Here's how my tips for y'all got on this weekend:
Wolves v Blackburn 0-0: 1 unit returns 0
Wolves v Blackburn under 2.5 goals @ 4/7: 1 unit returns 1.57
Sunderland to Beat Hull @ 9/4: 1 unit returns 3.25
Darren Bent 1st goalscorer @ 9/2: 1 unit returns 5.5
St Mirren v Kilmarnock under 2.5 goals @ 4/7: 1 unit returns 1.57
Aston Villa to beat Birmingham City @ 8/13: 1 unit returns 1.62
Burnley v Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 4/6: 1 unit return 1.67
Total outlay: 7 units
Total return: 15.18 units
Total profit: 8.18 units
Return on investment: 216.857%
Sunday 25 April 2010
Saturday 24 April 2010
Tips for Sunday 25th April
So, to follow up my Saturday tips, here are another couple for Sunday's games:
- Aston Villa have found some form again at just the right time, winning 3 of their last 4, and should overcome a fading Birmingham City's side, whose season has tailed off somewhat in recent weeks, with Alex McLeish's side failing to win any of their last 7 games
- Burnley have gone from being a team who had good home form but shipped bucketloads away to being a team who just ship bucketloads, and are unlikely to adopt a safety0first, cautious approach now that they know they must win all of their remaining games in order to have any chance of staying up. Their opponents are Liverpool, who are travel-sick in more ways than one- still awaiting their first away win in 2010, it remains to be seen what effect (if any) their unorthodox travel plans for their midweek European game will have had on them. They too will know that they must go all out for the win, in order to maintain any chance of finishing 4th. Even without Fernando Torres, they still carry a goal threat, particularly against Burnley's shaky defence, so this game could well see over 2.5 goals
Friday 23 April 2010
Betting Tips for Saturday 24th April
Firstly, Shifty and Graeme would like to apologise for the lack of activity on here this last week: this is mainly due to the after effects of consuming gallons of champagne, in celebration of the astonishing achievements of Ross County FC in getting to the Scottish Chup Final- apologies also for getting the preview of that game totally wrong. I said it would be close, but the small loss anyone following the blog may have suffered on that will have been more than offset by Don't Push It triumphing in the Grand National.
Onto this weekend:
Onto this weekend:
- Wolves v Blackburn has the look of being a particularly dreadful game of football. Wolves have drawn 3 of their last 4 games 0-0, and have managed just 10 goals at Molineux all season, with most of their better results coming away from home- witness their 3-1 win last month away at West Ham. While Mick McCarthy's men have struggled at home, Blackburn have been pretty dreadful away, with a 2-4-11 record, managing just 11 goals on the road, shipping 36. Although with Rovers safe, and Wolves nearly there, there is a chance both of these managers may take the shackles off their sides and go out to try and entertain, neither McCarthy or Sam Allardyce are known for being anything other than hoof-it merchants, and one suspects both would be quite happy with another 0-0 draw. Also, given their lack of potency (and both sides' improving defensive records), under 2.5 goals is certainly worth a shout
- A regular favourite bet of this blog is Darren Bent 1st Goalscorer, and it's well worth backing again when Sunderland visit Hull. Iain Dowie's side are in dire straits, and not just because they're Iain Dowie's side- 3 points from safety (effectively 4 considering their wretched goal difference) with only 3 games to play, Hull need a drastic change in fortune in order to stay up, and it just does not look like it's coming- indeed, safe in mid-table, Sunderland are worth backing to pick up only their 2nd away win of the season
- Down at the bottom of the SPL, St Mirren meet Kilmarnock in a relegation dogfight, and expect it to be exactly that- neither side score many goals (Kilmarnock's total in the SPL away from home this season: 4. That's 0.23 per game) and neither side are playing the most stylish stuff at the moment. Have a think about under 2.5 goals in this one as well
Friday 9 April 2010
Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 4 of 4
Well, I've given y'all a look at a few of the runners- here are my own bets that I've got on for the Grand National tomorrow. How much you take these into consideration is up to yourself, especially considering my record (Bets placed: 9. Bets won: 0. Bets lost: 9) at Cheltenham:
Eric's Charm each way (I seem to have a knack of picking horses who finish 2nd, so I'm going each-way on these first 4). 40/1 William Hill
Don't Push It each way. 20/1 William Hill
Madison du Berlais (a horse that this writer has had success backing before) each way. 50/1 William Hill
Mon Mome each way. 12/1 William Hill
Also, Beat the Boys is 100/1. Ross County to beat Celtic tomorrow are 10/1. A double of these 2, this writer has £2 on. Potential return: £2,222. Mon the County!
Eric's Charm each way (I seem to have a knack of picking horses who finish 2nd, so I'm going each-way on these first 4). 40/1 William Hill
Don't Push It each way. 20/1 William Hill
Madison du Berlais (a horse that this writer has had success backing before) each way. 50/1 William Hill
Mon Mome each way. 12/1 William Hill
Also, Beat the Boys is 100/1. Ross County to beat Celtic tomorrow are 10/1. A double of these 2, this writer has £2 on. Potential return: £2,222. Mon the County!
Celtic v Ross County, Saturday 10th April
Part 4 of the Grand National Preview will follow tonight
My Thoughts
For Celtic, the Scottish Cup represents their only realistic chance of a trophy this season, and (the final Old Firm derby of the season aside) perhaps the only chance for Neil Lennon to stake his claim for the manager's job on a permanent basis. For Derek Adams' fine young Ross County side, this is surely the biggest game in their 81-year history. County are probably now just too far back to realistically be in with a chance of winning the 1st Division this season, but this has still been a memorable campaign for the Staggies, with the quarter-final victory over Hibs among the highlights. For Celtic, this has been a miserable campaign, with only the temporary signing of Robbie Keane providing them with any joy (and, no doubt, some healthy merchandise sales)
The Verdict
Now, the verdict in this one has been causing this writer much trepidation. Despite Celtic being in a higher league than County, recently their performances have been poor- they were unconvincing in victories over Kilmarnock and Hibs, and then there's the results "achieved" under Tony Mowbray. County's recent form has generally been not bad, not great- of their last 4 games, they've won 1, lost 1 and drawn 2. It should be noted, though, that County's form going into the games against Hibs wasn't brilliant, and yet the Staggies progressed (with a few late goals thrown in. Bear that in mind after 75 minutes). Celtic's Scottish Cup record is good (they've won it 4 times this millennium, and plenty of times before then), especially when compared with County, who before this season had never been beyond the last 16, but their defence has been particularly unconvincing of late, with Robbie Keane being relied on to get them out of trouble. This could be a close one
The Bet
90 minutes at Easter Road couldn't separate County and Hibs, and it took until the 90th minute for Scott Boyd to score the winner in the replay- it's not beyond County to force extra time here. Therefore, the draw at 11/2 with William Hill looks great value. The same bookmakers also offer odds on County's free-kick expert left-back Scott Morrison to score anytime of 66/1, as well as a wee special double with the Grand National: County to win and Beat the Boys to win the Grand National: £5 would net you £5,555. Tempting
My Thoughts
For Celtic, the Scottish Cup represents their only realistic chance of a trophy this season, and (the final Old Firm derby of the season aside) perhaps the only chance for Neil Lennon to stake his claim for the manager's job on a permanent basis. For Derek Adams' fine young Ross County side, this is surely the biggest game in their 81-year history. County are probably now just too far back to realistically be in with a chance of winning the 1st Division this season, but this has still been a memorable campaign for the Staggies, with the quarter-final victory over Hibs among the highlights. For Celtic, this has been a miserable campaign, with only the temporary signing of Robbie Keane providing them with any joy (and, no doubt, some healthy merchandise sales)
The Verdict
Now, the verdict in this one has been causing this writer much trepidation. Despite Celtic being in a higher league than County, recently their performances have been poor- they were unconvincing in victories over Kilmarnock and Hibs, and then there's the results "achieved" under Tony Mowbray. County's recent form has generally been not bad, not great- of their last 4 games, they've won 1, lost 1 and drawn 2. It should be noted, though, that County's form going into the games against Hibs wasn't brilliant, and yet the Staggies progressed (with a few late goals thrown in. Bear that in mind after 75 minutes). Celtic's Scottish Cup record is good (they've won it 4 times this millennium, and plenty of times before then), especially when compared with County, who before this season had never been beyond the last 16, but their defence has been particularly unconvincing of late, with Robbie Keane being relied on to get them out of trouble. This could be a close one
The Bet
90 minutes at Easter Road couldn't separate County and Hibs, and it took until the 90th minute for Scott Boyd to score the winner in the replay- it's not beyond County to force extra time here. Therefore, the draw at 11/2 with William Hill looks great value. The same bookmakers also offer odds on County's free-kick expert left-back Scott Morrison to score anytime of 66/1, as well as a wee special double with the Grand National: County to win and Beat the Boys to win the Grand National: £5 would net you £5,555. Tempting
Thursday 8 April 2010
Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 3. There'll Probably be a Part 4
This morning, the 40-horse entry list for Saturday's Grand National was confirmed. Here's a look at a few more of the contenders:
Don't Push It- confirmed this morning as the mount of Tony McCoy, who has won just about every horse race on the calendar apart from this one. McCoy is likely to have a job on his hands handling this 10-year-old, who is carrying plenty of weight. But this Jonjo O'Neill- trained horse has good recent form- don't expect him to be 33/1 for long. Has a good chance
Eric's Charm- a veteran of 12 years old, this Oliver Sherwood- trained horse has great recent form. Proven over this distance, his stamina should hold, and providing jockey Wayne Hutchinson can steer the horse through the early carnage, this old charmer, who will have less weight on than many around him, has a chance of becoming the first 12-year old winner since Amberleight House in 2004. 50/1 is well worth consideration
Don't Push It- confirmed this morning as the mount of Tony McCoy, who has won just about every horse race on the calendar apart from this one. McCoy is likely to have a job on his hands handling this 10-year-old, who is carrying plenty of weight. But this Jonjo O'Neill- trained horse has good recent form- don't expect him to be 33/1 for long. Has a good chance
Eric's Charm- a veteran of 12 years old, this Oliver Sherwood- trained horse has great recent form. Proven over this distance, his stamina should hold, and providing jockey Wayne Hutchinson can steer the horse through the early carnage, this old charmer, who will have less weight on than many around him, has a chance of becoming the first 12-year old winner since Amberleight House in 2004. 50/1 is well worth consideration
Wednesday 7 April 2010
Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 2, ken
Here's a look at a few more horses running in Saturday's Grand National:
Comply or Die- 'twas confirmed today that Timmy Murphy will be riding this 11-year-old, who fared well at Cheltenham recently, and won this race back in 2008. Recent form Cheltenham aside has been patchy, but is sure to be a factor in the race- William Hill's 22/1 is worth considering, especially as that price has shortened from 28/1 following the confirmation that Murphy will be in the saddle
Mon Mome- last year's 100/1 winner is much shorter 12/1 with totesport this time round, and that's not without good reason, as his recent form has been very impressive, including a 3rd place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Following last year's win, he knows his way around the Aintree course, and should go well, although it's a long, long time since a horse won this race 2 years running
Tricky Trickster- a sprightly young thing is this one at 7 years old. Aside from a poor performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, recent form has been good. Inexperience may count against him on such a tough, long course (his stamina at this distance has never been tested), but a potential contender- sportingbet will give you 18/1 on him
Chief Dan George- looks set to run on Saturday. This 10-year-old is carrying less weight than any of the other leading contenders, and has excellent recent form being ridden by Paddy Aspell. Has a real chance of winning, and therefore Ladbrokes' 33/1 looks a standout bet
Comply or Die- 'twas confirmed today that Timmy Murphy will be riding this 11-year-old, who fared well at Cheltenham recently, and won this race back in 2008. Recent form Cheltenham aside has been patchy, but is sure to be a factor in the race- William Hill's 22/1 is worth considering, especially as that price has shortened from 28/1 following the confirmation that Murphy will be in the saddle
Mon Mome- last year's 100/1 winner is much shorter 12/1 with totesport this time round, and that's not without good reason, as his recent form has been very impressive, including a 3rd place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Following last year's win, he knows his way around the Aintree course, and should go well, although it's a long, long time since a horse won this race 2 years running
Tricky Trickster- a sprightly young thing is this one at 7 years old. Aside from a poor performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, recent form has been good. Inexperience may count against him on such a tough, long course (his stamina at this distance has never been tested), but a potential contender- sportingbet will give you 18/1 on him
Chief Dan George- looks set to run on Saturday. This 10-year-old is carrying less weight than any of the other leading contenders, and has excellent recent form being ridden by Paddy Aspell. Has a real chance of winning, and therefore Ladbrokes' 33/1 looks a standout bet
Tuesday 6 April 2010
Shifty's Grand National Preview Part 1 of However Many It Takes
On Saturday, the biggest horse race in the UK, the Grand National, takes place, and after a disastrous Cheltenham festival, this writer will now have a crack at predicting the outcome at Aintree. Over the next few days, some of the horses that are running will be looked at, as well as a quick look at historical trends, and Shifty's tips for the race. One or two guest writers may also pop in with their say.
And they're off!
Madison Du Berlais- this horse is a particular favourite of Shifty's, having won him some money in the past (a 12/1 shot once upon a time, no less). His recent form is good, and he's a good jumper who likes to lead, therefore looking to avoid the carnage at the first few fences. Question marks over his stamina on such a long race, but looks good each-way value at 66/1 with William Hill
Ollie Magern- at 12 years old, getting on a bit now. Recent form hasn't been great, and therefore generally available quotes of 150/1 are probably about right. Unlikely to challenge
Silver Birch- won this race in 2007, but is now past his best at 13 years old. Doesn't look a potential winner on recent form, but can be counted on to make it round, although probably well short of a place. 66/1 with WIlliam Hill
Character Building- was impressive at Cheltenham (even though this writer wasn't), and is much fancied. Needs the right weather conditions and the right jockey on his back- much will depend if he is ridden by regualr jockey Dougie Costello, or if Barry Geraghty takes the ride. Currently available at 20/1 generally, but that could well change by raceday
My Will- was among the favourites last year, and delivered for each-way punters with 3rd place. Has been raced sparingly since then, so difficult to gauge where he really is. One thing we do know is that, unlike last year, he won't have Ruby Walsh on his back. Has drifted out to generally available 40/1, which is probably about right, as he is difficult to fancy strongly
Big Fella Thanks- My Will's loss looks like Big Fella Thanks' gain, as Ruby Walsh mounts this 8-year-old. Finished 6th last year, and won last time out at Newbury. Most bookies have him currently as the favourite, and rightly so. The Big Fella has a big chance of victory- totesport's 15/2 should be seriously considered
And they're off!
Madison Du Berlais- this horse is a particular favourite of Shifty's, having won him some money in the past (a 12/1 shot once upon a time, no less). His recent form is good, and he's a good jumper who likes to lead, therefore looking to avoid the carnage at the first few fences. Question marks over his stamina on such a long race, but looks good each-way value at 66/1 with William Hill
Ollie Magern- at 12 years old, getting on a bit now. Recent form hasn't been great, and therefore generally available quotes of 150/1 are probably about right. Unlikely to challenge
Silver Birch- won this race in 2007, but is now past his best at 13 years old. Doesn't look a potential winner on recent form, but can be counted on to make it round, although probably well short of a place. 66/1 with WIlliam Hill
Character Building- was impressive at Cheltenham (even though this writer wasn't), and is much fancied. Needs the right weather conditions and the right jockey on his back- much will depend if he is ridden by regualr jockey Dougie Costello, or if Barry Geraghty takes the ride. Currently available at 20/1 generally, but that could well change by raceday
My Will- was among the favourites last year, and delivered for each-way punters with 3rd place. Has been raced sparingly since then, so difficult to gauge where he really is. One thing we do know is that, unlike last year, he won't have Ruby Walsh on his back. Has drifted out to generally available 40/1, which is probably about right, as he is difficult to fancy strongly
Big Fella Thanks- My Will's loss looks like Big Fella Thanks' gain, as Ruby Walsh mounts this 8-year-old. Finished 6th last year, and won last time out at Newbury. Most bookies have him currently as the favourite, and rightly so. The Big Fella has a big chance of victory- totesport's 15/2 should be seriously considered
Friday 2 April 2010
Sunderland v Tottenham, Saturday 3rd April
My Thoughts
This looks like being one of those matches that the end of the season tends to produce- while Sunderland's tally of 35 points should be enough to keep them out of a relegation battle, Tottenham still have everything to play for, as they attempt to hold onto 4th place.
The Verdict
A run of 1 defeat in their last 6 has taken Sunderland clear of relegation trouble. However, their mid-season slump left them far too far back to consider a challenge for the UEFA Cup places- additionally, they perhaps have only 3 players in their squad looking to push for a World Cup place- therefore, Steve Bruce's men may well feel that they can take their foot off the gas in this one. Tottenham, on the other hand, will know that, with Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool (Aston Villa must now be considered out of the running for 4th place) all having very winnable games this weekend, and with Harry Redknapp's men still to face Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, 3 points at the Stadium of Light are essential. This is the sort of game that, in previous years, Tottenham would most likely have struggled in. However, this is a much-improved Tottenham team that has learned how to grind out results- witness their current 5-match winning run. It will be tight, but they are well capable of making it 6 wins in a row
The Bet
Tottenham to win outright can be backed at a best price of 23/20 with William Hill. Alternatively, it's worth playing safe with Tottenham 2X, available at a best price of 1/3 with Stan James. As previously mentioned on this blog, Darren Bent 1st scorer is, in this writer's opinion, the best value bet in the Premier League this season- it's available at 5/1 with William Hill. Now, add all these predictions together, and methinks you'd end up with a correct score of Sunderland 1 Tottenham 2- such a bet is available at 17/2 with Skybet
This looks like being one of those matches that the end of the season tends to produce- while Sunderland's tally of 35 points should be enough to keep them out of a relegation battle, Tottenham still have everything to play for, as they attempt to hold onto 4th place.
The Verdict
A run of 1 defeat in their last 6 has taken Sunderland clear of relegation trouble. However, their mid-season slump left them far too far back to consider a challenge for the UEFA Cup places- additionally, they perhaps have only 3 players in their squad looking to push for a World Cup place- therefore, Steve Bruce's men may well feel that they can take their foot off the gas in this one. Tottenham, on the other hand, will know that, with Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool (Aston Villa must now be considered out of the running for 4th place) all having very winnable games this weekend, and with Harry Redknapp's men still to face Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea, 3 points at the Stadium of Light are essential. This is the sort of game that, in previous years, Tottenham would most likely have struggled in. However, this is a much-improved Tottenham team that has learned how to grind out results- witness their current 5-match winning run. It will be tight, but they are well capable of making it 6 wins in a row
The Bet
Tottenham to win outright can be backed at a best price of 23/20 with William Hill. Alternatively, it's worth playing safe with Tottenham 2X, available at a best price of 1/3 with Stan James. As previously mentioned on this blog, Darren Bent 1st scorer is, in this writer's opinion, the best value bet in the Premier League this season- it's available at 5/1 with William Hill. Now, add all these predictions together, and methinks you'd end up with a correct score of Sunderland 1 Tottenham 2- such a bet is available at 17/2 with Skybet
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