Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers, Saturday 11th April

My Thoughts

Interesting match, this one. Liverpool are unbeaten in the league at home this season, although that does cover up slightly the 6 home draws this season, with Hull, Stoke, Fulham, West Ham, Manchester City and Everton all emerging with a point. Rovers under Allardyce are a reformed side, suffering just 3 defeats since Big Sam's arrival in December all 3 of those coming against top 5 sides. As with all Allardyce sides, they are not the most aesthetically pleasing, and don't expect them to come out and attack Liverpool. Allardyce will know that sides who sit in and invite Liverpool to break them down are just the sort of sides that The Fat Spanish Waiter's mob have struggled against this season. Focusing on Rovers form under Allardyce (it is slightly unfair to look at their results under Paul Ince, as they are a completely different side now in terms of methodology, if not personnel), they are 2-2-2 away from home, and 5-6-3 overall, scoring 18 in those games, and conceding 16. Liverpool at home do not concede many goals in the league- only Hull City have scored more than 1 goal at Anfield in the league this season.

However, two more factors to take into consideration are what sort of team will Rafa Benitez pick, and Blackburn's record at Anfield. Steven GBHerrard is an injury doubt, particularly with a Champions League game on Tuesday, so may well not be risked, along with a number of other players. Rafa has history for making wholesale changes in these sorts of situations. It is also noteworthy that Blackburn have drawn on 3 of their last 6 visits to Anfield, and have already won in Liverpool this season, beating Everton 3-2 way back on the opening day of the season, back in a time when recession was a word that only appeared in economics textbooks, and George Bush was still US President.

The Verdict
This looks like being a very tight game, featuring 2 sides well versed in counter-attacking, but not so comfortable when having to actually start the attacks themselves. Rovers will seek to frustrate the scousers, hard-as-nails defenders such as Ooijer, Given, Nelsen and Samba won't take any nonsense from Torres (if he isn't rotated) and co. Rovers might just sneak a 0-0, I reckon.

The Bet
Can't see there being many goals in this one, so take under 2.5 goals (best price 5/6 with Betfred)