My Thoughts
Back in 2008, Arsenal arrived at St Andrews pursuing the league title, and they do the same here. However, back then this game saw Arsenal's title challenge (along with Eduardo's leg) buckle, as 10-man Birmingham managed a 2-2 draw. Arsenal, epitomised by the sulking William Gallas that day, never recovered that season, showing a real lack of mental strength. However, this is a different Arsenal side- recently away at Stoke, they were given a similar examination- with 20 minutes left, and Stoke gamely competing and holding Arsene Wenger's side at 1-1, Aaron Ramsey suffered an equally horrific leg break. Yet this did not defeat Arsenal- instead they rallied, and thanks to late goals from Cesc Fabregas and Thomas Vermaelen (the signing of the season in this writer's opinion), they won the game 3-1.
The Verdict
Birmingham's long winter unbeaten run is now over, with Alex Mcleish's outfit having lost 4 of their last 7 league games. However, they have still lost just twice in the league at home this season, and as such their target for this season has changed from the pre-season hope of avoiding a relegation scrap, to knocking on the door of the UEFA Cup (I'm still calling it that) places. However, Arsenal this season have much, much greater mental strength than witnessed in previous seasons- Nicklas Bendtner's late winner away at Hull is testament to that- and with Fabregas and probably Bendtner available again, Arsenal should edge this, even if they do have to play Mickael Silvestre in central defence in place of the suspended Thomas Vermaelen. On the subject of Arsenal central defenders, I bet Sol Campbell hasn't yet given up hope of a place in Fabio Capello's World Cup squad.
The Bet
Arsenal to win outright are available at a best price of 4/7 with Betfred. As for a correct score bet, 2-1 Arsenal looks tempting given that Wenger's men have averaged exactly 2 goals per game in the league away from home this season, but have only kept 3 clean sheets in those games. It's available at a very tempting 15/2 with Blue Square. Another tempting bet could be Half Time/ Full-Time Draw/Arsenal. 7 of Birmingham's home league games this season have been level at half-time, while Arsenal are developing a canny knack of scoring late goals- it's available at a best price of 7/2 with Skybet
Friday 26 March 2010
Danny's England World Cup Squad
ShiftysLastWord.Blogspot.Com FC's blonde-haired, blue-eyed stunner Danny took time out from one of his famous gallops down the wing to give us his World Cup Squad:
Green, Hart, James
Ashley Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Upson, Johnson, Brown, Baines, Ridgewell
Lennon, Bentley, Carrick, Barry, Lampard, Milner, Young, Joe Cole
Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Carroll
BULLY!
Danny
xxx
Also, in Ally's previously selected squad, he had David Beckham, who went and duffed up his achilles. Therefore, Ally has nominated Theo Walcott to replace him
Green, Hart, James
Ashley Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Upson, Johnson, Brown, Baines, Ridgewell
Lennon, Bentley, Carrick, Barry, Lampard, Milner, Young, Joe Cole
Rooney, Defoe, Crouch, Carroll
BULLY!
Danny
xxx
Also, in Ally's previously selected squad, he had David Beckham, who went and duffed up his achilles. Therefore, Ally has nominated Theo Walcott to replace him
The Return of Graeme's Silly Bet
After months of sporadic posting I am back to post a stupid bet the day before for the first time in ages.
Agreeing with Shifty's last post, this season has been far harder to predict. Personally, I have only broken even and that is purely down to laying matches at huge potential risk to my bank balance.
On a positive note, this season has seen the rise of the mighty Ross County as exemplified by a mention on the Guardian Football Weekly podcast (32:30 minutes in).
So let's take stock. The Premier League, which teams are going down, and in what order are the top teams going to be found come May?
After at least half an hour looking at the relevant fixtures this evening on the BBC Sport website I can say with real confidence that Portsmouth are going to be relegated. I really hope that muppet with the bell finds something else to do with himself if his team have to sell their ground to make way for a new car park or Tesco.
However, every other place in the division is up for grabs. Relegation it seems is going to claim 2 out of Hull, Burnley and West Ham, big cheers for Mick McCarthy (Shifty's tip for the next Celtic manager) for showing how practice can make perfect in how to keep a newly promoted side up. Well done Wolves, you are nearly there.
To win the title however, and indeed the top 8, it is much harder to call the final line up. So here goes:
1. Manchester United (only if Rooney stays healthy)
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Everton (what am I thinking, but they have the easiest run in)
5. Tottenham
6. Liverpool
7. Manchester City
8. Aston Villa
In other leagues, specifically the Irn Bru First Division, if the mighty County can beat Dundee at home and ICT Scum midweek the club are in pole position to win the league. This is unbelievable. I, like most other Ross County fans, am positively creaming my pants over this whole scenario.
The third league being looked at is possibly the most interesting. The Irn Bru EPL, run courtesy of the Premier League, is my fantasy football league and the race for 4th place is between Shifty and Graeme's sides as we enter the final phase of the season. Anyone can still join, just go to fantasy.premierleague.com and the code for my league is 498115-112179.
Silly tip for Saturday? Hearts and Kilmarnock double. £5 on, and who cares about the odds. It would be funny for the Old Firm to both lose twice in a row
Agreeing with Shifty's last post, this season has been far harder to predict. Personally, I have only broken even and that is purely down to laying matches at huge potential risk to my bank balance.
On a positive note, this season has seen the rise of the mighty Ross County as exemplified by a mention on the Guardian Football Weekly podcast (32:30 minutes in).
So let's take stock. The Premier League, which teams are going down, and in what order are the top teams going to be found come May?
After at least half an hour looking at the relevant fixtures this evening on the BBC Sport website I can say with real confidence that Portsmouth are going to be relegated. I really hope that muppet with the bell finds something else to do with himself if his team have to sell their ground to make way for a new car park or Tesco.
However, every other place in the division is up for grabs. Relegation it seems is going to claim 2 out of Hull, Burnley and West Ham, big cheers for Mick McCarthy (Shifty's tip for the next Celtic manager) for showing how practice can make perfect in how to keep a newly promoted side up. Well done Wolves, you are nearly there.
To win the title however, and indeed the top 8, it is much harder to call the final line up. So here goes:
1. Manchester United (only if Rooney stays healthy)
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Everton (what am I thinking, but they have the easiest run in)
5. Tottenham
6. Liverpool
7. Manchester City
8. Aston Villa
In other leagues, specifically the Irn Bru First Division, if the mighty County can beat Dundee at home and ICT Scum midweek the club are in pole position to win the league. This is unbelievable. I, like most other Ross County fans, am positively creaming my pants over this whole scenario.
The third league being looked at is possibly the most interesting. The Irn Bru EPL, run courtesy of the Premier League, is my fantasy football league and the race for 4th place is between Shifty and Graeme's sides as we enter the final phase of the season. Anyone can still join, just go to fantasy.premierleague.com and the code for my league is 498115-112179.
Silly tip for Saturday? Hearts and Kilmarnock double. £5 on, and who cares about the odds. It would be funny for the Old Firm to both lose twice in a row
Tuesday 23 March 2010
What the season has taught us so far...
With the season about to enter the finishing straight, I thought I'd post a few musings and tips from the season so far from a betting perspective:
- This season has been hard. I'm sure, like myself, many folks have had less coupons coming in this season- surprise results seem to be everywhere. Witness particularly a general deterioration in the results of the bigger teams in the top league, particularly away from home
- Manchester United concede the first goal on more occasions than one might think. It's a surprising claim, but in 31 league games, United have conceded the first goal on 11 occasions- that's in 35.4% of their league games. Think about that before blindly picking Wayne Rooney as 1st goalscorer
- The best bet in the Premier League this season is..... Darren Bent 1st goalscorer. He has plundered 50% of Sunderland's league goals so far this season (20 of 40), with 12 of those being the 1st goal in the game. Give that he's very rarely shorter than 5/1 for this bet, it has to be considered outstanding value, regardless of the opposition (Bent has scored 1st against Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool (well, the dubious goals panel were going to give it to the beachball) this season). He still won't make it to the World Cup, though
- Displaced teams. Given the number of teams that have been given points deductions (usually for entering financial quagmire, giggidy giggidy), a number of teams are in slightly false positions, or displaced. Therefore, it is necessary to consider that Southampton and Crystal Palace, to name but two, should really be further up the table. Also consider the position of Livingston in the Scottish 3rd Division, a league their 1st Division squad was demoted to at the start of the season
Friday 19 March 2010
Ally's England World Cup Squad
Apologies to young Ally (he of the lightning pace and left foot like a traction engine) of ShiftysLastWord.Blogspot.com FC for the delay in posting his England World Cup Squad
Hart, Green, James
Cashley Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Johnson, Brown, Baines, Lescott
Lennon, Gerrard, Lampard, Milner, Carrick, Joe Cole, Ashley Young, Barry, Plus One (I'm so late in putting this squad up, when Ally sent it in, Beckham was still fit. A replacement player shall be nominated in due course)
Rooney, Carlton Cole, Crouch, Defoe
Hart, Green, James
Cashley Cole, Ferdinand, Terry, Johnson, Brown, Baines, Lescott
Lennon, Gerrard, Lampard, Milner, Carrick, Joe Cole, Ashley Young, Barry, Plus One (I'm so late in putting this squad up, when Ally sent it in, Beckham was still fit. A replacement player shall be nominated in due course)
Rooney, Carlton Cole, Crouch, Defoe
Portsmouth v Hull City Odds
Portsmouth to win outright: best price 6/5 with bet365
Portsmouth to win to nil: best price 11/4 with Paddy Power
Frederic Piquionne to score anytime: best price 24/13 with expekt.com. No, I've never seen a bet priced at 24/13 either
Portsmouth to win to nil: best price 11/4 with Paddy Power
Frederic Piquionne to score anytime: best price 24/13 with expekt.com. No, I've never seen a bet priced at 24/13 either
Thursday 18 March 2010
Portsmouth v Hull City, Saturday 20th March
My Thoughts
First off, an apology for the lack of action on here recently- this writer has been busy plotting his first step on the property ladder (and having a stinking run at Cheltenham), while Graeme has been setting up his own blog, graemelikes.blogspot.com.
On to the match. Both sides effectively had their relegation confirmed this week- Portsmouth's 9-point deduction for entering administration was confirmed, while Hull appointed Iain Dowie (who would win an ugliest face competition even when up against Carlos Tevez and The Elephant Man) as their new manager.
The Verdict
In all probability, this will be a Championship fixture next season, and hence that is the standard of football that these 2 are likely to serve up. Hull's away form (0-4-11) is truly shocking, and they ship goals at a rate in excess of 2 per game. Add to this the remarkable stat that Portsmouth have failed to score at home just 3 times this season (the most recent of those against Everton in September), and it's very difficult to see Hull keeping a clean sheet. Portsmouth's recent run of form (Monday's 4-1 defeat at anfailed notwithstanding) is actually half-decent considering their position, with Avram Grant's side winning away at Burnley and claiming a point at home to Sunderland in the last 5 league games, as well as reaching the FA Cip semi-finals- they may just sneak another win here. You'd have to be a bit brave and/or mental to back the team bottom of the league to win, but regular readers of this blog know that this writer falls into both of those categories.
The Bet
Portsmouth outright should be worth taking around the 6/4 mark (sorry folks, I'm at work. Odds to follow later), and if you're feeling really brave, Portsmouth to win to nil could be worth considering. Also worth considering could be Frederic Piquionne anytime scorer for Pompey, who is beginning to find his feet in the Premier League (they were at the bottom of his legs all along).
First off, an apology for the lack of action on here recently- this writer has been busy plotting his first step on the property ladder (and having a stinking run at Cheltenham), while Graeme has been setting up his own blog, graemelikes.blogspot.com.
On to the match. Both sides effectively had their relegation confirmed this week- Portsmouth's 9-point deduction for entering administration was confirmed, while Hull appointed Iain Dowie (who would win an ugliest face competition even when up against Carlos Tevez and The Elephant Man) as their new manager.
The Verdict
In all probability, this will be a Championship fixture next season, and hence that is the standard of football that these 2 are likely to serve up. Hull's away form (0-4-11) is truly shocking, and they ship goals at a rate in excess of 2 per game. Add to this the remarkable stat that Portsmouth have failed to score at home just 3 times this season (the most recent of those against Everton in September), and it's very difficult to see Hull keeping a clean sheet. Portsmouth's recent run of form (Monday's 4-1 defeat at anfailed notwithstanding) is actually half-decent considering their position, with Avram Grant's side winning away at Burnley and claiming a point at home to Sunderland in the last 5 league games, as well as reaching the FA Cip semi-finals- they may just sneak another win here. You'd have to be a bit brave and/or mental to back the team bottom of the league to win, but regular readers of this blog know that this writer falls into both of those categories.
The Bet
Portsmouth outright should be worth taking around the 6/4 mark (sorry folks, I'm at work. Odds to follow later), and if you're feeling really brave, Portsmouth to win to nil could be worth considering. Also worth considering could be Frederic Piquionne anytime scorer for Pompey, who is beginning to find his feet in the Premier League (they were at the bottom of his legs all along).
Friday 5 March 2010
Arsenal v Burnley, Saturday 6th March
My Thoughts
Some say Brian Clough signed him without seeing him play, telling him "If you're crap, Ronnie Fenton signed you. If you're good, I signed you". And that on Wednesdays, he insists on tying his shoes with his teeth. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and dear sweet jeebus does he have a tough task on Saturday away at an Arsenal side who are now within sniffing distance of the top of the Premier League.
The Verdict
Last Saturday's victory at Stoke was a massive one for Arsenal; in just about the most adverse conditions possible (having seen Aaron Ramsey suffer such a horrific injury, having failed to deal with the long-throw threat of Rory Delap and being thoroughly bullied off the park) Arsene Wenger's side managed to secure victory with 2 late goals. At home, Wenger's side have an excellent 11-1-2 record in the league this season, averaging 2.71 goals per game- that average goes above 3 if you take out the top 6 sides in the league. Burnley, on t'other hand, have a well-documented dreadful away record, even by the standards of this season's Premier League, in which most teams seem to have a case of Awaydayitis- just the 43 goals conceded in 14 away games so far, in which they have collected a grand total of 1 point. Brian Laws has not arrested a slide that started in the winter months, and it's difficult to see how, even if they go with a more circumspect approach than the attacking style which they deployed away at Aston Villa, they can stop Arsenal scoring a few here. Home win
The Bet
You'll not get much better than Blue Square's 1/7 on the home win, therefore have a look at a few other markets. With Nicklas Bendtner fit again, Arsenal now have one of their most important players available again, and Bendtner has to be considered on the anytime scorers market. Arsenal to win to nil should also be considered, given that Burnley aren't big scorers anywhere right now, and will surely adopt a damage limitation strategy. Along those lines, over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet given Arsenal's firepower, but this writer wouldn't go crazy on the number of goals to be scored- with a midweek Champions League game with Porto coming up, don't be surprised if Arsenal settle for perhaps 3 or 4.
Some say Brian Clough signed him without seeing him play, telling him "If you're crap, Ronnie Fenton signed you. If you're good, I signed you". And that on Wednesdays, he insists on tying his shoes with his teeth. All we know is, he's called Brian Laws, and dear sweet jeebus does he have a tough task on Saturday away at an Arsenal side who are now within sniffing distance of the top of the Premier League.
The Verdict
Last Saturday's victory at Stoke was a massive one for Arsenal; in just about the most adverse conditions possible (having seen Aaron Ramsey suffer such a horrific injury, having failed to deal with the long-throw threat of Rory Delap and being thoroughly bullied off the park) Arsene Wenger's side managed to secure victory with 2 late goals. At home, Wenger's side have an excellent 11-1-2 record in the league this season, averaging 2.71 goals per game- that average goes above 3 if you take out the top 6 sides in the league. Burnley, on t'other hand, have a well-documented dreadful away record, even by the standards of this season's Premier League, in which most teams seem to have a case of Awaydayitis- just the 43 goals conceded in 14 away games so far, in which they have collected a grand total of 1 point. Brian Laws has not arrested a slide that started in the winter months, and it's difficult to see how, even if they go with a more circumspect approach than the attacking style which they deployed away at Aston Villa, they can stop Arsenal scoring a few here. Home win
The Bet
You'll not get much better than Blue Square's 1/7 on the home win, therefore have a look at a few other markets. With Nicklas Bendtner fit again, Arsenal now have one of their most important players available again, and Bendtner has to be considered on the anytime scorers market. Arsenal to win to nil should also be considered, given that Burnley aren't big scorers anywhere right now, and will surely adopt a damage limitation strategy. Along those lines, over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet given Arsenal's firepower, but this writer wouldn't go crazy on the number of goals to be scored- with a midweek Champions League game with Porto coming up, don't be surprised if Arsenal settle for perhaps 3 or 4.
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