She Should Have Died Hereafter

Wellity wellity. No Simpsons quote or metal lyric for the title today. There may not be any training sessions for me to pull off this laptop, but let's ramble on about a few issues anyway

So still no news regarding whose derriere shall be filling the 2nd Mercedes for 2017, although it seems we can whittle down the shortlist further still from where we were this time last week; it would be a major surprise if the seat was occupied by someone other than Valtteri Bottas or Pascal Wehrlein, both of whom were discussed on here last time

Were Mercedes faced with a straight choice based purely on who'd be more likely to get the better results on-track in 2017, one would tend to lean towards the laconic Finn Bottas (are there any non-laconic Finns out there? I'm struggling to think of one) thanks to his greater experience (the true money-no-object, free-of-contractual-obligations choice would actually be Max Verstappen, however that's not a realistic proposition right now. Someone at Mercedes might make the call, though, just to tick a box). Relative to Wehrlein, though, his contractual situation is far more complicated than first seems. While Mercedes junior Wehrlein obviously currently has no deal in place for 2017, Bottas is not only tied into his own contract for 2017, but he's also supposedly a key part of a number of other Williams deals, including their title sponsor. With 18 year old Lance Stroll (more on him later) in 1 car, Williams need an experienced driver in their lead car for numerous reasons on and off the circuit (they simply cannot rely on Stroll to be a regular, consistent points scorer from Melbourne even with his considerable not-so-secret testing miles from this year, and Martini can't use someone who's not old enough to drink their products in many countries to promote them).

On Stroll, there's no escaping the fact that his place in Team Willy is at least partially due to the not entirely unconnected truck full of cash (pictured below) that has been sent their way courtesy of Mr Lawrence Stroll. It would also greatly aid his development were he to be paired with an experienced driver whose setup he could nick as and when required- it would also help with expectation management, as nobody expects Stroll to consistently beat Bottas, whereas if he were routinely trounced by a fellow rookie, it might hurt the poor lad's feelings. It's quite fitting, though, that he's picked 18 as his driver number- not only is it his age, it'll also make for a smooth transition for a couple of years down the line when he's renting a drive from Dale Coyne

Elsewhere on the grid, the 3 remaining seats (2x Manor, 1 Sauber/Team Ericsson) almost certainly won't all be filled until the 2nd Mercedes seat is filled (Wehrlein will almost certainly end up in 1 of the 4). All 3 seats will primarily be determined by the size of the bag of wonga the driver can bring. Esteban Gutierrez may have burned his bridges at Sauber after his previous stint (and he's certainly done so with Haas this year) but assuming he's still in Carlos Slim's good books, he could land himself one of the Manor seats. The prospects for Felipe Nasr (not to be confused with Felipe Massa- that's literally the first line of his Wikipedia entry), however, look less promising, as he's lost his Banco do Brasil backing, and in 2 years with Sauber didn't outperform Marcus Ericsson by a sufficient manner to warrant a move further up the grid. Perhaps he's destined to be this decade's version of Pedro Diniz - well-backed, semi-competent lower end of midfield runner who disappeared from view as soon as the sponsors' cheques dried up

Not yet sure what to make of Arsenal centre back Gabriel. Give me a little more time

There's been no shortage of howling (at the moon?) recently about possible Russian influence in the recent presidential election. If (and given the lack of any actual evidence it's a sizeable if) true, then manipulating an event as relatively trivial as the World Cup (being played on their own patch no less) is surely within their capabilities. Therefore, even accounting for the fact that Leicester City have broken ante-post gambling, the 40/1 currently available on them to win their own tournament is worth a sniff







JUST BECAUSE YOU THINK YOU'RE A ROBIT, DOESN'T MAKE YOU A ROBIT

They Didn't Have Lord Huggington?

Ahoy-ahoy

As if 2016 hadn't seen enough uncertainty, newly crowned World Champion Nico Rosberg decided he'd lob some more of it into the 2017 F1 driver market by announcing his retirement. therefore, as advertised in this week's Autosport magazine (no, really) there's a vacant cockpit next to Lewis Hamilton for next season, which seemed as good an excuse as any to jolt this bad boy back into life and have a looksee at some of the likely (and less likely- I'm looking at you, Fernando) contenders for the drive, factoring in not just driver capabilities, but also their relative levels of availability

PASCAL WEHRLEIN
Certainly the most "available" of all the contenders (without a 2017 drive locked in anywhere and part of the Mercedes junior programme) and has already tested for the team (and, not insignificantly, on the larger 2017 tyres), Wehrlein had a very good first half of 2016 with Manor, blowing away rent-a-ride Rio Haryanto (who obviously won't be part of the Merc discussions, but may yet reappear somewhere on the grid in 2017) and scoring the team's only point in Austria. However, when fellow Mercedes junior Esteban Ocon (more on him later) took over from Haryanto, Wehrlein suddenly found himself with a much stronger team-mate, who ended up showing him the way home by the end of the season and indeed earning a considerable move up the grid next season to Force India- it's understood Force India had their pick of the 2, and opted for Ocon- given his availability, one can't help but feel the longer the seat remains vacant, the less likely it is that Wehrlein will fill the cockpit, as there's no other loose ends that need tying up. Wehrlein does tick many of the boxes, and even if he doesn't land the grand prize of the Mercedes drive, the ensuing market upheaval should land him in an F1 seat somewhere for 2017

VALTTERI BOTTAS
Has the advantage over Wehrlein in terms of experience and only has 1 year left on his Williams contract (and unlikely to be earning close to Rosberg/Hamilton money there), so while obviously not as completely available as Wehrlein, it's hardly unthinkable that he could be available, particularly given the presence in his management of one T Wolff (yes, that one). However, he's not exactly been blowing away a winding-down Felipe Massa over the last 3 years in what has admittedly been a poor car and probably wouldn't be a huge threat to Hamilton and while at 27 is hardly a veteran, he's perhaps not seen as having the development potential of some of the other contenders. His departure would also leave Williams in a potentially very weak position, with 18-year-old Lance Stroll making his debut for them in 2017, although turning down the advances of their engine supplier may leave them in an awkward position further down the line, although running Wehrlein for a year could help placate Lauda and Wolff

ESTEBAN OCON
Another Mercedes junior, won European F3 (beating Max Verstappen along the way) in 2014 and GP3 in 2015. Graduated to F1 with Manor midway through 2016 and before long was matching (and beating) Wehrlein (was particularly impressive in challenging conditions in Brazil), to such an extent that he's landed a very decent drive for 2017 with Force India where (assuming he doesn't land the grand prize) he should give Sergio Perez a very hard time indeed. Has that Force India contract for 2017 (possibly longer) but said contract does supposedly have a release clause should Wolff and Lauda come calling- Force India could easily be compensated through a combination of money off their (considerable) Mercedes engine bill and/or the services of Wehrlein. Has arguably shown more in F1 than Wehrlein- not bad for a kid who was driving a touring car 6 months ago. Whatever happens, this guy is going to be worth watching in 2017

FERNANDO ALONSO
We'll keep this one short- not going to happen. Alonso has a redonkulously big contract with McLaren which, even if the team were willing to break (and they're not) Mercedes simply have not budgeted for. It's important to factor in the wider context here- a few weeks ago Mercedes announced they were reducing the number of cars they were fielding in DTM from 8 to 6. They'll have budgeted for 2017 some time ago and, if anything, will be minded to reduce the expenditure that they had budgeted for Rosberg's salary (which was said to be considerably less than that of Alonso and Vettel, for that matter). And that's before we consider how McLaren would fill the hole that would create alongside their new number 2 Stoffel Vandoorne (that's not his status, it's his new driver number)

KIMI RAIKKONEN
Never mind not available, Kimi probably doesn't even know yet that Rosberg has retired. After the final race, Kimi traditionally embarks on a 2-month long period of vodka-induced hibernation in the far north of Finland, and then about a week before the first test of 2017, Ferrari send an enormous vat of coffee to sober him up in time to get impressively close to Vettel. Allegedly

OTHERS
All the "big" names are under contract, therefore making any bid to extract a Red Bull, Ferrari or McLaren driver extremely costly. Carlos Sainz has been mentioned, and is a vastly under-rated driver with little immediate prospect of a promotion from Toro Rosso to the senior Red Bull squad, but Renault have already had an approach for his services rejected- if Horner and Marko are prepared to rebuff their own engine supplier, what chance have Mercedes got? Neither Jenson Button nor Felipe Massa are likely to be coming out of retirement (and, frankly, neither delivered performances in 2016 that would merit being rewarded with such a drive). These are far from ideal circumstances for Mercedes- they've also got to hedge against the possibility of Hamilton himself retiring should he secure another title, to pursue his hip-hop career (or whatever it is that he does), and they also need someone who can push him for results now

Your move, Toto




I AM HEVY DEBT, NO WAY YOU CAN PAY ME

Oh My God, We're Back Again

In a strange coincidence (honest) this post, like the last one, is being made amidst intense speculation regarding the Manchester United manager's job. But we'll leave that to one side and instead look forward to Euro 2016 (no promises about big long mahoosive detailed guides to each team)

As regular readers (both of you) will know, we do enjoy looking for some outsider bets, so let's have a look at some of those further down the Top Scorer betting odds (as well as a few ramblings about the tournament itself):

With this being possibly his last major international tournament (certainly his final Euros), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (33/1) might never have a better chance to claim a tournament Golden Boot. He spearheads a Sweden side that features plenty of young talent to supply him (watch out for Jimmy Durmaz cutting in from the flanks) and they should progress from a Group E which features a talented Belgium side missing their best centre-back, a deeply uninspiring Italy side (potentially with gaping holes in its central midfield) and a frankly rotten Ireland side, so he should easily get amongst the goals early on before progression to a potentially winnable Round of 16 game (more on that later)

It's safe to assume that Germany will go some way into the tournament, thereby rendering any number of their players as possible contenders. Rather than the obvious Muller/Reus/Gomez/Ozil (all the very best in your retirement, Miroslav Klose) shouts (all of whom after busy club seasons are likely to be rotated at some point), it's worth instead having a small wager on Bayer Leverkusen attacking midfielder Karim Bellarabi (80/1), who could force his way into Jogi Loew's starting XI with a place on the right flank likely to be available if Muller plays centrally in Mario Gotze's absence

And because any article on here featuring betting tips wouldn't be complete without a >100/1 shot, Group D is exceptionally wide open behind Spain (and perhaps even including them- this is still largely the same side that looked so lethargic in Brazil 2 years ago, a tournament also immediately preceded by an all-Madrid Champions League final), thus any number of players could rack up a few goals. Worth a punt in that regard is Turkey's leading marksman Burak Yilmaz (125/1), as prolific as anyone on his day and with a very decent selection of attacking midfielders behind him

How's everyone getting on with their Euro 2016 sticker books, by the way? About 70% completed over here. Most importantly, Liam Boyce has been acquired (although still a long way short on shinies. Get in touch for swapsies)

Hosts France suffered a significant blow today with the news that Raphael Varane will miss the tournament (possibly to spend more time with his brothers Donatello, Leonardo and Michaelangelo), with Sevilla's Adil Rami called up as a replacement. This leaves Didier Deschamps with 2 likely central defensive partnerships: Laurent Koscielny and Jeremy Mathieu (downside: slow and inexperienced) or Koscielny with Eliaquim Mangala (downside: features Eliaquim Mangala). They should still easily top their group though (with Romania, Switzerland and Albania likely to play out some dreary, low-scoring affairs between themselves)

Finally, one can't help but wonder what Portugal will be thinking going into their final Group F game with Hungary in Lyon on June 22nd. A win will most likely see them top the group, setting up a Round of 16 clash with Group E's runner up (almost certainly Sweden, Belgium or Italy), while any other result could leave them in 2nd place, setting up a clash with the 2nd placed team from Group B (likely to be Russia- that group finishes on the 20th). One can't help but think the latter assignment could be the more appealing







PARTY IN HINCHTOWN