Sunday 22 August 2010

Manchester City v Liverpool, Monday 23rd August 2010

My Thoughts

Two teams here with ambitions of a top 4 finish, both with 1 point on the board thus far. While Liverpool were denied all 3 points on the opening weekend only by a rare late blunder by goalkeeper Pepe Reina, City never looked like getting 3 points at Spurs due to a complete lack of creativity and incision in the middle of the park. For Liverpool, Fernando Torres has been working his way back to full fitness following the World Cup, and could be ready to start with Joe Cole, who hasn't had the best of weeks, unavailable, although Woy Hodgson may well have Thursday's UEFA Cup tie away to Trabzonspor in mind when naming his team. City could hand home and full debuts respectively to Mario Balotelli and James Milner- they certainly need a more creative influence in central midfield, something the introduction of Milner could provide either as a direct replacement for perhaps Nigel de Jong or Gareth Barry, or wide left to allow David Silva to occupy a more central position

The Verdict
As aforementioned, both teams have aspirations of a top 4 finish and therefore would love all 3 points. However, a defeat for either would leave them 5 points off the top of the league, which even at this early stage of the season would leave them playing catch-up. Both managers are also likely to have one eye on UEFA Cup games on Thursday night. Draw

The Bet
The draw can be backed outright at a general 9/4. It's likely to be a cagey affair, so also consider under 2.5 goals at a best price of 4/6 with Boylesports. Also, with Fernando Torres still finding his form and fitness, Liverpool's best hope a goal with Joe Cole suspended could well be Steven Gerrard (who may or may not have obtained a superinjunction to prevent the reporting his alleged impregnation of a 15-year-old girl). He can be backed to score (as he may or may not have done in the aforementioned alleged incident) anytime at a best price of 7/2 with Paddy Power

Monday 9 August 2010

Shifty's Season Preview Part 5

BBB

After the Wigan preview, let's stay in Lancashire and assess the chances of Blackpool, Blackburn and Bolton.

Ian Holloway's Blackpool must be one of the most favoured relegation candidates in Premier League history at a general 2/7, and it's difficult to argue against that. So I won't bother.

The squad lacks not only quality but also quantity, and the morale of those players must surely be affected by the late payment of their promotion bonuses- given that they've had to spend money to bring Bloomfield Road up to Premier League standards, Holloway is unlikely to have much leeway to do anything other than raid the reserve teams of bigger clubs for a few loan deals, a tactic they had success with last season with Everton's Seamus Coleman and Aston Villa's Barry Bannan both impressing. Even if Holloway finds another few gems (and Charlie Adam continues his Championship form), they are unlikely to be anywhere other that 20th come May.

Blackpool prediction: 20th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Absolutely fine- their squad is almost exclusively home-grown players, although it's still some way short of the permitted 25.

Blackburn Rovers ended last season very well, finishing 10th. The football under Sam Allardyce wasn't easy on the eye (and never has been under Allardyce) but Blackburn were difficult to beat, particularly at home, as their 10-6-3 record at Ewood Park shows. Allardyce must address their lack of potency in attack, though- their top scorer, David Dunn, managed just 9 league goals, and it's by no means certain that he'll be fit for all 38 games. Allardyce has brought in Manchester United youngster Mame Biram Diouf (allowing him the possibility of a Diouf and Diouf strike partnership), but one suspects they may still struggle to match last season's achievements. They have enough steel and defensive solidity, though, to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.

Prediction: 13th
How they'll cope with the homegrown rule: Just about OK. Allardyce may yet add more Premier League experience, particularly in attack
RoversBet: Their lack of a proven Premier League goalscorer means Paddy Power's 25/1 on them to be the Premier League's lowest scorers is very tempting, especially when you consider the more cavalier styles of the 3 promoted sides

Bolton Wanderers under Owen Coyle were a more aesthetically pleasing side than under the deeply unpopular Gary Megson, finishing 14th. They look well placed to continue their improvement, with Coyle promising more entertaining football. Defensively, they are solid- Jussi Jaaskelainen has excelled in this league for a number of years, while Gary Cahill's England debut should come at some point this season. In midfield, Lee Chung-Yong has adapted very well to the Premier League, and was one of the few players in the league to have a good World Cup, while on the opposite flank Martin Petrov could be the free transfer of the summer. Up top, Kevin Davies provides bulk and a physical presence (if not massively prolific infront of goal), while Johan Elmander must surely start to justify his £9 million price tag. The Trotters' squad features a good mix of experienced Premier League campaigners, such as Davies and Jaaskelainen, along with promising youngsters such as Lee, Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Mark Davies (as opposed to the Allardyce regime, which almost exclusively contained 30-something journeymen booting both the ball and the opposition into the air). A top 10 finish is within their reach, provided they can maintain their upward trend under Coyle

Prediction: 10th
How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. No problems for Coyle in this department, with his side containing experienced Premier League home-grown players such as Davies, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson and Jlloyd Samuel alongside young talent such as Cahill, Mark Davies (a much more cultured technician than Kevin. They are, unsurprisingly, not related, which is unusual, as most people in Bolton are related to each other), Fabrice Muamba and Chris Basham
BoltonBet: Ladbrokes offer 5/1 on Bolton to finish in the top 10

Saturday 7 August 2010

Shifty's Season Preview: the SPL

My Thoughts

Both halves of the Old Firm have seen their squads change significantly- while Celtic have added quantity and quality sufficient for the SPL (how the likes of Daryl Murphy and Charlie Mulgrew will cope in the Europa League remains to be seen, however), Rangers have lost a significant number of players. While the losses of Steven Smith, DaMarcus Beasley and perhaps even Nacho Novo may not be felt, they will surely miss the goalscoring ability of Kris Boyd, and the balance in midfield offered by Kevin Thomson (the merits of having a left-footed player alongside a right-footed player in the centre of the park are much under-appreciated), and the loss of promising centre-back Danny Wilson to, in all probability, Liverpool's reserve team, will be a blow. While it's unlikely Rangers will be playing Champions League football after Christmas, their continental exploits will surely stretch their slimmed-down squad to its limits. Admittedly, Celtic are unlikely to go much further in the Europa League, but their bigger squad means they are better-equipped to compete on 2 fronts, which is why this writer is tipping Neil Lennon's side to reclaim the title. Lennon adapted well to life as an SPL manager, with Celtic winning all their league games under him last season, losing only to Ross County in the Scottish Cup Semi-Final.

Behind them, the rest of the top 6 looks fairly clear-cut. Dundee United look solid, if perhaps short of a 20-goal striker, while Motherwell look set to continue their improvement under Craig Brown, and can't be ruled out from a challenge for 3rd. Hearts could well move above Hibs if Australian comedian Jim Jefferies can keep Kevin Kyle fit- as long as referees continue not to penalise him in the SPL, he'll continue to climb all over defenders for headers, while Hibs' season imploded towards the end of last season- John Hughes' side never really recovered from their Scottish Cup exit at the hands of Ross County.

Down nearer the bottom, Aberdeen and St Johnstone have outside chances of making the top 6, with the other 4 teams (Hamilton, Inverness, Kilmarnock and St Mirren) battling (often literally- don't expect much football to be played at this end of the division) to avoid the drop. The caravan-dwellers from Inverness have SPL experience in their ranks, and look arguably the best placed of the 4 to survive. Hamilton will miss James McArthur, but have the ability to scrap their way out of trouble, and as long as they can find a reliable goalscorer, they should just be OK. Kilmarnock under new manager Mixu Paatelainen have adopted a novel transfer policy this summer of signing players who have the same name as established quality players, namely Mohammed Sissoko and David Silva. Unfortunately for them, Juventus and Manchester City are likely to notice should Paatelainen attempt to swap his players for their more famous namesakes, although this writer is considering changing his name to Bastian Schweinsteiger in an attempt to get a game at Rugby Park. The favourites for relegation, however, must be St Mirren. Gus Macpherson has left to be replaced by former Cowdenbeath boss Danny Lennon, who has taken a number of his old players with him to St Mirren. Lennon clearly trusts these players, but there's no getting away from the fact that Paul McQuade and Gareth Wardlaw were 3rd division players 12 months ago. Factor in the loss of the excellent Andy Dorman, and St Mirren look set for the drop.

Bet: St Mirren to be relegated @ 11/4 general

Friday 6 August 2010

Shifty's Season Preview Part 4

Wigan Athletic

Wigan under Roberto Martinez last season were consistently inconsistent. Wins over Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Liverpool were followed up by a 4-0 defeat to Portsmouth, 2 5-0 defeats at the hands of Manchester United and 2 8 goal beatings in London.
Over the summer, Martinez had lost experienced campaigners Titus Bramble, Mario Melchiot and Paul Scharner (who is still a free agent. Someone's going to get themselves a real bargain if they snap him up), bringing in Paraguayan centre-back Antolin Alcaraz, Argentinian centre-forward Mauro Boselli, Bolton reserve keeper Ali Al-Habsi and Hamilton midfielder James McArthur. While all these signings have their merits (Alcaraz had a particularly impressive World Cup, Boselli has a good track record in Argentina and McArthur has excelled for Hamilton for a number of seasons despite his tender years), they have a total of 0 Premier League games under their belts. Assuming they can keep hold of Maynor Figueroa, Charles N'Zogbia and Hugo Rodallega, they do have the makings of a good footballing side, however they look more likely to be involved in a relegation scrap, which they may be unable to battle their way out of, particularly given that only Blackpool appear to be significantly worse than them.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 18th

How they'll cope with the home-grown rule: Oh dear. 3 more homegrown players are needed. Wigan scout South America very impressively, less so South Lancashire

Thursday 5 August 2010

Shifty's Season Preview Part 3

Wolves

Last season, Mick McCarthy's lot battled their way to safety, although they owe their survival to the sides below them all being absolute murder. During the summer, McCarthy has been busy, raiding 2 of the sides who were below them for reinforcements- Steven Mouyokolo and Stephen Hunt signed from Hull, with Steven Fletcher arriving from Burnley. It remains to be seen how those 3, along with left-back Stephen Ward, will be able to tell when McCarthy bawls out in his Yorkshire (note Yorkshire, NOT IRISH) drawl, "Stephen! Fookin get stuck in and lump it!" who is actually required to fookin get stuck in and lump it. During the World Cup, McCarthy also demonstrated a shocking lack of basic knowledge of the game- a couple of his "highlights" including:
  • "Is that the Veron?" upon seeing Juan Sebastian Veron in central midfield for Argentina. When the taxpayer is generously funding your appearance as an "expert" in South Africa, the least you can do is do a bit of research
  • "Can they not have Smith marking him?" upon seeing that Greece had deployed Sokratis Papastathopoulos as a man-marker on Lionel Messi

Still, he had one advantage over Mark Lawrenson in that this writer did not feel compelled to complain to OFCOM about him.

Back to Wolves. They stayed up last season but the football wasn't exactly awe-inspiring, as they managed just 32 goals last season. McCarthy often played just Kevin Doyle on his own upfront, with 5 in midfield- it remains to be seen if the signing of Fletcher will lead to a change to 2 upfront or a place either on the bench or in a wide midfield position for one of them. Behind the front line, new man Hunt will add endeavour on the wing, while Serbian Nenad Milijas will look to establish himself as a regular, having offered creativity and the odd long-range thunderbolt sporadically last season. Other than that, the midfield is hard-working and combative, but offers little penetration, and the passing ranges of centre-backs Jody Craddock and Christophe Berra are limited, although Craddock did get his head on a number of Milijas set-pieces last season- indeed, he was their 2nd top scorer. With 5. All told, they look set for another struggle, with failure the likely end result.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 19th

How they will cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Wolves have a decent record of promoting academy graduates (Wayne Hennessey and Stephen Ward 2 of the most recent to make the 1st team) and much of their Championship-winning side who were recruited as promising youngsters from smaller clubs are still at Molineux

Wednesday 4 August 2010

Shifty's Season Preview Part 2

Everton

As previously explained, the teams are being written up in a completely random order. This is to ensure each team gets a fair write-up (I'll probably be running round looking even more like a madman than normal to get them all done by next Saturday).

So to Everton. After a horrific start to last season, both in terms of results and injuries, Everton did well to recover to 8th place, just missing out on a UEFA Cup (yes, I'm still calling it that) place. On the plus side, this means that their Thursdays are free this season. However, this does mean David Moyes has had little room to manoeuvre in the transfer market, a couple of young forwards notwithstanding.

Moyes has built a strong team at Goodison Park: the spine of the team is strong, provided by the likes of Phil Neville, Tim Howard, Tony Hibbert, Johnny Heitinga (Howard Webb's first appointment at Goodison will be interesting) and the fit-again Phil Jagielka, with flair and incision coming from the impressive Steven Pienaar, Mikel Arteta and Russian Lad Dinyar Bilyaletdinov. In attack, in Louis Saha and Yakubu they have 2 players who, injury permitting, could score 20 goals a season. Their resurgence in the 2nd half of the season (in the 2010 table, they are 3rd) was built mainly on an excellent home record of 11-6-2, as well as developing a handy knack of scoring late goals- 21 of their 60 league goals were scored in the last 15 minutes of games.

What will work against them is the continuing splashing of the petrodollars by other sides, but as long as they can stay clear of injuries, then with 1 or 2 additions (more on them in a minute) they can better last season's 8th place finish

Sticking-my-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 6th

How they'll cope with the new home-grown rule: Well, seeing as you ask, they might be a bit short. Hibbert, Jagielka, Neville, Baines, Osman, Vaughan and Anichebe are their only current homegrown players (Jack Rodwell is not yet 21, and therefore does not count as 1 of the required 8). Don't be surprised to see them linked with a loan move for David Bentley

Bet: Everton to finish in the top 6 @7/4 with Stan James

Tuesday 3 August 2010

Shifty's Season Preview Part 1

It's that time of year again: Season Preview time! Here's part 1 of a few, it'll probably be a mad dash to get them all on in time for next Saturday, but I'll manage it. Hopefully.

Stoke City

Right, hold on a minute here, you're thinking. Why not start with Arsenal, as per the alphabet, you ask. Well, as I hinted at earlier, this has sprung up on me quickly, and to start with Arsenal and go alphabetically would probably not give me enough time to properly write up the chances of the Ts and the Ws of the league.

So we begin with Stoke, who, after last season's 11th place finish, have established themselves in the league, and also the shinpads of many of its players (get well soon, Aaron Ramsey). Their summer transfer activity has so far been notable for its complete non-existence, although that could change if boss Tony Pulis finds a player with a throw-in akin to that of Rory Delap who can actually contribute in open play. Transfer speculation linking them with Carlton Cole is said to be wide of the mark, though.

Their playing "style" is well-documented, and despite managing an improvement from 12th place in 08/09 to 11th last season, the football didn't improve- don't count on that changing this term unless Pulis plans a late swoop for a ball-playing midfielder more comfortable in possession than the likes of Salif Diao, Delap, Amdy Faye or Glenn Whelan. One area they did improve on last season was their away form- while just 4 away wins is still nothing to shout about, it nevertheless represents progress.

While their defence is hard-as-nails, marshalled by a rejuvenated Thomas Sorensen (who developed a handy knack of saving penalties, which helped cover the backsides of a defence who gave away far too many of them), they simply must score more than last season's meagre total of 34 goals with winger Matthew Etherington top scorer with just 5. Etherington, like Sorensen, has found a new lease of life at the Britannia Stadium, and providing Pulis can find a new frontman (or get more goals out of his current motley crew of James Beattie, Dave Kitson, Mamady Sidibe and Ricardo Fuller) to get on the end of Etherington's deliveries, they should comfortably survive again without ever threatening the top 8.

Sticking-me-neck-on-the-line-predicted-finishing-position: 11th

How will they cope with the home-grown rule: Fine. Pulis' squad largely contains British players

Bet: Worst disciplinary record @ 5/1 with Victor Chandler. They'll battle it out with Blackburn (literally on October 2) for this somewhat dubious honour

Monday 2 August 2010

Holy jeebus, the new season has come up on me quickly

Ahoy-ahoy!


With the new season starting this/next weekend, it's time for me to get my season previews up. Rest assured, folks, these will all be on in time for the big kick-off, along with a guide to how each of the Premier League teams are looking regarding the new "home-grown" rule, and no shortage of tips.

Also, anyone else noticed the relative lack of publicity for the new Premier League season compared to previous seasons? Have Sky Sports finally accepted that it's actually not the best league around, and don't particularly want to push a league containing the players exposed so ruthlessly by Germany at the World Cup?

And another thing. Sky are unhappy about OFCOM forcing them to let other providers offer their sports channels. WE GET IT RUPERT
I love this woman