmouth courtesy of Marlon King, who will be ineligible for Saturday's game, due to his being on loan from Hull. Their home record this season (4-7-4) is better than that of a number of teams above them in the league, but hides the fact that those 15 home games have seen them score just 13 goals, and have only managed 5 clean sheets in those games.
Hull City have failed to live up to the heady heights that they hit earlier in the season, where they managed a memorable 2-1 win away at Arsenal. However, they are still picking up points, particularly away from home (their record of 5-5-5 is the 7th best in the league). Their recent form is draw-laden, the most recent result a 0-0 at home to Portsmouth.
My Thoughts
Neither team is exactly firing on all cylinders right now. At the moment, Boro are poor, but it has to be argued that Hull are not exactly that much better, although The Tigers should have enough to make sure they are playing Premier League football next season. A draw looks the most likely outcome
The Bet
The draw is available at a best price of 12/5 with Blue Square
The Boro are in a desperate rut at the moment. Struggling to score goals, unable to stop them going in, there's no getting away from the fact that they are in big trouble, so much so that even chairman Steve Gibson, with his Zen-like levels of patience must be beginning to think about issuing Gareth Southgate with his P45. And yet, who were the last team The Boro managed to beat? None other than Liverpool, a thoroughly deserved 2-0 victory on February 28th. Since then, however, their only point has come courtesy of a stoppage-time equaliser at home to Portsmouth courtesy of Marlon King, who will be ineligible for Saturday's game, due to his being on loan from Hull. Their home record this season (4-7-4) is better than that of a number of teams above them in the league, but hides the fact that those 15 home games have seen them score just 13 goals, and have only managed 5 clean sheets in those games.
Hull City have failed to live up to the heady heights that they hit earlier in the season, where they managed a memorable 2-1 win away at Arsenal. However, they are still picking up points, particularly away from home (their record of 5-5-5 is the 7th best in the league). Their recent form is draw-laden, the most recent result a 0-0 at home to Portsmouth.
My Thoughts
Neither team is exactly firing on all cylinders right now. At the moment, Boro are poor, but it has to be argued that Hull are not exactly that much better, although The Tigers should have enough to make sure they are playing Premier League football next season. A draw looks the most likely outcome
The Bet
The draw is available at a best price of 12/5 with Blue Square
Wednesday 8 April 2009
Wigan Athletic v Arsenal, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts
Interesting match-up, this. Arsenal are resurgent right now, their vavavoom seems to have been rediscovered. The return of Fabregas has been integral, although credit must be given also to Arshavin, who has made a smooth transition into the team (Arshavin? Smooth? Geddit? hehehe), and the continuing excellence of Robin van Rapefac...I mean van Persie, although the Dutchman will be missing through injury for the trip to whatever Dave Whelan is calling Wigan's home ground these days. By all accounts, Wigan were dreadful away at Everton on Sunday, although their home form is still fairly decent (7-4-4). Arsenal have the 3rd highest total of away goals in the league (26), and the return of Adebayor and Walcott to their front line should give them a real chance to add to that total.
The Verdict
Arsenal should have too much for a Wigan side who may just be losing their way a little. They have already passed the magic 40-point mark which should keep them up, but don't seem to have enough to make a serious bid for a Europa League place. Away win
The Bet
Emmanuel Adebayor to score anytime (best price 5/4 with Coral)
Interesting match-up, this. Arsenal are resurgent right now, their vavavoom seems to have been rediscovered. The return of Fabregas has been integral, although credit must be given also to Arshavin, who has made a smooth transition into the team (Arshavin? Smooth? Geddit? hehehe), and the continuing excellence of Robin van Rapefac...I mean van Persie, although the Dutchman will be missing through injury for the trip to whatever Dave Whelan is calling Wigan's home ground these days. By all accounts, Wigan were dreadful away at Everton on Sunday, although their home form is still fairly decent (7-4-4). Arsenal have the 3rd highest total of away goals in the league (26), and the return of Adebayor and Walcott to their front line should give them a real chance to add to that total.
The Verdict
Arsenal should have too much for a Wigan side who may just be losing their way a little. They have already passed the magic 40-point mark which should keep them up, but don't seem to have enough to make a serious bid for a Europa League place. Away win
The Bet
Emmanuel Adebayor to score anytime (best price 5/4 with Coral)
Ross County v Clyde, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts
The Staggies have had some good results in recent weeks (most notably a 2-1 win at home to Dunfermline), with 42-year-old Craig Brewster finding form in front of goal. Clyde, however, are in real trouble, both on and off the park. Bottom of the league having lost their last 4 games and facing the prospect of eviction from their not exactly homely home of Broadwood (somewhere near, erm, Cumbernauld I think, although one should get off the train at Croy to get to the ground), they are in desperate need of a result. However, the omens do not look good for them. In their previous visit to Victoria Park this season, John Brown's outfit defended stoutly before a late flurry of goals led to a 3-0 home win, one of 9 away defeats for Clyde this season.
The Verdict
County look like having too much for a seriously out of form Bully Wee. A repeat of the 3-0 scoreline from earlier on this season is a possibility
The Bet
County to win (best price 4/5 Skybet)
The Staggies have had some good results in recent weeks (most notably a 2-1 win at home to Dunfermline), with 42-year-old Craig Brewster finding form in front of goal. Clyde, however, are in real trouble, both on and off the park. Bottom of the league having lost their last 4 games and facing the prospect of eviction from their not exactly homely home of Broadwood (somewhere near, erm, Cumbernauld I think, although one should get off the train at Croy to get to the ground), they are in desperate need of a result. However, the omens do not look good for them. In their previous visit to Victoria Park this season, John Brown's outfit defended stoutly before a late flurry of goals led to a 3-0 home win, one of 9 away defeats for Clyde this season.
The Verdict
County look like having too much for a seriously out of form Bully Wee. A repeat of the 3-0 scoreline from earlier on this season is a possibility
The Bet
County to win (best price 4/5 Skybet)
Sunderland v Manchester United, Saturday 11th April
My Thoughts:
Sunderland gaffer Ricky Sbragia is a man under pressure. His gaffer, Niall Quinn (he with the discopants that are said to be the best) has already informed him that he has 9 games to save his job. Well, considering that the first 2 of those were meek surrenders by 1-0 and 2-0 at Manchester City and West Ham respectively, it's not gone well so far, and the Mackems are all of a sudden finding themselves right back in the relegation mire, although their cause will have been helped by Sbragia finally recalling The Best Goalkeeper In Europe (sic), Craig Gordon. Meanwhile, United's form of late has been somewhat patchy, Federico Macheda's wonder goal on his debut notwithstanding.
Sunderland have only 5 wins at home this season (5-3-7). Fortress Stadium of Light it is not. In front of goal, they are a peculiar sort. Back in December, they scored 4 goals in 2 consecutive games (OK, one of those games was against West Brom, but they still count), but since then have managed just 8 goals. Cisse and Diouf's goals have dried up at just the wrong time, this team could definitely still be a Championship side next season. Manchester United's loss of form has coincided with the departure through injury and/or suspension of a number of key players, however Vidic, Rooney and Scholes all returned on Tuesday night, and Ferdinand and Anderson could be in contention for this match.
The Verdict
This pundit cannot see past an away win, possibly of a similar ilk to the 4-0 victory for United last season on Wearside. Earlier this season, the Mackems played a 10-0-0 formation at Old Trafford, which managed to frustrate United for 90 minutes. Unfortunately for them, when United are not winning, a large amount of stoppage time tends to get played, and in this period Nemanja Vidic plundered a winning goal. I don't see it being so tight this time
The Bet
United to win (best price 1/2 with bet365)
Sunderland gaffer Ricky Sbragia is a man under pressure. His gaffer, Niall Quinn (he with the discopants that are said to be the best) has already informed him that he has 9 games to save his job. Well, considering that the first 2 of those were meek surrenders by 1-0 and 2-0 at Manchester City and West Ham respectively, it's not gone well so far, and the Mackems are all of a sudden finding themselves right back in the relegation mire, although their cause will have been helped by Sbragia finally recalling The Best Goalkeeper In Europe (sic), Craig Gordon. Meanwhile, United's form of late has been somewhat patchy, Federico Macheda's wonder goal on his debut notwithstanding.
Sunderland have only 5 wins at home this season (5-3-7). Fortress Stadium of Light it is not. In front of goal, they are a peculiar sort. Back in December, they scored 4 goals in 2 consecutive games (OK, one of those games was against West Brom, but they still count), but since then have managed just 8 goals. Cisse and Diouf's goals have dried up at just the wrong time, this team could definitely still be a Championship side next season. Manchester United's loss of form has coincided with the departure through injury and/or suspension of a number of key players, however Vidic, Rooney and Scholes all returned on Tuesday night, and Ferdinand and Anderson could be in contention for this match.
The Verdict
This pundit cannot see past an away win, possibly of a similar ilk to the 4-0 victory for United last season on Wearside. Earlier this season, the Mackems played a 10-0-0 formation at Old Trafford, which managed to frustrate United for 90 minutes. Unfortunately for them, when United are not winning, a large amount of stoppage time tends to get played, and in this period Nemanja Vidic plundered a winning goal. I don't see it being so tight this time
The Bet
United to win (best price 1/2 with bet365)
Stoke City v Newcastle United, Saturday 11th April
My thoughts:
This is sure to be a game high on intensity- Stoke know that they are edging ever nearer Premier League safety, especially off the back of their 1st away win last weekend (OK, it was at West Brom, but it still counts), and the Barcodes have Wor Alan in charge- although quite probably low on quality (these are not the best 2 sides in the league by a long shot) and goals.
A quick look at the stats shows us that Stoke have one of the best home records in the league (W-D-L 8-4-3, 28 points, 7th best home record in the league, 4 of those wins by 1-0), compared with Newcastle's away record of 2-5-8, 11 points, 15th best record in the league. Stoke home games tend to be low-scoring affairs, their 15 home games so far have seen just 31 goals (18 for Stoke, 13 for the visitors) for the patrons at the Britannia. Like their hosts, Newcastle's last away win came at West Brom (3-2), their only other away win this season coming at Portsmouth (3-0). Newcastle, however, have managed just 10 goals in their last 11 games.
These sides actually met last season in the FA Cup at the Britannia. A game high on passion but low on quality saw Stoke (then near the top of the Championship) gave a clearly disjointed Newcastle side a really good game, and the Barcodes were perhaps a tad fortunate to escape with a 0-0 draw, before winning the replay 4-1.
The Verdict:
The stats tend to point towards a low-scoring game. Stoke don't score or concede many (66% of their home games this season have resulted in under 2.5 goals, with Thomas Sorensen managing clean sheets in 46% of games), and Newcastle are having real trouble finding the net at the moment, although curiously their away form hasn't been as terrible as their league position may suggest. I see this one being a tight game, but Stoke do have something every team in their position would want: a striker scoring goals, in the form of James Beattie. I fancy Beattie to continue his excellent run of form and Stoke to sneak this one 1-0.
The Bet
Take under 2.5 goals (best price Paddy Power 8/11)
Shifty
This is sure to be a game high on intensity- Stoke know that they are edging ever nearer Premier League safety, especially off the back of their 1st away win last weekend (OK, it was at West Brom, but it still counts), and the Barcodes have Wor Alan in charge- although quite probably low on quality (these are not the best 2 sides in the league by a long shot) and goals.
A quick look at the stats shows us that Stoke have one of the best home records in the league (W-D-L 8-4-3, 28 points, 7th best home record in the league, 4 of those wins by 1-0), compared with Newcastle's away record of 2-5-8, 11 points, 15th best record in the league. Stoke home games tend to be low-scoring affairs, their 15 home games so far have seen just 31 goals (18 for Stoke, 13 for the visitors) for the patrons at the Britannia. Like their hosts, Newcastle's last away win came at West Brom (3-2), their only other away win this season coming at Portsmouth (3-0). Newcastle, however, have managed just 10 goals in their last 11 games.
These sides actually met last season in the FA Cup at the Britannia. A game high on passion but low on quality saw Stoke (then near the top of the Championship) gave a clearly disjointed Newcastle side a really good game, and the Barcodes were perhaps a tad fortunate to escape with a 0-0 draw, before winning the replay 4-1.
The Verdict:
The stats tend to point towards a low-scoring game. Stoke don't score or concede many (66% of their home games this season have resulted in under 2.5 goals, with Thomas Sorensen managing clean sheets in 46% of games), and Newcastle are having real trouble finding the net at the moment, although curiously their away form hasn't been as terrible as their league position may suggest. I see this one being a tight game, but Stoke do have something every team in their position would want: a striker scoring goals, in the form of James Beattie. I fancy Beattie to continue his excellent run of form and Stoke to sneak this one 1-0.
The Bet
Take under 2.5 goals (best price Paddy Power 8/11)
Shifty
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