FIFPRO World XI Shortlist

Evening folks.

So, that FIFPRO World XI Shortlist, eh? This writer is of the opinion that it's an absolute joke. There are some players on the list who simply should not be there for 2011, while there are some glaring omissions. So many glaring omissions, in fact, that I reckon you could put together a pretty decent team out of them. Here goes:

GK: David De Gea (Man Utd, Spain U21)
RB: Maxi Pereira (Benfica, Uruguay)
CB: Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
CB: Adil Rami (Valencia, France)
LB: Fabio Coentrao (Real Madrid, Portugal)
DM: Diego Perez (Bologna, Uruguay)
CM: Toni Kroos (Bayern Munchen, Germany)
AMR: Mario Gotze (Borussia Dortmund, Germany)
AML: Ezequiel Lavezzi (Napoli, Argentina)
AMC: Marek Hamsik (Napoli, Slovakia)
ST: Gonzalo Higuain (Real Madrid, Argentina)

Pretty strong, eh? Additionally, this line-up, unlike most of these "fantasy teams" would actually work as a team. The addition of Diego Perez as the midfield destroyer would offer freedom to both full-backs, who are extremely adventurous, to roam forward. The attacking wide players, Gotze and Lavezzi, are interchangeable, and swapping them would add even more creativity to a talented attacking central midfield (where Kroos and Hamsik are also interchangeable, offering different styles of support to Higuain), and also create even more space in attacking wide positions for Maxi and Coentrao. There's a pretty handy collection of subs available, too:

GK: Justo Villar (Valladolid and Paraguay)
DFs: Diego Lugano (Paris S-G and Uruguay), Alvaro Pereira (Porto and Uruguay)
MFs: Nuri Sahin (Real Madrid and Turkey), Luka Modric (Tottenham and Croatia), Javier Mascherano (Barcelona, Argentina), Arturo Vidal (Juventus, Chile)
STs: Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona, Chile), Antonio Di Natale (Udinese, Italy), Pedro (Barcelona, Spain)

F1 2012 Driver Market Part 2

As it says on the tin:

Williams
Nothing yet confirmed here, however the most likely partnership seems to be Pastor Maldonado alongside F1 returnee, 2007 world champion Kimi Raikkonen, with current team leader Rubens Barrichello sent on his way to retirement, or possibly a temporary gig at Lotus until Robert Kubica is fit. Now this writer is no fan of Maldonado- despite being statistically the worst Williams driver ever (and in this case, the stats do not lie), he will almost certainly retain his seat at Barrichello's expense, primarily due to the sponsorship deal he brings to the team from PDVSA, the Venezuelan state oil company, said to be worth somewhere in the region of £25 million per year. That deal, though, is reportedly under scrutiny- should the plug be pulled, that will almost certainly be the end of Maldonado's less-than-impressive F1 career, certainly with Williams, which could lead to Barrichello being retained, or perhaps a seat for likely Force India refugee Adrian Sutil

Toro Rosso
The smart money (and, in this writer's opinion, the smart thing to do) is on the retention of Sebastien Buemi and Jaime Alguersuari. However, both Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne of the Red Bull young driver stable are pushing very hard for a race seat- 1 of the 2 is likely to get at least some Friday morning mileage with the team, with a mid-season promotion a strong possibility should Buemi or Alguersuari fail to deliver

Marussia (nee Virgin)
Another name-changer. Timo Glock has a contract for 2012 and will be retained unless offered a drive from a much bigger team, which seems highly unlikely. Alongside him looks likely to be GP2 graduate Charles Pic, with Jerome D'Ambrosio likely to find himself gaining occasional employment as Lotus reserve driver- he's not thought to be a serious contender for a race seat. Canadian Robert Wickens could yet claim a race seat, but is more likely to find himself as 3rd driver, doing the odd Friday run

HRT
Pedro de la Rosa is confirmed as 1 of their drivers. The 2nd seat is likely to be decided by the size of the driver's budget. De la Rosa's compadre, GP2 graduate Dani Clos, is likely to be a contender having tested for the team during the Abu Dhabi young driver test. The addition of de la Rosa is a smart one, providing technical direction and a solid benchmark should a top team wish to evaluate a young driver, such as Red Bull did with Daniel Ricciardo

F1 2012. Who's driving where?

And now for something slightly different....

The driver market for F1 2012 is starting to take shape, however, as I'm about to show, there's still much to be decided:

Top 4 teams
All done and dusted. Mclaren (Button and Hamilton), Red Bull (Vettel and Webber), Ferrari (Alonso and Massa) and Mercedes (Schumacher and Rosberg) are all staying put, at least for the start of 2012. More on that later

Lotus (nee Renault)
This is something of a basket case. Of the current incumbents, Vitaly Petrov has a contract for 2012 and brings in excess of £10 million in funding, but last week's rant on Russian TV at the team must raise questions about his future at Enstone. While he has subsequently apologised, one key quote stood out from the email: "I have one last opportunity to try and make you proud in Brazil". Alongside him since Belgium has been Bruno Senna, who has made a solid if unspectacular impression. A race seat for next season for him is probably dependent on him finding more financial backing. Romain Grosjean is set to take Petrov's car for FP1 in Brazil on Friday, and is widely thought to be a strong contender for a race seat, with him now being stronger and more mature than in his brief stint with the team in 2009. There is also the matter of Robert Kubica- while he has no contract for 2012 with the team, boss Eric Boullier has spoken of the moral obligation he feels to Kubica- if he's race fit for winter testing, one has to believe there's a cockpit waiting for him- if he wants it. More on that later. Externally, another opetion could be Adrian Sutil if he is not retained by Force India, however they are set to be priced out of a move for Kimi Raikkonen. Boullier has already stated his intenton to have 2 top class drivers in the car for 2013.

Force India
Much more straightforward- 2 from Adrian Sutil, Paul Di Resta and test driver Nico Hulkenberg. Paddock consensus seems to be moving towards a Di Resta-Hulkenberg pairing, with Sutil set to go and knock on the doors of Lotus and Williams for a drive

Sauber
Even more straightforward. Current incumbents Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez are both retained

Caterham (nee Lotus)
Again, nice and simple. Current incumbents Heikki Kovalainen and Jarno Trulli are retained

Part 2, featuring the remaining teams and Robert Kubica, to follow later this week, but before Brazil

Partick Thistle v Ross County- Michael Fraser's Distribution

Evening. (insert excuse for lack of activity on this blog here)

Yesterday, I decided to study County keeper Michael Fraser's distribution, and also to have a look specifically at County's shooting. I'll return to the shooting later, but firstly Fraser's distribution.The basic results are that, of the 24 times Fraser played the ball, he managed to find a team-mate just 5 times (I intend to have the graphic showing this online tomorrow). This gives Fraser a pass completion figure of just 20.83%. It's probably slightly unfair to level that exclusively as a criticism of Fraser, and it should also be noted that he kept a clean sheet and dealt competently with then somewhat stifled Partick Thistle threat, most notably a flying save late on to deny David Rowson what would have been a rather ill-deserved equaliser for Thistle.

It should be noted that Fraser's cause wasn't helped by the fact that many of his goal kicks and passes were directed at Michael Gardyne who, for all his technical ability, is always going to struggle to compete aerially. Compare and contrast this with the game away to Dundee 3 weeks ago, where the more physically imposing Sam Morrow was in the team instead, and able to retain the ball far more often.

The nature of Fraser's distribution is also worthy of comment. Apart from 6 occasions where he had to leave his goal, either in anticipation of forthcoming danger or to take a free-kick, all his kicks were straight down the middle, aiming for 1 of the 2 frontmen. It seems County this season are not for building from the back, or at least not involving Fraser- there were, interestingly, a couple of excellent transitions from defence to offence ending in shots on goal which completely bypassed Fraser. While it sounds churlish to be finding fault with a team unbeaten in 10 league games and top of the league, should County be denied the services of both Morrow and Colin McMenamin, they are going to have real issues with ball retention in the attacking 3rd of the park. But we'll worry about that another day

Thoughts from today's games

Something of a Super Saturday today in the Premie League (no offence, but Norwich v West Brom and Fulham v Blackburn a Super Sunday does not make), here are my thoughts for your digestion:

• The biggest surprise at the Britannia Stadium today is that people were surprised by the result. Stoke have always been exceptionally difficult to beat at home, and their deadline day additions have enhanced them even more. Liverpool's start may have looked encouraging, but if you dig a bit deeper the truth is rather different- they only gained control during their 2-0 win at Arsenal once Arsenal DM Frimpong had been dismissed and the Bolton side they dispatched have been exposed as severely wanting by both Manchester clubs. In summary, they are a long way from any sort of title challenge- fourth place is probably the extent of their realistic ambitions. Of Stoke, should they cope with this season's Europa League allied to their league campaign, then an entry to next season's competition is not beyond them


• The Myth of Bolton Under Owen Coyle: they are no more aesthetically pleasing and no less thuggish than they were under both Megson and Allardyce. The only advantages Coyle has on Megson are that his teams do at least play with 2 wingers and 2 out-and-out strikers, and that he is more media-savvy. 8 defeats in their last 9 as well- the end-of-season slump from last season has not been arrested


• FAO Kevin Davies: I hope you're proud of yourself for your assault on Tom Cleverley today. Despite the injury, Cleverley has achieved more in the last 6 weeks than you've done in your entire career. You and your mate Paul Robinson should have been off before the 20th minute today. And what happened to you roughing up De Gea?


• It would be a surprise if both Phil Jones and Chris Smalling do not make the England squad for Euro 2012. One of the 2 should make the right-back berth their own, and after another shambolic showing today, there must be question marks about Gary Cahill's ability at the highest level, as highlighted by this blog recently

I'm Still Here!

Ahoy sailors! Thought I'd better post an article-type on this here blog of mine (it's been a while and all that) about the soccer, eh? So here are some musings from yesterday's action:

• Car Crash FC (aka Arsenal) had a bit of a disaster yesterday, and the injury to Laurent Koscielny has heightened calls for Arsene Wenger to sign another central defender. Among the names suggested has been Gary Cahill, however there must be doubts about Cahill's ability to fit into Arsenal's playing style, however good he may be aerially. The clearest example of this would be Cahill's pass completion stats from Bolton's 4-0 opening day win at QPR, in which Cahill succesfully completed only 28 of 39 passes (71.79%), which pales into comparison Koscielny's stats from Arsenal's 0-0 draw at Newcastle of 50 of 59 (84.75%) succesfully completed passes


• 2 more players linked with Car Crash FC have been Phil Jagielka of Everton and Scott Dann of Birmingham. Looking at the same stats for these 2 players, Jagielka didn't exactly cover himself in glory, losing possession in the build-up to QPR's goal, and completing only 74.45% of his passes successfully, with Dann faring only slightly better in Birmingham's 1-1 draw at home to Spurs last season (77.14%). Arsene Wenger's hunt for a ball-playing centre-back is likely to lead him overseas


• Sunderland's Simon Mignolet didn't impress in their 1-0 defeat at home to Newcastle- his positioning for Ryan Taylor's goal was terrible, so much so that it would have been rude of Taylor not to put the ball in the far corner (the goal he conceded at Liverpool last weekend was from a similar position on the other side). Mignolet's distribution was poor as well, with less than half of his passes finding a team-mate. It's therefore difficult to see why Mignolet is in Steve Bruce's team ahead of the far superior Craig Gordon


• I quite like the Guardian chalkboards

Also, y'all may have noticed the absence of a full-blown season preview. This is mainly due to the fact that I've been superuberdeuberdeduper busy, but also because of the situation where the season starts before the close of the transfer window. Therefore, were I to write at the beginning of August, for example, that Stoke City needed a new striker, Tony Pulis could then read this and go out and sign the required frontman

Why I'm Loving the Copa America

As the title suggests, here's a quick irreverent rundown of why I'm enjoying the tournament so far:

• There's quality players I'm discovering that even I hadn't heard of. For instance, Estigarribia of Paraguay, whose reward for dismantling Dani Alves (yes, that Dani Alves) against Brazil was to get Dani Alves dropped. Unfortunately for Estigarribia, the bizarre tournament format means he now will most likely have to face the much more defensively-sound (well, unless your name is Gareth Bale) Maicon in the quarter-finals. Also impressing was Venezuela's pirate-like centre-back Vizcarrondo, about whom Alexandre Pato is still probably having nightmares


• There's an underlying feeling that this is a football tournament for proper football geeks like yours truly. ESPN's excellent, unflashy coverage, the late kick-off times, the regular tweets and Guardian columns of football tactics God Jonathan Wilson, this is a tournament for those who know their football


• Following on from that point, the variety of different tactics and formations (far, far more than in any European tournament) have really added to the Copa. This writer will resist from going into too much depth in this post, but the contrast between, say, Argentina's 4-3-3, Chile (more on them later) and their 3-3-1-3/3-4-1-2, Brazil's 4-2-3-1 and Uruguay's 4-4-2 is fascinating


• Chile. I adore them. The breathtaking all-out attack style favoured at the World Cup by Marcelo Bielsa has been continued by his successor, Claudio Borghi. Borghi has at times favoured adding another central midfielder at the expense of one of the front 3, but even that has helped release playmaker Jorge Valdivia, who excelled in the space between Uruguay's back 4 and midfield. And then there's Alexis Sanchez. Wonderful, wonderful player-unlike many of the other star names at the tournament, he's actually lived up to his headline billing, embodying the spirit of his team beautifully with his pace, trickery and technique. Should he, as expected, join Barcelona after the Copa, the rest of Europe might as well give up

Shifty's End of the Season Awards Sponsored By Sea Salt and Balsamic Vinegar Kettle Chips

Right, it's that time of the year again (how many of my posts start like that, by the way?), awards time!

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

Plenty of candidates for this one. Headline candidates include Sir Alex Ferguson for knocking the scouse c***s (there's 2 sweary words that could be) off their perch, Pep Guardiola for another masterful campaign with Barcelona and Andre Villas Boas (Porto's Liga Sagres record this season: P30 W27 D3 L0 under the 33, yes 33, year-old), and all 3 were considered for this award. Also considered were some less well-known candidates: Jurgen Klopp steered a dazzling young Borussia Dortmund side to a deserved Bundesliga title, Luis Garcia worked miracles on a shoestring budget and with an ageing backline at Levante, fostering a fantastic team spirit as they comfortably avoided relegation from La Liga, while Barry Smith at Dundee responded to a 25 point deduction with a 23 game unbeaten run with a team shorn of its best players due to financial meltdown featuring kids, trialists, has-beens and never-will-bes. Now, I'd be at risk of opening myself up to accusations of bias if the award goes to Klopp or Ferguson, so I'll give it to Villas Boas for not just his record with Porto this season (their dismantling of Villarreal, whose own boss Juan Carlos Garrido nearly made the shortlist, was as remarkable as it was spectacularly impressive), but for getting me annoyed in that he was 6 years ahead of me in starting his coaching badges, and for the fact there's no chance he's getting this award next season

GAME OF THE SEASON

Easy one this. Back in February, runaway leaders of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund, travelled to Bayern Munchen, knowing that a win could effectively seal their title, while a defeat could let Bayern back in. What followed was a fantastic match, played at a crazily high tempo, but with the highest quality of technique, particularly from Dortmund, who took an early lead through Lucas Barrios, who outpaced Holger Badstuber to finish expertly. Bayern equalised soon after through a Luiz Gustavo header, but Dortmund retook the lead midway through the 1st half, their high intensity pressing game saw Badstuber dispossed inside his own half, with the ball finding its way to Nuri Sahin 22 yards out, who curled a beautifully-placed shot into the net. The hapless Badstuber was hauled off at half-time as Bayern piled pressure on Dortmund, with debutant goalkeeper Mitchell Langerak called upon may times. He didn't let his team down, though, and midway through the 2nd half Mats Hummels powered in a header from a corner to give Dortmund a 3-1 lead which proved unassailable, as they contained the Bayern threat until full-time, with Sahin and Sven Bender dominating the midfield, leaving Bastian Schweinsteiger floundering

More awards to follow. Probably Friday

Sheep's Stag Do Betting Review

Well, what a weekend that was. And now that the bruises have healed, the superinjunctions have (for legal reasons, I cannot complete that sentence), the flirtatious texts to the Varsity big screen have been sent and Shifty's kart has been fixed, we can now look back at the betting tips for the weekend

First to be strip-searched at the airport
While there was no actual strip-searching taking place, Shifty's unfortunate decision to wear a pair of jeans with a busted top button left him, without his belt, in a horribly precarious situation going through security on Sunday
Winner: Shifty @ 7/4

Anyone to miss a flight
No- just. The Stag himself, Sheep, made the outbound flight with just moments to spare

To win the poker
As expected, G-Ham triumphed here, with Pud claiming 2nd prize and each-way honours. Sheep's lack of poker experience saw him end up with the wooden spoon
Winner: G-Ham @ 9/2
Runner-up: Pud @ 7/2

First to check in with the other half
Winner: Sheep @ 5/6

First to crack on to Hooters waitress
There was only going to be one winner here, and Duguid lived up to his billing as favourite, inquiring as to whether the attractive brunette serving us would like to join us in post-meal revellery. It is not clear if Duguid has ever NOT attempted to pull a waitress serving him
Winner: Duguid @ 5/4

When will the first Jagerbombs be had?
They were very nearly had on Saturday afternoon at the hotel bar, however the bar, clearly not stocked for 7 ravenous young souls, was not stocked with Jager, and so the Jagerbombs were delayed until the evening
Winner: Saturday evening @ 2/1

Any "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep
Winner: Yes @ 11/10. Let's leave it at that, there were "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep

First to be kicked out of the strip club
Astonishingly, no-one!

To spend most money in the strip club
Let's just say this was a keenly-fought contest

Anyone for a roast?
Unfortunately not. You can bet your house that, had there been one, Shifty would have been involved

To have the biggest Premier Inn breakfast
Sheep's mammoth effort on Saturday morning sees him claim this one. Honourable mention for Shifty's efforts on both Saturday and Sunday sees him claim each-way honours

Winner: Sheep @ 9/2
Runner-up: Shifty @ 6/4

To win the karting
A closely-fought contest between Sheep and Duguid was decided when Duguid, remembering that he should let the stag win, crashed. For such nobility, he has earned each-way honours. Shifty ended up with 3 wheels on his wagon, and retired due to chronic understeer

Winner: Sheep @ 5/2
Runner-up: Duguid @ 2/1

First to spew
To everyone's credit, there was no spewing action in Cardiff, Pud's late entry back in Aberdeen notwithstanding. This "award" is actually going to be shared on each-way terms of 1/2 for 1st and 2nd between Pud and G-Ham, for sporting the most impressive bruises after karting

Winners: G-Ham @ 6/1, Pud @ 4/1

So how did everyone do?
Let's see who managed to pick up a few wins, and who would have made any speculative, Brush-like punters a few bob. All 7 took part in 7 events, apart from Doug who did not kart. All returns are based on a 1 unit stake in each market

Sheep: 3 wins @ 5/6, 9/2 and 5/2
Total return 10.8333 units

Duguid: 2 wins @ 5/4 and 2/1
Total return 5.25 units

Shifty: 2 wins @ 7/4 and 6/4
Total return: 5.25 units

Pud: 2 wins @ 7/2 and 4/1
Total return: 9.5 units

G-Ham: 2 wins @ 9/2 and 6/1
Total return: 12.5 units

Sheep's Stag Weekend Part 3

By popular demand, here's Part 3 of the betting preview of Sheep's Stag Weekend

First to be strip-searched at the airport
Shifty 7/4, Doug 3/1, Sheep 7/2, Duguid 5/1, G-Ham 6/1, Rory 8/1, Pud 10/1

Given that the CIA have been monitoring his movements for a number of years, Shifty has to be favourite in this somewhat abstract market. Doug could be a contender here too

Anyone to miss a flight or train (there or back)
Yes 2/1
No 4/9

To win the poker
G-Ham 9/2, Doug 5/1, Pud 13/2, Shifty 7/1, Sheep 8/1, Duguid 10/1, Rory 12/1

G-Ham has been successful on the gambling front before, and is just favourite. Doug is a mean poker player, while Pud and Shifty could also be in contention

First to check in with their other half
Sheep 5/6, Rory evens

Almost too close too call is this one

First to crack on to Hooters waitress
Duguid 5/4, Shifty 4/1, Sheep 6/1, Pud 6/1, G-Ham 8/1, Doug 8/1, Rory 8/1

Duguid has to be the market leader here. It just remains to be seen if the chat-up attempt will be delivered to the unlucky lady's face or chest. Shifty's attempt to impress may consist of ordering more than just chips

When will the first Jagerbombs be had?
Friday 12/1
Saturday morning 25/1
Saturday afternoon 7/2
Saturday evening 2/1
Sunday 50/1
None during the weekend 100/1

Any "unfortunate" incidents involving Sheep
Examples would include the stereotypical stag do pranks
Yes 11/10
No 4/6

Weekend Betting, Saturday 30th April

Well, with all the blogging about next weekend's debauchery going on, I thought I'd better squeeze in (or should that be squeeze out) a look at some of this weekend's games:

• There looks like being only 1 winner of Chelsea v Tottenham tomorrow teatime, and it's not Tottenham. Paddy Power will give you 8/15 on the home win, which would see Chelsea continue their recent good form which has seen them overhaul Arsenal in 2nd place. Tottenham can't be fancied, given their recent form- 1 win in their last 8 games in all competitions. Tottenham may also have one of their main attacking threats somewhat subdued- with Benoit Assou-Ekotto injured, Gareth Bale may have to drop back to left-back. Add this to the breaking of Fernando Torres' scoring duck, and the complete lack of form of any of Tottenham's strikers, and Chelsea to Win to Nil holds some appeal at 9/5 with Unibet


• Blackpool v Stoke looks a tough one to call. Stoke appear not to have suffered any sort of hangover from their FA Cup Semi Final dismantling of Bolton, having drawn at Aston Villa and beaten Wolves at home since. Having said that, one can make a case for Blackpool, who won the reverse fixture 2-0 and will create chances against anyone. Therefore, the bet to be on is Both Teams to Score at 8/13 with Stan James, a bet that has a 100% success rate at Bloomfield Road this season


• The remainder of the Premier League games on Saturday (and probably Blackpool v Stoke) all look distinctly drawy- this could be an opportunity for a rather speculative punt. Any combination of 4 of those games all to end in draws will generate odds of approximately 95/1. Have a go

EVERYBODY GTF (GET TO FALKIRK) TOMORROW. MON THE STAGGIES!

Shepherd's Stag Weekend, Cardiff: Part 2

Here, by popular demand, are some more markets to keep an eye on for Shepherd's Stag Weekend in Cardiff:

First to be kicked out of the strip club
Duguid 2/1, Pud 5/2, Sheep 9/2, Shifty 11/2, Rory 7/1, G-Ham 8/1, Doug 9/1

Duguid is again among the frontrunners in this market, set to be dominated by the more excitable members of the group. The possibility of Shifty nodding off, while highly unlikely, cannot be completely ruled out

To spend most money in the strip club
Rory 5/1, Shifty 6/1, Duguid 6/1, Pud 7/1, Sheep 7/1, Doug 8/1, G-Ham 8/1

As the odds suggest, this is set to be a very close-run thing. Any one of the 7 could win this. Shifty has previous here, with Pud and Duguid (again) also set to feature prominently

Anyone for a roast?
Odds on it happening: 3/1
To take part if it does happen: Duguid 6/4. Pud 2/1, Shifty 3/1, G-Ham 4/1, Doug 6/1
Again, Rory and Sheep, being attached, are excluded from this market. Duguid is expected, along with possibly Pud and Shifty, to be pressing for this

To have the biggest Premier Inn breakfast
Shifty 3/1, Doug 7/2, Sheep 9/2, G-Ham 5/1, Pud 7/1, Rory 8/1, Duguid 8/1

Expect Shifty to plough through at least 2 bowls of cereal, some toast and maybe a bit of crumpet, in anticipation of a hearty weekend of debauchery. Doug, G-Ham and Sheep are unlikely to be far behind

Shepherd's Stag Weekend, Cardiff: Friday 6th- Sunday 8th May

The eagerly-anticipated stag do takes place next weekend, and this writer, being among the travelling party, thought it fitting to open up a few markets on the weekend

To Win the Karting
Shepherd 5/2, Duguid 4/1, Shifty 9/2, Rory 8/1, Pud 8/1, G-Ham 10/1, Doug 12/1

The karting event should be a very close-run thing. Sheep the Stag (which sounds like a classic piece of Northern fucked-up crossbreeding) will be the favourite due to his prowess behind the wheel of a kart, with Scotty Duguid, always quick behind the wheel, set to be close behind. Don't rule out a challenge from the ever-competitive Shifty, either, with the rest close behind

First To Spew
Duguid 3/1, Rory 5/1, Pud 8/1, Shifty 12/1, G-Ham 12/1, Doug 25/1, Sheep 50/1

Duguid and Rory are the 2 favourites in this market- both have previous for this on a night out. At the other end of the market, Doug is a fine specimen of a man, who knows how to hold his drink, while Sheep is unlikely to (willingly) ingest the quantities of alcohol required

To Pull
Duguid 6/4, Shifty 7/2, Pud 4/1, G-Ham 5/1, Doug 8/1
Rory and Sheep are excluded from this market due to their attached status
Expect Duguid and Shifty to be fairly enthusiastic about using their mandatory chat-up lines, and maybe even a few of their own

Blackpool v Chelsea, Monday 7th March

My Thoughts
2 sides here whose respective form is going in opposite directions. After a hugely promising start to the season, Blackpool's form has nosedived somewhat, with Ian Holloway's side bottom of the 6-match form table, and now just 2 points above the relegation zone. Chelsea, on the other hand, are getting back to their best form. Once Fernando Torres is fully integrated into their side, there may be even more to come from them

The Verdict
All the stats here point to an away win, and one by a considerable margin at that. Blackpool are further handicapped by the absence through suspension of both Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell. That said, they will still fancy their chances of scoring against a Chelsea defence which fares considerably worse away from home than at home- they have managed clean sheets in 62% of their league home games, but just 29% away from home, and with their gung-ho, all-out attack style, even without the aforementioned 2 key players, Blackpool should still create chances. That said, Blackpool's defensive record is little short of woeful- they have yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season, shipping 24 goals at Bloomfield Road so far (an average of 1.84 per game)- it's therefore nigh-on impossible to see at least one of Chelsea's frontline consisting of 2 from Torres, Anelka, Drogba and Kalou not hitting the net. It looks like goals could be plentiful, but Chelsea should come out on top. Away win

The Bet
With Chelsea a best price of just 1/3 with Paddy Power to win outright, best to look elsewhere for value. If Chelsea manage an early goal, then they should go on to win convincingly, therefore 2 bets to be looking at would be Half Time/ Full Time Chelsea/Chelsea available at a general 4/5, along with Chelsea on the handicap- Chelsea -1 available at 4/5 with Blue Square. A more speculative punt would be on the correct score- 3-1 Chelsea at 12/1 with Coral and 4-1 Chelsea at 17/1 with Unibet

Weekend Betting, Saturday 26th February

Howdy folks. Here are a few tips for the weekend for you to either:
a) spend what little is left of your last pay cheque on
b) start spending your new pay cheque on

• 'Tis the Carling Cup Final on Sunday. Arsenal are overwhelming favourites to win the trophy, although a defence as stodgy as Birmingham's could frustrate them for some time if Arsenal don't score early, therefore I'm thinking about avoiding Betfred's 4/7 on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes. I'm more tempted to place a sizeable sum on Arsenal Draw No Bet at 2/9 with Bwin, or the 3/10 on Arsenal to win the trophy at 3/10 with Skybet
• A league I know a fair bit about, having followed Ross County through its good, bad and mostly ugly travails, is the Scottish 1st Division, and there are a few interesting bets to be had today. One of the oldest footballing cliches is that the league table never lies. However, it does in the 1st Division this season, thanks to Dundee's 25 point deduction. Without it, they would be 6 points clear at the top of the league, which would be a fair reflection of their status as the best team in the league. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season, and hence are well worth backing at a general 4/7 to beat a Morton side with an away record of 1-4-5. Also worth backing in the 1st division are Falkirk to beat Cowdenbeath at a general 4/11. A more speculative punt in the same division comes at Stark's Park, where the first signs of the widely-expected Raith collapse have appeared, losing 3 of their last 5. John McGlynn's side are without a number of players due to injury for the visit of an improving Stirling Albion. If you're feeling particularly brave, Stirling can be backed to win at a general 15/2, otherwise the Double Chance Draw/Stirling is available at a general 12/5

RIP DEAN RICHARDS

AC Milan v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 15th February

My Thoughts

This 1st Knockout Round Champions League tie is one of the most difficult to call, and from a tactical standpoint arguably the most intriguing. AC Milan are having an excellent season, with a 4-0 victory over Parma on Saturday keeping them 3 points clear at the head of Serie A, while a 2-1 victory away at Sunderland on Saturday keeps Tottenham well in contention for another top 4 finish. The intriguing aspect of this game is the contrast between the 2 sides' approaches to the game. AC Milan, under summer appointment Massimiliano Allegri, tend to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation. This leaves their midfield quite narrow, with the main creative responsibilities falling to the player in the trequartista role behind the front 2, a role that could be occupied by Clarence Seedorf on Tuesday, with 2 from Robinho, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alexandre Pato ahead of him. Width is provided by the 2 full-backs, likely to be Massimo Oddo and Luca Antonini, while Robinho and Kevin Prince Boateng can also drift wide from advanced positions- their squad is also vastly experienced. Tottenham have a much younger squad, and, depending on the availability of Rafael van der Vaart, play a straighforward 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1. They place a much greater emphasis on width than AC Milan, with the wingers being supported by offensive full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. They can, however, be left short in the centre of midfield on occasion, particularly when playing 4-4-2.

The Verdict
It is clear, therefore, that where one team is weak, the other is strong, and vice versa. For instance, in the wide areas, we are likely to see down the Tottenham left 34-year old Massimo Oddo up against Gareth Bale, with Assou-Ekotto supporting on the overlap, and on the right Aaron Lennon taking on Luca Antonini, who is a natural winger, with Hutton rampaging forward in support. Conversely, AC Milan should regularly outnumber Tottenham in the centre of midfield, even without the injured Andrea Pirlo and Massimo Ambrosini and the ineligible Mark van Bommel (reportedly a Tottenham target in January). This should lead to opportunities for Mathieu Flamini, the veteran Gennaro Gattuso and the youngster Alexander Merkel to start. In attack, AC Milan have a number of options to call upon for their front 3 positions, even with Antonio Cassano ineligible, and should give the Tottenham backline, which has been hit extremely hard by injuries this season, a thorough examining, and should edge this first leg.

The Bet
AC Milan can make the most of home advantage and Tottenham injury worries to win, and are availabe at 4/5 with Boylesports. Tottenham do not do cagey and defensive, so expect goals- Stan James will give you 8/1 on a 2-1 AC Milan victory, with 10/11 generally available on over 2.5 goals

Why Andy Carroll IS Worth £35 Million

Sounds mad, doesn't it? But the price tag being bandied about for Carroll can be justified. Here's how.

At 22, Anrew Thomas Carroll still has the majority of his career ahead of him, and has already established himself in the Premier League and with the England national team. Given that his playing style is not overly reliant on pace, which usually a player starts to lose once they reach 30, it's not unreasonable to speculate that he has perhaps 12-15 years of top-flight and international football to look forward to. Given his current level of ability, allied to his future potential, his market value based purely on that is probably somewhere in the region of £15 million.

There are, however, more factors in a transfer fee than just that. Firstly, Carroll's English nationality and junior coaching at Newcastle means he counts as a "home-grown" player, of which each Premier League club must have at least 8 in their 25 man squad, with a similar rule in existence in European competition. Given the dearth of talented English players capable of performing regularly at the highest level, players such as Carroll are much sought-after, thereby increasing their market value- a recent example of this would be the £24 million Aston Villa paid for Darren Bent. Liverpool in particular are short on this type of player.

What also must be considered is the impact Carroll's departure at such a late stage in the transfer window would have on Newcastle. Should the transfer go through, Newcastle would have very little time to source a replacement for Carroll, and given that the prospective fee has been so publicised, this would hinder them in negotiations with other clubs (for example, should Newcastle offer £10 million for a new striker, why should the selling club not push them for more, knowing that Newcastle had £35 million in the bank?), and also leaves them surely too little time to bring in a replacement from overseas. The bracketed argument also applies to Newcastle as the club selling Carroll to Liverpool, with Liverpool's £50 million sale of Fernando Torres set to be completed.

Newcastle would also have to deal with the loss of a player who has scored almost 31% of their league goals this season. Should they fail to sign a striker to replace Carroll (and perhaps even if they do, as the prospective new striker settles in and Newcastle make any adjustment required to their playing style), they would have to deal with the increased possibility of finishing further down the league than their current 9th position, and perhaps even relegation.

And that is why Andy Carroll is worth £35 million

The Flaws in a 10 team SPL, and my vision for a better league, Part 1

It has been announced this week that the SPL have provisionally decided on a 10 team SPL, with a 12 team "SPL2" featuring new regulations such as a requirement for a minimum of 3000 seats and undersoil heating at teams' stadia, along with full-time youth players. Over a few parts (I'm thinking 3) I'll explain why I, along with the majority of Scottish football supporters, feel this is the wrong route for Scottish football to go down, and give my vision for an alternative. In this first part, I'll explain why an 18 team SPL is the way forward.

The basic structure I, as self-appointed Head of All of Scottish Football Administration, would consist of an 18 team SPL- each team would play each other twice. The Scottish First Division would consist of 16 teams, again each playing each other twice, with the Scottish Second Division again consisting of 16 teams, each playing each other twice. The Scottish Third Division would cease to continue, with the teams currently residing in it moving up to the new enlarged Second Division. Between the SPL and the First Division, there would be 3 automatic promotion places at the end of the season, with 3 automatic promotion places also available between the First Division and the Second Division. No promotion/relegation play-offs would be entered into, although this, along with the number of places, would be reviewed annually.

In the SPL, each team would play 34 games, with the First and Second Division teams playing 30 games each. This would allow for all 3 leagues to take a proper winter break of 4-6 weeks from roughly the middle of December to the middle of January, during which time climactic conditions usually prohibit the playing of much football anyway. To accommodate this, the 3 leagues would all start late July, then after returning from the winter break playing until early-mid May, with the final SPL fixtures 1 week after the final First and Second Division matches. The reduction in the number of games will lead to a reduction in the requirement for leauge matches to be played midweek, when crowds tend to be lower.

The Scottish Cup would continue in its existing format. However, the SFL Challenge Cup would be discontinued, in order to allow the SFL to focus on improving the strength of the First and Second Divisions, in order to ready their teams for the SPL.

The existing SPL stadium rules of a requirement for undersoil heating and 6000 seats would remain in place in the SPL. There would be no new ground rules for the First and Second Divisions, and teams promoted from the First Division to the SPL would have 6 months from the end of their promotion season to install enough seats to give them 6000, and a further 6 months to install undersoil heating, in order to minimise disruption to the playing surface mid-season.

The structure of an 18 team SPL, 16 team First Division and 16 team Second Division would require a total of 50 teams. There would be no "pyramid" structure below this, as contrary to popular belief, there is a limited level of desire among the Junior and Highland League clubs for it- the last time a place in the existing structure opened up (when Annan Athletic joined the SFL) there were only 5 applicants. That demand could easily be met by the 8 new places that would be available by clubs such as Spartans and Cove Rangers.

Well, that's my blueprint. Part 2 will follow soon

Today's Championship Games, Saturday 15th January

Thought I'd do some previews in a slightly different format today, and give y'all my thoughts on a few of today's Championship fixtures, a league I know a bit about (although not Swansea v Crystal Palace- that's already kicked off)

Bristol City v Middlesbrough
Both teams were rather disappointingly dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend by Sheffield Wednesday and Burton Albion respectively. Both sides started the season poorly, leading to managerial changes, but while Bristol City have recovered somewhat (with summer signing Brett Pitman finding his feet and starting to score goals at this level), Middlesbrough have been sluggish of late, and their dreadful 2-2-9 away record makes William Hill's 13/8 on Bristol City to win very appealing

Norwich v Cardiff
This 3rd v 2nd clash could be an absolute humdinger. Norwich have been very impressive under Paul Lambert this season- their squad contains few big household names, but many young players with potential and a point to prove, particularly after their FA Cup exit against Leyton Orient, and a strong holiday period leaves them well-placed for at least a play-off place. Cardiff, on the other hand, do have a smattering of big names and experienced players, but have had a ropey holiday period (last week's FA Cup draw away at Stoke notwithstanding), and have already lost 6 away games in the Championship this season. Snap up the 6/5 on Norwich offered by Boylesports

Nottingham Forest v Portsmuth
Forest have an unbeaten home record that stretches back as far as 30 games- their less impressive away form is the main barrier between them and a play-off place, and their attacking artillery looks set to be further enhanced by USA striker Robbie Findley. Portsmouth's recent form has dipped somewhat, culminating in a 3-1 defeat by Brighton in the FA Cup last time out, but they look like they should survive in the Championship this season, which would arguably be considered a success given their financial worries. Forest should be too strong at home for them, though, with 4/6 generally available on the home win

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Some Tips and Thoughts for 2011

Happy New Year, y'all!

Now, being the generous soul I am, I thought I'd furnish you with a few of my thoughts and tips for 2011. Here goes:

• At least 1 Midlands side will be relegated. Currently occupying 20th place are Wolves, and they look most likely to go down, due to their extreme difficulties in scoring and preventing the concession of goals. Last season, their home record kept them up, as their away form was honking. This season, however, their away form has remained honking (4 points from trips to Merseyside are all they have garnered thus far from 10 away games) while their home record of 4-2-4 leaves much to be desired. They are little better than 1/2 across the board to go down. Along with them, another Midlands team with dreadful away form, Birmingham City could well go down, as they too have seen a previously excellent home record disintegrate somewhat- they are 3-5-2 at home thus far. Frankly, Alex Mcleish's side would not be missed, with their defensive, physical approach and their continued deployment of Leeds Council Asian Community Outreach Officer Lee Bowyer. 32RED will give you 11/5 on Birmingham returning to the Championship
  
• Regular readers of this blog will know of my love for all bets based on Darren Bent scoring. His continued good form this season, along with Wayne Rooney's lack of proficiency infront of goal, means that the circa 3/1 currently on offer on Betfair for Bent to be the Top English Goalscorer in the Premier League should be snapped up


• The Premier League title is Manchester United's to lose.They have the ability and experience required to make it to the finishing line 1st, even though most of their performances this season have been at best average. The know-how of "Golden Oldies" Giggs, Scholes and van der Sar (Gary Neville might be old, but he certainly hasn't been golden when he's played this season), allied to the match-winning abilities of the likes of Nani (who had a sparkling 2010), Berbatov, Park (the scourge of Arsenal), Rooney (whose goal against West Brom might just see him kick on again) and Hernandez should see United claim a 19th league title. This side isn't up to the standard of Arsenal's 2003/04 unbeaten vintage or the Treble-winning side of 1998/99 (Darron Gibson and Gabriel Obertan, pictured, would never have got near that side), but it's arguably the strongest of the current league. Betfred will give you Evens on the Premier League trophy returning to Old Trafford. He can't understand why you'd bet anywhere else, and with that price, neither can I
  

Fancy a rummage in the January sales? Me neither. Get your hard-earned cash on those treats

• Anyone see that Simpsons episode (around about season 14 I think) where Mr Burns buys up every media outlet in Springfield apart from Lisa's Red Dress Press, where she inspires the residents of Springfield to oppose Burns' empire by starting their own newspapers? Well, I'd like to think of myself as Lisa to Mr Burn's Rupert Murdoch. Check out Graeme's Rant at http://gtm999.blogspot.com
• The Guardian is a great newspaper

FAO JAMES DART: I WANT A PLACE IN YOUR 100 FOR 2012