My Thoughts
This match looks intriguing on a number of different levels: Manager of the Year v Manager of the 2nd half of the season, the best Everton side for many years with an opportunity to win a trophy, Chelsea seeking to avoid ending the season trophyless.
Let's get into those statistics. FA Cup Finals over the last 15 years have produced a total of 30 goals, an average of 2 per game- 11 of the last 15 finals have featured under 2.5 goals. Given that the two league meetings between the two sides this season both ended 0-0, a low-scoring match is a distinct possibility. In the last 15 years, Chelsea have appeared in 5 finals, winning the trophy in 1997, 2000 and 2007, despite scoring just 4 goals in those 5 final appearances. Everton's last final appearance saw them win the cup in 1995, winning 1-0.
The Verdict
All the statistics point towards a low-scoring game- Chelsea conceded just 24 league goals this season, and Tim Howard in goals for Everton equalled a club record for clean sheets. Neither side will lack motivation- Guus Hiddink will want something tangible in the form of a trophy from his work at Chelsea, and David Moyes at Everton will no doubt feel the exact same way.
However, this writer expects Chelsea, and their big-game players, to show up and edge this one. Just
The Bet
1-0 Chelsea will more than likely be a popular scoreline in various bookmakers outlets on Saturday morning, and can be backed at a best price of 6/1 with Betfred
Friday 29 May 2009
Friday 22 May 2009
Dundee United v Rangers, Sunday 24th May
My Thoughts
Something of a rarity in Scottish football has come about this season: neither of the Old Firm have managed to win at Tannadice. While it must be said that a large part of this is due to both Old Firm sides being a long way off their best this season, it is also testament to the work of Craig Levein at Dundee United, who has made his side fiercely competitive, robust, and very difficult to beat. This will not be the sort of walkover that Old Firm sides could previously expect from most SPL games, especially considering that Dundee United still need a point to confirm their Europa League place next season. In another intriguing twist, Dundee United's keeper, Lukasz Zaluska, will be playing his last game for the club on Sunday. His future employers? Celtic
The Verdict
Rangers' recent results have been good, with the exception of a 1-1 draw at Hibernian, even if performances haven't been quite what they could be. Dundee United were by all accounts disappointing in last weekend's 3-0 defeat at Hearts, and will be desperate to put in a strong performance in their last game of what has been a solid season, in order to secure a Europa League place. Given that all 3 games at Tannadice between the home side and the Old Firm have ended in draws, a 4th draw is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 10/3 with Boylesports. Alternatively, Rangers will surely need to score at some point, and in recent weeks the man they have turned to has been Nacho Novo, who can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 11/5 with Extrabet. Dundee United also rely on a Spaniard for goals- Francisco Sandaza- who can be backed at a general 3/1 to score anytime
Something of a rarity in Scottish football has come about this season: neither of the Old Firm have managed to win at Tannadice. While it must be said that a large part of this is due to both Old Firm sides being a long way off their best this season, it is also testament to the work of Craig Levein at Dundee United, who has made his side fiercely competitive, robust, and very difficult to beat. This will not be the sort of walkover that Old Firm sides could previously expect from most SPL games, especially considering that Dundee United still need a point to confirm their Europa League place next season. In another intriguing twist, Dundee United's keeper, Lukasz Zaluska, will be playing his last game for the club on Sunday. His future employers? Celtic
The Verdict
Rangers' recent results have been good, with the exception of a 1-1 draw at Hibernian, even if performances haven't been quite what they could be. Dundee United were by all accounts disappointing in last weekend's 3-0 defeat at Hearts, and will be desperate to put in a strong performance in their last game of what has been a solid season, in order to secure a Europa League place. Given that all 3 games at Tannadice between the home side and the Old Firm have ended in draws, a 4th draw is certainly not beyond the realms of possibility.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 10/3 with Boylesports. Alternatively, Rangers will surely need to score at some point, and in recent weeks the man they have turned to has been Nacho Novo, who can be backed to score anytime at a best price of 11/5 with Extrabet. Dundee United also rely on a Spaniard for goals- Francisco Sandaza- who can be backed at a general 3/1 to score anytime
Thursday 21 May 2009
Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Sunday 24th May
My Thoughts
The task for Alan Shearer's side here is simple: they must win. While Hull are just 1 point (and with an inferior goal difference) ahead, Shearer will know not to expect any favours from Sir Alex Ferguson, who will surely take a side (this writer is reluctant to use the word "weakened" to describe the side that Manchester United will field on Sunday: the likes of Darron Gibson, Danny Welbeck, Tomasz Kuszczak and Richard Eckersley would be likely starters for Hull) to the KC Stadium with 2 eyes on Rome. He will also be aware that, while an away win is required, Newcastle have managed just 2 of them this season in the Premier League. Their recent 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Middlesbrough proved something of a false dawn, followed as it was by a 1-0 defeat at home to Fulham. Not only did they lose the match, they also lost the services of centre-back (and many supporters' player of the season) Sebastien Bassong to a red card. He may not fancy Championship football next season.
Having said all that, Villa haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders of late themselves. A 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford (appreciative nod to Kiko Macheda) not only extinguished any hope Martin O'Neill's side had of Champions League football next season, but also exposed Villa as something of a long-ball outfit, reliant on the knock-downs of Carew or Heskey in order to utilise the pace of Young and Agbonlahor. They have won just once since that match. Their home record this season (6-9-3) does leave a lot to be desired, and will need to be improved upon next season if they are to break into the top 4. Villa were poor in both their last 2 games, only claiming a point against Middlesbrough due to some woeful defending. Their season is very much ending with something of a whimper, the lack of depth in their squad having been exposed.
The Verdict
Newcastle have managed only 3 clean sheets away from home this season. It gets worse- all 3 of those were kept by Shay Given. However, at this stage of the season, it would be folly to get too bogged down by statistics. Instead, this match will require Newcastle's players to be brave, to show character, and to have quality to take any chances that may come their way. The side will be well aware that they have massively underachieved this season, and now must pull off a result here to ensure this season is a disappointment, not a disaster. They might just do it.
The Bet
Newcastle can be backed at 6/4 to stay up with Skybet. There is just about enough quality in the side to get a result against an out-of-sorts Aston Villa side. In terms of the match itself, Newcastle can be backed at a best price of 11/5 to win with extrabet. Now let's hope theses prices stay where they are, after the massive pre-match movements on the prices last night
The task for Alan Shearer's side here is simple: they must win. While Hull are just 1 point (and with an inferior goal difference) ahead, Shearer will know not to expect any favours from Sir Alex Ferguson, who will surely take a side (this writer is reluctant to use the word "weakened" to describe the side that Manchester United will field on Sunday: the likes of Darron Gibson, Danny Welbeck, Tomasz Kuszczak and Richard Eckersley would be likely starters for Hull) to the KC Stadium with 2 eyes on Rome. He will also be aware that, while an away win is required, Newcastle have managed just 2 of them this season in the Premier League. Their recent 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Middlesbrough proved something of a false dawn, followed as it was by a 1-0 defeat at home to Fulham. Not only did they lose the match, they also lost the services of centre-back (and many supporters' player of the season) Sebastien Bassong to a red card. He may not fancy Championship football next season.
Having said all that, Villa haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders of late themselves. A 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford (appreciative nod to Kiko Macheda) not only extinguished any hope Martin O'Neill's side had of Champions League football next season, but also exposed Villa as something of a long-ball outfit, reliant on the knock-downs of Carew or Heskey in order to utilise the pace of Young and Agbonlahor. They have won just once since that match. Their home record this season (6-9-3) does leave a lot to be desired, and will need to be improved upon next season if they are to break into the top 4. Villa were poor in both their last 2 games, only claiming a point against Middlesbrough due to some woeful defending. Their season is very much ending with something of a whimper, the lack of depth in their squad having been exposed.
The Verdict
Newcastle have managed only 3 clean sheets away from home this season. It gets worse- all 3 of those were kept by Shay Given. However, at this stage of the season, it would be folly to get too bogged down by statistics. Instead, this match will require Newcastle's players to be brave, to show character, and to have quality to take any chances that may come their way. The side will be well aware that they have massively underachieved this season, and now must pull off a result here to ensure this season is a disappointment, not a disaster. They might just do it.
The Bet
Newcastle can be backed at 6/4 to stay up with Skybet. There is just about enough quality in the side to get a result against an out-of-sorts Aston Villa side. In terms of the match itself, Newcastle can be backed at a best price of 11/5 to win with extrabet. Now let's hope theses prices stay where they are, after the massive pre-match movements on the prices last night
Tuesday 19 May 2009
Shakhtar Donetsk v Werder Bremen, UEFA Cup Final, Wednesday 20th May
My Thoughts
(apologies if I mis-spell Shakhtar at any point)
This new-fangled Europa League which is set to replace the UEFA Cup has a lot to live up to: one of the glorious things about the UEFA Cup is that it is absolutely impossible to pick a winner- kudos to you if you put money on either of these sides making the final this year back in September. With the UEFA Cup coming to an end, both these sides want to be the last team to get their name on the trophy (kudos to anyone who can tell me how many different winners there have previously been of the UEFA Cup). Werder Bremen will be looking to add to the Cup Winners Cup they won in 1992 (beating Monaco in the final, who were managed by a certain Arsene Wenger), while for Shakhtar Donetsk the final in Istanbul represents their first appearance in a European final, as they look to continue the Soviet revolution that has swept through the UEFA Cup in recent years: CSKA Moscow winners in 2005 and Zenit St Petersburg in 2008 both won the huge (in size if not status) trophy, and Shakhtar themselves took care of both Dinamo Kyiv and CSKA Moscow en route to Istanbul.
Recent UEFA Cup finals, with the exception of last year's final, where a Rangers side Karl Rappan would have found eye-watering were defeated by Andriy Arshavin, do tend to be excellent games- witness Sevilla in 2006 and 2007, CSKA's stunning 2nd half comeback in Lisbon in 2005, and the end-to-end ding-dongs served up in 2001, 2002 and 2003.
Both managers are expecting a tough, exciting match. Mircea Lucescu, Shakhtar boss: "Bremen are always attack-minded, they are a very physical team. Our style is based on our skill". Thomas Schaaf, Werder boss: "We have to be assertive. It will be a hot match but a final is never easy".
Werder travel to Istanbul with a number of key players missing, most notably suspended Brazilian playmater Diego, scorer of 6 of their 15 UEFA Cup goals this season, although also missing are Portuguese forward Hugo Almeida, giant centre-back Per Mertesacker (set to be replaced by the equally giant Sebastian Prodl) and doubts remain over the fitness of captain Frank Baumann. Shakhtar are almost at full-strength, with only midfield anchorman Tomas Hubschmann suspended. Polish international Mariusz Lewandowski is set to replace him, and will be tasked with monitoring Bremen's main playmaker in the absence of Diego, Mesut Ozil.
From a purely statistical standpoint, Shakhtar have the edge. In their European campaign, they have scored 23 goals (an average of 1.64 per game) compared to Bremen's 22 (1.57 per game) and conceded 12 (0.86 per game) compared to Bremen's 21 (1.5 per game). Having said that, there is no doubting Bremen's ability to attack, create chances and score goals, but it remains to be seen how much the loss of Diego and Almeida will harm their chances, given the slightly pourous nature of their defence, which was further exposed in a 3-1 home defeat against Karlsruhe at the weekend.
The Verdict
This should be an entertaining game. Both sides are well capable of scoring goals (Bremen have scored 3 times in 3 of their last 4 UEFA Cup games, while Shakhtar's frontline consisting of a number of talented Brazilians along with local lad Olexander Gladkiy can be relied on to score), and, as Lucescu hinted, there is something of a clash in styles between the two sides. This one might just require extra time, after something of a goalfest in 90 minutes, but, on paper at least, Shakhtar may just have the edge.
The Bet
This pundit must confess to being somewhat mystified by certain bookmakers awarding favouritism to Bremen. Shakhtar are still available at 9/5 to win with Betfred, but move quickly- a number of bookmakers are shortening Shakhtar as I write this. It's also well worth looking at over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Stan James. Also, without Diego and Almeida, even more emphasis will be placed on Claudio Pizarro to produce upfron for Bremen. He's available at 2/1 with William Hill to score anytime
(apologies if I mis-spell Shakhtar at any point)
This new-fangled Europa League which is set to replace the UEFA Cup has a lot to live up to: one of the glorious things about the UEFA Cup is that it is absolutely impossible to pick a winner- kudos to you if you put money on either of these sides making the final this year back in September. With the UEFA Cup coming to an end, both these sides want to be the last team to get their name on the trophy (kudos to anyone who can tell me how many different winners there have previously been of the UEFA Cup). Werder Bremen will be looking to add to the Cup Winners Cup they won in 1992 (beating Monaco in the final, who were managed by a certain Arsene Wenger), while for Shakhtar Donetsk the final in Istanbul represents their first appearance in a European final, as they look to continue the Soviet revolution that has swept through the UEFA Cup in recent years: CSKA Moscow winners in 2005 and Zenit St Petersburg in 2008 both won the huge (in size if not status) trophy, and Shakhtar themselves took care of both Dinamo Kyiv and CSKA Moscow en route to Istanbul.
Recent UEFA Cup finals, with the exception of last year's final, where a Rangers side Karl Rappan would have found eye-watering were defeated by Andriy Arshavin, do tend to be excellent games- witness Sevilla in 2006 and 2007, CSKA's stunning 2nd half comeback in Lisbon in 2005, and the end-to-end ding-dongs served up in 2001, 2002 and 2003.
Both managers are expecting a tough, exciting match. Mircea Lucescu, Shakhtar boss: "Bremen are always attack-minded, they are a very physical team. Our style is based on our skill". Thomas Schaaf, Werder boss: "We have to be assertive. It will be a hot match but a final is never easy".
Werder travel to Istanbul with a number of key players missing, most notably suspended Brazilian playmater Diego, scorer of 6 of their 15 UEFA Cup goals this season, although also missing are Portuguese forward Hugo Almeida, giant centre-back Per Mertesacker (set to be replaced by the equally giant Sebastian Prodl) and doubts remain over the fitness of captain Frank Baumann. Shakhtar are almost at full-strength, with only midfield anchorman Tomas Hubschmann suspended. Polish international Mariusz Lewandowski is set to replace him, and will be tasked with monitoring Bremen's main playmaker in the absence of Diego, Mesut Ozil.
From a purely statistical standpoint, Shakhtar have the edge. In their European campaign, they have scored 23 goals (an average of 1.64 per game) compared to Bremen's 22 (1.57 per game) and conceded 12 (0.86 per game) compared to Bremen's 21 (1.5 per game). Having said that, there is no doubting Bremen's ability to attack, create chances and score goals, but it remains to be seen how much the loss of Diego and Almeida will harm their chances, given the slightly pourous nature of their defence, which was further exposed in a 3-1 home defeat against Karlsruhe at the weekend.
The Verdict
This should be an entertaining game. Both sides are well capable of scoring goals (Bremen have scored 3 times in 3 of their last 4 UEFA Cup games, while Shakhtar's frontline consisting of a number of talented Brazilians along with local lad Olexander Gladkiy can be relied on to score), and, as Lucescu hinted, there is something of a clash in styles between the two sides. This one might just require extra time, after something of a goalfest in 90 minutes, but, on paper at least, Shakhtar may just have the edge.
The Bet
This pundit must confess to being somewhat mystified by certain bookmakers awarding favouritism to Bremen. Shakhtar are still available at 9/5 to win with Betfred, but move quickly- a number of bookmakers are shortening Shakhtar as I write this. It's also well worth looking at over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Stan James. Also, without Diego and Almeida, even more emphasis will be placed on Claudio Pizarro to produce upfron for Bremen. He's available at 2/1 with William Hill to score anytime
Saturday 16 May 2009
Hoffenheim v Bayern Munchen, Saturday 16th May
My Thoughts
First, let this writer apologise for the lack of work on here this weekend- it's exam time.
When these two sides met in December, Hoffenheim went into the game at the Allianz Arena knowing whatever the result, they would top the Bundesliga at the halfway stage. A titanic battle ensued- Hoffenheim taking the lead through Vedad Ibisevic, before a Bayern comeback resulting in a late winner for Luca Toni. A horrible slump in form after Christmas, which was not helped by the loss of Ibisevic to a knee injury, has resulted in Hoffenheim falling out of contention even for a Europa League place, however a mini-revival has seen them win their last 2 games and move up to 7th place. Bayern, who have re-appointed Jupp Heynckes following the dismissal of Jurgen Klinsmann and his Buddha statues (no, really) are still very much in contention for the Bundeslinga, and will be desperate for 3 points. Heynckes has won all 3 of his matches in charge so far, and will know that another 2 wins are vital if his team are to triumph.
The Verdict
Hoffenheim may well have rediscovered ther mojo in their last 2 games, however Bayern may well prove too strong here. Away win
The Bet
Bayern are a best-price 4/7 with extrabet to win- very poor value in this writer's opinion. Alternatively, Lukas Podolski seems to be rediscovering his form under Heynckes. He can be backed at 13/10 with expekt.com to score anytime
First, let this writer apologise for the lack of work on here this weekend- it's exam time.
When these two sides met in December, Hoffenheim went into the game at the Allianz Arena knowing whatever the result, they would top the Bundesliga at the halfway stage. A titanic battle ensued- Hoffenheim taking the lead through Vedad Ibisevic, before a Bayern comeback resulting in a late winner for Luca Toni. A horrible slump in form after Christmas, which was not helped by the loss of Ibisevic to a knee injury, has resulted in Hoffenheim falling out of contention even for a Europa League place, however a mini-revival has seen them win their last 2 games and move up to 7th place. Bayern, who have re-appointed Jupp Heynckes following the dismissal of Jurgen Klinsmann and his Buddha statues (no, really) are still very much in contention for the Bundeslinga, and will be desperate for 3 points. Heynckes has won all 3 of his matches in charge so far, and will know that another 2 wins are vital if his team are to triumph.
The Verdict
Hoffenheim may well have rediscovered ther mojo in their last 2 games, however Bayern may well prove too strong here. Away win
The Bet
Bayern are a best-price 4/7 with extrabet to win- very poor value in this writer's opinion. Alternatively, Lukas Podolski seems to be rediscovering his form under Heynckes. He can be backed at 13/10 with expekt.com to score anytime
Saturday 9 May 2009
And that was the weekend...
Turns out I was mad backing Real Madrid. Anyway, here's a round-up of how my selections got on, usual rules apply:
Blackburn to win @ 21/20 - 1 unit returns 2.05
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 - 1 unit returns 1.73 (boy was I glad John Utaka skied that late penalty)
Stuttgart to win @ 13/10 - 1 unit returns 2.3
Mario Gomez to score @ 15/8 - 1 unit returns 2.88
Bolton v Sunderland draw @ 12/5 - 1 unit returns 3.4
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - 1 unit returns 1.67
Real Madrid to win @ 2/1 - 1 unit returns 0
David Villa to score @ 6/4 - 1 unit returns 0
Gonzalo Higuain to score @ 23/10 - 1 unit returns 0
Hertha Berlin to win @ 6/10 - 1 unit returns 1.6
Total outlay: 10 units
Total return: 15.63 units
Total profit: 5.63 units
Return / outlay: 156.3%
That's more like it. Next weekend's games will appear in dribs and drabs from Wednesday onwards
Blackburn to win @ 21/20 - 1 unit returns 2.05
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 - 1 unit returns 1.73 (boy was I glad John Utaka skied that late penalty)
Stuttgart to win @ 13/10 - 1 unit returns 2.3
Mario Gomez to score @ 15/8 - 1 unit returns 2.88
Bolton v Sunderland draw @ 12/5 - 1 unit returns 3.4
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - 1 unit returns 1.67
Real Madrid to win @ 2/1 - 1 unit returns 0
David Villa to score @ 6/4 - 1 unit returns 0
Gonzalo Higuain to score @ 23/10 - 1 unit returns 0
Hertha Berlin to win @ 6/10 - 1 unit returns 1.6
Total outlay: 10 units
Total return: 15.63 units
Total profit: 5.63 units
Return / outlay: 156.3%
That's more like it. Next weekend's games will appear in dribs and drabs from Wednesday onwards
Hertha Berlin v Bochum, Saturday 9th May
My Thoughts
Hertha Berlin still have a real chance of clinching the Bundesliga title, while Bochum, after losing their last 3, are still in a relegation scrap. Hertha's home record (11-2-2) is good, supported by a strong defence marshalled by experienced heads such as Josip Simunic, Arne Friedrich and Steve von Bergen, with on-loan Liverpool forward Andriy Voronin their top scorer in attack with 11 league goals. Hertha don't concede many at home- just 14 in 15 league games this season, an average of 0.93 per game. Bochum currently find themselves just 1 point above the relegation zone. They have managed just 2 away wins all season, although they have taken 8 points from their last 5 away games, although their recent 2-0 loss at home to local rivals Borussia Dortmund, themselves still in with half a chance of the Bundesliga title, will have hurt. The reverse fixture earlier this season ended in a 3-2 win to Hertha Berlin, who have generally had the edge in these fixtures.
The Verdict
Lucien Favre's Hertha Berlin side have surprised many observers by maintaining their title challenge this long- they are difficult to beat, and in Andriy Voronin have a striker capable of scoring- in only 1 home game this season have they failed to score. Bochum, on the other hand, have only kept 2 clean sheets away from home this season. Home win
The Bet
Hertha Berlin can be backed to win at a best price of 6/10 with Blue Square
Hertha Berlin still have a real chance of clinching the Bundesliga title, while Bochum, after losing their last 3, are still in a relegation scrap. Hertha's home record (11-2-2) is good, supported by a strong defence marshalled by experienced heads such as Josip Simunic, Arne Friedrich and Steve von Bergen, with on-loan Liverpool forward Andriy Voronin their top scorer in attack with 11 league goals. Hertha don't concede many at home- just 14 in 15 league games this season, an average of 0.93 per game. Bochum currently find themselves just 1 point above the relegation zone. They have managed just 2 away wins all season, although they have taken 8 points from their last 5 away games, although their recent 2-0 loss at home to local rivals Borussia Dortmund, themselves still in with half a chance of the Bundesliga title, will have hurt. The reverse fixture earlier this season ended in a 3-2 win to Hertha Berlin, who have generally had the edge in these fixtures.
The Verdict
Lucien Favre's Hertha Berlin side have surprised many observers by maintaining their title challenge this long- they are difficult to beat, and in Andriy Voronin have a striker capable of scoring- in only 1 home game this season have they failed to score. Bochum, on the other hand, have only kept 2 clean sheets away from home this season. Home win
The Bet
Hertha Berlin can be backed to win at a best price of 6/10 with Blue Square
Friday 8 May 2009
Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 9th May
My Thoughts
Confidence. A water-tight defence. Two good full-backs. A quality central midfield. Balance.
Judging by last Saturday's 6-2 (going on 26-2) horsing by Barcelona, the above is a list of things that Real Madrid do not currently have. Now they must pick themselves off the floor and travel to the Mestalla, to face a Valencia side scrapping it out for a top 3 finish. Valencia's resurgence this season is in no small part due to the goalscoring exploits of David Villa- only Samuel Eto'o has managed more than his 25 league goals this season. A mention also for midfielder Juan Manuel Mata, who has chipped in with another 10. Valencia's strong form this season is based more on attack than defence- while their goals for tally of 62 is the 4th best in La Liga, they only have the 9th best defence, with 50 goals conceded in La Liga this season. This writer will now, however, avoid going into detail about Real's stats. For them, the mission is simple: they simply MUST pick themselves up after last Saturday and win to maintain any sort of pressure on Barcelona: after their previous defeat to Barcelona (2-0 in the Camp Nou) they went unbeaten in La Liga until last Saturday, winning 17 and drawing 1 out of 18 games. A similar run is needed between now and the end of the season if they are to pull off an improbable victory.
The Verdict
This is an extremely difficult one to call. Valencia have not kept a clean sheet in 6 games, and only Barcelona have scored more (21 more, mind) than Real Madrid this season, so Juande Ramos' side will be hopeful of scoring: however, it's shutting David Villa and co out that will prove to be problematic. Real's record in the Mestalla is good, however, and they did win the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season. Games between the 2 sides have also tended to be slightly lower-scoring affairs. Some may feel that this writer is mad (not without justification, too) to back Real, but they are still capable of scoring Real to edge it. Just
The Bet
Real can be backed outright at 2/1 with Bet365. Alternatively, there are numerous tempting options on the anytime goalscorer front. Have a look at David Villa (best price 6/4 with Coral), Gonzalo Higuain (23/10 Boylesports) and Raul (11/5 Boylesports), although it might be an idea to wait until teamsheets are announced before backing anyone- it's not beyond the realms of possibility Madrid could go for a more defensive approach in the Mestalla.
Confidence. A water-tight defence. Two good full-backs. A quality central midfield. Balance.
Judging by last Saturday's 6-2 (going on 26-2) horsing by Barcelona, the above is a list of things that Real Madrid do not currently have. Now they must pick themselves off the floor and travel to the Mestalla, to face a Valencia side scrapping it out for a top 3 finish. Valencia's resurgence this season is in no small part due to the goalscoring exploits of David Villa- only Samuel Eto'o has managed more than his 25 league goals this season. A mention also for midfielder Juan Manuel Mata, who has chipped in with another 10. Valencia's strong form this season is based more on attack than defence- while their goals for tally of 62 is the 4th best in La Liga, they only have the 9th best defence, with 50 goals conceded in La Liga this season. This writer will now, however, avoid going into detail about Real's stats. For them, the mission is simple: they simply MUST pick themselves up after last Saturday and win to maintain any sort of pressure on Barcelona: after their previous defeat to Barcelona (2-0 in the Camp Nou) they went unbeaten in La Liga until last Saturday, winning 17 and drawing 1 out of 18 games. A similar run is needed between now and the end of the season if they are to pull off an improbable victory.
The Verdict
This is an extremely difficult one to call. Valencia have not kept a clean sheet in 6 games, and only Barcelona have scored more (21 more, mind) than Real Madrid this season, so Juande Ramos' side will be hopeful of scoring: however, it's shutting David Villa and co out that will prove to be problematic. Real's record in the Mestalla is good, however, and they did win the reverse fixture 1-0 earlier this season. Games between the 2 sides have also tended to be slightly lower-scoring affairs. Some may feel that this writer is mad (not without justification, too) to back Real, but they are still capable of scoring Real to edge it. Just
The Bet
Real can be backed outright at 2/1 with Bet365. Alternatively, there are numerous tempting options on the anytime goalscorer front. Have a look at David Villa (best price 6/4 with Coral), Gonzalo Higuain (23/10 Boylesports) and Raul (11/5 Boylesports), although it might be an idea to wait until teamsheets are announced before backing anyone- it's not beyond the realms of possibility Madrid could go for a more defensive approach in the Mestalla.
Bolton Wanderers v Sunderland, Saturday 9th May
My Thoughts
Bolton are, to all intents and purposes, safe. 39 points on the board with 3 games to go, Gary Megson's side can probably start planning their summer holidays safe in the knowledge that another season in the top flight is forthcoming. The same cannot be said for Sunderland, who, despite a recent 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Hull City, are still in big trouble, and probably deserve to be, given their recent form. The Black Cats have managed just 3 wins away from the Stadium of Light this season, and go to the Reebok Stadium on Saturday knowing that only Manchester United and Fulham have won there since January. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw a 4-1 victory for Bolton which was also Roy Keane's last game in charge. Ricky Sbragia takes Sunderland to the Reebok Stadium knowing that his job as well is not 100% secure. With the exception of the reverse fixture, meetings between these 2 sides have tended to be low-scoring affairs. With Bolton needing just 1 point to mathematically secure top-flight football next season, and a poor Sunderland side desperate for any kind of result, this writer won't be expecting a free-flowing goalfest.
The Verdict
It's difficult to see this being a high-scoring game. In 17 home games this season, Bolton have scored 20 goals (averaging 1.17 per game) and condeded 20. Sunderland have managed to score just 12 goals in 17 away games (averaging 0.70 per game), and have conceded 26 (averaging 1.52 per game). With neither side in particularly great form, I'd be thinking a draw here.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 12/5 with Boylesports (who also happen to be Sunderland's shirt sponsors). Alternatively, have a look at under 2.5 goals available at a general 4/6
Bolton are, to all intents and purposes, safe. 39 points on the board with 3 games to go, Gary Megson's side can probably start planning their summer holidays safe in the knowledge that another season in the top flight is forthcoming. The same cannot be said for Sunderland, who, despite a recent 1-0 victory over fellow strugglers Hull City, are still in big trouble, and probably deserve to be, given their recent form. The Black Cats have managed just 3 wins away from the Stadium of Light this season, and go to the Reebok Stadium on Saturday knowing that only Manchester United and Fulham have won there since January. The reverse fixture earlier this season saw a 4-1 victory for Bolton which was also Roy Keane's last game in charge. Ricky Sbragia takes Sunderland to the Reebok Stadium knowing that his job as well is not 100% secure. With the exception of the reverse fixture, meetings between these 2 sides have tended to be low-scoring affairs. With Bolton needing just 1 point to mathematically secure top-flight football next season, and a poor Sunderland side desperate for any kind of result, this writer won't be expecting a free-flowing goalfest.
The Verdict
It's difficult to see this being a high-scoring game. In 17 home games this season, Bolton have scored 20 goals (averaging 1.17 per game) and condeded 20. Sunderland have managed to score just 12 goals in 17 away games (averaging 0.70 per game), and have conceded 26 (averaging 1.52 per game). With neither side in particularly great form, I'd be thinking a draw here.
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 12/5 with Boylesports (who also happen to be Sunderland's shirt sponsors). Alternatively, have a look at under 2.5 goals available at a general 4/6
Stuttgart v Wolfsburg, Saturday 9th May
My Thoughts
After going on a storming run since January to move to the top of the Bundesliga, Wolfsburg all of a sudden look ever so slightly vulnerable; a 2-0 loss 2 weeks ago away to struggling Energie Cottbus was this week followed by the news that manager Felix Magath will be leaving the club this summer, possibly to join Schalke 04. Many readers of this blog may remember Stuttgart's stunning run from nowhere to clinch the Bundesliga title in 2007: given the supremely tight nature of the top, it would be foolish to rule out Markus Babbel's side- unbeaten in 6, and just 5 points behind Wolfsburg. Stuttgart have been pretty good at home this season: their record reads 10-3-2. Wolfsburg's recent run has been built mainly on excellent home form, along with the goals of Grafite: their away form (4-5-6) however is not exactly championship-winning stuff.
The Verdict
Expect an entertaining game high on quality. It remains to be seen what sort of impact, if any, the news of Magath's impending departure will have on Wolfsburg, a team who were never expected to be challenging for the title in the first place. With striker Mario Gomez rediscovering his form, I reckon Stuttgart will edge this one. Home win
The Bet
Stuttgart can be backed at a best price of 13/10 with Stan James. Alternatively, Mario Gomez to score anytime is available at 15/8 with Boylesports
After going on a storming run since January to move to the top of the Bundesliga, Wolfsburg all of a sudden look ever so slightly vulnerable; a 2-0 loss 2 weeks ago away to struggling Energie Cottbus was this week followed by the news that manager Felix Magath will be leaving the club this summer, possibly to join Schalke 04. Many readers of this blog may remember Stuttgart's stunning run from nowhere to clinch the Bundesliga title in 2007: given the supremely tight nature of the top, it would be foolish to rule out Markus Babbel's side- unbeaten in 6, and just 5 points behind Wolfsburg. Stuttgart have been pretty good at home this season: their record reads 10-3-2. Wolfsburg's recent run has been built mainly on excellent home form, along with the goals of Grafite: their away form (4-5-6) however is not exactly championship-winning stuff.
The Verdict
Expect an entertaining game high on quality. It remains to be seen what sort of impact, if any, the news of Magath's impending departure will have on Wolfsburg, a team who were never expected to be challenging for the title in the first place. With striker Mario Gomez rediscovering his form, I reckon Stuttgart will edge this one. Home win
The Bet
Stuttgart can be backed at a best price of 13/10 with Stan James. Alternatively, Mario Gomez to score anytime is available at 15/8 with Boylesports
Wednesday 6 May 2009
Blackburn Rovers v Portsmouth, Saturday 9th May
My Thoughts
Two sides here who probably should be just about safe, but aren't quite there yet. Should either side emerge with all 3 points at Ewood Park on Saturday, however, then they can surely be confident of avoiding league away trips to Plymouth, Barnsley and Peterborough next season. Under Sam Allardyce, Blackburn have undergone something of a revolution, becoming a side who are (usually) tough to beat, if not exactly aesthetically pleasing, however this writer will refrain from that debate for another day. Portsmouth are not too different, with Paul Hart's appointment as caretaker manager coinciding with an improvement in form, although away from Fratton Park they have not won since November, a 2-1 victory at Sunderland 1 of only 2 away wins all season, although it remains to be seen how much pressure their backline will face should Sam Allardyce continue his "Christopher Samba as a centre-forward" experiment.
The Verdict
Both sides know that a win here should all but confirm their Premier League status- however, given Portsmouth's poor away form, and Rovers' new-found solidity under Allardyce, I fancy Blackburn to edge this one.
The Bet
Rovers can be backed at a best price of 21/20 with Paddy Power. Alternatively, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look at a general 8/11
Two sides here who probably should be just about safe, but aren't quite there yet. Should either side emerge with all 3 points at Ewood Park on Saturday, however, then they can surely be confident of avoiding league away trips to Plymouth, Barnsley and Peterborough next season. Under Sam Allardyce, Blackburn have undergone something of a revolution, becoming a side who are (usually) tough to beat, if not exactly aesthetically pleasing, however this writer will refrain from that debate for another day. Portsmouth are not too different, with Paul Hart's appointment as caretaker manager coinciding with an improvement in form, although away from Fratton Park they have not won since November, a 2-1 victory at Sunderland 1 of only 2 away wins all season, although it remains to be seen how much pressure their backline will face should Sam Allardyce continue his "Christopher Samba as a centre-forward" experiment.
The Verdict
Both sides know that a win here should all but confirm their Premier League status- however, given Portsmouth's poor away form, and Rovers' new-found solidity under Allardyce, I fancy Blackburn to edge this one.
The Bet
Rovers can be backed at a best price of 21/20 with Paddy Power. Alternatively, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look at a general 8/11
Monday 4 May 2009
And that was the weekend....
Here's the review of the weekend's betting tips, usual protocol, 1 unit on each price quoted:
Wolfsburg to win @ 6/11 - 1 unit returns 1.55
Over 3.5 goals @ 6/4 - 1 unit returns 2.5
Mallorca to win @ 15/13 - 1 unit returns 2.15
Over 2.5 goals (unfortunately I didn't put up a price on this one, but it would generally be around about the evens mark)- 1 unit returns 2
Middlesbrough- Man Utd draw @ 16/5 - 1 unit returns 0
Paul Scholes to score @ 11/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Red card @ 13/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Real Madrid v Barcelona draw @ 5/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Over 2.5 goals @ 8/15 - 1 unit returns 1.53
Total outlay: 9 units
Total return: 9.73 units
Total profit: 0.73 units
Return/ Outlay: 108%
Not quite the same level of return as last week, but still profitable. I'll get next weekend's fixtures written up over the course of this week, feel free to request any games
Wolfsburg to win @ 6/11 - 1 unit returns 1.55
Over 3.5 goals @ 6/4 - 1 unit returns 2.5
Mallorca to win @ 15/13 - 1 unit returns 2.15
Over 2.5 goals (unfortunately I didn't put up a price on this one, but it would generally be around about the evens mark)- 1 unit returns 2
Middlesbrough- Man Utd draw @ 16/5 - 1 unit returns 0
Paul Scholes to score @ 11/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Red card @ 13/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Real Madrid v Barcelona draw @ 5/2 - 1 unit returns 0
Over 2.5 goals @ 8/15 - 1 unit returns 1.53
Total outlay: 9 units
Total return: 9.73 units
Total profit: 0.73 units
Return/ Outlay: 108%
Not quite the same level of return as last week, but still profitable. I'll get next weekend's fixtures written up over the course of this week, feel free to request any games
Saturday 2 May 2009
Real Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 2nd May
My Thoughts
There is no point in this writer eulogising about the impact Juande Ramos has had on Real Madrid; instead, I will simply present the following statistic: since losing 2-0 in the reverse match in Ramos' first match in charge in December, Real's league record is as follows: played 18, won 17, drawn 1, lost 0. This has led to, all of a sudden, there actually being a title race in La Liga this season, after looking like the league was going to be a walk in the park for Pep Guardiola's team, who have scored un utterly ridiculous 94 league goals so far this season. Real themselves, however, have not been shy in front of goal, themselves with 77 league goals so far this season, aided in no small part by the evergreen Raul, along with emerging superstars such as Gonzalo Higuain and Klass-Jan Huntelaar. With Barca losing centre-back Rafael Marquez for the rest of the season due to a knee injury suffered against Chelsea on Tuesday, this could be another high-scoring encounter.
The Verdict
Despite drawing their last 2 matches in all competitions, Barcelona are still very much the team to beat both domestically and in European competition. However, with the standards that the side set for themselves earlier this season being so high, it is inevitable that 2 draws will lead to suggestions that the Barca high-speed locomotive may have come off the rails. The technical ability of the side has never been in question: tonight, we'll see if they have the cojones to go with it. I reckon this could be a peach of a game, befitting of its clasico moniker. Score draw
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 5/2 with Stan James. Alternatively, the over 2.5 goals market can be backed at a general 8/15.
There is no point in this writer eulogising about the impact Juande Ramos has had on Real Madrid; instead, I will simply present the following statistic: since losing 2-0 in the reverse match in Ramos' first match in charge in December, Real's league record is as follows: played 18, won 17, drawn 1, lost 0. This has led to, all of a sudden, there actually being a title race in La Liga this season, after looking like the league was going to be a walk in the park for Pep Guardiola's team, who have scored un utterly ridiculous 94 league goals so far this season. Real themselves, however, have not been shy in front of goal, themselves with 77 league goals so far this season, aided in no small part by the evergreen Raul, along with emerging superstars such as Gonzalo Higuain and Klass-Jan Huntelaar. With Barca losing centre-back Rafael Marquez for the rest of the season due to a knee injury suffered against Chelsea on Tuesday, this could be another high-scoring encounter.
The Verdict
Despite drawing their last 2 matches in all competitions, Barcelona are still very much the team to beat both domestically and in European competition. However, with the standards that the side set for themselves earlier this season being so high, it is inevitable that 2 draws will lead to suggestions that the Barca high-speed locomotive may have come off the rails. The technical ability of the side has never been in question: tonight, we'll see if they have the cojones to go with it. I reckon this could be a peach of a game, befitting of its clasico moniker. Score draw
The Bet
The draw can be backed at a best price of 5/2 with Stan James. Alternatively, the over 2.5 goals market can be backed at a general 8/15.
Friday 1 May 2009
Middlesbrough v Manchester United, Saturday 2nd May
My Thoughts
Much of this game may well depend on how strong a team Sir Alex Ferguson picks for this game. With Tuesday's game at Arsenal in mind, United are likely to make wholesale changes for the trip to the Riverside, with the United boss hinting at roles for the likes of Park Ji-Sung, Nani, Paul Scholes, Darron Gibson and Federico Macheda. Jonny Evans is also likely to come in for Rio Ferdinand, who sustained a rib injury against Arsenal on Wednesday, and Wesley Brown may well be on the bench, having completed 90 minutes for the Reserves on Thursday. Expect United's line-up to look something like this:
Middlesbrough, while still very much in a relegation scrap, have at least shown signs of life in recent home games, managing a 3-1 victory over fellow strugglers Hull, and were unfortunate to claim only 1 point against Fulham, having created numerous chances. Middlesbrough's record against United is actually quite respectable, with United only winning on 3 of their last 6 trips to the Riverside. With Middlesbrough fighting for their lives, and the possibility of a much-changed (I avoid using the word "weakened" because, even if there are wholesale changes, the players United bring in will all still be accomplished performers at Premier League level) away team, surely Boro will have a chance to get something here.
The Verdict
If Middlesbrough can maintain their decent home form (which has seen them beat fellow title challengers Liverpool at the Riverside) then, against a United side with one eye on Tuesday, they could get something here. Draw
The Bet
The draw can be backed at 16/5 with William Hill. Avoid backing any potential United scorers until the teams are published, but Paul Scholes would appear to have a strong chance of playing. He can be backed at 11/2 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Also, for a bit of fun, a red card can be backed at 13/2 with Paddy Power
Much of this game may well depend on how strong a team Sir Alex Ferguson picks for this game. With Tuesday's game at Arsenal in mind, United are likely to make wholesale changes for the trip to the Riverside, with the United boss hinting at roles for the likes of Park Ji-Sung, Nani, Paul Scholes, Darron Gibson and Federico Macheda. Jonny Evans is also likely to come in for Rio Ferdinand, who sustained a rib injury against Arsenal on Wednesday, and Wesley Brown may well be on the bench, having completed 90 minutes for the Reserves on Thursday. Expect United's line-up to look something like this:
Foster
O'Shea Evans Vidic Evra
Nani Scholes Gibson Park
Berbatov Macheda
Middlesbrough, while still very much in a relegation scrap, have at least shown signs of life in recent home games, managing a 3-1 victory over fellow strugglers Hull, and were unfortunate to claim only 1 point against Fulham, having created numerous chances. Middlesbrough's record against United is actually quite respectable, with United only winning on 3 of their last 6 trips to the Riverside. With Middlesbrough fighting for their lives, and the possibility of a much-changed (I avoid using the word "weakened" because, even if there are wholesale changes, the players United bring in will all still be accomplished performers at Premier League level) away team, surely Boro will have a chance to get something here.
The Verdict
If Middlesbrough can maintain their decent home form (which has seen them beat fellow title challengers Liverpool at the Riverside) then, against a United side with one eye on Tuesday, they could get something here. Draw
The Bet
The draw can be backed at 16/5 with William Hill. Avoid backing any potential United scorers until the teams are published, but Paul Scholes would appear to have a strong chance of playing. He can be backed at 11/2 with Paddy Power to score anytime. Also, for a bit of fun, a red card can be backed at 13/2 with Paddy Power
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