My thoughts:
This is sure to be a game high on intensity- Stoke know that they are edging ever nearer Premier League safety, especially off the back of their 1st away win last weekend (OK, it was at West Brom, but it still counts), and the Barcodes have Wor Alan in charge- although quite probably low on quality (these are not the best 2 sides in the league by a long shot) and goals.
A quick look at the stats shows us that Stoke have one of the best home records in the league (W-D-L 8-4-3, 28 points, 7th best home record in the league, 4 of those wins by 1-0), compared with Newcastle's away record of 2-5-8, 11 points, 15th best record in the league. Stoke home games tend to be low-scoring affairs, their 15 home games so far have seen just 31 goals (18 for Stoke, 13 for the visitors) for the patrons at the Britannia. Like their hosts, Newcastle's last away win came at West Brom (3-2), their only other away win this season coming at Portsmouth (3-0). Newcastle, however, have managed just 10 goals in their last 11 games.
These sides actually met last season in the FA Cup at the Britannia. A game high on passion but low on quality saw Stoke (then near the top of the Championship) gave a clearly disjointed Newcastle side a really good game, and the Barcodes were perhaps a tad fortunate to escape with a 0-0 draw, before winning the replay 4-1.
The Verdict:
The stats tend to point towards a low-scoring game. Stoke don't score or concede many (66% of their home games this season have resulted in under 2.5 goals, with Thomas Sorensen managing clean sheets in 46% of games), and Newcastle are having real trouble finding the net at the moment, although curiously their away form hasn't been as terrible as their league position may suggest. I see this one being a tight game, but Stoke do have something every team in their position would want: a striker scoring goals, in the form of James Beattie. I fancy Beattie to continue his excellent run of form and Stoke to sneak this one 1-0.
The Bet
Take under 2.5 goals (best price Paddy Power 8/11)
Shifty
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