Friday 13 September 2013

Weekend Betting, 14th September

ALLOW ME TO BEG YOUR INDULGENCE!

This weekend is one of my favourites of the football season from a betting perspective- Scottish Cup 2nd Round time. I shall explain.

This is one of those rare, rare weekends where the punter genuinely has advantage to exploit over the bookmaker. The bookmakers may not admit it, but they're nowhere near as clued up on the relative strengths of the non-league sides in Scotland as those who regularly follow football at that level.

There are a few bankers to be had- Brora Rangers, Wick Academy, Edinburgh City, Inverurie Loco Works, Auchinleck Talbot, Turriff United, Fraserburgh and Spartans should all come through their ties with something to spare. As a general rule, expect most of the Highland League teams to progress in their ties with non-Highlands teams. Compared to the rest of the non-league scene in Scotland, the Highland League is very strong at the moment. A number of clubs, notably Brora, Nairn County & Formartine all have wealthy backers as they chase the play-off place at the end of next season which could earn them a place in the senior structure.

Nairn County represent the standout bet of the cup ties. Competition sponsors William Hill offer 19/5 on them winning at Linlithgow Rose, which is extremely generous considering the strength of Nairn's squad (including Daniel Moore & Stuart Leslie, 2 of the standout players at 3rd Division Elgin City last season, and former Ross County U20 captain Archie Mcphee) and their track record for raising their game in the cup competitions (just ask Clyde and Arbroath). Huntly also represent good value at Evens (again with Hills) at home to Preston Athletic

Of course, it's not just the Scottish Cup going on this weekend. There's plenty of fun to be had elsewhere, notably at Villa Park, where Aston Villa can continue their upward trend with another enterprising, vibrant display at home to a Newcastle side who were poor on their travels last season and, Coloccini and Santon aside, have a defence that still does not fully convince. Paddy Power will give you 6/5 on the home win. Going back up to Scotland for a moment, a viable case can be made for an away win in all 6 matches in the SPL- it would be no surprise to see at least 3 or 4 of Celtic, Aberdeen, ICT, Motherwell, Hibs and Dundee United claim 3 points this weekend.

And finally, just a wee reminder. If you're lucky enough to be a player with any Scottish team, then you're more than welcome to read this blog. Just don't actually place any bets based on what you read on here, eh?

Monday 12 August 2013

Graeme's Silly Bet is Back!

It's England v Scotland at Wembley on Wednesday- with that in mind, yours truly decided to resurrect an old feature on here for a match that we shall be attending. If you're in 1st Class on the 10am Edinburgh to London train tomorrow, say hello.

Shifty, in a state of post Ross County match drunkenness fame asked me to rekindle an old weekly post I did for him called "Graeme's Silly Bet" due to our impending visit to London for the upcoming Scotland vs England friendly to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the FA.
 
With the current run of my weekend football coupons it could be argued that all of my bets could be regarded as not just silly but financially damaging. I haven't won anything substantial in months. In fact I have never really won anything substantial.
 
So, for the match on Wednesday, and bear in mind that I haven't even researched the squads despite the SFA emailing me it all the time. My hot silly tip is going to be Scotland to win 1-0 with Kenny Miller scoring the winner after coming off the bench on the 81st minute for a farewell run out.
 
The bet: 1-0 Scotland, Kenny Miller 1st Scorer at 125/1 with Paddy Power
 
We'll be coming..

Thursday 1 August 2013

SPFL Fantasy Football Preview (Hopefully all in 1 part)

It's that time of year again, where we all sign up for various fantasy football leagues. We run our own one for the SPFL (I think that's what it's called now), so here's a preview of what to expect from the (newly expanded, in the spirit of league reconstruction) league this season.

This writer spoke to a number of the competitors in this season's league- here's a tastefully edited version of their thoughts:

Duguid:
Scotty Duguid has been an astute competitor in SPL fantasy football for a few years now. Here's what he had to say about this season's contest:
"I think the expansion of the league will make this year harder than Rory in the Ross County changing rooms. Hoping some of the unknown skills of the newbies will knock Brucey off his perch (and cause another shoulder injury)". An Aberdeen fan, he optimistically hopes for a top 4 finish for Derek Mcinnes' side, but has already warned off other teams eyeing up the Dons' more traditional 9th place.

Rory:
Another experienced fantasy football competitor who will be hoping for an improvement on last season's mid-table finish. Here are his erudite thoughts for the season ahead:
"I think Scott Duguid will win the league this year. With his erectile dysfunction (are we allowed to say erectile dysfunction?- Ed) problems it's been a while since he found anything hard. With big changes amongst several teams it will be hard to pick players. Hooper going makes it difficult to pick a Celtic top scorer. Motherwell and County have had massive overhauls- picking players from these teams will be difficult. Additionally, picking any player from Hearts' makeshift squad will be tough. However, I suggest you pick them over an Aberdeen player. With a new manager and exciting signings they have expectation thrust upon them once more and are therefore likely to finish near the bottom (please note Duguid cannot be blamed for thrusting this expectation on them as, due to his aforementioned erectile dysfunction issues (we're still running with these, then- Ed) he cannot get a boner and therefore cannot thrust)".

Brucey:
A broken collarbone has hindered Bruce's attempts at selection of his team (and wanking), but the reigning champion is expected to challenge for honours once again. His thoughts ahead of the new campaign:
"I'm hoping for another competitive season. Obviously me and Seaniekins are the big two (that's what she said!- Ed) but many others could challenge if they have the ambition, instead of battling for a bottom 6 place and crying about not getting prize money for it. I'm glad it's a clean, debt free league now that Bryan has paid his dues. All the best for the season, lads".

Pud:
Last season's runner-up, and a previous winner, will be confident of another strong challenge for the title this season. This is what he's got to say for himself:
"I am hoping to have another strong season, although that will be difficult with the number of new teams added to the league in the much needed expansion. I believe myself and Brucey the past winners have the know how to win this league and this might be the deciding factor again. Although with just under 24 hours to go I still can't pick a settled side so I'm not as confident of starting off well. I am glad to see Bryan Shepherd FC has come out of administration, with the help of his new sponsors, Wonga. All the best to all the teams this year and may you guys challenge well but ultimately fail to beat me".

Bryan:
Fucked if I know. Bryan will be doing well to avoid the wooden spoon. Across his arse. Actually, he might like that

Me:


Well, I'd better share my thoughts with y'all, then. I've not had the best of times in this league, but all that will (maybe) change this year. I'm expecting surprises in the SPFL this season, particularly from Partick Thistle. Expect to see high-scoring games involving a number of sides, mostly because some sides (I'm looking at you, Hibs & St Mirren) have defences that look utterly dreadful on paper, while some sides (particularly Dundee United) look irresistible going forward (no David Goodwillie jokes- Ed). All the best  to all involved, especially the new lads, who I'm sure will be a welcome addition to the league.

Honourable mentions, too, to G-Ham, Dave, and the new lads such as Burns & Jamie. Let's have a good season, chaps

BELIEVE IN THE SHIELD!

Monday 22 July 2013

Not Quite the Return You Might Have Expected

I'm back, folks!

This evening's entry, as the title suggests, won't quite be the usual football betting predictions you've become used to from me. Instead, I'm going to be writing about an altogether more controversial issue- the attempts by David Cameron to crack down on access to pornography.

Personally, I am strongly opposed to any attempts by any government to censor any part of the internet, no matter how abhorrent it may be. The internet is the ultimate free market, where ideas, thoughts and information sources that are popular thrive, and those which are less desirable & popular eventually die (Hiya Myspace! Hey there Bebo! You still there Napster?). If nobody wants to view pornography, it'll die out. Expect to hear words like "abhorrent" and "vulgar" used by Cameron to describe the sort of material he wants to see banned. That's all well and good, David, and I'm not denying that there's material out there that could be described in such a way, but these are subjective terms- one person's definition of abhorrent and vulgar material is going to be different from another's. I'm listening to some particularly heavy rock music while writing this which some people might consider abhorrent or vulgar, yet I find it perfectly acceptable, and it's perfectly legal. I find it abhorrent and vulgar to have a paid lobbyist for the tobacco industry, Lynton Crosby, advising the government on tobacco policy, yet David Cameron finds this perfectly acceptable.

It's not the job of the government to censor the internet for us- we do that for ourselves. We read the news sites we want to see and about the subjects that interest us. We watch the videos to see and listen to the podcasts we want to hear. The stuff that doesn't interest us, we just ignore, which is what the vast majority of us do regarding the small smattering of illegal material (the stuff that we can all agree is abhorrent and vulgar) that we're told is out there. It's the same in our "offline" lives- yes, there's a liquor shop on the way home, a drug dealer on that street corner, a "sauna" 2 streets away, but we exhibit self-discipline and judgement over whether or not to consume these things. We don't need the government putting filters on in order to achieve that same self-censorship when online.

Questions also need to be asked of the filters themselves. For one, the technology that Cameron speaks of already exists; it just needs to be activated by the end user- it isn't even that hard to do, even for those not so technically literate. There are, however, 2 main problems with these filters. Firstly, they're not perfect- many perfectly legitimate, legal websites are currently blocked out by them. This is mainly a technical issue with the way the filters are set up: in layman's terms, when you build a website, you put things called "Metatags" on the pages, so that filters and search engines can see what is on them, so that when the end user searches for the Meta term, the website is picked up and returned as a possible result. Some writers (and I include myself in this) may lack the time or knowledge when composing their (perfectly legal) sites to put these in, so if the filter does not see any Metatags it recognises as being legitimate, it defaults to blocking the site, something I have personal experience with thanks to a period of previous employment with an ISP. Secondly, in a world where many children are more computer literate than their parents, there's a risk that these filters will be disabled as soon as the parents' back is turned- hardly convenient for a policy that's clearly being designed/cobbled together with the protection of children in mind.

Of course those who peddle anything illegal should be punished. But let's not restrict the freedoms of the internet for the rest of us just to drive out a small minority

Saturday 27 April 2013

Weekend Betting 27th-28th April

Yoo-hoo! Me again! With the end of the season approaching, I suppose I'd better furnish y'all with some tips:

  • Manchester City at home to West Ham does look a home banker, and indeed it really should be. West Ham have now cleared the magical 40 point mark which usually guarantees safety from relegation (and should again be the case this season), plus their 3-4-10 away record this season means there's little reason to fancy them to take anything from this one- indeed, city are potent enough going forward at home (averaging 2.25 goals at home in the league this season) to cover a handicap. Take city -1 goal at 5/6 with Skybet
  • Having made a prediction for the 12:45 kickoff- I'd better get a move on with the rest of these tips. Elsewhere in the Premier League, Everton (10-6-1 at home) should polish off an on-the-beach-and-safe Fulham- Hills will give you 8/15 on the Toffees
  • It's the last day of the season in League 1 today, a league that I personally have hade plenty of success betting on. It's only fair, then, that I share with y'all my tip for today from that league. Bournemouth and Tranmere have gone in opposite directions in the 2nd half of the season- while Tranmere have fallen from title chasers all the way down to their current 11th (their last 16 games: W3, D1, L12), Bournemouth under Eddie Howe have stormed up the league, winning 13 of their last 18. Another win for Bournemouth (who have won their last 8, while Tranmere have lost their last 5) will see the Cherries take the League 1 title. Get on them at the generally available 4/5
  • Delving a little deeper into the leagues, there's a couple of teams to be fancied in the Scottish 3rd Division. Berwick can effectively confirm their play-off place by beating Annan (4/7 with Coral), while Peterhead should continue their recent excellent form, which has helped them up to 2nd place in the league, by beating Clyde at Balmoor (2/5 general)
  • More media coverage of the Bundesliga! After the midweek exploits of Bayern & Dortmund, I'm going to be tipping 3rd place Bayer Leverkusen to beat Werder Bremen. Leverkusen are in good form (only the 2 aforementioned Bundesligasuperpowers (in German, that is all 1 word) have beaten them at the BayArena this season), while Bremen are in a horrible mess right now- no win in their last 9, and with 2 key attackers (Marko Arnautovic & Eljero Elia) both suspended by the club having been caught speeding. With their defence is as abysmal as ever (no clean sheets away from home all season), all the signs point to a Leverkusen win (4/9 general), with enough in hand to cover a -1 handicap (Evens with Stan James)
And if your ass ain't down with that, I got 2 words for ya:

SUCK IT!