Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group D

Germany will be expected to progress from this group ahead of 3 closely-matched sides: Serbia will be taking part in their 1st World Cup on their own, while Ghana and Australia will both be looking to equal their achievements in 2006 of making the 2nd round

Germany
Regardless of form, fitness of key players, etc, they always seem to be there or there abouts, and Jogi Loew's side look like contenders again. While the loss of captain Michael Ballack is an obvious blow, Bastian Schweinsteiger has reinvented himself this season from temperamental, flaky wideman into central midfield powerhouse, and will be expected to thrive in central midfield, with Stuttgart midfielder Sami Khedira his most likely partner, with Werder Bremen stars Mesut Ozil and Marko Marin offering creativity and thrust. Upfront, despite indifferent club form, Mario Gomez, Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski can all be relied upon for the Nationalmannschaft, with relative newcomers Stefan Kiessling, Cacau and Thomas Muller also likely to travel as backup. In defence, Loew has confirmed that Schalke keeper Manuel Neuer will be his 1st choice, ahead of Tim Wiese and Hans-Jorg Butt. Infront of Neuer is a defence which conceded just 5 goals during qualifying- in Ballack's absence, Philipp Lahm has taken the captain's armband, and he's likely to start at left-back, with Arne Friedrich or Andreas Beck at right back. In central defence, Per Mertesacker has matured into one of Europe's best centre-backs, with his partner likely to be Heiko Westermann. They do appear to be hitting some kind of form right now, and have plenty of options in attack- they should do well in South Africa, and can never be ruled out as potential winners

Serbia
Raddy Antic's side qualified impressively, finishing ahead of France, but Antic will have a number of concerns about his side going into the World Cup:

• 1st choice goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic hasn't played much football this season. Out of favour at Sporting CP, he went on loan to Wigan in January, but only made a handful of appearances for Roberto Martinez's men, and didn't exctly convince in those
• Star striker Nikola Zigic is another player who has been short of match action this season, with David Villa keeping him out of the Valencia side (admittedly, he can't really have too many complaints abouth that)
• At 31, Dejan Stankovic is starting to get on a bit (this, incidentally, will be his 3rd World Cup for a 3rd different country). His pace has already faded to such an extent that he's been used by Inter in a much deeper role this season. It remains to be seen how he will cope with a World Cup playing possibly 7 more games after playing 43 games for Inter this season
• Their most recent warm-up match was a disaster, losing 1-0 to New Zealand. The travelling Serbian fans were so disgruntled with their side that The Great Leader Nemanja Vidic had to address them on the stadium PA system to calm them down. They obeyed

Given all these concerns, and throw in the fact that, Zigic apart, there's a lack of strength in depth in attack, and it's certainly possible that Serbia could fail to make it out of their group. However, given the weaknesses of the other 2 nations in the group, they should just make the 2nd round, and a probable meeting with England

Australia
Little has changed with Australia since their last-16 exit in 2006- coach Guus Hiddink has been replaced by his compatriot Pim Verbeek, and many of the players from 2006 are still in the squad- Mark Schwarzer will still be in goals, his defence will still most likely contain the likes of Patrick Kisnorbo, Lucas Neill, Scott Chipperfield and Craig Moore, while the midfield should still feature Brett Emerton, Vince Grella and Tim Cahill, with Harry Kewell operating on the left of a 3 man strikeforce. The crux of this is that most of those players are now the wrong side of 30- Verbeek's squad is short of strikers, too, and he risked alienating some of those players with his criticism of Grella and Cahill's tackling in their warm-up game against New Zealand. They look likely to miss out on repeating their 2006 exploits

Ghana
Like Australia, they made the last 16 in 2006, but like Australia, they look ill-equipped to progress. Losing Michael Essien is a massive blow, but the team looks suspect even with him there. In goals, there are doubts over Richard Kingson's fitness- should he miss out, there is no experienced back-up option for coach Milovan Rajevac. Defensively they look fairly sound, and while Essien will be absent, Sulley Muntari will add thrust and dynamism to the midfield. They do, however, struggle to score goals- in 5 matches during the African Nations Cup, they managed just 4 goals, and if they fail to improve on this, then they're going home

Bets for Group D:

Germany to win Group D: best price 10/11 with Blue Square. This is an insanely good price. Get on it people
Serbia Top Goalscorer Milos Krasic: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Australia to finish bottom of Group D: best price 11/8 with Blue Square
Ghana to score under 3.5 goals: best price 3/5 with bwin

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group C

This group looks fairly clear-cut: England, widely fancied as potential winners of the tournament, will be expected to progress along with an ever-improving USA side, ahead of a Slovenia team short on creativity and top-level experience, and an inconsistent Algeria side

England
Even by English standards, there is much hype about Fabio Capello's team, after they qualified with relative ease. Capello has brought discipline to the team, and has also managed to shoehorn Lampard and Gerrrd into the same team. Of his 30-man squad, it will be interesting to see who makes the final 23-man squad, to see if potential wildcards such as Adam Johnson, Darren Bent and Joe Cole, along with the injury-prone Ledley King, are retained. In the group, one of the bets I'll be recommending will be for them to finish on 7 points- this would require one of the following 3 possibilities to happen:

• The USA stun a lacklustre England and claim a draw from their opening game
• Over-confident after beating USA, England take their foot off the gas and slip to a draw with Algeria
• Having already qualified after winning their first 2 games, Capello makes wholesale changes for the final game against Slovenia and a reserve side can only manage a draw

Of course, there is a chance that, should all 3 of the above happen, Capello's side could face an embarassing early exit, but that is extremely unlikely. More likely is a semi-final exit at the hands of Holland or Brazil

USA
Last year's run to the Confederations Cup final confirmed the USA's status as an emerging force in world football, with an incredibly hard-working and industrious side knocking out Spain along the way. The squad contains a number of players plying their trade at the highest level in Europe, among them established Premier League players Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Jonathan Spector- remember also Landon Donovan's successful loan spell at Everton earlier this season. However, their results since the Confederations Cup have been inconsistent, and after a strong showing in 2002, they then flopped at the 2006 World Cup. Still, they should get through the group, although that may be as far as they get, with their 2002 conquerors Germany potentially awaiting them in the 2nd round.

Algeria
The Desert Foxes have qualified for the first time since 1986, and coach Rabah Saadane, who led them to Mexico bck then, is in charge once again. They have some talented individuals, namely Wolfsburg's Karim Ziani and Portsmouth pair Hassan Yebda and Nadir Belhadj, but have displayed some staggering inconsistency in the last 12 months; their 1-0 playoff win over Egypt that earned them their place in South Africa last autumn was then followed by a 4-0 loss against the same nation in the African Nations earlier this year, a tournament in which they reached the semi-finals despite an early 3-0 loss to Malawi. In that match, Saadane experimented with a 3-5-2 formation, which has since been abandoned for 4-4-2, with veteran playmaker Rafik Saifi likely to play just off a lone frontman. However, it's hard to see them progressing from the group, given their inconsistency, and also due to the lack of a convincing goalkeeper

Slovenia
This nation of just 2 million people has qualified for only its 2nd World Cup, beating a much-fancied Russia side in the play-offs. Expect Matjaz Kek's side to line up in a fairly standard 4-4-2 formation, with Bochum forward Zlatko Dedic running the frontline playing off targetman Milivoje Novakovic of FC Koln. They will most likely be well-organised and able to keep hold of the ball, but lack a creative edge to help create chances for Dedic and Novakovic, and as such it's unlikely that they'll be providing too much trouble for the defences of the stronger teams

The bets for Group C:

England to win 7 points: best price 11/5 with Bodog
USA stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 13/8 with bet365
Algeria to finish bottom of Group C: best price 11/10 with expekt.com
Slovenia top goalscorer Zlatko Dedic: best price 10/3 with Skybet

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group B

Much has been written about Argentina under Diego Maradona, but they still arrive in South Africa as one of the contenders for the trophy, despite being widely written off due to some of Maradona's selection decisions. Of the other 3 teams in the group, Nigeria would appear to be Argentina's closest challengers ahead of a dour Greece side and a South Korea side who look a shadow of the side who memorably made the semi-finals in 2002

Argentina
A chaotic qualifying campaign and a somewhat scattergun selection policy were the hallmarks of the beginning of Maradona's stint in charge, but in recent months there seems to be a more settled look to the side, even if some of the selection decisions Maradona has made for his finals squad are nothing short of baffling (the previously unheralded Ariel Garce and Juan Mercier, along with 36-year-old Martin Palermo in; 136-cap Javier Zanetti, Gabriel Milito, Esteban Cambiasso and Lisandro Lopez out). In goals, Mardona's decision to trust AZ Alkmaar rookie Sergio Romero in goals has been an inspired one- he'll be protected by, in Diego's own words, 4 centre-backs (this his reasoning behind leaving out Zanetti)- infront of them will be Javier Mascherano, so while it may not be pretty, expect Argentina not to concede many goals. Going forward, the last person you would expect to see in central midfield would most likely be ex-Manchester United flop/"F***ing superb player" Juan Sebastian Veron- so you'll never guess who Maradona's gone and picked next to Mascherano. Yep, Seba Veron- he hasn't got the legs these days, but can still pass a ball. Upfront, Argentina have a wealth of attacking options- Messi, Aguero (Maradona's son-in-law, by the way), Tevez, Milito, Palermo, Pastore and Lavezzi to name but 7- providing they can work together, Maradona could well become only the 2ndmn, after Franz Beckenbaur, to win the World Cup as player and manager- now that would make for an eventful press conference

Nigeria
The Super Eagles have qualified once again, and seem to have fostered a better team spirit and are better organised under Swedish coach Lars Lagerback. In Vincent Enyeama, they have one of Africa's best goalkeepers, and he has infront of him a strong defence that was the backbone of their progress to the semi-finals of the African Nations Cup earlier this year. Infront of them they have the likes of Dickson Etuhu and John Obi Mikel, who while offering tenacity, do lack creativity, a problem replicated throughout the team- Lagerback's concern won't be with the ability of Yakubu and Obafemi Martins, it will be who will create chances for them. However, as long as they can keep themselves together as a team, they should progress from the group

South Korea
Semi-finalists in 2002, but have been a shadow of that side since then, failing to get out of their group in 2006. Coach Huh Jung-Moo's side contain a handful of survivors from 2002, amongst them 37-year-old goalkeeper Lee Woon-Jae. Going forward, they do have some quality- another 2002 survivor, Park Ji-Sung is one of their "Fab Four" of attacking players, also including Celtic's Ki Sung Yong, Bolton's Lee Chung-Yong and Park Chu-Young of Monaco- and based on their qualifying campaign and subsequent friendlies, scoring goals won't be an issue. However, it is the defence where there are concerns- they haven't had a stable central defensive pairing, and they have shown a worrying fondness for conceding goals at set pieces. If Huh Jung-Moo cannot correct this, then they're going home early

Greece
Was the word in 2004, but has since been replaced by The Bird. Veteran German coach Otto Rehhagel is still in charge and the football is still pretty dreadful- not much has changed since their triumphant showing in 2004, and their less triumphant showing in 2008. Expect them to be robust, physical and a threat from set pieces (watch out South Korea), and don't be surprised if Rehhagel opts for a back 3 (or 5), although one can assume that, even if they manage to make it out of the group, the Greek FA won't exactly be liberal with their bonuses. Panathinaikos youngster Sotiris Ninis has been tipped as a star of the future, and if the defence behind him remains solid, he could create the chances for the likes of Fanis Gekas, Georgios Samaras and Angelos Charisteas (scorer of the winner in the EURO 2004 final) to fire the Greeks into the 2nd round

The bets for Group B:
Argentina to win Group B: best price 5/11 with expekt.com
Nigeria to win 4 points: best price 3/1 with Paddy Power
South Korea top goalscorer Park Chu-Young: best price 5/1 with Betfred
Greece stage of elimination 2nd round: best price 11/4 with sportingbet

Shifty's World Cup Preview: Group A

Right, time for me to start looking forward to the World Cup, with kick-off in South Africa just 3 weeks away. Between now and then, I'll be going through each group individually with this blog's usual mix of statistical-based analysis and witty banter, with Graeme hopefully weighing in with his tuppence worth along the way

Group A
This looks like being a surprisingly open group, with a below-par France up against hosts South Africa, an ever-improving Mexico and a Uruguay side containing a number of individuals playing at the highest level in Europe

France
After a disastrous EURO 2008, the question everyone was asking was "Who will replace Raymond Domenech as coach?" The answer was, er, Raymond Domenech (although Laurent Blanc takes over after the tournament). France were unconvincing to say the least in qualifying, only making it through by their fingertips. Domenech has again made some baffling selection decisions (Samir Nasri and Karim Benzema didn't even make the final 30, while Andre-Pierre Gignac did) and there's still a great deal of uncertainty in some positions (William Gallas has yet to find a regular central defensive patner, while the identity of their main striker is anyone's guess). If they don't get going quickly, then another embarassing group-stage exit beckons

South Africa
World Cup host ntions have traditionally performed well in their home tournaments, but South Africa aren't being considered as potential winners by anyone outside the most optimistic branches of their own, vuvuzela-playing support. A look at their squad reveals a distinct lack of experience at the highest level (only 5 of their squad play in one of Europe's strongest leagues), and coaching changes, along with mixed friendly results, have not helped their cause. Still, they were impressive in last summer's Confederations Cup, reaching the semi-finals, and are arguably best-placed to sneak into the 2nd round if either France or Mexico slip up

Mexico
Javier Aguirre returned to the helm after Sven-Goran Eriksson's disastrous tenure as coach came to an end, and has led the team to a 5th consecutive World Cup- they went out in the 2nd round in each of the last 4 tournaments, so the target for Aguirre's men is simple: the quarter-finals are the target. With an increasing number of players plying their trade in Europe (one to watch: left-winger Andres Guardado) and plenty of options in attack (soon-to-be Manchester United centre-forward Javier Hernandez among them) supported by a strong defence (although doubts linger over Rafael Marquez's match fitness), Aguirre's side are well-equipped to advance from the group stage- finishing top will be of importance to Mexico so as to avoid a likely meeting with Argentina, their conquerors after extra-time in 2006 (y'all must surely remember THAT Maxi Rodriguez goal), in the 2nd round

Uruguay
The last time Uruguay got beyond the group stages of the World Cup (Italia 90), their manager was one Oscar Washington Tabarez. Back in 2006, Tabarez returned to the fold, and led Uruguay to South Africa, but only just- they needed to play-off victory over Costa Rica after finishing 5th in the South American qualifying group. In attack they do have some quality individuals, most notably Diego Forlan, Luis Suarez and Nicolas Lodeiro, while behind them expect the usual "physical" stuff from Uruguay. It's a style unlikely to make them many friends, and it's unlikely to see them get past the group stage

So that's the tems in group A, here's a few bets worth thinking about in Group A:
France to win 4 points: best price 4/1 with Bodog
Mexico stage of elimination- quarter-finals: best price 11/2 with bet365
Soth Africa top goalscorer Teko Modise: best price 12/1 with Skybet
Uruguay group goals scored lass than goals conceded: best price 20/19 with bwin

Shifty's Season Review Part 4

Manchester United
What I Said: They have every reason to belive that they can claim a 4th European Cup and a 19th Premier League title. Expect Ben Foster to be gradually phased in as 1st choice goalkeeper
What Actually Happened: Missed out on both titles, with only the Carling Cup being successfully defended. Poor form early in the season pushed Foster out of contention for the England squad, and may lead to him being one of a number of players through the Old Trafford exit door this summer

Portsmouth
What I Said: With minimal investment in an already limited squad, expect Pompey to be near the bottom come January, and praying for another miraculous escape
What Actually Happened: The financial situation deteriorated to such an extent that Pompey became the first Premier League club to be placed into administration, with the subsequent 9-point deduction merely serving to confirm what already looked like certain relegation. They at least went down with a fight, with some decent end-of-season form giving them a glimmer of hope for the FA Cup Final

Stoke City
What I Said: It won't be pretty, and may require a couple more shrewd signings, but expect Stoke to survive again
What Actually Happened: Dear sweet Jeebus it wasn't pretty (just like Aaron Ramsey's leg), even with the addition of Tuncay, but Stoke comfortably survived, notching up 2 more points than they did last season. This is a crucial summer for Tony Pulis and his side- how much ambition do they have, now that they have established themselves in the league? Will they look to play some more stylish football next season?

Sunderland
What I Said: A talented midfield and forward line (with potential for further investment in the squad in January) suggests that mid-table is very much achievable
What Actually Happened: Finished 13th after a consistently inconsistent season. Darren Bent's goals (many of them 1st, as previously reported here) not only won this writer a fair wad of cash over the season, but also got him into Fabio Capello's initial 30 man squad for the World Cup. Just 2 away wins in the league all season, though, sugest that there is still work for Steve Bruce to do

Tottenham Hotspur
What I Said: Spurs shouldn't concede too many once again, while strength in depth in midfield and attack suggests that a top-half finish is where they're heading
What Actually Happened: A great season saw Harry Redknapp's side finish 4th. They're still a long way off the level of those sides ahead of them, and demonstrated some worrying inconsistencies particularly against the smaller teams in the league (Stoke, Hull, Wolves and Burnley all took points off them), but they showed plenty of admirable qualities in trumping Man City, Aston Villa and Liverpool in the race for 4th

West Ham
What I Said: A quiet summer on the transfer market demonstrating Zola's faith in some talented youngsters
What Actually Happened: Never got going, and ended up in a relegation battle they seemed ill-equipped for. The January signing of Ilan proved to be of paramount importance, as the Hammers would have been in even more bother (only goal difference would have kept them ahead of Burnley) than they already were- it could be credibly argued that they were only saved by having 3 teams below them who were, let's be honest, pretty terrible. Zola's dismissal came as no real surprise

Wigan and Wolves both stayed up without ever looking like doing much more, but both did it in completely different ways. While Wolves plundered just 32 goals all season, and were generally pretty poor to watch, Wigan at least gave us some entertainment, and some remarkable scorelines. Home victories over Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were offset by some utter gubbings- three 4-0 losses (including one at Portsmouth!), a 5-0 loss at Old Trafford and of course 8-0 and 9-1 shellackings away at Chelsea and Spurs respectively

Shifty's Season Review Part 3

Fulham
What I Said: Mid-table obscurity, 1 or 2 more reinforcements may be required in order to compete in the Premier League and Europa League- Bobby Zamora hast to improve on last season's tally of 2 league goals
What Actually Happened: 12th counts as mid-table obscurity I guess. They didn't half compete in the Europa League, though, making it all the way to the final. Zamora's improvement brought him to the verges of the England squad

Hull City
What I Said: They will need to start in a similar manner to last season if they are to survive- it will be fascinating to see how US striker Jozy Altidore adapts to the Premier League. Phil Brown will need to demonstrate all his managerial skills in order to keep the Tigers roaring in the Premier League
What Actually Happened: Went down not roaring, but with something of a whimper. Brown "relieved of his duties" in February, replaced by Elephant Man Iain Dowie. How did Altidore get on? 1 league goal, 1 red card

Liverpool
What I Said: There is an over-riding feeling that last season was their best chance to win the league in many years. And they blew it. Now with Xabi Alonso departed, and doubts over the strength in depth in attack, if injuries affect Torres and Gerrard, they could lose touch with the lead
What Actually Happened: 7th place is most definitely out of touch with the lead. By all accounts, a dreadful season for the bin dippers. A revamp of the squad appears necessary, regardless of who the manager is come August

Manchester City
What I Said: They have spent money as if it is going out of fashion, although their bid for the Death Star looks likely to fail. If Mark Hughes can get his team set up the way he wants, then anywhere from 7th upwards should be considered a success
What Actually Happened: Finished 5th. Lost 3 derbies in injury time. Hughes got the sack just before Christmas, for falling short of the club's stated projected points tally of 70. Lost 3 derbies in injury time. Brought in Roberto Mancini, who seemed awfully keen on playing 3 defensive midfielders. Lost 3 derbies in injury time. Ended the season on 67 points. Did I mention that they lost 3 derbies in injury time?

Shifty's Premier League Season Review Part 2

Blackburn Rovers
What I Said: Didn't lose many games, playing a "pragmatic" style. If they can find a regular source of goals, mid-table beckons. Sam Allardyce's side have alos finished bottom of the disciplinary table in 4 of the last 5 seasons
What Actually Happened: Finished 10th, despite not having a single player reach double figures in the league. Even more surprisingly, though, they finished 8th in the disciplinary table. 2 fewer yellow cards and, if Fulham beat Atletico Madrid tomorrow night, they'd be in the Europa League!

Birmingham City
What I Said: Expect low-scoring, binary games. If they can keep a few clean sheets, they look the best-placed of the newly-promoted teams to stay up
What Actually Happened: Stayed up comfortably in 9th, after a 15-match unbeaten run during the winter. 20 of 38 games saw under 2.5 goals, with Joe Hart in goals keeping 10 clean sheets (Maik Taylor managed one against Man Citeh). Ran out of steam a bit near the end of the season, though- Alex Mcleish will need to strengthen in order to avoid the onset of Second-Season syndrome

Bolton Wanderers
What I Said: Should be safe from relegation, but hard to see them challenging for a top 10 place. Ho hum
What Actually Happened: Finished 14th after an unremarkable season. Ho hum

Burnley
What I Said: Much will depend on whether their veterans can cope with the demands of the Premier League. Any side travelling to Turf Moor not fully on their game can expect to be turned over- expect some open games, with over 2.5 goals a bet to be considered
What Actually Happened: 24 defeats from 38 games tells us that their veterans did not cope, depsite some early-season scalps being claimed at Turf Moor. 23 of 38 games saw over 2.5 goals

Chelsea
What I Said: Expect either the Premier League title, the Champions League, or Ancelotti to be sacked
What Actually Happened: Premier League title was won, Jose Mourinho came back to send them meekly out of the Champions League, and Ancelotti's job looks safe as. An ageing squad will need a bit of refreshing in order to challenge again, though. Any new signings should introduce John Terry to their wives with extreme caution

Everton
What I Said: They may struggle to match last season's 5th place without 1 or 2 additions, but should be close to that position. European success is the one thing lacking from David Moyes' CV if he is to be considered a credible successor to Sir Alex Ferguson
What Actually Happened: An atrocious start (losing 6-1 at home to Arsenal, going on 66-1) and rotten luck with injuries hampered Everton's start to the season, but a strong second half of the season saw them finish 8th- if Fulham win the Europa League, then they will qualify for the Europa League through the Fair Play League. You heard it here first. Look up the Premier League disciplinary table.

With the Premier League Season Almost Over...

It's time to have a look back and see how my predictions for the season have fared. I've waded through this here blog's archives to dig out how I thought each team would get on this season, and will post them on here over then next couple of days. Here goes:

Arsenal

What I Said: If luck is on their side, they could come very close to the title:
What Actually Happened: Title challengers well into the spring before a late-season, Fabianski-inspired collapse left them in something of a no-man's land behind the top 2 but ahead of the madding, Champions League-chasing crowd

Aston Villa
What I Said: Departures from an already stretched squad could lead to a long, disappointing season, and Villa sliding down the table
What Actually Happened: Disappointment in the cups, but Villa have just about managed to hang onto the coat-tails of the top 4

Birmingham City:
What I Said: Likely to be dour and unambitious yet resolute and organised, look best placed of the newly promoted sides to stay up
What Actually Happened: ALex McLeish's side stayed up comfortably, with an excellent defensive record, albeit without many goals. Joe Hart's performances have surely earned him a place in the England squad for the World Cup

The rest will follow soon....

Election 2010

So, most of the media outlets have declared who they're backing in the election tomorrow: The Guardian, a fine publication in this writer's opinion, have declared their backing for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats (which does sound a bit like how band names used to sound, e.g. Iggy and the Stooges), while pretty much everyone else is backing the tories.

But one major publication has yet to declare its support for anyone, and although the tip would be to back a hung parliament, for this writer, this election is as simple as ABC.

Anyone But Conservative

Get into the tactical voting, folks. Labour defending a narrow majority against the tories? Vote Labour. Lib Dems targeting a tory seat? Vote Lib Dem. You get the idea

If you're after a bet, though, hung parliament is the way to go. Such a result would go a long way to explaining why the party leaders always look so happy